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Wednesday's 8-5 Jay victory "clinched" at least a .500 season for the squad, which, even after last night's 8-5 loss to the Orioles, is now 81-78 heading into the final series with the Devil Rays.

Only five teams in all of baseball have a better home record than the Toronto 47-31 Rogers Centre mark, but two of them, those pesky Sox and Yanks, are also in the AL East.

Incidentally, the only other 81-78 club in the majors right now is that darling of the National League Central, the Milwaukee Brewers. Perspective alert -- it's all about the competition.

Anyway, is 81 worth, if not celebrating, at least recognizing?

A Day Late, But That's 81 | 69 comments | Create New Account
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TimberLee - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#174844) #
Yeah, this late in the season "recognize" is the word. A few weeks ago it would have been "celebrate".
Chuck - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#174845) #

Anyway, is 81 worth, if not celebrating, at least recognizing?

Sure, in much the same way that white bread, Cheeze Whiz and network television needs to be celebrated/recognized.

jeff mcl - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#174847) #
Should they sweep the D-Rays this weekend, that would make for a measly 3-win difference from 2006 to 2007.   Sure doesn't feel like it, huh?
christaylor - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#174848) #
Ain't this a kiss from your sister, but it does mean that the Jays will have their first back to back winning seasons of the Ricchardi era. What I'll remember most about this season is what a tease it has been... I know the Jays were never truly in the wild card hunt, but they often seemed on the verge of getting in the hunt, especially in August.
 

ayjackson - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#174849) #
As an aside, Clayton Kershaw edged out our Travis Snider for top prospect in the Midwest League.  It's quite possible that we'll be dry the rest of the way through the leagues, unless there's still some love for Romero out there.
Mike Green - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#174852) #
Clayton Kershaw does have a 5% (perhaps) chance of turning into Sandy Koufax or Randy Johnson or Nolan Ryan, whereas Snider has a 30% (perhaps) chance or better of turning into a Delgado/Thome type.  The odds of Kershaw being a better player than Snider during their pre-free agency years are probably under 1 in 4, but for their careers the calculus is different. Baseball America looks at "potential", and is not particularly concerned about career paths and value to the club that owns the player (Mike Mussina was a more valuable player to the Orioles organization than Randy Johnson was to the Expos organization, despite Johnson having greater potential).



Ryan Day - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#174853) #

It's quite possible that we'll be dry the rest of the way through the leagues, unless there's still some love for Romero out there.

I'd be surprised if Romero makes it - though he did have a few good starts, so it's possible he impressed some of the right people - but I'd expect Diaz to show up.

Flex - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#174854) #
Let's not forget that there were one or two so-called experts out there who picked the Jays as prime candidates for a complete collapse this year. I believe one of them had the Jays coming in under 70 wins.

Given everything that happened, this team had a chance to completely fold, and only partly folded. That's victory.

John Northey - Friday, September 28 2007 @ 11:13 PM EDT (#174859) #
OK, the Jays are now officially an over 500 team for '07 and will finish 7th in the AL.  Again, a NHL/NBA playoff system would get them in.

For fun with stats I just noticed that Accardo now has 30 saves.  Identical to Rivera.  Who'd have thunk?  Has a lower ERA (2.14 vs 3.15) and just one more blown save (5 vs 4 after tonight).  Could've made a fortune betting on that one.

jeff mcl - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#174860) #
Let's hope I live long enough to see a Yankee-Bosox/AL rest of East/AL Central/AL West divisional realignment.
Jimbag - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 03:20 AM EDT (#174861) #
Well, the season certainly didn't unfold the way I thought it would, to say the least. The strength of this year's Jays was on the mound instead of at the plate. At the beginning of the year I thought we'd see a lot of bloated ERAs and some gaudy offensive stats....so in one sense, I guess I'm disappointed that I was so wrong in my prognostication.

But taken another way, I'm encouraged by the way the pitching staff performed this year. The emergence of Accardo (I thought he was a bust from his few appearances in '06), Marcum,  McGowan and everyone else (too many to mention) should hopefully mean good things in the years to come. Remember when we were hoping for anything close to league average stats from the recycle bin back in April? Back then I thought it'd be a disaster if Zambrano or any of the other free agent signings didn't work out, but it's turned out to be a glorious opportunity for the young arms to step up make their mark.

It's been a strange year, full of the unexpected. I'd written the Jays off time and again, and they'd keep clawing their way back into the picture (and I kept watching even when I'd written them off). When they got to within 5 games last month, I actually said they had a chance....unfortunately they hit the skids shortly afterwards and never really got into the race again. But these last two weeks have been almost as entertaining as being in a pennant race - almost. Sweeping the Sox was great to watch, the series in NY was brilliant, even if the results weren't always positive....at the end of the year I can honestly say I've been entertained by this year's version of the Jays.

As to whether to celebrate being over .500? We can celebrate that we don't cheer for a loser, I guess. Which is kind of like drinking warm, flat champagne that has been sitting on the coffee table for a couple of days. Nothing to write home about, but I can imagine worse things to drink.



Dave Till - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#174862) #
I've long believed that the Jays' pitching improvement this year is actually just their awesome defense, particularly their infield defense. According to the Hardball Times stats page, the Jays' infielders have made 255 out-of-zone plays; the next highest is 216, and the league average is 200. The infielders also have the best Zone Rating in the league - their .810 is 34 points better than the league average. No wonder the Jays signed McDonald to a contract!

Of course, the flip side is that the infielders with awesome defense are the ones having trouble with the bat. McDonald can't hit at all. Overbay (who really is superb defensively, especially at snaring and scooping grounders) had a very poor year at the plate for a first baseman, thanks to his injury. And even Aaron Hill, who has been whacking huge quantities of doubles, had a below-average OBP until a recent hot streak. So the gains on defense are cancelled out by the losses on offense.

Because the Jays have had so many injuries, talent evaluation becomes difficult. Wells, Zaun, Johnson and Overbay all had subpar years, and all were recovering from injuries. How many of these players are going to return to their 2006 levels, and how many need to be replaced? I don't think there's any way of knowing.

