Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
In the "Who-Saw-This-Coming" Department, Cliff Lee has signed with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies rotation now features Roy Halladay, Lee, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels... and some fifth guy yet to be determined. As soon as they trade Joe Blanton.

At first glance, this looks like Ruben Amaro's attempt to recreate the magic of those Atlanta teams of the 1990s, that used to finish ahead of the Phillies every year. It is, to say the least, an impressive starting rotation.

It may need to be. The rest of the club has some issues. Everyone in the lineup is on the wrong side of 30 (until D. Brown steps in for the departed Jayson Werth.) Some of them are clearly declining (Jimmy Rolins); others are coming off injuries (Chase Utley). The carnival ride also known as Brad Lidge is still their closer...

But still.... WHOAH.

I guarantee one thing and one thing only. Scott Boras is furious. Furious - I tell you, smoke is escaping from his ears at this very moment. Boras and the folks the MLB Players' Association probably feel the same way . Cliff Lee left at least $30 million dollars on the table to sign with the Phillies.

Thirty million dollars.

Holy crap.

So.. what else is new?
Cliff and Doc... Together at Last | 155 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Shrike - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:04 AM EST (#227514) #
Last I checked, Scott Boras is not Cliff Lee's agent.
Magpie - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:16 AM EST (#227515) #
Scott Boras is not Cliff Lee's agent.

Obviously.
85bluejay - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 04:09 AM EST (#227516) #

The guy who really got screwed is Roy Halladay - if I remember he got 4 yr. 80 mil : Lee gets 5yr 120m and an

easily attained 6th yr.

92-93 - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 05:25 AM EST (#227518) #
Halladay's 4th year wasn't even guaranteed - it's 3/60 with a vesting option for 2014. It sounded like Gillick's old rule of not giving more than 3 years to a pitcher was being invoked.

If your Sabathia, how do you not opt out after 2011? He'd be opting out of 4/92 but he'd be the best FA SP on the market and a year younger than Lee is now. Maybe he'll go to the Phillies and become their 5th starter.
Magpie - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 05:47 AM EST (#227519) #
The guy who really got screwed is Roy Halladay

"screwed" might be a wee bit strong - after all, sixty million dollars is still a fair bit of coin.
Magpie - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 05:49 AM EST (#227520) #
If you're Sabathia, how do you not opt out after 2011?

That's a fascinating prospect. Suppose Andy finally retires, and the Bombers stumble through an 83-79 season featuring lots of Sergio Mitre....
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 06:54 AM EST (#227521) #
The ability to throw unlimited money at anyone they want, plus the benign neglect of their minor system is finally going to bite the Yankees in the butt.   All that`s left to make a splash are Adrian Beltre (3B), Rafael Soriano (RHP-RP), Carl Pavano (RHP-SP) and people who were splash-making, but are now too old.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 07:56 AM EST (#227522) #

Wow... I can't even recreate that rotation in fantasy leagues. That is an unbelievable starting 4! I can't help thinking they could have extended him for less money last season (while still dealing for Halladay), but next season they could have 4 sub 1.2 WHIP pitchers.

I gotta say that it feels nice to know that the Yanks won`t be lining up Lee and Sabathia next season. 

Incidentally, is Montero a better prospect than Lawrie?  Because I gotta imagine that we could have moved Marcum for Montero today.

Chuck - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 08:21 AM EST (#227524) #

The guy who really got screwed is Roy Halladay

If Halladay had wanted to maximize his income, he would have gone the free agent route rather than signing a below-market extension (which I believe he has done twice now). He appears to want to be well compensated -- don't we all? --  but without participating in a free market bidding contest.

So I'd be really surprised if he feels screwed today.

Thomas - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 08:27 AM EST (#227525) #
So I'd be really surprised if he feels screwed today.

Agreed. Halladay and his agent knew they were leaving $80 million or so on the table. Doc always said he wanted to play somewhere where he was happy and had a chance to win. He's found the latter and I hope he's found the former, too.

I suspect he's quite pleased to be part of what might be part of one of the best pitching rotations in the past fifty years.

Paul D - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 08:35 AM EST (#227527) #
Looks like the deal is 5 years at $115 million, with a vesting option for a 6th year which is somewhere between 20 and 25 million.   The Yankees appear to have offered 7/138.  So by average annual value, the Philly contract could end up paying him more.
Chuck - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 08:50 AM EST (#227528) #

The Yankees appear to have offered 7/138

I believe it was 6/138 (for a 23 average) and quite possibly 7/161, if the rumours are true that there was a 7th year.

rpriske - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 08:58 AM EST (#227529) #
The idea that someone could feel 'screwed' while making tens of millions of dollars shows how messed up financials have gotten in MLB.
Forkball - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:54 AM EST (#227531) #
Keith Law brought this up in the Lee signing article.... would the Jays have been better off waiting to trade Marcum until now with two teams that really need a starter now out of luck with Lee?

Perhaps, but I think they really had Lawrie targeted.  Not sure what NY or Tex would be willing to put together to beat that, but maybe it makes Milwaukee kick in more.

It'll be interesting to see how the Yankees react.  There's not really a whole lot that they can do at this point.

Forkball - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:56 AM EST (#227532) #
The Yankees appear to have offered 7/138

Olney wrote that it was 6 years for $138M, plus a player option for $16 million.  So 7 for $154M.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 10:25 AM EST (#227533) #
Which brings up the question of, would you (and the Yankees and Jays) do a Montero for Romero or Cecil or Morrow deal?

AA has shown he isn't attached for life to anyone, but that if he targets someone he will do anything to get that someone (See Gose for a big example). The Yankees need pitching, would the Jays trade a couple to get a high end hitting prospect? Would they work on a 3 way so the Yanks could get a vet, someone else some young pitching, and the Jays Montero?

Could be an interesting winter.
Matthew E - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 10:33 AM EST (#227535) #
I was thinking of something like that. The thing to remember, though, is that the Jays are in the driver's seat for any such trade. Who else has so much young pitching available? If anybody wants one of Toronto's arms, I say the Jays soak them for all they're worth. Especially the Yankees or Red Sox or Rays. What's the worst thing that can happen--the Jays hang onto their young pitchers? Anthopoulos is in a position where he doesn't have to do anything he doesn't want to do.

And of course I wouldn't want him to trade away too many arms. Maybe only one. You don't want to leave yourself short.

seeyou - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 10:37 AM EST (#227536) #
The guy who really got screwed is Roy Halladay.


Hmmm.  I do kind of wonder what he thinks of this.  I remember back when we signed A.J. Burnett, we had to go out of our way to make sure that Roy still had the larger salary, but that could have just been a gesture by management.  I'd think that Roy's actions up to now show that he'd care more about winning than money, and this move definitely improves Philly's chances next year.  At the same time, I'd think it bother me a bit to sign a contract, win a Cy Young, and then have my team pay another pitcher more money and guarantee more years than I got the very next season.
Maldoff - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 10:54 AM EST (#227539) #
I was also thinking that the Phillies seem to be going for broke, and definitely need a right-handed bat in their lineup to replace Werth. Jose Bautista anyone? Not sure what Philly can offer, but with their need to send Blanton away, another team looking for a veteran innings eater may have something to offer us in a 3-way deal.
CSHunt68 - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 11:05 AM EST (#227540) #
Yanks just signed Russ Martin. Maybe that opens the door for them to trade Montero - targeting Greinke?
Anyway, one more off the Jays' radar. (Maybe two, if you count Greinke.)

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 11:27 AM EST (#227543) #

For the record, the very consistent and seemingly unanimous reaction here in North Texas seems to be, in order:

  • Aww. Too bad, but maybe that was too expensive anyway.
  • He's not going to New York. Too bad he's not staying, but at least it's not New York.
  • Now, don't go overpay for social-anxiety-boy in KC!
  • Nefty can start. Go sign a closer.
  • P.S. Thank you, Cliff. We'll miss you, but we'll be fine ...

Seriously., it's like every media outlet got a  formatted set of talking points on those items ...

Spicol - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 11:44 AM EST (#227544) #

With this development, the AL is really wide open next year, isn't it? The impact FAs are gone and I don't see any team such head and shoulders above the rest that they are a lock for 95+ wins.

