Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Fourth in a 10-part series

Editor's Note: For many people and in many ways, today is a solemn day. And tomorrow we dive back into the most controversial and serious of topics ever covered by Batter's Box, the "White Jays" issue. So today, forgive us as we move ahead with a light-hearted, sometimes tongue-in-cheek look at that other most serious of topics: sabermetrics.

Mark Twain once wrote, "There's three kinds of lies. Them's lies, damned lies ... and statistics." And if you didn't know, ol' Sam Clemens made his name as a writer in the newspaper business. So you have to figure he knew what he was talking about, hey?

Anyway, the titanic clash between sabermetric believers -- those Rich Griffin has tagged "the Zombie-Like Cult" -- and the "baseball guys" championed by Hall of Famer Joe Morgan and his old-school cronies may never reach the pop-culture status of, say, a hit Broadway musical.

Then again ...

Set the scene: Stats Side Story, Act 1, Scene 4.

The players: Enter stage left, J.P. Ricciardi, shadowed by Bill James and their gang, The SABR-rattlers. Enter stage right, Rich Griffin, Geoff Baker and their gang, The Old School.

Cue finger-snapping and music. Ricciardi takes center stage in the continuation of his macabre dance with Griffin and the others.

JP: (Spoken) Against the Yankees, we need every Stat we got.
GRIFFIN: (Spoken) Stats don't win pennants, boy.
JP: Cut it, Griff, man. Bill J and Billy B and me started the Stats.
BAKER: (Spoken) Well, the Stats, like they ain't won nothin' in Oak-town.
JP: Who wouldn't wanna rely on the Stats?

[sings]
When you're a Jay,
You're a Jay all the way
More than just ERA
Gets you to Openin' Day

When you're a Jay,
Well, just ignore all the fans
We want ERA-plus
And OBP, man!

It's sabermetrics ... alone,
We're never disconnected!
At home, on the road
Online, stats can be projected
Won't walk? You're rejected!

CUT!!!

Okay, like we said ... it'll never be a hit musical. In fact, we've calculated the exact statistical likelihood of that happening as falling somewhere between the odds of Alfonso Soriano breaking Barry Bonds' single-season record (for walks, not home runs) and the odds that the Cubs and Red Sox will both win the World Series ... this year.

Without rehashing the entire argument, which is a litany of frustration for both schools of thought, not too long ago, Baker and Griffin each wrote what were perceived as anti-sabermetric screeds -- on the same day, no less.

Conspiracy theories ran amok, and for the most part, to be painfully introspective, the reactions of Boxers generally consisted of a minor flame war of put-downs, insults and the very occasional "We know you are, but what are we?"-type posts.

Before we get back into the fray, step back for a moment, take a deep breath and enter the Twilight Zone that is reality, should you choose to accept it. Richard Griffin, whose name is permanently etched on an award displayed in Baseball's Hall of Fame, partially made his reputation in the game as one of the first front office guys to assist a GM in arbitration hearings by developing a performance-based analytical stats system.

Richard Griffin, Statistics Guy
When Griffin headed off to Concordia to pursue his basketball dreams, his skill with and love of numbers led him to choose an appropriate major -- accounting. "I hated it," he says, "and [so I] decided to apply with the Expos as a statistics guy."

Go back and read that again. Richard Griffin, Statistics Guy. "I kept detailed stats in a unique 10-column system that I invented myself," he recalls. "Even before computer stats were in vogue. My friends called me a geek. Jim Fanning and John McHale used my stats in arbitration" he says.

And Griffin the proto-stats-geek easily remembers the system he developed in detail. "The 10 columns [in my spreadsheet] were inning-outs-runners' positions-score-count-how the ball was
hit-direction-result-runners' bases advanced-good decision or not," he says. "I kept these for all 162 games by myself, [both] live and off the radio."

But don't think for a minute that the "new Griffin," the one writing for the Star rather than battling Tim Foli and Steve Rogers in front of an arbitrator, doesn't understand or pay attention to the "new" stats that Jamesian Logic has brought to the Great Game.

"In fact," says Griffin, "the recent emphasis on OPS ... has already significantly changed my way of looking at stats, and the scrutiny of the readers with regard to stats has made me be more careful on deadline in using numbers off the top of my head."

Besides, Griffin says, sometimes a statistical cigar is not just a cigar.

"I believe that there is a difference [between] 100 Barry Bonds walks and 100 Rickey Henderson walks," he says. And who can argue? A Henderson walk, in the speedster's heydey, was usually the equivalent of a double or perhaps even a triple. A Bonds walk these days isn't a negative on its face, but it takes away the possibility -- and, frankly, the potential entertainment value -- of a "splash hit" into McCovey Cove.

Still, Griffin's linguistic portrayals of the stereotypical sabermetrician have been ... well, less than flattering. Without even getting into his comparison of Billy Beane to William Shatner at a Star Trek Convention, consider this:

They are mathematicians fascinated by the challenge in charting the daily changes of baseball statistics. Most of them play some form of fantasy ball ...

Why do baseball traditionalists dislike them so? If a roomful of sabermetricians got together to watch the sappy baseball movie, Field of Dreams, they would emerge debating the relative OPS of Moonlight Graham and Shoeless Joe Jackson. In general, they miss the point.

SABR has admittedly contributed many legitimate new ways of looking at statistics, but like most cults, one who disagrees with their beliefs is considered inferior. No tolerance.


