Ah, but Joe, the universe contains a (functionally) infinite supply of random data. All the baseball you could want!

http://economics.about.com
Ah, but Joe, the universe contains a (functionally) infinite supply of random data.

If that's true, then how come I can't find a suit jacket that doesn't make me look like David Byrne?

In all seriousness, does anyone have suggestions on where in TO I can find funky but upscale clothing that I could also wear to work?

In London, it's absolutely impossible to find clothes for people over 18 but under 40. Even the Le Chateau here sucks. HELP ME!!!!

Cheers,

Mike

Mike,

I agree that London is limited. I grew up there - what about the funky stores on Richmond Row?

The problem with Club Monaco and Bannana Republic stuff is that there's a fine line between looking stylish and looking gay. Not that there's anything wrong with looking gay of course...

I do most of my shopping at Tabi.

Not being a basketball fan I always find the period between the Super Bowl and spring training to take forever. Since my wife and I have an agreement that we watch baseball in the summer and her shows in the winter I get to see hockeygames during Law & Order commercials. Opening Day can't come soon enough.

http://economics.about.com
what about the funky stores on Richmond Row?

They don't have *any* for men anymore, except for the surf shop. It's pretty sad, particularly since my girlfriend buys so much at Elisabeth Noel at Richmond and Albert. (Right by Prince Al's!)

For whatever reason, bland is in for 2004 and I'm a bright colour guy, so that's not going to help either. Give me my oranges, yellows, and reds!

RE: Gay. I'm tall and skinny, so there's always going to be suspicions anyway. :) So I'm not too worried about that, I'm more worried about crossing the line from stylish to looking like I'm going to a club.

Yeah, I gotta get out of London.

Cheers,

Mike

Yuck--the months between baseball seasons. I think it was Rogers Hornsby who said that in the winter he just stares out the window, waiting for the snow to melt. I feel the same way...

Luckily, in addition to the Jays, my baseball season begins this Friday, as our high school team is having its annual preseason meeting (I am the Varsity Assistant Coach). Practices in the gym should begin next week.

In the meantime, I will count the days until Opening Day, both for the Jays and for our high school!

Ouch, it's snowing...

Welcome to "Clothing Eye for the Baseball Guy."

Griffin's latest was posted in a different thread, but he wrote of Pat Burrell, so I'll mention it here.

Anyone think he'll revert back to his 2002 self and that 2003 was just a weird blip in the radar?

Burrell's average on ball put in play:
2000: .351
2001: .320
2002: .323
2003: .245

Dumb Texan speaking: I'm guessing Tim Horton's is some sort of food establishment?

http://economics.about.com
I'm guessing Tim Horton's is some sort of food establishment?

It's a lot like Dunkin Donuts, but the coffee is a heck of a lot better. Southern Ontarians love coffee, donuts, muffins, and bagels, so the number of Tim Horton's per square mile in Hamilton and London is about the same as the number of Starbucks per square mile in Seattle. I think there's like 70 in London, which is a city of about 350,000.

I'm drinking a Tim Horton's coffee as I'm writing this. :)

Cheers,

Mike

Tim Horton's is a national chain of donut shops, reputed especially for the quality of their coffee. Did you see 'Wayne's World'? Where they hung out at Stan Mikita's Donuts? That was based on Tim Horton's. The idea was, Mike Myers grew up in Scarborough, just outside Toronto, where Tim Horton played for the Leafs. The movie, though, was set in Aurora, outside Chicago, where Stan Mikita played for the Blackhawks.

Basically, in Canada, you can't go more than a couple of blocks without passing a donut shop. Tim Horton's is the dominant name among donut shops, ahead of Coffee Time and Country Style. Krispy Kreme has recently tried to move into the Canadian market amid much fanfare, and there's a place for them here, but they're certainly not going to have the place all to themselves.

--

I just noticed something weird about this site, using Mozilla. Firebird tries to put a little icon next to Batter's Box in my Bookmarks list, but since Batter's Box doesn't provide one, it borrows one from another site I have bookmarked. For a while it was using the Wizards of the Coast (company that makes Dungeons and Dragons) website's icon, and now it's using Workopolis. What's the deal? This doesn't happen for other sites.

The only two things I miss about London are Sammy's Souvlaki and going to Knights games. Of course, when I lived there, the Knights were garbage.

http://economics.about.com
Of course, when I lived there, the Knights were garbage.

Hehehehe.. my Dad had seasons tickets the year they Won 3, Lost 60, and Tied 3. Fortunately I was busy at University at that time so I only saw 5 or 6 games.

The new arena is a beautiful facility, but it's missing a lot of charm of the old barn.

Cheers,

Mike

Going back to another discussion we had here recently, here's one more advantage of the Jays affiliating with the Portland Sea Dogs in 2005: they have Tim Hortons in Portland.

When I'm in Portland, I always stay at a Super 8 about 10 minutes from the ballpark. There's a Tim Hortons at an Exxon station within walking distance of the hotel. Any visiting Canadians will feel right at home.

hey mike, the last time I saw a pic of david byrne was in a GQ feature; he was wearing a dior homme hedi slimane suit and $1,200 john lobb shoes, and looked quite sharp...

what's your definition of upscale? I hope le chateau isn't it ;) try the theory stuff carried at holt renfrew, or a homegrown chain like tristan & america...what's wrong with looking gay, anyway? I happen to think that will truman's the best dressed character on TV. I'm slim as well, and find that Body Body Wear, a "gay" clothing label with shops at yonge & bloor and queen west, makes some great slim fitting business casual clothes (wilder stuff as well, but I'd rather not look campy). Oh, and try FCUK as well...european labels always carry slimmer fitting clothes than their american counterparts.

lastly, I'm not so sure about orange, but peach and pink, for dress shirts at least, are definitely in...

