Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 16 August 2007: Inherited Runners

16 August 2007: Inherited Runners

One of these days - maybe tonight, who knows? - Scott Downs is going to come into a game with runners on base. And a graphic will go up on the screen, obliging Jamie and his amigo de soir (that's a mixed something) to make some sort of comment to the effect that Downs has allowed just 6 of 30 inherited runners to score this season.

Well, what does that actually mean, anyway? Should we be impressed? After all, if Downs walks the hitter and is then replaced by Casey Janssen, he didn't allow anyone to score.

Let's have a look at today's Game Notes. I'm not at the ball park tonight, but the Game Notes for every team are available right here at major league baseball's web site. You will note that some teams do this better than others. Anyway, the Jays notes always include this information for the current members of the bullpen crew. As of today, the Inherited Runners - Runners Scored numbers look like this:

Pitcher    Inherited Runners     Scored
Accardo         19                  1
Downs           30                  6
Frasor          21                  7
Janssen         31                 10
League           6                  3
Tallet          29                 12
Wolfe           18                  9

Yes, that's right. The Jays notes still have League in the bullpen and Towers (who has inherited some runners this season, and is down in the bullpen these days) completely out of sight.

Anyway, that adds up to 154 inherited runners, 48 of whom (31%) have scored.

Interesting, but I'm not sure how useful. So let's supplement it. What I have is how many runners each starting pitcher left on base when he was removed from the game. And how many of them scored.

Starter    Runners  Scored   Pct.
Burnett       11      5      .455
Chacin         4      3      .750
Halladay      10      5      .500
Litsch         7      3      .439
Marcum         8      2      .250
McGowan        6      0      .000
Ohka          12      7      .583
Taubenheim     2      2     1.000
Towers        14      7      .500
Zambrano       3      0      .000

TOTAL         75     34      .453

Halladay and Towers, who have been at the opposite ends of the scale when it came to Run Support, meet here closer to the middle.

And Dustin McGowan is leading a charmed life...

Anyway, here are the actual occasions when a starter turned baserunners over to the bullpen - how many scored and which reliever(s) were involved.

