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Welcome to 2004! The minor-league baseball season got underway last night, and all four of the Blue Jays’ top farm teams saw action. We’ve got pitching duels, slugfests, extra-inning nail-biters and a brand-new fun feature to track the best prospects in the system. Batter’s Box is very happy to renew its in-depth coverage of Toronto’s minor-league system. Here we go:

Rochester 7 Syracuse 2

Starting the home opener was top prospect David Bush, who followed up a sterling 2003 campaign with an excellent spring training. None of which prevented him from being clobbered in his Triple-A debut: 7 runs on 9 hits and 1 walk in 4 innings, with just 3 strikeouts. Bush allowed all 7 runs in the first 2 innings, including 4 in the 1st after two were out; on the positive side, he hung around for two more scoreless innings after learning, the hard way, to rely more on his breaking stuff. Young pitchers need to figure out that they need more weapons and a different approach at higher levels; those lessons are normally delivered through a sound thumping, which is probably for the best.

The lone bright spot on offence was reclamation project Chad Hermanson, whose three hits included a home run. Russ Adams doubled in his first Triple-A at-bat, but was stranded there and went hitless the rest of the day. Among other positive signs, Rule 5 acquisition Talley Haines was masterful in three scoreless innings of two-hit relief, while Dave Maurer and newly acquired Jason Frasor each added a shutout frame.


New Hampshire 3 New Britain 2

It was a successful franchise debut for the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, as they won a nail-biter on the road from local rival New Britain, defeating top Twins prospect JD Durbin in the process. For you trivia buffs out there, Dominic Rich got the first Fisher Cat hit, while Cameron Reimers recorded the first strikeout and got the first win with 5 solid innings (5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR). Reimers was ably supported by his bullpen, as fast-tracked Brandon League threw two shutout innings (97 mph fastball, just one hit), to be followed by Kevin Frederick (struck out the side) and Adam Peterson (his first save).

Robert Cosby was the hitting hero, cranking New Hampshire's first-ever home run into the wind and adding two more hits and all three RBIs. Aaron Hill and Maikel Jova also had safeties in their first Double-A games. The celebrations in Manchester, which has waited two years for a ballclub, were immediate and heartfelt. It’s only been one pre-season and one game, but I already like this city and this hard-working franchise.


Dunedin 14 Clearwater 11

Yikes! Didn’t someone say the Florida State League was a pitchers’ circuit? Not last night in Clearwater, as the two teams combined for 25 runs in the D-Jays’ extra-inning victory. After blowing a four-run lead in the bottom of the ninth to allow a tie, Dunedin pushed across 3 runs in the top of the 11th to seal their first victory of 2004. Like his mirror image David Bush, Josh Banks received a rude welcome to his new level, getting touched up for 4 runs in 2 innings (though just 1 was earned) on 4 hits; more positively, he struck out 3 and walked nobody. Most of the relievers who followed him failed to do much better: including Neomar Flores (2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 0 K), Jamie Vermilyea (2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1BB, 1 K), and the ninth-inning combo of Francisco Ozuna and Bubbie Buzachero (combined 1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K). Riding to the rescue were Chad Pleiness (shutout innings in the 5th and 6th, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 K) and Andy Torres, who pitched the last two scoreless innings (3 H, 1 BB, 3 K) for the win.

Now for the good news: the D-Jays offence came to play. They were led by centerfielder Miguel Negron, whose four hits included a double and the game-winning safety in the 11th; Negron swiped a base for good measure. Joining the hit parade were 3B Raul Tablado (homer, 3 H, 2 R, 2 RBI) and Box favourite Vito Chiaravalotti (2 hits, including his first round-tripper); right fielder Ron Davenport also homered. Leadoff hitter Jayce Tingler had two hits and a walk, scoring twice, while shortstop Manny Mayorson added two hits of his own. It was an exciting start to 2004 for what should be the Blue Jays’ best farm team.


