Look for me on the teevee, I will be there.

Lukes good to gp apparently.


Lineup:

DH Springer
RF Lukes
1B Guerrero
3B Barger
C Kirk
CF Varsho
LF Santander
2B Clement
SS Gimenez


almost the same as yesterday - only change is Santander and Clement swapping spots.

update - Santander out with back tightness.

Schneider in LF.

not upset about this.

Schneider over Santander at this point might be an upgrade. Santander's had some decent at bats, but expecting him to come in after a down year and a serious injury and start hitting taters in a playoff environment is asking a lot.

Joey L over IKF would’ve been nice right about now

Fine with Schneider but Santander had our best abs yesterday so would have been nice to see him continue those. Loperfido would be Jays 6th OFer right now. Wouldn't be starting even with Santander hurt. (Schneider is better).

and the only guys in this lineup that might need pinch hitting are Barger and Gimenez so Loperfido doesn't help there either.

I get why they didn't take Loperfido over IKF (although I've been public that I would have taken him over Santander), but the decision to take IKF has left them with (assuming Santander can't play today at all, which we don't know) a bench of Straw, IKF and Heineman.

If they want to pinch-hit, their best option is Myles Straw, which is saying something.

Love having a blow call to the first batter to get him on base.

Well, that isn't a good start.

I tuned into the third at bat of the game just in time to see the HR. Not a great start with 3 runs and lots of pitches already.

Time for some of those runs from last series to come into this series.

Well that was a much better bottom of the 1st. Hopefully the short rest makes this continue for Jays hitters.

Looking much more like themselves but boy do they miss Bo in that 4 spot. Barger just top easy to pitch to.

I’m really not sure what isn’t clear by now about Varland and hard contact. He’s not a leverage reliever. Starter maybe.

Varland’s knack of giving up crucial 3 run home runs…. Not a fan. Not a fan whatsoever.

I'll give it to John Schneider. He'd rather lose with his guys than deviate based on recent performance. Varland and Little have not been good over a large sample, but they are Schneider's guys, and he'd rather lose with them on the mound than potentially win being a bit more flexible with his usage.

The vibe has been off for the Blue Jays all series. The team isn't in sync and Seattle is playing well.

And yes, the absence of Bo hurts a lot.

Incidentally, it looks as though Naylor might be injured as well. If it's an oblique injury, he might be done for the series. That would be blow to Seattle.

Varland has great stuff but this clearly is part of his game. Not the guy to bring in with guys on base.

Very hard to unseratand why Barger keeps hitting 4th. Since August 1st, he had a 75 WRC+. He might actually be Jays second worst regular after Gimenez. Even if you're going to play him, You can easily just flip him and Varsho who had a 134 WRC+ in same period.

What the hell is up with Varsho? He seems to be misreading the ball really badly today.

Ughhhh… just every single damn thing going right for these guys.

Not that you ever want to be down 2-0, but at least it's a seven-game series, not a five-game one.

The Blue Jays did sweep the Mariners in Seattle earlier this year so… not hopeless.

Showing some fight in this current game though would be nice. Prudent, even.

With the dome open I wonder if there are very gusty winds above the stadium different than in the stadium or something impacting the flight? But yeah that doesn't explain a couple of bad first steps which is very un-Varsho.

Sigh.

Another embarrassing performance. Team just hasn't shown up.

It's almost like Seattle has an elite offense.

Not that related to the score, but I will say the home plate umpire has been very inconsistent with his strikezone all game - although calls have gone both for and against the Jays with that.

But the Jays definitely don't look right with defensive mistakes and getting beat on both sides of the ball.

Just not a fun series so far. The team that should be tired and sluggish looks more electric and bouncy than the rested one. Jays can’t even hit a ball out of the infield right now.

I hereby summon the Spirit of 2015, and another team that lost the first two games at home.

It would be nice to lose a game with the starter on the mound instead of a reliever, but alas we have a day off and a fresh bullpen for Game 3.

I could never imagine turning off a jays ALCS game....but it happened this thanksgiving.

Nothing redeemable about this series so far. It's not over but it's dire for sure.

Would be a real shame to go out without a fight.

Pulling Yesavage was more defensible than pulling Gausman in Game 1, although I don't understand why Schneider (who literally stands on the top step as soon as the lineup turns over for the 3rd time because he's so anxious to make a change) let Yesavage even face anyone in the 5th. Why not just pull him and use a reliever without runners on base?

