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It's really come to this?

After the failures of Marcum and Janssen and Zambrano over the last two days, the Blue Jays are looking to Josh Towers to save their sorry butts?

My, my, my.



Everyone's got an opinion and everyone's grumpy. I'll just offer this - why Vermilyea? Presumably, he is going to be used in long relief if a starter gets shelled early.

Two problems with that.

1) the starters aren't getting shelled early. Of course, that could change real, real quick, but even if it does...

2) Marcum, Janssen, and Zambrano should be pitching long relief. Long relief! When the seventh inning comes around, they can take off their uniforms and play gin rummy unless the game goes into extra innings. Long relief! Three guys for the job!

The guy I want to see up here is Brian Tallet. Not because he's so great, but because he's left-handed. Gibbons clearly seems to believe that a man must have a LOOGY and a man must use him as such. Fine, but this means that the second most experienced man in his bullpen, one of - count 'em - two guys with an actual record of successful relief pitching in the major leagues, is basically doing... nothin'

Just hanging around...

So get Gibbons a real live LOOGY, and he'll feel free to put Scott Downs to work doing something a little more constructive...

The two juggernauts continue to roll. Alex Rodriguez is serving notice that Barry Bonds may break Aaron's record this year, but he's not even going to hold it ten years. I said before the season started that he would take a run at Gehrig's AL record for RBI, which has stood more than 70 years, and finally settle for about 175...

Nothing so far has made me want to reconsider...

And hot 'Lanta, showed the Mets who was boss. And Jeff Francoeur drew another walk - that's 7 of in his last 9 games and matches his total through the 4th of July last season. Their Braves Pythag isn't that impressive, but one lopsided loss can skew that pretty good this early. And in the three games started by Mark Redman, the Braves are 0-3 and have allowed 25 runs. I think they'll probably try something else fairly soon.

Oh, one more thing.

GO RAPTORS!




21 April 2007: It's Come to This? | 53 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Leigh - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#166354) #
Where was Accardo last night?  He should be getting higher leverage innings than any of the converted starters in the pen.  Argh.
Chuck - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#166356) #

The guy I want to see up here is Brian Tallet. Not because he's so great, but because he's left-handed. Gibbons clearly seems to believe that a man must have a LOOGY and a man must use him as such. Fine, but this means that the second most experienced man in his bullpen, one of - count 'em - two guys with an actual record of successful relief pitching in the major leagues, is basically doing... nothin'

I couldn't agree more. Vermilyea is just taking up space at the moment. Let Gibbons loogify Tallet and move Downs to gen pop. The bullpen may not have all the bullets required to excel, but Gibbons should at least be deploying those bullets more optimally than he has.

Free Scott Downs. Free Scott Downs. Attica. Attica.

Flex - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#166361) #
A rather testy Ricciardi said an interesting thing on the post-game show last night. He said Accardo has done really well so far "when he gets a chance to pitch." I heard in that a little frustration about how Gibbons is deploying his bullpen.

Mike Green - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#166364) #
I think that Marcum and Janssen are better pitchers than Accardo and Tallet by a long shot. 

On the other hand, it would be better if they were moved to a lower leverage role for the time being with Downs and Frasor occupying the key roles.

Hodgie - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#166365) #

I find the Accardo situation interesting as well. When considering the Jays basically kept Accardo at the expense of losing Rosario for a bucket of balls, why in the name of all that is Blue Jay is he not being used? I don't pretend to know if the results of the last two games would have been any different if they had tried to levarge Accardo at least once in that time, but going back to Marcum again in a high leverage situation one day after he spit the bit seems to me to be setting him up for failure.

<sigh>Again, I am not claiming Accardo is the silver bullet, but if you are going to make sacrifices to keep a guy, make the sacrifice worthwhile!</sigh>

 

timpinder - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#166367) #
Statistically Accardo is better against lefties than Downs, despite the fact he's right-handed.  If Ryan and League were healthy then maybe you could afford to toss Downs in there for just a batter or two.  However, with this depleted bullpen I think Downs is one of the best relievers and should be getting more innings.  Maybe Gibbons should try Accardo out as the situational lefty killer for a while.
Twilight - Saturday, April 21 2007 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#166369) #
If I remember correctly, AJ's lone strikeout was on a pitch way up and in. Considering it's his curve that makes hitters look so silly against him, why isn't he using it? There must be some reason. Perhaps he is having trouble controlling them this season, or they're hard on his arm, or something...but... come on AJ, throw the curve!

