Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Doc's Out For The Summer

Maybe not the entire summer, but certainly the rest of July and perhaps most of August. The wire story has the vital information from GM J.P. Ricciardi:

For a month we're going to have to suck it up. We played without him last year. It's not a comforting situation to be in, not having him.

And our Game Report thread has the vital reaction from Dave Till:

(string of expletives)
...
(another string of expletives)

Does anyone else realize that in the Jays' commercial featuring The Lineup, all three players are now injured?

Posted by Rob on Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:35 PM EDT.

Doc's Out For The Summer | 71 comments | Create New Account

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uglyone - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#122028) #

why most of august?

Rob - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#122030) #

Oh please...if it's exactly a month from the date of the injury, then he's back August 8th. All you need for "most" to be the appropriate word there is another eight days. And no glass can be that half-full.

groove - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#122031) #

TSN turning point. brought to you by Apple Auto Glass. "We can repair your windshield, but unforutnately we can't repair your broken dreams."

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#122032) #

Actually, if you toss in the rehab assignment that will almost certainly be the first thing on the agenda when he is ready to pitch again...

Flex - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#122033) #

A month would keep Doc out for about six starts until mid-August, wouldn't it? Presuming all's well and he doesn't need much readjustment time, I think he should come back with about ten starts remaining, which might be enough to get him to 20 wins.

Fawaz - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#122034) #

Calling it breaking news is a cruel joke...

God hates the Jays.

PeterG - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#122035) #

I would think this will make it easier for JP to be a seller at the deadline. I believe this is his inclination anyway, but now it will be less unpoular. Of course, he may buy as well if the right situation presents itself. I predict that Cat, Batista and Hillenbrand will be moved for younger players, not necessarily prospects but possibly prospects at the AAA level eg: Kelly Shoppach. I think it is likely, but not a slam dunk, that Hudson will also be dealt. In this case, he may be part of a "buy", packaging him with a good prospect of our own for a young and about to become more expensive major league player. I think that he will hold on to Ted Lilly unless someone is willing to substantially overpay for his services.

He may not move Cat if he trades Shea, sliding Cat into DH. Whatever the moves, a spot has to be cleared for Gross unless, of course, Gross is packaged in a trade. To conclude, I don't think that all these named will be moved as one move may preclude another but I suggest that at least 3 of the above mentioned possibilities will come to pass.

Flex - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#122036) #

I know it feels like God is against the Jays, but God is really busy working on that 3000-piece puzzle he got a few weeks ago and hasn't really thought about the Jays, or baseball, in quite a while. Just thought I'd let you know, to try and nip this "it must be personal" stuff in the bud.

The question now is does JP succumb to the pressure to put Batista back in the rotation? Or make a trade he'll later regret?

BrockLanders - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#122037) #

Theodore Lilly must rise to the occasion. God knows he can pitch like a #1 so hopefully he buckles down and takes a cue from Doc.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#122038) #

I know it feels like God is against the Jays

I know that. I know she doesn't hate the Jays.

But as for the Cubs...

Paul D - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#122039) #

It's time for the Blue Jays to really put the Ewing theory to the test.

I say keep Batista in the bullpen. They've got to find out who they have in AAA that can start, may as well start now.

Flex - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#122040) #

I am unfamiliar with the Ewing theory, Paul. Please explain.

jvictor - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#122041) #

Who are they bringing up? Is the silence due to a trade in the making?

Wildrose - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#122042) #

Tough news, but realistically this is (was?) an 80-85 win team, that would be close, but in all probability would not win its division.

The team is still in a building mode,with the financial resources and a farm system in place to be competetive in 2007. I think any move made should be to that end. For instance Ted Lilly. His contract is up after 2006. Do you sign him to an extension or do you move him now for someone who can help you when the team should be at its nadir?

Paul D - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#122043) #

I am unfamiliar with the Ewing theory, Paul. Please explain.

It's a Bill Simmons theory.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/010509a

Although, now that I read it again, I think it may be more applicable to the post Delgado Jays than the Halladay-less Jays.

Pistol - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#122045) #

Is the silence due to a trade in the making?

The Jays have a game tonight and a game tomorrow night, so unless you think someone's going to make an impact in tomorrow's game there's no rush to do anything.

Of course after last night, and with Downs starting tonight, the bullpen might need another arm.

uglyone - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#122046) #

whoa! I was just asking a question.

"most of august" would bring the injury closer to 2 months than 1 month, and I was wondering if you knew something i didn't, perhaps about the typical recovery time on this kind of injury, that's all.

didn't mean to offend you.

Rob - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#122049) #

didn't mean to offend you.

I sounded rather snarky there, didn't I? Sorry about that. It's the heat.