This is a series where the Jays are probably down 0-2 regardless due to the offense, but a series where someone like John Gibbons probably gives the team a better chance to stay in it longer. The bullpen usage so far has been awful.

From Umpire Auditor:

Umpire Doug Eddings missed 24 calls in ALCS game 2.

This was the worst called playoff game since October 7, 2022 -- a game also called by Eddings

If you ever find yourself doubting in your abilities, just remember we live in a world where Doug Eddings is assigned playoff baseball games. Nothing is truly beyond your grasp.

That missed 3rd strike call on Randy Arozarena was one of the most egregious of the game. I don't know that I ever saw a batter put his head down and take a few steps toward the dugout before thinking," Wait, he called that a ball?"

I couldn't understand why Varland threw the fastball on the 3 run home run. He had thrown at least two fastballs before that and, to me, it seems if you keep throwing the same pitch, even if it is 99 mph, the batter is going to time it up which Polanco did. Some kind of slower breaking ball would have been better and I don't know if it's on Kirk for not calling it or on Varland.

There was a similar at bat against the Yankees when Aaron Judge somehow clubbed a 100 MPH inside fastball over the fence. Caleb Joseph mentioned at the time how it was a poor pitch selection and Varland needed to vary his pitched more. Anyway, I'm no expert but it makes sense to me. Varland has the stuff but the pitch selection could be better.

"Not that you ever want to be down 2-0, but at least it's a seven-game series, not a five-game one".

True words Greenfrog.

Cathal Kelly in the Globe today with an article on the Jays screwing up Yesavage's development, ominously bringing up Manoah.

Man, I hate Kelly ....

Even with that rough outing, the Jays seem to have managed Yesavage perfectly.

I had forgotten we lost the first two at home in 2015 before coming back against Texas.

You can always count on Magpie for some perspective!

Cathal Kelly in the Globe today with an article on the Jays screwing up Yesavage's development, ominously bringing up Manoah.

Haven't read the article, but that's a weird comparison given the Jays got 300+ quality MLB innings out of Manoah before he blew up. (I have no long-term concerns about Yesavage, either)

This series isn't over, but the odds of the Jays winning is miniscule.

However, even if the Mariners make quick work of them in Seattle, I've had more fun watching this team than I have of any team since the 2016 squad.

Jays are going to need to give Barger the Davis Schneider treatment next year. That is, Make him earn a spot on the team. He was great May, June, and July and terrible since. If he can adjust, he can still be an everyday player but Jays can't treat him like one right now. Honestly, I'd probably put Clement at 3B and Schneider at 2B some games right now. I certainly would never bat him cleanup. (cannot for the life of me understand this.)

This series isn't over, but the odds of the Jays winning is miniscule.

Sarah Langs on Bluesky has the exact numbers, as always:

“In series with the current 2-3-2 format, teams winning both Games 1 and 2 on the road have prevailed in the series 24 of 27 times (88.9%)”

It’s bleak, but it’s not over yet. And very much agreed that what we’ve gotten so far has been amazing.

No matter what else happens the Jays have had a better year than any other team in the AL East. Just 1 team in the AL might have a better year in the end - Seattle - and just 2 with better years overall in Seattle and whoever wins the NL (one of those teams will be disappointed, I suspect Milwaukee).

For now lets enjoy the next 2+ games. Remember, in '16 they won just 1 in the ALCS and in '15 just 2. In '89 and '91 just 1 each ('89 felt like they were doomed against an Oakland team that seemed unbeatable and very pumped up on PEDs). 1985 was the one that hurt the most - losing 4-3 after being up 2-0 and 3-1 in games. 92/93 obviously the happiest years, going all the way. Jays one of the few teams to never lose a WS. Washington/Montreal won the only time they made it there, same for the Angels. Not sure if there are any others who won it all every time they got there.

Interesting - an article at SI (probably AI made) suggests Bieber might pick up his option rather than go to free agency. I seriously doubt it (he just needs a 1 year $12 mil deal for it to tie his current deal as he gets a $4 mil buyout) but it'll be interesting to see what happens.

Yeah, you figure the Jays have somewhere between 5% and 20% of winning series now. That isn't good, buy it isn't impossible. A 3 game sweep in Seattle is something the Jays could do. And even 2 of 3 might be enough. The team has been fun this season, but they've also been resilient coming back in games and winning out to hold off the Yankees. So it's not over yet. Even if they were to lose game 3 there'd still be about 1/16 to chance to win 4 in a row.

All they can do is worry about game 3, and try to get a win.