Initially I thought he was using the fastball and change the first time through the order (hey, it worked) then on the second time through pull out the curveball to keep them confused. But he just seemed like he didn't want to throw them at all. It wasn't a horrible outing, but he really needs that pitch.

deep dish - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 12:29 AM EDT (#166379) #

I think its time to closely examine JP’s successes as a General Manager even if there is a more carefully researched and sober analysis which says I am wrong. 

 First, I look at the current roster and I think 1-9 it is decent and that JP has put together a useful rotation   When these elements are more-or-less in place I have to look at management problems when the team plays poorly - I think the third base coaching has been terrible, Gibbons swaps pitchers too often - yet somehow they always seem to face one batter too many,  Adam Lind has a reputation as a questionable fielder, but the fielding mistakes I see him making are mental (playing too deep) which should be something either another outfielder, someone from the bench or a coach can help with - which suggests a lack of leadership.  There is other evidence of this - Alex Rios has a future superstar label on him but has a lower OBP than Frank Thomas who has a batting average lower than his weight - which is odd considering that JP originally seemed to be a moneyball GM; I am taking Alex's low OBP to mean the team either isn't buying into JP's leadership or JP's plan isn't working.   Brandon League's off season conditioning should have had some supervision, the team had a big investment in League and I think letting him overtrain is unacceptable - if a trainer phones two players a day he can check on the entire forty man roster in a month; with video conferencing etc he could monitor techniques. On this front, I am going to say that  JP hires the management team, he is a stakeholder on these issues and shares some blame.

Second, I look at the problems with the roster.  We have McDonald and Smith who play essentially much the same role, and Royce Clayton who I think offers a lot of good veteran presence and poise but isn't really much better than the two previously mentioned infielders.  Jason Phillips is at best a quadruple-A backup at both first base and catcher.  I am about 100% certain that Zaun's legs will fall off  in or before August; he simply can't handle this workload.   Matt Stairs is a decent player, but I am not sure an American League team really needs a pinch hitter.  Looking short term at at some of the smaller moves JP has made lately, you have to look at the Eric Hinske trade as one where we lost a player who we could use, and we let Speier go when he would look very good in our bullpen right now.  Based on the rumours we have heard about the team's budget Hinkse and Speier would not have impacted the bottom line all that much.  All these failures are on JP.

Third, I look at the minor leagues and I think we have seen a lot of disappointment.   We have confirmation now that the Jason Arnold trade was a complete bust, we received nothing in return and the player we gave up developed quite well.  John Ford-Griffin(?) isn't looking like a prospect and decision time on many of our other minor leaguers strikes me as close at hand.  To me, the Jays have to make their run this year or possibly next (Halladay is declining, Thomas and Glaus are near the end of their careers) and for that to happen we need an everyday big-leaguer not named Lind to come out of the minors quite shortly. If our team can't do this, I have to evaluate JP's success at stocking the minors as a failure.  Since JP hasn't had much luck with trades and roster moves that were meant to pay off in the far term, there is not much hope he would be able to rebuild a team that has made its run.

I can't rule out that  team policies in scouting, training, and conditioning have some accountability for injuries    In addition to what I said about Brandon League, JP's staff owns some fractional amount of the responsiblity for the injuries to BJ Ryan, Glaus,  and Johnson

So if I were in charge, JP would have until July to make the on field product better, fix the problems with the big league roster, and show he has some big league caliber talent in the minors.  Failure to do so would cause me to "repurpose" JP and hire a "Director of Baseball Operations" by August 1st to run the on-the-diamond, and scouting organization until the season ends when JP's position as GM would be made redundant.

 

robertdudek - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 02:54 AM EDT (#166380) #
I welcome posts I can critique ...

I think the third base coaching has been terrible, Gibbons swaps pitchers too often - yet somehow they always seem to face one batter too many,

Every team's fans complain about this, and it rarely makes any difference over the course of a season. It's like being worried about window dressing when you don't know where your next meal is coming from.

Adam Lind has a reputation as a questionable fielder, but the fielding mistakes I see him making are mental (playing too deep) which should be something either another outfielder, someone from the bench or a coach can help with - which suggests a lack of leadership.

Adam Lind stands precisely where the coaches tell him too. He's not there to lead, simply to hit and catch the ball.

There is other evidence of this - Alex Rios has a future superstar label on him but has a lower OBP than Frank Thomas who has a batting average lower than his weight - which is odd considering that JP originally seemed to be a moneyball GM; I am taking Alex's low OBP to mean the team either isn't buying into JP's leadership or JP's plan isn't working. 