Wheeee.

bpoz - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 11:50 AM EST (#227545) #
Spicol... I completely agree with you. The wild card can be won with a low 90s win total.
85bluejay - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 11:59 AM EST (#227546) #

With Russ Martin, if the yankees go after Greinke, Montero is likely to be part of the deal but KC has butler & homser

on his way (Montero unlikely to stay at catcher) - I wonder if  as in the Gose acquisition, AA could let Dayton Moore

that he's interested in flipping for Montero

Ishai - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 12:03 PM EST (#227548) #
If the Blue Jays had waited to trade Marcum for Lawrie, the Brewers might have found a different starter they like. Zach Greinke, Matt Garza, Joe Blanton, and who knows which others are all legitimate starters on the trade market. It would have been a shame to miss out on a deal that AA thought was in the team's best interests by trying to milk a C+ prospect or some such out of the Brewers.
Hodgie - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 12:10 PM EST (#227550) #
In the short term this is not great for Texas but in the long term it may have been best. Nolan Ryan hardly seemed comfortable with the thought of having to go 7 years for Lee (who did?) but if they had not made the attempt the franchise likely would have been pilloried by the local fan base. Now they are able to say that Lee's heart was obviously in Philadelphia all along and they can move on albeit with a gaping hole in the rotation. Of course, like New York they too were doing quite well without Lee so all is not exactly lost in Texas either.
Dave Rutt - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 01:04 PM EST (#227551) #
With this development, the AL is really wide open next year, isn't it? The impact FAs are gone and I don't see any team such head and shoulders above the rest that they are a lock for 95+ wins.

I think the Red Sox are looking excellent. Remember they had a ton of injuries last year, and while adding Gonzalez isn't that much of an upgrade considering Beltre's 2010, adding Crawford is. Lackey and Beckett are 31 and 30, and could easily bounce back to form a pretty damn good top four.

I agree, though, that the wild card looks more open.
92-93 - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 01:10 PM EST (#227552) #

Keith Law brought this up in the Lee signing article.... would the Jays have been better off waiting to trade Marcum until now with two teams that really need a starter now out of luck with Lee?

No. Lawrie will be higher in Law's Top 100 than any of Drabek, Wallace, and D'Arnaud. If that was an ample return for Halladay & 6m, and the market consensus was that it was, then Lawrie for Marcum is fair value. AA didn't need MIL to add Villanueva or their version of a Danny Farquhar or a Gustavo Pierre to make this deal worthwhile. AA has shown through Emaus the value he places on players that don't have stud ceilings, and it's not much.

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 01:19 PM EST (#227553) #
With this development, the AL is really wide open next year, isn't it? The impact FAs are gone and I don't see any team such head and shoulders above the rest that they are a lock for 95+ wins.

This isn't just specifically to you Spicol but to everyone who says that's it, the Yankees aren't a good team anymore.

Let's say the Yankees are pissed and want to throw money around like they're Congress or something.. Here's what they do:
-convince Pettite to come back for one more year
-sign Beltre, move Arod to short, Jeter/Posada platoon at DH and maybe Jeter gets some OF time.. (IF he can still hit - otherwise, he sits on the bench)
-sign Joakim Soria
-sign another decent closer (Kerry Wood? Kevin Gregg?)
-trade for Greinke
-maybe sign Vlad or Manny or Magglio? Can you IMAGINE Manny in pinstripes back in Fenway????

All of a sudden the Yankees have an ok starting rotation, once again a silly offense, and a crazy bullpen. After the 5th, if you're behind, you face Joba (maybe), Wood/Gregg, Soria and Rivera... That could potentially make Eichhorn/Ward/Henke look like Carlson/Frasor/Accardo.

Or, they try tandem pitching (and Mike Green defects to being a Yankees fan :-)

There's more than one way to skin a cat (in order to remain an evil empire..)

And I realize this is highly, highly unlikely. But so is the Yankees just rolling over and giving up and not making another move until after the 2011 season.. Even if they overpay for everyone of those moves, they CAN still improve the quality of their team by increments..
Wildrose - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 01:27 PM EST (#227554) #
MLB trade rumors is reporting Overbay signing with the the Pirates.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 02:02 PM EST (#227555) #
Yeah, big mistake to see the Yanks lose out on a free agent then assume they will collapse. More likely is they will do whatever they have to in order to improve for 2011.

A 3 way with KC makes a lot of sense though. I'm sure KC loves the Jays young pitchers, NY loves KC's stud starter, and the Jays love high potential. So a mix and match could occur with the Jays ending up with Montero. It wouldn't be easy, but I could see it happening.
Shrike - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 02:12 PM EST (#227557) #
That NY-TOR-KC trade scenario seems far-fetched to me. Montero is a genuinely good prospect but there are significant doubts he can stick at catcher - where the Jays already have several good prospects - so why would the Jays want to trade a lot of pitching for a 1B/DH prospect? They'd be better off using their assets to get a player at a position that's harder to fill.
lexomatic - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 02:12 PM EST (#227558) #
KC has no need of pitchers. they are overflowing with pitchers and  corner hitters.
dan gordon - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 02:22 PM EST (#227559) #

That's great that the Yankees didn't get Lee.  Not so much for 2011, as with the loss of Marcum, the Jays are unlikely to contend for a post season spot, but for the ensuing years when they might.

Congrats to Toronto's Joey Votto for winning the 2010 Lou Marsh award as Canada's top athelete.  Only the 3rd time a baseball player has won it (also L. Walker and F. Jenkins).  I have felt that participants in the major N.A. pro sports have often gotten short-changed in the Lou Marsh voting, so I am pleasantly surprised to see Votto win it, particularly in a Winter Olympic year.

Spicol - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 02:28 PM EST (#227560) #

Yeah, big mistake to see the Yanks lose out on a free agent then assume they will collapse.

Who said that? Certainly not me. The Yankees are a team with some aging key pieces coming off of a 95-win season. They're just simply not a lock for 95+ wins at this point.

Sure, they could make additional moves but until they do, we shouldn't give them credit for them.

Richard S.S. - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 02:41 PM EST (#227561) #

K.C. was Interested in and maybe trying to acquire Brett Lawrie http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/odds-ends-pavano.html from Milwaukee when we got him.   I see two people in K.C. I would go after, Greinke (just so no one else competing with us for the Wild Card gets him) and Soria to Close.   Would some combination of: 1) Kyle Drabek or Zachary Stewart, 2) Brett Lawrie, 3) J.P. Arencibia or Travis d'Arnaud or any other Catcher, 4) Anthony Gose or Jake Marisnick, 5) a prospect or two... get us one or both?

This let's us offer good value and keep good value.

John Northey - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 02:44 PM EST (#227562) #
Checking Sickels I see the Royals have 4 A/A- prospects (3B/1B/CA/LHP), and 7 in the B's (3 LHP, 1 RHP, OF, 2B, SS), top 26 were C+.

For comparison the Yankees had 1 A and 5 B's in 2010 (no 2011 list yet, top 16 were C+). The Jays in 2011 have 1 A and 13 B's (top 23 all C+), plus Lawrie was a B+ in 2010 (hasn't listed him yet this year).

This suggests, unless the Yankees added a lot (I don't keep a close eye on the minors) that they will have serious trouble trading for anyone.
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:03 PM EST (#227566) #

Ruben Amaro's attempt to recreate the magic of those Atlanta teams

Depends. When does Cole Hamels go all Smoltz-40-saves on the world?

Joe Blanton = Charlie Leibrandt??

Wildrose - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:32 PM EST (#227567) #
Overpay ( sorry couldn't resist - great nickname - actually getting a contract for what he's probably worth) gets 1 year $ 5 million.

The Overbay signing is for one year and $5 million, Rob Biertempfel tweets. That’s not my
money, but I’d like to think if I had $5 million I could find better ways to use it, and one would think a team as poor as the Pirates could too.


The teams near the bottom of the heap generally seem to be spending some of their revenue sharing money.

brent - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:37 PM EST (#227568) #

I am relieved to see Overbay gone. Now, if only Wells would opt out of that contract at the end of next season...

sam - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:41 PM EST (#227569) #
Richard, get off Greinke. Drabek and Snider will not be part of that deal. It'll be something like Lawrie, D'Arnaud, and Stewart. People like Gose, Marisnick, Drabek, Snider, Hechevaria, and I'd imagine anyone drafted or signed by Anthopolous will not be part of the deal. Greinke comes with serious issues. He has had one exceptional year, and one good year. Last year he was average and need I remind you he lost 17 games one year as well. The Jays need to use something like the Lee trade to Seattle as a reference point to what they should give up. The market for Greinke is quite inflated at the moment. The Jays should stay away for the time being.
Forkball - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:45 PM EST (#227570) #
1 year, $5 million for Overbay from the Pirates.

I know he's been a solid player for the Jays, but I'm kind of glad there's going to be a change at 1b, particularly if Lind can play the position.  And if he can't we'll find that out too.

