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Last night's loss to Kelvim Escobar was more than a reminder about the pitcher that management let leave Toronto while the team pursued and eventually signed Miguel Batista. Batista signed for $2 million a year less than Escobar; money which, in hindsight at least, would have been far better spent keeping Escobar in Toronto. Last night's loss also saw Escobar and Francisco Rodriguez not allow a double to Blue Jays batters. Toronto had doubled in the team's previous 32 games, which set a new franchise record. Now that it’s over, let’s take a closer look at a streak which provided some excitement and intrigue for Jays fans during the dog days of an August spent on the outskirts of the playoff race.



The streak of 32 games broke the old mark of 31 games, which was set from April 11 to May 14, 2004. The 31 game streak was 2 more than the previous record of 29, which was set twice, once in 1987 (August 14-September 15) and again in 1990 (July 27-August 25). This year's streak of 32 games, which began on July 22 and lasted through August 25, was particularly impressive as the Blue Jays doubled 87 times during the streak, an average of 2.72 times a game. During the streak of 31 games the team doubled only 69 times, for an average of 2.23 times a game. During the 1990 streak the team doubled 1.83 times a game and during the 1987 streak it was 2.03 times a game. Not only did the Jays set a new franchise mark, but they were also doubling with a frequency rarely seen in such streaks.

So, how did Toronto do during the double streak? Did it correspond with team success? It did somewhat, as the Jays went 18-14 during the 32 games, sweeping Minnesota and Texas at home, but being swept by the A's at the Rogers Centre. However, there is not a strong correlation at all. During the streak the team's batting line, over exactly 1,200 plate appearances, was .260/.323/.411 for an OPS of .734. After the July 21 game against Seattle Toronto had a team OPS of .750, with a batting line of .258/.326/.424. By August 25 Toronto's team OPS had dropped to .746, with a batting line of .259/.325/.421. Interesting, the team's OPS actually decreased while the streak was active. Not surprisingly, the culprit was the road trip to Chicago and Tampa Bay; a six game spell that saw the team's OPS drop from .757 to .748. Although it would rise again to .755, it would fall during the home series against Anaheim and Baltimore and has not gone above .750 since.

During the streak the Jays had a memorable game with 9 doubles on August 8th against the New York Yankees and handed Wang the worst start of his career. They also had  a game with 7 doubles (August 25), two games with 5 doubles (August 5, August 12), 5 games with 4 doubles (July 24, July 25, August 4, August 13, August 20), 4 games with 3 doubles (July 27, July 30, July 31, August 24), 10 games with 2 doubles (July 29, August 3, August 6, August 10, August 11, August 17, August 18, August 21, August 22, August 23) and 9 games with a single double (July 22, July 23, July 28, August 1, August 7, August 14, August 15, August 16, August 19). In conclusion, in 71.88% of the games during the streak the Jays had more than one double. It wasn’t a cheap streak that continued due to many meaningless doubles against poor pitchers in the eighth inning of games that have been all but decided.

Who was the catalyst of this spell of Toronto two-baggers? Well, four Blue Jays reached double digit doubles during this streak. Take a moment and try to guess who they might be.

The answer: Vernon Wells, Matt Stairs, Lyle Overbay and Frank Thomas.

And who hit the most doubles? Matt Stairs with 12. Wells, Overbay and Thomas each had 11. These four batters combined for 45 of the team's 87 doubles during the streak, which is 51.7%. Others who contributed to the streak were: Aaron Hill (9), Alex Rios (8), Gregg Zaun (8), Reed Johnson (6), John McDonald (5), Troy Glaus (3), Rey Olmedo (2) and Curtis Thigpen (1).

As mentioned above, there were 9 games during which the Jays only hit one double. Which batters hit the timely doubles in those games to continue the streak? Wells, Hill and Stairs each hit a solo double twice and the other 3 timely doubles were hit by Rios, Thomas and Olmedo. Olmedo may have made a small overall contribution to the total, but his double on August 16 in the bottom of the sixth inning was one of the most important of the streak. The last game in which the team hit only one double was on August 19 and in that game V-Dub came through in the clutch with a two-bagger in the fourth.

