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According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, "major-league sources" say the Jays are working on a trade that would send Troy Glaus to the Cardinals for Scott Rolen. Rosenthal reports that both players have agreed to waive their no-trade clauses.


Both players would have to pass physicals for the trade to go through. Rosenthal also thinks the Jays might be receiving cash in the deal. If the proposed transaction involves more than $1 million in cash changing hands, it needs to be approved by the commissioner's office too.

Wow. Thanks to Ryan Day and Halladayfan32 and Sheldon for the tip.
Jays to trade Glaus for Rolen? | 81 comments | Create New Account
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HollywoodHartman - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 01:52 PM EST (#178658) #
Thumbs up... I think...
Hal - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 01:57 PM EST (#178659) #

 It appears Rolen's offensive numbers are on the decline, but then again, Glaus could conceivably be headed in the same direction.

 

 

david wang - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:05 PM EST (#178660) #
Wouldn't this be a very linear move? Rolen hits for less power than Glaus but Rolen is probably better defensively, both have similar contract situations, both seemingly are on the decine and are the same age.

Hopefully without La Russas influence Rolen can go back to putting up his Philly stats
Ryan Day - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:08 PM EST (#178661) #
If you're confident that Rolen is going to be healthy (big if for a guy with back and shoulder issues), then he's not quite as good a hitter as Glaus, but much better defensively, and you've got him under contract for an extra year. If the Cards are picking up some salary, this could be a very good move.
ayjackson - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:09 PM EST (#178662) #

Can someone explain how this helps either team?  The only difference salary wise is that Rolen is guaranteed $12m through 2010, whereas Glaus has a player option through 2010 at the same amount.  We've traded away the rights to those compensatory picks if Glaus opts out.  I'd prefer the picks, truthfully.  Rolen's two years older as well.

Did we just get paid to take care of Larussa's problem?  Please tell me something else is coming back.

melondough - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:22 PM EST (#178663) #

It would definately provide the Jays with more team speed so I would be happy to see it happen.  Does anyone want to take a guess at what the batting order would look like?  It's a pitty Rolen doesn't bat left.

Chuck - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:22 PM EST (#178664) #

both seemingly are on the decine

Both are obviously in decline -- their ages and health history have seen to that -- but I'd argue that the red flags swirling around Rolen are far more prominent than those swirling around Glaus.

Glaus' offensive decline has been barely perceptible. OPS+ from ages 28 to 30: 126, 122, 120. His defense is certainly in decline and health issues are likely to be a recurring theme from here on out.

Rolen, a year older, has been hurt, a lot, and is coming off surgery. OPS+ from ages 28 to 31: 157, 84, 126, 89. His defense has probably taken a hit as he's aged, but he's still a plus defender.

Rolen has shown sub-400 SLG power in two of the past three years, health obviously being the key factor. But on what basis should we be optimistic that this will turn around, that he'll come back from injury yet again? If Rolen never again posted a 100 OPS+, it wouldn't shock me.

Add Rolen's health to the long list of things that have to break right for the Jays to win any more than 85 games in 2008. I'm not crazy about this deal at all.

ayjackson - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:24 PM EST (#178665) #

I wouldn't wager any money on a footrace between Glaus and Rolen.

Is Rolen a dead pull hitter?  Or is he like Glaus - he can take a pitch to right center if he's been slumping for a month or so?

Chuck - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:27 PM EST (#178666) #
Hopefully without La Russas influence Rolen can go back to putting up his Philly stats

With all due respect, that's awfully simplistic. Rolen played exceptionally well for LaRussa until injuries took their toll. Getting away from LaRussa won't magically make Rolen healthy or young again.
Chuck - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:32 PM EST (#178667) #

Is Rolen a dead pull hitter?  Or is he like Glaus - he can take a pitch to right center if he's been slumping for a month or so?

I'm not sure I know the answer to that, but Rolen's LHP/RHP career splits are less skewed than Glaus' (Rolen: 922/865, Glaus: 985/816). That's good, or at least would be if Rolen weren't one mother of a damaged piece of merchandise.

Mylegacy - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:36 PM EST (#178668) #

The guys on the Cards MLB message board seem to think Rolen's shoulder is "toast." However even with that his OPS against righties in 07 was 770. Glaus' was 728 against righties. Righties are two thirds of the at bats. Rolen's defensive ability is gold glovish. Rolen and JMac on the left, Hill and Overbay on the right - when the game is on the line our pitchers will have happy faces!

