i love Pinango. He plays like his hair is on fire.

Return to the House of Horrors.

That was quite the start for Lauer.

I feel like I watched 50 games exactly like this in 2024.

2024: 16-19
2025: 16-19
2026: 16-19

Hopefully they can move ahead of last years pace with a win tomorrow - in '25 they lost game 36 to the Angels (16-20), then won 4 in a row to get back to 500, got above 500 May 22nd (25-24), May 30th they moved over 500 for good (29-28).

Right now things are getting sorted out - Pinango is going to play a lot this week I suspect, to decide if he should keep playing once Barger is back. Straw is the best backup RH hitter on the team right now with his 815 OPS. Okamoto has settled in quite nicely (787 OPS), Clement & Varsho both over 700 but not by much, Gimenez (as expected) has fallen under 700. Jesús Sánchez might find himself with more bench time if he doesn't get that 250/288/398 line moving up. Springer should be hitting better if he can ever get healthy. Sosa is a 'why is he here' guy with that 262/256/405 line. Valenzuela has looked great with the glove but the bat needs more work (651 OPS) but is acceptable for a catcher - Heineman I have to think will be kept when Kirk comes back but that 398 OPS puts him in danger.

Lukes & Schneider ... well, Lukes was hitting a heck of a lot better before he got hurt so I think he'll get a shot, but Schneider has to be seen as an 'oh crap, now what' situation with that 137/323/255 line which is partially saved by his walks - I can't help but figure Buffalo will be in his future starting when Barger returns this weekend.

So Schneider will be the first to go (has options) followed by Sosa, with Valenzuela fighting hard to take Heineman's backup job away. Barger-Sanchez-Pinango-Lukes are 4 LH OF'ers but will be in a 'win it' challenge in LF/RF with Varsho/Straw sharing CF and Straw getting time in LF/RF as well, at least until his bat cools.

I wouldn't be surprised in the least if the Jays do a trade for a RH OF bat with a team that has an excess of them for one of our LH OF bats. Wonder if the Dodgers would be interested in trading Alex Call (31 year old OF who hits well but never gets to play full time, just 14 G this year despite a 144 OPS+) or Teoscar (105 OPS+ this year at age 33 with team/vesting options the next 2 years) - as always they are buried in depth everywhere. Can't imagine LAA would trade Trout or that the Jays would take on his massive contract. Houston is flopping bad, but the only hitter that attracts me is Yordan Alvarez and no way they are trading him unless they get a kings ransom. Christian Walker having a killer start but is a 1B/DH. I must be missing something because it seems there are virtually no RH OF out there who the Jays could trade for - normally there are a few backups/platoon types who teams would be willing to trade but I can't find any. Anyone else?

It is hard to find trades as you don't really know what teams value, and it isn't like you are going to get something for nothing. Most guys will either be too bad or too expensive. If it is really a like for like where you are just switching a RH for LH but guys who hit/field similarly you need teams with the RH depth which is hard to find.

I looked at teams with worse records with the Jays, figuring some of them might be more willing to flip pieces for more future and/or change of scenery. These are the RH choices I could see:

Think the Twins would do Berrios for Austin Martin? Martin has a 915 OPS this year, and 736 for his career and is still only 27 and plays not just LF but also some CF. Realistically if he comes back and looks healthy and good maybe Lukes + something gets it done since Lukes is still cost controlled to 2031 same as Martin (but Lukes is 4+ years older so think you need more)?

Other teams with multiple candidates so maybe one of them could be had:

Baltimore: Taylor Ward + Tyler O'Neill
Angles: Jo Adell + Mike Trout
Astros: Jose Altuve + Cam Smith + Brice Matthews

Or some maybe only one candidate: Mets with Tyrone Taylor (old and not very good, so probably cheap) or SF with Heliot Ramos (young and ok-ish, so probably quite a bit more expensive).

I suspect hoping for upgrade from better health might make more sense than forcing a move.

Tyler Freeman in COL looks interesting. I'd overpay to get Jac Caglianone out of KC. I still like Brandon Lowe if PIT falls out of the race (and move Ernie to SS/OF).

For fun I checked Kyle Tucker: currently at 97 DRC+, 101 OPS+, 101 wRC+ - very mediocre by any measure. Of course, he is mostly in RF where the Jays have an 62 wRC+ right now so he would've been an improvement but nowhere near what would've been expected to date. Now, going forward, would he be better than the assorted stuff we have in LF/RF (namely Pinango 210, Straw 129, Sanchez 85, Schneider 76, Lukes 70, Barger -16). Safe to say Barger will be far better once back than his -16. Lukes was hitting up a storm the last few days before getting hurt once he figured out his issue (vertigo). Schneider was a 127 last year so I expect some improvement going forward. Sanchez is a 97 lifetime so I don't expect a lot more from him sadly. Straw & Pinango are due for major regressions but we'll enjoy the ride while they are hot.

So Tucker would've helped, but how much is arguable thus far. For all OF the Jays have a 96 wRC+ which is 17th in the majors. Move up to 14th when you factor in defense and baserunning. The Cubs & Yankees are 1/2 with over 3 fWAR so far from their OF'ers. Dodgers are 5th at 2.2 with a 115 wRC+ btw.