The Jays' biggest problem this year is the same as it's been for the last decade: they are competing against two 800-pound gorillas. According to the USA Today salary database, the Yankees' total payroll is $189,639,045, and the Red Sox payroll is $143,026,214 (which, presumably, doesn't include the posting fee for Dice-K). The Jays are at $81,942,800. The difference between the Sox payroll and the Jays' payroll is almost exactly equal to the combined salaries of Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez. And the difference between the Yanks' payroll and the Sox payroll is enough to buy three Roy Halladays with a Ted Lilly or so left over in change. That's a heck of a disadvantage to have to overcome.

The Jays seem like an unsuccessful team when compared with the Sox or the Yanks, or with teams in more friendly divisions. But they're doing much, much better than the other teams in the AL East. The Orioles are in hopeless shape, and the Devil Rays have never gotten off the mat. Baltimore hasn't had a winning record since 1997 - that's ten straight losing seasons! - and the Devil Rays have never won more than 70 games ever. The Jays, on the other hand, have had winning records in six of the last ten years, and have gone 80-82 twice, despite having to play the Sox and the Yanks more than most AL teams do.

I'm not sure whether J.P. is doing the best possible job, but he deserves to be compared with all of his competition, not just the two Behemoths.
John Northey - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 08:44 AM EDT (#174863) #
How has the fielding been by each player?  Checking THT fielding stats for the Jays...
http://tinyurl.com/33pund
Revised Zone Rating = RZR = percent of balls in zone that player made an out on, no longer double counting double plays or balls out of zone.  I've included total out of zone (OOZ) figures and OOZ/Inning figures (Min 100 innings).  Listing is in order of innings played.  Beside the position I list how the top Jays regular would've ranked if qualified in the majors.

1B - 3rd between Youkilis and Kotchman (Stairs would be 3rd as well, Thigpen just ahead of Howard)
Overbay: 809 - 26 - .027
Stairs: 825 - 10 - .031
Thigpen: 733 - 5 - .052 (in the 90's for Inn)

2B - 3rd between Polanco and Phillips (Ellis in Oakland is 18 points ahead of the field in first)
Hill: 865 - 57 - .041 - no one else played more than 19 innings (Howie Clark) but all had a 1.000 RZR and 0 OOZ

3B - 9th between Blake and Kouzmanoff
Glaus: 706 - 48 - .052
Adams: 474 - 2 - .016 (ouch for both, 88 points lower than any qualified 3B)
Smith: 760 - 6 - .059
McDonald: 758 - 4 - .043 (in the 90's for Inn)
Luna: 650 - 4 - .044 (in the 90's for Inn)

SS - 7th between Greene & Tejada
McDonald: 843 - 51 - .064
Clayton: 806 - 27 - .054
Olmedo: 875 - 4 - .034

LF - 2nd between Byrnes & Holliday, Shannon Stewart just barely behind at 895
Lind: 897 - 22 - .035
Johnson: 841 - 18 - .036
Stairs: 830 - 7 - .024

CF - 13th between Sizemore and Young, Rios would be just ahead of Sizemore
Wells: 878 - 32 - .025
Rios: 892 - 4 - .026

RF - 2nd, need 4 decimals to break tie for 1st with Ordonez, Kearns just back with Shawn Green just behind him
Rios: 905 - 43 - .034
Stairs: 769 - 0 - 0
Johnson: 909 - 0 - 0 over just 70 innings

League averages: OF: 870 AL, 879 NL  IF: 776 AL, 773 NL
Most positions have just 20 or so players listed as qualified.

Note: no listings available for pitchers or catchers as range isn't a big deal in either case.  FWIW Thigpen is the only catcher without an error, and has more assists per inning played than any of the others by a mile.  For pitchers only McGowan has more than 1 error (2) and Marcum started the most double plays (5, next is at 2) and has the best range as far as chances per inning goes.

So, what does this tell us?

Stairs is not costing us defensively at first this year (bit of a surprise), but is a weak defensive outfielder (no shock).
Thigpen belongs behind the plate
Adams is brutal defensively at third and, imo, should be left in AAA unless he learns to hit a heck of a lot better
McDonald is great defensively but Olmedo is just as good at SS and should be the backup over Adams (1000 at 3B over 7 innings) .
Rios is our best defensive outfielder but Lind is not as far back as one would expect.
The Jays overall are above the league median at most positions or so close they easily could be with their regulars.

So, good surprises in Stairs (1B), Lind (LF) and Olmedo (SS).  Bad surprise in Adams & Thigpen (1B).  Unless Thigpen is brutal in his game calling abilities he really should stay behind the plate.
Flex - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#174865) #
By the way, am I the only one who gets nervous when I hear McGowan describe his off-season plans this way:

"Get bigger and stronger," he said. "More running, more lifting."

Brandon League Alert!

I sure hope he's got a baseball-savvy trainer watching over him.

Chuck - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#174866) #

McDonald is great defensively but Olmedo is just as good at SS and should be the backup over Adams (1000 at 3B over 7 innings) .

There's an argument that Olmedo should start ahead of McDonald, no? His weak bat is still better than McDonald's. WIth all the caveats of visual observations clearly understood, I have subjectively liked what I've seen from Olmedo defensively.

Bad surprise in Adams & Thigpen (1B).

I think Thigpen's poor defense at 1B is moot. He's shown so little with the stick that a role as a platoon first baseman is highly unrealistic. He'll be an emergency first baseman, no more. His future, if he has one, is behind the plate.

CF - 13th between Sizemore and Young, Rios would be just ahead of Sizemore

Do we chalk up Wells' descent to the middle of the pack to his injury? Or is this the natural decline of a 28-year old with his particular body type? While not heavy, per se, he's not especially lithe. I don't see him as a center fielder come his early 30's, unless he can coast on his reputation much like Puckett and Griffey did.

ayjackson - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#174867) #

I feel Olmedo is redundant at this point.  JMac is undercontract for two years - we don't need two defensive SS who can't hit worth a lick.  Olmedo looks a worse hitter than JMac at this point,  though he'd seem to project to a higher OBP based on his AAA performance.  Regardless, I see little point in having both of them unless we can't find a Zobrist, Arias, Callaspo (wife beater), Aybar, Escobar, Harman, or other youngster to groom.

