" If I were in charge I'd be calling up looking to make a trade that was centered around Accardo and Bill Hall."

If I was sure that B.J. was healthy and ready to start the season I would too. If I had any doubts I'd wait.

I find it interesting that JP quotes Towers' lifetime numbers. But, looking at his most recent numbers (last 2 years) they are brutal. I also think bringing Towers back would be interpreted by the fans and media as settling for mediocrity. You do know what you're going to get with Towers (blech!!) but I'd rather they take a chance on some young guys in the 5 spot. Could they really be any worse? Or you might find a nice surprise. I'd let him go and try someone else.

If you're talking about trading Accardo, reports are that the Orioles are desperate to trade Tejada and that they want a power bullpen arm.  Tejada's signed for two more years, so that would solve your SS problem for 2008 and your 3B problem for 2009 (assuming Glaus has a healthy year and opts out).  Tejada's not quite the hitter that Glaus is (821 career OPS vs. 858 OPS), but he should be a good defensive 3B.  He has a history of good health and he has speed, which I think would make him a nice fit for the Jays lineup.  Giving him a contract extension to play 3B until someone like Ahrens is ready shouldn't be a problem financially with Burnett and Glaus likely coming off the books in 2009,  freeing up about $24 million. 

Even the most pessimistic of Jays fans would have to like a lineup of Rios-Tejada-Overbay-Thomas-Glaus-Wells-Stairs-Hill-Zaun.

Towers upside seems to me greater than Taubenheim, Banks, etc.  He's not free talent, but for a guy with some major league success he's cheap depth and willing to serve a thankless role - spot starter / swingman / 12th guy - if he's as 'good' as last year. 

I don't mean to pick on this comment, it's just the final straw.  TOWERS IS A VERY POOR MAJOR LEAGUE PITCHER.  Yes, he may be an o.k. 12th guy  - FOR THE LEAGUE MINIMUM.  He is much too hittable to be given another chance.  I hope he makes me eat my words but I wouldn't count on it.  Couldn't they get Clement for the same financial committment? 

IF, and it's a big IF, Towers starts for the Jay's in 08 it'll be because Litsch, Chacin, Janssen and Purcey have all fallen on their respective swords. However, IM(H)O Towers would be an OK number 4 or 5 pitcher in the sissy league, you know the one that has 7 hitters, an automatic walk followed by an automatic out.

The biggest story of spring training will be to see if Accardo, Janssen, Wolfe, McGowan and Litsch are for real. Those five guys represent the best EVER emergence of pitching talent (production) from one team, in one year, that I can remember.

If you're talking about trading Accardo, reports are that the Orioles are desperate to trade Tejada and that they want a power bullpen arm.

I follow the Os closely and have seen no indication of desperation to move Tejada. MacPhail will hang onto him until there's a serious offer (ie multiple prospects in return). Why would MacPhail be in a hurry ... the team isn't going anywhere and money isn't an issue (the Os have lots).

I don't know that Janssen lived or died by the ground ball, but I do feel he lived and died by the soft swing/weak contact.  Inducing poor swings and keeping hitters off-balance is a serious pitching skill, in my opinion, and is not currently measurable.  I think we must be on the cusp of it though. 

I'm eager for stats on initial velocity of ball leaving bats.  When we have this information and couple it with the outcome rates (GB%, FB%, LD%), I think we'll get some very good information on hitting and pitching, that will help to explain an individual's BABIP or BAPIP against.  Generally, I think the outcome rates provide most of the picture, but exit velocity will help fill in the gaps.

Offering Towers arbitration right now is the only move that makes sense. You don't drop arms for nothing, especially one that is proved to be able to log 150+ innings in a year without injury in a pitching poor period. Tower's potential $2.5-$3 million is essentially the bottom end of scale for a starting pitcher that is proven to be able to log 20+ starts in a year with an ERA around 5. That's Towers.

By offering arbitration, a team going after him now has to make an offer to the Jays. Maybe it's a B prospect, or another piece that might fit the farm system. Maybe it's a utility player that's been underrated, like Accardo. Regardless, dropping him for nothing provides no worth to the Jays. If they carry him into Spring Training, once again, he could show a strong outing. Towers has the mechanics of a solid pitcher; 90-92mph fastball that he can locate down both sides of the plate, fast, late breaking slider, acceptable to below average curve and changeup. If he could get his mental game fixed, you'd see a dependable back of the rotation starter.

Even if he doesn't, in this pitching market, unloading Towers midseason to a team that's either been hit with injuries or is desperate for someone to eat innings will certainly earn back the money his contract will cost. It would be very unlikely that the Jays lose anything on this deal, which is reason alone to carry it for now. 