Sample size is far to small to pull anything useful out of this year's stats. Many young players walk infrequently and Rios always has (even in the minors); Thomas is a huge walk guy and has been his whole career. Overbay and Glaus walk, Vernon generally doesn't. There's a decent mix of high and low walking guys so I don't see that as a problem in either direction. Trying to teach guys to draw walks is the wrong approach to offence - and JP has never talked about trying to do this. You try to get guys who have good command of the strikezone, and generally speaking, JP has done this.

The moneyball label as it applies to JP is and always was pure smokescreen. JP's only plan is to acquire good players and fit them in the budget he's given - I don't think he's only looking for a certain type of guy, unless we are talking about bench composition, for which he's always favoured scrappy utility infielders (much like he himself was as a ballplayer).

Brandon League's off season conditioning should have had some supervision, the team had a big investment in League and I think letting him overtrain is unacceptable - if a trainer phones two players a day he can check on the entire forty man roster in a month; with video conferencing etc he could monitor techniques.

Maybe you're right and maybe this is an opportunity to gain an edge on the competition, because all the teams basicallly let their players go off for the winter, effectively saying "see you in February". Almost every team has suffered a rash of injuries during the last month, but perhaps the injured Jays are more crucial to the team's success than the average injured guy (but here we again bring in the weak bench trope).

We have McDonald and Smith who play essentially much the same role, and Royce Clayton who I think offers a lot of good veteran presence and poise but isn't really much better than the two previously mentioned infielders.  Jason Phillips is at best a quadruple-A backup at both first base and catcher.  I am about 100% certain that Zaun's legs will fall off  in or before August; he simply can't handle this workload.   Matt Stairs is a decent player, but I am not sure an American League team really needs a pinch hitter.

Yes on the Smith/McDonald/Clayton trio - only two of them are necessary. Phillips's bat would be absolutely awful for a 1B, so if he has to play there more than twice a month it will hurt the team. And yes, Zaun is going to have problems at this rate - let's hope Thigpen is ready by July. Every team needs pinch hitters; there should  be as many bench hitters available as are needed to counter the R/L/R switches employed by managers in regard to relief pitchers. Very few teams have understood that, however, and Toronto is no exception.

I think Speier was asking for too much money - he's decent, but not an elite reliever. Hinske would look good right now, no argument there. But when JP decides you're not his kind of player, you get shown the door. That, and his outspokeness in the media, are his defining characteristics as a general manager.

Third, I look at the minor leagues and I think we have seen a lot of disappointment.

Get used to it. It is the nature of minor league prospects that a very large majority never do anything in the majors of any significance. The Jays, under Ricciardi, have already produced a fair number of big league ballplayers in a short space of time, led by Aaron Hill and Dave Bush of course, but less and of lesser quality than the Ash era produced. Ash's problem was making dumb trades, and, so far, Ricciardi hasn't done that.

Don't hold your breath for minor league help. Thigpen is the only one near ready, so any additional help for this year will have to come in the form of trades.

JP's answer to your criticism will always be: give me more money and I'll get better players. Indeed he's brought in a decent amount of talent when he had the dollars to get it.

You can't pull the plug midseason, and I don't think you can fairly evaluate the results until after 2008. This is still a team on the rise. If after 2008, this team is no closer to a pennant, then I think it will be time for a change.








JayWay - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 04:37 AM EDT (#166381) #
"Halladay is declining, Thomas and Glaus are near the end of their careers"

Troy Glaus is 30-years old, and Roy Halladay is arguably the preeminent pitcher in Major League Baseball right now.
Joanna - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#166388) #

Well, at least the bullpen didn't blow the lead this time.  It's nice to have some variety in what we can complain about.  Rance talked about the offense being at the root of the problem, and I tend to agree with him.  The rally killing double plays and the doubles with two-outs were crushing.  And the bullpen (and Towers) were pitching scared, worried that any mistake is going to blow the game because the offense can't bail them out.  It's a vicious circle and everyone is pressing.  There is a bit of a funk in Jays town.

And the umpiring of this series has been absolutely awful.  Cuzzi seemed to be guessing last night and he gave Towers nothing on the corners, so Towers was always pitching behind.  And him calling Clayton out "swinging", Phillips out (after he fouled a ball off his foot) and Wells out (after he had fouled a ball into the ground) and then changing his mind indicated to me that he had lost complete control of his faculties.

actionjackson - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#166389) #
Aaargh! I'm sick and tired of Accardo being stuck down there with Zambrano et al at the back of the bullpen. Did anyone else see the 97 mph fastballs with late Halladay like movement last night? Plus he's added a nasty split finger and he also has the slider/cutter thingy. This appears to be Gibby's bullpen rotation:

Frasor (CL)
Marcum (SU)
Janssen (SU)
Downs (#%^&'n LOOGY)
Zambrano (LNG REL)
Accardo (LNG REL)
Vermilyea (He's on the team?)