- s.

http://economics.about.com
There's 4 Tim Hortons in Rochester. And they look exactly the same as the ones in Canada. It's actually rather spooky. Even the prices are the same, except they're in U.S. Dollars. Coffee tasted the same too.

There was only *one* diffence I noticed. They don't have the 8 ounce size available. The sizing goes as follows:

Size	Canada	U.S.
10 oz.	Medium	Small
14 oz.	Large	Medium
20 oz.	Extra Large	Large

That's the only difference I noticed, but I think it speaks volumes. :)

Cheers,

Mike

http://economics.about.com
david byrne was in a GQ feature; he was wearing a dior homme hedi slimane suit and $1,200 john lobb shoes, and looked quite sharp...

I meant David Byrne, circa 1984, gigantic white suit. :)

what's your definition of upscale? I hope le chateau isn't it ;)

Hahahaha.. not at all. The problem is, there isn't much else in London, unless you want to look like you're 40.

try the theory stuff carried at holt renfrew, or a homegrown chain like tristan & america... I'm slim as well, and find that Body Body Wear, a "gay" clothing label with shops at yonge & bloor and queen west, makes some great slim fitting business casual clothes (wilder stuff as well, but I'd rather not look campy). Oh, and try FCUK as well...european labels always carry slimmer fitting clothes than their american counterparts.

Thanks for the tips! I should have also mentioned that I don't have unlimited amounts of money, but that just means I'll have to go to a ton of places and look for deals. My girlfriend loves FCUK, so I'll have no problems dragging her around.

lastly, I'm not so sure about orange, but peach and pink, for dress shirts at least, are definitely in...

Yeah, orange is out. Sucks for me, coz it works really well with my skin tone.

I've seen some pink here, not so much peach. Just as long as there's *some* colour, I'm happy.

Yet, there are still people out there who think all seamheads are nerds who can't dress themselves! :)

Cheers,

Mike

there isn't much else in London, unless you want to look like you're 40.

Get me some of that stuff right away, Mike, in the "relaxed fit" size. Does it come with a guarantee?

http://economics.about.com
Get me some of that stuff right away, Mike, in the "relaxed fit" size. Does it come with a guarantee?

ROFL. I knew someone was going to comment on that. Very nice. :)

Cheers,

Mike

If you are looking for cheap and don't mind sifting through bins of crap, Winners has some decent stuff and is a gold mine for good cheap ties. Mexx and Zara are higher scale versions of Le Chateau but not quite FCUK. And, while it is normally way overpriced, during their sale periods you can find some nice shirts and sweaters at Harry Rosen without handing over your first born.

Geez, and all I want is one of those new Blue Jays Batting Practice caps...it doesn't have to be a Le Chateau or a Pepe LePew or anything!

Forgot to say, oh yes, in Western New York State we have experienced a large growth of Tim Hortons over the past few years. It used to be Dunkin Donuts Land--in fact, during my free period from teaching I went and got 3 old fashioned plan donuts today---mmmm donuts.

Sadly, in a survey by the Toronto Star this weekend, most of the Horton managers did not even know who the great Tim Horton was...I forget the percentage.

Krispy Kreame's are nasty.

Coliver, do you coach in Toronto? Our team (Ursula Franklin Academy) also works out indoors in March, then we're available for an exhibition game as soon as the snow clears. We have a very young team this year, with several Grade 10 starters. E-mail me if you're interested.

Coach..Unfortunately not in Toronto, but in Western New York State. It would be cool if we were closer to Toronto. Too bad the Dome can't be used for an indoor tournament.

coliver, where in NY are you? I grew up playing baseball in the bad weather of Rochester. I was always so jealous of my cousin from Florida who go to play nearly year-round.

D'oh! [bangs head on keyboard]

Sorry, coliver. I have a bad habit of leaving a comment on my desktop when the phone rings, then posting it later. Best of luck with your season.

If your pockets are deep enough, you can rent the Dome, even for a corporate softball outing, but schools up here are slashing budgets, so a tournament would need a benevolent sponsor. However, I'd be worried about burning out arms if there was a March tourney. You can only get so ready in a gym, and some kids might compete too hard, too soon.

The best high school teams in the province do get to play at the Dome for the Prentice Cup in June, which is always great ball. Last year, the losing team in the finals had the Jays dugout. It was a pretty gloomy place until Eric Hinske came out of the clubhouse, told the guys that finishing second in the "state" was an awesome accomplishment, and signed some autographs.

Anyone know of any relatively straightforward articles explaining some of the more common metrics that are often used (VORP, EQA etc)?

Going back to another discussion we had here recently, here's one more advantage of the Jays affiliating with the Portland Sea Dogs in 2005: they have Tim Hortons in Portland.

Pardon? The Jays are going to have a minor league team in Portland? Which state? Are they moving one of the current teams? Am I the only one who hasn't heard about this? Is this a record for longest post wherein every sentence is a question?