The trade from Milwaukee ended up being essentially Overbay for Bush with everyone else not making much of a contribution.  Probably a small win for the Jays overall.

chocolatethunder - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 03:52 PM EST (#227571) #
How great would it be if the Yankees signed Kevin Gregg...just a thought...and I agree Drabek and Snider is ridiculous...Cost wise it would have to be the equivalent of 2 first round picks ( to compensate for the eventual free agency), also a prime prospect to compensate for this year....IMHO  ...Stewart/Lawrie....D'Arnaud, Gose, Hechavarria combo
Maldoff - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 04:06 PM EST (#227572) #
According to ESPN, Gregg has singed with the Orioles...
Moe - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 04:17 PM EST (#227574) #
Overbay was by no means Ryan Howard or Teixeira but I think Jays fans underappreciate him.  He was ok offensively and good defensively.  He had an unfortunate wrist injury that are always hard to come back from and the type of unpredictable injuries.  Once you factor that in (lost 2007), he was worth his contract.

Seeing the contracts Gregg and Olivio are getting, one could argue that Jays would have been served better to pick up the option and trade them.  The one year options were below (in Olivio's case much below) the average annual salary these guys got on multi year deals. Would have netted better prospects than your average sandwich pick (closer to the majors) and the Jays could have even kicked in the money they have to use as a signing bonus to get better prospects.

Ryan C - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 04:27 PM EST (#227575) #
Joey Votto has been named the winner of this year's Lou Marsh award for top Canadian Athlete.
Yahoo Sports
david wang - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 04:37 PM EST (#227577) #
I don't think you would have gotten much better than a sandwich pick for those guys. You are only saving the other team a couple million dollars. There were other players of similar talent and cost compared to Olivo and Gregg, that Seattle and Baltimore would likely have just turned to those free agents instead.

If you are Baltimore, would you rather have Jesse Crain and a B prospect, or Kevin Gregg and 2 million dollars? Or likewise with Torrealba
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 04:45 PM EST (#227578) #

the [Texas] franchise likely would have been pilloried by the local fan base

I get why you say that, Hodgie. but it just ain't true. The Rangers did make an extraordinarily good faith effort to retain Lee, and I think many are mildly disappointed that he's gone now. But the schtick around here is In Nolan We Trust, and there would have been no pillorying. Hell, Nolan admitted recently that the team was entertaining an offer for Michael Young, who is the current Mr. Ranger that Nolan himself used to be, and the reaction was not anything like I expected it to be ...

Hodgie - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 05:19 PM EST (#227580) #
Thank you for the correction Mick. As a long suffering Cowboys fan it was a bad assumption on my part for thinking that In Jerry We Distrust would cross over to the Rangers demographic as well.
earlweaverfan - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 06:11 PM EST (#227582) #
According to ESPN, Gregg has singed with the Orioles...

That is almost certainly what Gregg will do with them - as opposed to putting out the flames!


Magpie - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 07:25 PM EST (#227585) #
I'm kind of glad there's going to be a change at 1b, particularly if Lind can play the position.

Well, Overbay's been a better hitter than Lind in two of the last three seasons.
sam - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 08:22 PM EST (#227587) #
I would think Kerry Wood would be a good option to close for the Jays next year. A bullpen that started with Frasor, Camp, Wood, Purcey, Jansen, Carlson wouldn't be too bad and probably better than the Rays and Orioles.

I don't think trading for Soria would be a good option right now.

Is Lars Anderson a failed prospect? He certainly doesn't seem to be in Boston's long-term plans?
Jonny German - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:08 PM EST (#227588) #
Brett Cecil tweets - @CEC0208
Thomas - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:14 PM EST (#227589) #
From what I'm reading, the Gregg deal isn't official yet. What is official is Jeremy Accardo to the Orioles. One year and $1.08 million.

As for Lars Anderson, I don't think he's failed yet, but his star isn't as bright as it was two years ago. His 2009 turned many people off him, from what I read (although perhaps too much). He's blocked in Boston, clearly, but could always DH with Big Papi very possibly going to leave after 2011. I think the Red Sox might give him the year in Triple-A to evaluate him and then either position him to spend some time at DH or trade him in July or next offseason. I know DHs don't hit as well as one might expect, but I would be a bit surprised if the Red Sox handed the job to Anderson unless he has a much better year at Pawtucket. I wouldn't be surprised if he's dealt at some point. I prefer Alonso, but he would come at a higher cost.

Matt Stairs signed a minor league deal with the Nationals. Keep on truckin', Matt. The day when Matt Stairs retires will be a sad one.
Chuck - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:22 PM EST (#227591) #

The day when Matt Stairs retires will be a sad one.

He can't retire yet. There's still a bunch of teams he hasn't played for.

TamRa - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:33 PM EST (#227592) #
From Twitter:

(Jon Heyman)

matsui's total package will be for just under $5 mil, im hearing now. #athletics
(no mention of overpayment)

is that overbay or overpay? RT @RobBiertempfel Lyle Overbay signs 1-yr, $5M contract with #Pirates. Will be everyday 1B


(Me)

Matsui total WAR over last 3 years = 5.3; Overbay = 5.9; career (8 years each), Matsui = 14.7, Overbay = 14.3 -Revise?

---------------------------------------------------------------

I figure the Yankees HAVE  to be offering Montero and something for

1. Josh Johnson
2. Felix Hernandez
3. Matt Garza


Failing that - they might take Zambrano's contract off the Cubs hands
TamRa - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:36 PM EST (#227594) #
Heh. Heyman is unimpressed with my rebuttal.

:D


Mike Green - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:37 PM EST (#227595) #
The day he retires will be the day Matt can no longer take the Stairs.  Sorry.

I am still interested in who the club will acquire to play 2B or 3B in 2011.  I am hoping that they are not planning to start Lawrie in the major leagues.

cybercavalier - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:40 PM EST (#227596) #
I would think Kerry Wood would be a good option to close for the Jays next year.

Agree. Serviceable, as long as his health is monitored.
Shaker - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 09:45 PM EST (#227598) #
I think Bautista, at this point, is our 3B for 2011.

Other options include trading for Chone Figgins or Aramis Ramirez.

We could also sign Encarnacion or Beltre.

Reclamation projects include Andy LaRoche or Felipe Lopez.
Shaker - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 10:22 PM EST (#227602) #
Re: Kerry Wood, where is the love for Brian Fuentes?

After the All-Star break, Fuentes went 8 for 8 in Saves, had a WHIP below 1, a 1.19 ERA and a BAA of .133. For the season he held LHB to an OPS of .371, had an overall K:BB of 2.4 and an ERA under 3.

Apparently he is seeking $6-8M to close. Why not sign him to a 2-year $14M or 3-year $18M deal?
TamRa - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 10:30 PM EST (#227604) #
I like Fuentes better than Wood, but not at that price. if he stays on the market you might get him on pretty much the same deal Gregg got last year (one year and build value, or multiple years at better money on out year)

Wood, IMO, seems to be the same "Mr. Adventure" as Gregg (re control) - I'd like to think we cold do better.

sam - Tuesday, December 14 2010 @ 11:43 PM EST (#227607) #
Ya I don't see why you let Gregg leave and then sign Fuentes for those numbers which are higher than Gregg. I've never been sold on Fuentes. Some serious doubts that he can consistently get RH hitters out.

But I think Wood would be a good option.

As per first base I think the Jays would do well to bring in some sort of reclamation project or someone who hasn't really got a fair shake over someone whose played a bit in the major leagues like Adam LaRoche. Players that come to mind are Kila Ka'halue, Lars Anderson, Yonder Alonso,
cybercavalier - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 12:01 AM EST (#227608) #
On reclamation project on former Jays:

Gabe Gross and Reed Johnson could be OF options.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 12:39 AM EST (#227609) #
Guys like Gross & Johnson are the types AA would send a spring invite to only. Johnson hit for an 80 OPS+ last year, and last cracked 100 in 2006, one of only 2 times he has done so (his rookie year as well). Johnson is entering his age 34 season and is no more than a AAA emergency backup imo.

Gross in 2006 had a 118 OPS+ and that is it for cracking 100. A 65 last year at age 30 might be his last crack at the majors. Another guy I'd give no more than a AAA contract to.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:25 AM EST (#227611) #
Ya I don't see why you let Gregg leave and then sign Fuentes for those numbers which are higher than Gregg.


you let Gregg leave and sign a guy just like him to get the draft pick (and because the "guy just like him" might be cheaper this year than Gregg's option was)

I've never been sold on Fuentes. Some serious doubts that he can consistently get RH hitters out.
But I think Wood would be a good option


Here's the last 4 years for Wood, Fuentes, and Gregg (4 years because that's how long Wood has been a reliever):
ERA - WHIP - Sv - IP - H - BB - K - ERA+ - H/9 - K/BB - K/9
Wood --- 3.52 - 1.27 -- 62 - 191.2 - 155 - 88 - 220 - 125 - 7.27 - 2.5 - 10.33
Fuentes -3.13 - 1.17 - 122 - 227 - 177 - 89 - 231 - 145 - 7.02 - 2.6 - 9.16
Gregg --- 3.79 - 1.30 - 121 - 280.1 - 226 - 137 - 274 - 115 - 7.26 - 2.0 - 8.80

A. Other than on durability, Gregg is NOT as good as the other two

B. Can't see anything here that would justify clearly prefering Wood over Fuentes except the sexy "former stud" famous name. No, check that - Wood IS 2 years younger.