If Vermilyea's going to be on the team, I would like to see him get into some games. Last night starting off the 7th inning would've been perfect. The Jays were down by 3, with Baez and Ray about to pitch the 8th and 9th. Not a huge leverage situation, a good opportunity to get him in there and to save Accardo and move him up in the bullpen rotation for the upcoming series against the Yankees and Red Sox. But no, stupidity prevails. If you're not going to use him, let's go get a legit fourth OF or promote Lydon or Duncan, so that Wells and Rios aren't forced to play every inning or to avoid the silliness of a Lind/(Wells/Rios)/Stairs combo to give them some rest so they don't go on the DL and restore the misery of 2004. If I were in charge, I would want to see a bullpen rotation of:

Frasor (CL until he proves otherwise)
Accardo (SU)
Downs (SU)
Marcum (SU)
Janssen (LNG REL)
Zambrano (LNG REL)
7th guy? We don't need no stinking 7th guy

I don't want to see Janssen or Zambrano past the 7th inning unless it's extra innings. A 6 man bullpen would force Gibby to make smarter, and hopefully longer lasting, decisions with it. I don't want to see Marcum too often past the 7th either because the track record isn't quite there yet. Frasor, Accardo and Downs are very good at getting the opposite type of hitters out (left, left, and right respectively) plus they are the ones with the experience out of the bullpen. Until Janssen demonstrates he can strike major league hitters out and Zambrano demonstrates he can locate the plate, they should not be anywhere near the eighth or ninth inning. Marcum's kind of a swing guy between long relief and set up in my mind until he demonstrates the ability to consistently get lefties out. He was a closer in college, but that was a long time ago and the pool of hitters he's facing is much deeper. Gibbons is the quickest hook in the majors, right up there with Gardenhire and Grady Little according to the 2007 Bill James Handbook. Taking away that 7th relief option and adding a legit backup OF, hopefully will make him pause and properly think through his pitching change decisions instead of using knee-jerk reactions and giving us the three and sometimes four pitcher innings that we occasionally see. I think it's worth a try. So, to sum up Janssen and Marcum down a bit to take off the pressure, Accardo up, Downs de-LOOGY-ized and Zambrano in long relief and mop-up duty. Thankyou, that is all for now.

Gitz - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#166390) #
Troy Glaus is 30-years old, and Roy Halladay is arguably the preeminent pitcher in Major League Baseball right now.

With all due respect to Halladay, the discussion of the best pitcher in majors begins and ends with Johan Santana.
GregJP - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#166391) #
Bring in Vermilyea!!!!!!  Crap, what are you waiting for?
Magpie - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#166392) #
the discussion of the best pitcher in majors begins and ends with Johan Santana.

Seconded, passed, and carried.
Sherrystar - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#166393) #

Wow, if it wasn't for the Indians, the Jays would be in last place!

They say you can't win a playoff spot in April... but you can definitely lose one... and the Jays are doing a good job at it...

Is it just me or does Jason Smith look like a AA hitter at the plate?

actionjackson - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#166395) #
JayWay, you can probably wriggle out of this one by saying "Roy Halladay is arguably the pre-eminent right handed pitcher in the major leagues" or something like that. But right now, there's Johan Santana and then there's everyone else.
Ron - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#166396) #
In 2003 it took 95 wins to win the Wild Card in the AL. In 2004 it was 98 wins and in 2005 and 2006 it took 95 wins.

If the magic number is 95 wins this season, the Jays need to go 87-57 the rest of the way. The Jays have also had a soft schedule so far. They've played the Royals, D-Rays, and O's. 7 of the 9 games vs. the Tigers and Red Sox have been at home. It's way too early to throw in the towel, but if the Jays want to make the playoffs, the ship better turm around quickly.


timpinder - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#166398) #

They just need to hold the fort and go .500 for a month or two while they heal, and they need to get a hit with McGowan or maybe even Purcey or Romero .  Having sparky return as a 4th outfielder, Glaus back at 3B hitting 5th, Ryan healthy and closing again, maybe even League back and a successful McGowan replacing Ohka, and this team would be vastly improved.  A lot of "ifs", but that's baseball.  I predicted before the season that this team would not be going to the playoffs with the #3, #4 and #5 starters they had, and the Jays need for one of their young guns to put it together, and they need to get healthy.  Houston, Oakland and Minnesota are recent examples of teams who started off slow only to come storming back to get into the playoffs.  It's way too early to count the Jays out, but I'll admit it's discouraging and every game counts, another great thing about baseball where the regular season really does matter. 

