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Zach Stewart was the headliner on Thursday as he showed why the Jays are excited about his future.  There were no angels on this day, at least not for the bullpen, who conspired to lose the game in the ninth inning.  The Jays were in some ways lucky to get to the ninth inning tied, Jeremy Guthrie had been knocking them down but he injured his back and had to leave the game after five innings.  His replacement, Jim Johnson, was not really ready and what usually happens in these situations is that the pitcher can be hit around.  The Jays did and scored twice but EE snuffed out the rally by hitting into a DP.  That was it until Jon Rauch gave up three ground balls, only one of which was hit hard, in the ninth.

But let's get back to Stewart and look at his pitch chart from Brooks Baseball:

Pitch Statistics
Pitch Type Avg Speed Max Speed Avg H-Break Avg V-Break Count Strikes / % Swinging Strikes / % Linear Weights Time to Plate
FF (FourSeam Fastball) 91.08 92.8 -6.13 9.66 56 38 / 67.86% 0 / 0.00% -1.1820 0.416
CH (Changeup) 83.80 86.5 -6.87 2.89 3 2 / 66.67% 0 / 0.00% -0.0617 0.448
SL (Slider) 82.88 84.5 1.55 -0.06 15 8 / 53.33% 2 / 13.33% 0.9076 0.450
FC (Cutter) 88.70 88.7 -4.81 7.34 1 0 / 0.00% 0 / 0.00% 0.0613 0.423
FT (TwoSeam Fastball) 90.05 91.8 -9.31 9.12 11 7 / 63.64% 0 / 0.00% -0.5360 0.424
Pitch classifications provided by the Gameday Algorithm and may be inaccurate.

 

From the chart we see Stewart threw mainly fastballs and sliders, only three of his pitches were off-speed.  His fastball has excellent movement both downwards and horizontally.  That movement earns him a lot of groundballs and doubleplays.  He will have days when the ground balls find the gaps but Thursday was not really that day.  The linear weight for his slider showed it to be his weakest pitch on this day.  Also Stewart had only two swinging strikes but with the movement of his pitches he induced a lot of weak swings.

In his pre-game interviews on Wednesday Stewart talked about his change-up and curveball but he only threw three changes and no curves.  In watching some of the game I thought I saw one or two curves but pitchfx did not see them.  I thought the pitch that hit Reynolds was a curveball.

In his first start Stewart was probably keyed up with adrenaline.  Perhaps that is why the change and curve didn't feature more.

But it's tough to complain about anything from Stewart on Thursday, it was an excellent start.

 

The Jays now play 15 straight inter-league games ending with Roy Halladay's return to Toronto.  Inter-League has not been favourable for the Jays over the last few years, will this year change that trend?

After the game Casey Janssen went on the DL and John McDonald was recalled, the bullpen is back down to the normal 12 members.

With the upcoming games in the NL parks, no DH, Juan Rivera and EE will likely ride the pine which is not a bad thing.

What else is going on?

It's a Wonderful Life, for Zach Stewart | 58 comments | Create New Account
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#2JBrumfield - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#236892) #
From the few innings I did catch, I was impressed with Stewart's composure.  It was nice to see someone wearing #56 pitch well again.  I will agree seeing less of #10 will be a very good thing.  I love how Buck Martinez predicted the double play EE hit into in the sixth inning.  The O's losing streak here had to end sometime.  Still, it sucks being below .500 heading into interleague play. 

Meantime, The Globe & Mail talks about the Jays and <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-refuse-to-focus-on-canadian-players/article2064622/?utm_medium=Feeds%3A%20RSS%2FAtom&utm_source=Home&utm_content=2064622">scouting Canadian players</a>.

At this year’s first-year player draft (college and high school), the Blue Jays chose seven Canadians among the 55 they selected – more than double any other MLB team. And the team has nearly doubled the number of scouts on staff to about 30 to try to make sure no player, Canadian or otherwise, falls between the cracks.  Even then, Anthopoulos says, his top priority is not to make sure his team drafts all the top-rated Canadians.