I'm not a huge fan of BABIP, but the current theory is that the fact that pitchers don't really have much control on balls once they're put in play shows that inducing poor swings isn't much of a pitching skill (or at least all major league pitchers are equally good at it).

Without reading it, I'd guess that article was based on league wide data.  I'm more interested in the holes in the trends rather than the trends.  I think initial velocity of balls of bats can help explain these exceptional situations.

Tower's issues are virtually all mental. When he's locked down, controling the plate, and focused, he's extremely potent. Being able to locate a heater through-out the zone is extremely valuable, especially when combined with the late breaking slider that he throws almost as fast as the fastball. It means batters are forced to guard at the both sides, and the late break is extremely effective at putting hitters off balance. That's why his mediorce at best offspeed pitches aren't as required for him. Essentially, Towers is a heater/slider control specialist.

The problem is that once you get a man on base, Towers has real issues being about to block out the runner and focus on the hitter. He worries too much about the potential baserunner, and it gets into his control. In those situations, he's got a tendancy to try and overpower hitters with high inside heat, or trying to bring the slider through the zone. Unfortunately for him, 92mph doesn't overpower a lot of the professional players in the AL East, and those meatball pitches get destroyed.

It's interesting, because there's a comparison between Towers and Litsch. Similar speed on the ball, Litsch is sinker/cutter to Tower's heater/slider. The difference is that even when Litsch is hit, he goes right back to keeping the ball down in the zone, looking for contact, while Towers goes for the K. If someone could straighten out his mental block, Towers would be a 10-14 game winner, with an ERA around 4 every year.

That's why he still has trade value. It will be a coach or a manager who feels they can figure him out enough to get him on track. Just alone, his tendency to avoid injury is extremely valuable right now. A healthy starter who's shown the ability to play with skill in the past, can eat innings, and if you're lucky, find a groove is worth a $3M flutter from someone, if the Jays want to shift him later. 

Here is a team that fancies itself on competing for a playoff spot next year and their thinking of wasting $$$ on Josh Towers?! You've got to be kidding me. I doubt that even Tampa would take him in a deal. And all these  people saying  he  has  trade value... what baseball were you watching? What he'd bring back in a trade would be even less than we got in the Hinske deal.

I guess the discussion is related to the fact its snowy outside, the local hockey team is crap (as usual) and we all want to spring training to start already. I can't wait till next week to see if JP has anything up his sleeve.

Why do you specify "initial velocity"?  As opposed to what other velocity? 

Did you read my original post?  I can't explain it much clearer, and I'm not writing an essay here.  I just hypothesized that data on the speed at which balls leave bats of certain players and versus certain pitchers will give us better information on the quality of pitching and hitting that traditional rate stats alone.  I believe this, you don't have to.

Ok well if you get the time to read it, that article is pretty pertinent to what you're talking about. In a nutshell it says there aren't any trends, period. The guys who lead the league in preventing hits on balls in play one year are often the worst at it the next. There is no correlation from one year to the next.

Interesting.  Thanks for the heads up - I'll avoid reading the article as long as I can so I can hold on to my wild theory.

I am curious as how exit velocity will help fill in the gaps - what do you mean? Like knowing that 1/2 a guy's GB against a certain pitcher are sharply hit, while the other are soft dribblers tells us.. ?

I am thinking in part about a scenario where a pitcher has success over a career despite a mediocre K rate and GB rate.  I thought about it a lot watching Janssen this year and how he seemed to the naked eye to induce a lot of weak swings.  However, I think I should read the quoted article before elaborating, as it may render my theories moot.

A quote from Padre's GM Kevin Towers

"Bullpen depth is almost as important as quality. You almost need to have five guys you trust from the sixth inning on. Starting pitchers don't go as deep into games these days, and if you depend on a couple of guys, you'll be using them every night."

Realistically, do we have five relievers who are trusted? Should trading Accardo even be talked about? We already lost Ryan (over use?) for a season, so should we (perhaps) put others at undue risk?

Also, I am waiting for the thread that can rank the GM's.

AFL wrapup from Matthew Pouliot includes remarks on Snider, Purcey, Santos and Romero:
http://www.rotoworld.com/content/features/column.aspx?sport=MLB&columnid=2&&articleid=29553&pg=3

"They are dying to move that guy", an official was quoted as saying in a Jayson Stark article regarding Miguel Tejada:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3121887

The winter meetings are a week away.  I would LOVE to see the Jays pick up Tejada to play SS in 2008 and to cover for Glaus at 3B if he gets suspended.  He could then move to 3B in 2009 and perhaps beyond.  The only problem is that I get the impression that Ryan will not be ready to go at 100% to start 2008, so trading a "power bullpen arm" (Accardo) might not be a very good idea.  I've read in two different articles, including Jays' Mailbag on their official website, the carefully chosen words, "ready in time to take part in spring training".  Taking part in spring training could mean nothing more than wind sprints, long toss, and breakfast with Zaun.  I'd feel a lot better if they'd say Ryan would be at 100% to start opening day.

