A sweet formula.

Addition by subtraction.

I hope Nakamura is ready to eat up a few innings tomorrow, as it's a very tough assignment for Douglass. Frederick should also get some needed work, saving the rest of the bullpen for Tuesday and Wednesday, when the starters match up better for the Jays and the score might be close.

Not that I'm conceding Monday's game or anything. :)

Funny how Douglass is positioned as the staff ace, but I guess there isnt a better test out there for him.

Wow the Jays are ultra thin in SP's. Douglas's ERA doesn't warrant a call up but I guess it's better than asking Kershner to start.

Can someone tell me what became of Corey Thurman?

Can someone tell me what became of Corey Thurman?

IIRC, he signed with the Reds as a minor league free agent.

Dontrelle Willis was he not called up from AA last year to become the rookie of the year. Instead of Bring Douglass up to start, why not bring one of the AA guys who is having a great year. Would be exciting!

Thurman had his contract voided by the Reds back in the offseason due to a shoulder injury. He signed on with the Potomac Cannons of the Northern League before being signed by the Expos. Right now he's listed as being with Montreal's AA affiliate in Harrisburg. In two starts for Harrisburg he's pitched 10 innings and allowed nine earned runs.

I think Sean Douglass ERA may be a lttle misleading. He got off to a horrible start in Syracuse and was being hit all around the park with a ERA of 7 or 8. Then something happened and he started to pitch much better and has been for the last couple of months. He still a young guy, I believe 24, and he throws pretty hard so he does have some potential, of course what he does with that potential is the big question.

As nutty as it sounds, maybe the Jays should consider stretching out Chulk just to try him as a starter in September. If they're looking for a fourth or fifth starter for next year he could compete with Miller, Bush, and Towers for the spots and would probably do better in the long run than Douglass.

If McGowan had stayed healthy the Jays would have been in very good shape for the 2005 rotation. Maybe Rosario can make a bid in spring training though.

Dontrelle Willis was he not called up from AA last year to become the rookie of the year. Instead of Bring Douglass up to start, why not bring one of the AA guys who is having a great year. Would be exciting!

Willis was flat-out dominating other teams in the minors for most of his minor league career. The Jays pitchers doing well in AA right now are mostly journeymen and none of them are performing as well as Willis did. There's no one in the Toronto minor league system comparable to Willis at the moment.

Well I'm sure there is no Willis in their system..What was Willis doing in AA if he was so dominating? I know your going to say Vermilyea is not ready but pitching a perfect game sounds dominating to me...was that in AA?

Vermilyea needs to finish the season in AA and maybe start in AAA next year, dont think he is close to the majors yet, and they havent figured out if he should be a starter (org) or a reliever (he prefers).

I understand that you cant really groom a closer, and you just find them, but with Rosario's injury problems and frail body, should we try to make him into a closer that can pitch 2 innings if neccessary?

Well I'm sure there is no Willis in their system..What was Willis doing in AA if he was so dominating?

The guy only pitched 6 games at AA before the Marlins called him up. It's not as if they were burying him there.

Did Willis play at all in AAA or completely skip that level?

Skipped it entirely. Here's his minor league stats.

2005 rotation -
Halladay
Batista
Lilly
Miller
Bush
I really don't think there's any room for another young guy (i.e. Rosario) to push his way into the rotation (unless Miller returns and gets, er, tattooed :-) )

It is a tough assignment for Douglass, but as long as he throw strikes, I think he'll be OK. Sometimes that's easier said than done.

There's also the possibility the Jays will sign another starter in the off-season.

Another possibility is to use Miller in the pen where his devastating slider can be used very effectively several times a week instead of every 5 days. It also might lessen the chance of an injury as he has been on the DL for one whole season and for a part of another.

Moffatt,I really don't see the Jays signing a starter in the offseason.
Halladay, Batista and Lilly are sure thing, plus 2 of Bush, Miller, Towers and Douglas. Alot of people are writing off Towers, but he's been performing well lately. I think the Jays will likely use any Free Agent money on some hitters.

Is there a resource out there that's listed which players will be restricted and/or unrestricted FA for this coming offseason?

Alot of people are writing off Towers, but he's been performing well lately

You can throw Towers out there against softer lineups and he'll look great but against the teams with big HR totals he gets exposed.

At this point I'd be content to have Carlos ship off to another club (preferably the NL, just to avoid eating crow later on) and spend his dollars on another number 2/3 starter, a decent bat to replace Delgado, possibly a SS (though after the upper tier of SS, the drop off is huge so it might not be wise to allocate much money there) and some more depth off the bench.

Oh, might want to add in to that wish list a couple of recycled relievers -- but again, it isn't worth it to go out and get a "proven" reliever on the Jays' budget. Ligtenberg is still around next year and can't be any more brutal than he has been at times this year and we have potentially sold 8/9 combo with Frasor and Chulk (though I've still got my fingers crossed given what happened to Aquillino).

http://kmbumb.people.wm.edu/05agency.html
COMN for a list of potential free agents.