Oh, and there's another reason you may have heard about...Roy Halladay is injured. :)

Mike D - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#122050) #

I would think this will make it easier for JP to be a seller at the deadline

PeterG, there's no impetus whatsoever for JP to sell for the sake of selling. He's got bags of cash and a reasonably-priced roster. There are no fiscal pressures to do a Mondesi-Wiggins deal, and no locker room cancer that we know of that needs to be jettisoned.

Obviously, if you can get a truly outstanding prospect for a player that isn't part of your long-term plans, you do the deal. But valuable, affordable and likeable talent for Kelly Shoppach?!? The same Kelly Shoppach that finds AAA breaking pitches really, really tricky to hit?

I have to confess that I don't understand why there's so much clamouring to give away the moon for Shoppach. He's already 25, and the Red Sox think so "highly" of him that they organizationally blocked him for years with the Varitek signing (not to mention re-signing Mirabelli).

The Jays are at the point where they should be trying to acquire excellent players...not marginally useful talent that is nowhere near good enough to play for our rivals. Shoppach? Let the Rockies have him.

BrockLanders - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#122051) #

Isn't Quiroz considered a better player than Shoppach?

Jim - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#122053) #

Quiroz has not shown that he can stay healthy for even part of a season. Even if things work out for Quiroz, they still could use another catcher. I wouldn't give away much for Shoppach, but there is an obvious dire need for catching help in the organization.

BrockLanders - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#122054) #

And isn't Curtis Thigpen at least 2 years away?

Matthew E - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#122057) #

I never thought the Jays had much of a shot this year anyway. Despite the competition. As far as I'm concerned, 2005 is about:

a) recovering from 2004, and
b) preparing for 2006 and 2007

We found out pretty quickly this year that Halladay was still Halladay, and therefore not a problem to be solved. Now that we know that - and a leg injury doesn't change it - we don't actually need to see it for the rest of the year, much as we'd like to.

What the Jays need to do now is use the starts Halladay will be missing to sort out their up-and-coming starting pitchers for next year.

Keith Talent - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#122058) #

A broken bone? Wow, a month sounds really optimistic then. Guys I know who have had broken bones in their legs have been hobbling for 6 - 12 months. That's brutal.

They'll have to call up Dave Bush and he's going to have to answer the call. I know it's asking a lot, but if he can go and win 70% of his starts the rest of the way, we don't really lose that much with Halladay going down.

It's like with Koskie's injury. Sure the team misses him, but Aaron Hill wouldn't have been called up if Koskie didn't go down, and I would say Hill's results have probably been better than what Koskie's may have been (less HRs though).

Keep in mind, you don't really lose the entire player, you only lose what he contributes on top of the guy who's replacing him. So lets hope whoever is inserted can step up. Bush, after being sent down, could be rightly challenged.

Craig B - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#122061) #

I never thought the Jays had much of a shot this year anyway.

Have you seen the caliber of opposition in this division? The Yankees are hitting again, but the three teams we're competing against have TERRIBLE pitching. This was a big chance, and while it's not done yet, it's a lot tougher now.

danjulien - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#122062) #

FYI guys...Bush is not the call up
Gross has been sent down and Doc DLed...
The callups...Justin Miller(look at his stats!)...and Brandon League(look at his stats? although he's bounced back a bit)

Justin (T-Birds) - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#122064) #

Bush pitched yesterday, so he'd be a pointless call-up at this point. Miller and League can both settle into the bullpen for today (?) and tomorrow, and then Bush will likely come up after the ASG.

Andrew K - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:33 PM EDT (#122065) #

Did someone have to go off the 40 man roster to get Miller on, or did we have a spare spot?

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#122067) #

It's very possible that this is a short-term move. The team needs relief pitchers, and they need 'em today and tomorrow. Then there's three off days to rethink the situation.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#122068) #

A broken bone? Wow, a month sounds really optimistic then.

It's being described as a "non-displacement fracture" - I could be wrong, but I think that's more like a crack than an actual break. Doctors? Help us out.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#122071) #

Did someone have to go off the 40 man roster to get Miller on, or did we have a spare spot?

The Jays web-site lists 39 guys. As usual, it hasn't been updated. But it's the 25 guys who were active yesterday, plus Koskie on the DL, plus 13 guys now in the minors: Quiroz, Tablado, Hattig, Griffin, Negron, Arnold, Bush, Gaudin, League, McGowan, Perkins, Ramirez, Rosario.

uglyone - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#122072) #

Quote from Halladay: "It's the best kind of fracture you can have, I guess."

CaramonLS - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#122073) #

I think we all underestimate Zaun who has been one of the most productive Catchers.

Thigpen wont be ready for at least another 2 years. Zaun is signed next year (I think his option is if he plays more than 70 games which he will, he gets auto-resigned).