IF - Scott's shoulder surgery keeps his shoulder from getting worse we're improved aginst righties - which has been our BIG weakness offensively. IF - the surgery has improved his ability to hit we've made a real good deal.

However, even though Glaus was often reduced to a statue on defense - I love the guy. I'll miss his "pop-ups" that came down for homers in the third deck!

Mike T - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:36 PM EST (#178669) #
Just for the record Rolen is 13 months older than Glaus
Glaus - 8/3/76
Rolen - 4/4/75

So ya, Rolen is one step ahead in declining :-P
Bah, oh well, pick your poison...


Chuck - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:40 PM EST (#178670) #
IF - Scott's shoulder surgery keeps his shoulder from getting worse we're improved aginst righties - which has been our BIG weakness offensively. IF - the surgery has improved his ability to hit we've made a real good deal.

If I only had balls, said the queen, I'd be king.
ayjackson - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:45 PM EST (#178671) #
I would have preferred Eric Chavez, if we were looking at a veteren 3B with injury troubles, signed through 2010 at $12m per season.
Gerry - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:47 PM EST (#178672) #

This is a doctors trade, whichever teams doctors better understand the injury status of their player will win.  The players numbers are similar, it comes down to how many games they end up playing.  While St. Louis want to get rid of Rolen I think the Jays also want to get rid of Glaus.  I am sure we will hear that from Blair if this deal goes through.  Glaus is talented but doesn't work on his game and I think the Jays believe some of his repeat injuries could be lessened if he did work out more.

Adding Rolen will reduce the Jays parade of slugs on the bases, at least Rolen can run.

melondough - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:48 PM EST (#178673) #

From http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/baseballs_five_best_third_baseman written this past September.

BASEBALL'S BEST FIVE THIRD BASEMAN:

"Honorable Mention: Scott Rolen.

Rolen is in the midst of a very bad season. Injuries have led to slumps, and as a result, he is hitting more like Wayne Garrett than Scott Rolen. But when this guy is healthy, he is the best defensive third baseman in the game (as evidenced by his seven Gold Glove awards in the last nine years), and is among the top hitters at the hot corner (.283 career BA, 261 HR and 1,102 RBI -- all by age 32). Look for him to rebound next season."

Let's hope he is right.

Ryan Day - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:51 PM EST (#178674) #
But on what basis should we be optimistic that this will turn around,

I don't think you'd be optimistic if the Jays successfully cloned the 1927 Yankees, convinced them all to play for free, and use the profits to buy the Dominican Republic, so no, there's probably no basis for optimism here, either.
christaylor - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:53 PM EST (#178675) #
If this is all there is to the deal, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Glaus, despite public perception was a slightly above average fielder last year. Rolen is better against righties and an above average 3B but older and more of an injury risk. It prevents JP from scrambling for a 3B for the last year of his contract... but really, why make this deal unless Glaus is demanding a move? Or does  JP just want  STL 2006 left side of the IF.
ayjackson - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 02:57 PM EST (#178676) #

he is the best defensive third baseman in the game (as evidenced by his seven Gold Glove awards in the last nine years)

Is that evidence? 

Chuck - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:02 PM EST (#178677) #
Or does  JP just want  STL 2006 left side of the IF.

The 2006 Cardinals did win the World Series more recently than the 2002 Angels.
Mike Green - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:04 PM EST (#178678) #
Ah, a challenge trade.  That'll pique Magpie's interest.

Who really knows what is going on?  Superficially, the deal makes no sense, but what with the injuries, clubhouse issues and PED allegations, there is a whiff to this rumour.  Spring training can come none too soon.

King Ryan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:05 PM EST (#178679) #
At first I was confused by this deal, but, you know, the two players' projections aren't as far apart as I might have thought:

2008 ZiPS

Troy Glaus
.247 .350 .469

Scott Rolen
.255 .331 .398

Okay, the SLG is ugly, but if Rolen's shoulder surgery was a success and he can rebound, this could wind up being a steal.  Also, the Jays might well have the best team defense in the AL.  Rolen, McDonald and Hill scooping groundballs could spell another Cy Young for Halladay.

ayjackson - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:11 PM EST (#178680) #
That's 90 points of OPS difference, according to ZIPS - much more than I would have thought at first blush!
ChicagoJaysFan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:14 PM EST (#178681) #
  I am sure we will hear that from Blair if this deal goes through.