In non-Jays related news, Seattle is calling up the number two pick of the 2009 draft, Dustin Ackley.  He is expected to play tonight at Safeco Field when the M's take on Philadelphia.  The Seattle Times' Larry Stone hopes he turns out better than the Mariners <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/thehotstoneleague/2015337355_its_been_awhile_since_the.html?syndication=rss">first pick in 2005</a>.

TamRa - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 03:56 AM EDT (#236896) #
Strange but true (and completely useless) fact:

Adam Lind had a week long slump in mid-April which brought his OPS all the way down to .597, and he started heating up on April 19 - from there until now he's hitting .400 with a 1.226 OPS

The common (mis-)perception is that Rivera stepped up while Lind was hurt, but it's actually not true.

Before April 19, Rivera's OPS was .342

From April 19 to the last game Lind played before going on the DL, Rivera hit for an .876 OPS

While Lind was on the DL, Rivera hit for a .681 OPS

Since Lind has returned, Rivera's OPS is .855

Weird.



Chuck - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 07:31 AM EDT (#236898) #

Speaking of misconceptions, isn't it odd that Bautista hit like Babe Ruth when "protected" by the weak-hitting Rivera and Hill and has slumped while being "protected" by the scorching hot Lind?

These are all small samples, of course, but you'd think the little bit of evidence that refutes the idea of protection would be enough to get the broadcasters to stop speaking of it as an undisputable truth. But Martinez and Tabler are heavily invested in their cliches.

Speaking of interesting takes on the world, here are some metrics concoted by an ex-GM. Yes, OPSBIs. It's absolutely stunning.

Mike Green - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#236901) #
Old movie references in a header, Gerry?  Very nice, and perfect timing with Father's Day upcoming.  I am still waiting for the Hit Tracker version of "Gone, with the wind" or Juan Rivera in "Some Like it Hot".



brent - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#236903) #
Baseball America's draft signing tracker has more names signed for the Jays than the MLB team's website. I am glad to see more players signing up.
bpoz - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#236908) #
Good game by Z Stewart. Does anyone know the truth!!! I just had to say TRUTH.

What is Z Stewart's size. 6'1" 170lb or 6'2" 205lb. Also it seems he is no longer a power pitcher. Alan Ashby said that he won't overpower hitters. The chart on his pitching was good to see.

So is he now more of a J Litsch type pitcher rather than K Drabek type.

Thanks in advance.
ayjackson - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#236913) #

Anybody else think it's more than convenient that the only right-handed reliever with options left is on the major league DL? 

"Hey Casey, would you like to spend the next two weeks in Vegas or in the clubhouse resting?"

Mike Green - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#236915) #
Casey J's ready, better watch your speed
trouble ahead, trouble behind
and you know that notion just crossed my mind


I guess that it would be unethical for the organization to arrange a non-lethal hit on an underperforming reliever who is out of options...

Magpie - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#236917) #
Meanwhile, which of the guys who began the year in the Jays bullpen has managed this:

Year   W  L    W-L%   ERA    G  GS  GF  CG  SV    IP   H  R  ER HR  BB IBB  SO HBP  BK  WP  BF  ERA+  WHIP      
2011   1  0   1.000   2.35  20   0   6   0  0  23.0  16  6   6  1  11   0  15   0   0   0  95  176  1.174   
krose - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#236918) #
ay and MG

Don't know where you're going with such a suggestion. Sounds like Deadhead thinking to me.

China fan - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#236919) #
Magpie, that's David Purcey of course.  It's only been 20 innings since he left the Jays, so it's a bit early to say whether the Jays erred in dumping him.  But it's possible that he might be one of those "change of scenery" cases, where he just couldn't get the right focus and concentration until he realized that he could be in danger of losing his career if he didn't get it together.  Maybe he'd suffered so much failure in Toronto (as a starter and reliever) that he needed a fresh start somewhere else.  Or -- maybe the Jays made a mistake in getting rid of him.  With pitchers especially,  youneverknow.
John Northey - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#236920) #
A few ex-Jay relievers...
Here in 2010...
Gregg 3.29 ERA in 27 1/3 IP with 13 saves
Downs 1.31 ERA in 20 2/3 IP
Tallet 7.15 ERA in 11 1/3 IP
Purcey 2.35 ERA in 23 IP
Accardo 4.50 ERA in 32 IP
Hill yet to pitch at any level