Austin Marin would be interesting to reclaim but the Twins are in cheap mode as always and would have zero interest in Berrios unless the Jays paid his whole salary. Lukes is a 4th OF so I doubt he gets it done, wonder if they are Sosa curious or feel they could fix Schneider? After years of working on Martin I'd be shocked if they were willing to trade him now that he finally appears to be producing.

One underreported issue for the Jays this season is the deterioration of their team defence. They were the top team in the MLB last year in team DRS. They are mid pack this year at 13th. Interestingly, two noticeable differences are in CF (where they have Varsho and Shaw as league average (down from elite last year)) and SS where DRS is not a fan of Gimenez's defence so far at SS (relative to his defence at 2B). Its early for relying too heavily on defensive metrics as the sample sizes remain smallish. However, a drop off in team defence overall and Varsho not playing defence at the same level as the past couple of seasons definitely match the eye test. I do think that defence can slump so I think we should hope for better days on that front.

On the surface, Vlad's numbers are really good. Top 10 in BA and OBP, 139 wRC+.
But where is his power? His .100 ISO is 146th of 179 qualified - that's 19th percentile. Even on the Jays, Brandon Valenzuela has more HR's and Myles Straw a higher SLG%. We saw in the playoffs his power was still there when it mattered. Trading some singles for doubles or especially HR's would go a long way in keeping the Jays offence afloat.

Jays D definitely worse this year. Fangraphs has biggest dropoff in D as Clement who they graded as elite last year and negative so far this season. Varsho also worse and Jesus Sanchez has not been good. They give good grades to Valuenzuela and Heinemen but I think this is one of the issues with measuring D, especially catcher D, because those two directly cost the Jays three wins with their defence so far.

Clement as an elite defender is a very good player. As a league average defender, he's more of a utility player. Varsho as an elite defender, is a fantastic player, as an average fielder, he's a decent player. Sanchez as a bad defender isn't a major leaguer. It's still early, so I hope some of this turns around but it's noticeable.

bigger problem is that Gimenez' barely good enough 90wrc+ is likely still being buoyed by a hot start. He's down around 60wrc+ for his last 100pa or so. which unfortunately for him is not unusual territory. and so far this year he's hitting worse than ever vLHP.

at some point a winning organization has to ask themselves if he should really be an unquestioned fulltime starter.

UZR and DRS are seeing the middle infielders completely oppositely on defence so far this year (so fWAR and bWAR on Clement and Gimenez are totally different). DRS still likes Clement but not Gimenez and vice versa. Neither system particularly likes Varsho's defence. Neither system is particularly reliable this early on in the year but UZR has always seemed even less reliable/consistent with the eye test until there is much more data. I'm not sure what to make of the middle infielders' defence this year other than "not as good as last year".

Frankly, I think that there is very little to choose between Varsho, Clement and Gimenez as players. Their offensive profiles are vastly different but they net out over a season similarly. Varsho is a slightly better hitter than Clement but that is offset but how often he can get on the field. Its pretty much a wash all around.

I think any loss in defensive value will be made up by John Schneider's WAR rating through May 4th. His WAR went up 0.8 from the April 7th game alone when he was ejected for arguing Gausman's balk.

yeah tbh i'd still see all fielding metrics as mostly noise at this point.

heck, i see most offensive numbers still as mostly noise at this point of the season, and that's a much much larger sample of data than fielding.

Clement had a +10drs in 423 innings at 2B last year. Has a +0drs so far through 239 innings at 2B this year.

Giminez had a +0drs in 119 innings at SS last year, and a -4drs through 276 innings at SS this year. (what's funny about that is that he's on about the same pace as Bo's -12drs in 1139 innings last year).


What's interesting to me is that despite their respective styles, there's building evidence that Clement is at least as good if not better with the glove than Gimenez.

Over this year and last year:

At SS

Clement: 204inn, +0drs
Gimenez: 395inn, -4drs

At 2B

Clement: 662inn, +10drs
Gimenez: 720inn, +9drs
(Schneider: 148inn, +0drs)
(Sosa: 804inn, -10drs)

DRS since 2023:

SS

Clement: 618inn, +9drs (+19.7 per1350inn)
Gimenez: 395inn, -4drs (-13.7 per1350)

2B

Gimenez: 3359inn, +51drs (+20.5 per1350)
Clement: 698inn, +10drs (+19.3 per1350)
Schneider: 657inn, -1drs (-2.1 per1350)
Sosa: 1526inn, -17drs (-15.0 per1350)


of course, despite the numbers they seem convinced that Schneider can't handle 2B while Sosa can, and that Gimenez is a better fielder than Clement.

Those numbers show something that I have been wondering about for the last week or two: assuming Okamoto can handle 3B, maybe the best defensive alignment is Clement at SS and Gimenez at 2B. Then, you form a bit of a platoon at 2B with Gimenez and Schneider.

Nigel, there is no UZR anymore. FG now uses statcast.

We there you go:) That would explain some things!

I like that idea of shifting Ernie to SS. Would like even better if the FO can upgrade at the deadline at 2B and use Gimenez and Ernie as platoon+.

I think D will likely be OK in the end even if not elite. Biggest issue for me is still the number of OK but not great players. They don't have a single player who is top-5 at their position in baseball right now. This is most apparent at corner OF where Sanchez, Lukes, Barger, and now Pinango all look ok but marginal. In the end, a lot of problems will be solved by getting Kirk and Springer healthy.

