Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Hall Watch 2004-The Outfielders-Manny Ramirez

Hall Watch 2004-The Outfielders-Manny Ramirez

2004 was a year Manny Ramirez will never forget. It started with a blow to the ego, as it was publicly disclosed that the Sox had placed him on waivers, and any team could pick him up. "Manny for nothing" was the headline in da Box. When it was all over, Manny was still in Boston and had posted his 10th straight Hall of Fame quality season (.308/.397/.613), made his 7th post-season appearance (at the age of 32), and been fitted for his first World Series ring. Zero to hero in nine months.

Manny was Cleveland's 1st round pick (13th overall) in the 1991 draft, and it was clear from the beginning that he could hit. He went .326/.426/.679 in rookie ball the remainder of that year, and slipped to .278/.379/.502 in A ball the following year. In 1993, he was Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year, as he started at double A Canton-Akron and hit .340/.414/.581, went totally ballistic at triple A Charlotte (.317 with 14 homers in 142 ABs), and then had a cup of coffee in the majors. After a fine rookie year in 1994 (.269/.357/.521) at age 22, he emerged as a great player in 1995. He has been a consistent .300 hitter with tremendous power and very fine plate discipline since. It's a simple combination, but it adds up to offensive excellence.

Ramirez is a poor baserunner and defensive outfielder, albeit with an average arm. He now has 297 post-season at-bats, and has posted a respectable .256/.351/.478 line.

For Ramirez' chart, we have an interesting age 32 comparison. Barry Bonds age 32 season was in 1997.

Player    G      AB     H     HR    W     BA     OBP    SLUG    OPS+     
Ramirez   1535   5572   1760  390   874   .316   .411   .599    156      
Robinson  1916   7033   2117  418   929   .302   .392   .556    156
Bonds     1742   6069   1750  374   1227  .288   .408   .551    162
Simmons   1524   5243   1783  240   431   .354   .398   .574    145
Williams  1633   6331   1861  291   629   .294   .358   .502    137

As a hitter, Ramirez is a lot closer to Robinson and Bonds than to Al Simmons and Billy Williams. Bonds of course had tremendous speed when he was young, and was an excellent fielder. Robby was an average defensive outfielder, but a fine baserunner in the fullback mode.

Ramirez is quite clearly on a Hall of Fame track- .310 hitters with 550 career homers don't grow on trees. Three to four more seasons will do it.

Next up: Sammy Sosa.

Posted by Mike Green on Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 08:00 AM EST.

Hall Watch 2004-The Outfielders-Manny Ramirez | 28 comments | Create New Account

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Jim - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 10:34 AM EST (#103807) #

Throw in the fact he's never been part of the steroid controversy and he's an even better bet.

Mike Green - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 10:41 AM EST (#103809) #

Next up is Sosa, and while his name has never come up (that I am aware of) in the steroid context, the corked bat will be remembered when he becomes eligible for the Hall of Fame.

We'll spend some time with corked bats, andro, the clear and the cream when talking about Sammy's Hall of Fame prospects.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 10:52 AM EST (#103811) #

When I think of Manny, the guy I think of as a comp -- great hitter, feared around baseball, perennial MVP candidate, mdeiocre defender, surly attitutude, media doesn't like him much, one of the top power guys in the game but his name isn't there in the pantheon for whatever reason ... is another Boston Red Sox star, the immortal Jim Rice.

Ramirez's counting stats won't measure up, but aren't they pretty much the same guy? Maybe the World Series ring will be magic pixie dust for voters when they consider future Hall of Fame candidacies of 2004 Sox players (it may HURT Nomar that he was traded in the deal that many credit witg outting them over the top).

But we see how Rice's entry into the Hall has worked out, and you couldn't have paid me to beleive he wouldn't make it in about 1983.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 10:53 AM EST (#103812) #

'scuse me. "Ramirez's counting stats won't measure u[" should of course read "Rice's ..." And I credit a chunk of that to era.

Magpie - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 01:06 PM EST (#103817) #

Ramirez has some other advantages on Rice - he walks a little bit more so his OnBase is quite a bit better. Manny's worst since he became a regular is .377. He's been as high as .459, and for his career he's at .411. Rice's best was .384, and his career mark was .352.