It's not Blair, but the Globe does have the headline of "Jays acquire Rolen" - the article doesn't state much more of a done-deal and it's done by the CP, but that headline is more assertive than anything else I've heard.

Story
ChicagoJaysFan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:16 PM EST (#178682) #
Sorry - missing a few words in there.  The article doesn't state it's much more of a done deal than any of the other articles posted.
Excalabur - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:19 PM EST (#178683) #
We [i]already[/i] have the best defense in the league, by quite a bit.  See hardball times's team defense graph for an easy-to-see representation of that. 

That being said, Rolen is still a better defender than Glaus: JP might be trying the Defense and Defense method for winning.  According to RZR, which is occasionally dodgy, Rolen is about 5% more likely to make a play on a ball in the 3B 'zone' (about .7 vs .75).  We shall see.

HollywoodHartman - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:20 PM EST (#178684) #
Can someone who is smarter than me compare the 2 players' defense? I think IF D is more important to our team than any other team in the league because we had 3 SPs in the top 10 of groundball %.
King Ryan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:20 PM EST (#178685) #
Well, the 90 points of OPS is mostly in the SLG, which has a wider scale.  Converting to GPA:

Troy Glaus: .266
Scott Rolen: .240

It's not an insignificant difference, but when you factor in defense, they are probably around equal, and if Rolen rebounds to even being an average hitter, he is pretty clearly superior. 

I think I like this trade.


Mylegacy - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:24 PM EST (#178686) #

IF Rolen's injury situation is stabilized by his surgery (even if not improved) this will give us a transition to Aherns in 2011.

Long term(ish) 3rd and SS are our two black holes. Reasonable guys in the system for other positions. Now if only Snider can play SS - JOKE.

JayFan0912 - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:48 PM EST (#178687) #
This trade seems ironic to me, in the sense that glaus underwent back problems and a shoulder surgery two years ago and now rolen goes through the same thing.

I think jp decided to focus on pitching and defence (rios for lincecum), which is why this trade makes sense, at least to him. Rolen is one of the best defensive 3B, and he is above average offensively. In a grand scheme, this trade makes the jays infied D better than it was last year, as you replace the only weak link with an elite defensive player. When hill and mcdonald are the double play combo, it will make guys like burnett and halladay way more effective as you would turn a lot more hits into outs, and outs into double plays.  In our lineup, I think rolen is a better fit than glaus, as we already have a guy who can smash the ball, draw walks, and crawl along the base path.

I make this trade regardless, it was hard to see glaus as a 3B for a few more seasons. He could barely walk.



Mike Forbes - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:52 PM EST (#178688) #

If Rolen can stay healthy he'll probably win another gold glove in '08. He has great instincts and soft hands with a decent arm. Rolen/JMac/Hill/Overbay would make for the best defensive infield in baseball when put together.

Obviously, I'm a big Scott Rolen fan and would like to see this trade go through. However, Rolen has injury issues just the same as Glaus. This could be a very interesting deal to follow next season.

christaylor - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:53 PM EST (#178689) #
Is .398 really his ZiPS projection? That's what his SLG was last year... James projects Rolen's SLG to be .475
Sherrystar - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 03:55 PM EST (#178690) #

If this trade becomes official, it will be interesting to see if there are any prospects involved.

The discussion on XM radio was that the teams are discussing prospects too. Nothing confirmed, just thought I'd pass on what was heard.

ayjackson - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:01 PM EST (#178691) #

I make this trade regardless, it was hard to see glaus as a 3B for a few more seasons. He could barely walk.

You do realize Glaus had plantar faciaitis?  Have you any idea how hard that can be sometimes?  There's a good chance that this deal shakes down as Glaus plus two top 50 draft choice in 2009 for Scott Rolen.

Thanks for the heads up on prospects, Sherrystar.

parrot11 - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:02 PM EST (#178692) #

If I'm JP I would insist on getting back a legit prospect as well (on top of the money). Basically, the Jays are taking on an extra year of salary (and possibly 2 if Glaus doesn't exercise his option), a player who hasn't shown that he's rebounded from his injury, and someone that they need to trade given his relationship with LaRussa. As much as I think that Glaus should be traded, the Jays are taking the larger risk acquiring Rolen. So I would want someone like Bryan Anderson who is good prospect, is blocked by Molina, and might be of some use for the Jays.