Actually, there weren't too many games during which the streak was in serious jeopardy. Of the 9 games in which the Jays hit only one double it was only in two games that the double came later than the fifth inning. The other besides Olmedo's aforementioned double was a (then) meaningless double by Frank Thomas on August 7 in the bottom of the 7th in a game the Jays were losing 7-0 to the Yankees. Also, of the 10 games in which the Jays hit 2 doubles, only twice did the first of those two doubles come later than the fifth inning, and in both games (August 10, August 22) it was hit in the sixth. In 5 of the 10 games the first double came in the first or second inning. Of the 13 games in which the team hit more than 2 doubles, in no game did they record their first double later than the fifth inning and in 8 of the 13 it came in the first or the second inning. Therefore, the latest during a game that Toronto hit its first double was the seventh inning on August 7 and only three other times did it come during the sixth inning (August 10, August 16, August 22).

So, how close were the Jays to tying the MLB record? Well, I don't know for sure. But the record from 1960 onwards (and I can't see how this wouldn't be the all-time record) is a ridiculous 75 games. That record was set by the Cleveland Indians from May 30 to August 19, 1996. That broke the previous record of 42 by a whopping 78.57%. The previous record was held by the Cardinals, set from September 23, 1986 to May 13, 1987. Unfortunately, Toronto's streak isn't even the longest set this year, as the Giants have a streak of 38 games that is still active. It began on July 20, two days before Toronto's did.

Here are the five longest streaks of consecutive games with at least 1 double in MLB, from 1960 onwards.

75 - Cleveland Indians - May 30, 1996 to August 19, 1996

51 - Atlanta Braves - July 1, 1999 to August 25, 1999

46 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays - July 12, 2001 to April 2, 2002

43 - Cleveland Indians - September 17, 2005 to May 3, 2006

42 - St. Lous Cardinals - September 23, 1986 to May 13, 1987.

Toronto's 32 gamer is tied for the 28th longest streak in baseball history from 1960 onwards. However, Toronto's rate of 2.72 doubles a game during the streak is the best rate of any of the 50 longest streaks between 1960-2007. It is also the fourth best rate among the longest 100 streaks in that time span, only falling short of the rate set by 3 27-game streaks. Philadelphia's 79 doubles during their 27 game streak from July 1 to August 2, 2007 set the pace with a rate of 2.93 doubles a game. Cleveland amassed 78 doubles from June 10 to July 12, 1994 for a rate of 2.88 doubles a game. Finally, Toronto's 27 game streak from July 16 to August 12, 1995 equaled 2.74 doubles a game.

Although the Jays may not match the Indians in terms of their ability to set doubles streaks, Toronto maximizes the doubles during the streak like few teams can. As this proves, Toronto’s streak may not be the longest in baseball history, or even close to the longest in baseball history, but it a well-deserved accomplishment, both in terms of frequency of doubles during the streak, as well as the timing of the doubles.

Double, Double, Toil and Trouble (and Repeat 32 Times) | 14 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Thomas - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#173591) #
Apologies for the font size. I didn't know how to fix it.
Dave Till - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#173592) #
I can't blame the Jays for not re-signing Escobar. During the latter part of his seven-year stay with the Jays, he had experienced arm problems while starting games, leading the Jays to wonder whether he could ever be a rotation starter. He had also melted down spectacularly as a closer, which ruled him out for that role.

The moral, I guess, is that pitchers are unpredictable.

FanfromTheIsland - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#173596) #
Great streak, though I would much prefer a winning one.
Mick Doherty - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#173599) #

I couldn't resist looking ... it turns out that the Jays, over that 32-game span, were 18-14 (if I counted correctly) ... slightly better than their overall mark on the year, but not Pennant Winning better.

The moral here? Doubles are Good, I guess. But Not the Be-All, End-All.

Geoff - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#173603) #
I guess nobody reached double-digit double double games ( a two-digit total of games with two two-baggers) during the streak.

Who would be the leader of multi-double games?

Thomas - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#173605) #
Who would be the leader of multi-double games?