Max is officially starting Game 4.

John Northey:

Other teams undefeated in the World Series: Miami (twice) and Arizona (once).

Conversely, Tampa, SD, Colorado & Milwaukee are 0-fer.

Even if they were to lose game 3 there'd still be about 1/16 to chance to win 4 in a row.

Too right, Michael. It's not game over yet.

I did some back-of-the-envelope calculations to see what the probability of winning four out of five would be and got 18.75% (6 good results out of 32 possibilities). I am not going to claim to remember how to do the math proper-like, but I then found something called coin-flip-calculator online which came up with the same number. It's going to be something like that anyway.

Of course, the probability of winning the next games is probably less than 50% given the Jays have squandered their home field advantage.

While we are here I used my advanced math to calculate some other probabilities:

• Ernie Clement being awesome (100%)
• Jays giving up (0%)
• Someone dunking on John Schneider's bullpen moves (100%)

Well, misery loves company. Milwaukee just finished losing 2 at home as well to start off the NLCS. So the best team in each league could be eliminated soon. Sigh. That'd make whoever televises it in the US happy.

Arizona lost to Texas in 2023

Yeah, 6/32 is what I get too if you make the simplified assumption that each game is 50/50. If you are familiar with binomial expansion and what not the exact formulas are easy to know/calculate, but even if not the number is small enough that it is easy to mentally enumerate and count.

You can sort of model it by looking at what is the result each of the next 5 games will be (pretend there is all 7 even if Seattle or Toronto win before game 7). There are 5 games left so there are 2^5 = 32 possible outcomes. Exactly one of those is the Jays winning 5 games (again, model us playing all 7 games even if the series would be cut off). So that is 1/32 that we win 5 straight. If we win 4/5 there are 5 ways that can happen (lose game 3, lose game 4, lose game 5, lose game 6, lose game 7 - and again model it as if there would be a game 7 when we win 3-6). So that gives 5/32 chances to win exactly 4 of the next 5. Add that up and you get the 6/32 that we win the series.

The probability that we win exactly 3 of the next 5 (which would be a series loss) would be 10/32 (choose 2 loses from 5 which is 5 for the first loss, 4 for the second loss, then divide by 2 as that double counts each spot). Similarly the probability that we win exactly 2 of the next 5 is 10/32, prob of 1 of the next 5 is 5/32, and 0 of the next 5 is 1/32. Again this is a modelling that says we always play 7 games even if the series is already determined and that each game is 50/50 regardless of home field or starting pitching or what not. Under those simplifying assumptions the Jays win the series 6/32 and Seattle the other 26/32. That's not that far from the 88% or whatever is the history so far on teams that have gone 0-2 at home in 7 game series.

Note that you could also model each game individually and weight for home field, starting pitching, team strength, etc., but likely you wouldn't get that far from the 50/50 estimate, which is why I originally said sort of 5%-20% as the range.

Thanks, Michael, for the detail explanation and the nostalgic reminder of binomial expansions. I dimly remember ancient formulae with exclamation marks sprinkled like pixie dust. I leave the difficult math to people better at it than myself! I think 50% is “good enough” probability per game given that one is only going to get, ahem, a ballpark figure.

Enumeration is indeed how I did my back-of-the-envelope calculations. I did use a more sophisticated method to compute my number for Ernie Clement. I'd explain but I fear it might be a bit abstruse; it's full of exclamation marks.

Well folks, always darkest before dawn, look to the east, and all that jazz.

I will say that if there is ever such thing as a pitcher gutting out a clutch performance in big games, then i'm happy to have two guys like Bieber and Scherzer on the bump to try and do it.

And I have a very hard time believing this team will go down meekly. I do not think they will go gently into that good night.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1yWSePMqsk&t=16s

Must-win game for Toronto tonight.

Game 3 Lineup - Santander back and hitting cleanup

DH Springer
LF Lukes
1B Guerrero
RF Santander
C Kirk
CF Varsho
3B Barger
2B Clement
SS Gimenez

Happy they moved Barger down finally. Santander has had some great abs. Let's hope he gets some great results tonight.

I'd be more aggressive and put Clement at SS and Schneider at 2B (Gimenez to the bench). But this is the girl they brought to the date and all...

I'd be more aggressive and put Clement at SS and Schneider at 2B (Gimenez to the bench). But this is the girl they brought to the date and all..."

I'd have put Gimenez or Clement on bench in Toronto. In Seattle, with extreme pitcher stadium and difficulty hiting, I think defense make more sense.