Here in 2009...
League 4.03 ERA in 29 IP with 19 saves (4-20 W-K)
Hayhurst 2.76 ERA in 32 2/3 IP (starting) in AAA

Interesting eh? League is really pitching well but had bad luck with runs early on (that W-K ratio is great, 4 game stretch where he allowed 10 runs over 3 IP then none since).
greenfrog - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#236922) #
I managed to catch the 6th and 7th innings of Stewart's start on Sportsnet. I thought he was impressive, although he seemed to get a few key calls that other umpires might not have given him. If nothing else, it should be a relief to watch someone who not only has decent stuff but also reasonable command of his pitches. He's not going to strike out a ton, so having a good defense behind him would help.

Purcey has done pretty well since leaving Toronto - good for him - but the 11:15 BB:K ratio is a bit of a red flag.
Magpie - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#236924) #
Maybe he'd suffered so much failure in Toronto (as a starter and reliever)

Possible, although his "failure" as a reliever really boils down to a bad week. That said, in the great scheme of things, losing a useful relief pitcher isn't (or shouldn't be) a big deal. There is no shortage of pitchers who can help you.
Mike Green - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#236925) #
There is no shortage of pitchers who can help you.

....which is why it is not a good idea to spend multi-millions on relievers unless one is sure that they are really, really good.  Mistakes, I've made a few...
Magpie - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#236926) #
Hill yet to pitch at any level

I thought Hill retired this spring when he didn't make the Marlins roster.
Original Ryan - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#236927) #
Another former 2010 Blue Jays reliever is Taylor Buchholz. He's posted a 3.12 ERA in 26 innings with 26 K's for the Mets, although he's on the D.L. at present with some shoulder issues.

uglyone - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#236928) #

In order of xfip:


C.Janssen (29, $1.1m/1yrs): 27.2ip, 8.1k/9, 2.6bb/9, .313babip, 2.93era, 2.23fip, 3.10xfip
B.League (28, $2.3m/1yrs): 29.0ip, 6.2k/9, 1.2bb/9, .281babip, 4.03era, 2.64fip, 3.18xfip
M.Rzepczynski (25, $0.4m/1yrs): 27.2ip, 8.5k/9, 3.9bb/9, .288babip, 3.58era, 3.64fip, 3.36xfip
S.Downs (35, $5.0m/3yrs): 20.2ip, 4.8k/9, 2.2bb/9, .215babip, 1.31era, 3.24fip, 3.44xfip
L.Perez (26, $0.4m/1yrs): 20.2ip, 7.0k/9, 3.1bb/9, .317babip, 3.92era, 3.97fip, 3.65xfip
F.Francisco (31, $4.0m/1yrs): 19.0ip, 10.0k/9, 5.2bb/9, .340babip, 5.21era, 5.22fip, 3.68xfip
S.Camp (35, $2.3m/1yrs): 32.1ip, 4.7k/9, 2.0bb/9, .321babip, 4.18era, 3.94fip, 3.69fip
C.Villanueva (27, $1.4m/1yrs): 24.1ip, 7.8k/9, 3.7bb/9, .148babip, 1.48era, 3.53fip, 3.82xfip
J.Frasor (33, $3.5m/1yrs): 28.1ip, 7.6k/9, 3.2bb/9, .232babip, 2.86era, 4.37fip, 3.98xfip
D.Purcey (29, $0.4m/1yrs): 23.0ip, 5.9k/9, 4.3bb/9, .221babip, 2.35era, 3.65fip, 4.28xfip
J.Rauch (32, $3.5m/1yrs): 28.0ip, 6.1k/9, 2.9bb/9, .238babip, 4.50era, 4.88fip, 4.40xfip
B.Tallet (33, $0.8m/1yrs): 11.1ip, 6.4k/9, 3.2bb/9, .308 babip, 7.15era, 7.19fip, 4.41xfip
O.Dotel (37, $3.5m/1yrs): 17.1ip, 10.9k/9, 5.7bb/9, .256babip, 5.19era, 5.78fip, 4.63xfip
J.Accardo (29, $1.1m/1yrs): 32.0ip, 5.6k/9, 4.2bb/9, .317babip, 4.50era, 4.83fip, 4.63xfip
K.Gregg (33, $5.0m/2yrs): 27.1ip, 7.6k/9, 6.3bb/9, .267babip, 3.29era, 4.78fip, 4.86xfip
Mike Green - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#236929) #
Rivera's in left and Patterson's in center for tonight's game.  I guess that these are the slightly tepid hands, while Davis is ice cold.  All the hot ones are in Vegas.

