Morning update:

Jason Stark has it as a one year deal for Stairs.  The Star wrote that Ricciardi had Stairs as one of two players being considered for the 4th OF spot.  Additionally, from the Star article it sounds like Chris Gomez would be the final bench player signed.

There's been some chatter about the Dodgers and Jays because the Dodgers could trade a starter (Penny) & could use a big hitter and the Jays could use a starter & might not re-sign Wells.  At this point I think that's just speculation because it would make some sense.  I don’t think the teams have talked.

Rule 5 draft is today.  It's expected to be brief - Kevin Goldstein at BP put the over/under at 6 in the major league portion.  Of course the Jays could potentially lose Gronkiewicz  and Vermilyea.  If they lose Vermilyea it'll be frustrating because I think there's no chance that any team would take either Robinzon Diaz or Sergio Santos, particularly Diaz.  Gronkiewicz looks like Steve Andrade-lite and Andrade hasn't been able to catch on in the majors so if a team took him I wouldn't lose sleep.

Shi Davidi says Meche says no

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20061207.wsptjays7/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

There's been some chatter about the Dodgers and Jays because the Dodgers could trade a starter (Penny) & could use a big hitter and the Jays could use a starter & might not re-sign Wells.  At this point I think that's just speculation because it would make some sense.

I don't see Wells getting traded to any teams that already have a center fielder, even mediocrities like Juan Pierre.

Much of Wells' value (at least long term if not so much on the ~$5M he'll be getting in 2007) is tied up in his ability to play center field. Move him to a corner and a lot of his value gets removed. (Of course, on the Dodgers, Pierre would be the one who'd need to be moved to LF to accommodate Wells, but then that would remove some of Pierre's value, such as it is).

Further, while Wells may well have turned the corner offensively, the last time he put up a big offensive season (OPS+ of 131 in 2003), he followed it up with two OPS+'s of just around 100. My gut tells me that his 2007 will look more like 2006 (OPS+ of 126) than 2004-2005, but this is far from a certainty. A team looking to add a big bat for 2007 may not be entirely convinced that Wells will fit the bill.

While Wells would help pretty much any team in 2007, I'm not sure who the real market for him is. I think Texas still needs a center fielder. But who else?

If the Jays want to improve this year, I don't see any alternative OTHER than trading Wells. They have to get some pitching, and moving him might be the only way to do it.

I disagree. I believe that any trade involving Wells will make the Jays weaker in 2007, though stronger thereafter.
 
With Wells having just one year on his contract, any team acquiring him is not going to give up pitching of commensurate worth. They would give up pitching whom the Jays would value more for their impending long term contributions than for what they could provide in 2007.
 
A trade of Wells would be a sign (to me, anyway) that the team is less interested in going for the playoffs in 2007 than it is in subsequent years. I don't judge the merits of this, I'm just stating my belief.
 
With the team's inability to lure a #3 starter with $40M, and with the the 3-4-5 slots looking like Chacin, Marcum, Towers, Ricciardi may well have to acknowledge (if only privately) that 2007 might not be the year to make the run. Of course, this message would never be articulated publicly, and it would, in retrospect, make the Thomas signing seem inappropriate.
 
On the topic of #3 starters, why has there been so much wanton pursuit of Lilly and Meche, but none of Suppan? Did Suppan re-sign with St. Louis without letting anyone know? His low K rates notwithstanding, he has had ERA+'s of better than 100 for the past three seasons. He has less stuff than Lilly and Meche, but has had more success.

Cashman continued his hot streak of the last 6 months by picking up Josh Phelps in the Rule 5. 

The times are topsy turvy indeed. Cashman seems to be gaining more elbow room in the control booth with each passing year and is acting in a way that should cause everyone in the AL east panic. If the Yankees are going to (a) spend, (b) re-stock the minors and (c) pay more attention to the end of their bench, then that's a combination to inspire fear. The Phelps acquisition, in and of itself, is fairly irrelevant, but it is symptomatic of a changing mindset.

As for the potential Soriano acquisition... just why does Bavasi have a job? Really? What in his track record suggests that he should be a GM?

Mike, you're probably correct about Suppan, for all the reasons you cited. But that doesn't explain everyone else's reluctance to pursue him. I mean, his name just never seems to come up as part of the tier B group (Padilla, Lilly, Meche). Why aren't the Royals also paying him $11M? Jealousy over his accomplishments elsewhere in the state of Missouri?