I can answer that question for you tomorrow morning, if you wish, once I have access to my notes again.

Mick, it seems you couldn't resist looking, but could resist reading the article. :)
actionjackson - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#173609) #
Seeing as the season was probably over after the 8 games post-All-Star break in Boston and New York and definitely over after the most recent disastrous home-stand, what are people's thoughts on what should take place in the off-season? I know JP has repeatedly and vociferously said he's bringing the same team back next year, but I can't see the logic in that, given that a) this is the AL East and Boston and New York are rather frighteningly assembling a lot of quality young talent and already have superior major league talent bases to the Jays, both in quality and depth and b) this team underachieved this year as its lack of depth was excruciating at times i.e. Aaron Hill occasionally hitting 5th with four suspect hitters behind him etc. I just don't see how you can justify "rewarding" (and in essence "punishing" the ticket buying public) the players by bringing them all back after such a disappointing season. I don't see how you can "stand pat" when any casual baseball observer can see 1) a gaping black hole at shortstop again (no more band-aids please) 2) the need for a catcher who can throw out runners 3) the need for a backup plan for Troy Glaus, in case he comes back on bad pins again and for when he leaves the team and 4) one outfield question mark not including CF. That's a heck of a lot of issues for a team whose GM seems content to sit back and cool his heels over the winter.

I love Johnny Mac... as a backup and you may not be able to convince him to come back as a backup. Curtis Thigpen, more from observation than data, appears to have the ability and footwork to throw runners out, but his bat, perhaps due to rust, doesn't seem ready for prime time yet, while Zaun has great difficulty throwing runners out and his bat has declined this year. Obviously, the broken hand has played a part in both areas. I love Troy Glaus, but I can't stand to watch another year of him courageously battling through the season on one leg and there will come a time when he's not here anymore and Kevin Ahrens is still quite a ways off. I don't pretend to know how much one could've gotten for Reed Johnson this past offseason, but I'll venture a guess it was more than what you'll be able to get for him this offseason and perhaps more than you'll ever be able to get for him again. That's why they call them "career years". As for Adam Lind, he certainly came back to earth with a thud this year, but it could just be part of the learning curve. His defense looked better than advertised. His baserunning however, well let's not go there OK? As for Vernon Wells, I'm confident that he'll either be a league average hitter or a superstar hitter next year and while I would prefer the superstar, his superior defense and baserunning make him a very good CF. Is he worth $126 million? don't know, but I feel confident that any ball hit in his general area will be caught and that he won't get thrown out on the bases very often. I think Overbay can bounce back, provided he's not hitting #2 anymore, because he forces himself to pull the ball and yet he's a gap-to-gap hitter. Either bat him second and tell him to use his normal swing or hit him lower in the order and let him restore that 40 double/ 20 homer stroke.

So, ladies and gents, what we have here is a quandary, a GM who says there are no holes and there's no need to upgrade anywhere and myself and others who say that this team is significantly more than one player away from being a serious threat to the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox and that those two behemoths are constantly upgrading and tinkering, both on the minor league level and with big time free agents, so standing pat will guarantee yet another 3rd (or 4th) place finish. In the NL Central, standing pat might make sense, but in the AL East I think it's a death knell. The only player on the current roster who needs to be traded is Jason Frasor, unless of course Gibby gets fired in the offseason, but I don't think he's the one whose job should be on the line. There are a lot of players who are virtually untradeable as a result of this year's struggles. So, put your GM thinking caps on. What do you think it will take to at bare minimum get a shortstop and a better primary or secondary catcher option than what is currently here? Or do you agree with JP that we should sit back and bring this bunch back? I think the proof that changes are needed comes from the fact that JP kept saying: "Wait till I get all my guys back" and they did come back and frankly they weren't a heck of a lot better than the M*A*S*H unit that battled through the first half of the season. But, I could be an idiot.