Farrell is effectively sending a message to Reyes to keep the ball down on pain of extra-base hits.

92-93 - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#236930) #
Impressed by Purcey's post-Jays results? You may like to hear that Danny Farquhar has been very solid since the Jays re-acquired him and made him Las Vegas' closer. The 24 year old has been on fire since the start of May - 18.1ip 9h 1r 5bb 16k 0hr for a 3-0 record with 6 saves.
bpoz - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#236931) #
Mike Green, That is an interesting thought on spending $ on relievers.

IMO as relievers Carlos V, C Janssen & J Fraser have pitched very well so far.Until recently also Zep. As a rookie L Perez has has given up 9 ER 7 to Bos in 2.2IP & 2ER to NYY in 4IP, he has shut out everyone else.
I also like Camp he seems to succeed in some very key situations IMO.

IMO Francisco, Dotel & Rauch have been under performing so far. But they could get hot.

I suppose Fraser, Dotel, Francisco, Rauch & Camp are considered good setup men with the possibility of closing successfully. That quantity & quality will cost $.

I know AA wanted to protect his young SP staff, ie let them get the wins that they have earned by having them saved. This success will improve confidence & Development for the young guys.

Magpie - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#236936) #
You may like to hear that Danny Farquhar has been very solid since the Jays re-acquired him and made him Las Vegas' closer.

Can't complain about that, although last time I looked Detroit and Oakland were in the American League. But I think what irritates me most about losing Purcey is not so much losing David Purcey as seeing this kind of move made on the basis of, quite literally, one bad week. Goes against everything I believe!

But nobody knows anything, right? After all, the Jays two most effective starters, aside from Ricky Romero, are two guys who couldn't cut it as starting pitchers in the National League. Just the ticket for the AL East. How did we not see that?!
Shane - Friday, June 17 2011 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#236937) #

"But I think what irritates me most about losing Purcey is not so much losing David Purcey as seeing this kind of move made on the basis of, quite literally, one bad week"

But is it though? He'd been in the TO system for a long while, and still has major issues with BB's. So they moved on from Purcey a week into the season, instead of in the offseason. Seems ho-hum to me. Better pitchers were/are available for TO in their own system. Seemed fair to move on for everyone.

Magpie - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#236938) #
He'd been in the TO system for a long while, and still has major issues with BB's. So they moved on from Purcey a week into the season, instead of in the offseason. Seems ho-hum to me.

Well, that's who he is. He walks guys. So did Al Leiter, and it didn't stop him from being a useful pitcher. And as a relief pitcher, in the AL East last season, Purcey was certainly an effective pitcher - mainly because coming out of the bullpen, he was able to drastically reduce his hits allowed. And he pitched well in the spring, and he pitched well in the first week of the season. Then he had one bad week and he was gone.

But I agree that on one level it's certainly a ho-hum move, simply because you should always be able to find pitchers of the quality of David Purcey to fill out your bullpen. There is no shortage of useful pitchers, so it should be easy.

In fact, it might even be preferred to hauling in guys like... oh, Octavio Dotel.
Original Ryan - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 12:03 AM EDT (#236939) #
The Orioles have apparently designated Jeremy Accardo for assignment.
TamRa - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 12:55 AM EDT (#236944) #
to me Purcey's exit was 40% the apparent (though brief) regression and 60% the knowledge they had too many pitchers they HAD to keep in the majors.

In a sense, it serves as a counterpoint to "you can't have too much pitching" - or, at least, you can have too many pitchers that you can't send down.