And Jim of course was a GIDP machine; Manny hits into a few as well, but Rice hit into more than anyone.

That's really the difference; Rice made a whole lot more outs.

Manny Ramirez always reminded me of Pedro Guerrero - they're just about as good a right handed hitter as you're ever gonna see. Alas, Pedro played his best years in pitcher's parks, and they screwed around with him defensively, and he hurt himself a few too many times.

I always had the impression that Ramirez was not so much surly as just a little... I dunno, out to lunch? I remember one of the Boston writers saying "he's out there playing the game, but he may not even know that they keep score."

Jacko - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 01:07 PM EST (#103818) #

I think that's a bit of a reach Mick.

Rice is basically Manny without the walks. Which is a pretty big difference. He's a poor man's Ramirez, or if you prefer, a souped up Joe Carter.

I'm not denying Rice was an intimidating presence, and that many pitchers feared him. But Manny is just as intimidating, and because of his patience, a much tougher out.

There's also the question of longevity. Manny has 5 years and 100MM left on his contract. Barring injury, at the end of that contract he'll have at least be 550 HR and 2500 hits. If he hangs around a few more years, he'll gain entrance into the very special 600/3000 club.

Magpie - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 01:11 PM EST (#103819) #

Jim Rice and Dale Murphy. They both did what Hall of Fame players normally do in their 20s. They had many great, MVP type seasons.<p>

Normally, that's a big chunk of the Hall of Fame resume. What guys do after that, in their 30s, pad their counting stats.<p>

But Rice and Murphy both just stopped hitting, right out of the blue. They both looked they had a chance to approach 500 HRs; neither could even make it to 400.

King Ryan - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 03:18 PM EST (#103825) #

This is what I don't get.

The common perception around Edgar Martinez is that because he has no defensive value, he shouldn't get into the hall. However, people seem to have no problem admitting a guy like Manny Ramirez, even though he plays the field very poorly.

Now, granted, Manny is a much better hitter than Gar, but it's the principle of the matter. Why is poor defense favorable to no defence?

Tyler - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 03:49 PM EST (#103826) #

My understanding is that it reduces the value of Edgar's offence. Manny's ability to go out and play LF without killing himself, or the Red Sox, lets the Sox slide an even more one dimensional player into the DH role-for the past two years, Ortiz. With Edgar limited to DHing only, the M's have to try and find someone else to play third. It's easier to find a slugger to play DH then it is to find one to play third, I'd imagine.

Magpie - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 05:20 PM EST (#103837) #

Tyler basically has it right. The fact that Ramirez can actually play the position is itself a positive, and itself has value. He doesn't have as much defensive value at that position as, say, Reed Johnson, but he makes up for that with his bat.

Another way to look at it. You need to fill DH and LF, and the three players available are Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Reed Johnson. Its an easy decision.

But if the three players were Edgar Martinez, David Ortiz, and Reed Johnson... you'd have a hell of a pinch hitter on your bench.

Did you know Manny Ramirez once threw out 19 baserunners? In his rookie year with Cleveland.

Pistol - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 05:24 PM EST (#103839) #

However, people seem to have no problem admitting a guy like Manny Ramirez, even though he plays the field very poorly.

I just got this year's copy of Prospectus and looked up Manny's defense. Over the last 3 years on average he's been 6 runs below average, which while below average certainly isn't awful. FWIW, he rated better than Hideki Matsui (-8) who generally has a better reputation.

Mike Green - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 05:26 PM EST (#103841) #

Edgar Martinez is an interesting case. He was a great, great hitter (career OPS+ of 147). Manny will end up with a fairly similar number, when he's done. Edgar played third base, about as well as Manny plays the outfield, until he was 31. In my view, he would be a clear Hall of Famer had the Mariners given him a shot 2 years earlier instead of continuing to send Jim Presley out there.

Magpie - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 05:30 PM EST (#103842) #

Over the last 3 years on average he's been 6 runs below average, which while below average certainly isn't awful. There! He's not awful out there. He's just kind of funny.

I also wonder - I don't know what methods Prospectus is using - but Manny actually plays a defensive position that has a Park Effect. Fenway is a strangely shaped park, and the LF territory is rather small. Flyballs that a LF catches (even Manny!) in other parks go ricocheting off or over the wall. I wonder how or if you can account for that.