Time for my annual "the Jays should trade for Mike Trout" post. This is it. I usually prefer to post in 'buy low' moments, but here we are.

Berrios reported some soreness in his elbow after his last start so he is going for an MRI.

yeah Glevin this lineup is built on one star hitter (vladdy), two good to very good guys (Springer, Kirk), and then solid average the rest of the way.

missing springer and kirk obviously undercuts the lineup a lot.

but also - not using the depth properly and giving yourself substantially below average production in a slot just based on arguable lineup decisions (when healthy of course) would also be a potential big hit to the team offense .

Day off for Vladdy who has been scuffling recently.

i would never object to a trout trade tbh.

Long sequence offence, light on power, is also subject to the vagueries of exactly how you sequence your hits and walks. You are more exposed to the whim of the Baseball Gods when you lack middle order power. That's a chunk of 2026 v 2025.

Just noticed FanGraphs has rest of the season projections by position on a nice table. Jays are over 3 at C/1B and in the 2's at 2B/SS/3B/CF, 1's at LF/RF/DH. Starters at 11, relief 3. Overall WAR 5th in majors, 7th pitching/8th hitters. #1 at 1B, 6th C, 15th 2B, 19th SS, 9th 3B, 15th LF, 12th CF, 16th RF, 8th DH, 9th starters, 5th bullpen.

This suggests the easiest improvements are 2B/SS, LF/RF which isn't a shock. Top 10 for starters and for the pen is a bit of a surprise. Arizona is #1 at 2B with Ketel Marte despite his 73 OPS+ so far (they expect him to return to normal) - given he is signed for 4 more years ($77 mil) plus a player option at age 37 for $11.5 mil after this year they might be more open to a trade now. That could jump 2B/SS nicely - although odds are they'd want Clement to cover 2B for them unless they can be talked into Schneider or Sosa (heh) - that'd be a 1.4 WAR improvement via projections if done just this year, if Marte is just slumping and not in a permanent hole of course. Their SS isn't available I'm certain - had a 7 WAR season last year and signed for 4 more years at $15 mil or less each year and only 30 when the last year of that hits.

LF/RF is a lot harder strangely enough - normally there are tons of good OF around but, as when looking for a good RH option the trade possibilities are slim. Most significant improvements are on contenders which makes deals harder to make or involves teams with franchise players (Soto, Carroll) who ain't moving at any reasonable price. So how to improve? If Barger can outdo his projection (sub 1 WAR he should beat), similar for guys like Pinango (projected at 0.0 on FG), Springer (proj 1.6), plus if you add another IF like Marte you could get Clement time in LF maybe if the others are slumping. Lots of possibilities but damn does the trade market for hitting that could help look barren.

3-for-9 the last 2 games.

As one of the best hitters in the league so far that is considered a struggle I suppose.

Vlad is 3-9 over his last two games. Why pick two games?

May be because he is 3-17 over his last four games and 4-21 over his last five.

The guy I'd really want is Yordan Alvarez. Not sure he'll be available but Houston is bad and probably want to rebuild. He'd take a ton but he's worth a ton. Trout would be great but has negative trade value even with a great year. Will be lots of guys available I'm sure but hopefully some internal options improve and make that less necessary.

So he's sitting today because he went hitless 3 and 4 games ago? Is this like pulling the pitcher in the 4th inning because he made some bad pitches in the first?
Vlad has also been the DH recently.

i think vlad's been showing some frustration lately so just giving him a blow.

Houston mostly needs starting pitching.
The Jays don't have a ton of pitching prospects.

He was scuffling, so he played DH and got 2 hits.
I gave up on the game yesterday as soon as it was 3-nothing without an out.
I think he's getting too old to sit because of poor results.
I'm not optimistic on Sosa to be honest.

Kazu on pace for a cool 45 hr.

It's not hard to see why Sanchez could be had for the low price of Loperfido. There's a lot of raw power but he offers very little else. He's at some risk to his role when Lukes returns.

Whether his early struggles were a slump or an adjustment period, he seems to be making both better contact and swing decisions. He'll be a great player if he can maintain this level of play, obviously, but I'll be curious if he ends up making a little more contact as well. In Japan the league-average strikeout rate has hovered around 19% in recent years; Okamoto was modestly below the average until the past couple years, where he cut his strikeout rate significantly. His overall contact rate, after his first couple weeks, has been about 70% for the Jays, which is pretty low. All of which is to say, there's a pretty good reason to think Okmamoto might improve his contact rate and cut his strikeouts pretty significantly from their current level.

yeah he was struggling hugetime with the nasty mlb breaking balls but he's seemed to figure them out already, which is a pretty impressively quick adjustment.

I'm impressed by the poise of Valenzuela and although it's a big set back going from Kirk to him or Heineman I do believe Valenzuela is making the most and improving significantly by the time Kirk returns which bodes well for everyone.

I’ve been impressed by Valenzuela too. He’s a solid defender. Not sure he’s ever going to be a good offensive player but he has power and the quality of his ABs have steadily gotten better. Plus, switch hitting C’s are found gold.

Jays are playing good baseball especially with the injuries. They are having some bad luck this season.