Keith Talent - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#122076) #

Agreed on Zaun, but there's a lot of prejudice to get through on him. Him being a second/third-string catcher for so many years, his age. If he was 28 and having the exact same year we'd all be over the moon on him.

Mike Green - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#122077) #

All right. Here's a piece on ankle fractures to give a feel. I wasn't aware that formerly nondisplaced fractures can become displaced, although that explains why follow-up X-rays are routine. Warning: it's a 1996 piece, so rehab times might be down slightly.

Mike Green - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#122078) #

Everyone agrees that Zaun is a fine catcher. He's good for 130 games a season. It's the other 30-35 that people are talking about.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#122082) #

I thought I remembered another star pitcher who suffered a similar injury from a line drive. On July 15 1967, Roberto Clemente ripped a line drive off Bob Gibson's leg. Gibson being Gibson, he pitched to another three batters despite the broken leg. He returned to action September 7. And the Cardinals won the pennant, and Gibson pitched 3 CG wins in the World Series.

And he came back the next season, pitched his team into the World Series again, and won the Cy Young and the MVP.

jmoney - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#122083) #

Ewww. This is not good. I do agree with the sentiment that I believe this makes it easier for J.P. to be a seller. I don't think he ever thought the team could contend this year and the Jays are only in it with the putrid play of the Yanks and the slow start from the Sox.

Then again I think the opportunity to go after Burnett could further cement it in the minds of the casual Toronto fan, and media that he is committed to winning this year and with a contract extension to Burnett the committment is there for future years.

Then again maybe Florida raises its price...

uglyone - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#122084) #

Did they have hyperbaric chambers in 1967?

CeeBee - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#122088) #

We should all be thankful that if was only a non-displaced fracture in the leg. Imagine if it had hit him in the face? I can live with a month or 3 in this case. Less than 60' and a smoking line drive has to be a pitchers worst nightmare.

westcoast dude - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#122089) #

As everyone who has seen Total Recall knows, the Toronto Blue Jays are God's team. So who is going to kick God's team? Satan, he's been really stirring the pot lately.

Magpie - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#122090) #

Doc on the radio NOW

Jim - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#122091) #

Zaun has been great for the past 1.5 years. Let's not go crazy though. His career high is 107 games (last year) and he's 34 years old.

They need to find long term solutions to the position. Even if they were to get another 1.5 good years out of Zaun they still don't have a viable backup, nevermind any depth if Zaun were to be injured or start playing like most 35 year old catchers do.

They don't need to bring in the next Joe Mauer, but a player similar to Ryan Garko would be nice. The Indians seem to have their catching position settled for at least the next 4 years or so and by July 31st the standings might look much different. If the Jays falter and find themselves 6-8 back in the Wild Card, would Lilly bring back Garko and a secondary prospect?

Named For Hank - Saturday, July 09 2005 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#122102) #

I believe this is his inclination anyway, but now it will be less unpoular.

I have seen nothing that leads me to believe that J.P. is inclined to sell; quite the opposite, in fact. What have you seen that makes you think he's bailing on this year?

PeterG - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#122107) #

I don't think it's as much bailing out on this year as being willing to trade parts he doesn't want or need going forward.
Hudson can be replaced by Hill and is no doubt available. Wilner on the fan pretty much confirmed the fact that Orlando is being shopped.

One or both of Hillenbrand or Cat can go as their presence is blocking Gabe Gross.

Batista might be a luxury that a playoff bound team would have more use for than the Jays. There are other guys to pick up the slack in the pen and a number of almost ready prospects. I would deal him if the price is right.

I don't think being a seller in a couple of instances means you are giving up on the year, just recognizing that selling in these cases is the most appropriate thing to do.

I think he would also trade prospects for proven young players with 2-3 years before FA strikes. I would not trade for Burnett(even if he could help now) as I think TO has as good as chance as anyone of signing him as a FA in the off season.

Named For Hank - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#122112) #

Right -- but what have you seen that leads you to believe that he wanted to be a seller anyways? The stuff about Burnett ("Don't do anything without calling me") makes me think the precise opposite -- sure, maybe he's shopping players, but to make trades to strengthen the team, not to clear payroll or get more AAA depth.

Like I said, what I've heard, seen and read leads me to the opposite conclusion -- so what are you seeing that's different from what I'm seeing?

PeterG - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 01:07 AM EDT (#122120) #

I'm not seeing things that differently. Maybe it's just in the interpretation of the term "seller". The press assumes that if you trade off veterans for younger players or prospects that are close, you are classified as a seller. I think JP is inclined to do this in some instances. The press will refer to this as selling, since there seems to be no in between- you buy, you sell. He will do both.