In Rolen they get substantially better D, lower K rate, lower walk rate, better speed, less power, a higher .avg, and a less skewed split. It adds a little versatility to the lineup, but the injury concerns scare me. That being said, I think that he'll be highly motivated to prove TLR wrong. But, I would like to know that all avenues to trade Glaus have been exhausted before making this deal because I would be reluctant to take on an extra year of contract for an injury ravaged player. I heard the Dodgers were talking to Pedro Feliz. I would see if anything is there or at the very least the availability of Andy Laroche.

parrot11 - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:04 PM EST (#178693) #

There's a good chance that this deal shakes down as Glaus plus two top 50 draft choice in 2009 for Scott Rolen.

You can't trade draft picks, even as PTBNL.

ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:13 PM EST (#178694) #
  I imagine that Glaus wanted out of Toronto, at least partly because of the turf, if not for other reasons as well. I think with his foot, there was considerable doubt about his playing time on turf.

Talking about Rolen's +800 OPS vs. righties is dreaming in technicolor. Rolen hasn't hit righties like that since 2004, when he turned 29 around opening day. He turns 33 next April 4, and has had 2 terrible seasons in the last 3. Cards fans are anxious to see his back.

We started off as the 10th best offense out of 14 and likely just went downhill. This is the kind of trade that Gord Ash used to make - trying to tread water with guys like Rolen. Glaus/Rolen is kind of like Green/Mondesi except Green and Mondesi weren't both physically handicapped.

ChicagoJaysFan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:17 PM EST (#178695) #
You can't trade draft picks, even as PTBNL.

I think the reference to the top 50 draft picks is to the compensation picks that will be received when Glaus walks.

That said, I think Glaus being a type-A free agent in a couple of years is overly optimistic (I believe he'd have to be a type-A to get the two high draft choices referred to).  Glaus this year was the lowest ranked type-A in his grouping (2nd, 3rd, and SS).  With Glaus now on the other side of 30, with a history of injuries in his career (the impact of which is already quite visible in his speed), and the potential impact of the steroids issue (I know no suspension, but the controversy/fan and media reaction will likely have an impact on his concentration), I think it's likely that his rankings will continue to drop.  I think it could be just as likely that Glaus retires at the end of his contract due to his body breaking down versus the team that holds his rights getting any kind of compensation.
HollywoodHartman - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:18 PM EST (#178696) #

"There's a good chance that this deal shakes down as Glaus plus two top 50 draft choice in 2009 for Scott Rolen.

You can't trade draft picks, even as PTBNL."

He means that he may decline his option, then decline arby. If he is a type A (which is likely) it can get the Cards a first rounder and a sandwich pick.

ayjackson - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:49 PM EST (#178697) #

I think Glaus being a type-A free agent in a couple of years is overly optimistic (I believe he'd have to be a type-A to get the two high draft choices referred to).

He'd be a free agent after this season.  Bill James projects an .851 OPS.  He'd be smart to pass up that $11.25m in 2009 for one last long-term deal, even if it means a paycut.

As for predicting Elias, I'll pass.

TamRa - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:55 PM EST (#178698) #
"Can someone explain how this helps either team?  The only difference salary wise is that Rolen is guaranteed $12m through 2010, whereas Glaus has a player option through 2010 at the same amount.  We've traded away the rights to those compensatory picks if Glaus opts out.  I'd prefer the picks, truthfully.  Rolen's two years older as well"

Someone has probably caught this already but  Glaus' player option is for 2009, which he will certainly decline if he has a healthy year, so we are trading one year for three. Also, rolen is only one year older.


Oxygen8 - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 04:56 PM EST (#178699) #
i just got a message from my rogers contact and the deal is done. they're just waiting on mlb approval for the cash on monday and the physicals.
TamRa - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:03 PM EST (#178700) #
"Rolen has shown sub-400 SLG power in two of the past three years, health obviously being the key factor. But on what basis should we be optimistic that this will turn around, that he'll come back from injury yet again? If Rolen never again posted a 100 OPS+, it wouldn't shock me."

Maybe, but the counter argument is that Rolen's injuries have not arisen from his body breaking down but because of on-field events. Rolen originally suffered the shoulder injury when he crashed hard into Hee sop Choi in 2005. the resulting surgery was either poorly done or caused some complication (I have not yet been able to find out which) but his 2007 injury is a direct result of the effects of the 2005 surgery.