As for Wells, the sooner he's moved to right field, the better.

Lind looks so goofy when he runs, that the assumption is he's a poor defender.  It's good to see that the stats don't bear that out.  A few of us opined earlier in the year that, though awkward, he looked effective.

Mike Green - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#174868) #
Thigpen's minor league hitting record is consistent with the idea that he can hit enough for a catcher, but not enough to be a first baseman, platoon or otherwise.  He has some work to do handling pitchers, but moves very well and pounces on balls in front of the plate very well and throws maybe a little better than Zaun, so there is hope that he can fill the role.

I agree subjectively with RZR's ratings, to a greater extent than any objective defensive measure for a Blue Jay season that I can recall.  If they are accurate, the logical thing to do at shortstop in the event that there are no acquisitions is to platoon Olmedo and McDonald.  That is not likely to happen, though.

ayjackson - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#174869) #

As for Adams, his defence really sucks.  I think the Jays should offer Towers for Mackowiak.  SD had apparently showed interest in acquiring him at the deadline.  He'd be about $3m if he accepted their tender.  Mackowiak has a club option for $3m.  Mackowiak is what Adams should aim to be, but likely never will. 

I'm thinking better safe than sorry - trade for Mackowiak and maybe non-tender Russ (he's out of options - he'd have to be on our active roster next year or lost to waivers anyway).

brent - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#174870) #
I think Dave Till had a good point. The Blue Jays are pretty much right in the middle for payroll, standings and power rankings. I think this mostly means that we have a GM that is basically doing a competent job. Until I see another available GM who would clearly be better than JP, I am not interested in a change of direction. The excuses could stop, though.
Rickster - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#174871) #

I have a feeling Adams would sneak through waivers. Besides - who cares? He'll never be a major leaguer with the bat (262/329/401 in AAA in his age 27 season) and his defence is horrible. According to the numbers above he's worse even than Troy Glaus!

The focus should be on getting VW to about 1/3 of the value of his contract. If he can get back to being one of the top 10 ML CFs for the next couple of years (maybe even as productive with the bat as Juan Pierre or Mike Cameron!) the Jays have a shot at scoring enough runs to make the playoffs. After that, they are stuck paying him $100M to be a AAAA RF for another 5 years.

Seamus - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#174873) #
I've noticed there's been some speculation that the Jays could look for a veteran starter to compete for the 5th spot.

Even though Litsch has been a great surprise, I don't think this is a bad idea since there are always injuries and Litsch could be very valuable as a 6th guy.  Certainly it couldn't hurt.

If the money is there, has anyone considered the idea of going after Curt Schilling as that veteran starter?  I know he's not a front of the rotation pitcher anymore, but he wouldn't have to be.  I like the idea of having a playoff proven veteran pitching alongside young guys like Marcum and McGowan.

Just an idea..

Thomas - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#174875) #
I think Dave Till had a good point. The Blue Jays are pretty much right in the middle for payroll, standings and power rankings. I think this mostly means that we have a GM that is basically doing a competent job. Until I see another available GM who would clearly be better than JP, I am not interested in a change of direction. The excuses could stop, though.

I think many Bauxites and Blue Jays fans agree with your and Dave's first two statements, but disagree with the third. I don't think any Blue Jay fan can reasonably argue JP is doing an awful job, just like nobody can argue he's doing a fantastic job.

While you don't want to change until you see another available GM who would be clearly better than JP, many of us would like to see a change in the hope that we find a GM better than JP. While that may not happen and we may end up with a worse GM, that's a chance once takes when making management changes. We've seen what JP has to offer and in six years of an admittedly difficult environment, it's been six consecutive Septembers (and most Augusts) where the Jays have not been in serious contention for a playoff berth. Under his tenure our minor league system has been surpassed by every division rival but the Orioles. On the other hand, he should receive strong preliminary rankings for the 2007 draft and the way Marcum, McGowan, Janssen and Litsch have succeeded. A reasonable argument can be made for giving JP one more year, but there's a strong case to be made for firing him. Maybe a new GM would lead us to a couple of fifth place finishes, but he could also lead us to a Wild Card berth.

Plus, it's rare that a GM who would "clearly better than JP" would be on the market, because he would have to be proven to be a top tier GM already. The good GMs, like Beane, Epstein, Scheurholz, Shapiro, Dombrowksi and Towers to name a few, don't go on the market very often. The last one I can think of is maybe Doug Melvin, who was fired by Texas in 2001 and hired by Milwaukee in 2003. He led Texas to the postseason three times and has done a good job in Milwaukee, but I'm not positive how his tenure in Texas was viewed. Jim Bowden's done a good job with Washington this year, but he was regularly criticized during his time in Cincy. Chris Antonelli, an assistant with Cleveland, is viewed as one of the best GM prospects in baseball. But we have no idea how good a GM he'll be and certainly don't know he'll be "clearly better than JP," who was an assistant to Beane. Same with Dave Forst, a current Beane assistant. Nobody without a track record is ever going to be "clearly better than JP" so by this logic we should wait until one of these great GMs is fired or quits, which could involve a long wait.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#174876) #
Hi. This is my first post on this mainland internet board.

I'm here tryin'  to figure what the odds would be that we'd end up wtih a GM worse than JP Ricciardi. That seems to be a pretty unlikely event.

One thing the organization could do to prevent such an event would be to  first fire Paul Godfrey, who let JP Ricciardi destroy the player scouting organization that preceded him. In fact, as a (very, very tiny) shareholder in Rogers Communications, I'm going to be recommending that very shortly to a Rogers VP>

Then, we could hire back some of the people JP Ricciardi fired, starting maybe with Tim Wilken, who was the extraordinary Scouting Director until 2000, and during the moneyless Interbrew years, when Toronto punched way above its weight class in the draft. Maybe Tim could help us rebuild the organization that used to contribute the most talent to the majors of any organization.