C. that said, there's not a huge enough distinction to go out and overpay the first of these two instead of the second

Some other candidates:

Jon Rauch who I've been dismissing - here is his last 4 years minus the misadventure in Arizona (bad pitching coach?)

3.19 - 1.14 - 209 - 191 - 48 - 175 (42 saves - seldom used as closer)
His ERA+ overall since 2007 was 119, it goes up without Arizona.

Chad Qualls - last year was an unspeakable disaster - coming into last season his career ERA+ was 134 and his ERA was 3.32 with a 1.20 WHIP. Seemed to do better in set up than closing.

Bobby Jenks
presumed to want more money, I guess, but that might leave him standing when the music stops. Again, last 4 years:

3.33 - 1.15 - 232.2 - 202 - 64 - 204 - 139 ERA+

Jenks is also the youngest of the bunch and, (turns 30 in mMarch) other than Soriano, might be the select choice among veterans of the closer role.

Takashi Saito
- by far the oldest, but not slowing down and if you want a stopgap, this ain't bad (last 3 years because in 2007 he was insane):

2.59 - 1.21 - 156.2 - 131 - 58 - 181 - 166 ERA+

and if you are worried about his age (41 in Feb.) here's last year:

2.83 - 1.26 - 54 - 41 - 17 - 69 - 139

Assuming Alex isn't looking for a long term solution here, this would be the guy I'd sign because I'll wager you might get the best price here.  Heck, if it were me I'd probably have already signed him since he's down with setting up, I could still go get Fuentes or Jenks if i wanted.

Jesse Crain - never had a chance to close, a lot like Rauch before 2010. A few months younger than Jenks. Local guy. 115 ERA+ over last three years.

Might could throw Matt Gurrier in this pile too as a good set-up guy who never got a chance to close.

There's 3-5 options there that won't disappoint me if they are not overpaid. Probably a few you can trade for too. For instance, ifthe O's do sign Gregg, I'd be down with a small deal for Mike Gonzalez. (if he's not down with a shoulder injury or some such)

Before signing with the O's, Gonzalez had a 168 ERA+ for his career, a 2.57 ERA, and a 1.22 WHIP (also 10.58 K/9). He's set to make $6 million next year but, if healthy, I'd do 6 for him before I'd do 5 for Gregg in a heartbeat.

If the O's are dumb enough to be washing their hands of him I'd be all over it.
(in fact, if he showed me much in ST I'd try to sneak in an extension if my scouts liked what they saw) after he came off the DL in July last year, he had a 2.78 ERA from there through the end of the season.

22.2 IP, 13 H, 10 BB, 28 K - i think I just talked myself into my next irrational obsession and blog post.


You could also gamble on Rich Harden if you thought he'd hold together better at the back of a 'pen.


Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:14 AM EST (#227615) #

Are we going to compete in 2011?   It's a little difficult finding a good Closer now, isn't it?   Are we going to compete in 2012?   Do you think it will be any easier to find one this year?   Are we going to compete in 2013?   Any easier this year?

Top Closers, with a track record of consistency, are very hard to find.   If you can trade for one - go for it.   If you can develop one in-house - WOW!   But until that time...   Good Closers are almost as hard to find, but well worth going after.   Signing anyone less, for any reason, is a waste of time.   Kevin Gregg, for all his limitations, was a good Closer, we just need an upgrade now.

K.C., for all their problems, has a Top closer.   Philly, as good as they are, have Brad Lidge, a Good Closer.   Why do we have to settle for someone else's discards?

 

CeeBee - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:21 AM EST (#227616) #
Where do good closers come from? They all start out in someone's farm system and then usually work their way through the bullpen to the closer position. Might it be that we have one of our own lurking down on the farm or even on the ML roster? I'm not much worried at this point in time who the Jays closer will be. Not sure Alex is either.
Ryan C - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:37 AM EST (#227617) #
Why do we have to settle for someone else's discards?

I don't think it's about settling, but more about making smart personnel and financial decisions. How many wins does a great closer get you in a season versus an average closer? How much does a great closer (in free agency) cost you versus another random closer (not necessarily obtained through free agency)?

I think if you're a team on the verge of winning and everything else is clicking but you just need a closer, then sure go ahead and spend $10+ million to get the best closer you can. Otherwise there are other areas to spend money on that will give much better returns. It's my feeling (and there are probably numbers to prove or disprove this somewhere but I haven't really looked) that bullpen arms, including closers, are one of the most overvalued commodities in baseball compared to what you actually get from them.
Matthew E - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:38 AM EST (#227618) #
I'm perfectly okay with auditioning other teams' discards to find a closer. How do you think the Jays got Tom Henke?
John Northey - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:39 AM EST (#227619) #
Most great closers are not that at first. For Toronto examples, Henke was gained via free agency compensation (wasn't one of Texas' top 25). Ward was a failed starter. In the HOF you find closers who were failed starters and probably could've been had for a song early in their careers (from Eck to Goose to Fingers).

Heck, even Mariano Rivera (god of closers) is a failed starter who was probably available after his rookie season if someone had put a good vet in front of the Yanks at the time.

Focusing on finding a closer is a losing effort. Remember Myers? Dennis Lamp? Bill Caudill? Howsabout BJ Ryan? Blowing tons on a closer is a poor idea and Jays history as well as MLB history has demonstrated it time and time again. Hopefully AA is smarter than that.
bpoz - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 10:11 AM EST (#227621) #
Closers:- We have been talking about that since before last season ended. One Bauxite said something then that made so much sense to me.

He said this manager would make his best bullpen arm his closer and the next 2 best the setup men. I immediately thought of Fraser, Accardo & some one that did quite OK when Ward got injured, he too was an unknown.

We have "quantity of arms", I like that thought process and so have faith. Also our farm seems to be on a roll in producing pitchers.

Since 2009, I know there are some, but I cannot think of who they are; that were not quite decent from our farms pitching produce.
Shaker - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 11:29 AM EST (#227628) #
The reason I brought up Fuentes was to see if anyone had knowledge as to why he wasn't considered a premium closer anymore?

Fuentes has:
1.  A shiny saves collection - 4 years with more than 30, including one year with 48!
2.  A WHIP of less than 1.17 in 4 of his last 5 seasons.  (His one poor WHIP year occurred during his massive SV year - 2009.)
3.  A 3-year OPS against of .632, compared to Matt Capps at .743 and the mighty Joe Nathan a .536

I'm not suggesting Fuentes is a top tier closer in the Mo or Nathan realm, but nor am I advocating paying him like KRod or Mo.  At half their salaries I think Fuentes would be pretty good value.   His stats are better than Downs (3 years, $15M) and as shown in above posts, better than many other closers and near-closers.

I also understand that closers are a later addition for a contending team, but in a year with little competition to sign a closer you should take that window of opportunity.  Yes closers are overrated but they do help settle down the rest of the bullpen and with ours being a relatively young 'pen, Fuentes should help the younger ones get more established.


Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 11:44 AM EST (#227629) #

Well, he's 35 and it's hard to project him out two or three years into that "contending" window. And as I understand it. the Sawx are chasing him hard, and will almost certainly overpay.

I just don't see Fuentes as a smart move.

cybercavalier - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 11:48 AM EST (#227630) #
this manager would make his best bullpen arm his closer and the next 2 best the setup men. I immediately thought of Fraser, Accardo & some one that did quite OK when Ward got injured, he too was an unknown. We have "quantity of arms", I like that thought process and so have faith. Also our farm seems to be on a roll in producing pitchers.

I agree. However, although I am not in position to comment on individual as a internet poster, it seems Accardo took himself out of the jays bullpen with his response towards player transaction. IMO, Accardo would have chances at the Jays bullpen last season. At least, with Downs and Gregg signed with other teams, Accardo and Merkin Valdez would have at least chances to prove their potential; they could be traded away once their pitching values would go up, much like Gonzalez 2.0 for Escobar. Anyway, the Jays organization have pitching depth, even after the Marcum for Lawrie. Still I think signing Kerry Wood as a closer-like pitcher would be a bargain; he can also be traded to teams of contention. If the Jays can get near the wild card, as prospected by posters on this site that only the BoSox is getting much better in recent future seasons, Wood or free agent pitching signing can be kept until the offseason. By then they can be released for nesting draft picks from other teams, or resigned for more pitching for the Jays. At any rate, the whole picture is a win-win for the Jays and the pitchers; much like John Buck as a catcher last season.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 11:57 AM EST (#227631) #
Closers are an odd thing in baseball. Their value is hard to get a full handle on.