Good Morning, Geoff. I'm Afraid I Can't Do That, Geoff
Baker is a generation younger than Griffin -- he was born the same year HAL scared the living bejeezers out of North American theatre-goers by making them think it was possible that computers might take over our lives.

Three decades later, albeit in a very different way, that scenario may be playing out for baseball writers. "The Internet leads to the type of statistical analysis that wasn't always possible as quickly beforehand," says Baker.

However, that same preponderance of facts and stats makes playing "devil's advocate" somewhat easier, says Baker -- and that's where the role of "beat writer as research scientist," discussed yesterday, pays off.

"We are constantly analyzing numbers and trying to see if the accepted wisdom of the day is wise at all," says Baker. Bluntly, he continues, "Most of the time, it isn't. As a paper, it's our job to spot these trends and point them out before our competitors do, [while] at the same time allowing for enough of a sample size for the stats to mean anything."

One part of that analysis is provided by the sabermetric approach, Baker admits. "We're learning more about sabermetrics every day," he says, "and I find it a very fascinating way to reconsider certain accepted truths about baseball."

In fact, he says, "I have no problem with what Ricciardi has done with the offence -- boring as it may be to see a multitude of walks at times -- because it is succeeding. My criticism [has been] about the Jays modeling themselves after the Oakland A's, a team that stats show to be winning not because of sabermetrics and a Moneyball offence but because of three Cy Young contending pitchers."

Of course, with Roger Clemens, Esteban Loiaza and Roy Halladay in Toronto ... oh, never mind.

"I have no doubt the Jays would win the AL East with Roy Halladay, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson in the rotation," says Baker. "Just like Arizona won the World Series with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. The Jays have yet to explain to anyone how they plan to go about landing their own Cy Young contenders beyond Halladay."

Until that happens, he says, "I remain highly skeptical about whether they can succeed the way Billy Beane has unless [the team] spends more money on the mound. So far, they haven't come close to the A's in the standings, despite a much better offence."

Cue the big finale: Chorus rendition of "Hey, Officer Epstein" and "I Feel Patient" ending with Ricciardi's epic solo, "Tonight, Tonight (We're Gonna Win Tonight)" ...

Next: White Jays Revisited
Hey ... Are These Guys Stat Geeks? | 58 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike D - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#33254) #
Outstanding, Mick. You're the best lyricist in "A-me-ri-ca."
_Shrike - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#33255) #
I have to say I concur completely with Baker's last observation about the dire need for the Jays to develop *very good* pitching (not merely back-end of the rotation filler). It was a topic Gitz and I have discussed at length when we went to see the Mariners host the Red Sox earlier this summer. (And further since then due to the wonders of modern technology)
_Andrew Edwards - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#33256) #
I remain highly skeptical about whether they can succeed the way Billy Beane has unless [the team] spends more money on the mound.

Except, obviously, the A's haven't spent too much money on the mound. They've developped talent, and then signed them at discount prices.

Obviously pitching talent doesn't evolve overnight - that's why JP keeps talking about 2005.

So offensively, I think Riccardi pretty obviously gets at least a B+, if not an A. And the worst grade you can give him pitching-wise is an "incomplete" - a mark that he'd give himself.

So why the harsh judgement?
_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#33257) #
I'm starting to get tangled up in the reasoning here. And it isn't just Baker's reasoning:

""I have no problem with what Ricciardi has done with the offence -- boring as it may be to see a multitude of walks at times -- because it is succeeding. My criticism [has been] about the Jays modeling themselves after the Oakland A's, a team that stats show to be winning not because of sabermetrics and a Moneyball offence but because of three Cy Young contending pitchers." [...] "I remain highly skeptical about whether they can succeed the way Billy Beane has unless [the team] spends more money on the mound. So far, they haven't come close to the A's in the standings, despite a much better offence."

So:
- the A's are winning because of their great pitching, but in spite of a mediocre offense that doesn't match their sabremetric theories
- the Jays have a highly effective offense that matches their sabremetric theories, but don't yet have all the pitching they'd like
- therefore the Jays are modeling themselves after the A's
- and they're doing it wrong
- and need to spend money to get out of this fix that they're in

Is that about right? This is not a slam at Baker; this is frustration at encountering this reasoning all over the place. The implication seems to be that Ricciardi is gullible for believing that this OBP stuff can ever help anybody; Beane just talks about it because it looks good in print, and it's still pitching that wins, because baseball is 90% pitching, but Ricciardi's too much of a rube to know it.

Feh.

The debunking of the above is left as an exercise for the reader.

Not a lot to chew on in this section of the interview.

his comparison of Billy Beane to William Shatner at a Star Trek Convention

Actually, this was one part of Griffin's SABR column that I was pretty sure he had gotten right. That's exactly how I'd expect a segment of the fanbase to treat Beane.

I liked 'SABR-rattlers'.
Gerry - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#33258) #
The Jays have yet to explain to anyone how they plan to go about landing their own Cy Young contenders beyond Halladay.

I thought JP had done a good job of this. He has told us that other teams do not want to trade their star pitching prospects so you have to develop your own. So the Jays have drafted pitcher after pitcher in the last two drafts to try and find some gold. That is also why JP says look to 2005 or 2006 for the Jays to contend.