Starter     Date   Opponent Result Inning Inherited Runners  Reliever(s)
                                             Left    Scored    
Burnett     Apr. 4   @DET   L 10-9    3         3       3    Marcum
Ohka        Apr. 7   @TB    W 8-5     5         2       0    Downs-Marcum
Towers      Apr. 10   KC    L 6-3     6         1       1    Downs
Chacin      Apr. 11   KC    W 7-4     6         1       1    Janssen
Burnett     Apr. 14   DET   L 10-7    6         1       0    Janssen
Chacin      Apr. 17   BOS   W 2-1     7         1       0    Janssen
Ohka        Apr. 18   BOS   L 4-1     7         1       1    Zambrano
Halladay    Apr. 19   BOS   L 5-3     8         1       1    Marcum
Towers      Apr. 21  @BAL   L 5-2     6         2       1    Accardo
Chacin      Apr. 22  @BAL   L 7-3     5         2       2    Zambrano
Ohka        Apr. 23  @BOS   W 7-3     6         1       1    Janssen (unearned)
Towers      Apr. 27   TEX   L 5-3     5         1       0    Tallet
Zambrano    May. 2   @CLE   L 7-6     3         3       0    Towers
Ohka        May. 4   @TEX   L 7-1     8         2       1    Tallet
Halladay    May. 5   @TEX   L 11-4    6         2       2    Towers
Burnett     May. 6   @TEX   L 3-2     8         1       0    Downs
Ohka        May. 9    BOS   L 9-3     5         2       0    Tallet
Burnett     May. 11   TB    W 5-1     7         1       0    Janssen
Litsch      May. 15   BAL   W 2-1     9         1       0    Accardo
McGowan     May. 18  @PHI   L 5-3     5         1       0    Tallet
Ohka        May. 26  @MIN   W 9-8     8         1       1    Janssen
Litsch      May. 30   NYY   L 10-5    1         1       0    Tallet
Burnett     Jun. 1    CWS   L 3-0     8         1       0    Downs-Wolfe
Halladay    Jun. 5    TB    W12-11    4         2       1    Wolfe
Ohka        Jun. 6    TB    L 6-2     4         3       3    Tallet
Marcum      Jun. 9   @LAD   W 1-0     7         2       0    Downs
Burnett     Jun. 12  @SF    L 3-2     5         1       0    Frasor
McGowan     Jun. 19   LAD   L10-1     2         2       0    DeJong
Taubenheim  Jun. 23   COL   W11-6     6         2       2    Wolfe
Marcum      Jun. 26  @MIN   L 2-1     9         1       0    Downs-Janssen
Towers      Jun. 27  @MIN   W 5-4     7         1       1    Downs-Wolfe
Burnett     Jun. 28  @MIN   L 8-5     5         2       2    Frasor
Marcum      Jul. 1   @SEA   L 2-1     7         1       0    Downs
Halladay    Jul. 6    CLE   W 8-6     6         1       0    Downs
Marcum      Jul. 7    CLE   L 9-4     4         1       1    Wolfe
Towers      Jul. 8    CLE   W 1-0     9         1       0    Downs-Accardo
Towers      Jul. 16  @NYY   L 6-4     6         1       0    Downs
Marcum      Jul. 18  @NYY   L 6-1     7         1       1    Downs-League
Litsch      Jul. 20   SEA   L 4-2     5         2       0    Wolfe
Towers      Jul. 21   SEA   W 1-0     7         2       0    Janssen
McGowan     Jul. 24   MIN   W 7-0     8         1       0    Janssen
Towers      Jul. 27  @CWS   L 3-4     6         2       2    Tallet
Towers      Aug. 1   @TB    L 2-6     6         2       1    League
Halladay    Aug. 3    TEX   W 6-4     7         2       1    Janssen
McGowan     Aug. 5    TEX   W 4-1     9         1       0    Accardo
Litsch      Aug. 6    NYY   L 4-5     6         2       2    Downs
Towers      Aug. 7    NYY   L 2-9     6         1       1    Tallet
Marcum      Aug. 10  @KC    W 2-1     7         1       0    Janssen
McGowan     Aug. 11  @KC    L 1-4     7         1       0    Tallet
Burnett     Aug. 12  @KC    W 4-1     8         1       0    Wolfe-Downs
Litsch      Aug. 13  @KC    L 2-6     7         1       1    Tallet
Marcum      Aug. 15   LAA   W 2-1     8         1       0    Janssen

I don't really think any of this is particularly significant. I was just curious.

Posted by Magpie on Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 04:10 PM EDT.

16 August 2007: Inherited Runners | 12 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Mick Doherty - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#173184) #

This may be an idiot question, but is there anything recorded that tracks the type of inherited runner?

I mean, if Joe Setup comes in four straight days with runners on second and/or third and less than two outs, that seems a bit less manageable than, say, Ted Closer coming in those same four days with two outs and a runner on first.

Extreme examples, sure, but the various gradations of where the runner(s) are and how many are out when they are inherited really makes a difference, I'd think.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#173186) #

Baseball Prospectus tracks these issues well, with their "Starting Pitcher Bullpen Support" stat.

zeppelinkm - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#173212) #

Mick, I think that's a great question.

I wonder if it would be possible to figure out the league average for allowing inherited runners to score in every conceivable situation (runner on 1st, 2 outs, runner on 1st, 1 out, etc, runner on 3rd, 0 outs, etc etc), and then from this you could see if a pitcher is above or below average in each situation, then an overall rating could be applied to see if he's better or worse then average on a whole (but maybe worse in high pressure, etc).

I think something like this could be useful, but would be a hell of a lot of work to figure out. Because honestly, a good reliever worth his weight should hardly ever allow a runner to score from 1st with 1 or 2 outs, whereas only the truly great ones will weasel their way out of those 2nd and 3rd with nobody out situations with any kind of regularity.