I think we should easily be able to do better than JP Ricciardi. Terry Ryan comes to mind.

christaylor - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#174877) #
 Firstly, if you consider JP to be a worse than average GM, you're clearly wrong... secondly, what makes you think a name GM / one with a high profile or an up and comer would want to be the GM in Toronto? DePodesta didn't. So the chances that the next GM would be worse, if JP were replaced right now (even with Godfrey not choosing the GM) seem pretty good to me. Lastly, what makes you think the new guy would want Wilken back?
greenfrog - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#174878) #
Lind presents an interesting dilemma for JP. I think he is a breakout candidate for 2007. If the Jays sign Stairs (say, to a two-year deal) as their primary LF, what do you do with Lind? By 2008, he might be better than the Fredericton slugger.
greenfrog - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#174879) #
Let me rephrase that. I think Lind is a breakout candidate for 2008, and might be better than Stairs by '09 (maybe even by the end of next year).
Mylegacy - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#174880) #

I'm not unhappy with JP. He's put together a 15 man deep QUALITY pitching staff, with more on the way. Even with only league average health the offense would be good enough for us to compete for a play-off spot.

In 08 we need to maxamize every offensive opportunity. I suggest Lind/Johnson in LF (Johnson has been FANTASTIC this year for a guy just having had back surgery! Let him get healthy over the winter and we've got the old Sparky back. FURTHERMORE, IM(H)O he deserves the chance to succeed), Wells in CF, Rios in RF, Glaus at 3rd, the Prime Minister at SS, Hill at 2nd, Overbay at 1st, Zaunnie/Thigpen at C, and Thomas/Stairs at DH.

I say we tell Stairs that unless there are injuries you get 300+ at bats at DH, we tell Thomas you get the 150 to 250 at bats against lefties. This gives us an amazing DH against both righties and lefties. If Stairs won't stay, so be it. If Thomas grumbles so be it also. (Thomas and Stairs will both be VERY important as pitch hitters when lefties replace righties and visa versa). Hill and Rios are both break-out candidates, Hill as Molitor and Rios as Barfield.

We NEED a quality, near ready for prime time, 3rd to back up Glaus. Even if we have to trade young pitching to get it. That is the ONLY defensive/offensive spot we MUST upgrade in. Luna can go get em reasonably well but has the bat speed of a guppy.

The bench will decide 08. Stairs and Thomas are both ancient, Glaus' body plays more like 43 than 34, JMac must be closely monitored. JP will need to really scour the league for the bench and make sure he has enough AAAA guys stashed at AAA  to see us through some ow-ies.

Three or four years ago I felt 07 at the earliest but more likely 08 and 09 were our "window." I still feel the same. 

Is it spring yet?

TamRa - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#174881) #

John,

I'm not real good with defensive stats but, if the argument is that our ggreat itching derives from our great defense, then it seems to me the pertinant question is this - given that McDonald's bat is clearly a drain on the offense, how does his defense compare to the more obvious alternatives that might be available this offseason?

Obviously, Nioka isn't going to be easily compared but for the rest - Ekstien, Uribe, Renteria, Wilson, Tejada, Lopez....how much do we lose defensively if we replace Mcdonald with one of these?

 

ayjackson - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#174882) #

Tallet for Zobrist.....Towers for Mackowiak.....and a 50/50 platoon for Stairs and Thomas....Lind/Johnson platoon in LF....Doc/AJ/Dusty/Marcum/Janssen in the rotation....Gus and Jesse back in AAA waiting for the injuries....

That gives us:

  • Lind LF
  • Hill 2B
  • Rios RF
  • Glaus 3B
  • Overbay 1B
  • Thomas DH
  • Wells CF
  • Zaun C
  • MacDonald SS

bench:

  • Stairs
  • Johnson
  • Zobrist
  • Thigpen
  • Mackowiak

Pitching Staff:

  1. Halladay
  2. Burnett
  3. McGowan
  4. Marcum
  5. Janssen
  6. Ryan, Closer
  7. Accardo, Closer
  8. Downs, setup
  9. League, setup
  10. Frasor, 7th
  11. Wolfe, long relief

(imagine that bench!)

Flex - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#174883) #
Why do I keep seeing trade suggestions involving Towers? As far as I know he's a free agent as of Monday.
ayjackson - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#174884) #

We still own his rights - he can be tendered at about $3m, I believe.  He's Arb eligible for 2008 and 2009.  Unless we lost those rights when he was waived to the minors last year?

brent - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#174885) #
To reply to Thomas, what I meant by clearly better doesn't have to be a proven GM track record. When JP was hired, I thought he had a better track record than Ash (I had no confidence in him) because he was coming from being an assistant to Beane in Oakland (a successful organization). In other words, I would be open to taking a chance with someone just needing the chance to be a GM, too. However, what is the learning curve for a newcomer to the organization and as a GM? They would need at least one year to get changes started in personnel and players. Going forward from that may take an indefinite amount of time to make a realistic playoff run. Essentially, I think they need another 10-15 million in payroll to win the division and still be competitive year after year. The jays are about 16th in payroll and that just isn't close enough in the AL East. Finally, this last little push to the finish of the season won't hurt the drafting slot of the Jays too much; however, it looks like they will draft at around the 17th or 18th spot next year.
ahitisahit - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#174886) #

I don't buy that the Jays can't compete because of payroll. The team finished 13 games below .500 on the road, and if they win tommorow they'll be 19 games over .500 at the RC.  No other AL playoff team has a road record even close to being that bad.

Magpie - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#174887) #
Towers is arbitration-eligible. The Jays have until December 1 to decide. The suspense is... non-existent? And the other 29 teams know that, too. So if the Padres are interested, all they have to do is call his agent on December 2 and offer him the kind of deal the Jays gave Ohka and Thomson this spring.

What's with the interest in Ben Zobrist? HIs minor league numbers look impressive at first glance - until you look at how old he was and the level he was playing. His major league performance, although it's only 280 at bats, speaks for itself.

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#174888) #
 Firstly, if you consider JP to be a worse than average GM, you're clearly wrong..

Wow! That's a pretty strong statement.

Let's see.