It's entierly conceivable that if the most recent suregery went well and produced no complications, he could return to his 120+ OPS+ form.

My concern here is this: how well will a physical be able to determine if his shoulder issue is a thing of the past or not?

China fan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:03 PM EST (#178701) #
     Normally the physicals are a routine technicality to put the finishing touches on a trade, but in this case they might be crucial to the entire deal......   The Jays will want to be VERY sure that Rolen is 100 per cent.
    


ChicagoJaysFan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:04 PM EST (#178702) #

He'd be a free agent after this season.  Bill James projects an .851 OPS.  He'd be smart to pass up that $11.25m in 2009 for one last long-term deal, even if it means a paycut.

As for predicting Elias, I'll pass.

That makes sense about Glaus opting out this year - I forgot about that when thinking about the compensation.  That said, I still think he's going to have trouble being a type-A free agent.  He loses the 2006 season and all the HR and RBI that go with it (Elias uses only HR, RBI, AVG, OBP, and FP% when calculating rankings, as far as I know).  If he's not healthy, and even if he is, those #'s will be hard to replace.  Even with those, he's barely a type-A, so my guess is that he's a type-B next year at best.

ChicagoJaysFan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:08 PM EST (#178703) #
Not that it means much, but if anyone is curious - Rolen and Glaus are also closely rated on Elias as well.  Glaus was the last type-A 3B/2B/SS in the AL and Rolen was the 2nd highest type-B 3B/2B/SS in the NL.  Rolen also loses a 2006 that was much better than his 2007, so for him to move up will also be tough, although any of his pre-surgery years would more than make up for it (and of course, his ranking next year is irrelevant since he's not a free agent for a while).
The_Game - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:13 PM EST (#178704) #
It's a bit odd that we're trading one of our best hitters coming off a year of offensive struggles, but it's become clear that Ricciardi believes the best way to win in this division is through pitching and defense. The Jays already were the best defensive team in baseball, and getting rid of Glaus and adding Rolen will only help them there. With Halladay, Burnett, McGowan, and Marcum, and a great bullpen, the pitching should be fine as well.

Offensively, we lose a big part of our offense, and the #5 guy in our order, but I'd really grown tired of Troy hobbling around at all times and being unable to walk or run at all. With his plantar fascilitis and constant pain in his legs, I don't feel too bad to let him go. Rolen is also a huge injury risk with his shoulder problems, but hopefully the surgery will help that. I'm fairly sure he'll rebound to solid levels, and the good thing about him is he doesn't have severe splits like Glaus does, he can actually hit righties.

It appears to be a very linear move, but one that I don't really have a problem with assuming it's only a straight 1 for 1 deal as it seems. It will be interesting to see how this ones pans out over the next year or so, it could really go both ways.
TamRa - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:15 PM EST (#178705) #
I don't put any stock at all in ZIPS

As for why JP does this deal, two words:

cost certainty

(not to mention position stability)

The Good, heck DECENT 3B available after 2008:

Galus, Blalock - both of which will get in the area of 14 or 15 million per if they are healthy this year

After 2009? Beltre and Cabrera...15 or so and 20 or more.

If the Jays get Rolen and enough case to make him a 9 or 10 mil guy for each of the next three years (and hopefully Ahrens is along by then) then that's one less position the Jays have to worry about.

that's IF you assume his health is predictable. in five of the last 7 season he has played essentially full time and in the two where he didn't his injury was an on field mishap (think Halladay's broken leg) not a man "falling apart"

The closer I look at Rolen, the more attractive he gets.


HollywoodHartman - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:21 PM EST (#178706) #
But the on field injury can linger. It isn't to say he's injury prone or did anything wrong. But one injury can last a long long time.
John Northey - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 05:25 PM EST (#178707) #
Now this is more fun. After a winter where we were looking as guys off a scrap heap a trade of two guys in a challenge trade ups the fun level.

Scott Rolan 2007
112 games played, 265/331/398
2008 projection via Bill James
127 games played, 283/367/475
2008 via ZiPS
106 games played, 255/331/397
2008 via Marcels
480 plate appearances, 270/340/440

Troy Glaus 2007
115 games played, 262/366/473
2008 projection via Bill James
145 games played, 251/360/490
2008 via ZiPS
134 games played, 247/350/469
2008 via Marcels
491 plate appearances, 260/360/480

So, similar playing time in 2007, but Glaus was much better overall. Projection from both sources state Glaus should be healthier but ZiPS thinks Rolen is done while James thinks the two bats are extremely similar and Marcel sees Rolan as weaker but not horrid.