Oakland developed their own pitching. Minnesota developed their own. KC are doing it. Big budget teams can sign established pitchers, low budget teams cannot.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#33259) #
"We are constantly analyzing numbers and trying to see if the accepted wisdom of the day is wise at all," says Baker. Bluntly, he continues, "Most of the time, it isn't. As a paper, it's our job to spot these trends and point them out before our competitors do, [while] at the same time allowing for enough of a sample size for the stats to mean anything."

Could someone please link to where Baker or other Toronto Star writers have done this?

"I have no doubt the Jays would win the AL East with Roy Halladay, Barry Zito and Tim Hudson in the rotation," says Baker. "Just like Arizona won the World Series with Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. The Jays have yet to explain to anyone how they plan to go about landing their own Cy Young contenders beyond Halladay."

There's more than one way to build a contender.

1) The Red Sox have one really good pitcher and a bullpen that has the potential to be good but hasn't been. They have a fantastic offense and I wonder how influential Bill James has been there (Millar, Walker, Mueller all strike me as quintessential James-type players). They are in contention.

2) Last year's World Series participants had starting rotations that could generously be described as average. They had one good starter each (Schmidt, Washburn) and a bunch of guys that were okay. The Angels had one of the best bullpens in recent years (bringing to mind the 1990 Reds who had one great starter and a very deep bullpen). The Giants had the best offence in the NL and the Angels offense didn't have many holes, though they were hitting over their heads.

3) The Bash Brother Oakland A's started out with only a decent starting rotation and got worse. Stewart wasn't a great pitcher but he was an innings eater; the park made their picthers look a lot better than they actually were. That team had a great offense and a very good bullpen.

4) The Big Red Machine of the 70s had the best offense adjusted for league and park post WW2. They had one really good starter (Gullett) and a fairly good bullpen.

I'm not saying a strong starting rotation isn't a huge benefit, but not having 3 Cy Young candidates in the rotation does not preclude a team from winning the World Series. Developing a high-quality bullpen (in theory, not very expensive) adding a bat and one decent starter would likely propell the Jays into the 95 win area: they aren't that far away.

"The Jays have yet to explain to anyone how they plan to go about landing their own Cy Young contenders beyond Halladay."

J.P. has stated quite clearly that his goal is to develop quality arms in the farm, to eventually have a very deep pitching staff.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#33260) #
"A Henderson walk, in the speedster's heyday, was usually the equivalent of a double or perhaps even a triple." In his heyday, 82-83, Henderson stole 238 bases and was caught 61 times. Henderson did try to steal most of the time that he reached base, and was succesful a little less than 80 per cent of the time.

You don't have to be a stats geek to realize that those 61 caught stealings were very important, and that it is arguable whether Rickey contributed much with his base-stealing at that point in his career (he was actually more effective later in his career, when he tried a little less). You also don't have to be a stats geek to realize that a walk and a stolen base is hardly the equivalent of a double (when there is a runner on third and two out, for instance).

It seems to me that part of the problem is that Richard Griffin confuses the aesthetic of the game with its analysis. It is possible to notice from an aesthetic perspective that Robbie Alomar in his time in Toronto made beautiful diving defensive plays, but bailed out on the DP, and still think about whether he was, on the whole, a good defensive second baseman. But, to say that he was on the whole a good defensive second baseman because he made some amazingly acrobatic plays just isn't true.

So, yes, it was exciting when Rickey drew a walk in 82-83. But, it doesn't mean that a Rickey walk in 82-83 had anything like the value of a Barry Bonds double in 2003.

I'm glad to read that he and Geoff Baker are studying the statistics of the game more closely. And if either wants to rhapsodize about the game, from a non-analytical perspective from time to time (my favorite topics- watching Roberto Clemente throw or Tim Raines leg out a triple or Andres Gallarraga's swing when he was obviously up late with a newborn child), I for one won't complain.
_Mick - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#33261) #
You all know I'm a New York guy, but having spent most of my growing-up time in Ohio, Robert, I must take exception to two assertions you make here about different generations of Reds teams:

... bringing to mind the 1990 Reds who had one great starter and a very deep bullpen

Are you referring to Jose Rijo? Although the clearly the most talented (if constantly injured) of that staff, the workhorse ace was Tom Browning, a personal favorite of mine. To lump him in as essentially a Rijo-ette is at best unfair. And incidentally, it was a Red -- but neither of the above -- who started the All-Star Game, Jack Armstrong, and the best pitcher on the team that year -- call him a Nasty Boy, but he made 16 starts, all in the second half -- was Norm Charlton.

The Big Red Machine of the '70s had ... one really good starter(Gullett) and a fairly good bullpen.

Gullett threw a total of less than 290 innings over the 1975-76 heydey of the BRM. Gary Nolan was the nominal ace of those teams, 15-9 both seasons and above-average ERA+. Fred Norman and Jack Billingham were both decent mid-rotation guys who contributed more than Gullett did. Pat Zachry, though he did not pan out in the long term, was unbelieveable in 1976 (and in part brought the Reds Tom Seaver two years later).

So I think again you're being a little unfair, or perhaps remembering a little less than clearly, in pegging Gullett as the top starter on that staff, though like Rijo, he was clearly the most talented. As for the "fairly good" bullpen, well, apologies to Myers, Dibble, Charlton and Birtsas, but I'll take McEnaney, Eastwick, Carroll and Borbon any day.