Here is a free agent starting point:

C: Quiroz
1B: Pond
2B: O-Dog
3B: Hinske
SS: Adams
LF: Gross
CF: Wells
RF: Rios
DH: Phelps

Bench: Cash, Menechino, Woodward, Reed

SP: Doc, Miggy, Lilly, Bush, Miller

BP: Frasor, Chulk, Frederick, Peterson, Ligtenberg, Nakamura, File

That roster costs about 33 million - So J.P. has about 17 million to improve the above team.

Here are all the first basemen that aren't under contract for next year.

Rafael Palmeiro
David Segui
Jose Offerman
Tony Clark
Travis Lee
Eric Karros
Dave Hansen
John Olerud
Tino Martinez
Brad Fullmer
Carlos Delgado
Greg Colbrunn
Richie Sexson
Julio Franco
Robin Ventura
Mo Vaughn
Todd Zeile
JT Snow

Not a whole lot, really, unless the Jays can ink Sexson.

Phelps is more likely to start at first than Pond (he might get an invite to Camp but I can't believe Pond has much of a shot left with the Big Club). Adams is likely a mid-season call-up (we may try to fill the 6-spot with a FA depending on when Adams is projected to be called-up). We'll have to see how Gross puts up in Spring Training, he may be in a platoon with Johnson (and from what I understand, the Jays want Cat back too). I wouldn't be surprised if Cash isn't with the club on Opening Day 2004 -- especially not if Quiroz comes all the way north (any guesses on if/what Zaun might re-sign for?).

if you play phelps at 1b, then getting a dh is a bit easier and that list can expand

zaun will come cheap, that is almost a guarantee

Considering Phelps didn't play any 1B while Delgado was injured, I can't imagine he's really in the plans for his replacement.

I'm amazed that the Blue Jays of 2004 are at where they are right now. If I am JP i just have faith with what i have on the field right now and give them another year to prove themselves. I think with Bush pitching like he has the rotation is pretty much set. Miller has looked good when healthy. If the jays can just remain healthy and bring delgado back and let him get back to being delgado they are a playoff team in my mind. I would hate to see Catalanotto go.

Johsnon LF
Rios RF
Wells CF
Delgado 1B
Phelps DH
Hinske 3B
Hudson 2B
Adams/Gomez SS
Zaun/Quiroz C

4th OF Gross

If they let delgado go they might as well move Phelps to first and DH Cat. A guy who hits .333 aint a bad DH. Then they can spent the extra money on a starting pitcher. spending it on bullpen help seems silly to me cause unless yoru willing to spend the money for a Foulke or Rivera type you get stuck spending it on Adams/Lightenberg and Spier...might as well go with the veterans they have and the rookies!

A guy who hits .333 aint a bad DH.

Whoah. I'm not saying you're wrong or anything, because I think Catalanatto is a great player, but I think that's the first time I've ever heard someone on this site use batting average by itself to say a player is good.

The option I like best is to sign Troy Glaus, put Glaus at third, Hinske at first or vice versa with hopefully Phelps as part of the DH solution - maybe with Cat if he'll stay. Vernon, Rios, and a lefthanded-hitting OF with Reed Johnson as a potential platoon partner.

Failing that, maybe a cheapish first baseman with upside potential (Travis Lee?) and sign a big-hitting leftfielder.

that's the first time I've ever heard someone on this site use batting average by itself to say a player is good

It's almost impossible to be a bad player hitting .333. The worst .330 hitter since the last war is Dante Bichette in 1998, who was just about an average leftfielder while hitting .331. The only other player to hit .330 and not be above average since 1945 was Don Mueller in 1953 and '54.

I think, with a bit of luck that includes moving Ligtenberg and Hinske, we could add Glaus, Valentin and Williamson while retaining Delgado and still come in close to 50 million

Oh yeah, I know. Still, it's such an oddity.

Correction: I didn't know in that much detail, just sorta knew.
You really want Glaus? I'm not comfortable giving 5+ million to a guy who has been injured so much. I'd rather go for Beltre and hope he keeps doing whatever he's been doing.

Ya I aint much of a Glaus fan myself.
I wouldsn't mind them bringing Tony Clark in for a 1B/DH bat, how expensive is Clark?

As for using batting avg as measure of worth.....im new to the site and thats a pretty global stat used by people. They actually have something called the batting crown bestowed on the highest average for both league's ...can you believe it ...usually they are pretty good players too...remember Olerud ALomar and Molitor

Batting average has its merits, but many balls in play are subject to a great (or poor) defensive play -- how many times have you seen Vernon Wells or Mike Cameron take away a double from someone? Or a ground ball to Luis Rivas that should be a 4-3 putout become a single to right?

I prefer to use AVG/OBP/SLG to evaluate a hitter. It tells me more than just his batting average. For example:

remember Olerud ALomar and Molitor
Olerud: .363/.473/.599
Alomar: .326/.408/.492
Molitor: .332/.402/.509
(From 1993, as you implied)

Yes, I do remember the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th members of WAMCO. These numbers tell me that not only did those three batters hit for high average, they all had OBP's over .400 (very good) and slugged from .492 (good for a 2B) to .599 (great for anyone). Using GPA, a stat which transforms OBP and SLG into a batting average-like number:

Olerud: .363
Alomar: .307
Molitor: .308

All very good. If you're wondering, GPA = ((OBP * 1.8) + SLG) / 4.