What about defense? RZR is 07/06/05/04
Rolan: RZR=742/767/794/758 762 overall with an OOZ play every 24 innings last year, 16 1/2 innings since 04.
Glaus: RZR=706/687/713/765 704 overall with an OOZ play every 19 innings last year, 21.8 innings since 04.

So Rolan is clearly better defensively. If we just use last season (when Rolan was at his worst) and base it on opportunities and playing time of 1000 innings (or about 112 games) we get 220 balls in zone with Rolan expected to make 163 plays and Glaus 155 plays, with OOZ plays being Rolan: 42 Glaus: 53. Net plays: Rolan: 205 Glaus: 208 or, for all intents and purposes, no real difference. If, however, we use total for the past 4 years we get Rolan: 226 Glaus: 201 or 25 more plays for Rolan vs Glaus which is getting fairly serious (over 500 PA that equals 100 points of OPS if you assume each play saved saves a single, but many save doubles so it is even bigger).

In the end this deal completely depends on assumptions of health. If Rolan and Glaus are healthy then the Jays win. If one or the other is hurt, or hurt enough to have to shift positions, then the deal blows up on the team that gets the hurt player. The Jays take on an extra year of risk plus a player who is a year older. The Jays should insist on a prospect or salary pickup. However, straight one for one I would do the deal if my medical team gives it the OK.
timpinder - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 06:06 PM EST (#178708) #

If this trade happens I'll be quite happy.  Rolen is an upgrade in defense, he has been a better hitter than Glaus over their careers (.879 OPS versus .858 OPS), and he is signed through 2010.  I was concerned about the Jays' situation at 3B in 2009 and 2010 without Glaus, since there is absolutely nobody in the system near ready to take over and the free-agent third basemen scheduled to become available are less than inspiring.  Bill James projects they'll have very similar years at the plate in 2008 (.842 OPS versus .851 OPS).  They're both health concerns, but the deal won't happen if the Jays are convinced that Rolen's shoulder is still a problem.

I think the Jays will be a better team if the deal happens and they'll have 3B covered until, hopefully, Ahrens is ready.  I hope it happens, but both players would need to pass physicals and wave their no-trade clauses so I'm not getting my hopes up.

CaramonLS - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 06:35 PM EST (#178709) #
I wonder if any other pieces are going to be exchanged, salary picked up, or if this is a straight 1:1 deal?
Oxygen8 - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 08:21 PM EST (#178711) #
the no trades have been waved. this deal is done. just a few formalities to be done on the next business day.

order your powder blue No. 27 jersey today.

this is a great move. Glaus and Thomas redundant. they are the same type of hitter and Rolen will give Gibby some needed flexibility in the batting order. his production against righties is very much needed.

by the way i think the key to this year will be finding the best batting order that use the strengths of all the jays hitters. i think all loyalty should be put aside and try some new combinations should be used.

i really belive that Lyle Overbay should be hitting 4th against righties.

in 78 games & 330 PA's in the clean up spot he has

.336 .415 .524
Amarsh - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 08:24 PM EST (#178712) #
As has been mentioned, Rolen's splits are a lot more balanced than Glaus's.
As we all know, this team destroys left-handed pitching already, so Rolen's improved numbers against righties is a big plus.

Beyond that, their home/away splits show that their offensive potential might be closer together than their overall stats from last year would imply.
In Glaus's case, he hit very well at the RC - .883 OPS versus just .808 on the road.
Rolen, in contrast, hit much better away from home, with a .776 OPS, which was a huge jump from his .685 at home.

If this trade goes through, and all else being equal, there's a good chance that park factor improves Rolen's production next year while hindering Glaus's, thus making their offensive numbers closer together.


Overall though, I agree with most that the biggest factor is health.  Either GM could have this blow up in their face.
Jabes - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 08:51 PM EST (#178713) #
Does this mean we can trade Aaron Hill and Lyle Overbay for Raphial Belliard and Albert Pujols?
Cristian - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 09:10 PM EST (#178714) #
I can't believe some people on this board are defending this deal!  Sub .400 slugging Rolen is not an improvement on Glaus.  I think this has been such a quiet offseason that many Jays fans are cheering trades in general rather than the merits of this trade.  Halladay for Livan Hernandez? Sure, why not?  It it will give us something to discuss before spring training.
Ryan Day - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 09:18 PM EST (#178715) #
Sub .400 slugging Rolen is not an improvement on Glaus.