I agree he is not interested in acquiring prospects unless they are major league ready. A deal that might be fair for each team might be Batista for Shoppach. Now, if this were to happen, it will be described in the press as selling when in fact it is simply a move to trade a vet from a position of strength in order to acquire a younger player in a position of weakness. From the other side, it will be said that Boston is buying in that they are looking to a quick fix for their bullpen. So when I suggest JP is inclined to be a seller, I am only suggesting he is willing to make this type of deal and might do the same with Cat, Shea or Hudson. In each instance, he may bring back a younger player who is more useful by next year to the Jays but it will still be interpreted as selling.
I don't think we really see things differently in terms of what JP should or may do but we do seem to have a differing view of what constitutes selling. Also, I don't think this inclination in any way means he is giving upn the season. I think he will try hard to keep the team competitive but the types of moves described are the type of moves I think he will make for the betterment of the team going forward. It may end up hurting the team this year if some of the replacements(Gross,Frasor,Speier,HIll) for the traded players don't finish well but it is a calculated risk that will likely be taken. I wouldn't call it throwing in the towel but making the best of the situation. TO has players some other teams may want and some of these players seem quite replaceable. I think this is the inclination I spoke of. It's not necessarily selling but it will likely be viewed that way by the media.

brent - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 02:45 AM EDT (#122123) #

What JP is going to do is look at how many more runs he needs scored or not scored against. He will then determine which is more easily available to remedy and at the best cost. Then he will make the deals that work. Don't forget about the "legs of the deal" that is so often highlighted. Hopefully, he will also be able to measure who has higher clutch/ situational abilities. Go to it JP, make us a winner and make us proud.

Gabriel - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#122140) #

Quite frankly, I don't like what J.P. is doing at all right now. The Jays are not a real contender and I can't see them contending next year or the year after that. Trading prospects is about the stupidest things J.P. could do right now. The Jays really don't even have the cornerstones of a winning team yet. They have Halladay and Wells and MAYBE Rios and Hill will get to that level, but teams with Greg Zaun, Reed Johnson, Orlando Hudson, Russ Adams, and Eric Hinske in the everyday lineup do not win even if they get A.J. Burnett (who is vastly overrated anyway. He has never won more than 12 games in a year, is injury prone, will be 29 at the end of the year and has pitched his entire career in one of the best pitcher's park in baseball). I just really dislike what the Jays have done with J.P. Instead of rebuilding, they have given away prospects (Izturis, Phelps, Werth, Lopez) for nothing and tried to replace them with crappy and mediocre veterans. (Chris Woodward, Reed Johnson). They have overpayed horribly for crappy relievers (Lightenberg, Schowenweiss, Koch) and I have a feeling it's going to get a lot worse. I hope not, but the Jays seriously need to get a some new guys who can be at the core of a winning team in 3 to 4 years.

TamRa - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#122157) #

Regarding Bush, we don't need a 5th starter until July 23, so Bush can get 2 more starts in the minors (depending on when their break is) and be right on turn on the 23rd. We won't HAVE to have a 5th again until the 30th. It is possible, given the flux in the trade scene, that JP MIGHT want to stopgap that start on the 23rd to buy more time but I wouldn't recommend it after the Downs experiment last night.

So what this tells us is that we are right where we were Friday morning - waiting two to three weeks for the market to shake down and the team to signal JP that they are ready to step it up. The easiest 10 game stretch in our schedule comes up right after the break. If the Jays don't win at least 7 of those games - and really winning all of them isn't impossible - then there's no reason for JP to believe he has a real contender here.

But if they do win 9 or 10 of those games they could own a share of first place by July 25th and that would indeed seemingly force JP's hand on acquiring talent.

Plus, by the last week of the month he'll have a much better understanding of whether Doc will mount a quick comeback or be out for an extended period.

28 days from the fracture, the turn that would normally belong to Doc comes up in a home game against the Yankees. From there on out the loss becomes much more critical.

Named For Hank - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#122158) #

What an odd comment from Gabriel -- Woodward and Johnson were veterans brought in by J.P.? Koch was overpaid for by J.P.? Schoeneweis is crappy? Ligtenberg certainly under-performed, but surely you're not saying that the Jays should have been able to predict that he'd fall victim to a debilitating hip problem.

Hudson is a liability? Phelps was a prospect when he was traded away? Aquilino Lopez, is he even on anyone's radar now?

Gabriel, I can only figure that you're venting and have absolutely no idea of what you're talking about.

garth - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#122161) #

i think he meant felipe lopez. which in hindsight was a terrible trade.

Named For Hank - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#122168) #

Well, if so then he's 1-for. How about the rest?