Dr...same weather as in Rochester, suburb of Buffalo

Baseball Prospectus Top 50 Prospect List is out. They did a very good job but wow, SIX Blue Jays prospects!?

Hmmm. How many of those six will make it? Two? Rios and one of the pitchers? I was surprised to see Russ Adams on the list, especially ranked higher than Bobby Jenks. And poor Kevin Youlkilis -- out of the top 50!

David Wright is the 5th best prospect in baseball according to BP; Dioner Navarro is the 30th best prospect. Navarro is younger, played at a higher developmental level and performed significantly better at that level, and is an adequate catcher rather than a third baseman.

I like Wright, but this ranking looks to be totally idiosyncratic. There are a few others that look quite out of place, but maybe they're just trying to get a reaction.

I found it amusing that Blanton and Adams were ranked right next to each other.

http://sports.mainetoday.com/seadogs/stories/030717elnotes.shtml
Pardon? The Jays are going to have a minor league team in Portland? Which state? Are they moving one of the current teams? Am I the only one who hasn't heard about this?

Just speculation on my part. There have been rumors for a couple of years that the Red Sox wanted their AA affiliate in Manchester. Their current affiliate is in Portland, Maine, but their agreement with the Sea Dogs is up after this year, as is the Blue Jays' agreement with the Fisher Cats. It's probably unlikely based on the statements the Sea Dogs have made (COMN), but the rumors and speculation will probably persist until agreements for 2005 are formally signed.

The BP Top 50 now has its own thread.

Three Mets in the top dozen is pretty impressive, even if one of them is already a perennial all-star in a higher league than AAA, and I share Mike Green's incredulity at Wright's ranking.

How many of those six will make it? Two?

I hope that three of the four position players have useful careers, not that I could possibly predict which one won't. Nor would I want to bet that they all end up as Jays. As we all know, TANSTAAPP, so I'm just crossing my fingers on McGowan and Bush, and admit that both of them becoming impact big-leaguers would be a very pleasant surprise.

If there is a rule of thumb for highly-regarded young pitchers, it's that of any three, one lives up to expectations, one gets hurt and one is traded. Again, there's no way to know in advance which will be which. Fortunately, the Jays have a dozen or more possibilities, not just these two, leading to a reasonable guess that significant talent will eventually arrive in Toronto.

http://www.firstport.com
Thanks Craig! That was a subscribers' article, no? Perhaps you should just provide the highlights, not the entire thing (just to cover da Box's rear end)!

Having said that, here are the top organizations (by number of prospects in the top 50):
1. Toronto (6)
2. Anaheim (5)
3. LA (4)
4. Milwaukee, New York (NL), and Pittsburgh (3) -- the Mets have THREE of the top 12!

More amazing is that SIX organizations had ZERO players in the Top 50: the Rangers, Cubs, Expos, Giants, Tigers, and Astros. Boston barely made it!

Bryan Smith, Wait Til Next Year, has his Top 50 Prospects (Top 90 if you scroll through...) and provides enlightening opinion and analysis of his prospecting criteria. 5 Jays make the list: Rios (#5), Quiroz (#22), McGowan (#24), Gross (#51), and Bush (#88).

http://economics.about.com
David Wright is the 5th best prospect in baseball according to BP; Dioner Navarro is the 30th best prospect. Navarro is younger, played at a higher developmental level and performed significantly better at that level, and is an adequate catcher rather than a third baseman.

He's also like 5'7" and 160lbs (with the baseball measurements 5'10" and 185lbs), which weighed incredibly heavily in BP's decision.

Cheers,

Mike

Ironically, if he were 5'7" and 185 pounds, I'd like him more. He needs to fill out. Short/small catchers, in my book, are BETTER than big/tall catchers. But without any meat on his bones, catching is going to hurt him.

http://economics.about.com
Here's a quote from one of the articles. I really hope this falls under "fair use":

"We de-emphasize body types, for good reason, but Dioner Navarro's can't be ignored. He's tiny. The 5'10" is a joke, as I'd peg him at 5'8 and 150 pounds the day after Thanksgiving. There's no upper body strength whatsoever, and he swings with the authority of a 9-year-old schoolgirl. There's just no room for him to get any stronger without turning into a Warren Newson-type athlete, and I can't see any major league team sticking a player like that behind the plate. We have to assume that he's never going to develop much power, and the high average screams fluke to me."

Look, there is just no way that that's the case. Dioner Navarro had 42 extra-base hits (31/4/7) in 405 ABs between high-A and AA last year. How the hell is he managing this if he's not generating power in his swing? Does he come with a built-in tailwind?

isn't "Pudge" Rodriguez 5' 9" on a good day? he's managed to churn out extra-base hits while playing catcher and outweighing Newson by a good 20 lbs.

"...and the high average screams fluke to me"...don't get that either; is the implication there that one needs to be big and strong to hit for a high average? tell that to Ichiro.

- s.

Bonds finally admits it!

Check these two ESPN articles:
Bonds State of the Me address
Bonds hopes BALCO storm blows over

OK - I was misleading you a bit; he admits to chasing Aaron's HR record now. (Previously, he said he was only targetting Ruth's HR mark.) A short excerpt:

When asked if he can pass Hank Aaron's record of 755 homers, Bonds quickly answered: "I think I can do anything. ... I'm going for it all."

http://economics.about.com
isn't "Pudge" Rodriguez 5' 9" on a good day?