AWeb - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#173612) #
I don't know who in particular to target, but I'd be willing to see one or more of the young pitchers (Marcum, Mcgowan, Litsch, Accardo, Janssen, League, Chacin) be traded to get a good (and reasonably young) shortstop. Most of us have seen the free agent SS prospects this offseason, and there's no significant upgrade in sight (upgrade yes, above average SS, not really). Possible thoughts : Brendan Harris in Tampa, who just turned 27, and plays for a team in need, as usual, of pitching. Someone like Jimmy Rollins might take a few of the pitchers (and may not be available at any price), but again, Philly can spare the offense, and needs the pitching. The pitching might be replacable, at least mostly, on the free agent market.

The same team will generally give you the same results. What a team with an age profile like Toronto generally won't do is suddenly make a large improvement, or at least that's my impression. The position players of Toronto appear to me to be in one of the toughest places for a GM, in that they don't have much depth, and the starters don't appear to present a massive upside either. Hard to make a trade, and making plans based on hoping for the best gets you ripped for being lackadasical (like, say, here).


CaramonLS - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#173614) #
As for starters, I think we need 1 more.  Litsch isn't ready yet, and at best he should be a backup option heading into next season while playing in AAA.

Who you ask?  Incentive laden 1-yr contract for Bartolo Colon.  You'll probably be giving him a significant base Salary (say 5 + bonuses, similar to Gagne), but it would be high risk, very high reward for the former Ace/Cy Young winner.  If he pans out, you're looking at one of the better rotations in the AL, all the way through.  Litsch is a decent backup plan for Burnett's inevitable injury woes.  Out of the playoffs?  You can trade Bartolo for a bucket of prospects at the deadline (which JP seems to have a lot of trouble doing).

The thing that worries me is the offense.  Right handed heavy and not getting any younger.  One of following positions CF, RF, 3B, DH  - should be shown the door, and replaced with a left handed bat - trading Overbay and putting a lefty power bat in there at 1B is simply 3 steps forward, 2 steps back IMHO.  We need a lot more balance in the batting order.  Reed Johnson should also be platooning with Stairs.  You WILL NOT find better production this off season than a Reed/Stairs Platoon next year.  You just wont.  Reed has a 1099 OPS vs. lefties and Stairs has a .924 vs righties.

BigTimeRoyalsFan - Monday, August 27 2007 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#173615) #
what are people's thoughts on what should take place in the off-season?

Here is what I would do to build the 2008 Blue Jays. Obviously to be effective all objectives need to be taken care of. It will involve trading high on people, which JP never does, so I hope that doesn't bother people. Most of it involves trying to sway the balance a little bit so that the team won't field 8 out of 9 guys on a nightly basis who can not hit RHP. Please don't comment on the unrealistic nature of my ideas, and just as to whether or not you think the ideas are good.

1)Trade Troy Glaus, Sign Mike Lowell - Lowell will be a FA who commands similar $s to what Troy is making now. So what you are trying to do here is not only improve your defense, but add a bat that can actually hit RHP. Lowell over his career has done that better than Vernon and Rios (our 2 "best" hitters?). Glaus is atrocious at it this year, and while I recognize over his career he isn't much different than Lowell vs RHP, there's more to it than that. I think it's important to get his big, lumbering body out of the lineup, especially when your DH is Frank Thomas. That Lowell plays great D is just the cherry. Let's see what sending Troy to a team desperate for a "big bat" can do for it. Package him with any of Litsch, Downs, Frasor, Lind, Johnson, Chacin and send some prospects our way.

2)Sign Kaz Matsui - It's becoming clear to me that the easiest way for this team to improve is to sign a FA 2b and move Hill over SS, whether or not we like the idea. First off, while I think Hill is a good defender, I think he is a bit overrated round these parts. I feel like he had an excellent start but has tailed off a bit recently, and sometimes he has a tendency to let an easy one confuse him. Matsui has the kind of speed this team desperately needs, imo. He's the kind of guy that once he gets on base is a terror, a threat to turn every single into a double - the perfect lead off hitter. And before anyone tells me his .330 OBP isn't suited for the lead off spot, I remind people of Devon White, and guys like Jimmy Rollins who are currently sprinkled around the majors. There are still some managers/GMs who still believe in speed, and not just OBP. I know many of you despise the steal and whatnot, but even from those people I have heard that an 80% success rate is required to make it effective. Well, this guy over his career is about 90% effective, and has stolen 28 bases and been caught twice this year. Most importantly, he's a switch hitter who hits RHP better than LHP (as opposed to our "left handed bat" of Zaun, who over the last 2 seasons hasn't hit RHP for crap) He also seems to play above average defense (from the stats), but I can't comment on that with any certainty.