Gabriel - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#122184) #

Koch wasn't overpayed by J.P? he was given a 1 year guaranteed 1 million dollar contract. No one else would have given him a major league contract. Schowenweiss is crappy. 2 years and 5.2 million for a guy with his track record is just stupid. The Sox offered him 1 year 1.725 million. I never said Hudsonw as a liability, but he's not a good hitter and you need good hitters if you want to win. If your lineup is stacked, Hudson is fine. I am venting, but only because I thought J.P. had a good plan, but he's been absolutely horrid but still managed to fool people into believing he's doing well. If you look at his track record with the Jays, he has been bad. His trades never work out, His best move was Hinske for Koch, but even that turned out poorly because of the contract burden Hinske is.

Have a look

Trades

Izturis and Quantrill for Prokopec- Horrible. Izturis is a very good shortstop and Quantrill had 2 fabulous years as a reliever. Luke did nothing at all.

Jason Werth for Jason Frasor-Bad. Werth is pretty clearly a major league hitter with power and Frasor is a mediocre replacable middle reliever.

Felipe Lopez for (PTL) Jason Arnold- Yet to see how Arnold looks, but he has a 4.35 ERA as a reliever in AAA and Felipe Lopez is the best hitting shortstop in the national league.

Billy Koch for Justin Miller and Eric Hinske-Fabulous for a year. Now, they'd give away Hinske to anyone who would take him.

Josh Phelps for Eric Crozier- Phelps is in the minors, but he's still better than Crozier.

Kevin Cash for Chad Gaudin-a nothing deal

Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty-Bad trade even though they had to trade Stewart.

Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty- A good trade even though it was a salary dump for Oakland.

Adam Peterson for Shea Hillenbrand- A straight salary dump.

Mark Hendrickson for Justin Spier- Nothing trade.

I am sure there are more, but this is very, very unimpressive. Even if you disagree with the individual trades, I doubt you will find anyone sane who thinks this a good track record. He traded away a lot of talent for virtually nothing and only obtained major league talent when teams were looking to dump salary. These were poor, not only because they turned out poorly, but because many of them looked bad at the time. You have two very promising young shortstops so you give them away so you can play Chris Woodward at SS? And don't talk down to me because I disagree with you. "I have no idea what I am talking about?"

What are the Jays plans now? How are they going compete next year with the roster they have. Even if they went out and somewhow obtained Albert Pujols, they wouldn't win. The way it lines up now, the Jays will be subpar at almost every position next year. Zaun might be an average catcher next year, but based on his history, that's pretty unlikely. Hinske will still be horrible for first base. Hudson is below average for 2B. Adams is below average for SS. Koskie might be above average at 3B if he's not hurt. Wells is way above average in centre but the corner OFers and DH will most likely be below average as well. This is simply not the core of a contending team. It's not even close.

Jonny German - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#122185) #

If you're making a list, Gabriel, you can add me as another person thinks you don't know what you're talking about. Not that it matters... I'm sure you'll be back on the bandwagon when the Jays contend both of the next two years with JP still in office...

Mick Doherty - Sunday, July 10 2005 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#122187) #

Ii disagree with almost everything you concluded, Gabriel, though I respect your right to say it. (Though some of your premises are correct, the conclusion you reach is tenuous if not spurious.) And frankly, you lost me at "Hudson is below average for 2B." Outside of Robbie ALomar, arguably one of the top five 2B of all time, Hudson -- and I'm not as big a fan as many others here -- is almost without question the best 2B in the history of the franchise and almost certainly one of the top five in the game today. You undercut the entire rest of your argument with throwaway statements like "Hudson is below average for 2B."

VBF - Monday, July 11 2005 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#122191) #

Izturis and Quantrill for Prokopec- Horrible. Izturis is a very good shortstop and Quantrill had 2 fabulous years as a reliever. Luke did nothing at all.
Jason Werth for Jason Frasor-Bad. Werth is pretty clearly a major league hitter with power and Frasor is a mediocre replacable middle reliever.
Felipe Lopez for (PTL) Jason Arnold- Yet to see how Arnold looks, but he has a 4.35 ERA as a reliever in AAA and Felipe Lopez is the best hitting shortstop in the national league.
Billy Koch for Justin Miller and Eric Hinske-Fabulous for a year. Now, they'd give away Hinske to anyone who would take him.
Josh Phelps for Eric Crozier- Phelps is in the minors, but he's still better than Crozier.
Kevin Cash for Chad Gaudin-a nothing deal
Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty-Bad trade even though they had to trade Stewart.
Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty- A good trade even though it was a salary dump for Oakland.
Adam Peterson for Shea Hillenbrand- A straight salary dump.

Mark Hendrickson for Justin Spier- Nothing trade.

Put me third on that list.

Okay, let's take it from the top.

1) Izturis--You want to talk about overrated? This 'all-star' is ranked 8th among shortstops in OPS in the NL.