I think that as a general rule, relievers are so incredibly variable in their performance from year to year that nobody has five trustworthy relievers. Other than an elite few, they don't exist. This time last year, we were talking about Frasor, League and Ryan as the 3 anchors in the bullpen. As it turns out, they were supplanted by Accardo, Janssen and Downs in some order. My point is that these guys are easier to find and harder to predict than (for example) quality middle infielders. Trading guys like Accardo or Janssen to fill a need while their value is high is advisable in a very weak FA market.

I've read in two different articles, including Jays' Mailbag on their official website, the carefully chosen words, "ready in time to take part in spring training".  Taking part in spring training could mean nothing more than wind sprints, long toss, and breakfast with Zaun.  I'd feel a lot better if they'd say Ryan would be at 100% to start opening day.

While I understand what you're saying, I'd imagine that - six months into rehab - he's well past long toss and is likely throwing from a mound.

Trading guys like Accardo or Janssen to fill a need while their value is high is advisable in a very weak FA market.

I agree. Several on this site have cited the likely increase in Accardo's trade value given his shiney new closer status, but it seems that those are the very people who are also now overly squeamish about breaking up the team's bullpen.

As we wait for the Yankees to make a deal with the Twins for Johan Santana, I wonder why this has to be so inevitable.  Why aren't the Jays in the Santana sweepstakes as well?  We've been talking since the off-season began about what the Jays have to offer teams for various middle or corner infielders, but I'm not sure that whatever the Yankees are going to offer couldn't somehow be matched or bettered by Toronto.  Surely the Twins don't really have an interest in making the richest team in baseball even better, and I'm not convinced the Jays lack the financial wherewithal to sign Johan to a long-term deal.  I don't really know what the Jays could put on the table to make the Twins listen, but I'd have everybody in the system except Rios, Halladay, and Hill available for a deal.  Johan would probably like pitching in front of such a strong defensive lineup, and the Jays can still score runs on occasion, so his chances for future Cy Young awards wouldn't be hurt by landing in Toronto.

Then there's the wet dream of running Santana, Halladay, and Burnett out there three out of every five games.  No matter what kind of offense the Jays will have next year, those three studs up front would make the Jays instant contenders, and a real threat to dominate in the playoffs.  I just don't see why we all have to concede Santana to the Yankees like it's already a done deal.  Come on, J.P., get creative, do something here.  At least give it a shot.  Hey, maybe he already did, who knows?

Grrr...I feel your pain, as I too am sickened by the Yankees and how it seems they are the inevitable landing spot for huge name players. But I dont think Toronto really meshes well as a trading partner for the Twins. The Twins want cheap major league ready players. Snider although a great prospect is not major league ready....the players you mentioned as untouchable would be really the only ones of Interest to the Twins. They need a CF and I think Toronto would have to throw Rios's name into the mix to get things started. I think Rios and McGowan would do it. But I wouldn't do that trade if I was JP as McGowan could have a better year next year than Santana.  Would they take Rios and Marcum??? Would you make that trade?? The Yankees as much as I hate to say it match up fairly well though as their prospects are major league ready(hughes, joba, kennedy). The team I think should get into the talks is Texas....they have a deep group of prospects who are near major league ready and have always needed pitching.

I thought about the Jays trading for Santana too.  The reports are that the Yankees are offering Hughes, Melky Cabrera and another prospect speculated to be either Austin Jackson or Alan Horne.  I think that shipping McGowan, who has pitched close to a full season in the majors and might have more value than Hughes right now, with Lind and a lesser prospect could get the deal done.  I'm just not sure I'd pull the trigger.  Santana is arguably the best pitcher in the world right now, but his value seems to be at its highest and he may be starting to decline.  He's played in four seasons where he's logged over 200 innings, 2004-2007 inclusive.  His H9 rate has climbed steadily each year.  Last year he posted the highest HR9 rate of his entire major league career.  His BB9 rate has been rising since 2005 and he posted the highest BB9 rate of his career last year.  His 'short' listed height of 6' seems generous to me when looking at him, so I'd also be concerned that his frame would make him more susceptible to injury, a la Kazmir and Pedro Martinez.  Finally, he'll likely demand around a 7-year contract, meaning he'll be in his mid-30's by the time his contract is due to expire, a contract that will likely cost $20-$25 million per year.