Delmarva 6, Charleston 4

History almost repeated itself last night in Charleston, where once again the Delmarva Shorebirds held the Alley-Cats perfect through 5 innings on Opening Day. Last year’s game went to the 9th inning before the perfecto was broken up; last night, the Cats broke through in the 6th inning, but the end result was the same. Charleston starter Danny Core was hit hard, allowing all 6 runs on 10 hits and a homer (no walks, 2 Ks) in 4 1/3 IP. Bright spots on offence included third baseman Eric Arnold, who singled, doubled, scored a run and drove one in, and young catching prospect Robby Diaz, who drove in 2 runs with a single. The Alley-Cats felt badly for letting down the home crowd, but they also promised better things ahead.


With Opening Day now behind us, it’s time to introduce a new feature here in the Batter’s Box minor-league corner: the Three-Star Selection. As every Canadian with a pulse (and many others, too) knows, the Three Stars are selected to recognize the top achievers in each game. In our version, we’ll be recognizing the three Jays prospects who had the best performances in the previous day’s games (since we’re unabashedly hometown rooters, only Jay prospects will be eligible). Each Three-Star Selection earns a player points, based on his ranking; the players with the most points at the end of the year will be declared the organization’s Three Stars of 2004 and will be honoured accordingly.

So, for our first Three-Star Selection, please give it up for:

Our Third Star: Cameron Reimers, Manchester (5 innings of 5-hit ball, recording the first win in Fisher Cat history) – 1 point

Our Second Star: Miguel Negron, Dunedin (4 hits, including the game-winning single in extra innings) – 3 points

Our First Star: Robert Cosby, Manchester (3 hits, 3 RBIs, and the first home run in Fisher Cats history) - 5 points


Finally, here’s a useful stat package to get your minor-league analysis off to a good start: a series of minor-league park factors for each full-season farm team’s stadium throughout baseball. A completely neutral home park has a score of 1,000; hitters’ parks score above 1,000 and pitchers’ parks score below it. Here’s a look at the Blue Jay farm teams’ parks, as well as the average score of all the parks in their league (all data is from the 2003 season only):

Syracuse 997 (International League 986)
New Hampshire unknown (Eastern League 1029)
Dunedin 939 (Florida State League 896)
Charleston 962 (South Atlantic League 950)

Interestingly, three of the Jays’ home parks actually play as stronger hitters’ stadiums than the league as a whole. On the surface, this bodes well for the organization’s highly touted pitching prospects, who often play in tougher conditions at home than on the road. This study, by Baseball America, will no doubt require more research and refinement over time, but this is an excellent start and a real service to minor-league forecasters.

Minor-League Update | 29 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#73266) #
Great stuff, guys. Thanks for the park factors. Does anyone have dimensions on the temporary park in Manchester?
Gerry - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#73267) #
Great summary Jordan.

It was interesting to see comments from Syracuse, Dunedin and Charleston that the teams might have been too excited to start the season at home. One manager thought that starting on the road would be better. Sound like any major league club you know?
_Kristian - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#73268) #
Ill be interested in seeing if League strikes out more guys in a relief role. He hit 97 yet had no K's in 2 innings and for a guy who throws as hard as he does batters do not swing and miss very often.
_Ryan01 - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#73269) #
Foul lines extend just 312 feet to the wall. Left-center and right-center field gaps increase to 370 feet, leading to the 400-foot wall. The outfield wall ranges in height, from four to 12 feet.

Mike, that's from Kevin Gray at the Union Leader yesterday.
Mike Green - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#73270) #
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040408parkfactors.html
Thanks, Ryan01, for the info. Sounds like a hitter's park.

Incidentally, one needs to take the BA park and league factors with a grain of salt. Different periods (one-year for the park factors, longer (?) for the league) seem to be used, resulting in league factors that are higher than all the parks in the league or lower than all the parks in the league. COMN and check out the FSL, Carolina and California Leagues.
_jim854 - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#73271) #
Great summary, Jordan! I loved reading it.