For a starting pitcher it is clear that allowing as few runs as possible is vital as you have no idea what will happen later in the game. For a hitter getting as many runs in as possible is obviously important as, again, anything can happen later on. For a setup man, see starters.

But Closers? They are the end of the game. Their result isn't variable but boolean - yes they win, no they don't. It isn't often a different result occurs (IE: they get pulled for someone else). So Rivera going 33-5 and Gregg going 37-6 are very comparable even though it is clear who is the better pitcher. Why? Because in the end they had about the same effect on the teams winning/losing. Billy Wagner had a 1.43 ERA (remember how he was the old guy the year the Jays signed Ryan, everyone figuring he could be done at any time while Ryan was the better bet to keep going) but went 37-7 thus could be argued to have not helped his team as much as Gregg helped the Jays (W-L record suggests he was given shots in ties a bit more often, and did better but generally that isn't what you pay the bucks for).

Paying millions for a closer is a big risk. Unlike all other players he is limited in when he can help, and the role he helps in should be a win around 95% of the time anyways (a lead in the 9th). If used as they were in the 70's, at the point the game is most at risk, then they might have a lot more value but that ain't happening anytime soon outside of the playoffs and Rivera time.
smcs - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 12:00 PM EST (#227632) #
Heck, even Mariano Rivera (god of closers) is a failed starter who was probably available after his rookie season if someone had put a good vet in front of the Yanks at the time.

I believe the very nearly completed trade in 1996 was Mariano Rivera for Felix Fermin because the Yanks weren't sure their rookie SS was quite ready for the big leagues.
katman - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 12:07 PM EST (#227633) #

I'm happy for Doc. He wanted, above all else, to win. His chances just improved.

Lets hope the Phils' bats don't become their weak point - but the 2010 SF Giants should offer some comfort there.

Shaker - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 12:33 PM EST (#227635) #
Gregg has saved 89 vs 22 blown saves over the last 3 seasons, Fuentes was 102 -15 and Rivera was 116 - 8.

To me that's 3 very different experiences from your closer.

An upgrade to Fuentes from Gregg (or our current 2011 in-house solution) would be quite useful and worthy of salary dollars.


eudaimon - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:02 PM EST (#227636) #
Anyone think we should take a shot on Trevor Hoffman? He was elite only one year ago, and his peripherals last year weren't all that bad. Most of the runs came before the All-Star break (8.33 ERA), with a 2.66 ERA after the break. He'd probably come pretty cheap too (maybe even a minor-league deal at this point), and might be a good influence on the team.

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/player_main.aspx?sport=MLB&id=1796

Chuck - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:23 PM EST (#227637) #

Gregg has saved 89 vs 22 blown saves over the last 3 seasons, Fuentes was 102 -15 and Rivera was 116 - 8.

Kevin Gregg was not used exclusively as a closer during this period. Thus, many of his "blown" saves were the the kind where a middle reliever or setup man comes into a game earlier than a save situation, and where his only results can be a hold or a blown save (in a game his team was winning). I'm no Kevin Gregg apologist, but you're not really comparing apples to apples here.

 

Chuck - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:27 PM EST (#227638) #

his peripherals last year weren't all that bad

BB/9, SO/9 and HR/9 were all not good.

Anyone think we should take a shot on Trevor Hoffman?

My vote.

John Northey - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:28 PM EST (#227639) #
Hoffman makes a lot more sense than some other options mentioned. The Jays need a stopgap until an inhouse solution appears and Hoffman could be just that. If a kid takes over during the year, great. If not, Hoff could be a decent placeholder. This is assuming he'd want to come to the AL and Canada.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:29 PM EST (#227640) #
I agrre with you, eudaimon. Given the young pitching the Jays have, Hoffman would be a good influence due to his accomplishment. How approachable is Hoffman? some news reported that a few young pitchers are timid to approach Holliday when Doc was a Jay. We sure want our young pitching getting something out of Hoffman.
Original Ryan - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:37 PM EST (#227641) #
Given the young pitching the Jays have, Hoffman would be a good influence due to his accomplishment.

The Blue Jays will have Pat Hentgen in the bullpen filling the mentor role.  There's no need for Hoffman.

Besides, Hentgen is younger than Hoffman and might even be able to pitch better at this stage.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:52 PM EST (#227642) #
Re: Ryan

If Hoffman could serve as a veteran stopgap, the Jay could also look for a younger version instead. So if Hoffman was to be signed, he would provide more than just pitching performance.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:56 PM EST (#227644) #
Because in the end they had about the same effect on the teams winning/losing.

Exactly. And that's the whole point.

Unlike all other players he is limited in when he can help, and the role he helps in should be a win around 95% of the time

In 2010, that figure was 95.5. Curiously enough, that's exactly the same as it was 50 years ago. The modern use of bullpens and closers hasn't improved a team's chances of holding a ninth inning lead. (A shout out to Joe Posnanski, for this, and I highly recommend his entire article.)

Unless we're dealing with Mariano Rivera, of course - he truly is the Greatest Closer who ever lived and the Yankees have converted 97.3% of their ninth inning leads since he assumed the role back in 1997.  Whereas Casey Stengel's revolving door of 1950s relievers only managed to preserve a ninth inning lead... 97.3% of the time?

Yup.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:57 PM EST (#227645) #
Hentgen, if playing, would be entering his age 42 season this year - he retired after 2004 (70 ERA+ over 80 IP with 3.7 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9).

Hoffman: entering his age 43 season, 67 ERA+ last year, his first sub 100 since Carter touched them all. 3.6 BB/9, 5.7 K/9. The past 2 years he had K/9 of 8+ and BB/9 of 2.3 or less. He would certainly be worth a flier at $1 mil or less with incentives (games, games finished) that could push it up a fair amount.

Would I pay Hoffman $5 mil? Heck no. But $1 mil or less? Why not? The Jays blew $900k on Accardo last year in AAA.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 01:59 PM EST (#227646) #
Love that article. I do wonder if it has had an effect on 1 run leads - doubt it, but it would be an interesting study to add to the mix.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 02:20 PM EST (#227647) #

Well , John Northey: 

Let's see, David Purcey (28) is a failed Starter.  Is he good enough to be our Closer?   Brad Mills (25) might be a failed A.L. East Starter.   Is he good enough to be our Closer?   Robert Ray (26) might be a failed A.L. East Starter.   Is he good enough to be our Closer?

If not, who is?

Matthew E - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 02:37 PM EST (#227648) #
I'd be okay giving Purcey a shot at it. Maybe not first thing in April, but over the course of the year. As for the other two, I dunno; I'd have to see more of them. Subjectively they don't seem like the type, but of course that's deceptive.
cybercavalier - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 02:45 PM EST (#227649) #
Re: Richard S.S.

In my humble opinion, why do the Jays have to find a closer?



smcs - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 02:51 PM EST (#227650) #

If not, who is?

Jason Frasor probably is.  Same with Shawn Camp and Casey Janssen.  I wouldn't be surprised if Janssen started the season as the closer, with Camp and Frasor seeing the highest leverage innings and Purcey being the main lefty out of the pen.  Jesse Carlson is kicking around, not to mention Scott Richmond, Dirk Hayhurst
and maybe, just maybe, Dustin McGowan.  Are these names sexy?  No, probably not.  Will this bullpen be better than last year?  Maybe, maybe not.  Downs and Gregg were good and tough to replace, just as Brian Tallet was truly terrible and even tougher to replace.  But if the starters go 7 innings instead of 6, the bullpen will look that much better.  Worrying about the bullpen too much will lead teams to think Brandon League is better than Brandon Morrow.

Subjectively they don't seem like the type, but of course that's deceptive.

This statement made me think of BJ Ryan.  He just looked like a closer, looked like a guy who would get amped to throw three outs and that's it.  But his stuff was...not closer-like.  The low-90s fastball, the swooping slider, his short-arm near-balk delivery...but he just looked like a closer.  Of course, when he was on, he was unhittable.  In 2006, the Jays went 80-0 when leading after 8 innings. 

Shaker - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 03:04 PM EST (#227652) #
If you exclude Type A free agents, who are the 3 best available free agent relievers at this point? (Ignore salary demands.)

Second question, should the Jays spend money upgrading their bullpen given the loss of both their closer and their set-up man?
Magpie - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 03:09 PM EST (#227653) #
Brian Tallet was truly terrible and even tougher to replace.

He was indeed pretty lousy when he was used as a starter/swing man, as in the past two seasons. But in his three Toronto seasons used exclusively as a reliever, he was the opposite of terrible

YearTmWLW-L%ERAGGSGFCGSHOSVIPHRERHRBBIBBSOHBPBKWPBFERA+WHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
2006-2008TOR66.5003.38143134000173.0146696510811413810137361311.3127.60.54.27.21.7
And I would expect that's the Tallet that Cardinals fans will see.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 03:28 PM EST (#227655) #
if the starters go 7 innings instead of 6, the bullpen will look that much better.