The only regret I have is this: once they had obtained Francisco and knew what was coming, they could have (and I would have) immediately gotten on the horn to find out who they could deal for a good return BEFORE one of them went south. Purcey might well have been a valuable chip about half-way through ST



uglyone - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 03:37 AM EDT (#236946) #
MLB Relief Numbers:

L.Perez (26): 20.2ip, 7.0k/9, 3.1bb/9, 3.92era, 3.97fip, 3.65xfip
D.Purcey (29): 57.0ip, 7.4k/9, 4.1bb/9, 3.16era, 3.66fip, 4.32xfip

AAA Relief Numbers:

D.Purcey (28): 18.2ip, 11.1k/9, 1.5k/bb, 1.55whip, 3.38era
D.Farquhar (24): 32.0ip, 9.0k/9, 2.5k/bb, 1.35whip, 2.53era

Not only did we lose nothing by moving Purcey and calling up Perez, but we also got a much younger and more controllable asset who's already putting up better AAA numbers than Purcey ever did.

And I'd say that pretty much every other team in baseball would have called up Farquhar by now. He's by far the best reliever on the 51s and clearly has earned a callup. He's earned that callup this year more than Purcey earned a callup last year, to be honest.
China fan - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 07:44 AM EDT (#236949) #

It's interesting to see Perez and Reyes both emerging as useful major-league pitchers at the age of 26.  Of course it's too early to be certain about either of them, but Reyes had another excellent game last night, and he was facing a very good team.  He's been gradually improving, with occasional setbacks, as the season wears on.  He's beginning to develop some consistency and confidence.  So I'm very optimistic about him.  (Who predicted that he would survive longer in the majors this year than Cecil and Drabek?)  Perez has had only 20 innings in the majors, so he's even more difficult to predict, but he's also shown that he can pitch at this level.  Lesson:  even if a pitcher is 26 and not beloved by the top-prospect lists, a smart group of scouts and managers can still find potential in them.  (Especially if they're left-handed.)

On another note: a lot of people automatically blamed Patterson for the inside-the-park home run last night, but look closely at the video, which is on MLB.com.  Patterson was calling for the ball, and he would have easily had it.  If he hadn't ducked away at the last minute, Bautista would probably be on the DL today.  Given a choice between one run (in a game the Jays ultimately won) and a highly dangerous collision that could result in the loss of your team's best player for weeks or months, I think Patterson made the right choice.  If Patterson can be faulted for anything, he could maybe be faulted for not yelling loudly enough.  But quite possibly the crowd noise was a factor, and maybe Bautista wouldn't have heard him no matter how loudly he yelled.

Shane - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#236950) #

"Well, that's who he is. He walks guys"

Yip. And he was never able to improve on that, and now he's happily gone. Now he'll pinball around MLB with numerous teams growing weary of it too.

bpoz - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#236956) #
I am enjoying reading all the comments by Bauxites concerning our pitching...success, failure, uncertainty & surprises.

I just looked at the opponents for some SPs so far. I wanted to see how often they faced NYY, Bos & TB. Both Romero & Reyes 5 games of 14, Morrow 3 of 10 and Litsch 4 of 8. Some detail about Litsch 17 of 24 ER given up to the above Trio of teams. I have heard that we have to play them at .500 ball to be contenders. If that is accurate then contending in 2012 may be doubtful. Our pitchers have to improve to a higher level than others because of that trio of strong teams.

That is a big obstacle. All I can clearly remember is Zep striking out about 7 NY Yankees in about 3 innings late last year. He won that game too. I hope my memory is reasonably accurate because I don't want that treasure taken away from me.

I like to judge/evaluate relievers the following way, in say 10 games if in 9 or so they are not scored upon, I judge them quite successful and basically ignore how horrible that 1 bad game is. That to me is being reliable. Giving up a run in 3 or 4 games of the 10 total to me is less reliable. There is still inherited runners to consider and probably more considerations that I don't know about. Defense, double plays...
Chuck - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#236957) #

I wanted to see how often they faced NYY, Bos & TB.

TB is scoring 4.06 runs per game. The league average is 4.30. No need to lump them in with the league's strongest offenses. Pitchers should be happy to face the Rays these days.