GregJP - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#166399) #
If they go 0.500 for 2 months they'll be 40-40, which means they'd have to go at least 20 games over 0.500 in the second half to even have a chance.  That ain't happening.

Top be fair to JP, Glaus and Ryan are 2 of the 6 most important players on the team, and the team also misses Johnson at the top of the order regardless of how well Lind is hitting.

I dunno, maybe I'm giving up too early, but I say bring up McGowan, and maybe even Purcey.  Put  McGowan and Janssen in the rotation, get rid of Ohka and maybe even Zambrano. 

Make Accardo/Downs and Frasor your 8th/9th inning guys until Ryan returns.

Let's be honest here, there is no way this present team finishes ahead of the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, or Twins. (not to mention the White Sox, Indians, or A's/angels)



Mylegacy - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#166401) #

Pain makes you numb.

It looks like we're just not good enough to win when: 1) Sparky, possibly the best leadoff man in the game is not playing. 2) Glaus, our number 5 batter is out with injuries. 3) Thomas, our number 4 hitter has a no-show clause in his contract until mid-May. 4) Ryan, our closer and one of the best closers in the game is out injured. 5) League, our "new Speier" has morphed into...who knows?

Five key losses few teams could cope with.

If in Boston; Lugo out,  Lowell out, Drew not all here until mid-May, Papelbon out, Timlin out.

If in NY; Damon out, Giambi out, Rodriguez under performing untill mid-May, Rivera out, Proctor out.

Pain makes you numb BUT lets not jump into Lake Ontario until we're losing with a near full house.

Magpie - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#166402) #
Oh dear. Are they actually listening to me? Be afraid...

I'll just offer this - why Vermilyea? ... The guy I want to see up here is Brian Tallet.

And just like that:

After Sunday's loss, the Blue Jays optioned right-hander Jamie Vermilyea to Triple-A Syracuse and recalled right-hander Brian Tallet from the SkyChiefs.

They're saying Tallet will be used in long relief, which is a mistake. But it's a start.

The moneyball label as it applies to JP is and always was pure smokescreen.


You betcha. Ricciardi is a scout, first and foremost - that, and a guy who worked with and supervised other scouts. He just happened to work with Billy Beane.


Magpie - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#166403) #
Sparky, possibly the best leadoff man in the game

Whoa, whoa, whoa.

He's not the best leadoff man in the division - Johnny Damon and Brian Roberts play there as well, along with whichever of Carl Crawford or Rocco Baldelli is leading off for Tampa on a given day. And then there's Grady Sizemore, Ichiro Suzuki, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Marcus Giles - and looking good so far, Rickie Weeks, Curtis Granderson, and Hanley Ramirez.
timpinder - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#166406) #
Why send Vermilyea down after he pitches three scoreless innings?
AWeb - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#166408) #
You know what would be really nice to see as a Jays fan?  A sustained stretch of winning. I mean, that's obvious, but the Jays haven't had one in so long. And I don't refer here to a few nice series wins in a row, but a genuine prolonged streak.

I was just poking around on baseballreference.com, and did you know Toronto hasn't gone as well as 14-6 in 20 consecutive games at any point since September 2003, when they managed a 15-5 stretch near the end of the year? I actually recall that stretch of games in a good way, which has been a rare thing. In 2004 and 2005, all other teams in the division managed a 20 game stretch at least 2 games better than the Jays best (12-8, 11-9). Last year, neither TB or Balt managed to better a 11- 9 stretch (Toronto maxed out at 13-7), but Boston and NY put up 16-4 and 15-5 (a lot of those for the Yankees last year, actually) streaks.

Toronto managed to win 5 straight games once last year, and never in 2005.  For comparison, NY managed six 5-0 streaks or better in 2006, Boston had 4 with a 12-0 stretch (and the Jays finished in front of them anyway).

I think my point is that they Jays are not going to win the division with a prolonged stretch of above average play, especially since they're 8-9 now. Something like 87-57 sounds very difficult to do, but teams don't go through stretches like that by winning 12 out of 20 the whole time. If they can go, say, 17-3, that means the rest of the games "only" would have to break 70-54, which is 91-92 win pace (something they need to do maintain anyway to contend). I'm not saying a huge streak has to start now, but is almost certainly will have to happen at some point this year if they want to make the playoffs.
ahitisahit - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#166409) #

From what I saw this weekend, the Jays will be finishing 4th in the AL East. If you get 7 walks in a game and you still only score 2 runs, something is wrong.