Yes, but that's an enormous, enormous thing - it's 162 innings, a third of their workload.

Alas, no one's starters go 7 innings. Not anymore, not in the American League. In fact, no one's starters even manage to go 6.1 innings.

Last year's average innings per game by the starting pitcher:

SEA        6.29
LAA 6.26
BOS 6.24
CWS 6.20
TBR 6.17
OAK 6.12

League Avg 6.05

DET 6.02
NYY 6.01
TOR 5.92
MIN 5.90
TEX 5.87
CLE 5.86
BAL 5.84
KCR 5.80
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 03:53 PM EST (#227656) #
Surprising to see a terrible team at the top of that list. Naturally Felix had a lot to do with it (7.34 IP/GS over 34 starts), but the one that really stands out is Cliff Lee - 7.98 IP/GS! That was in 13 starts in Seattle. In Texas he dropped down to a more normal ace level of 7.25 IP/GS (15 starts).
John Northey - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:02 PM EST (#227658) #
Finding a closer, lets check HOF'ers for a trend...

Last season viewed as a starting pitcher....
Eck: 88 ERA+
Fingers: 97 ERA+
Goose: 91 ERA+
Sutter: was always a closer
Wilhelm: Closer in majors at start, 3.55 ERA in minors mixed between starting/relieving in an era when 2's were common
Rivera: 84 ERA+ (OK, not in yet but will be)

So, what do you see? Guys who had ERA+'s in the 80's or 90's as starters just before shifting to the pen.

Purcey: 75 ERA+ his 2 years as a starter in majors
Mills: 55 ERA+ so far, not a real choice
Rzepczynski: 100 ERA+ so far, bit wild but a strong candidate
Litsch: 105 ERA+, but just 72 last year, low K/9 so not likely
Robert Ray: 108 in his brief ML time - not great K/BB numbers so not likely
McGowan: 94 ERA+, missed 2 years though so expecting anything is a big risk

I see Purcey & Rzepczynski as the best bets there from guys who have some ML experience. I'd certainly give both a shot in setup roles in 2011 while letting Frasor close until someone steps up. Are they HOF'ers like the guys I listed about? Not very likely (under 1%). However, did anyone see any of them (outside of maybe Sutter) being solid closers before they became closers? I doubt it.

The point is, blowing $5+ million on a closer is just wasting your money unless you have a painfully obvious hole there (ala the Jays of the 83-mid 85 time frame). Gillick, a HOF GM, had signed a few guys for that role but in the end it was filled by a guy he got as compensation for losing a free agent (followed by getting a setup man who was a horrid starter in Eichhorn, followed by a killer setup/closer guy in Ward who also was a failed starter). So maybe even then it is just a waste of money.
Ryan C - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:08 PM EST (#227659) #
That's a good blog post you linked Magpie and I agree with him. Closers make the big money and get the big fame and contracts, they're the stars of the bullpen. But are they really the most important members of the bullpen? When would you rather use your best reliever, when you're tied in the 7th or when you just need 3 outs and have a 3 run cushion?
Original Ryan - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:09 PM EST (#227661) #
My personal preference would be to do away with the closer role entirely and use the team's best reliever to put out fires rather than accumulate saves, but that's unlikely to happen.

If the Blue Jays don't have an assigned closer heading into spring training or the regular season, it's no big deal. If there are a few decent pitchers in the bullpen, one of them will wind up being an effective closer. It's not something to be worried about, particularly when we're not even at the half-way point of the offseason.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:13 PM EST (#227662) #
Magpie, Tallet made only 5 starts last year and wasn't too bad, but was rocked to the tune of .288/.376/.551 in 29 relief appearances.  Expecting him to be anything better than a serviceable long reliever isn't really realistic.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:15 PM EST (#227663) #
Surprising to see a terrible team at the top of that list.

My first thought was Ballpark Effect. Safeco is a tough place to score runs -ven for the non-Mariners! - so the starters don't get hooked as quickly. But yeah, with Felix and a bit of Cliff Lee, Seattle's starters were quite a bit better (3.83 ERA) than their relievers (4.23)
Alex Obal - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:19 PM EST (#227664) #
For the hell of it, I went through the game logs for two Yankees teams at random: 2005 and 1956, and looked at games where they were either tied or leading heading into the other team's last at-bat. The axis on the bottom is how many runs ahead the Yankees are heading into the opponents' last ups. The vertical bars are the number of wins and losses each team had for each lead:

"Teams have always held a very high percentage of their ninth-inning leads, no matter what their strategy for doing so. The good teams win almost every single time." Well gosh, I wonder why. And since they have this mysterious, built-in ability to win disproportionately many of their ninth-inning leads, obviously the good teams don't need closers!

You'd think if you wanted to assess the impact of the one-inning closer it would make more sense to focus solely on one- or two-run leads, but hey... who cares about using relevant data when you just want to write pretty. Le sigh.

I do sort of cautiously with Posnanski's conclusion that you would ideally have your second- or third-best reliever as closer. However, parts of his reasoning are pretty atrocious.

(The 2005 Yankees: Unit, Sheffield, Brown, Wang, Bernie, Tino, Cano, Flash Gordon... Rivera starts the year horribly, Yankees start the year 11-19, then win 10 straight, then lose 6 straight to the Central, then hang a 13-run 8th on the Devil Rays to win 20-11, then gradually overtake the Red Sox. The Felix Escalona Game, Aaron Small Wonder, the Chacin/Chacon rivalry, I'm sure I'm missing all the good stuff.)

(The 1956 Yankees: Mantle, Berra, Skowron, McDougald, Ford, Kucks, Larsen...)

Magpie - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:21 PM EST (#227665) #
Expecting him to be anything better than a serviceable long reliever isn't really realistic.

I think it's very realistic (assuming he stays in his role and is healthy.) Were I a wagering fellow, I would wager on it. An ERA+ better than... oh, let's say 115 for sure.

Tallet in most respects wasn't all that different from the Tallet of previous years - save for the astonishing, mind-boggling, downright terrifying number of home runs he allowed (20 in less than 80 innings - he gave up a total of 10 HRs in his first three years as a Jay.) Makes me wonder if he was tipping or something..
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:23 PM EST (#227666) #
And the '56 Bombers would whup their 2005 descendants to the tune of 102-52  (in the old schedule) or, say, 107-55 nowadays.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:30 PM EST (#227667) #
The Felix Escalona Game

I thought I had finally blotted that one from my memory.

I hate you.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:38 PM EST (#227668) #
Tallet's HR/FB rate in 2007 was 1.4%; his HR/FB rate in 2010 was 16.1%.  The former is actually more unusual than the latter (rates are usually in the 10-11% range).  For his career, Tallet is now at 9.3%, and he is likely to do no better than that in 2011. 
92-93 - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 04:57 PM EST (#227669) #
As riveting as the discussion about Tallet and other relievers is for a 40m payroll, here's a laugh from our old favourite, Clarence, via @RGriffinStar -

Cito on 2nd guess via stats: A lot of times you guys have information we don't. You'll come back with why..and, well, 'I didn't know that.'
eudaimon - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 05:39 PM EST (#227670) #
Help out a relative Blue Jays noob: what is the Felix Escalona game?
Alex Obal - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 06:11 PM EST (#227671) #
It's this. Miguel Batista was okay as a closer, but he had his moments. That was one of them.
rtcaino - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 06:43 PM EST (#227673) #
.2 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 1 HR, 33/16 P/S, -.794 WPA

Ouch.

Jonny German - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 06:50 PM EST (#227674) #
Jose Bautista has joined the Twits: @joeybats19
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 08:07 PM EST (#227675) #

Interesting comparison.  Both players struggled with injuries on the same Jays affiliate this year.  Both were drafted out of high school in 2007.  The average slash line for the league in question in 2010 was an abysmal .255/.324/.364 (.688 OPS) which made it the hardest run scoring environment in full season ball last year.

Player  Year Bavg  Obp  Slg OPS G   AB  R  H 2B 3B HR
  A         2010 .259 .315 .411 726 71 263 36 68 20 1   6
  B         2010 .252 .337 .404 741 61 218 39 55 12 3   5

BTW, I'm bored.

eudaimon - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 08:30 PM EST (#227676) #
Indeed. AA should sign some minor league scrub to tide us over until something happens.
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 08:52 PM EST (#227677) #
Ask and ye shall receive.  Jays are allegedly pursuing Octavio Dotel, per Morosi.
Matthew E - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:06 PM EST (#227678) #
Jose Bautista has joined the Twits

At first I read that as "Twins", and I was all, "What?! How? What?"