While my preference would be for Ted Rogers to spend every last dime he has (it's his money, why would I care?) on Bonds, Zito, Lilly, Meche, Gagne, Sidd Finch, Honus Wagner, Shoeless Joe, et al, and position the team to really compete in 2007, the pragmatic side of my nature says that something good can come of 2007, if only in an 83-win season.

With so many rotation spots up for grabs, 2007 could be the year to separate the wheat from the chaff and decide, moving forward, which pitchers have a future and which do not. I know it's not as easy as all that, since pitchers can take a few years to sort themselves out, but I think the team needs to unmuddy the waters. Will Chacin, Marcum, Janssen and McGowan become utile, inexpensive cogs that allow the team to focus its spending elsewhere in 2008, or are they merely vapourware?

If the Blue Jays are seriously thinking of going into 2007 with Royce Clayton, John McDonald and Jason Smith on the major-league roster, something has gone screwy at the RC.

Here's the Globe on Ricciardi's 0-for-2 on the FA pitching market. I'm not heartbroken that Meche went elsewhere -- if he really joined a last-place organization for an extra $1.2M per year rather than jump into a pennant race, then I'm even less concerned about losing out on him. And while Lilly would probably have continued to be consistently inconsistent had he remained, the Jays are now in an unpleasant position not seen since the Delgado departure -- the FA market has left them with a serious hole to fill, and their options are limited. Jeff Suppan is the very definition of meh; he's never had an AL ERA below 4.34, and he would be 4.50+ in the AL East. But Lilly's innings have to come from somewhere -- I have faith that Marcum and Janssen will be effective starters, but I don't have faith that they'll get there in 2007.

Chuck is correct that trading Wells would weaken the team right now -- no one's going to give up serious big-league talent for a pending free agent. It would, in effect, be an admission that the Jays aren't really going for it in 2007.  But I'm starting to wonder if that isn't their best option right now -- save their money, let their young talent develop and become more effective and trade-attractive, and reload for 2008. It won't happen -- it'd be a PR disaster, for one thing -- and I think they'll take the money they didn't spend and put it towards keeping Wells long-term, which on balance is probably a good thing.

I guess I'm just a little disturbed that the Jays were outspent by so little by a couple of second-division clubs for the services of the two pitchers they'd specifically targeted. I could understand (and, in retrospect, be more than a little relieved) that Matt Clement chose the World Series champion Red Sox over the Jays a couple years back. I don't really understand why Lilly and Meche chose Chicago and (apparently) Kansas City for a not-appreciable difference in dollars. Something may have changed in the market's perception of Toronto, and not in a good way. Either that, or the Jays didn't choose their targets very well.

I suppose I'm just not as high on Buchholz and Floyd as others are. Buchholz has spent three years at Triple-A without getting his ERA under 4.81, and his K/9 rate has exceeded 7.5/9 only twice -- once in Rookie Ball when he was 18, and last year in 44 innings pitched. His major-league ERA in more than 100 IP is 5.89. Floyd has spent parts of three seasons in the majors, and his first 100 IP have produced a 6.96 ERA;  his K/9 has been below 7.0 ever since he hit AAA in 2004. And Buchholz has now been traded twice in the last two years -- that's a red flag (cf. Jason Arnold & John-Ford Griffin). Both of these guys unquestionably have live arms, but I don't see the evidence they know what to do with them. Meanwhile, the Phils and Astros got proven, reliable starters in return. I like their ends of the deal better.

Jordan:

I wonder about the overall direction of the Jays.  Initially under JP the plan was that it was tough to get free agents to come to Toronto, and expensive, and the answer was to develop the farm system, and the kids, and compete that way.  Then over the last year or two the Jays have morphed into a generic "shop till we drop" team which worked well last off-season but didn't work this off-season.  I don't think the Jays can go back to trading Wells and calling themselves a development team from a PR perspective. 

However if I asked "what is the Jays philosophy for competing?" I am not sure how to answer it.  They don't really have one from what I can see, or maybe the one they had, develop the farm, hasn't worked out the way they wanted it to.

If the Jays don't want to trade Vernon Wells then their other options are limited.  They could sign a lesser free agent; they could trade a regular everyday player, although the backups are not there; or they can trade prospects, but most of the Jays prospects won't bring a big return.  I hope JP doesn't decide he has to trade Adam Lind for pitching out of this setback.