Yep, that was mentioned in the article.

"...and the high average screams fluke to me"...

I couldn't quote the whole article, but the guy's point was that Navarro hit .238 last year and .299 in the FSL, so the .342 he hit in 200ABs in the Eastern League has to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

I think Craig's right about Navarro's power. I could see some of the doubles being speed related, but 32 of them? And where did the 7 homers come from?

Cheers,

Mike

I'd like to meet Jeremy Reed and Dioner Navarro to judge for myself. Jeremy Reed is listed as 6' and 160 lbs, and looks like it in photographs. Dioner Navarro is listed as 5'10" and 185. From pictures, he does not look especially small. Bear in mind also that he was 19.

As for "swinging with the authority of a 9 year-old schoolgirl", Navarro hit 8 home runs in just over 400 ABs in a not particularly favorable context. At the same age, Pudge hit 2 homers in 410 ABs in Class A.

I'm with Craig. I prefer catchers who are short and stocky to those who are tall. Navarro and Quiroz both look to me like they will be in the short and stocky mould.

Anyways, my point wasn't so much that Navarro was underrated, but that Wright was overrated. At this point, he's be 21 years old and entering double A. He'll hit for a decent but not great average, with good but not great strike zone judgment and medium range power. If all goes well, he's in Buddy Bell territory. Or maybe Todd Zeile, Sal Bando or Ron Cey. That is, if all goes well. I do think that he will get there, but that's just an opinion.

There are player in the 30s on BPs list (Navarro, Greg Miller) who have a chance to have HoF quality careers if they develop at normal rates from their current trajectory. Wright would have to take a quantum leap to be in that class.

http://www.firstport.com
Add Rafael Soriano to the list of early spring training casualties.

http://www.all-baseball.com/nextyear/
In his analysis of 2004-2005 free agents, Bryan Smith ranks Delgado at number 2 for hitters and suggests that he will be a prime target by DePodesta and the Dodgers. Sadly, it's a very logical destination too. LA needs hitters BADLY, Delgado would be re-united with his buddy Shawn Green and Delgado's high-OBP numbers would probably impress DePodesta.

COMN for link (if there's new posts, you might have to scroll down a little)

http://economics.about.com
There are player in the 30s on BPs list (Navarro, Greg Miller) who have a chance to have HoF quality careers if they develop at normal rates from their current trajectory.

If Navarro keeps progressing at the same rate he is now, he'll hit around .560 for the Yankees in 2006. :)

I think the major difference between how most of us here evaluate players and how the BP guys do is that we put a lot more stock on recent performance than the BP guys do. That explains why Rios and Navarro rate so low on the BP list, as Navarro is a career .234 hitter coming into the beginning of the 2003 season.

Cheers,

Mike

Bryan Smith ranks Delgado at number 2 for hitters and suggests that he will be a prime target by DePodesta and the Dodgers.

I know Bryan is looking at free agency, but that's actually the only trade scenario that is remotely plausible to me. It's still highly unlikely, but you can assume J.P. and DePodesta will be talking about all kinds of possibilities. First of all, the Jays would have to be out of the playoff hunt and the Dodgers in contention, or one booming bat away. Then Carlos would have to be swept off his feet by a multi-year extension, in order to waive his no-trade clause and forego testing the free-agent waters. Finally, the Dodgers would have to make it worth Toronto's while, as in more talent, closer to the Show, than they could expect from compensatory draft picks. I wouldn't count on any of those things happening, much less all of them.

It's not just posturing on both sides when you hear the talk of how Carlos loves Toronto, so we may still get him at a "hometown" discount next winter. However, it's safe to assume that L.A. will be very interested, has the resources to make a much larger offer, and is one of the few places Delgado might seriously consider, for the reasons Robbie mentions. It wouldn't surprise me if the Angels also take a big run at him.

I have to wonder how Jeremy Reed, a fine prospect in his own right, could possibly be ranked #2 overall, when two outfielders with higher ceilings and demonstrated on-field success (Alexis Rios and Grady Sizemore) are ranked 15th and 24th, respectively. The list is skewed in another way, too: only 17 of the Top 50 (and just 4 of the Top 20) are pitchers, consistent with BP's TNSTAAPP philosophy but not very reflective, I don't think, of reality. And while I personally wouldn't call Kazuo Matsui a "prospect," if he is to be included on the list, he has to be in the Top 5: he's going to be posting Edgar Renteria numbers in the majors this year while Prince Fielder is taking his hacks in A-Ball. Really, BP's list is in many ways just as idiosyncratic as others we've seen this winter.

Alexis Rios would probably be downgraded by BP for two reasons.
1. His plate discipline is still not very good.
2. He's only had one year of success.

I hope that Rios becomes a Jays star as much as anyone here but I'm not ordering a Rios jersey until I see his walk ratio improve. He may be a 5 tool player and that is what whets our appetites and makes organizations like Baseball America fall in love with him. However, you can't expect that his tools would wow the BP crew.

Add Rafael Soriano to the list of early spring training casualties.

Ah, hell. I know they say "only a month," but those oblique strains, especially in pitchers, seemingly take months to heal. I seem to recall that Steve Karsay came back slowly from an oblique injury a few years ago; hopefully Soriano can come back soon, because I am looking forward to seeing him in the bigs for a full season.

Really, BP's list is in many ways just as idiosyncratic as others we've seen this winter.