2) Jason Werth is a good player. We have a pretty good outfield. What we did there was trade a position of strength for a position of weakness. We had a pretty bad bullpen. Jason Frasor in his two years here has more or less been a mainstay. He's our setup man and has done nothing to prove to anyone that he can't. He has been very effective.

4) Felipe Lopez hits well, but hindsight is 20/20. Even JP's biggest critics will say he's good at analyzing talent. This one slipped by. However, there's two sides to everything. Who knows where Arnold might be pending the injury. And didn't we also get JFG in that trade as well?

5) A trade is one thing. Signing a player is another. The trade was very good. If you want to criticize anything, criticize the contract. And even with criticizing the contract, if you were J.P, how could you *not* sign your Rookie of the Year long-term?

6) What's the point? Josh Phelps will never be someone and neither will Crozier. It's a wash. At least Crozier made a fantastic catch. :)

7) Cash for Gaudin a nothing deal? Whaaa? We have yet to determine Gaudin's future, but JP turned a hopeless situation and gave it some hope. Kevin Cash will never be a very good ML ballplayer. At least there's hope Gaudin might be. This is a win for JP for sure.

8) And who were the guys the Capitals traded for Jagr? The Jays weren't going to re-sign Stewart long-term. We got something for him. You can't say it was a bad trade, since the second part hadn't been completed.

9) Aren't you making a case against JP? I'd trade Bobby Kielty's career for one year of a 2004 Ted Lilly, and who knows, he's pitched well enough so far to consider this trade a very good win for JP.

10) Where's Adam Peterson now? Shea Hillenbrand has been an *excellent* stop gap until we find our bat. I would always do this trade if ti came again. How is this something against JP?

11) Justin Speier has been good in the bullpen when we've needed him.

VBF - Monday, July 11 2005 @ 12:43 AM EDT (#122192) #

Essentially when General Manager J.P. Riccardi came into the Jays office he had to do this.

1) Bring down the payroll
2) Number One, and still remainging competitive
3) Re-stock the farm system
4) Through #3, draft players who could be up relatively quickly.
5) These players would become the core of the team

Now we know....

6) Given more money, JP will go and fill in spots that cant be filled in enough time.

******************

JP did number one with flying colours. Payroll was down just as it was mandated, and the Jays escaped without damaging their fan base all too much. He kept a competitive team on the field, and heck, they even made a run for it in 2003.

Number 3 was done well also. We don't have the best farm system, but we do have minor leaguers ready to step in and fill a role. Aaron Hill is obviously the poster boy for this. The farm system is still good, and JP's drafting philosophy has been successful, even with somewhat of a small sample size.

Now we have a core of young players bursting with potential (And I do realize potential is a word often misused). Even the stars are relatively young. Our future is going to have Russ Adams, Aaron Hill, Alex Rios, Vernon Wells, Roy Halladay, Gustavo Chacin, David Bush, Corey Koskie, and posisbly even Orlando Hudson, as it all stands right now. It's extraordinarily unfair to call Russ Adams below average. Wasn't Cesar Izturis below average at one point? Our core looks damn good right now and the proof is the good (if not great) numbers they have all put up. Pick any one player and they've all put up very good, if not respectable numbers in their short careers so far.

The core of players is just fine. There's is nothing wrong with it.

The question now is JP's ability to execute number six. He has the money, now he has to go and make the moves. It's not going to happen today, and it may not happen tomorrow, but he is exploring every single possibility out there right now. Just because Bob Elliott hasn't made up a rumour from his good friend Jack .D., nevermind, let's call him J. Daniels, doesn't mean nothing's going on.

This year is a gearing up year, we're beyong rebuilding, but we're not quite contending. We have shown that we are close.

And by the way, you would'nt have posted this rant had the Jays not been swept by Texas.

Named For Hank - Monday, July 11 2005 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#122199) #

And here I am to pile on. What a short-sighted, know-nothing list you've posted, Gabriel.

Izturis and Quantrill for Prokopec- Horrible. Izturis is a very good shortstop and Quantrill had 2 fabulous years as a reliever. Luke did nothing at all.

Maybe I'll give you that one, but how many years of "very good shortstop" have we seen from Izturis?

Jason Werth for Jason Frasor-Bad. Werth is pretty clearly a major league hitter with power and Frasor is a mediocre replacable middle reliever.

If he's so obviously and easily replaceable, name me five guys who can be had today for the same or less money who are as good and who are available for less than Werth. Is Werth the guy with the best-looking future between himself, Rios, Gross and Vernon Wells? If not, then where the hell do you plan to play him on the Jays?

Felipe Lopez for (PTL) Jason Arnold- Yet to see how Arnold looks, but he has a 4.35 ERA as a reliever in AAA and Felipe Lopez is the best hitting shortstop in the national league.

