Passing observation: the middle innings of last night's game were just painfully draggy. The homer-fest at the start was great fun, and Wells' third HR plus BJ's heroics were a blast at the end, but man, that game lasted well over 3 1/2 hours. Thanks, Messrs. Walker & Downs.

Chacin did alright for his first game back, and I know they'll stretch him out some more, but the Jays need to get more seven-innings-plus starts from their rotation. The whole pen, outside of Ryan, is slumping right now, and the starters have to pick up the slack. Hopefully, with the expectedly easier part of the schedule finally here, the pen will get a breather.

The Tigers had one of the easiest schedules in baseball in April and May, and they may be starting to come back to earth. After the Yankees, they get the Red Sox, White Sox and Blue Jays; later in the month, it's the Cardinals and Astros. It would be nice for the Jays to catch them on their way back down.

Bets moment of last night's game: Jamie Campbell's quiet, shuddering "eeww" as the camera showed the chunky guy stripping off his shirt after the 8th inning. I'm not sure he knew that went over the air, but it was brilliant.

Bets moment of last night's game: Jamie Campbell's quiet, shuddering "eeww" as the camera showed the chunky guy stripping off his shirt after the 8th inning. I'm not sure he knew that went over the air, but it was brilliant.

That guy was the most disturbing thing I've seen on a baseball broadcast since Jason Kendall's broken leg.  Thank God they cut to a commercial just at the moment he was whipping off his pants, because if I'd seen what was underneath I might have had a serious problem.

Re: Downs vs Manny Ramirez

Manny's record against Downs is 2 for 9 with no homers. Manny's record against Jason Frasor (who was warming up at the time) is 3 for 8 with 2 homers. That was probably the reasoning.

I had a soccer game downtown last night from 6:30 to 8:00 but still made it to the Dome in time to catch 2.5 hours of baseball, which was nice--I got my money's worth. 

I have to say I enjoy the periodic rowdiness and volume of the fans at Skydome these days.  BJ Ryan is the surest spark to the crowd getting on its feet, but the curtain call for Vernon was great, and Speier even received a great ovation after striking out Ramirez.

The Skydome crowd will never rival Yankee Stadium or Fenway, but I think the enthusiastic 25,000 or so who show up are more fun to share a game with than the silent 50,000 plus from the early 90s.

I have a soft spot in my heart for dancing fat guys, but he pushed the limits.  Nonetheless, he's better than Ace.  I freakin' hate Ace. 

If I'm not mistaken, the last curtain call was actually on Opening Day after Molina belted one about 785 feet off Santana.

The ball Molina hit on opening night landed in section 239, Row 3, Seat 5 (Just beside the foul pole).  I was sitting in Row 2, Seat 1 and it was a buddy of mine who caught it.  That ball had a nice big black mark on it from where Molina tatooed it.  What a shot!

I looked through the Batter's Box archives and tried to find the thread where "protection" was debated (mostly in the pre-season Blue Jay prediction articles) and could not.  However, given last night's game it is appropos to bring up the issue.

Maybe "protection" is a fallacy, statistically and historically speaking, but, let's face it, Vernon in '03 with Carlos and '06 with Troy is pretty telling.  Imagine Manny in the line-up without Papi, you might as well use Bonds in SF as an analogy.

There's also the mental aspect of "protection", with Glaus assuming the leadership role on offense.  Does anyone else find it interesting how much Troy "talks"; Jamie mentions this every couple of games and the cameras this week have shown him to be vocally active on the field.  Many of the pre-season articles positioned Mighty Troy as the Strong, Silent Type coming in, but the adverse seems to be true (apologies linking to a Griffin article, but Troy's enthusiasm and confidence is resonant in that quote, and I can only assume the other batters feed off it).

P.S.  Aaron Hill is now third on the team with 11 doubles (after Rios and Glaus); his average is now a serviceable .257.  Barring injury, it appears the only weak link in the Fighting Jays of '06 is obviously the other 2B/SS.  Still wouldn't trade Shea for one, though.

The evidence thus suggests that protection doesn't matter 
at the major-league level; it doesn't help to bat in front 
of a big-name hitter.

Or, more likely, would you trade minor league pitching so you could have Lugo for the rest of the year?

I'd trade minor league pitching, or major league pitching, or both.  Lugo's a very good two-way SS and he seems to love hitting in this park.  Just getting him out of Tampa Bay's lineup when they play the Jays is probably a couple of wins this year.  :)

I'd rather have had Kennedy but Lugo will do just fine.  Is he really an option?

Maybe "protection" is a fallacy, statistically and historically speaking, but, let's face it, Vernon in '03 with Carlos and '06 with Troy is pretty telling.

Maybe it's not a case of direct protection, but in a whole being more than the sum of its parts. I'm thinking that the '03 team had a much better offence overall than any other that Vernon's played on, until this year.

Toronto's runs scored the last 5 years:

2002: 5.02 R/G

2003: 5.52 R/G

2004: 4.47 R/G

2005: 4.78 R/G

2006: 5.63 R/G

I'd rather have had Kennedy but Lugo will do just fine.  Is he really an option?

  B.J. Upton is hitting really well at AAA, but he's also got 18 errors. The Rays may not be willing to give up Lugo just yet.  I'd like to see it happen, but who knows what it would cost? League? McGowan? I'm not sure what his contract status is.

  (Amusingly, former future-all-stars Edwin Jackson and Sean Burroughs are both toiling for the Rays at AAA; my, but how stars do fall.)

The evidence thus suggests that protection doesn't matter at the major-league level; it doesn't help to bat in front of a big-name hitter.