Isn't this essentially the nature of prospect lists? Every year there are can't miss prospects who miss, usually once they reach the majors -- Jose Ortiz, come on down! -- but also in the minors -- Kevin Youlkilis, it's your turn! -- and every year there are players not on the lists who bust out. These lists are fun and provide a nice place to begin discussing potential rookies and longer-term impact players, but they really shouldn't be viewed as much more than that.

That said, I notice that Joe Blanton is the only member of the A's Class of 2002 draft. And if BP isn't high on some of The Super Seven, that's saying something, because there isn't a bigger apologist around for the A's than BP. I'll be anxious to follow some of those guys this year -- Swisher and Brown, in particular.

http://www.firstport.com
Fordin has two more pieces today, one about the pitching prospects and another article covering the other bases, including a possible new innovation on the player development side of things.

Pitching prospects - one guy that doesn't get mentioned much lately is Adam Petersen. If he is throwing 95-96 with some command one would hope that the Jays would give him a look over a guy with a plus change-up. The name of the article is a little misleading. True, the top two levels were very bare when JP took over but there were some good arms in the lower levels that are still improving and Fordin does point that out.

There's a whole tier of prospects after that, most of them drafted by Ricciardi. In fact, he compared his system favorably to Oakland's, where he worked before Toronto. He said the A's may have more top-level talent but that the Jays are deeper.

I hope he doesn't mean the current Oakland system ;)
Cause other than Crosby and Blanton, I don't think there's too much there...

Dean, Are you referring to Rosario with the "plus change up" comment? Because he doesn't just have a plus change up, he can dial it up to 97 or so with a power curve and one of the best changes in the minors. I think Peterson gets plenty of mention for a guy who struggled at AA last year, granted he destoyed the competition at A ball for a couple months.

Fordin, if you reading, another fine article on the pitching prospects but one minor note:
" Dustin McGowan was a supplemental first-round pick in 2000, Gord Ash's final draft as Toronto's general manager"

I believe Ash's last draft was 2001, n'est pas?

Ryan, I believe Dean was talking about Talley Haines, as his changeup and "lanky body" were discussed in the Fordin article on the Jays site.

Ahh.. that could be. I had only read the first article about the pitching prospects which it looked like Dean was referring to. Thanks Doc.

http://economics.about.com
Pitching prospects - one guy that doesn't get mentioned much lately is Adam Petersen. If he is throwing 95-96 with some command one would hope that the Jays would give him a look over a guy with a plus change-up.

The guy with a plus change-up has two years of AAA experience, and had an ERA of two-and-a-half last year. Peterson has pitched all of 24 innings above A ball and didn't exactly dominate in those 24 innings.

Peterson will get his shot, but he's still pretty far from primetime right now. There's no need to rush him.

Cheers,

Mike

Xerone, on behalf of beleaguered francophiles, it's "n'est-ce pas" :)

Jordan, while I don't agree with BP regarding Jeremy Reed, I can see where they're coming from. He hit .409 in 200 plus ABs at double A last year. Given his fine overall minor league record, it's a safe bet that he would have hit .350 at least over a season at age 22. He walks significantly more than he strikes out, and he seems to be developing medium range power. That is the profile of a pure hitter to the tee. If I were to take one hitter for 2005 only, it would be Jeremy Reed.

In the longer run, I don't think he's a better prospect than Rios, in light of Rios' superior secondary skills and power potential, but I sure wouldn't mind having both.

I think Tallie Haines is a long shot to make the team between the possibility of taking an extra bench player and the possible return to health of Durocher and File. Peterson of course has good tools but there's little reason to push him if he still has things to work on. Frankly his sample of performance is so small at each level that it's hard to tell how ready he is without seeing him in person. I'd be surprised if he made the team out of spring after the Jays added three experienced righties in the off-season.

If Peterson was a 22 or 23 year I'd agree but he turns 25 this year and his heater would be a good compliment to the other guys in the pen who don't have overpowering fastballs. He probably won't break with the team unless there is an injury or two in spring training but if it comes down to Haines or Petersen I hope they take the latter.

R Billie, sorry your post came through while I was doing mine.

Merci beaucoup for the correction Mike. I promise never to attempt to put my atrocious French skills to use again.... my English is bad enough as it is. :)

As for Peterson, I wouldn't mind if he were taken instead of Haines, IF and only if he was truly ready. There's no point rushing Peterson when he's not ready and it wouldn't hurt to give Haines and extended look before we return him to the Rays.

He probably won't break with the team unless there is an injury or two in spring training but if it comes down to Haines or Petersen I hope they take the latter.

Huh? If you could add either Haines or Peterson to the bullpen, and it came down to those two, you'd add Peterson? That makes no sense.

Talley Haines is a Rule 5 pick. If you don't keep him on the active roster, you have to give him back to Atlanta for $25,000 - half what you just paid for him. You'll never see him again.

Adam Peterson has three years of options left. He's never even pitched in AAA. You can stash him in AAA as long as you need to, until an injury clears a place for him, or Haines shows he's not worth keeping.

Just adding Peterson, without any other reason, and punting on Haines would be an example of brutal, unthinking roster management. Making 25th-man decisions based on who you think has the higher upside down the road is the kind of knee-jerk, panicky decision-making that got the Gord Ash Jays into so much trouble.