This is normal luck at the Trop.

Yeah this series has gone the way virtually every series has gone there for the last 20 years. I'm just hoping no one gets injured.

That would have been fun while it lasted...

If not, ya know, for the nine-inning sense of impending doom

The play-by-play guys just *HAD* to say "Rogers has given up only 1 ER in 16.x innings".. Talk about inviting the Trop jinx.

The radio guys said the same thing...plenty of jinx blame to go around :)

I agree that Clement6 Gimenez4 might be a better defensive alignment than Gimenez6 Clement4, but at this point the chances the team swaps them is slim. Gimenez is an excellent 2B but seems just average+ at SS, so they might as well play him at his best spot and let Clement provide similar SS defense. Gimenez probably keeps last night's game winning hit in the infield at the very least. Also, when Vladdy gets the half day at DH the defense would be better with Okamoto at 1B and Clement at 3B, but the team likely just wants to keep guys in their positions. Sosa missed a very makeable play the other night at 1B that led to a run, albeit on a hard hit ball.

It's a shame that Schneider isn't doing what he said he would with the bullpen. Since removing Hoffman from the role Rogers has blown two one-run games in the 8th against the heart of the opponent's order while Varland watched from the bench, being held back for the 9th because he's the Closer.

Yeah even with the bad luck and injuries I'd say they've given away 5 games by making very costly errors or mismanaging the bullpen. At least 5. I don't see that happening with Kevin Cash if he had the same tools.

Of course, as Wilner says a LOT on his podcast - it isn't 100% Schneiders decision to make. The team does pre-game meetings where they decide if situation x happens then you use player y in relief, etc. Schneider's main job is to keep things together - keep the team as a team, control egos and maximize how productive players can be. He has a big role I'm sure in deciding who pitches when but it isn't all his decision. If you were the GM wouldn't you want some control over how the parts you brought in are used? Safe to say health and personal preferences for the players is also a big consideration - a player who feels best pitching in the 8th should be left to that (Rogers) if possible. Ego massaging is a big deal. We see it with Vlad batting 3rd as he prefers 3rd to 2nd, when 2nd might be a better spot for him.

The problem with that is is removes any accountability. What if they come out and say "it's not the players decisions completely on which pitches to swing at as they have a pre game routine where they are encouraged to focus on hitting pitches in this quadrant of the zone or of this type." At a certain point whether someone decides for themselves or is told it's still their role and their responsibility. A lot of Schneider's decisions may be predetermined but that's still his final decision and he's the only one who can correct or right a formulated plan. If it was me and I had to work with a predetermined path like "Rogers has to come in for the 8th," then I would follow that but I would also have Varland ready to come in after 1 batter if my gut felt like pre-determined move was not the right move. Basically obey your boss but have a quick correction strategy.

Good point - but there are things we know they aren't responsible for, for example with rare exception (catchers) they aren't allowed to do pitch challenges. They probably should tell Vlad to stop it with those too, and tell Valenzuela not to use them early on unless painfully obvious (ie: down the middle but called a ball). Plus in other situations when we learn a coach told them to have a shorter lead - can't blame a player for having a short lead when the coach demands they get back. Now, I see a pitcher shake off a catcher then throw a meatball that is the pitchers fault, can't blame the catcher for that call or the bench.

Sosa batting clean-up is an unnecessary own goal. I have zero clue what has prompted this infatuation with Sosa but its pretty weird. The team needs to play nearly .600 ball the rest of the way just to get to 90 wins. Definitely possible but its starting to get late.

Apparently Barger is definitely back on Friday.

You would think that they would want Okamoto's power batting behind Vladdy the singles hitter/walker, especially because they will likely have a LHB in the 2 spot soon.

i mean it should be vladdy in the 2 hole but we've been through that.

I'm glad Sosa is batting clean up. It means "you're getting DFA'd after this game so here is your dream to bat clean up in MLB before you go." Or so we hope.

Sosa is not a good player and I don't see any upside there either. Hard to be a good player if you never walk. Jays just having so many bad abs today. Part of it is injuries but also part of it is that the front office having an imbalanced roster with not good enough vs LH players despite a ton of lefties in the division. Like, the Jays would have been better off signing Lane Thomas for 1/$5.25 than trading for Sanchez.

Kind of dicey if you're the manager to go into a series 16-18 in third place and come out of it 16-21 and possibly tied for last after being swept while this happened:

Your top hitter from last year, George Springer, sits 1 game out of 3 while he says he's ready to play.

Your best hitter, Vlad, sits 1 game out of 3.

Jesus Sanchez and Lenin Sosa bat clean up every game.

Louis Varland, your top bullpen arm, pitches less than two innings and only while trailing. Currently he's pitched 1 inning in this series while we're in the bottom of the 8th as I write this.


Just not a good look at all to have your start player taking a breather 35 games into the season, your close pitching while trailing etc etc.

*star not start and closer not close. Wow bad play from Vladdy to receive that ball from Ernie...

Very very glad I decided to watch, at most, ten minutes of this series. Games at the Trop are just so aesthetically revolting it disrupts my overall enjoyment of any baseball.

The thing is, Schneider was managing the same way last year and many of the decisions that didn't make sense worked. He managed the same way in 2024 and many of those decisions didn't work. Baseball Gods are fickle. The bigger issue is that today's line-up was pretty thin looking from the outset and it was only missing Kirk from what would be rolled out with a fully healthy roster.