Winning these 2 games in Boston is mandatory.

actionjackson - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#166410) #
Great Tallet's up, now maybe Downs will be freed from LOOGY prison despite the fact that Frasor and Accardo do a better job against lefties. I sure hope it doesn't lead to Gibbons using Tallet as early LOOGY and Downs as late LOOGY or I'll be very upset. I still say a six man bullpen would force Gibby into being more cautious about changing pitchers. Maybe send Zambrano out to stretch him out in Syracuse and get that 4th OF everyone keeps talking about. But, why would JP change now, he loves that 7 man bullpen. Aaah! *sniffle, sob*
Rob - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#166411) #
Usually I wouldn't care about yet another Red Sox-Yankees game on ESPN, but after Ramirez-Drew-Lowell, I actually said these words out loud:

"You know, I've never seen four in a row before. Doubt it will happen here."
daryn - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#166412) #
Why send Vermilyea down after he pitches three scoreless innings?

I don't know.. maybe Tallet just had a long outing and wouldn't be available to pitch?

We need a "James Vermilyea" we hardly knew you thread...  except that ... umm.. I don't know what we'd say except that we hardly knew him
6-4-3 - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#166414) #

I have nothing to add about today's game or roster moves, but I'd just like to take a moment to document the fact that the current catcher for the New York Yankees is *Josh Phelps*.  Andy Pettitte pitched an inning of relief, so I guess they're going all-out in this one.

ChicagoJaysFan - Sunday, April 22 2007 @ 11:55 PM EDT (#166415) #
Given that 95+ wins is what's required for a playoff spot, it's not only nice to have 13-7's or better, it's mandatory now that our first batch of 20 is under 12-8.  A .600 record (12-8 all the way) gets you 97 wins (assuming a split in the last 2, which is the closest distribution to .600).  For the past few years, I don't think the Jays have had the starting pitching where you could expect wins from each person in the rotation that would make 13-7's or better a possibility.  Right now, they don't have the bullpen to make that a possibility. 

I also think questioning how Gibbons uses his bullpen is misplacing the blame - he could maybe do a little bit better, but at the end of the day, if you're not dealing with major league caliber relievers, you're not going to be able to win major league games.  Right now, the Jays don't have a proven majors-quality closer (19 career saves does not indicate a proven closer to me), a proven majors-quality set-up man (Frasor could be included here, except that he's not a set-up man right now), or even proven majors-quality long men (Jannsen, Marcum haven't had sustained success before in the pen and Zambrano last did it in 2001).  Every single person in the Jays current bullpen, save Downs, is unproven in his current role.  I think you could expect someone to successfully break in one or two guys at a new position, but to have 6 of 7 in a role they've never played before and expect someone to manage it perfectly - I certainly won't blame the manager if that group underperforms.

This offseason, instead of the JP that signs big-name free agents (like the last three offseasons) - we needed the JP that was better at finding unknown or undervalued players to plug in (i.e. finding another Frasor, Zaun, Bordick, etc.).  Unfortunately, that JP never showed (although Jason Smith looks like he might have been a pick-up like the old JP, but his value is negated with MacDonald on the roster).
timpinder - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#166416) #

ChicagoJaysFan,

I just wanted to comment on a couple of your points.  First of all, I agree that it is very hard for the Jays to put together a winning streak with the rotation that they have.  Ohka and Chacin 40% of the time will keep any winning streak in check.  The Jays need for some of their top pitching prospects to come through, and soon.  The offence will come around, I have no doubt about that, and the injuries will heel, but Ohka and Chacin are what they are.

To touch on another comment you made, I don't think you have to worry about J.P. signing any expensive free agents, unless Ted Rogers goes George Steinbrenner on us.  Assuming no trades or signings and reasonable arbitration estimates, the 25-man roster on the 2008 team is already closing in on $100 million.  What you see is what you get with this Jays team and it's system, in my opinion.  That's why the development of players like McGowan, Purcey, Romero, Lind, Thigpen and Adams is so important.

Thomas - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#166417) #
Oh dear. Are they actually listening to me? Be afraid...