By the way, Haines had a year for AA Orlando in 2001 that was a dead ringer for Peterson's 2003 AA numbers, just with three times as many innings and a little better luck on the ERA. The ratios were all almost exactly the same. I thought that was interesting.

I'm comparing a 25 year old with a plus fastball, who has worked out of the bullpen since college and since the end of the season has even improved his velocity to a 28 year old with a plus change-up. From this I advocate taking Petersen should it come down to the two of them. Stuff does get major league batters out. Theres no rash knee-jerk reaction here just advocating the best pitcher be chosen. Keeping a 28 year old guy on the roster because its going to cost him $25,000 isn't something that will cause JP to loose any sleep. A trade could be worked out if they thought Haines was worth keeping but not ready for The Show.

Peterson will probably be the Syracuse closer. Let's give him half a season in that role before even thinking of promoting him. Unless he's blowing the ball past AAA hitters and not walking many, there simply is no need for him in Toronto. The days of calling up Scott Cassidy in desperation are over.

I think Haines will be returned to Tampa, even if he looks good. If even one of File, Durocher, Chen and Maurer makes a strong impression in camp, they would vault ahead of him. Durocher is the wild card. Supposedly he had minor surgery after that great 2002, then he struck out 12 (walking just one) in 9 IP early last year, only to feel a twinge in his final rehab outing. Determined to stay in Milwaukee, he tried to pitch through it, which made matters worse and ended up costing him the whole year. If Jayson is 100% sound, I like his chances.

With Towers in the bullpen for the first couple of weeks, I really can't believe they need a 12th pitcher anyway, so I'm still campaigning for Simon Pond to go north as the 25th man.

So will J.P make a trade with the newly appointed Los Angeles GM? Will Carlos be gone via trade or will he walk? This is assuming he goes with a reduced salary as we all hope he does. Is the LA farm system not deep enough to offer up some jewels and still have a solid base? They obviously need a mega-slugger. Plus Shawn Green. Plus the Oakland triad. Is this not a distinct possibility that has yet to be discussed? Couldn't we get more pitching? We obviously have a strong crop now, why not take advantage?

I think the whole Delgado to LA thing is getting a little out of hand. Yes, it's nice that there's another Beane disciple (especially in the NL), but Delgado is a huge part of this team. If the team is TRULY ready to be World Series contenders in 2005, then trading Delgado for a few prospects (even high ceiling ones) who won't have an impact for years doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If 2005-07 are going to be the Jays' best chance to win a WS, then Delgado helps a whole lot more than having a great prospect or two climbing the ladder in the minors. That's why resigning Delgado to a 2 (or 3) year deal makes so much sense (and it's been mentioned around here many times)-keep one of your best players around for a shot at it all, and THEN if it's not to be-trade him, he'll still be very valuable.

If that's true, then how come I can't find a suit jacket that doesn't make me look like David Byrne?

It's because there are an infinite number of locations and your search has so far been confined to a tiny fraction of them.

I'm partial to The Second Cup.

I think the whole Delgado to LA thing is getting a little out of hand. Yes, it's nice that there's another Beane disciple (especially in the NL), but Delgado is a huge part of this team. If the team is TRULY ready to be World Series contenders in 2005, then trading Delgado for a few prospects (even high ceiling ones) who won't have an impact for years doesn't make a whole lot of sense. If 2005-07 are going to be the Jays' best chance to win a WS, then Delgado helps a whole lot more than having a great prospect or two climbing the ladder in the minors. That's why resigning Delgado to a 2 (or 3) year deal makes so much sense (and it's been mentioned around here many times)-keep one of your best players around for a shot at it all, and THEN if it's not to be-trade him, he'll still be very valuable.


The Jays are overflowing with prospects in the high minors _right now_. Gross, Rios, and Quiroz should all be ready to step into a full time role in 2005.

Delgado may be the heart and soul of the Jays, but it will be way more cost effective to let the kids play, and spend the money somewhere else (i.e. better 3B defense, starting rotation, etc.)

BTW, I think Delgado will be able to squeeze a 5 year deal out of someone, so he will not bite on a 2-3 year offer from Toronto.

http://economics.about.com
It's because there are an infinite number of locations and your search has so far been confined to a tiny fraction of them.

LOL. Yeah, I guess the universe does extend past London, Ontario. :)

Cheers,

Mike

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=1741461
More on catchers' size. Phil Rogers in a recent article, COMN, lists Joe Mauer as 6'4", 230 lbs. He sure looks a lot thinner than that in the accompanying picture and espn.com has him at 205.

I guess you can't put too much weight on these estimates.

http://bbfl.scottlucas.com
Yay! The BBFL is now the number one (and two and three) link when entering "BBFL" in Google. Previously and annoyingly held by BBFL Productions, some "hip-hop events" thang out of Vancouver. We're also ahead of the Big Blue Football League.

http://www.spawn.com/toys/product.aspx?product=2260
In June Carlos Delgado will finally get his own McFarlane Toys figurine, joining Eric Hinske as the only Jays to get one (Hinske's hit store shelves a year ago). COMN for a preview.

Marty York brings us his usual shtick, with a pretty amusing story about Justin Miller's latest body art.

Is the LA farm system not deep enough to offer up some jewels and still have a solid base?