Thomas - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#236960) #
On another note: a lot of people automatically blamed Patterson for the inside-the-park home run last night, but look closely at the video, which is on MLB.com. Patterson was calling for the ball, and he would have easily had it.

In my view, they are blaming him correctly. Bautista isn't faultless on the play, but Patterson made two mistakes, in my opinion. The first was that he didn't repeatedly call for the ball. It's his ball and, if he's playing CF, he's got to have the confidence to be able to call for the balls he can field and rely on the others to get out of the way. Secondly, once he decided to defer to Bautista, he didn't commit to getting out of the way. He basically ducks his head and the ball goes just over his head. If he's going to get out of the way, he has to commit to do doing that and take a step or two forward. It seems to me like Bautista isn't sure what Patterson was doing. He had time to reach the ball, but he seemed as if he may have been worried about a collision and stuck his glove out towards the ball.

Patterson has to make a decision on one course of action or another towards the end of that plate and he did neither. Maybe Bautista should have deferred earlier, but as the play developed Patterson should have kept insisting he had the ball and eventually Bautista would have deferred. What happened yesterday is better than a collision involving Bautista, but it wouldn't have happened with Davis in centre.

electric carrot - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#236961) #
I think the blue jays are getting ready to go on a little bit of a roll.  I like how the rotation looks right now (Romero, Villenova, Morrow, Reyes, Stewart) and I think we have a good chance to win every game we play.  I think Farrell has the bullpen figured a little better, and the hitting -- well if we could just somehow get an uninjured Lawrie at third -- we'd be ready to kill. 
China fan - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#236963) #

My viewing of the video is a little different.  First, you can clearly see Patterson vigorously waving his glove at Bautista -- twice -- in a sweeping "get out of the way" gesture as he runs to the ball.  He is doing this from the beginning of his run to the end.   He is too far from the camera for us to see his face, but presumably he is yelling as he waves his glove at Bautista.  So I think he was being pretty insistent.  At the end of the play, he does more than duck his head -- he also shortens his step drastically and comes to virtually a full stop, allowing Bautista to go behind him (when Patterson realizes that Bautista is going for the ball).  The Reds announcer, on the video, says he can see Patterson calling for the ball "the entire time." He says the problem is completely due to Bautista who "gets in the wrong spot."

Gerry - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#236966) #
The Fisher Cats were n Akron on Thursday and they had a night game. They cancelled BP and found a bar that had the extra innings package and they all got to watch their ex-teammate pitch against the Orioles.
uglyone - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#236967) #
I think the blue jays are getting ready to go on a little bit of a roll. I like how the rotation looks right now (Romero, Villenova, Morrow, Reyes, Stewart) and I think we have a good chance to win every game we play. I think Farrell has the bullpen figured a little better, and the hitting -- well if we could just somehow get an uninjured Lawrie at third -- we'd be ready to kill.

so, SO much depends on Brandon Morrow, IMO. he could singlehandedly stabilize the team and send it on a hot streak by giving it a reliable #2 guy after Ricky to go along with the seemingly effective Reyes/Villy/Stewart trio at the bottom. If he can do what he did in the last 2/3 of last year for us starting now, suddenly we look much MUCH better by adding a legit 1-2 SP punch to our already dominating 1-2 Bautista-Lind punch in the lineup. If we get an SP pair to go with that hitting pair, then suddenly we have a real contention worthy core to build on, with plenty of young talent to fill in behind them.

of course, Morrow could continue with the meltdowns and keep throwing our rotation way off it;s rhythm and totally sabotage our season singlehandedly as well.
China fan - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#236969) #
I agree with uglyone.  In their current pitching depth chart, as usual, the Jays have a lot of quantity but not much quality.  They have a lot of pitchers who can handle the number 4 or 5 spot in the rotation, but not a clear number 2 or 3 pitcher.  The list of major-league-calibre Jays starters is impressively long:  Romero, Morrow, Reyes, Villanueva, Stewart, Drabek, Cecil, Litsch, and probably Mills and soon Alvarez.  That's at least 8 pitchers.  But aside from Romero, they're all unproven or inconsistent. (Morrow has a great half-season under his belt from last year, but that's not enough to prove anything.)  The Jays need two or three of those guys to step up and turn into aces or above-average pitchers at least.   Morrow is a good bet.  Potentially Drabek or Stewart.  Maybe even Reyes, Litsch or Cecil.  But if the Jays can develop two or three of those guys into consistently above-average pitchers who can go 7 or 8 innings in most outings, the whole team will improve dramatically.
Chuck - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#236970) #