Mike Green - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#173214) #

For relievers, a significant part of it is win expectancy. For instance, coming on with runners on first and third and nobody out with a 2 run lead in the eighth is completely different from coming on with runners on first and third and nobody out but in a tie game in the eighth. A sac fly and a double play is a terrific result in the first situation but obviously less so in the second. Pitching patterns and defensive positioning reflect this reality and skew the results.

TimberLee - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#173215) #

I pay about as much attention to the Inherited Runners stats as I do to the Clutch Hitting numbers. Experience has led me to the general conclusion that good relief pitchers are better than not-so-good ones, and they are probably better in pretty well every situation one can dream up to track statistically. Even over a full season, there are so many factors that could generally be described as "luck" (to varying degrees) that I'm not convinced that it's worth spending much time studying "runners stranded" and other similar stats. Except in January, of course, which is the time to read absolutely anything about baseball.

The last time I read much about career Clutch Hitting (and try to define that to everyone's satisfaction), I reached the conclusion that the good hitters hit better than the not-so-good hitters, most of the time.

ayjackson - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#173216) #

I'll post this here, seeing as it is a "This Day In Baseball" item. Rotoworld beleives that the Tigers have called up Cameron Maybin and DFA'd Craig Munroe. This is definitely the fast track for Maybin and makes for an interesting comparison to our Travis Snider. Maybin is a year ahead of Snider (20 versus 19). Both spent their age 19 seasons in the Midwest League (low A ball). Maybin's OPS for the year was .844 and Snider's so far is .884. Snider brings a little more pop and Maybin brings the SB. Maybin is likely a better outfielder too.

This year, Maybin had about 300 ABs in the FSL showing little difficulty in maintaining his offensive production (OPS .879). He then spent one week in AA, before promotion to the bigs.

I wonder if Snider and the Jays are taking note of Maybin's Age-20 season.

ayjackson - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#173221) #

In other news, Carlos Zambrano has apparently resigned for 5 years and $91.5 million. That's Zito at $18m per and Zambrano at $18.3m per. I guess it's dependent on health, but there's no way a healthy Burnett stays with the Jays past next season for $12m per. I think that a trade to Washington could be a possibility. Burnett lives in the area and the Nats are moving into their new digs next season. Too bad the Nats have little of interest to the Jays.

Magpie - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#173223) #

I pay about as much attention to the Inherited Runners stats as I do to the Clutch Hitting numbers.

You're generally wise to do so. My own interest here was really the starting pitchers - were any of them catching a break, were any of them getting let down by the side.

Mike Green - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#173224) #

Here's more on the Maybin promotion. He's going to strike out a lot, but still...He hits the ball very, very hard and runs like the wind.

In theory, Delmon Young was a better prospect. In practice, I prefer Maybin. He'll presumably be a leftfielder for a year or two, before switching places with Granderson.

paulf - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#173247) #

Exploratory surgery for Chacin, the forgotten man.

Chuck - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#173251) #

I guess it's dependent on health, but there's no way a healthy Burnett stays with the Jays past next season for $12m per.

You may be right, but Zito and Zambrano are locks for 200 IP per year. With Burnett, what can you count on these days? 130? On a prorated basis, the Z's getting $18M is akin to Burnett getting $10-12M. Anyone paying for a 200 IP season from Burnett is asking for a minor miracle.

halejon - Monday, August 20 2007 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#173333) #

Baseball Prospectus' "Inherited Runs Prevented" does pretty much that- it takes the league average for runs scored based on the situation the pitcher came into from a run expectancy chart, and compares to how many actually did score. I assume you get no credit if you don't finish the inning, though- because Scott Downs has a IRP of -1, even though he's only allowed 5 inherited runners to score this season.

16 August 2007: Inherited Runners | 12 comments | Create New Account

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