Baseball Prospectus rated Ricciardi the 3rd worst manager in the AL. Number 12 of 14. Now I'm sure BP has its faults, and I'm sure one could tinker with the rating, maybe get him up to number 9 or 10 out of 14, but to say that it is "clearly wrong" to identify him as below average seems pretty harsh and unsubstantiated.

I'd say JP is most safely described as a below average AL GM.
Mike Green - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#174889) #
Trevor Plouffe would interest me much more than Zobrist.  Plouffe is blocked by Bartlett and Casilla, is 21 in double A, has a balance of offensive skills and plays adequate (at least) defence, with a strong throwing arm his main asset.  He probably won't help a club in 2008, but might be a nice player in 2009-10.
John Northey - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#174890) #
Good question on McDonald vs the alternates.  If you assume all chances are more or less the same at SS (not an unreasonable one to make) then here are the RZR's for each plus the OOZ/9 Inn (adjusted to 9 innings figuring a per game figure is easier to work with than a per inning one).  In order of RZR...

McDonald: 843 - 574
Tejada: 834 - 398
J Wilson: 823 - 586
Renteria: 815 - 433
Uribe: 798 - 322
F Lopez: 784 - 297
Eckstien: 781 - 435

Interesting to note that McDonald and Wilson both get to a ball every other game outside their zone.  For McDonald vs Tejada the OOZ accounts for (over 162 full games) up to 28 1/2 hits a season.  McDonald had 230 balls in his zone over 799 innings, or about 2.59 per game.  The difference between him and Tejada over 162 games in RZR would equal about (with the Jays pitching staff) 4 hits.  Thus McDonald vs Tejada over 162 games would equal defensively, at most, 33 hits (all singles most likely).   Over his playing time this year, to compare McDonald to Tejada you get an extra 20 singles, 315/340/401 vs Tejada's 298/356/446

McDonald vs Felipe Lopez (who JP dumped years ago) would be a lot bigger.  About 70 hits.  For just McDonald's playing time (799 innings) we would add (to compare to Lopez) just shy of 52 singles.  This would adjust McDonald's offense to 414/435/500 vs Lopez 244/307/350.
westcoast dude - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#174891) #

Reed Johnson has clearly lost it and it's not coming back. Lind is coming on strong and even John-Ford Griffin has plenty of pop. It seemed like every time he started in August, the Jays lost, yet management was oblivious. What was he doing to get himself in shape? Exercising his digits with Tiger Woods 2007 or some such totally lame waste of time. Mentally, he's lost his sharpness, too. From getting hung out to dry on a hit and run that turns into a strike 'em out, throw 'em out double play, to losing track of the outs, there's a pattern there, and it's not pretty.

Rickster - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#174892) #

I'd say JP is most safely described as a below average AL GM.

HA! Ask some Baltimore and Tampa fans what they think of that argument. The Jays are a good team that could have won 90 games this year, have some legitimate star players, and might win 90 next year. He's made some great trades (acquiring Accardo, Wolfe, Overbay, and Glaus for a group that did not figure in the team's long-term plans), signed some outstanding players (Burnett, Ryan, Thomas), and created a buzz around the team. Attendance is up dramatically(from 23,647 to 28,845 per game) . Not all of his moves have worked out - but they never do. The farm system isn't great. Every GM (even Gord Ash! gasp!) has his bad moves. He has built a team to be competitive from 2007-09.  He deserves a chance to see it through. It is not time to tear it all down and rebuild, which is exactly what a new guy would do.

Usually, if you are on the same side of an argument as Richard Griffin, you should re-assess your position.

Rickster - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#174893) #

Reed Johnson has clearly lost it and it's not coming back.

He had back surgery this spring! Let's see what kind of shape he's in next March before writing him off. Adam Lind and his 681 OPS might not be the answer in LF. In fact, he might not be good enough to be a major league regular.

Vernon Wells is the single biggest reason this team hasn't performed better this year. I am blown away that he gets such a free pass.

John Northey - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#174894) #
Y'know, checking McDonald's numbers it shows just how much value he does have due to defense when you add saved hits to overall offense.  315/340/401 with solid defense would be more than acceptable and Tejada is still a solid defensive shortstop (that is what I'd be assuming shifting McDonald's numbers that way, shifting his defense from his level to Tejada's).

But... are these numbers consistent year to year or do they fluctuate like mad?  Lets see!

McDonald
2007 - 843-574
2006 - 837 - 422
2005 - 806 - 358 in Detroit over 151 innings
2005 - 912 - 522 (62 out of 68 potential plays made, wow)
2004 - 717 - 542 in Cleveland over 166 innings
Lifetime - 834 - 499

So, weak his first shot at the majors, but got to plenty of balls he shouldn't have (probably trying too hard to impress).  Amazing his first shot in Toronto, then slumped a bit in Detroit before becoming high level again in Toronto in '06 and '07.  A hitter shifting like that in, say, OPS would look normal.

To compare stats again vs Tejada (the best SS potentially available for under $30 million per) using McDonald's career figures vs 04-07 for Tejada - that is a bit worse than '07, 818-449, but lets compare both while we're here.

Tejada in 2007 = 298/356/446
McDonald lifetime fielding shifted down to Tejada lifetime fielding, adjusting McDonald 2007 batting stats...
290/317/377
McDonald lifetime fielding shifted down to Tejada 2007 fielding, adjusting McDonald's 2007 batting stats...
281/308/367
McDonald 2007 fielding shifted down to Tejada lifetime fielding, adjusting McDonald's 2007 batting stats...
324/349/410
McDonald 2007 fielding shifted down to Tejada 2007 fielding, adjusting McDonald's 2007 batting stats...
315/340/401 (as I did before)

An interesting exercise eh?  This basically shows that Tejada is indeed an upgrade on McDonald no matter how you cut it, but you would have to decide a few things.  Is McDonald's improvement in '07 real?  If so then his fielding easily makes up for the poor bat as 315/340/401 with above average defense, which Tejada has, puts his OPS+ around Zaun territory (mid-90's).  However, if we take both players 04-07 fielding figures and put that on his bat we get 290/317/377 which is Russ Adams territory for a mid-80's OPS which is marginal at best.