Part 2 of this sentence might be generally true across all players, but Part 1 is a substantial oversimplification.  The Grabiner study takes players -- good, bad and mediocre -- and evaluates whether it helps to hit in front of a "big-name hitter."  The study should have instead focused on great hitters, and whether they are able to add more value hitting in front of a "big-name hitter."  Protection matters to the extent that a great hitter's bat can be avoided -- either by risking walks by daring them to chase bad pitches (the Vernon Wells problem) or by intentionally walking them when appropriate.

Consider last year's intentional walk totals for hitters of comparable ability (read OPS).  The crucial difference is the absence of a second threat in the Angels' lineup:

Jason Giambi (5)

Mark Teixeira (5)

Alex Rodriguez (8)

Manny Ramirez (9)

David Ortiz (9)

Vladimir Guerrero (26)

As another illustration, consider Jeff Kent when he played with Bonds on the Giants.  Here are his OPS and IBB totals for his prime Giants years of 1998-2002:  .914 (4), .877 (3), 1.021 (6), .877 (4), .933 (3).  Barry, with a weak supporting cast (other than the surprising J.T. Snow), was intentionally walked 120 times in 2004.

If protection was irrelevant, consider the likelihood of Bonds being intentionally walked 120 times hitting in front of Manny, Papi or Sheffield.  Put differently, if Bonds hit in front of a pitcher in each and every at-bat, his line would be something like .000/1.000/.000.  So it's not that protection is irrelevant.  It's just that it can't make silk purse hitters out of sow's ears, or vice versa.  Some people have suggested that it can, but the Grabiner study addresses that point effectively.

I'm not aware of a Bill James study on Ripken/Murray, but he did do one on Bob Horner/Dale Murphy.  Horner did not perform better with Murphy hitting behind him.  Oddly enough, the failure of 'protection' to work was not hailed as Murphy's Law, and schoolchildren did not recite "Big Bob Horner" rhymes.

A real, live trade! Jamey Newberg reports that, according to The Fort Worth Star-Telegram, Texas has dealt Phil Nevin to the Cubs for Jerry Hairston, Jr. The Rangers will pay a big chunk of Nevin's salary and Nevin will presumably try to fill the Derek Lee void at 1B in Wrigley.

B.J. Ryan's 2005 by month:

April: 3.09, 19Ks
May: 0.00, 22K
June: 2.79, 15K
July: 8.68, 11K
August: 0.79, 20K
September: 1.50, 13K

  Maybe he got tired in July -- or perhaps it was just a bad month -- but he got right back on the horse.

BJ Ryans ERA's by month 2005:

April 3.09

May 0.00

June 2.79

July 8.68

August 0.79

September 1.50

October 0.00 (1 IP)

Month       G  GS  CG SHO  GF  SV  IP     H  BFP  HR   R  ER  BB  IB  SO  SH  SF  WP HBP  BK  2B  3B GDP ROE   W   L    ERA
April      11   0   0   0  11   4  11.2  11   50   3   4   4   4   0  19   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   3.09
May        16   0   0   0  14  10  15.1   9   59   0   0   0   5   0  22   0   1   1   0   0   2   0   1   1   0   0   0.00
June        9   0   0   0   8   4   9.2   6   36   1   3   3   0   0  15   0   0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   2.79
July       10   0   0   0   7   4   9.1  12   48   0  10   9   7   2  11   1   0   1   1   0   2   0   0   1   0   2   8.68
August     10   0   0   0   9   6  11.1   8   46   0   1   1   3   0  20   0   0   1   0   0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0.79
September  12   0   0   0  11   7  12     8   47   0   2   2   5   0  13   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   2   0   0   1   1.50
October     1   0   0   0   1   1   1     0    4   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0.00

Ryan threw 70.1 innings last season and made 69 appearances, neither a particularly unusual total for a closer.  He's faced 93 batters in the first two months of '06 versus 109 last season and had fewer pitches per plate appearance as well.

His ERA after July 31 last year was 0.79.  If that's wearing down, then God Bless The Worn, is all I can say.

I am not worried at all about Ryan's use so far.  He's on pace for about 75 appearances and 80 innings.  That hardly constitutes overuse. 

He is not however likely to continue to allow lots and lots of flyballs and no home runs, whether he is overused or not.

He is, though, likely to allow few home runs.  From 2003-2006, Ryan has allowed nine homers in 233 2/3 innings, which is outstanding.  What's more likely is that Ryan will return to his normal G/F ratio... G/F ratio has more persistence for pitchers than home run totals.

I should point out on the subject of Ryan that when he threw 87 innings in 2004 he was slightly less dominant after July 31, with a 3.09 ERA (but with similar peripherals).

The Bill James analysis on Dale Murphy hitting with Bob Horner behind him was in the 1985 Abstract.  It covered 9 seasons.  During that time, Murphy had 2,253 AB's with Horner hitting behind him and 1,534 without.  Murphy hit .269 and slugged .480 with Horner behind him.  He hit .283 and slugged .494 without Horner.  Despite this, it was common to hear people say that Murphy was really hurt when Horner was out of the lineup.  I think this 'protection' thing is one of those cases where something is accepted by people because it seems logical.  The actual facts are a little obscure for the casual fan and even when the facts are made known, they seem to fly in the face of logic.

I do see the arguement that a star player may be walked more frequently if there is a no 'protection' behind him, but there is no factual evidence that his hitting per AB suffers.  The James article did not include data on how often Murphy walked with or without Horner behind him.