I have not run any statistical analyses to back up that last point. :-)
_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#33262) #
"The 10 columns [in my spreadsheet] were inning-outs-runners' positions-score-count-how the ball was
hit-direction-result-runners' bases advanced-good decision or not,"


What do we think of this? Anything missing here? I assume 'batter's identity' and 'pitcher's identity' are two other columns. And from there you could get into the lefty-righty stuff if you were of a mind to. And of course you'd need to have a miscellaneous column for balks and whatnot. What's the 'good decision' refer to?
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#33263) #
I was thinking of quality innings. Nevertheless, the Reds of the mid-70s didn't have a great rotation; neither did the 1990 Reds - Browning not being my idea of a Cy Young candidate (sorry).

Yes, I think the BRM did have a very good bullpen, I wouldn't take it over the Nasty Boys, though.

Neither team was built like the "Baker" model of championship baseball.
Craig B - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#33264) #
Mike, one important point about the CS% for Rickey is that this was in the Oakland Coliseum, where flyballs go to die. When Rickey stole 130 bases and was caught 42 times in '82, he was only 75.5% successful but only three guys on that team had a SLG% of over .400 and scoring in general was 10% less than it is today.

Still, you are right in general. All of Rickey's stolen bases in his salad days just don't have the impact that another 10 home runs a year would.

It's a shame that Rickey's time with the Yankees coinided with the era when the Yankees were nothing and everyone drooled over the Mets. I have never seen a baserunner more dominant than Rickey was in those days, and I'd select that as his "heyday".
_Matthew Elmslie - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#33265) #
Actually, you know who Oakland is built like? They're like the Braves from, like, '94 up to '02. And both teams are famous for not having had as much postseason success as a lot of people think they should have. Hmm...
Craig B - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#33266) #
"The Yankees were nothing" is totally misleading; those Yankees squads were excellent. But they weren't the center of attention; the baseball world was completely apathetic about the Yankees in those days.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#33267) #
I checked my Total Baseball - Browning put up a lot of innings but his ERA+ was around 100 nearly every year. And that fits in with my thesis: you can put together a really good team if you have a really offence, a deep bullpen, 1 guy who can give you quality innings, another who can give you a boatload of average innings and 3 guys who can fight the league to a standstill.

I think that's what the Jays were thinking: that Doc would give you quality and quantity, Lidle would give you 200 average to above average innings, Stutze would give you innings and the other guys would survive. Lidle and Sturtze were a disappointment, but the idea was there.

Realistically, the Jays starting staff and offence aren't that far away from the model I suggest. The bullpen is VERY far away. This needs to be a priority in the off-season.
_Jacko - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#33268) #

Actually, you know who Oakland is built like? They're like the Braves from, like, '94 up to '02. And both teams are famous for not having had as much postseason success as a lot of people think they should have. Hmm...


Meanwhile, the Braves have morphed into the mid-80's A's. Fearsome offense, and ok pitching. Come to think of it, kind of like the early 90's Jays as well.

jc
_Mick - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#33269) #
Well, I think my well-disguised point was not that Browning was a Hall of Famer, but that Gullett and Rijo were simply not as huge contributors to those teams as most people seem to remember.

They were both vastly talented, and they were both hurt ALL the time. True, Rijo was the WS MVP, but Gullett was knocked around pretty good in the '75 series though he was quite good in the '76 post-season.

But the BRM won two World Series because their everyday lineup had four Hall of Famers (Rose, Bench, Morgan, Perez), three genuine All-Stars (Foster, Concepcion, Griffey) and a Gold-Glove .300-hitting eight-hole CF (Geronimo). I trust nobody is going to claim the Jays are going to go THAT route.

As for the '90 Reds, as much as I enjoyed their wire-to-wire championship, it was an anomaly bookended by 75-87 and 74-88 seasons. I look at their roster again and, good lord, for the life of me can't figure out how they won. Maybe it was Kingston, Jamaica's Rolando Roomes.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#33270) #
I agree with Robert Dudek generally. I specifically agree with JP's approach of developing his starting pitching from within. There is no other viable financial alternative that I can see.

However, it is a fact that most teams that are very good over a five year span or longer have fairly good starting pitching at least: the Yankees, As and Braves of today, the Blue Jays of 85-93, the Red Sox 86-91 (mostly concentrated in the hands of Roger); the Cardinals of 82-87; the Yankees of the late 70s; the As of the early 70s; the Orioles 66-71; the Dodgers of the early 60s. It's very hard to sustain success with offence and relief pitching alone.

JP's challenge is to create a defensive context (like the Cardinals did) where average pitchers can succeed because Roy Halladay cannot carry the rotation the way Roger Clemens did for Boston from 86-91. He simply does not have the money to create an offence that will be far and away the best in the league, as the Big Red Machine was, or the Red Sox of today are. The Red Sox payroll for their offensive players alone, notwithstanding the brilliant and cheap acquisitions of Mueller and Ortiz, is about $60 million. That's not going to happen here.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#33271) #
As for the '90 Reds, as much as I enjoyed their wire-to-wire championship, it was an anomaly bookended by 75-87 and 74-88 seasons. I look at their roster again and, good lord, for the life of me can't figure out how they won. Maybe it was Kingston, Jamaica's Rolando Roomes.

The same will be said about the '02 Angels by future generations.