Well, I'm quite relieved that Lilly and Meche went elsewhere.  And I think Suppan would perform slightly worse than Marcum in the AL East.  In my opinion, Lilly was the only pitcher the Jays went after that would have been a real step above the likes of Marcum, Janssen, Towers, etc.....

As for the notion that the Jays would be a weaker team in 2007 if they traded Wells, I think that depends on the return.  If he was traded for prospects, absolutely the Jays would be a weaker team in 2007.  However, for the sake of argument, lets say he was traded to the Dodgers for Penny and Ethier.  Taking a step back and looking at it objectively, which team would you rather have?  Halladay/Burnett/Chacin/Marcum/Towers and Johnson/Wells/Rios, OR Halladay/Burnett/Penny/Chacin/Marcum and Ethier/Rios/Johnson.  I guess it's a matter of preference, but I would predict that the latter team would finish the season with a better record.  The icing on the cake would be the extra money available for the Jays in the 2007-2008 off-season which, at least for now, looks a lot deeper than this year's.

Gerry,

I agree with your concerns for the most part.  I think the strategy may still be there, but there has been a cash infusion by ownership.  The budget has gone from $50m to $100m in a short period and the best way to increase your payroll over that period is free agent signings.  I would expect that the payroll will become a little more stable around $100m and JP can then display a strategy of trading high-price surplus and players approaching a costly FA day for salary protected prospects and regulars.

I say "expect", but I mean "hope".  I think you share my concern that JP might panic at not getting his starters and dump a Lind, McGowan or cheap regular (Reed) for a marginal, expensive pitcher.  It's robbing Peter to pay Paul.  The strategy the JP championed upon his arrival, I believe, would dictate that he trade Wells (big payday in waiting) for young regulars and prospects.

We'll have to wait and see.

The optimistic read is that Ricciardi has matured some in his approach, with the laser-like focus being tempered with some cool reasoned judgment.

That's fair. I am glad that Ricciardi didn't feel tempted to overbid on mid-level talent like Lilly and Meche -- and if Meche is getting five years from KC, all the better that the Jays didn't try to match that. There are players you get into bidding wars for, and there are those you leave for other teams to overpay.

-Rotoworld's reporting that the Jays are close to signing Chris Gomez.

-The Denver post is reporting that the Jays might be interested in Jennings and speculating that the Jays may offer Johnson.

-The Riverside Press, LA times and Toronto Sun are all either reporting or speculating that the Dodgers are interested in aquiring Wells and may offer Penny and Kemp or Ethier.

The only one of those that matters I guess is the Gomez signing, since anyone, reputable media source or otherwise, can speculate about potential trades.  It doesn't mean that the teams involved have even so much as talked to each other.

Excellent point about salary room, Mike G.  With all the navel-gazing in the Toronto media, you'd think that Vernon Wells is the only player in a contract year in the league. 

Jason Jennings and Jake Westbrook are both in contract years, and the Rockies in particular are in panic mode with Jennings.  If Wells, in light of his impending free agency, won't command absolute top-drawer talent in return, then why won't the price for Jennings also be correspondingly lower than fair value?

Whatever else happens, the Jays will not punt 2007 to rebuild.  It would allow Vernon's contract-year status to override the entire structure of the club, in terms of how both salary and playing time are allocated.

As was mentioned earlier, excess payroll room could have its advantages.  Bartolo Colon has one year and $14m left on his contract and could probably be had on the cheap - depending on how much salary the acquiring club agreed to take on.  He should resume throwing again next month when he's recovered from his surgery (partially torn rotator cuff.

Though I'm not certain how the Elias Rankings work, I would think that Bartolo would rank as a type A free agent.

It might be a bit risky, but I think it is something that has at least crossed the minds of the Blue Jay brass.

So far this off-season, we've added.....Clayton. I'm ok with that. Not to revisit that deal too much, but rather than entering the season with little depth there, he grabbed a guy now with no less of draft pick who can field SS in the majors. For a contract so small that that player could be cut. This isn't signing Batista for 3rd.

Adams gets to hide in AAA until he figures things out.

