Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - White Sox 10

'Cause when love is gone, there's always justice.
And when justice is gone, there's always force.
And when force is gone, there's always Mom.

Hi Mom!

Yesterday's game was a depressing affair. Well, there were some bright spots. Russ Adams hit two homeruns. Walker, Chulk, and Schoeneweis were terrific in relief. But other than that, it's a game I'd like to altogether forget about. If you really want to learn more about yesterday's game, see what Spencer Fordin has to say about.

Instead I'd like to talk about a subject that came up during the game chat. Specifically: "Which Jays are likely to go to the All-Star game?" I thought about it last night, here are my views on the odds on each of the Jays going to the All-Star game this year:

Ken Huckaby           1000:1
Matt Whiteside        1000:1
John McDonald          500:1
Frank Menechino        500:1
Pete Walker            500:1
Justin Speier          500:1
Vinnie Chulk           100:1
Jason Frasor           100:1
Scott Schoeneweis      100:1
Dave Bush               80:1
Ted Lilly               80:1
Russ Adams              80:1
Frank Catalanotto       80:1
Reed Johnson            80:1
Alex Rios               80:1
Vernon Wells            80:1
Corey Koskie            30:1
Gregg Zaun              20:1
Josh Towers             10:1
Gustavo Chacin          10:1
Eric Hinske              6:1
Orlando Hudson           4:1
Shea Hillenbrand         4:1
Miguel Batista           3:1
Roy Halladay             1:1

(Note: I mean going to it as a player. They could always buy a ticket like every other fan)

I hope these odds I've created generate some discussion. Here's a few notes on why I put players where I did.

Miguel Batista: There's a good chance he'll rack up gaudy save totals and be selected solely on the basis of that. The way some managers/fans choose teams, they ought to change the name to The All-Stat Team.

Shea Hillenbrand: If he's hitting .350 around the All-Star break, I think you'd have to find a spot for him somewhere. There seems to be a decent enough chance of that happening.

Orlando Hudson: The crop of AL 2nd basemen is really weak (except for Brian Roberts) and O-Dog has a magnificent glove. I'm probably underrating him here. He should have a better chance of going than Shea.

Eric Hinske: I'm probably overrating him.

Josh Towers and Gustavo Chacin: Can they put up these numbers for another month or two? Plus there's always the "Who?!?" factor that has prevented the game from totally becoming of the All-Stat variety.

Gregg Zaun: I know a lot of people here are campaigning here for him. But with Varitek aand Lopez putting up better numbers and Posada a lot more famous, he'd probably be the fourth pick out of the AL East alone. I can't see him getting taken, but there have been stranger choices at catcher.

Corey Koskie: Hasn't gotten off to a spectacular start, but could always get hot. I doubt they'll take him, though. Mora and A-Rod already have two spots locked up at third.

The Outfielders: Wells probably doesn't have enough time to bounce back from his awful start and the rest don't hit for the power you'd want from a corner outfielder.

Those are my thoughts. What are yours?

Posted by Pepper Moffatt on Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 09:00 AM EDT.

White Sox 10 - Blue Jays 7 | 12 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Paul D - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#116007) #

I actually think you might be overating O-Dog.
If your odds were "What are the odds that these players have All-Star level performance" then perhaps you're underestimating him.

But in terms of being selected, O-Dog doesn't seem to get the recognition from the commom fan out there. If you go to any Red Sox fan board, they'll all talk about how Bellhorn is light years ahead of any other second basemen (well, that was last year, this year I suspect they'd have to give Roberts some credit).

Plus, you've got the defending gold glove champion out there too....

I'd love to see Chacin make it...

Coach - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#116008) #

The voters make some strange choices, based on reputations that can be years out of date. At 2B they will recognize the names Boone and Soriano, so the deserving starter (Roberts) may not get elected, which would diminish the O-Dog's chances of being invited.

Then there's the mandatory team selections to consider. Mike Sweeney would seem to be a lock unless Greinke tosses a bunch of consecutive shutouts. If Crawford represents the Rays and Hafner the Indians, too bad for Hillenbrand, but there might be a spot for a second Jays pitcher. While that could be Batista, if Chacin was to earn another Rookie of the Month award in either May or June, it would be hard to ignore him.