FYI: checking the qualifiers for the majors at SS I get overall figures of 814-392 which do...
McDonald '07 fielding/league average
343/367/429 (sweet - his true value vs. an average SS this year)
McDonald lifetime fielding/league average
312/337/398 (not bad for what would be a league average defensive shortstop)

So, conclusion?  McDonald in '07 was a very valuable member of the team and well worth the full value of his new contract just this season, let along the next two.  Going forward he should be able to stay as a league average SS too.  I am surprised as I did not expect this conclusion but there it is.  I now am a McDonald booster.
Mylegacy - Saturday, September 29 2007 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#174895) #

Westcoast Dude, you say; "Reed Johnson has clearly lost it and it's not coming back."

I say, WAPOBS! With the first four letters of the acronym standing for: What a pile of...."

Sparky, you're the man!

jeff mcl - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 12:32 AM EDT (#174896) #
There are reasons not to like JP: dishonesty, needless taunting of the KC Royals when they signed Gil Meche, lack of interpersonal skills and tact, etc.  His mid-summer comments about bumping Burnett down to no 4 starter when Marcum and McG were going gang-busters were ridiculously unnecessary and potentially damaging...  He's not a "feel good" GM and his way of doing business doesn't seem to jive with foggy notions of a "Blue Jay way".

But as some of you have pointed out, he's made some very shrewd trades, is an ace at scrap heap pickups, has signed some very good players for reasonable money and drafted some solid players who are now contributing in a serious way.  Even if I dislike JP personally, I respect what he's done professionally.  I think alot of you might be overlooking the drive and competitve nature of a young exec who thought he could beat the Yankees and Bosox on $50 million per year.  It's one thing for Terry Ryan and Larry Beinfest, but quite another for an AL East GM.   It's going to take dollars and I don't think the comparisons are fair until JP really has some resources to play with.  Get him from 55% to 75% of the Bosox payroll and things will start to happen.  Don't forget that this is the only pro sports league in North America without a salary cap.


christaylor - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#174897) #
 I wouldn't say that Reed Johnson "not coming back" is BS (bull-spit, I presume is what we're talking about here, no?)... clearly, 2006 was a career year for him and was unlikely to be duplicated (his high BABIP for a non-slugger indicates a lot of seeing eye singles in 2006) but Johnson's back may never come back. Backs, even with surgery, don't magically heal. Johnson just isn't the player he was (and he wasn't much of a player out side a good first half of 2006). He's also not particularly cheap anymore and his $3.5M could be better spent elsewhere. I'd be happy to see him go.
Frank Markotich - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#174899) #
Johnson is a nice player when used in his proper role - starter vs LHP (career 307/370/461) and defensive replacement vs RHP (career 267/328/383, which is inadequate for a major league corner outfielder).
TimberLee - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#174900) #

Let me just say that I would be extremely surprised if Adam Lind didn't prove to be much more valuable next year than Reed Johnson. As great as it is to watch a real hustler give his maximum effort all the time, we need some lefthanded power from left field, and Lind still shows some promise. Johnson was a productive hitter for a few weeks once.

 Likewise, I would be surprised if Matt Stairs contributes as much next year as Mr. Hurt. I'd still love to have Matt around to PH for McDonald approximately once a game, and fill in at 1B or DH as needed.

 Lordy, it's going to be a long winter!

ayjackson - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#174901) #

Reed is a good fourth outfielder and bench player - and has good platoon splits.  I think Lind will be our leftfielder next year though.  Also, we'll likely have Dave Smith, Aaron Mathews and Ryan Patterson at Syracuse next year who might all figure to be good fourth outfielder or platoon partner for Lind.They probably wouldn't be ready out of Spring Training though, might not figure as a cheap alternative to Reed for next year.

I have two questions for the experts:

  1. Is Hill Arb-eligible as a Super Two this offseason?
  2. If AJ opts out next year, would we be entitled to FA compensation?  (ie Could we still qualify him after he opts out?)
Thomas - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#174909) #
I just want to mention how disappointed I am that Gibbons couldn't find one start for Fasano all of September, even with the Fu Manchu Man missing some games for the birth of his child.

Seriously, he's a September callup and he can't even get one appearance all month?
Original Ryan - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#174910) #
Fasano suffered a knee injury in Syracuse late in the season that requires surgery, so he probably wasn't able to play.
Magpie - Sunday, September 30 2007 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#174911) #
Fasano's been home with his wife in Chicago for at least the last ten days. She's having a baby, and there may be problems.
John Northey - Monday, October 01 2007 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#174921) #
Now that the season is over it is worth noting the Jays were closer to first in the AL East than 4th.

Of course, they were 13 back of the Sox and 14 ahead of the Orioles so it isn't really that great of news, but better than the alternative (being in the Orioles/D-Rays section of the division).

Based on W3 at Baseball-Prospectus (adjusting for many things) you get the Jays at 87-75 and 16 back of the Red Sox and 8 1/2 back of the Yankees, and 9 ahead of the Orioles, 12 ahead of the D-Rays. The highest W3 for any other team in the AL was 88.4, putting the Jays (in terms of raw talent) just 1 game back of being the 3rd best in the AL this year. It also makes the AL East look even stronger than people say it is. Ugh.

Lets all hope for some good luck in '08 letting the team have the offense and pitching/defense all click at the same time for just one year.
CeeBee - Monday, October 01 2007 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#174931) #

"Lets all hope for some good luck in '08 letting the team have the offense and pitching/defense all click at the same time for just one year."

As well as the Yankees and/or the Redsox having the luck the Jays had this year.

ANationalAcrobat - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#174932) #
Schoeneweis linked to steroids.
unclejim - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 07:03 AM EDT (#174936) #
Just to set the cards straight to begin with, I'm a JP fan....

Off topic I know, but I wanted to put this out there.

Probably the biggest off season move was the non-move when we failed to land either Lilly or Meche, (or both, which JP hinted that he was trying to do). Given most posters seemed pretty happy about this failure at the time I thought it might be interesting to see how our #5 starters did compared to them.

Both Lilly's and Meche's numbers were great, if not better than great this year. Neither got injured, both had ERA's under 4 and pitched over 200 IP.