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:24 PM EST (#227679) #
Exact;ly my reaction, Matthew.
Ryan C - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 09:36 PM EST (#227680) #

In the year 3000 Youtube , Twitter , and Facebook will merge into one super time-wasting website called: YouTwitFace.
- Conan O'Brien

greenfrog - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 10:23 PM EST (#227681) #
This is kind of out there, but what about a package of Bautista + another player or two (say, Rzep/Stewart and Frasor) for Domonic Brown? (OK, OK, I know it's unlikely.) But it would give the Phillies a rock solid replacement for Werth, potentially meet other team needs (such as the bullpen) and Bautista would produce one or two high draft picks at the end of the season. Meanwhile, the Jays would continue their trend of adding young, high-upside players with a view to contending down the road.
stevieboy22 - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 11:22 PM EST (#227682) #
If I'm AA: with Bautista, my first goal is a 3 year extension, somewhere in the ballpark of 3/30... If JB doesn't do one, then trading him is probably your best option...

I think Bautista's agent has to talk some sense into him, and say "look, there is a strong chance you don't repeat this performance, and you won't ever make anything close to your 2011 salary again." And if Bautista is the real deal, then in 3 years, there is no reason he can't go out and still get a Jason Werth style contract...

There is obviously a possibility that Bautista is somewhere in between his 2009 self and his 2010 self. In which case, he probably ends up being a 10 million dollar a year player so the contract still isn't that bad for either party... He gets around his market value...

That being said, for the Jays if Bautista repeats and only signed a one year deal, it puts them in a Vernon Wells type spot; big contract you can't afford to lose on, but probably will. Can you really let the guy walk away after singing a tune called "we can spend whatever we like" for the last 3 years?

My prediction: Before the first pitch is thrown in 2011, the Jays will announce a 30 million/3 year deal with the self proclaimed Joey Bats! Knowing AA, as always there will be some sort of options... But in order to get JB to agree, it's going to take some large buyouts... My premise being, there is too much risk on both sides not to...


ayjackson - Wednesday, December 15 2010 @ 11:53 PM EST (#227683) #

Interesting thought Greenfrog.  Maybe include Blanton so they can afford Bautista.  Blanton and Brown for Bautista, Rzepczynksi and Thames?

I'm hoping the Angels lose out on Beltre and come after Bautista with Trout.

jgadfly - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 12:49 AM EST (#227684) #
Interesting thought Greenfrog ...  I second AY's commendation . Wouldn't that be some nice icing on the cake. I was thinking Alonso for Bautista but  Brown would be that much more .  Including Frasor and maybe Rzepczynski would really firm up their pen and possibly including Blanton would help with their bottom line. Plus we could cheer on the Phillies vs the Yank$ and the $ox until the younger guys arrive in a couple of years .
TamRa - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 03:14 AM EST (#227685) #
Rosenthal suggests the M's might deal Ardsma and - get this - go after Gregg.

Put me down as in favor of getting Ardsma if they sell low. from mid-June until the end of the year last year he was rock solid. If we had Gregg under contract and could swap them straight up I'd do it.

Magpie - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 04:50 AM EST (#227686) #
The Phillies are now looking to shed salary. Brown is as cheap as it gets. Bautista won't be. So forget that idea.
smcs - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 04:53 AM EST (#227687) #
Phillies vs the Yank$ and the $ox

You mean Phillie$.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 06:07 AM EST (#227688) #

In my humble opinion, why do the Jays have to find a closer?

If not, who is?

Jason Frasor probably is........Worrying about the bullpen too much will lead teams to think Brandon League is better than Brandon Morrow.

 

...should the Jays spend money upgrading their bullpen given the loss of both their closer and their set-up man?

Since it appears enough people are concerned about the Bullpen, I will discuss it once again.   Uncertainty is the biggest nemesis to an effective bullpen.   If you don't know when / what you have do, you might not be as effective as you should be.   If you have an established Closer, or someone (from Spring Training) you believe will do the job, you eliminate some of the uncertaincy that exists in a Bullpen.   A Bullpen is the only major piece of a MLB Team Roster without a set responsibility.   If you have a Closer for the 9th, then you could have a Primary Setup / Backup Closer for the 8th.   You should have a GO-TO Guy, the first pitcher in, to serve as a Fireman (in when it's at it's hottest) as well as emergency Setup / Close.   Even Cito 2.0 had that.   Everyone else pitches Long Relief, with a much better idea of when they pitch.   If you get a Closer, then a Setup/Closer, then  two GO-TO guys, you could get by with a long reliever and a 6th starter as your 6-Man Bullpen.

I suspect Alex Anthopoulos was blind-sided by the Cliff Lee signing.   I don't think he was planing on seeing N.Y. missing out on all the big names.   I believe if he had, this off-seaon might be different.   It should have been different, it should have been better.

Look at how hard it is find a good Closer in this off-season.   How hard will it be in July, possibly leading the wild card by 2 games, also leading the League in blown saves?   Not having a Closer is just being incompetent, or lazy, I don't know which is worse.   Jason Frasor was removed as closer and this Bullpen watched it happen, Jason is a decent pitcher, he's just not better than Kevin Gregg.  

Gregg, Downs, Tallet, all part of a 10th of 14 Teams Bullpen, are gone and not returning.   Wes Etheridege (RHP, 25, 6-1-185),Michael Hinckley (LHP, 28, 6-3-195), Winston Abreu (RHP, 33, 6-2-170) and Carlos Villanueva (RHP, 27, 6-2-230) are possible Bullpen additions, joining Shawn Camp (RHP, 35, 6-0-205), Jason Frasor (RHP, 33, 5-10-175), David Purcey (LHP, 28, 6-4-240) and Casey Janssen (RHP, 29, 6-3-235), Jesse Carlson (LHP, 30, 6-1-160) and Josh Roenicke (RHP, 6-3-195), Rommie Lewis (LHP, 28, 6-5-230) as our Bullpen.   That's just not good enough.

 


 

eudaimon - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 07:28 AM EST (#227689) #
The BP isn't great. It's still a bit early to get worked up about it. I'm glad we're not overpaying for a closer. One decent free-agent signing (Dotel?) and our BP looks a whole lot better.

I'm excited about Villaneuva. Great K rates, capable of pitching more innings... he could have the potential to be a closer, or a setup man. Rotoworld's description of him is this:
The 27-year-old right-hander has always been a real talent, but he never found an identity in Milwaukee, working both as a starter and reliever. It's not yet clear how the Blue Jays are going to use him.
Sounds familiar right?

eudaimon - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 07:32 AM EST (#227690) #
Abreu is also interesting, although he may just be a prototypical quad-A arm. Could still be a back of the bullpen arm though... we'll see how he looks in S.T.
85bluejay - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 07:55 AM EST (#227692) #

A big thank you to the Pittsburgh pirates for signing Lyle Overbay, thus eliminating any chance he would return.

Now, Kevin Gregg sign with the orioles so we can get a higher supp. pick.

greenfrog - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 07:59 AM EST (#227693) #
"The Phillies are now looking to shed salary. Brown is as cheap as it gets. Bautista won't be. So forget that idea."

This is one reason why a deal is unlikely, but, as has been noted, the Jays could take on Blanton (who is owed $8.5M in each of the next two years) and cover, say, half of Bautista's 2011 salary. Better that than use the budget to start signing aging veterans like Manny and Derrick Lee. In any case, Brown may not make the Phillies in 2011, so his low salary may not be the determining factor in deciding who starts in RF for the Phillies. He struggled in his debut last year and may not be ready. And Philadelphia might be willing to stretch the budget just a bit further if it means adding a player who could put them over the top.

That being said, I think it's more likely the Phillies wait until spring or even the trade deadline to make a move. Corner OFs are relatively easily obtainable, and no doubt the Phillies want to hang on to their best prospect.
Thomas - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 08:37 AM EST (#227696) #
Look at how hard it is find a good Closer in this off-season.

The still-unsigned Rafael Soriano says hello.

Magpie - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 08:42 AM EST (#227697) #
A big thank you to the Pittsburgh pirates for signing Lyle Overbay, thus eliminating any chance he would return.

As things stand at this moment, this means the team will be replacing a good defensive player who posted a 107+ OPS with a known klutz who had a 92 OPS+.

So, yeah. Let's have a party.
greenfrog - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 08:51 AM EST (#227698) #
Overbay also seemed to find his mojo in the second half, posting an OPS+ of 117. For what it's worth.
mathesond - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 08:55 AM EST (#227699) #
Isn't Domonic Brown the only projected Phillies starter under 30? I really can't see them wanting to move a young talent (who could very well have a better career than Bautista) for Bautista.