Tonight I am going to the Dunedin Jays home opener and can't wait to see the team in action. This should be a really good team with a boatload of Jays' prospects.

Will let you know what happens tomorrow.

Keep up the good work!
_Kristian - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#73272) #
Does anyone know when Rosario makes his first start? I cant wait to see what he do this year and how quickly he moves up the system. Both for the Jays and my fantasy team that signed him to a 5 year 1 buck deal!
_Steve Z - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#73273) #
Kris, according to BA, Rosario starts tonight for Dunedin.

Jim, we'd love to hear your highlights from the game (and the same goes to anyone going to see Jays prospects in action throughout the season). The more qualitative data we can get on Jays prospects -- from fans and scouts alike -- the more meaningful our quantitative data will be.
_sef - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#73274) #
ha, Miggy Negron comes out smokin'...it'd be a bit amusing if three recent first round "signability" picks (Negron, Rios and to a lesser extent, Vernon Wells) all turned out to be capable major leaguers. It might even dissuade Ricciardi from drafting another low-ceiling hitter like Russ Adams in the first round.
_Brent - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#73275) #
Does anyone know where Chi-Hung Chen is starting this year? I recall J.P. saying something about him starting in Charleston, but it seems he isn't on their roster.
Craig B - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#73276) #
Russ Adams is in no way a low-ceiling hitter. He was (once stats are park- and competition-adjusted) one of the very best hitters in the entire NCAA in 2002. Not one of the best middle infielders; one of the best regardless of position. I don't remember exactly where he ended up, but I think it was top 20.

Adams is not going to be a big-time power hitter in the majors, but he has a very high ceiling as a leadoff man, which is - coincidentally enough - exactly what this team needs down the road.
_Steve Z - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#73277) #
Brent, we haven't heard anything on Chi-Hung since January, when John Manuel gave his take on the Cheng signing in BA's Jays Prospects Chat:

We probably should have done a story on this, but our reports on him from source in Taiwan are not good. He was overused at ages 15-16 and has had some injuries in the past, which was how the Jays got him, and not a club with scouts in Asia. In fact, one source quoted one of his coaches in Taiwan as saying Cheng's arm looked "deformed" compared to the way it looked prior to his overuse.

We'll assume for now that Cheng showed up to minor league spring training, and is now awaiting his pro debut (in Pulaski or Auburn) in June.

As Johnny mentioned in the Jays Roundup thread, and as speculated by Gleeman, Toronto scooped up sidearm reliever Michael Nakamura, who was recently waived by the Twins. Nakamura still has an option remaining, and will likely start in an already-full SkyChiefs pen. Gleeman recently gave an assessment of Nakamura, and there is a great profile of the Japanese-born Aussie, from a year ago, at mlb.com.
Pistol - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#73278) #
It might even dissuade Ricciardi from drafting another low-ceiling hitter like Russ Adams in the first round.

I highly doubt the Jays’ philosophy would change much because of a couple of players. They’re always going to stress performance over tools.

And hypothetically say the Jays did change their philosophy to toolsy players. Who’s to say that JP & Co would even be able to pick out the toolsy players that would make it like the former regime did? The success the Jays had drafting in the 1st round in the 90s is tough to beat.

I can see the Jays taking HS players, just not toolsy players.
_sef - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#73279) #
Adams is a 23 yr old 2B who hasn't shown much extra base power in the minors while consistently posting sub .800 OPSes; sorry, don't see the potential there. Now if he were two years younger....
_Steve Z - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#73280) #
Justin Miller v. Dave Gassner at Syracuse. You can listen here.

Adams had a leadoff double for the second straight game (helping your case, Craig) but it's 0-0 in the second.