(sorry not to use a table but my HTML is dodgy)

(W-L   ERA   GS   IP)

Lilly     15-8   3.83  34 207
Meche 9-13  3.67  34 216

our #5 starters below (more or less, no time to wade through each actual #5 spot to see which GS were in the 5 spot, but these guys basically were the #5 pitchers for the season)

Towers         5-10    5.38   25    107
Litsch          7-9      3.81   20    111
Otka             2-5      5.79   10     56
Zambrano    0-2    10.97   2       10.1
Banks          0-0     7.36    1         7.1
Taub            0-0     9.00    1         5

Apart from showing that Litsch was a real find this season (and JP should get a lot of credit for being brave enough to promote him from AA) as apart from his starts the 5 spot was a disaster.

Anyways, without diving into stats I think its obvious with either Lilly or Meche as our #3 the team should've been about 5 wins better then they ended up, and with Lilly and Meche probably closer to 10 wins and right in the thick of the w/c... the only counter arguement is that its likely we wouldn't have seen both Marcum and McGowan pitch as much as they did.  But one of them would've been pitching most of the season as our #5 (rememer no Zambrano, no Otka, Chacin starting as #5 until DL) and the other filling in for AJ's frequent DL trips.   And the rotation next season would be lights out.

So, no real scientic procecss here, but just one to consider for the JP bashers, it looks like he knew what he was trying to do, but didn't have the funds to see it through. Its easy to critise when you can cherry pick stats using hindsight.

Incidentally, what happened to this money allocted to Lilly/Meche? It was never actually spent so does this mean we have a it more to spend this off season, or is it gonna be swallowed up by Well's contract ?

mathesond - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#174940) #
Something to factor into Lilly's numbers was his move from the AL to the NL, which generally accepted wisdom says helps pitchers' numbers.

As for the money that would havee gone to Lilly and Meche - perhaps some went to Vernon's extension, perhaps it is part of the payroll flexibility that has been hinted at for next season...

Chuck - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#174943) #
Something to factor into Lilly's numbers was his move from the AL to the NL, which generally accepted wisdom says helps pitchers' numbers.

And that accepted wisdom only talks about the presumed lower caliber of players in the NL. On top of that, there is the very real and quanitifable difference of facing pitchers rather than designated hitters, generally worth about half a run a game.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#174951) #
Your early 2008 ZIPS projections are here.  No surprises really, although ZIPS still doesn't like Marcum much.  I don't know how much accounting goes on for pitcher's fielding ability.
Chuck - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#174955) #

Your early 2008 ZIPS projections

Not the most upbeat forecast, though I guess that's the point of these things: cold, sober disinterest.
* Marcum still plagued by gopheritis
* no growth for Rios
* regression for Hill
* Wells' modest bounceback not enough to offset the age-related erosions of Glaus, Overbay, Thomas
* Wells' contract seemed to be predicated on his "optimistic (15%)" forecast being his true level
* Olmedo and MacDonald are offensive (in both senses of the word) clones
* no .500 sluggers (just where are the big scary bats?)

We need MyLegacy's zippity-doo-da-zippity-ay projection to temper the .500ness of Dan's ZIPS forecast. It's going to be a long, cold winter Roger. How about some of your eternal sunshine (from your spotless mind)?

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#174956) #
I don't agree with the Hill projection at all.  He's not likely to slug under .400 or have an on-base percentage under .330.  I covered this last year, but part of the problem is that his season in New Hampshire looks less impressive than it was.  That was a tough, tough park for a right-handed hitter before the hotel went in.  Plus, he's packed on the muscle in his lower body.  That means less range and more power than he had when he was 23.

The bottom line though is quite reasonable.  It's not so much the lack of power that is likely to afflict the club,  but rather the poor on-base percentages.  For the team to win, the pitching will have to remain good (and most importantly healthy) and Hill and Rios will have to take another step forward.  It could happen, but...

Frank Markotich - Tuesday, October 02 2007 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#174960) #

Just for fun, I took the projections for the expected regulars (bumping up McDonald by 50%) and tweaked the bench guys plus added in a handful of at bats for pitchers in interleague to get the team outs total to the league average. Using the SB version of the basic runs created formula I came up with 759 projected runs (2007 actual 753).

I did the same for the pitchers, giving Chacin the missing starts (or assuming Chacin-like performance from whoever) and massaged the relief innings plus cut back Ryan to 39 IP as a hedge to get to 1,441 innings (2007 Al average), bumped up the earned runs to get to total runs and ended up with 696 runs allowed (2007 actual was 699). The pythag is 88 wins.

So ZIPS calls for a repeat of 2007 more or less.

Mylegacy - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 02:29 AM EDT (#174963) #

The Chuckster postulates: "We need MyLegacy's zippity-doo-da-zippity-ay projection to temper the .500ness of Dan's ZIPS forecast. It's going to be a long, cold winter Roger. How about some of your eternal sunshine (from your spotless mind)?"

Mylegacy pontificates: Zips sees us having great pitching and defense. I concur. Zips sees our offense being offensive; how dare those rogues! The only person connected to the team that didn't have multiple surgeries was JP's nasal spray supplier. Give the 07 offensive personnel even reasonable health and a berth in the playoffs are assured!

I assure you.

PS: Chucky, as to my mind being "spotless" I would suggest either of my first two wives would say a better word might be "vacuous."

TamRa - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 02:46 AM EDT (#174964) #

Why is everyone so impressed with ZIPS anyway? Those projections are wildly wrong far more than they are spot on, in my experience. I think I chould just eyeball a player's recent history and allow for known factors like age or injury and just spitball projections that were in the same neighborhood of accuracy and lord knows I'm nothing special at predictions.

I don't believe I've ever looked at a set of ZIPS that i didn't shake my head in amazement at some of the conclusions.

 

ayjackson - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#174969) #
My thoughts on ZIPS is that if you had a population of players (say a fantasy team), ZIPS would be pretty good at projecting the cumulative totals for the team.  I think that you can look at certain individual projections and make some corrections for which ZIPS hasn't accounted.  I don't think ZIPS would ever project a young player, Rios for instance, to improve on a career high HR total.  Good young hitters usually do improve their power through their twenties, though.
John Northey - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#174975) #
Always interesting, but most projections are generally not much different than taking the last 3 years and averaging them with a bit of an adjustment for age.