I agree on Schneider's managing. He's better than average but not great. I don't grade managers based on wins as much as the decisions they make that help the team have a better chance to win. That's on field moves and the vibe/mojo.

Terry Francona, Kevin Cash and AJ Hinch are at the top... then you go to middle of the pack which is where Schneider is and probably Roberts.

Some manager's I have never seen manage include: Stammen, Albernaz, Schaeffer, Vitello, Venable and McCullough

Last season, John Schneider could have pinch hit IKF for Vlad in the 9th inning against Mason Miller, and it would have led to a game winning RBI single. He was routinely making poor decisions that almost always worked out. The 2025 season was one of those magical years where the Baseball Gods were on the Jays side. Schneider's decision making might be more of a concern now when luck isn't on the team's side. First off let's get healthy and see what this team actually is. The AL is awful aside from the Yankees (and I guess the Rays) so even a modest run will put the Jays in a good position.

I pointed out last year how they just seem to go limp in weekday afternoon road games and put up no offence. So far same thing's happening this year. And considering this is Tampa, they really had no hope.

Very very glad I decided to watch, at most, ten minutes of this series. Games at the Trop are just so aesthetically revolting it disrupts my overall enjoyment of any baseball.

Games there make me hate baseball. And I hate anything that does that. I'm glad today I couldn't watch, even if I wanted to.

I always watch Rays and Jays in Tropicana Field. It's some of the best baseball of the year for me. Always tight scoring great pitching and modulation. I count one series from memory in the last7 or 8 years where the Jays dominated in Tampa. It's still fun though. By contrast, the West coast trips to Seattle, LA and Oakland always end up being doozies or stinkers even though they win way more compared to games at the Trop.

Games against CLE I also find slow usually. KC same. Houston as well. NYY, BAL, BOS, CWS, DET, TEX are always enjoyable but there's something about playing those Rays in TB that I find very entertaining.

Looking at the lineup choices for #4 the pickings are slim right now. PA's in brackets. * indicates on IL. Eloy Jimenez is gone - in 35 PA had a 633 OPS.

• 800+ OPS: Pinango (26); Straw (67); Okamoto (151); Vlad (154)
• 700s: Varsho (133)
• 600s: Gimenez (128); Clement (151); Sanchez (123); Valenzuela (54); Sosa (49); *Lukes (56); Springer (84)
• 500s: *Kirk (22); Schneider (67)
• sub 400: Heineman (59); *Barger (23)

So, given we all can feel safe that Pinango and Straw aren't really 800 OPS guys right now, and probably 600's that gives you 3 decent hitters (Okamoto, Vlad, and Varsho), then a stack of meh in the 600's. This team NEEDS someone else to step up. Springer, Barger (when he returns Friday), Sanchez, whoever.

They'll have (apart from Kirk) the guys they want starting Friday, as you say they simply need to hit like we know they can

I think the ideal lineup is likely starting Springer-Vlad-Okamoto-Varsho-Clement while Kirk is injured (put Kirk 4 when comes back).

If you mandate Vlad is 3rd and Kirk is out then Springer-Clement-Vlad-Okamoto-Varsho is probably the right order for the top 5.

Maybe against some right handed pitching you could put Gimenez in for Clement, but neither of them has extreme splits despite the Clement R/Gimenez L batting. Gimenez is younger and with the better career OPS+, but Clement has been better this year and late last year with the bat so I think I'd ride him for now.

Dan Shulman just tweeted out the remarkable fact that there's only two AL teams that are over .500 at the moment.

Really like this post, dalimon.

It's hard for the manager to criticize the players for not playing hard enough when the manager is clearly not managing hard enough.

He seems to be prioritizing trying to somehow "develop" veteran players into something much more than they've always been, rather than giving his team the best chance to win.

And in a fairly big series against a direct rival where all 3 games were very tight, these kinds of decisions become very, very glaring.

I am genuinely not throwing shade at anybody when I say this, but the vast majority of this board thought that Schneider did an amazing job last year. I don't see any difference in his managing from the start of 2024 to now. Too much blame and credit goes to MLB managers. I don't think Schneider's a great in game manager but I think that's largely irrelevant when compared to how the talent performs and pure luck (good or bad).

Mike Green - I pretty much agree with all of that. As you suggest, I think the key elements from how they have been rolling out lineups would be reversing the current playing time at C to Valenzuela over Heinemann and finding a way to get Straw in the line-up more often until Lukes comes back. It isn't a major shift in emphasis but it would mean Sosa, Heinemann, Sanchez and Schneider get fewer ABs going forward. I would roll with Varsho pretty much full time but I think the Jays should be worried about paying him going forward.

"You can make a case for him (Davis Schneider) getting the full-time job"
I do not think you can actually when his OPS is .559 and is striking out at a 40% clip.  Yes, he is not this bad but he's absolutely killing them right now and shouldn't be playing at all, especially not over Straw who is currently better in pretty much every respect.  Schneider should be in Buffalo.

tbh i don't remember anyone raving about the manager last year either.