He is too far from the camera for us to see his face, but presumably he is yelling as he waves his glove at Bautista.  So I think he was being pretty insistent.

I agree. I really hate to play mind reader, but this looked like a case of office politics. Bautista has grown comfortably into his role as alpha dog on the team. Trouble is, he sometimes takes that attitude into the outfield. He doesn't seem terribly deferential towards Davis and he certainly overstepped his bounds with Patterson. Neither Davis nor Patterson seem willing to assert their captaincy when playing center field, and that's certainly not helping. Bautista needs to ratchet it back just a little and the center fielder, whoever it is, needs to remind Bautista who the boss is.

Mike Green - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#236972) #
Cecil or Rzepczynski have at least as good a shot at being an above-average starter, in my view, than Morrow. The romance of upside continues to hold sway.
Magpie - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#236974) #
now he's happily gone.

With his innings being given to: a) older guys, who b) cost a lot more, and c:) haven't pitched as well, this season. Not the sort of thing that normally makes one happy, but different strokes for different folks...
rtcaino - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#236975) #
Cecil or Rzepczynski have at least as good a shot at being an above-average starter, in my view, than Morrow. The romance of upside continues to hold sway.

Morrow's shot at being an elite starter has to be factored in. Which I suspect is somewhat greater than Cecil's or Rzep's.
Spifficus - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#236977) #

Cecil or Rzepczynski have at least as good a shot at being an above-average starter, in my view, than Morrow. The romance of upside continues to hold sway.

Cecil I'll agree on, but with Rzep I just don't see it in the pitches or control record. He has a wipeout slider that he uses 30%+ of the time, a sinker with good movement but charitably fringe-average velocity (in the rotation), and a shrug-inducing changeup. Out of the bullpen, his fastball has gone up 3-4 ticks while maintaining its movement, and allowing him to effectively junk what looks like a 4-seamer. That gives him the reliable two weapons he needs to be a good-or-better reliever. In the rotation, I don't see a true weapon vs righties, or the command to make up for it.

China fan - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#236978) #
Also, is it realistic to think that the Jays would even contemplate a rotation tryout for Rzepczynski this year or next year?  We can debate his potential success as a starter until the cows come home, but I'm skeptical that the opportunity would even arise.  The Jays like Zep as a reliever; he's still learning that job; he appears to have occasional command issues; and the Jays have a ton of other options for the rotation, at least 8 or 9 as listed in my earlier post, with more queuing up in New Hampshire with good chances of being ready next year.  Unless several rotation pitchers are injured simultaneously, I'm not sure if Zep will ever get a serious chance at the rotation.
electric carrot - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#236979) #
The romance of upside continues to hold sway.

yup!  I would use the adjective wisdom but I can live with romance.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#236981) #
It's true. Morrow does have a chance of being an elite starter, but even if he does, it's 50-50 or less that it occurs in his pre-free-agency years.

Anyways, my point is that I do not agree that the club's success turns in any way upon Morrow. They do need some development from several of their promising pitchers, and it would obviously be optimal if Morrow developed into Tom Seaver tomorrow, but the idea that lockdown #1/#2 starters are part and parcel of most winning clubs is simply not true.
uglyone - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#236982) #
well, Lester/Beckett, Price/Shields ain't hurting their team, that's for sure.

And as crappy as Morrow has been this year, somehow his peripherals are still as good as any of those guys. But the real tease is that in his first full year as a starter last year, after a rough first couple of months, he did do this for us from June on: 89.1ip, 1.15whip, 3.35era. If he can finish this season the same as he did last season (and his periphals continue to insist that he should), then that'll be a pretty huge boost, IMO.

