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Easily the best thing about February.

Atlantis Casino of Reno was first to post win totals. It did so thusly:

New York     86.5      Detroit     90.0     Anaheim       89.5 
Toronto      86.5      Chicago     80.5     Texas         87.0 
Tampa Bay    86.0      Kansas City 79.0     Oakland       83.0 
Boston       79.5      Cleveland   77.5     Seattle       76.5 
Baltimore    76.5      Minnesota   64.5     Houston       59.5

Washington   90.0      Cincinnati  88.5     Los Angeles   90.0 
Atlanta      86.0      St. Louis   85.5     San Francisco 86.0

Philadelphia 81.5      Milwaukee   79.5     Arizona       81.5 
New York     74.0      Pittsburgh  79.0     San Diego     74.5

Miami        64.5      Chicago     72.0     Colorado      71.5

I'm sure the lines will start moving soon, but this should at least get the conversation going. There are no 95s on the board, so the normally bulletproof strategy of "bet against the highest win totals" might not be quite so reliable this year. I'll take Philly and San Diego over, Seattle and Milwaukee under.

(Thanks to Jonny German for the heads-up in the other thread.)
Over/Under 2013 | 18 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, February 15 2013 @ 02:45 PM EST (#268762) #
The lines have the AL divisions at +11, -13 and -10.  I'll take the over on those and the under on the NL divisions.

So, my overs are Toronto, Tampa,  and Anaheim, and my unders are LAD, Cincinnati and Milwaukee.  If I had a gazillion dollars, I'd actually take the over on all the AL clubs and the under on all the NL clubs and take my chances with interleague. 

Alex Obal - Friday, February 15 2013 @ 02:53 PM EST (#268764) #
It'll be fascinating to see whether the Astros can make up the difference all by themselves. If they really project to be that bad, then Anaheim and Texas look like easy overs.
Mike Green - Friday, February 15 2013 @ 03:02 PM EST (#268765) #
Texas would be my 4th over choice.  The AL would have to go from 142 wins to 120 in interleague play for the projections to make sense.  I see that as extremely unlikely to occur.  Maybe Bryce Harper becomes Mickey Mantle...
Thomas - Friday, February 15 2013 @ 03:03 PM EST (#268766) #

Overs: Washington, Toronto, Cubs

Unders: Milwaukee, Seattle, Arizona

Jonny German - Friday, February 15 2013 @ 04:48 PM EST (#268772) #
These lines look really reasonable to me, hard to pick unders and overs. Particularly since I'm so out of touch with the NL. But I'll take


electric carrot - Friday, February 15 2013 @ 05:28 PM EST (#268773) #
I haven't looked at anything carefully yet but on gut alone I would bet:

Over: Boston, Toronto, Baltimore, Cleveland, Houston, Phillies, Pittsburgh

Under:  Yanks, Texas

dan gordon - Saturday, February 16 2013 @ 02:01 AM EST (#268775) #
Actually, these numbers don't make a lot of sense.  The total for the AL clubs is 13 games under .500 and the total for the NL teams is 11 games under .500.  Total for all teams is 24 games under .500.  This is, of course, not even close to being physically possible.  You'd have a decent chance of winning if you took the over on every team.
John Northey - Saturday, February 16 2013 @ 11:28 AM EST (#268778) #
Interesting dan gordon - I didn't check that yet.  That suggests that Atlantis Casino sees a lot of pessimism in baseball fans this year.  Fans who feel their teams are more likely to collapse than succeed.  Wonder if that is a statement on US society right now?  It'd be interesting to see the games over/under overall projections at this time of year for them over the years.  Were teams projected to be over 500 overall in years where optimism was high (such as at the end of the Regan years, late in the Clinton years, early in the Obama years) or well under 500 when it was poor (either of the Bushes terms, Obama outside of his first year or two). 

bpoz - Saturday, February 16 2013 @ 12:07 PM EST (#268780) #
Lets assume the obvious, to me anyhow. The Atlantis Casino wants as much business as it can get.

I do not know what other assumptions to make, with confidence. I do not understand it enough.

NYY & LAD fans may be a huge number and they may bet a lot of money on their teams to win the WS. Both teams cannot win the WS, so the loser is insurance.Their best hope is for TB or Toronto to win because the volume should be less than NYY & LAD. I suppose it gets more profitable if NYY/LAD do not even make the playoffs. But then nobody can bet on them to win any series as they are not in the playoffs. Somehow the odds must to encourage some goal or strategy. That is a big guess by me.

robertdudek - Monday, February 18 2013 @ 10:38 PM EST (#268807) #
Gotta think the over on Minnesota looks pretty solid.
greenfrog - Tuesday, February 19 2013 @ 11:54 AM EST (#268811) #
For those interested, Keith Law has written a piece on ESPN (Insider),"The stats I can't live without." Recommended, especially for those curious about BABIP, the relative value of OBP and slugging percentage as measures of offensive value, and other issues.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, February 19 2013 @ 03:16 PM EST (#268813) #
I'm not sure about the Twins. Losing Revere and Span is going to hit their pitchers pretty hard. Then again 64 wins in that division isn't a particularly lofty standard.
Parker - Thursday, February 21 2013 @ 11:34 AM EST (#268837) #
I'm gonna go ahead and take the under on Washington.
greenfrog - Friday, February 22 2013 @ 06:10 PM EST (#268864) #
Suggested poll question: will the Blue Jays make the playoffs in 2013?

A chance to go on the record before the season gets underway...

Personally, I would prefer an up-and-down vote, as I never seem to get around to making predictions for all teams in the general predictions thread.
Alex Obal - Friday, February 22 2013 @ 06:23 PM EST (#268866) #
If they make the wild card game but get bounced there, does that count?
greenfrog - Friday, February 22 2013 @ 06:47 PM EST (#268867) #
Good me, getting bounced after a wild card game doesn't count as playing in the playoffs. It is better than finishing out of the race altogether, though.

I guess one question could be: will the Jays garner a wild card spot (if not the AL East title) in 2013?

Alternatively: will the Jays be one of the four teams in the 2013 ALDS?
John Northey - Saturday, February 23 2013 @ 11:33 AM EST (#268874) #
Just for fun, last years Vegas numbers and our reaction to them.  All but one who called Boston said 'over' - congrats Mick for getting that one right.
robertdudek - Saturday, February 23 2013 @ 08:29 PM EST (#268880) #
Looking at last years number, of the 5 highest win lines, four of them ended up under (NYY the exception); of the bottom 6 in projected wins, 5 were up (HOU the exception). So that makes a record of nine and two if you pick in concert with  the Law of Competitive Balance.

So I am going to make the following picks, based on LoCB:

Under; LAD, Was, DET, LAA, CIN


With the caveat that I personally think WAS and CHC will be exceptions.
Over/Under 2013 | 18 comments | Create New Account
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