Like I said before, you can have this one.

Billy Koch for Justin Miller and Eric Hinske-Fabulous for a year. Now, they'd give away Hinske to anyone who would take him.

And Billy Koch is so good that...what? How many good years did Koch have after the trade? Any? And your critique of spending $980,000 on Koch to see if he had anything left is silly -- it's a drop in the bucket of the expanded salary. Would you prefer that the money was not spent? What if Koch turned out to have something left? Would you be crying "He was available for nothing and the Jays were dumb not to go after him"?

Josh Phelps for Eric Crozier- Phelps is in the minors, but he's still better than Crozier.

This is the dumbest one by far. Phelps was placed on waivers as part of a different attempted deal. Cleveland claimed him. Is your position that the Jays should have kept Phelps on the 25 man to this day? Who'd you demote or cut from the team or not sign under this foolish plan? Or do you think it would have been better for the Jays to let Cleveland take him and get nothing in return? Both of these options are impossible for the team; taking Crozier was making the best of a bad situation.

Kevin Cash for Chad Gaudin-a nothing deal

What are you using to project that Gaudin will never be a major league player?

Shannon Stewart for Bobby Kielty-Bad trade even though they had to trade Stewart.

Ted Lilly for Bobby Kielty- A good trade even though it was a salary dump for Oakland.

It's not like these are two wholly separate moves -- the plan was to flip Kielty for Lilly. So you'd prefer an extra, what, three or four months of Shannon Stewart to arguably the team's second-best starter for the past two years?

But for the sake of argument:

Stewart:
Runs: 54 / Home Runs: 10 / RBI: 38 / Stolen bases: 5 / AVG: .290 / OBP: .339

Kielty:
Runs: 36 / Home Runs: 5 / RBI: 38 / Stolen bases: 3 / AVG: .282 / OBP: .377

Trading a few months of the former for a few years of the latter is a pretty good deal, if you ask me.

Adam Peterson for Shea Hillenbrand- A straight salary dump.

Oh, well then it doesn't count as an acquisition! Just kick Hillenbrand off the team, he was an icky old salary dump!

Mark Hendrickson for Justin Spier- Nothing trade.

Speier has been quite useful when healthy. Hendrickson has been mediocre-to-poor with Tampa Bay. I'd rather have useful than poor.

You're flailing at nothing.

Named For Hank - Monday, July 11 2005 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#122200) #

Oh, I forgot this part: And don't talk down to me because I disagree with you. "I have no idea what I am talking about?"

You're talking about things like Phelps' waiver claim as if it was a premeditated trade, like Ricciardi called up Cleveland and said "Hey, I want Crozier, what will you take for him?" when that was so very obviously not the case. It was well-publicized at the time, so I can only assume that if you do know what you're talking about that you're deliberately ignoring the facts of the situation to make a case for yourself. And actually, that's worse.

I look forward to your list of available relievers.

VBF - Monday, July 11 2005 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#122262) #

Counter argument?

SimonB - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 02:23 AM EDT (#122318) #

*Ii disagree with almost everything you concluded, Gabriel, though I respect your right to say it.*

Guys, chill out. This comment here was probably the most reasonable point made in this thread. I'm sorry, but as much as I love the Blue Jays and even JP, this barrage of angry words seems to be a pretty blatant display of homerism. Obviously Gabriel is irritated, and maybe I disagree with some of the things he said, but he obviously has an idea of what he is talking about. There are a fair number of deals mentioned in there which, in hindsight, are quite frankly embarassing. Of course every GM makes deals that don't always turn out for the best, but Gabriel has some valid points. Hudson is below average - offensively -, at least for the short term.

2004 was the year that saw JP Ricciardi fall from an angel come to pull this organization out of mediocrity into a bumbling idiot, mostly caused by the huge regression of the team after 2003. Maybe this perception is unjustified, but these days there are a lot of people that are starting to look back at his track record, and frankly, a lot of the deals he has made have given up more talent than has come. Mind you, there have been some steals the other way, for example, Adam Peterson for Shea Hillenbrand, and salary size and situation is always an underlying issue (i.e. Stewart for Kielty). But most of Gabriel's points ring true, even if you disagree with the conclusion that JP should be fired - which I don't necessarily agree with. I think he's doing the best he can and I'm willing to believe he's got a fairly good idea what he's doing, but there have been and will be mistakes - I can certainly understand the fans' frustration with him. And for what it's worth, for all of the horrible decisions that Gord Ash made, take a look at the Blue Jays' drafting between 1995 and 2000. Outside of Kevin Witt, virtually every single first-round pick under his reign has become an above-average major league regular. Adams and Hill look good so far, but it would be difficult to top Wells and Halladay.