Where Clayton, Stairs, and the Rule 5 SS hurt is in roster construction. Carrying two or more of Clayton, the Rule 5 SS, Gomez, and John Macdonald leaves the team brutally thin on SS production and worse on 3B production should Glaus go down (not that I want that, but you have to plan for that with a somewhat brittle fellow).

Hattig's possibly making the roster or being called up isn't enough insurance at 3B.

A guy like Hinske would have been so much better than Stairs; ironically, he was traded to save $3 million or so on the 2007 payroll, and with JP's mercifully pulling out of the Lilly/Meche nosedive, that money will go unspent, and Hinske will be useful for the evil enemy. I wonder if they could get him back for a song.

There are scant few position players coming down the pipeline. These little deals now to establish backups and injury replacements are going to be huge for the Jays. I've blocked from my memory which year it was they got caught in an injury epidemic and featured Berg at 1B and other follies, but I fear that possibility for 2007.

How would I recommend JP solve this? Reacquire Hinkse, and get Clayton-esque players who would accept AAA assignments as Phillips did last year. Agressively push some of the youngsters up if need be to see if they are ever going to cut it (Santos, Ford-Griffin, etc).

And I hate to say it, but entertain seriously any offers from the the Dodgers for Wells, with a window for them to resign him, too. Penny and Kemp and prospects? That's looking sweet now.

I'd also recommend that he make a big push for Lieber for a reliever.

Being in a position to take on payroll in the trade market looks like our salvation now.

One last thought.....

....How useful would Pat Burrell be to the Jays? Coupling his acquisition with trading an OF for pitching help would be inventive.

Same here.  I was secretly hoping he'd be informally blackballed and not offered a contract by any MLB organization. 

Wow, it's easy to see who occupies the moral high ground here!

For the rest of us, it'll be fun to watch him hobble his way around left field all season long and turn opposing batters' routine flyouts into bases-clearing doubles.

The flaw in this theory is that Bonds still moves around decently in the outfield, although the Giants do try to rest him as much as possible to protect his injury.  For one thing, he's still a much better outfielder than Carlos Lee who you mentioned earlier - Lee brings "stumbling around" to a new level.  (That is, if you don't count Adam Dunn, who has made all the previous standards of stumbling worthless)

Have you ever seen Willingham?

I must admit, I haven't seen him enough to make that judgment (did he play in OF during the Marlins/Jays series?), although his stats are just terrible - as bad as Dunn's.  Dunn, of course, is the first guy I've seen in a long time who looks afraid of having the ball hit to him.  At least Manny, bless his butchering heart, genuinely enjoys his fielding. 

The weird thing about Lee, is that despite his huge bulk, Carlos Lee is fast... he runs really well.  He just has no instincts for playing the field at all... or maybe he just really hates it. 

Just checked Bonds stats and confirmed what I thought, he stole 3 bases last year without getting caught.  In '05 he didn't steal any but played just 14 games.  Going from 2001 (73 HR) to present he has stolen 38 bases and been caught 6 times.  16-1 since 2003. 

For a guy with bad knees that is amazing.  Heck, for a guy who has good knees a 16-1 stretch is amazing.  To me this lands into the 'baseball intellegence' category.  Bonds is a very, very smart player and that is why he has done all that he has done.  From the amazing numbers posted once he was moved out of the leadoff slot in Pittsburgh (due to losing in arbitration due to his poor RBI totals - he pushed hard to be moved in the lineup and did whatever was needed to convince the manager to do just that), to going onto steroids (insert legal disclaimer here) after McGwire's big year and lack of concern shown by baseball and fans in general, to being a solid (via stats) outfielder despite poor knees who can steal bases when needed as well.

To me Bonds is one of the best every, drugs or not.  He plays to win and does all that is needed to achieve it - from taking walks at an insane pace and not chasing balls in the dirt to all I mentioned above.  I hope he sticks around for a few more years and makes it to 800 HR's and gives A-Rod and the like a hard target to reach.

excuse me for believing that criminals should be punished rather than rewarded

I'll excuse you for believing that criminals should be punished through the criminal justice system, sure.  Calling for a person to be stripped of his right to work because he is the target of an investigation (Bonds remains unindicted so he has not even been charged with a crime) is over the top in my book.  Currently the criminal justice system has thrown its entire weight behind wringing out even a list of charges against Barry Bonds and has come up totally empty.

He ain't no hero, but the solution isn't to organize a  blackball party to kick him out of the game.