The Chiefs also added Greg Zaun to their roster today. He should serve as Q's backup for the time being.
_Steve Z - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#73281) #
Oops. Here's the proper link for the Zaun acquisition.
_Robbie Goldberg - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#73282) #
I thought Reimers was sent to Mnnesota as a PTBL in the Stewart deal, no?
_Ryan01 - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#73283) #
Gassner was sent to Minny in the Stewart deal.
_Geoff - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#73284) #
Any idea on how the roster will be shuffled to make way for Nakamura and Zaun?
_Ryan01 - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#73285) #
Zaun will likely just bump Umbria back into extended spring training. As for Nakamura there are two possibilities that I can think of:

1) One of Lukasiewicz, Maurer, Smith, Matos, Haines, Chulk or Frasor join Cassidy and Durocher in limbo, my money would be on Lukasiewicz getting his release.
2) Chulk goes back to to the rotation and either Baker or Chen gets bumped to AA.
_Ryan01 - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#73286) #
Gassner pitched a heck of a game today BTW. After the leadoff double by Adams in the first Dave pitched 5 perfect innings with 4 K's.
_ainge_fan - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#73287) #
Ryan01, I doubt you're surprised about Gassner's good start...I've always liked him and I'll keep wishing him well, even if one day he's shutting down the Fighting Jays - just maybe a less if its in the playoffs.
I'll be very interested to see how Chulk and Smith do in the pen - in TO, Smith tended to be wild early in starts but did fine entering games later; Chulk, I think will get a little bit more out of his fastball and we should start hearing a bit more about how good his slider is.
_Ryan01 - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#73288) #
Hey aingefan... I remember us talking a couple years ago regarding the lack of lefthanded prospects in the Jays system and you pointed out Gassner while I had high hopes for Matt Ford. Now they're both gone and the system is still short on lefthanded talent. I was really hoping Gassner would be around this year to anchor the Syracuse rotation and maybe "pull a Kershner" midseason (That sounds like it hurts, eh?). I will also be rooting for Gas to get a shot in the majors whereever he plays.
_Ryan01 - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#73289) #
Hey aingefan... I remember us talking a couple years ago regarding the lack of lefthanded prospects in the Jays system and you pointed out Gassner while I had high hopes for Matt Ford. Now they're both gone and the system is still short on lefthanded talent. I was really hoping Gassner would be around this year to anchor the Syracuse rotation and maybe "pull a Kershner" midseason (That sounds like it hurts, eh?). I will also be rooting for Gas to get a shot in the majors whereever he plays.
_The Impatient R - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#73290) #
Argh.... I swear I only hit the button once ;D
Craig B - Friday, April 09 2004 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#73291) #
sef, Adams isn't a 2B. He's a shortstop. Geez. And he hasn't shown extra-base power because he's been hitting leadoff. Do you like your leadoff man swinging for the fences? I don't.

Adams is far from a sure thing, and I'd rather his OBPs be around .410s rather than .380, but he looks like he will be a serviceable major leaguer - IF he can keep the errors down. I was a bit dismayed by his performance in Florida because it seemed that he was rushing his throws which is exactly the thing he needs to work on most.

Adams doesn't have a cannon, which is why there is a lot of talk of moving him to second (that, and the fact that a very large number of people seem to have a considerable investment in seeing him fail - for whatever reason). But his arm should be serviceable at short if he can play the position smart. This is what he wasn't doing this spring, but it's not uncommon for green players to rush themselves when dealing for the first time with guys with big-league speed.

I had always been dismissive of the reports about Adams not having the necessary arm. After this past spring, I'm a touch less sure.

Now I also wanted to address Steve Z's comment where he posted an excerpt from a Baseball America chat that said on the subject of Chi-Hung Cheng:

We probably should have done a story on this, but our reports on him from source in Taiwan are not good. He was overused at ages 15-16 and has had some injuries in the past, which was how the Jays got him, and not a club with scouts in Asia. In fact, one source quoted one of his coaches in Taiwan as saying Cheng's arm looked "deformed" compared to the way it looked prior to his overuse.

The first thing I'll say is that that was a good chat (best part - comparison of Simon Pond to Dan Pasqua), and John Manuel does try to be fair and seems to me to be a solid guy.