Well, no, obviously. But a post-surgery Rolen who gets his power stroke back and slugs around .475 probably would be.
melondough - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 09:21 PM EST (#178716) #

I can't believe some people on this board are defending this deal!  Sub .400 slugging Rolen is not an improvement on Glaus. 

I didn't realize the merit of any deal hinges only on comparative slugging percentages.  Rolen helps our defence which in turn helps our pitching and isn't that how you win championships?

A deal does not necessarily have to be "won".  This may well end up being a great trade for both teams.

Sorry but your analysis is ludicrous.

parrot11 - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 09:25 PM EST (#178717) #

As for why JP does this deal, two words:
cost certainty
(not to mention position stability)

I really don't see how you can have position certainty with a guy whose health record is as checkered as Rolen's is. And if you don't have positional certainty, I don't see how that gives you cost certainty. You could dump money into a big hole in the backyard and say that's cost certainty too. It doesn't mean that you can reasonably expect to have a good return on your investment. You could end up needing a 3B, if Rolen's shoulder doesn't recover, but paying alot of money anyway. Some cost certainty that is. I generally feel that the shorter the length of the contract on injury prone players the more favourable that contract becomes.

parrot11 - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 09:30 PM EST (#178718) #

I didn't realize the merit of any deal hinges only on comparative slugging percentages.  Rolen helps our defence which in turn helps our pitching and isn't that how you win championships?

Actually making the playoffs is a very good 1st step to winning championships. But, what was being pointed out is that if Rolen slug below .400, that's is well below what the average 3B hits. No amount of defense will overcome that. So the tradeoff may not be beneficial, especially considering Rolen's shoulder is a huge question mark.

Ryan Day - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 09:48 PM EST (#178719) #
It appears that Rolen's recent surgery was primarily to clean up some stuff left over from the last surgery, as opposed to a new, separate injury. That potentially bodes well, as it's not likely to require as much recovery time. And Rolen bounced back from his last surgery pretty well, hitting 296/369/518 in 2006.
SK in NJ - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 10:43 PM EST (#178720) #
Glaus has exercised his player option according to ESPN. It was the only way the Cardinals would make the trade.

According to a source with knowledge of the trade, the Cardinals only signed off on the deal after Glaus agreed to exercise his $11.25 million option for 2009. St. Louis management didn't want to give up three years of Rolen for only one year of Glaus, so Glaus had to commit to the option year as part of the deal.

Both players were also required to waive no-trade clauses.

A source told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark that Toronto will be responsible for the three years and $33 million left on Rolen's contract, while St. Louis will assume the $24.5 million owed Glaus through 2009. Since no cash is involved in the trade, it appears that no approval from commissioner Bud Selig's office is required.


TamRa - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 10:51 PM EST (#178721) #
"I really don't see how you can have position certainty with a guy whose health record is as checkered as Rolen's is"

You might be under some misaprehension about Rolen. Here's his GP numbers for the last seven years.

2001: 151
2002: 155
2003: 154
2004: 142
2005: 56 (collided with He Seop Choi and injured shoulder requiring surgery
2006: 142
2007: 112 (shoulder issues arising from previous surgery.

That, my friend, is NOT a "checkered past" in regards to health. You also have to keep in mind that both Glaus and Blalock have had recent injury difficulties as well so it's not like there's a healthy guy out there who's in Rolen's weight class who presents an obvious alternative.



John Northey - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 10:53 PM EST (#178722) #
Health is by far the #1 issue in this trade.

A big issue for the Jays to push it is Glaus having a player option after this season, so if he sucks we're stuck and if he does well he could be gone or a lot more expensive.

The big issue for the Cards is Rolen and LaRussa hate each other and that rarely works well (outside of Billy Martin vs everyone).

Rolen's big asset is potential. He has had a 119+ OPS+ in all but 3 of his ML seasons, peaking at 157 in '04, lifetime at 126. BUT 2 of the last 3 seasons he had an OPS+ in the 80's (his first callup he was at 90 over 146 PA's).

Glaus has stability. Since 2000 he has been at 113 or higher for OPS+ every season with a 150 in 2000 and 140 in '04. However, since 2002 that was his only season over 126 (Rolen's lifetime OPS+ - Rolen has been higher than or equal to 126 in 4 out of the last 6 seasons).