The salient point here being that an average team isn't ever far away from potential contention.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#33272) #
Mike,

I don't see the 82-87 Cardinals as having a strong starting staff. They had a very good defence - that's true - and their relief pitching was pretty good.
_Rich - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#33273) #
The fact that Baker and Griffin claim to pay attention to the numbers isn't good enough. The point is to sort out which numbers are the more meaningful ones, and this is the real contribution of Sabremetrics. There's no shortage of evidence that a pitchers K/BB ratio or a young hitter's OBP are better indicators of future success than wins or batting average. What the Jays front office understands is that intelligent people have been studying these issues for a long time, and that there is valuable knowledgeable to be gained in this area.

Obviously there are many successful players who don't meet the statistical profile outlined by Sabremetric research, but as Jeff Blair explained when looking at the Jays draft strategy, the element of risk assessment is critical here. Why doesn't the Star ever write about that?
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#33274) #
"JP's challenge is to create a defensive context (like the Cardinals did) where average pitchers can succeed because Roy Halladay cannot carry the rotation the way Roger Clemens did for Boston from 86-91."

Well, it's likely that Doc can't do what Clemens did in Boston, but there's certainly a chance that he can. He may be able to pitch more innings over the next 3-4 years than anyone else in baseball and his ERA, when adjusted for park, is already among the league's best.

It's unlikely, but it is very possible that he could get better, which would make him of roughly equal value to Clemens in his heyday.

And that '86 team had Bruce Hurst. Imagine how many games this team would have won with a Bruce Hurst and an above-average bullpen.
_Mick - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#33275) #
Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute.

You dismiss Tom Browning:
Black Ink: Pitching - 4 (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 58 (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 16.0 (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 25.0 (Likely HOFer > 100)

But lust after Bruce Hurst?
Black Ink: Pitching - 3 (Average HOFer ~ 40)
Gray Ink: Pitching - 72 (Average HOFer ~ 185)
HOF Standards: Pitching - 19.0 (Average HOFer ~ 50)
HOF Monitor: Pitching - 24.5 (Likely HOFer > 100)

Aren't they pretty much the same guy?
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#33276) #
Mick,

No. Hurst had fewer innings but better ERA+'es. They are of comparable value though. I'm sure the thought here was that Lidle might have pitched as well as Bruce Hurst and Stutze had the potential to be an innings-eater with an average ERA (like Browning).

Neither of them is a real Cy Young candidate, though.
_Rich - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#33277) #
My criticism [has been] about the Jays modeling themselves after the Oakland A's, a team that stats show to be winning not because of sabermetrics and a Moneyball offence but because of three Cy Young contending pitchers.

Actually, Billy Beane built a very good offence. It's not his fault that he lost 3 of his 6 best hitters:

- Jermaine Dye: annual DL candidate
- Johnny Damon: free-agent
- Jason Giambi: free-agent lost in the no-trade clause fiasco

If there's a valid criticism of Beane that I can think of, it's that he's done a poor job replacing the lost offence with effective low-cost hitters, like Cat or Kielty.

I asked this question to Richard Griffin via email, but I'd like to hear from Baker too: if you don't approve of the Jays approach, what specifically do you propose they do to build a winner on a limited budget? As for finding good pitching to back up Doc, well, others have already said it here, but JP is following exactly what the A's did here (draft lots of college pitchers with good K/BB ratios). I don't think you can blame JP for the fact that he can't make the David Bush and Josh Banks age any faster. JP has said it's too early to criticize his approach until we see if the pitchers he drafts turn into anything. Is this really unreasonable, Mr. Baker? If it is, how do you propose the Jays go about acquiring the Tim Hudsons and Mark Mulders of the world? Please, enlighten us.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#33278) #
Robert,

I suppose you're right. It is possible that Halladay could be as dominant as Clemens was. As I look closer at his numbers this year, it is the ERA that is deceptively high, and it is only partially the park that is to blame. His K/IP ratio is very good and his K/W ratio (over 6/1) is spectacular. But I don't think that he will ever strike out enough batters to be as dominant as Clemens was, unless he has at least average defence behind him. Doc's game is not exclusively the power pitcher's game.

An average defence (instead of this year's below average one) would significantly help Doc reach the Clemens level, as well as creating an environment where average pitchers can succeed.
robertdudek - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#33279) #
Dominant is a descriptive (I would say aesthetic) term. The real question is whether Doc will be as valuable. Roger had great K rates, but his walks were also higher than Doc's. Greg Maddux in his prime was more or less as valuable as Roger was in his.

With all the groundballs Doc throws, all you need to do is make sure your infield defence is strong.
_Billy Beane - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#33280) #
With all the groundballs Doc throws, all you need to do is make sure your infield defence is strong.

Shhh! That's supposed to be a secret.
_Grimlock - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#33281) #

My criticism [has been] about the Jays modeling themselves after the Oakland A's, a team that stats show to be winning not because of sabermetrics and a Moneyball offence but because of three Cy Young contending pitchers.

Actually, Billy Beane built a very good offence.


That's right. The Jason Giambi A's were 2nd and 3rd in runs scored in the AL in 2000 and 2001. While it's true that the Oakland pitching has been outstanding, to say that the "stats show to be winning not because of sabermetrics and a Moneyball offense" ignores the earlier part of this Oakland run, where they could outhit you and outpitch you. And it was the pitching that betrayed them in last year's ALDS. It is true, that they rely more and more on their pitching these days, but it wasn't so long ago that the offense was among the AL's best. Basically, how do you replace a Jason Giambi? It's a question the Jays may well ask next year. How do you replace a Delgado?