As for a closer, I'm all for auditioning in-house - isn't that how guys like Eckersley, Hoffman, and Gagne landed the roles? If for some reason the Jays are 2 games up in the wild card despite leading the league(s) in blown saves (seems counter-intuitive, I know), then a trade is always an option
Ryan C - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 09:09 AM EST (#227700) #
our Bullpen. That's just not good enough.

Except that really, it probably is good enough, and it's likely there will be one or two low-fanfare additions before spring training anyway. I don't know why so some people seem to be so concerned about the bullpen. There must be nothing else to talk about because it's just not that big a deal.
cybercavalier - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 09:40 AM EST (#227704) #
I don't know why so some people seem to be so concerned about the bullpen

The Jays have pitching depth, even after trading Marcum for Lawrie. But having the mentality of moving forward and constantly improving is a good sign of fan support and a growing ML team, IMO.
Ryan C - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 09:47 AM EST (#227705) #
having the mentality of moving forward and constantly improving is a good sign

Of course the mentality of always striving to be better is a good one. But that's not the mentality I was disagreeing with. There's a difference between believing you can always get better, and thinking we *must* make a change because we're nowhere near good enough and the sky is falling and we're all gonna die!
Mike Green - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 09:48 AM EST (#227706) #
I am not cheering Overbay's departure either.  He was a decent hitter and a fine fielder during his time here.  The most frustration I got from him were all the GIDPs. 

Hopefully, Butterfield is able to teach Lind a thing or two during the off-season.  I might add that, if the club was planning to have Lind play first base in 2011, it would have been a good idea to have given him substantial work there in 2009 or 2010.  Chuck made this point a few times, I recall, at the time.

cybercavalier - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 10:07 AM EST (#227707) #
I might add that, if the club was planning to have Lind play first base in 2011, it would have been a good idea to have given him substantial work there in 2009 or 2010.  Chuck made this point a few times, I recall, at the time.

This reminded me of Arencibia who would have gathered substantial work at catching after his callup. At any rate, Lind and Arencibia would need more ML work at their prospective position in 2011. The Jays have Molina and Wakamatsu in place to norture Arenicibia; maybe Lind can gather similar support in a backup defensive minded 1B/DH/OF.
85bluejay - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 10:27 AM EST (#227708) #

I am not cheering Overbay's departure either.

Well , thank god the days of the Jays FO over-appreciating mediocre talent is a distant memory . I say,

Hallelujah to that!

chocolatethunder - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 10:33 AM EST (#227709) #
Great point...had to check B-R and was shocked to see that Howard, Utley and Rollins are all over 30...when does the decline happen, to whom and how do they fill the gaps when they have traded so many of their top prospects....and no offense that trade scenario makes no sense for either party
Magpie - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 10:50 AM EST (#227710) #
if the club was planning to have Lind play first base in 2011, it would have been a good idea to have given him substantial work there in 2009 or 2010.

I'm pretty sure it never struck anyone as something that would be necessary. All last season, the assumption was that Brett Wallace would force his way into the lineup and settle the issue. And then came the trade for Gose, and the organization suddenly looked around and said: "Wait a minute! Our first baseman is bound for free agency, and we have no one in sight who has played more than a dozen professional games at the position. Oops."

Adam Lind wasn't doing anything else of importance, so they gave him a shot. Unfortunately, almost the first thing Lind did at the position was put one of his own pitchers on the Disabled List, which may have created a bit of reluctance to keep sending him out there.
eudaimon - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 11:05 AM EST (#227712) #

Howard is already on the decline. Has a huge contract, is a bad fielder, and only had a .859 overall OPS last year. I remember some site lambasted the trade (probably rotoworld).

In defense of trading Wallace, I think we have a big upper hand in that trade. Wallace didn't really have great stats after ballpark adjustments, and performed terribly in his stint in the ML last season.

If the team truly thinks that Lind can be a solid 1b, then it's worth a shot. It's problematic, though, that he will be trying to rebound at the plate and master a position at the same time. First things first I say... see if the man can still hit first. Personally, I would prefer to sign a stopgap veteran 1b, like Lee, Nady (now signed), Cantu, etc. Maybe Delgado, although his body is likely done at this point. Maybe make a trade, who knows.

 

 

85bluejay - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 11:21 AM EST (#227720) #

Phillies are said to have some of the best high ceiling talent at A ball - so, it's possible some of

that talent will develop and be ready in 2-3 yrs.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 11:44 AM EST (#227726) #
New Post is up.
TamRa - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 03:58 PM EST (#227763) #
Overbay also seemed to find his mojo in the second half, posting an OPS+ of 117. For what it's worth.

It's actually better than that. His slash lines after the break look like this:

.234 / .331 / .455 / .786

Date it back to May 12 and you get this:

.266 / .349 / .476 / .825

But he killed himself with a .182 BA in his last 13 games of the season.

Take that out and the above rates look like this:

.247 / .338 / .489 / .827

.276 / .355 / .495 / .850

That latter was 107 games (May 12-Sept 18) - basically 2/3 of a season - when he was just fine. but the other 1/3 he was so VERY bad.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 04:09 PM EST (#227766) #
I'm pretty sure it never struck anyone as something that would be necessary. All last season, the assumption was that Brett Wallace would force his way into the lineup and settle the issue

Well, either way you slice it, it wasn't one of management's finest moments.  It was pretty obvious after last year that Wallace was not a sure thing (i.e. that he needed to take a step forward with the bat and with the glove to be a good major league first baseman).  And Wallace wasn't around in 2009. 
85bluejay - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 04:25 PM EST (#227768) #

And Wallace wasn't around in 2009.

Yes, but in 2009, the previous regime had drafted David Cooper in 2008 and he was steaming

his way to the show and eventually Cooperstown.

ayjackson - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 06:49 PM EST (#227783) #

and no offense that trade scenario makes no sense for either party

Actually it makes a lot of sense.  Domonic Brown is pretty much all alone in his age group on the Phillies.  They are in win now mode with a team of 30+ veterans.  Their minor leagues are depleted above A ball.  Do they struggle through a few seasons of below average to average play out of Brown when they've invested $140m in winning Campionships? Or do they turn him into an asset that can produce now and perhaps another low minors prospect.  Maybe it's not Bautista.  But maybe its Kemp or Sizemore or somebody else?  If you move Blanton, you can make the move.

ayjackson - Thursday, December 16 2010 @ 06:53 PM EST (#227784) #
Tamra, that's one of the worst examples of arbitrary endpoints I've seen.  You take away anyone's slumping third of the season and they're going to have much better numbers.  Unfortunately, unless your manager's clairvoyant, you can't avoid those slumps.
TamRa - Friday, December 17 2010 @ 02:32 AM EST (#227806) #
I'm not suggesting a manager can avoid those slumps, nor am I suggesting you simply ignore the bad parts.

and while I know not everyone agrees with my use of AEPs, what I look for there is a long stretch of games that make up a reasonable sample.

Starting on X date and going to X date with what lies in between being a third of a season or more is much more telling, IMO, then the oft-repeated and seldom challenged nonsense of "Dude hit great in June" as if the turning of the calendar makes ANY difference.

What would be a very bad use of AEDs if you you said "for two weeks he was hot, then for three weeks he sucked, then for a month he was very good, then for two weeks he went off the table" and etc.

that's not what I did here.

I ask you, in all sincerity, is it better to say "From Mid-May to Mid-September, over 100+ games, he hit well" or is it better to say "He hit better in the second half"?

Because remarks like the latter NEVER get challeneged as being an AED but it is just as much arbitrary to seperate stats by month, or by pre- and post-ASB as what i did.


bpoz - Friday, December 17 2010 @ 09:46 AM EST (#227811) #
Good point TamRa...breaking up the season differently... mid May to mid June. Others I have heard "as the weather heats up so do the hitters", "dog days of August", "notorious slow starter" also I noticed that teams play each other in clusters eg Tex by mid May 6 gm played then 4 in Sept, CWS 2 4 gm series finished by mid May and I cannot find the other 2 gms. I don't want to jump to conclusions but did we play CWS only 8 times in 2010? If so then the schedule is further unbalanced.

This dada, I mean data is then inconsistent for team,hitter & pitcher comparisons...as well as park effects, injuries, used up pen in previous series.
Still data has to be studied and different approaches can prove different conclusions possibly IMO.
ayjackson - Friday, December 17 2010 @ 12:21 PM EST (#227817) #

Breaking up the season is of little use unless there's an injury (for example) to consider.  What a player does over an entire season is what's relevant.  Over an entire season, there will be slumps, and these should be considered in evaluating what contribution said player might make in a future season.

Powder Blues - Friday, December 17 2010 @ 06:12 PM EST (#227837) #
The number and depth of slumps does matter, imo.
Cliff and Doc... Together at Last | 155 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.