Mike Green - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 05:46 PM EST (#103844) #

You can and should account for park factors when evaluating defence, and some methods do. Michael Humphreys' Defensive Regression Analysis, for instance, does not fully account for park accounts, but does address the extreme Boston LF situation. More on this in a forthcoming article.

Jacko - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 06:30 PM EST (#103849) #

Pistol, who did you order BP 2005 from?

Speaking of baseball annuals, the John Sickels prospect book is excellent this year, as usual. He's got a distribution partner in Canada now, and they were able to get it into my hands in less than a week. His book was available well before the BP and BA books.

Also, if you're trying to choose between the BA Minor League book and the Sickels book, keep in mind that John is an independent now after ESPN did not renew his contract.

Get it at:

http://www.johnsickels.com

King Ryan - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 07:59 PM EST (#103855) #

Pistol - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 08:10 PM EST (#103856) #

"Pistol, who did you order BP 2005 from?"

Amazon.com. It was real cheap there, although I don't know if the price is as good on Canadian sales.

Tyler - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 08:47 PM EST (#103860) #

This isn't about Edgar Martinez and Manny Ramirez. They were examples. It's just about DHs and poor position players in general. A player that generates 40 runs on offense and 0 runs in the field is worse than a player that generates 40 runs on offense and -10 runs in the field? Lets assume that those numbers are for Manny and Edgar. The thing is, Manny could go DH, and produce 40 and 0, just like Edgar. Were Edgar to move into LF, his numbers were no doubt be worse than those of Manny. Ergo, Manny is a better player.

King Ryan - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 08:51 PM EST (#103861) #

And if Manny were to move to Shortstop, his numbers would be even worse too. So what? I'm sorry, I just don't get the relvance of Edgar's ability to play Left Field. The man that plays left field at -10 runs is hurting his team. That's bad.

Tyler - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 09:07 PM EST (#103863) #

And if Edgar were to play shortstop, his defensive numbers would be worse than Manny's shortstop numbers. The point is, Edgar is so bad defensively that he can't play anywhere in the field. That's what makes him worse than Manny, hitting numbers aside.

You might argue that Edgar had more of a positive impact on his team than Manny did. In order to make that assessment, you'd need to factor in the player who filled the position that the player didn't. It's easier to find a DH who hits than it is to find a LF who hits. That's where the value of Manny playing LF comes in.

JackFoley - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 09:14 PM EST (#103864) #

I too have yet to clearly understand why a player in the American League with no defensive value is automatically less valuable than a player with defensive value. I could see how this would obviously be the case in the National League, but considering the designated hitter slot in the AL I don't yet understand the logic.

CaramonLS - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 09:15 PM EST (#103865) #

If Manny plays DH, Ortiz goes...? It might be fun watching him play first for an entire season.

Thats why Manny is more valuable.

best400 - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 09:36 PM EST (#103868) #

The fact of the matter is that, Ramirez playing LF allows for another player(in this case Ortiz) to play DH. If the Red Sox had a better CF(Damon will catch what he gets to but doesnt have great range) Ramirez defensive stats would also improve drastically.

Craig B - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 10:12 PM EST (#103873) #

Well, sure, you can and should account for it, but you're never going to account for it satisfactorily. The fact of the matter is that anybody, bar an Edgar Martinez type with no knees, can defend adequately in left field in Fenway. That means that Manny comes out at nearly an average fielder when in left in Fenway, because even the best LF isn't able to do much more than he can. Manny's not that terrible - he runs OK for a left fielder, so he makes some plays on the road too - but he's helped enormously by his park when he's at home.

That doesn't mean that Manny is any good defensively, or even that he has any value, since I could do just as well. So no matter what you do with park factors, sometimes you just have hard cases that make it difficult to gauge "defensive value". Anybody can battle left field in Fenway to a draw, and some terrible (or at least terrible-looking) defenders have done just that over the years. Jim Rice, Ted Williams, Smead Jolley...

So does Manny get credit for being not too far from average? Or do we "read him down" due to the park? And more to the point, does any of this matter, given his bat? Even if Manny were a DH pure and simple, I'd still be stamping his ticket to Cooperstown right now. The man's done enough.