I think though that there was a big difference last year - the key turning point last year was when the team decided to stop messing around, and stopped playing strugglers like Roden and Wagner and started to play guys like Barger and Lukes and Schneider instead.

injuries have changed some things this year but we're approaching an inflection point now - will he keep using Sosa in near fulltime starting duty despite having a 70wrc+ and no projection of being better? will he send down the hot hand Pinango who's passing both the stats and eye test when we're desperate for offense (even knowing that he'll cool down at some point)?

last year they made some hard decisions and it changed the course of the season. let's see if they can do the same this year.

Yimi Garcia pitched in the FCL today.

So since being a Jay, Straw has been a dead league average 100wrc+ hitter in 366pa, in a plus size bench role, with elite defense making him a 4war pace player so far.

And this hasn't even been a platoon thing - he's actually been a tad better against RHP (102wrc+) than against LHP (98wrc+).

If none of our corner OF are going to give us significantly above-average offense, we might do worse than putting a guy in with average offense but an elite glove.

Plausible best lineup...

using Past 1 Calendar Year Stats:


1. DH Springer 555pa, .378obp, 154wrc+, 4.7war650
2. 1B Guerrero 686pa, .391obp, 140wrc+, 4.2war650
3. 3B Okamoto 151pa, .331obp, 130wrc+, 3.4war650
4. C Alejandro 423pa, .357obp, 122wrc+, 6.6war650
5. CF Varsho 387pa, .292obp, 113wrc+, 4.4war650
6. 2B Schneider 273pa, .352obp, 119wrc+, 3.3war650
7. RF Barger 486pa, .303obp, 108wrc+, 3.1war650
8. SS Clement 651pa, .319obp, 103wrc+, 3.4war650
9. LF Straw 309pa, .328obp, 101wrc+, 4.0war650

B. UT Sosa 500pa, .287obp, 100wrc+, 1.6war650
B. OF Lukes 439pa, .309obp, 97wrc+, 2.2war650
B. IF Gimenez 361pa, .292obp, 81wrc+, 2.5war650
B. C Heineman 199pa, .309obp, 77wrc+, 3.9war650

X. UT Sanchez 556pa, .297obp, 92wrc+, 1.2war650
X. OF Pinango 26pa, .423obp, 147wrc+, 7.5war650
X. IF ---
X. C Valenzuela 54pa, .259obp, 77wrc+, 4.8war650



using Fangraphs Depth Charts Projections:


1. DH Springer 475pa, .337obp, 115wrc+, 2.1war650
2. 1B Guerrero 524pa, .383obp, 144wrc+, 4.3war650
3. 3B Okamoto 438pa, .329obp, 118wrc+, 3.6war650
4. RF Barger 319pa, .313obp, 105wrc+, 2.0war650
5. C Alejandro 268pa, .348obp, 115wrc+, 6.1war650
6. LF Lukes 178pa, .335obp, 105wrc+, 2.6war650
7. 2B Schneider 227pa, .329obp, 103wrc+, 2.6war650
8. CF Varsho 465pa, .296obp, 100wrc+, 2.8war650
9. SS Clement 486pa, .309obp, 96wrc+, 2.5war650

B. UT Sanchez 319pa, .312obp, 103wrc+, 1.8war650
B. OF Straw 130pa, .303obp, 78wrc+, 1.0war650
B. IF Gimenez 470pa, .313obp, 96wrc+, 3.0war650
B. C Heineman 138pa, .295obp, 72wrc+, 2.4war650

X. UT Santander 16pa, .308obp, 102wrc+, 0.0war650
X. OF Pinango 86pa, .299obp, 84wrc+, 0.0war650
X. IF Sosa 140pa, .280obp, 87wrc+, 0.5war650
X. C Valenzuela 99pa, .275obp, 71wrc+, 2.0war650

Checking BR Straw has a 95 OPS+ and 3.3 bWAR so far here. I'd for sure keep him out there until he shows he can't keep that up. Sanchez is down to an 81 OPS+ with negative WAR, Schneider a 58 OPS+ and 0 WAR (he has made some WOW defensive plays), but right now Pinango needs to be left out there to see if he is for real or not, much like Schneider in '23, a 140 OPS+ on a team with an overall 91 is nothing to sneeze at.

So until Barger is back I'd have Pinango in LF and Straw in RF. Schneider has to be the one going down at this point unless Pinango has shown some issues we can't see as fans (400/423/440 is a touch low on power, and is counting nearly entirely on an amazing 455 BABIP). I'd be fine if Sosa was dumped (73 OPS+ as a Jay, just 1 for 10 in Tampa - guy won't walk unless forced). Right now it has to be either Schneider to AAA or Sosa released - sending down Pinango would be telling the team that performance doesn't matter.

I'm starting to find Lenyn Sosa perversely fascinating. 82 PAs this year, and not a single walk. An OBP lower than his BA. Watching him hit, I'm amazed that he somehow walked 18 times last year - it's genuinely difficult to imagine someone throwing 4 pitches he wouldn't swing at.

If you've got to be a bad player, at least find a way to make it interesting.

I find the Jays' whole obsession with Sosa perversely fascinating. I have no idea why they have latched onto him like the last floatation device on the Titanic. Occasionally you see organizations latch onto someone like this when they believe they can resurrect a "failed" top prospect. Failed top prospects almost universally have one or more interesting tools. However, Sosa was never a top prospect. His minor league history is solid enough but fairly non descript. He has no standout offensive tool and his inability to take a walk is a defining negative. He's a below average defender and base runner. I think they think they landed a different Sosa.