Thomas - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#236983) #
So I think he was being pretty insistent.

If he was being truly insistent, he would have caught the ball or there would have been a collision.

China fan - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#236984) #
In my list of Jays pitchers and rotation candidates upthread, I forgot to mention McGowan. He is now pitching simulated games in Florida. Anthopoulos said today that McGowan hit 96 mph and averaged 95 in his latest two-inning stint.  (Source: a tweet from Shi Davidi a few minutes ago.)  If McGowan can return to full strength, the depth chart gets even more crowded, and I don't see how Zep gets a look-in.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#236985) #
Dustin McGowan's chances of emerging as a reliable starter are considerably less than Zep's. I am pulling him for him, but for every Chris Carpenter, there are 10 pitchers who have flamed out.
Shane - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#236988) #

"With his innings being given to: a) older guys, who b) cost a lot more, and c:) haven't pitched as well, this season."

AA had already signed those veteran free-agent/traded for guys before he 'dumped' Purcey, so talk to him - once Purcey was out, no veteran/high $$$ took his place. Purcey's spot then, and later on this season will be filled with minimum $$$ guys out of the TO farm system ie. Perez etc. (and hey, I didn't say I was pro-signing Dotels, Rauch's and the like dude. Peace man.)

Mike Green - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#236990) #
Morrow's BABIP this year has been consistent with the number of line drives he has allowed. Last year was weird, though. Hopefully, the worm is turning.
Magpie - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#236991) #
so talk to him

Yeah, he's the guy! (And peace to you too, mi compadre!)

Again, my thing is not so much David Purcey (even if he's been better this season that Rauch, Dotel, and Francisco - I'll happily admit that it wouldn't really be all that shocking if he'd been worse than all three.) No, it's the one bad week that makes me crazy. Crazy, I tell you! That was the whole basis for cutting him loose, and that really, really disturbs me. I understand it was a really bad week, and the fans and everyone were screaming for a scapegoat... but still. This is baseball. One week means nothing, nothing!

Well, unless it's in October I suppose.
TamRa - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#236992) #
I think the "Morrow Meltdown" meme is a bit overstated. We pretty much all agreed that he was sabatoged in that Detroit game by Molina/Patterson - that's 2 less out and 5 more earned runs right there. (takes his ERA coming into tonight down to 4.75 even if you assume he came out of the game after that 4th inning)

Other than that, he has two really bad outings in 10 starts coming into tonight. Even counting that Detroit fiasco, he came into the last previous start with a 4.50 ERA - it's just that that one start was so VERY bad that it wrecks the sample.

Tonight will do a lot to help that. He's already shaved over half a run off that ERA. With that alternate universe Detroit 4th, it would have been 3.55

that's not to say the bad outings don't count, just to say that most of the time he's been just fine. the occasional strange outlier notwithstanding.

For my part, when I look ahead at the schedule I take it as a given that if Romero or Morrow is pitching we're in real good shape for a win unless the other guy is Felix or some such.
TamRa - Saturday, June 18 2011 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#236993) #
tonight:

6.2 - 5 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 6 - 101/66

Only walk was the last hitter he faced. ERa down to 5.02 (or, in the alternate universe, 4.23)
bpoz - Sunday, June 19 2011 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#237000) #
We did not have any No Hitters last year. BUT we got teased by many games that looked promising and did turn out Great in general.

So what happened?

I am guessing that we have to be patient, maybe even very patient. IMO it was not a fluke, I hope so anyway.

Right now as CF said we have guys pitching as #4,5s, some like Morrow & Drabek we are forced to wait for more proof and others may only have a #4 ceiling(one of 200IP or 4-4.5Era).

That forced waiting IMO will prevent contending.
China fan - Sunday, June 19 2011 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#237007) #

Two items of Jays news today:

The Jays have signed Yunel Escobar to a two-year contract extension at $5-million per year.  They also have club options at $5-million per year for the following two years (2014 and 2015) which would be his free-agent years.  Looks like a good bargain to me.

Also, they've announced that Travis Snider has a concussion (from being hit in the helmet by a pitch) and is seeing a neurologist today.

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