Okay, I guess I'd probably make the trade, but only because McGowan's post TJ elbow has me worried that he'll be the next A.J. Burnett, great stuff but oft injured. 

Either way, I'd much rather see the Yankees have to give up a chunk of their future to get Santana than watch them sign him as a free agent next off-season.

I wouldn't trade Dustin McGowan for Johan Santana straight up.  I think there's about a 35% chance that McGowan is a better pitcher over the next seven years, and will likely cost over $100m less.  I'd take my chances on one of next year's potential FA class making it to the open market, rather than trading Dustin.

ayjackson,

I'd agree with you if it weren't for McGowan's elbow, but your point is valid.

Trading for Santana does not make sense for us as it not only add payroll to the team, and it would hurt the current ball club in so many ways that it just would not be helpful for us both short-term and long term. Alex Rios and Dustin McGowan would have to be part of any package involved in a Santana trade, in addition to one or two prospect depending whether it is Travis Snider. No matter how good Santana is, he by himself does not offset the lost of Rios and McGowan. While McGowan may never be as good as Santana, over the next couple years, he will be much cheaper and could be one of the best righthanders in baseball. Trading for Santana is just not something that is practical, for both short and long term.

See, I'm not so sure.  Lets say hypothetically, they want Rios, Marcum and Accardo.

I think we have the depth at MR to cover the loss of Accardo.  With Rios, although some of you may not want to hear this, has a good chance to become addition by subtraction.  We could put a full time lefty in his spot (Lind), with a RH platoon partner.  Their combined stats should be easily able to cover the loss of Alex Rios.  Consider that the "black hole" in LF of Johnson/Stairs platoon significantly out performed Alex Rios.  And Santana >>> Marcum, as much as I like Shaun, he isn't Johan.  Adding one of the best and most consistant pitchers in Baseball?  I'll do that in a heartbeat.

Sports Illustrated is reporting that the Twins want Jacoby Ellsbury and one of Bucholz/Lester from the Red Sox.  Based on that, McGowan and Rios is way too much.  Rios and Marcum would be in the ball park.  I'm not sure that the Twins would want Rios since he is getting expensive and has similar service time to Mauer and Morneau, but who knows.

I'm surprised the Dodgers aren't in things yet - I read somewhere that talks with the O's over Bedard had just stalled.  Billingsley and Kemp would likely land them Santana.

Regardless, I think this is going to be a fantastic ten days through the Winter Meetings.

Umm... I'm not sure what definition of "outperform" you are using but :
 
Outperformed when placed in the correct situation.  AKA Stairs vs. RHP and Johnson vs. LHP.  A platoon in other words.  In otherwords, how the players should be used when you factor out things such as manager ineptitude.

.325 .381 .532 vs. LHP for Johnson

.288 .364 .567 vs. RHP for Stairs

Averages out to over a 900 OPS LF, which is better than Alex Rios (and the rest of the team) and his stat padding vs. LHP.

Cliffs:

- His rehab from shoulder surgery seems to be going well. The shoulder is feeling better already, though he won't know for sure until he starts lifting weights again.

- Wells expects to be 100% for spring training.

- Dissapointed with how last year went, but endorses JP's plan to keep the team together.

- Aaron Hill was recently married. Wells, Overbay, Glaus, J-mac, and others were in attendance.

Wells comes across as a smart guy, as usual. He speaks well and keeps an even keel. I'm glad that our franchise players seem to have such strong character.

The rumour mill is running wild with starting pitcher trades.  Santana, Berard and Haren have been the target of deep pocket and deep prospect teams such as the Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets.  As things unfold next week, does JP start getting nibbles on Burnett, as the losers in the sweepstakes look for consolation prizes?

If I'm JP, unless I get 2 MLB ready or near ready A/B+ players in return, I wait until July.  But as the market gets set, is it that unreasonable?  Berard will be an interesting comparable.  He's averaged two more starts per year over the past three seasons than Burnett and is cheaper, but raw stats are quite comparable.  I'm not sure the O's are really serious, unless the haul is really serious.

Gary Cathcart was formally announced as the Fisher Cats new manager today.  Ken Joyce and Dave LaRoche return as hitting and pitching coach respectively.

Lansing filled their managerial vacancy by promoting Clayton McCullough who managed the Jays gulf coast team this past season.  Justin Mashore will be the hitting coach, a move up from Auburn where he coached in 2007.  Tom Signore returns as pitching coach.