Maybe they need to talk with SD about their failed superstar - Fernando Tatis Jr. - he has a 71 OPS+ this year so far in 152 PA - getting to be enough to make it a concern. 0 HR as well at age 27. His 3 years pre-PED suspension he had a 160 OPS+, since a 117. They still owe him $271.7 mil after 2026 (for ages 28-35). I could see the new owner wanting to make a mark and dump a long term contract that appears to be failing. Of course, given he paid $3.9 billion for the club a $271 mil lost contract wouldn't mean much. Still, it might be a good opportunity unless of course he really has fallen off a cliff and is done.

Schneider has to be the one going down at this point unless Pinango has shown some issues we can't see as fans
100% correct

I think they think they landed a different Sosa.

Sammy?

Seems like a no-brainer to send Schneider down to get regular ABs and find himself at the plate.

Sosa reminds me of Gurriel a bit.
He had 3 decent months last year hitting around .290 with a weekly homerun.

It doesn't make much sense to put Schneider at 2B in these plausible best lineups considering his war650 number was mostly derived from LF; Gimenez belongs in both lineups.

With respect to Sosa, it might be as simple as the dude hit 22 HRs last year and the Jays were looking for some pop while half their lineup was on the IL. Schneider could be best served with everyday ABs in AAA, but the Jays are better off with him in the majors so they can start him vs. LHP. He should stay and Pinango should go down for Barger, unless the Jays actually plan to play Yohendrick over Sanchez.

In unrelated news, TB and NYY both look to be quite good. I didn't believe BOS was as good as forecasted and the Orioles look right about where I expected them to be. Toronto is underperforming and I think the FO is doing a good job with the team with a nice semi-rebound to the farm.

TB I felt would still be strong. NYY...this is what gets me. When exactly did the skip the down point? They are good, look pretty good actually and it just kind of snuck up on me. I felt in the past two years that they would be peeling and anchored with some pretty bad contracts. Instead they are competitive, rebounding and have more than enough young talent and a strong youth pool to offset the bad contracts which also are not albatrosses.

A bit annoyed...though Red Sox sucking helps to offset that. Anyone else feel like the NYY snuck up to the top of the division without the "pain" of resetting/falling back? Anyone feel like that is still to come?

Funny enough Schneider's career so far is about 36% 2B and 63% LF, and he's rated just about dead average defensively in both spots.

But yeah i agree it's unlikely to ever see the manager use him at 2B regularly, just like it's unlikely to see vladdy in the 2 hole, but hey it's for fun and i am trying to maximize the lineup not just predict it.

As for what Gimenez deserves....well, if he can maintain his current 90wrc+ then he's a legit starter but if he again drops well below that (as he's been trending) then it gets harder and harder to make him a shoo in when the team is struggling to produce.



Of course if guys like schneider can't hit at their recent or projected levels then yeah they won't be pushing gimenez out of the lineup either.

Have opposing pitchers adjusted to popkins?

Because this seems bad.


Chris Black
@DownToBlack
Dating back to 2008, only 3 Blue Jays have ever had a chase rate over 40% (min 250 OOZ pitches)

Ernie Clement ('24) 43%
Raimel Tapia ('22) 42%
@KPILLAR4
('18) 42%

2026 Jays currently have 8 guys chasing over 40% (Sanchez, Kirk, Barger, Gimenez, Lukes, Clement, Heineman, Sosa)

I don't think they have. Kirk and Barger sss. Lukes sss w/ Vertigo.

Heineman, Sosa and Sanchez not great.

Clement normal chaser.

Pretty much Gimenez is chasing too much and the rest all adds up. I don't think it a bad overall trend.

Pitchers don't adjust to hitting coaches.
Pitchers are usually ahead of hitters in April.

Sanchez is new. Usually Popkins tell guys to focus on what they are good at but maybe they got Sanchez to add power.
Barger was getting benched early on for swinging at every pitch.
Lukes couldn't track the ball for most of his playing time. Heineman is a backup.
Gimenez is actually doing OK.

Jays hitters were struggling early on last year as well.

Pinango is hot.
So is Straw.
Guerrero is doing fine.
Okamoto has been more power than hit recently, but his line is great.
Varsho is around average.

Barger was hitting .053, so I hope they don't rush him.
Schneider is hitting .132 which is not acceptable. 
Springer is hitting .189 which has to improve.  