Me Grimlock hasn't bought The Star since the White Jays articles. Me Grimlock is VERY interested to see what those two have to say tomorrow.
_Rich - Thursday, September 11 2003 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#33282) #
It ain't all Hudson, Mulder, and Zito, either. In the past 4 seasons, the bullpen has twice ranked in the top 3 in the AL in ERA.
_Lefty - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#33283) #
My only concern with regard of building the starting pitching core from within is that it is essentially a lottery. I believe it will be a long time before another team catches lightening in a bottle like the A's did in Hudson, Zito and Mulder.

The Jays will be extremely lucky to have one of their prospect pitchers perform any where close to those standards of the current A's starting four, with Harden emerging. Hundreds of pitchers drafted by both leagues never come close to this level.

If they get lucky with one, maybe two fit into the 3-4 starting mold they will still need a two starter. To assume more at this stage of of the building program would be folly.

Therefore in my view they need to budget for a true no.2 man now and aquire him next July. As much as I would like wish he was it, I don't think Kelvim will be around for the 05-06 seasons. Too secure the two starter, should be attainable if the Jays are prepared to make a trade, low salary talent for talent. This projection is based on the Jays ability to sign both Carlos and Doc through the 06 campaign. Then at best we'll see.

I do not mean to sound in any way pessimistic but I do believe that pitching and hitting have to be in at least the top five and a bit of luck to win a league championship. Projecting to 06 though fun is still just a projection.
Mike Green - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#33284) #
Lefty,

There just isn't the money to re-sign Doc and Carlos and to acquire a #2 starter at market value. If you're talking about a cheap #2 starter, let's call him Carlos Zambrano, what would be required to acquire him? My guess is way too much.
_Mick - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#33285) #
Author's note:

The White Jays piece will be posted late today, probably after 5:00 Toronto time, due to a series of circumstances that I won't go into here and that have nothing to do with baseball or Da Box.

The White Jays story will be up all weekend, of course, before a new one is posted Monday, so everyone will have plenty ot time to ... react.
_Lefty - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#33286) #
Baltimore trades Ponson for Moss $1.55,000 and Ainsworth $302,000. Each have three yr.s mlb exp. I'm sure they are due for a raise but the starting points from which to increase their respective salaries is at a manageable point. Thats the kind of trade I'm thinking about. The Jays won't be carrying the salaries of F-Cat, Myers, Escobar, and a few others making a million or more like Stutze.

I don't think you can just assume you can't resign your two cogs and then expect to win and the fans to turn out. The team absolutely goes nowhere unless they can get another 20,000 bums in the seats. When fans see something buliding and can taste some glory thats when they trickle back to Sky Dome.
robertdudek - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#33287) #
I think attendance has held up pretty well this year, considering the SARS thing. It's a little bit ahead of last year's. The trickle is already underway - a nice 84 win season this year will encourage the trickle to continue next year.

I'd also be interested in seeing the TV ratings this year compared to last. Anybody know how to get a hold of those?
Dave Till - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#33288) #
It is possible to notice from an aesthetic perspective that Robbie Alomar in his time in Toronto made beautiful diving defensive plays, but bailed out on the DP, and still think about whether he was, on the whole, a good defensive second baseman.

I seem to recall that Alomar used to turn the pivot at the back of the second base bag - basically, the bag was between him and the sliding runner. This cost him some double plays, but it's kept him off the DL: he hasn't had one of those nasty leg injuries that often rob a second baseman of his career.

In his prime, the baserunners Alomar didn't retire were more than offset by the hits Alomar himself picked up. And, obviously, you can't help a team when you're injured.
Mike Green - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#33289) #
Dave, I agree completely. My personal opinion is that Robbie at his peak was an average (or slightly below) average defensive second baseman at his prime, but that he was a terrific offensive player and durable as you point out. Taking the package as a whole, it's pretty clear to me that at his peak, Alomar was one of the top 10-15 second baseman of all time.

My point wasn't that Alomar was a bum, but that in evaluating his defence, you shouldn't carried away by the beauty of some of the plays he made.
_Lefty - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#33290) #
Has anyone ever wondered how much money the re-branding in the form of the new logo brings in club revenue?

Having lived in London, UK over three soccer seasons fans, paricularly perants were go nuts at the start of every new season because the club'c change jersey's and sponsors pretty offtn. It has been clearly proven that new team shirts were to suck money out of the medium and hard core fans pocket. It is significant part of a teams revenue structure.

It would be pretty tough to convince me the new logo is only about style and image.
_Ryan - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#33291) #
Toronto won't get much out of it. Revenue from merchandise is shared equally among all 30 clubs. The Yankees will get as much from the new logo as the Jays will.
_Lefty - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#33292) #
Thanks for that Ryan. I stand convinced. Man I've got to get my fingers to hit the keys in the right sequence.
Mike D - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#33293) #
There is simply no way Alomar was below average "at his peak" as a second baseman. He played on turf and next to a first baseman with fantastic, almost unprecedented range -- Range Factor is a grossly oversimplified way of assessing Alomar's defence.

Isn't Alomar's steadiness with his glove meaningful? Fine, so errors are subjective. But it says something that he committed five or fewer errors three times as a Blue Jay -- that's remarkable for a middle infielder.

Aren't contemporary subjective assessments of his ability at least somewhat probative? He has ten Gold Gloves. Was it all a grand conspiracy to unjustly elevate a defender that was "below average" "at his peak"?

There is no conclusive defensive metric, and you have to evaluate defense at least in part with your eyes. "Below Average" only applies to Alomar in any category since the advent of his Mets days.