To be fair, I posted that they need to drop the 7th reliever or bring up Tallet the day before you did. And since they've not shown any inclination to go with 6 relievers during the last two years, maybe they're listening to me (and just waited until Vermilyea saw action in at least one game).
greenfrog - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 12:38 AM EDT (#166418) #
What a great start for Boston. The bottom of their order (Crisp, Pedroia) has been weak, but they have a fab front five in Lugo/Youk/Ortiz/Manny/Drew. Their starting pitching is excellent. They may have the best closer in baseball. I think the biggest risk for Boston is injury. If they lose two or more front-line players, they could get exposed. But right now they're flying high.

The Jays' offense will pick up, but I think Boston's rotation will prevent the Jays from keeping up. Halladay/Burnett/Chacin/Ohka just can't match Schilling/Beckett/Dice-K/Wakefield, week after week. Strange things can happen over the course of a season, but it seems pretty clear that we're outclassed at the moment.
 
Lee - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#166435) #

Robert,

Adam Lind stands precisely where the coaches tell him too. He's not there to lead, simply to hit and catch the ball.

I believe what the original poster meant was that the coaches were demonstrating a "lack of leadersip" by not telling him to stand in the right place. I don't think leadership is quite the right word to use there, but that's how I read it.

The moneyball label as it applies to JP is and always was pure smokescreen. JP's only plan is to acquire good players and fit them in the budget he's given

Which is, basically, the essence of "Moneyball" - find players whose best attributes are undervalued, hence building the best team under a given budget. The continued caricature of "Moneyball" as "OBP-ball" is absolutely baffling.

Yes on the Smith/McDonald/Clayton trio - only two of them are necessary.

Actually, I would argue that only one of those three, plus a SS who is actually good at baseball, is necessary.

Every team needs pinch hitters

Not really. Certainly not as much as they need realistic options for a fourth OF or backup 1B/3B on the bench, which are things that we DON'T have because of carrying the redundant Smith/McDonald combo and the mostly useless Stairs.

Hinske would look good right now, no argument there. But when JP decides you're not his kind of player, you get shown the door.

Any GM who who would get rid of a player that is useful and helpful to the team because he is "not his kind of player" strikes me as arrogant and grossly incompetent.

Ash's problem was making dumb trades, and, so far, Ricciardi hasn't done that.

This can be easily demonstrated to be false. Just because it was mentioned above, I'll point out that giving Hinske away to the Red Sox for a bag of balls was not terribly bright.

Lee - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#166437) #

Halladay/Burnett/Chacin/Ohka just can't match Schilling/Beckett/Dice-K/Wakefield

I don't really see why not. Assuming Halladay is healthy, he is certainly a better pitcher than Schill at this point in their careers. Beckett didn't exactly dominate in his first year in the AL, an I've never bought into the hype over him; again, assuming Burnett is fully right, I'd take him over Beckett. Chacin and Ohka are nothing special, but neither is Wakefield, and Matsuzaka is unproven against ML-calibre (and especially AL) lineups.

greenfrog - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#166438) #
2007 stats (W-L, IP, ERA):

Schilling: 2-1, 26.0, 3.81
Beckett: 4-0, 24.2, 2.55
Dice-K: 2-2, 27.0, 4.00
Wakefield: 2-1, 20.0, 1.35

Halladay: 2-0, 30.1, 2.37
Burnett: 1-1, 21.0, 5.57
Chacin: 2-1, 22.0, 5.32
Ohka, 0-2, 16.2, 7.02

Pick your rotation. I left out peripheral stats such as K:BB, which are tilted heavily in favour of Boston.
actionjackson - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#166441) #
greenfrog, small sample size.
actionjackson - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#166442) #
I would still take Boston's rotation over the current Jays rotation, but I think the current Jays rotation is most definitely subject to change.
ChicagoJaysFan - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#166444) #
Overbay is ill with the flu and will miss today's game.

I know it is still very early, but seeing as none of Reed Johnson, League, or Ryan are scheduled to come back anytime soon and we're suffering severely without them (our offense and bullpen have both nosedived in the wake of these injuries), at one point does JP start to make a deal to address these weaknesses?  Considering that right now, we need to play at a .605 pace for the rest of the season to have a shot at the playoffs, I hate to say it, but I think we're at a point right now where a move is necessary.  Something as simple as a 1-3 stretch over these next 4 games against the Yanks and Sox means that the Jays would have to play .615 the rest of the way.   Not much of a point to that except that any prolonging of this inadequate line-up and the Jays have to play that much better the rest of the way.

Rob - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#166446) #
Why send Vermilyea down after he pitches three scoreless innings?