Craig B - Sunday, February 27 2005 @ 10:56 PM EST (#103874) #

I forgot to mention that Manny is likely to end his career with more games played in RF than LF, so he'll probably be considered a RF down the road.

Also, Mike said

Three to four more seasons will do it.

I'll take issue with this too. What more does a player have to do? He's met the Hall of Fame standards in everything - I realize that a few wouldn't vote for him if his career ended today, because his counting stats are lower than some other candidates. But clearly his body of work is impressive enough that he will eventually be admitted - unless he plays poorly enough for a few seasons that his rate stats are dragged down.

Manny's career to date is essentially as impressive as that of Hank Greenberg or Dick Allen, one of whom is viewed as an upper-echelon Hall of Famer, and the second of whom nearly everyone except the voters agrees should probably be in. He's well ahead of Ralph Kiner, who it is generally conceded is well worth his spot in the Hall, and of Chuck Klein, who is also in the Hall. I say he goes in.

Win Shares analysis (I'll consider Manny as a right fielder) - Manny has 276 career Win Shares, not in and of itself a HoF total but not far off. Other players with 273-279 career Win Shares are Ken Boyer, Steve Garvey, Lave Cross, King Kelly, Bill Terry, Dixie Walker, Lou Boudreau, Bobby Murcer, Joe Sewell, Mickey Cochrane, Grasshopper Jim Whitney, Jimmy Collins, Pie Traynor, Rocky Colavito, Clark Griffith, and Adonis Terry. Some of those guys are in.

Other RFs with similar WS totals are Murcer, Colavito, Walker, Kelly, Elmer Flick (291), Jose Canseco (263), Fielder Jones (290), Chili Davis (285), and believe it or not Tony Phillips (268).

Manny does much better on the other categories. His Top 3 seasons are 35, 29, and 28 - comparable to Country Slaughter, Tony Oliva, Gavvy Cravath, Roberto Clemente, or Dave Winfield. Manny is hurt slightly here by having only one MVP-type season.

His Top 5 consecutive seasons are 1999-2003, netting him 144 Win Shares. This is a very good total, though a touch below an elite number. Better than Winfield, Kaline or Gwynn; not as good as Ken Singleton, Dave Parker, or Elmer Flick.

Per 162 games, he has 29.13 Win Shares, 7th best all-time among RFs, a superb number. He ends up in between Frank Robinson and Sam Crawford on that scale. Overall, I think if James were rating players now Manny would rank about 18th among right fielders. Ahead of Singleton, Dawson, Oliva and Evans, but behind Murcer (just), Heilmann, Parker and Bobby Bonds.

I think that's good enough - just - to merit a place in the Hall.

Mick Doherty - Monday, February 28 2005 @ 12:18 AM EST (#103880) #

I'm as big of a Yankee fan as there is, I think -- at least on this site -- so I have to ask, Craig, this question which is meant as unrelated to the Ramirez analysis.

Are you suggesting Bobby Murcer is a Hall of Famer? I admit, I never thought of him along those lines, at least after I was about eight years old and still believed that every Yankee CF belonged in the Hall.

And did he really play more in RF than CF?

If Murcer is worthy of Hall consideration, then Bernie Williams is more qualified than I've thought.

Mike Green - Monday, February 28 2005 @ 09:52 AM EST (#103896) #

Don't worry Mick, Bernie Williams is on my list.

As for Manny Ramirez being a qualified Hall of Famer now, it would be a close call as Craig suggests. I didn't really get into this because Manny is young enough that it is unlikely that it will be a close call when his name comes up.

Craig B - Monday, February 28 2005 @ 01:36 PM EST (#103955) #

Murcer... yes, obviously Murcer is not generally seen as a HoF type.

But he mixed an excellent, but very short, prime with a moderately long and successful career.

I don't think of Murcer as being in Manny's class (and yes, he did play more in RF than in CF for his career though his peak was as a CF) but he was a great player for three years and a good player for ten. If you put him in the Hall, he wouldn't be the worst player there, not by a long shot.

I don't advocate him for the Hall because his prime was great, but a little too short, and his career was good, but again a little too short. Ramirez has a long, high-quality prime.

Hall Watch 2004-The Outfielders-Manny Ramirez | 28 comments | Create New Account

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