I hope you're joking. If - and that's a big IF - the Jays ever traded Delgado, LA is about as good a trading partner in terms of prospects as any team. A deal that includes either Edwin Jackson or Greg Miller (or both ;)) and James Loney or Franklin Gutierrez would probably be just fine in the event the Jays were out of contention and decided to trade Delgado ;)

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20040225&content_id=641323&vkey=spt2004news&fext=.jsp
Another article from Fordin about Delgado (COMN)

"I've got more money than I could spend in two lifetimes. I've got a pension coming up," he said. "I'm my worst and best critic. I don't worry about what people say, I don't worry about what people expect. I just go out and do what I can do." -Carlos Delgado

Well, Batter's Box has just earned itself an endnote in an academic university paper. Congradulations. Another landmark achievmeent for this blog.

realllyyy??? which one??? York??? U of T????

http://all-baseball.com/nextyear/
COMN for some interesting Jays related notes from the Wait Til Next Year blog.... I'd like some opinions on what he says about the Jays and BP...

I'd like some opinions on what he says about the Jays and BP...

Regarding Delgado - I can't imagine the Jays would sign him to a $15 million deal. You could make it work in 2005, but in 2006, and especially 2007, you really run into a crunch.

BP's connection with the Jays through Keith Law are pretty well-known. In the final analysis, though, Keith isn't going to be dictating their Top 50 to them. It is, I suppose, possible that BP's authors will be higher on prospects for whom they have more information, and if they get more information from their former colleague than from other front offices they would rank those players higher. But you have a lot of guys sitting aroud that table, and I would think it's pretty hard to fool all of them.

No one who puts together "top prospects" lists is immune from puffery. No observer is unbiased. At the very least, everyone always wants to promote the players they have promoted in the past, to make themselves look good. Just getting Baseball America to admit that maybe, just maybe, Russ Adams is a future shortstop has been like pulling teeth. (Finally, last time they commented on him, they said that "experts differ" - or something like that - on his future position instead of automatically asuming he'd be moved). Why? Because they've been running down his defensive ability since before he was drafted.

Regarding Delgado - I can't imagine the Jays would sign him to a $15 million deal. You could make it work in 2005, but in 2006, and especially 2007, you really run into a crunch.

Is it just the Jays that wouldn't offer him a contract like that? Personally, I don't see any teams offering him that kind of money. Delgado will be 32-33 next year and is definitely past his prime --- which is not to say he can't still put up incredible numbers. To me, the most comparable recent contract to what Delgado would command is the one that Sheffield got from the Yanks --- 3 years / 39 million if I'm not mistaken. Considering Sheffield hit .330 with 39HR and 132RBI, his production is around the same as Delgado's, and his consistency over the years in terms of batting average is even better. 12-13 million is probably a more reasonable estimation of what he would get, an amount the Jays could probably absorb and still field a highly competitive team with a sub-60 payroll. Personally, I think that at that level, it's worth it --- without a player of his MVP calibre --- the Jays really do go from being a very good offensive team to one that's just average. If the Jays offense is to remain potent, a player like Delgado can't simply be replaced with an average offensive talent for first base --- whether it's Hinske, Phelps or even a FA like Glaus, who's high OBP and good power might impress JP for a considerably cheaper price.

http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/nyy/news/nyy_news.jsp?ymd=20040226&content_id=641599&vkey=news_nyy&fext=.jsp
Aaron Boone was given his unconditional release. COMN.

Matt, Queen's. A history essay, too, believe it or not.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1745069
Bernie Williams had an emergency appendectomy today (COMN). The breakdown of the aged ones begins. It looks as if he won't be ready for the start of the season, which is a rather long recovery from that surgery, I think.

The Yankees (and Rays) start the season March 30, almost a week earlier than anyone else. Maybe that's the reason.

True Lucas, but that's still over a month away. Didn't Schilling come back from that in about 2 weeks last year? The average recovery time is I believe 3-4 weeks. Just a little surprising they're already ruling him out for opening day.

Bearing in mind Giambi's knee, it doesn't really surprise me that Travis Lee will start the season at 1B with Giambi DHing. In my mind, I've pencilled in the DH/1B slots 120 games started for Bernie, 120 for Giambi and 80 for Travis Lee. It makes sense if you figure that the real games start in October, and you want the geezers to be ready.

As an appendectomy recipient myself, I would imagine that Bernie will be out of hospital within a matter of days (though if it was an emergency situation, there might well be complications -- ask Adrian Beltre). The harder part is getting back to full mobility and activity, especially for an athlete: even though it's a minor operation, the fact is they still cut you open and yank something out, and that takes a while to get over. I imagine that 4-5 weeks is the measure of time between the operating table and the on-deck circle, measured cautiously.

Just watched an interview with Rios on TSN. He said he needs to have more patience at the plate and draw more walks. That way he'll get to the majors sooner. Gee, I wonder if someone has been talking to him.

Apparently the new issue of Sports Illustrated has Michael Lewis' followup to Moneyball. It doesn't continue to tell the stories of Beane and Co. Rather, it is a criticism of those in the baseball establishment (writers and front office types) who attacked the book. The article isn't online so we'll all have to buy the issue. However, Futility Infielder and Dodger Thoughts provide a teaser of what is contained in the article.

I just picked up SI tonight. The Lewis article is pretty good. One thing he doesn't touch on, quite, is my favourite aspect of the Moneyball reaction: why, exactly, does Joe Morgan think the book was written by Beane? (Answer: because Morgan doesn't think that Michael Lewis is anybody.) I wonder if Lewis knows why or just isn't interested in mentioning it.