Still, what do we see?
Above average for position
Rios, Glaus, Wells, Zaun (RF/3B/CF/CA)

Below average for position but better than other positions
Thomas, Overbay, Lind, Stairs, Johnson (just better than the average catcher, worse than a SS) (DH/1B/LF/UT/LF)

Below average for all positions
Hill (barely), everyone else (regulars for 2B/SS)

Realistic options for SS listed...
Olmedo - 244/296/311
McDonald - 244/289/313

Unlikely options for SS
Adams - 246/312/357
Luna - 247/302/367
Santos - 213/262/324

So, not factoring in defense, SS is screaming for a replacement. However, given the figures I estimated mixing in RZR ratings and balls reached out of his zone McDonald actually can be of average value or above.

Hill is listed as below average, but is in eyeshot and most of us would expect him to reach average. Mix in gold glove level defense and I'm happy.

Lind/Johnson mixed right should be about average for a corner outfield slot, but should have no trouble outhitting an average CF and with their defense that should be acceptable.

Overbay seems a bit pessimistic at 264/343/431 given lifetime numbers of 284/362/454 but he is on the wrong side of 30 now and did hit 240/315/391 this year with injuries. His projection is 100% dependent on health.

The others appear to not be a worry outside of backups (always tough to be ready for).

As to pitching...
ERA for Starters...
Halladay: 3.49
Burnett: 3.79
McGowan: 3.97
Litch: 4.43 (mentions that with the D-Rays he'd be at 5.03)
Marcum: 4.67
League Average Starter: 4.73
Chacin: 4.78
D Romero: 4.86
Vermilyea: 4.86
Kennedy: 4.95
Towers: 4.96
Banks: 5.82

So all 5 likely starters are listed as better than league average. Wow. Chacin in eyeshot at #6 and Davis Romero also right there. Towers is almost 100% certain to be elsewhere next year thus putting #7 on as Vermilyea, Kennedy (figure he is sticking around), and everyone else in the minors. Others listed had 5.70 ERA's plus.

Relievers who could be starters but likely will be in the pen...
Janssen: 3.04
Wolfe: 4.32

The pen itself...
Ryan: 2.08
Accardo: 3.16
Frasor: 3.42
Downs: 3.47
Tallet: 4.01
Gronkiewicz: 4.07
Average Reliever: 4.20
League: 4.60

Frasor is in arbitration years now, so I guess his sticking around depends on how much he gets (or is viewed as likely to get) through that. With Frasor we have 6 plus Janssen who are projected to be league average or better. Mix in close call Wolfe and eyeshot range for League and I suspect Frasor will be mixed into a trade this winter.

So, that is a killer staff. It projects as likely that the Jays will have no more than 1 or 2 guys in the pen who will not be league average and guys in AAA who are dang close to league average for the #6+ role in the rotation. Wow.

Now, what to do if you are JP? Find some offense obviously but where? LF is where I'd be looking as it has the least impact on the defense (unlike replacing McDonald) and has the potential to be your best offensive slot. The guys you have in Johnson/Lind/Stairs are either free agents (Stairs), rookies who can be sent down (Lind) or likely to have to be a 4th outfielder for most of his career (Johnson). Perfect slot to fix.

So, for LF who is out there?
Barry Bonds
I'd love it but doubt this is going to happen, even though the Jays are perfect. Could DH vs the odd right hander, have great defensive outfielders otherwise plus Johnson can go in for late innings, massive offense (in every respect of the word) which could draw more interest.

Brad Wilkerson
JP wanted him a few years ago but now is just a 4th outfielder at best

Luis Gonzalez
Mediocre hitter now and turns 40

Cliff Floyd
Mutual option, hit 284/373/422 this year but just a 102 OPS+ according to B-R. Solid hitter but it is possible to fall off a cliff now given his 244/324/407 in '06

Not a lot out there on first glance
http://www.mlb4u.com/freeagency.php

Still, imo, the Jays should go for the big splash and make a few jaws drop by going for Bonds.
Chuck - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#174982) #

I think the ZIPS numbers seem reasonable though I share the previously mentioned pessimism over those for Hill and Rios.

It is not a given that young players will simply keep improving every year, without exception, as they move to age 27. Big gains are often followed with regressions, though sometimes minor, in what is more often an incremental two-steps forward-one-step-back improvement than a fluid continuous one.

That said, Hill's 320/390 forecast would represent regressions on both the OBP and SLG fronts, which I don't see happening. I am expecting a regression in power (though not to 390) but improvements on the OBP front, perhaps even enough for a net gain to his overall offense. Still, if Hill v.2007 doesn't improve a lick for the next several years, he will still be a very valuable property given his league average offense (for all hitters) at a demanding defensive position that he plays very well, and for very little money.

Rios' age 27 ZIPS projection has him repeating the 350/500 of his past two seasons. That lack of growth in his prime would be disappointing and an OPS closer to 900 than 850 is what I would anticipate.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#174990) #
Walt Jocketty/Tony LaRussa/Dave Duncan are apparently headed for the exits in St. Louis. At least one Primate thinks that they would be a good fit in Toronto...
ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#174991) #
Sounds expensive. Perhaps it's wrong to want to be thrifty with management, but the reason I don't mind having Gibby on the team is that he gets a 1 year 600k contract, whereas Torre gets 3 years/16.5 million and Piniella gets 4 years/15 million. I'd just rather put the money into physical talent - it seems to me that the personality/intellect/knowledge of managers and GMs is much more common than the physical ability required to play effective baseball.
ANationalAcrobat - Wednesday, October 03 2007 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#174992) #
Correction: Piniella gets 3 years/10 million; Dusty "clogging up the bases" Baker had the 4 years/15 million.
Chuck - Thursday, October 04 2007 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#175001) #
Why is everyone so impressed with ZIPS anyway? Those projections are wildly wrong far more than they are spot on, in my experience.

2007 was a good year for ZIPS.
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