Below average? Sorry to be so comabtive about this, but that's simply Range Factor Revisionism at its worst.
Mike D - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#33294) #
Sorry, you said "in his prime," not "at his peak." But my argument remains.
_okbluejays - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#33295) #
Robbie Alomar average or slightly below average defensively? Look, I love numbers and statistical analysis as much as anyone, but at the risk of sounding ignorant I would look very skeptically upon any number that rates Alomar along those lines. I know of the difficulties of statistical analysis when it comes to defence, but I would still like to see what you are basing your opinion on. I know that Rob Neyer has spoken of this issue, and I even think he referred to it as the "Alomar problem". His point was that "everybody knew" that Alomar was a premiere defensive 2B, and until stats bear that out, they won't be taken seriously.

I and my dad were part owners in season tickets from 1980 to 1993, and I watched baseball on TV a lot during this time and after. I have always maintained that Alomar is one of the best defensive players I have ever seen. I have never resorted to numbers to back up what my eyes "proved" to me beyond a shadow of a doubt. Perhaps I am one of the people you speak of who is blinded by the flashy plays he made. They certainly count for something, but perhaps I overvalue them, perhaps not.

It is a lot of fun to use statistics to debunk commonly held beliefs. There's a certain "holier than thou attitude" that has inherent appeal for some statheads. I am not accusing anyone of this here - indeed, I rely on stats heavily when analyzing baseball players myself, and I think the quality of well thought out discussion is very high on this page. I'm sure I will get a first hand example of this intelligent analysis in response to my post. Let me say that I think that these sorts of statistical analyses are critical for the evolution of the game in general, and for the success of the Jays in particular. But Alomar an average or slightly below average defensive 2B? I don't think so.

I'll go put my head back in the sand now...
_okbluejays - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#33296) #
Mike D, I started writing my response before you posted. I'm with you 100%
Craig B - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#33297) #
All I know is, he doesn't make a lot of plays up the middle, and never did. *Hudson* is better at making up-the-middle plays than Alomar was.

Alomar is, unquestionably, the best second baseman I have ever seen at going to his left. Why that didn't drive him to play more to his right I will never understand... as his career went along, he seemed to creep even further back and to his left, making his spectacular range there even less useful.

Maybe it's just me. I always had a bee in my bonnet with Alomar for some reason, so I may have been exaggerating his faults.
_benum - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#33298) #
Craig: You wear a bonnet? What colour is it?
Gitz - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#33299) #
Craig, I'm a bit worried: I'm starting to agree with you more and more.
_Kris - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#33300) #
There are some good arguements here for what JP is doing and what needs to happen in the future. No one can argue the success the Jay's offence has had and they have some potential offensive gems in the minors. The pitching is not even close to being there at first glance. The Jays say the will continue to rely on drafting college pitchers yet the last 2 drafts there first round picks have been middle infielders.Jason Arnold woulndt make a top 20 pitching prospect list so where is this Halladay type starter going to come from?? David Bush had a great year but he projects as either a 4 or 5 or a bullpen guy, Magowan might be that guy but its still too early and Perkins, League etc have a long ways to go. We havent even begun to look at the bullpen yet. Oakland landed Zito, Hudsona and Mulder thats why they are where they are but realistically the Jay's have a great farm system but they will need to find some pitching elsewher. Joe Blanton would have been that guy, and JP blew it by asking way too much for Escobar, Bordick, Cat before and after the trade deadline without waivers. Boston has Pedro, Derek Lowe is very solid, Wakefield has been solid thats 3 solid starters. If we rely on Josh Towers competing for a 4 or 5 spot then next year we will be looking agin to 2005.
robertdudek - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#33301) #
We don't necessarily need another Halladay-type starter. We need some Bruce Hurst types.
_Kris - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#33302) #
I think we might have a few #2 or 3 starters like Magowan, Bush, Arnold etc. Say these are the Hurst types. Debuts by 2005 productive by 2006. Most, not all young pitchers go through the usual growing pains so we are still looking at 2006 to develope our own quality starters. Jeremy Bonderman would rank #1 in the Jays system and he is having a tough learning curve as a starter this year. In fact the highest rated pitchers in the minors are 90% guys who were drafted out of high school not college and even on the Jays Magowan projects to be the best and he was a high school pitcher. I still think trading offence or an outfield prospect might get that pitching sooner as obviously the Jays offence is ready now. For me draft pics as compensation for losing Escobar, and losing Bordick and Cat but getting nothing just dosent cut it. I have used Baltimore as an example but look what they got for Conine and Ponson. Ainsworth would be our #2 next year and Moss plus the prospects would help.
Gitz - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#33303) #
I'd like to re-state my objection to Damian Moss and Kurt Ainsworth. Until Moss learns control, he's never going to be a valuable major-league pitcher. I compared him to Jason Bere at the time of the trade, and I will do so again here: he may have one good year when he -- shudder -- gets lucky that balls in play don't drop as hits, but he'll be out of the league until he can figure out the strike zone.

Ainsworth? He's lucky he hasn't suffered Foppert's fate. So far. I remain skeptical of his long-term prognosis, not because of lack of talent, but because the Giants have an abysmal record of developing pitchers.