Named For Hank - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#122319) #

this barrage of angry words seems to be a pretty blatant display of homerism.

Refute my points, then, instead of just saying "you're a homer, he's right". Otherwise, you're just blowing smoke, same as Gabriel. I don't see his points ringing true at all -- are you saying that Phelps wasn't claimed on waivers? That Werth is the best outfielder of Rios, Gross, Werth and Wells? That having Hendrickson on the team instead of Speier would yield no difference?

2004 stunk, and no one can argue with that, but 2004 did not stink because of drafting or trades.

SimonB - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#122345) #

No, I'm not saying that. I'm saying that trading Felipe Lopez for Jason Arnold and JFG looks, admittedly in hindsight, like a terrible move. Same for dealing Q and Izzy for a guy that didn't last a full season in the bigs. Now I understand these moves, and I'm not harping on JP and calling out the dogs on him, but I can see why casual fans might be getting antsy. I like Speier for Hendrickson and Koch for Hinske (though the only decent player in that deal might end up being Justin Miller) and Peterson for Hillenbrand, but most of the other deals mentioned are, at best, a wash, and JP has, for whatever reason, been fleeced on occasion. So Gabriel's sentiments are understandable and you don't need to jump all over him for not being knowledgable.

dp - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#122377) #

Since hindsight is 20/20- The Lopez and Izturis trades were IMO the result of JP inheriting players who were screwed with before he arrived. Lopez was promoted way too aggressively, handed a new position upon arriving to the majors. He screwed up the first year JP was here, but I think he was put in a situation that maximized the chance he'd fail. I was in favor of rebuilding him along the lines with what they did with Doc.

With Izturis, you had a similar situation- he was promoted in order to put pressure on Alex Gonzalez to resign. He displayed some promise in the minors, but mostly empty batting average. He was also 20 years old playing in AAA. Had the Jays just left him alone to develop, they could've had an idea what his real talent was.

JP came in with a desire to do things his way, and those players didn't fit with the plan. Lopez wasn't dumped for Woodward, he was dumped for Russ Adams. I didn't like the move at the time, and I don't like it now. But in fairness, Lopez looked like a bust as recently as April, even to his biggest boosters (like me).

JP Has a plan. It has a lot of faults. But at this point, you have to accept the plan. He's made a ton of mistakes, and squandered a lot of inherited talent. I totally agree about Koch/Hinske FWIW- we're stuck with Hinske sucking correct a mistake that JP made. Hisnke at this point should be benched. JP's like any other GM- his guys get more of a shot to succeed than guys he didn't bring on board. The homerism here is a bit over the top.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#122379) #

Judging trades is very hard. Take Stewart-Kielty-Lilly. Firstly, it is not clear whether Stewart or Kielty/Lilly has been the better player over the last two years, when one takes into account the salary differentials that were at the heart of the deal. Secondly, Dave Gassner was a player to be named later. He's had 1 good year and another so-so half year in triple A, but frankly he looks to me like a slightly better left-handed Josh Towers. Would it shock me if he emerges as more valuable (taking into account salary) than either Stewart or Lilly? No.

I don't know how it will end up. Similarly, I have no idea how Jayson Werth for Jason Frasor will end up.

It is safe to say this. There have been no deals which had me jumping up and down with excitement, like the Dale Murray-Dave Collins/Fred McGriff deal or the Fernandez/McGriff-Alomar/Carter deal. Those don't come along very often however, even for the very best GMs.

Named For Hank - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#122383) #

So Gabriel's sentiments are understandable and you don't need to jump all over him for not being knowledgable.

But I can't let the misinformation stand without saying something -- that's the same as accepting it as truth.

dp - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#122384) #

It is safe to say this. There have been no deals which had me jumping up and down with excitement, like the Dale Murray-Dave Collins/Fred McGriff deal or the Fernandez/McGriff-Alomar/Carter deal. Those don't come along very often however, even for the very best GMs.

The Ash Jays had a couple of deals like this, though not of the same magnitude- the Cruz Jr and Bautista deals, to a lesser extent, the deal that got Werth from the O's. The JP Jays made a lot of salary dump deals that didn't net much (anything?). The Izturis deal was one where the prospect was treated as a throw-in, in a deal it seemed like the Jays had to make, and they wound up giving up a valuable commodity.

Evair Montenegro - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#122385) #

I may be wrong but I think that JFG and Arnold didn�t come in the same trade. Arnold was traded for Lopez and some days or months later JFG was traded for a PTBNL that became Jason Perry.

dp - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#122388) #

I have no idea how Jayson Werth for Jason Frasor will end up.

I think an above-average OF is better than an above-average reliever, but I could be wrong.

King Ryan - Tuesday, July 12 2005 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#122389) #

Is Jayson Werth an above average OF?

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