Finally, the manager tends to reward one or two of his own players. Don't be surprised if Manny, Papi, Tek, Damon and Clement all make it one way or another. Halladay is odds-on, of course. Not sure I'd take less than 10-1 on any other Jay.

Happy Mother's Day to everyone's mom, especially mine (a huge Jays fan despite her tiny stature) and the lovely Mrs. Coach, who brilliantly parents four mature teens and 20-somethings, plus one middle-aged infant.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#116009) #

stranger choices at catcher.

Wow, no kidding ... I expected that link to go to Greg Myers, a 1990 All-Star, also with Atlanta. Then I thought, "well, those Braves teams sucked, maybe they didn't have anyone else to go as a representative." Their roster shows names like Jeff Burroughs, Gary Matthews Sr., Bob Horner, Dale Murphy and Phil Niekro, so there was some talent there. (Oh, and the manager was a fellow named Cox on his first run with the Braves.)

It never would've happened, but it would have been genius for NL All-Star manager Tommy LaSorda to select former A.L. All-Star Jim Bouton from those '78 Braves.

The NL catching brigade that year included guys named Bench, Boone, Carter and Simmons, so I'm not thinking the Senior Circuit fans were crying out for a Pocoroba-fest, either.

Mick Doherty - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#116010) #

Sorry, thae above should say "Greg Olson," not "Greg Myers." Too many Greg-Catchers (the original working title of "Too Many Molinas") have flummoxed me.

Pistol - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#116011) #

I also think you're overating Hudson. He has a .651 OPS right now (9th in the AL). He'd have to get past one of Soriano or Roberts, and right now he's way behind Iguchi as well.

There's too many good DH/1B for Hinske or Hillenbrand to make it (and Hinske's YTD numbers aren't all that hot now anyway).

Towers has surprised so far, but he's only 20th in ERA right now.

Chacin has been great so far, but his numbers don't suggest that he'll keep it up.

Batista has an outside chance to make it, but there'd probably have to be 4 relievers taken, and even then he'd be on the fringe.

Halladay is the best pitcher on the team and has the reputation as a great player. I suspect that he'll be the one and only Jay on the team.

uglyone - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#116012) #

<i><b>Miguel Batista:</b> There's a good chance he'll rack up gaudy save totals and be selected solely on the basis of that. The way some managers/fans choose teams, they ought to change the name to The All-Stat Team.</i>

And that weird stat they call ERA.

Original Ryan - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#116016) #

I can't see him getting taken, but there have been stranger choices at catcher.

Anything is possible. Joe Girardi made the 2000 All-Star team simply by being at home when Bobby Cox was calling around for an extra catcher.

Magpie - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#116018) #

And of course Alfredo Griffin got into an All-Star Game by showing up as Damaso Garcia's guest.

How Pocoroba became the 4th catcher in the 1978 Game (because Bench, Simmons, and Boone - but not Carter - were also All Stars that year) is not a story I know. But I'd bet there were injuries involved. I'll bet they include one of the three catchers named above, and whoever Lasorda originally picked to represent the Braves. I'd go check if any other Braves were named as All Stars in 1978... but I don't have time!

King Ryan - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#116020) #

And that weird stat they call ERA

Are you trying to imply that ERA is not a weird stat?

Frankly, I prefer All-star teams based on reputations over ones based on hot starts. To me, it's the all-star team, not the all-start team. It should be made up of players that are proven stars, not players that have gotten off to good starts after mediocre careers. So, as much as I like the guy, I won't be voting for Gregg Zaun.

That said, I think Halladay, Chacin, Hillenbrand and Batista all have a decent chance of making it. I doubt all four will, of course.

Gitz - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#116032) #

Well, I understand that Soriano is a "name." He's also a "name" who happens to have 10 home runs. If he sustains a pace of being the old, hacktastic-but-productive Soriano, I'll take him over Hudson.

Mike Green - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#116052) #

I'd have Koskie at lower odds. He's quite capable of running off a nice streak for the next couple of months, and entering the break at .290 and 18-20 homers. If he does that, he probably makes the All-Star team, as he is a veteran name.

uglyone - Sunday, May 08 2005 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#116075) #

Are you trying to imply that ERA is not a weird stat?

a) yes

b) we could also talk about opponent's OPS or whip.

White Sox 10 - Blue Jays 7 | 12 comments | Create New Account

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