Even if Ponson bolts, I make this trade again and again if I'm Brian Sabean.
_Kris - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#33304) #
To further look at the Oakland A's lets look at how the acquired the reason they are always competing, pitching. Mulder was I believe the #2 pick overall in the draft, hence he was projected to be an above average big league pitcher not a college sleeper. By most accounts Billy Beane wanted Ben Sheets not Zito so a bit of lucked helped there and Hudson was a steal but not even Oakland would have predicted that one. Now Oaklands offence is suffering and all of those drafts have yet to replace Giambi, Damon etc. The "MoneyBall" draft has 2 player in Blanton and Swished who project to be average to better than average big leaguers and Swisher stunk in Double A. Beane has traded Bonderman, German, Pena, Cotts, Olivio, Harang and Valentine in deals but once he loses the big 3 pitchers or Chavez and Tejada we will see where Oakland is. Meanwhile Seattle has lost Arod, Griffey, Johnson yet always competes and has a loaded farm sytem of arms. I think the jury is still out for a few years on JP and Jays right now.
_Kris - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#33305) #
I would make the trade too if I was Sabean but my point was at least Baltimore is taking a chance on one of those arms turning into more which we cant say the same here. One of the Boston papers reported that the Jays were offered Fossum for Escobar. Why not do that deal considering you can still attempt to sign Escobar at the end of the year? I think I just would have liked to have seen us get a young arm and then try and sign Escobar. Fossum and Escobar would be great for next year. Same with Lilly.
_Lefty - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#33306) #
Kris,
I think you've cracked it in your previous posts. The Jays WILL have creatively aqquire some arms. In order for the pitching to compliment an offense that looks be competitive for the coming couple of years.
Gitz is right about Moss and Ainsworth at this stage of their young careers but as long as their arms don't fall off they still have a chance to be competitive pitchers. Certainly not Halladays or Hudsons but competent medium cost pitchers over both the short and medium term. So I think the juries still out.
The Jays do have the resources to go out and get such pitchers but it is made more difficult by the fact that they need to be at that stage in their career where they are performance and cost competitive. Thats why I threw out the Moss, Ainsworth example. Not that I think they are ever going to be Zito.
I still stand by my earlier assertion that the Jays chances of developing over the next 2-4 yr.s %25 of what Oakland was lucky enough to get is slim to none.
robertdudek - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#33307) #
Is there any reason to believe that Josh Towers, David Bush, Jason Arnold and Vinny Chulk will not be competetnt pitchers? I don't see Moss and Ainsworth as being any better than those guys. In fact I'd take Bush as the guy with the most potential of all of them. Then there's McGowan, who could be great, as well as League, Perkins, and several guys from this year's draft.

There's no shortange of decent arms - the only question is how many of them will develop into Hurst types (or better), if any. Only time will tell.

Comparing Bonderman to our pitching prospects is highly misleading. Jeremy is very very young so his struggles at the majors are no surprise. God only knows why the Tigers started his arb clock so early: if he were in the Toronto system he'd have just finished AA.
_Kris - Friday, September 12 2003 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#33308) #
I agree that who knows what the Tigers were doing with Bonderman though that is why they are the Tigers. Bush, Arnold and Magowan will be our best bets in my opinion. From what I have read on Chulk and even Towers these two might be more suited to a middle role, especially Chulk. The bullpen might look better next year if File comes back strong, and maybe the Jays move Arnold or Bush into the pen to start their major league transition. Ainsworth would be rated higher than all but Magowan and Ainsworth has had success at the major league level which you cant say about any of Arnold, Chulk, Bush or Magowan yet. Towers might be a sleeper but I will wait to see about that. Again the juries still out on both sides so hopefully by next year we will see.
_Kris - Sunday, September 14 2003 @ 03:22 AM EDT (#33309) #
I should mention that Bonderman even in double A would be rated a way higher and better prospect than anyone in the Jays system by a longshot. Though some seem to think that draft picks and anyone JP gets are better than guys like Ainsworth or Fossum who have actually seen success in the big leauges. Though a draft pick as compensation for Escobar might get us another middle infield prospect who cant play short but at least gets on base with no range,little power and an average batting average.
Craig B - Sunday, September 14 2003 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#33310) #
I should mention that Bonderman even in double A would be rated a way higher and better prospect than anyone in the Jays system by a longshot.

That goes without saying; he's the best 20-year-old pitcher in baseball right now. So what?

The point that Robert, at least, is trying to make is that the guys the Jays have are basically the same pitcher as Ainsworth and Moss at similar points in their development.

Kurt Ainsworth:

Age 22 AA 10-9, 3.30 ERA, 158 IP 138 H 63 BB 130 K

Age 23 AAA 10-9, 5.07 ERA, 149 IP 139 H 54 BB 157 K

Damian Moss:

Age 22 A-AA 1-6 in 19 starts, 7.03 ERA, 65.1 IP 83 H 36 BB 71 K

Age 23 AAA 9-6, 3.15 ERA, 160.2 IP 130 H 106 BB 123 K

You can't tell me that those guys look like something special compared to the pitching talent the Jays have in their system. Pitchers come from anywhere; except for the very best talents, you are much better off building a pitching staff from quantity rather than quality.

No one's saying that Chulk in particular, or Arnold in particular, or even Josh Towers in particular, is a better pitcher than Ainsworth or Moss. But there's no particular reason they can't be. Ainsworth and Moss were nothing special themselves.
_TUCKER FREDRICK - Sunday, September 14 2003 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#33311) #
jp did, he called Arnold (Maddux) didn't he?? well then again he called felipe lopez his miguel tejada!!
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