I missed his appearance, but MLB.TV shows me that the O's were hitting him around pretty hard. He was fortunate to get through the sixth without giving up a run.

Not that three innings one way or the other should determine roster moves, but the question could also be phrased as "Why keep Vermilyea up when he wasn't fooling anyone?"
greenfrog - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#166448) #
greenfrog, small sample size.

I know. Still, which rotation would you rather have?
ChicagoJaysFan - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#166452) #
Accardo coming in made me think back to the Hillenbrand trade.  I know sample size is small, but nobody seems to have done well with that trade.  Accardo is just barely in the Jays pen, Chulk did worse with the Giants than he was with the Jays (which is saying a lot), and Hillenbrand continued his habit of late-season crashes and is often to an uncharacteristically horrid start this season.
VBF - Monday, April 23 2007 @ 11:47 PM EDT (#166453) #

I think we're at a point right now where a move is necessary. 

I'm not sure if this is something we're likely to see. Lind is an adequate and possibly better replacement for Reed Johnson. The bench remains unchanged, and if JP wasn't willing to improve it before the injuries, I don't see how he would now. Glaus will be coming back and it is not unreasonable to expect above average production out of this lineup. The only real loss is the bullpen. But with the cost of bullpen help relatively high (see what the O's paid for their pen) and the performance of bullpen help relatively volatile, I think it may be in the best interest of the Jays to stand pat in that particular regard.

Hinske will not be a saviour of this team, but he's probably as ideal as it gets right now without selling a good piece of the farm for a unimpressive, quick fix. That said, if you could pull off a deal for Lidge where we essentially pay peanuts, please give it a shot.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, April 24 2007 @ 12:08 PM EDT (#166481) #
I don't know if the Jays could make much of a move if they wanted to. Who's going to give up a quality reliever at this point in the season? I don't think anyone's thrown in the towel just yet, and you don't usually see salary dumps at this point in the season. If the Jays wanted an experienced, quality reliever, they'd have to pay through the nose, unless there's some team with an overabundance of relievers and a powerful hankering for John McDonald.
Lee - Tuesday, April 24 2007 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#166494) #

Pick your rotation. I left out peripheral stats such as K:BB, which are tilted heavily in favour of Boston.

These stats are over such a small number of IP as to be completely worthless. Look at Beckett and Burnett over their careers; their numbers are very similar. Look at last season, the first for both pitchers in the AL; admittedly, Burnett pitched fewer innings due to injury, but still had the much better year by almost any measure. I can see absolutely no reasonable argument that Beckett is a better pitcher than Burnett, which means that the Jays' top two are better than Boston's. Sure, I'd probably rather have Matsuzaka/Wakefield than Chacin/Ohka, but I don't think it's nearly as big of a difference as most people are assuming it will be. Certainly, the two rotations are AT LEAST very comparable.

ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, April 24 2007 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#166508) #
Lind is an adequate and possibly better replacement for Reed Johnson.

I don't think the marginal benefit of having Lind in the offense is greater than that of Reed Johnson.  If I was creating a roster from scratch, I would have Lind higher on my list that Reed, but given the rest of the Jays line-up, I think that Reed fills a much more vacant role (the leadoff spot) than Lind does (mid-bottom of the order big swinger).  Lind does provide the lefty-bat, which is nice, but I think the team currently needs guys like Reed that can get on base and can move once they're on there more than they need guys like Lind right now.  I know Lind has looked pretty good so far at getting on base (.400+ OBP last year), but I'll take Reed's career .350ish OBP as an indication that he's a better table-setter than Lind.

As far as possible acquisitions, because I know it's easy to just say pick someone up without mentioning a possible pater, I'd say Seattle is pretty much already out of it and just placed Hernandez on the disabled list.  Someone like Reitsma, Putz, or Mateo may be able to be had for some of the Jays starting pitching prospects.  I agree, we may pay a steep price in such a transaction, but in my mind our alternative is to watch our season waste away because of inaction - I consider that a far steeper price.
actionjackson - Tuesday, April 24 2007 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#166516) #
I still think the bullpen is OK as is, but the bench gives me the shivers. I think the cost on the trade market for any pitcher whose arm is still attached to his body is greater than the cost for a solid bench player, and I think the need for a solid 4th OF who can play all three spots outweighs the need for another bullpen arm at this particular point. Another freakin' injury down there will have me singing a different tune though, particularly if it involves Frasor, Accardo, Downs, Marcum or Janssen. The depth down there is OK for now, but an injury to one of those five will absolutely force a move. Think of the old shoestring analogy: another injury could snap it.
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