One of the things that you get used to when you see a lot of reports on players is having to separate what looks factual from what looks made-up. Scouts and agents (and remember that outside North America, those two groups are often dangerously intermixed) have a way of ripping down on a guy who has jilted them. Ripping down fierce. Hell hath no fury like a scout (or especially agent) scorned (read Dollar Sign on the Muscle for a few interesting examples), and the first thing they often aim at is a player's health, trying to create what I like to call FUD about the player. (FUD = Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt).

This comment reads like FUD. The BA guys love to spread FUD, because they like to be shown to have "inside information". One of the ways you get that is by reporting off-the-wall stuff that comes from scouts, stuff that nobody sees. They are, as a rule, immensely uncritical in what they will say - though obviously since they didn't want to put this in the magazine you should definitely draw your own conclusions.

There are two parts of that comment that might be true - that he pitched a lot at a young age (very common in Taiwan) and that there may have been past injuries. I wouldn't give the rest the time of day. You're looking at an agent who didn't land him, or a scout from another organization, telling someone a fairy story because they didn't sign him and either wanted to punish Cheng by lowering his stock, or wanted a quick excuse (and it may not be BA - someone may be giving them this secondhand).
_sef - Saturday, April 10 2004 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#73292) #
yes craig, I know he was drafted as an SS but the 2B comment was based on the belief that he was unsuited to play that position in the majors for the exact reason you described: arm strength...

surely you're not implying that extra-base power can only be achieved at the expense of a mediocre OBP? while it's never good for a player to swing for the fences on every pitch, a .388 SLG is truly pathetic even for a leadoff hitter. Even Orlando Hudson (who, while capable, is hardly first round draft choice material) put up SLGs in the mid to high .400s in the minors at a similar age while maintaining a healthy OBP.

All of which harkens back to my claim about him being a "low-ceiling hitter", by which I mean that I don't see him improving leaps and bounds beyond his current offensive skill level.
_R Billie - Saturday, April 10 2004 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#73293) #
Adams has two doubles in two games so far. Let's see where he ends up this year before determining he won't improve much. I find that there's often a huge level of impatience with college hitters because apparently they're supposed to step in and tear up the minor leagues right away which just isn't the case. Orlando Hudson had about two to three times as much minor league experience by the time he reached the age Adams is now. To hear JP tell it, the college ranks are not comparable to even the lowest level of the minors in terms of difficulty.

When Gross stalled in AA his first full season he had to repeat the level and people are still questioning his power now that he's reached AAA despite the fact he routinely hits the ball 400+ feet in batting practice. Power is usually the last thing to develop and Gross will eventually convert his strength to be usable in games.

This is just Adams' SECOND full season of professional baseball. When he was drafted it was predicted he'd have good gap power because he hit hard line drives to all fields which a chance to develop some modest over the fence power down the road. I don't think he'll have a problem getting his slugging into the mid 400's and he's got a lot more going for him on the defensive, plate discipline, and intangible side of things. As far as his arm, there are a number of current major league shortstops with comparable arms to Adams'. His throwing routines definately needs some work and he probably won't win a gold glove at the position but he can make the routine plays.
Coach - Saturday, April 10 2004 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#73294) #
To hear JP tell it, the college ranks are not comparable to even the lowest level of the minors in terms of difficulty.

I asked Joe Breeden the same question; he was a Division I head coach before managing in the minors. He says in addition to the level of competition (there are some relatively weak arms in college bullpens, but not in the pros) it's a big step for many young players to get used to playing every day. Most NCAA programs play once during the week, with three or four weekend games. There is both a physical and mental challenge; that adjustment doesn't happen overnight.

Regarding Cheng, it's not as if Charleston is desperate for pitching help and needs him right away. If he stays in extended spring training, pitches for Auburn or Pulaski and goes to the Olympics, that's a pretty good year of development for a teenager who is making an enormous cultural adjustment at the same time.
Minor-League Update | 29 comments | Create New Account
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