I lent my dad Moneyball last weekend. He's kind of old-school when it comes to baseball analysis, so I'm not really sure how he's going to like it.

The Baseball America top 100 prospects list is out for 2004. The Jays are well represented with Rios #6, Magowan #18, Quiroz #35,Gross #72,Rosario #87 and Hill #96. Thats 6 in the top 100 which tied with the Angels, Brewers and Cubs for first place. One other interesting note was that out of the top 100 53 were high school draft pics.

Well, I'm off to the newsstand.

McGowan. Thank you.

Whoops, McGowan is correct. Thanks Jonny.

BA's list didn't correlate too badly with the Box's. Our consensus was that Rios, Quiroz and McGowan were top prospects in this order. Gross and Bush were next, and then a whole mess of players filled up the 5-10 slots. The major difference between our list and BAs was the presence of Rosario and the absence of Bush. Bearing in mind Rosario's performance in 2002 and BA's observations of him in the instructional league in late 2003, it's easy to understand why BA might be more optimistic about him than Bauxites were.

A note about McGowan. In some places, he's reported to be a ground-ball pitcher, a la Roy Halladay. McGowan's stats in Dunedin and New Haven last year were in fact neutral on the gb/fb scale, and almost identical to Bush's. What makes McGowan so special statistically is not so much his K rate, which is very good but not exceptional, but his very low HR allowed rate (1 in 150 innings last year). He throws a heavy ball apparently. He's ideally suited to the Skydome.

Well, I'm off to the newsstand.

Where can you pick one up? When I went to Chapters, they didn't have BA...

The Baseball America top 100 issue will be on Newsstands mid march. You can read the top 10 online and if you are a subscriber you will get the top 100 plus breakdown. There is an interesting chat transcript on the top 100 list as well that is free. An online chat is happening at 4 eastern today.

I wonder if using the word "eclipse" in the comment about Prince Fielder was supposed to be that funny.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040227top100_chat.html
A couple interesting notes from the internal chat (COMN)

JBoyd: How about the Jays?

JCallis: You know, I ranked the Blue Jays eighth when we ranked organizations and I can't for the life of me figure out why I ranked them that low.

JManuel: so much depth in Toronto as well, though their '03 draft figures into their top 30 pretty highly

WLingo: i don't love their college guys

JCallis: I think I'd put them in my top five if I did it again today.

JCallis: That's the interesting point, that so many of their best guys were signed at high school age, starting with Alexis Rios, Dustin McGowan and Guillermo Quiroz, their three best guys.

JManuel: what's not to like about Aaron Hill?

JBoyd: If we just ranked orgs based on their ceiling potential, impact potential, the Jays top three would have them in the top three overall, don't you think?

JCallis: Blend, blend, blend! Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado seem to have done OK.

JManuel: Or Gabe Gross, or David Bush?

JCallis:I don't mind those college guys John is mentioning at all. As for Josh, the Brewers (Weeks, Fielder, Hardy) would be up there.

WLingo: i don't see them as impact players.

Cubs extend Wood.

One fewer Free Agent next year.

Did anyone else find BA's chat a little nauseating, with their underhand remarks on Moneyball?

WLingo: we still love tools. you need to perform, but you got to have tools.

JCallis: Only two college players in the Top 25 (Weeks, Reed) and only 12, I think in the Top 75. I believe 13 of the last 25 were collegians.

Using the rankings of its own prospect list somehow as evidence of the favoribility of HS-ers, as BA seems to be implying, is inherently flawed. Has BA ever done any quality performance-based studies on the predictive validity of their own lists as opposed to showing that the same players they liked coming out of HS are the same guys they like now?!

http://economics.about.com
Has BA ever done any quality performance-based studies on the predictive validity of their own lists as opposed to showing that the same players they liked coming out of HS are the same guys they like now?!

I'm not sure if they have. The gave out these stats, which show the rate at which highschoolers and college players make it to the show. They're pretty telling: 63.4% of all highschool second rounders don't make the major leagues, compared to 37.4% of collegians. Of course, with data like this, there's a lot of different ways to "read" it.

Cheers,

Mike

It is a fact that on anybody's ranking of the top 30 prospects (even BPs) in baseball right now, the great majority of them are high-schoolers. As you move on down to the lower reaches of the top 100 lists, opinions vary quite a bit.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/spring2004/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=1745908
In Jayson Stark's latest Rumblings and Grumblings, he seems to give credit for the revitalization of the Jays to the new labour deal. Or am I reading it wrong?

Thanks for the link, Matthew.

Look, I know it's mean...but this quote from Stark's column actually made me laugh out loud:

Let it never be said that the Brewers aren't thinking positive. They gave World Series MVP incentive clauses to five players this winter -- Ben Sheets, Wes Helms, Ben Grieve, Danny Kolb and Gary Bennett.

Heh, heh. It's still cracking me up.

OK, I've also stopped laughing, but I did think of something after the guffaw: what happens if Sheets or Kolb get traded to real teams -- teams that then win the World Series. Do the clauses still hold?

Oh, and I suppose that player would have to win the Series MVP, given that's in an MVP clause, not a reach-the-World-Series clause.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=fanball-cubswoodagreestothre&prov=fanball&type=lgns
Dont know if anyone said this yet but Kerry Wood signed a 3 year 32.5 million contract with the Cubs. COMN for the story