Looks like Adams is back to his old ways in Boston. Strikes out Clark, walks Wilson and gives up a double to Lofton before he is relieved for Foulke. Not the best debut for Adams

Glaus is a really interesting idea for 1B, assuming he comes cheap enough. ($20M over 3 years?) Obviously, you'd want to know more about his injury, though.

When healthy, he'd be a damn good Carlos replacement... assuming Vernon, Eric, and Josh are ready to pick up the rest of the slack.

But then there's the risk that Boston could always scoop him up first.

Good Summary Geoff...

They won't keep Cash and Quiroz though, ... both Right handers, unless they are grooming one for a trade...
So they'll need a lefty catcher with experience to teach the youth, Zaun, Myers, etc... But I know what you did that list..

AND, it only proves my point, this is NOT a contending team in 2005, even with $17 Mill in free agents,
and by 2006, Ligtenberg and Lilly are Free Agents too.. .

Grooming for a trade? They dont know which one is the safer bet. Consider them both blue jays, for at least a few seasons. Cash so far hasnt shown he is starter material, maybe he will be the backup/dh in the future.

Grooming for a trade? They dont know which one is the safer bet. Consider them both blue jays, for at least a few seasons.

Maybe... but I don't think so... Unless one is parked at AAA, it doesn't make sense to have two young right handed catchers on the roster.. (imho)

Glaus is a really interesting idea for 1B, assuming he comes cheap enough. ($20M over 3 years?)

To me, Glaus comes with some serious red flags, not the least of which are his health and his recent performance history (ignoring his glorious 100 AB this season).

It would be one thing to sign to him to an incentive-laden one-year contract, another altogether to give him guaranteed money for a long stretch.

It is tempting to believe that the age-27 season Glaus we saw this season was simply continuining where the age 23 and 24 Glaus left off, but I'd not be in a big hurry to make that gamble, or to believe he'll suddenly return to his iron man status of yesteryear. He may, but are the budget-conscious Jays in a position to take that chance?

He may, but are the budget-conscious Jays in a position to take that chance?

The lower your budget, the more risks you have to take. Not less. Big-budget teams can play it safe at every position. Low-budget teams need to take chances with players.

The Jays are in a position where their deep farm system is soon going to be able to fill holes and plug gaps. Taking a chance on a couple of guys who might be superlative is the right way to go.

They won't keep Cash and Quiroz though, ... both Right handers, unless they are grooming one for a trade...

Left-handed hitting catchers aren't a necessity, simply a luxury. If Cash's arm and glove remain his best skills, he's the perfect backup catcher.

AND, it only proves my point, this is NOT a contending team in 2005, even with $17 Mill in free agents

"Proves" your point? It's now proven? That was easy.

It really all depends on what JP can do with that $17MM. That amount of money could be turned into 3 or 4 quality hitters or relievers and some bench strength.

The potential for the 2005 rotation is sick though (sick in a good way) as those are five high ceiling pitchers. If all five reached their potential simultaneously, this team could have a Dodger offense and still do well.

I was looking at Geoff's "as we stand for 2005" summary in more depth.. I like it, thanks again...

I think the Jays are going to need to spend some of that $17 for a decent left handed reliever... the only lefties on the staff are Frederick and Lilly.... I think we miss the Quantrill-Plesac type of Relief combo quite a bit

and I suppose the Jays could carry an offensive and a defensive catcher as a platoon, but it seems a waste to keep a "Cash" on the roster just for his arm... a veteran catcher might help the pitchers more...

and a First Baseman, hey I hear Fullmer is going cheap again...

I noticed "Towers" doesn't show up here or on the Potential Free Agents list, is he locked up for a while yet? Not that I have high hopes for him, just curious...

Frederick is a RHP.

Oh.. Menechino isn't signed thourgh 2005 I don't think... so I put him and Cat in the same situation, potential free agents but with a High "Signability"

Frederick is a RHP.

He may well be.. I got my info from...
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?ID=4242

I thought info on the internet is always right... doesn't someone proof-read it all? LOL

I'm reluctant to have the Jays spend any of that $17M on relievers. Given the bad luck/bad decisions they've made in the past, I'd rather they just take their chances on more minor leaguers.

Like I said, I really like Craig's Glaus idea. (It was your idea, right Craig?) I just worry that teams (like, say, Boston or the Dodgers) will offer him money based on his potential ($12M/yr) rather than his performance ($4-7M/yr).

Once you get close to $7M, however, you start thinking is it worth spending another $3M to just keep Delgado. (I have a hard time believing anyone would pay him more than that.)

Delgado is, in my view, a much better risk than Glaus. There's no way that Glaus gets only $4 million, after his performance in limited action this year. "What have you done lately" drives the free-agent market and voting patterns.