This year vRHP

RF Straw 30pa, .360bip, 163wrc+
LF Pinango 21pa, .444bip, 139wrc+
3B Okamoto 116pa, .268bip, 130wrc+
SS Gimenez 93pa, .329bip, 119wrc+
1B Guerrero 118pa, .378bip, 117wrc+
C Alejandro 17pa, .167bip, 110wrc+
2B Clement 110pa, .316bip, 105wrc+
CF Varsho 97pa, .265bip, 93wrc+
DH Sanchez 106pa, .267bip, 84wrc+

C Valenzuela 41pa, .250bip, 77wrc+
OF Lukes 55pa, .289bip, 74wrc+
UT Springer 60pa, .205bip, 72wrc+
IF Sosa 51pa, .279bip, 52wrc+

UT Schneider 32pa, .118bip, 42wrc+
C Heineman 37pa, .190bip, 0wrc+
UT Barger 21pa, .077bip, -29wrc+


vLHP

1B Guerrero 36pa, .292bip, 176wrc+
3B Okamoto 35pa, .333bip, 125wrc+
RF Straw 37pa, .280bip, 116wrc+
CF Varsho 36pa, .280bip, 110wrc+
LF Schneider 35pa, 286bip, 98wrc+
DH Springer 24pa, .235bip, 78wrc+
C Valenzuela 13pa, .167bip, 76wrc+
2B Clement 41pa, .243bip, 60wrc+
SS Gimenez 35pa, .185bip, 17wrc+

OF Pinango 5pa, .500bip, 178wrc+
UT Barger 2pa, .000bip, 123wrc+
IF Sosa 31pa, .316bip, 64wrc+
C Heineman 22pa, .278bip, 23wrc+

OF Sanchez 17pa, .214bip, 36wrc+
C Alejandro 4pa, .000bip, -100wrc+
OF Lukes 1pa, .000bip, -100wrc+





2years vs. RHP

DH Springer 497pa, .343bip, 165wrc+
3B Okamoto 116pa, .268bip, 130wrc+
1B Guerrero 639pa, .317bip, 127wrc+
2B Schneider 131pa, .232bip, 127wrc+
CF Varsho 312pa, .243bip, 118wrc+
C Alejandro 379pa, .287bip, 116wrc+
RF Barger 434pa, .270bip, 108wrc+
LF Straw 183pa, .286bip, 101wrc+
SS Gimenez 376pa, .269bip, 90wrc+

UT Sanchez 528pa, .278bip, 100wrc+
OF Lukes 440pa, .270bip, 100wrc+
IF Sosa 455pa, .303bip, 93wrc+
C Valenzuela 41pa, .250bip, 77wrc+

OF Pinango 21pa, .444bip, 139wrc+
IF Clement 511pa, .286bip, 81wrc+
C Heineman 161pa, .277bip, 73wrc+


2years vs LHP

1B Guerrero 195pa, .338bip, 166wrc+
SS Clement 228pa, .317bip, 131wrc+
3B Okamoto 35pa, .333bip, 125wrc+
DH Springer 173pa, .262bip, 124wrc+
C Alejandro 149pa, .336bip, 106wrc+
LF Schneider 163pa, .288bip, 104wrc+
CF Varsho 92pa, .300bip, 102wrc+
RF Straw 183pa, .326bip, 98wrc+
2B Sosa 171pa, .317bip, 96wrc+

C Heineman 72pa, .382bip, 134wrc+
OF Lukes 54pa, .313bip, 95wrc+
UT Barger 91pa, .304bip, 70wrc+
IF Gimenez 121pa, .205bip, 33wrc+

OF Pinango 5pa, .500bip, 178wrc+
C Valenzuela 13pa, .167bip, 76wrc+
UT Sanchez 92pa, .213bip, 33wrc+



3years vRHP

1B Guerrero 1197pa, .332bip, 144wrc+
DH Springer 966pa, .296bip, 134wrc+
3B Okamoto 116pa, .268bip, 130wrc+
LF Sanchez 950pa, .311bip, 109wrc+
RF Lukes 517pa, .280bip, 107wrc+
C Alejandro 665pa, .283bip, 106wrc+
2B Schneider 447pa, .257bipm, 103wrc+
CF Varsho 721pa, .243bip, 102wrc+
SS Gimenez 837pa, .180bip, 90wrc+

OF Straw 186pa, .297bip, 101wrc+
UT Barger 622pa, .259bip, 100wrc+
IF Clement 818pa, .284bip, 90wrc+
C Valenzuela 41pa, .250bip, 77wrc+

OF Pinango 21pa, .444bip, 139wrc+
IF Sosa 703pa, .296bip, 83wrc+
C Heineman 169pa, .272bip, 70wrc+


3years vs LHP

1B Guerrero 334pa, .328bip, 166wrc+
3B Okamoto 35pa, .333bip, 125wrc+
CF Varsho 196pa, .311bip, 119wrc+
SS Clement 373pa, .285bip, 108wrc+
2B Sosa 292pa, .327bip, 103wrc+
C Alejandro 249pa, .276bip, 102wrc+
DH Springer 318pa, .245bip, 101wrc+
LF Straw 184pa, .323bip, 97wrc+
RF Lukes 68pa, .293bip, 88wrc+

C Heineman 80pa, .373bip, 129wrc+
UT Schneider 301pa, .261bip 79wrc+
UT Barger 128pa, .297bip, 55wrc+
IF Gimenez 293pa, .249bip, 51wrc+

OF Pinango 5pa, .500bip, 178wrc+
C Valenzuela 13pa, .167bip, 76wrc+
UT Sanchez 207pa, .211bip, 35wrc+

That’s fair. However, Gimenez might be a unique example. There’s pretty substantial evidence building that one fluke year (2022) is artificially propping up career numbers and that recent three year trends are a more likely future predictor than career.

Yeah I think the basic reality is that there are no good samples to use for platoon splits. 3yrs or less not big enough, 5+ years probably not recent enough. Kinda have to look at all of them and kind of decide for yourself.