3)Try Lind in LF - With Matsui now there at the top of the order, we really don't need Johnson anymore. While I would be fine with at least a platoon, people need to realize he is hitting .215/.269/.252 vs RHP which is just unacceptable for someone you consistently roll out in the #1 spot. If the LF spot is going to be batting lower in the order, I'll take the guy who "struggled" adjusting to major league pitching to the tune of .244/.285/.426 vs RHP. That .426 shows potential to me, as a left handed bat hitting down in the bottom of our order. I have no problem keeping Reed around, but if he can be packaged with any of the aformentioned players from 1), I would consider getting back anything in return.

Those are the 3 main spots I fix the lineup. I am fine with Zaun as the everyday catcher, assuming those other things are done. Another thing to consider is to use Lind as trade bait with the others, and go after FA Bobby Abreu. His LH bat, while expensive, would be the perfect middle of the order bat to complement Wells and Rios for the next few years. I wonder if trading Glaus with Lind/Litsch/Downs wouldn't land you a SERIOUS infield prospect. JP needs to sell high on some guys in the bullpen, something he is always reluctant to do. Downs would be perfect to move. Litsch, while looking real nice as a #5 starter, might have his value at an all time high right now. I wouldn't mind Janssen getting an extended look at that rotation spot - he had REALLY solid spring training #s this year, and maybe should have even been given the chance this year. He also pitched extremely effectively last year as a starter when he was healthy, if you believe him that he hid an injury over the latter half of the season. I'd also seriously consider moving Jeremy Accardo. His value has to be at an all time high right now, and I wonder what a team would give up to have a bona fide closer under control for a bunch of seasons. I think we have the depth in arms for the sacrifice.

In other words, whatever you do, PLEASE do not sit back JP. Tinker around, see how highly teams think of some of our young players. To just idle around and watch as your team puts up a consistent .700 OPS vs RHP is RIDICULOUS and UNACCEPTABLE.
Thomas - Tuesday, August 28 2007 @ 08:08 AM EDT (#173628) #

Who would be the leader of multi-double games?

Frank Thomas and Matt Stairs with a pair each. Stairs had a three-double game (the only one during the streak) and a two-double game and Thomas had a pair of two-double games. Hill, Overbay, Johnson, Rios and Zaun each had one multi-double game.

Geoff - Tuesday, August 28 2007 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#173635) #
Is nobody clamoring for the return of Eric Hinske?
jbrains - Tuesday, August 28 2007 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#173651) #
Doubles are Good, I guess. But Not the Be-All, End-All.

Indeed. Doubles without walks are mostly meaningless. A .326 OBP will not take us anywhere, whether the culprit is a low AVG (.260 is pretty low) or a low walk rate (which I'm sure is also low). Doubles with walks, however, is a recipe for success, as you can see from the Red Sox and Yankees, among others.

Of course, I still think the big reason for this underperforming offence is the preponderance of RHB who can't hit RHP. This leads to an offence that looks good overall, but doesn't win, due to a high variance in runs scored from day to day. The Jays need a LHB not named Stairs to pretend he can hit again. If Overbay returns to normal in 2008, we'll have one LHB who can hit, but we need more. At least two more, and maybe three. If the Jays are going to continue with a mostly-glove SS, let him not be right-handed!

jbrains - Tuesday, August 28 2007 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#173652) #
It seems to me the Jays need to make the kind of trade they made in 1990. They don't need to get "better", but different. I, for one, would love to deal Glaus and one of the outfielders for similar players, who are not RHB. JP has to do something to break away from an offence consisting of 6 guys who do the same thing.
Double, Double, Toil and Trouble (and Repeat 32 Times) | 14 comments | Create New Account
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