Funny thing is this is the type of risk you'd expect the Yanks or Red Sox to pull. Go for the guy with the highest potential but also the highest risk of collapse and most guaranteed dollars. Will it work? Hard to say without medical reports, scout reports, and insider knowledge on how Glaus was feeling about his foot long term.

FYI: while the Jays have the Card's left side the Cards now have an ex-Jay left side with Glaus and Cesar Izturis. I think I prefer the Jays situation.
China fan - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 11:25 PM EST (#178723) #
   It's curious that Glaus agreed to exercise his player option for 2009 in order to join the Cards.   Was he really so desperate to leave the Jays that he was willing to give up the chance to make free-agent money in 2009?  If so, why was he so eager to leave?  Does he hate the SkyDome turf so mcuh?   Or, alternatively, does he want the guaranteed money in 2009 because he expects to have a mediocre year in 2008?  If it's the latter explanation, then this trade looks good for the Jays.....
Cristian - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 11:28 PM EST (#178724) #
I didn't realize the merit of any deal hinges only on comparative slugging percentages.

Did I write that the merit of the deal hinges only on each players slugging percentage?  Way to tackle that straw man into the ground.  Now I remember why I post here once a year instead of once a day like I did four years ago.

By the way, I find your "pitching and defence wins championships" claptrap equally ludicrous.
ANationalAcrobat - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 11:33 PM EST (#178725) #
Or, alternatively, does he want the guaranteed money in 2009 because he expects to have a mediocre year in 2008? If it's the latter explanation, then this trade looks good for the Jays.....

That money was his at the end of the year if he wanted it regardless of how well he played in '08. Even after a mediocre year or a terrible one in which he didnt play, Glaus could have excersised the '09 option. It's absolutely shocking that he did it now simply so that the trade would go through - I really have to believe there will be more to this story.

Mylegacy - Saturday, January 12 2008 @ 11:59 PM EST (#178726) #

RyanDay's link (above) to the story about Rolen's surgery being minor - and him looking to be OK for spring has me excited!

Glaus career stats: vs LHP 286/407/578 OPS 985   vs RHP 244/341/474 OPS 816

Rolen career stats: vs LHP 283/406/516 OPS 922   vs RHP 284/361/504 OPS 865

Very good production against lefties and much improved over Glaus against righties - which is WHAT WE NEED - AND gold glove defense.

JP - WELL DONE!

 

melondough - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 12:03 AM EST (#178727) #

Did I write that the merit of the deal hinges only on each players slugging percentage?

No, but you might as well have - that's how it came accross to me.  You ignored to mention any positves that Rolen should bring - ie. better defense, hits righties better (which we need), can run, etc.

Now I remember why I post here once a year instead of once a day like I did four years ago.

Sorry I didn't realize that I could not voice my opinion. 

By the way, I find your "pitching and defence wins championships" claptrap equally ludicrous.

Of the years, many managers have "sang this tune", so I am not sure how it could be taken as ludicrous.  I believe it is absolutely true and I would bet that based on all his moves this year (as well as his failed attempts) JP thinks so to. 

R Billie - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 03:13 AM EST (#178728) #

There's certainly a risk to this deal but it seemed like the writing was on the wall for Glaus being moved.  There were rumblings during the season and the Jays have been very interested in Adam LaRoche from the Dodgers.  I'm guessing Rolen is going to be worth less to the Dodgers than Glaus but who knows?

Is it a good move?  Well...the Jays definately needed more production from 3B as in health.  Also Glaus much like the rest of the lineup, even when he was healthy did not hit RHP particularly well.  This trade doesn't address the health issue but if the shoulder surgery is a minor cleanup maybe this puts both players at at least an even risk of playing time.

I like this trade on the defensive side though really Glaus wasn't exactly a huge liability out there.  He was decent.  Rolen is quite good and as long as he plays he'll be a marked improvement.  A late inning infield of Rolen, McDonald, Hill, and Overbay isn't chopped liver.

For this deal to really work though, Rolen has to hit.  He doesn't have to be the all-star he used to be, he just has to be above average, particular against righties which Glaus wasn't.  Offensively, this is a pretty big gamble especially balanced against the THREE years at about the same salary Glaus was earning.  As opposed to one guaranteed year plus a player option for Glaus.  There is considerable downside on this deal for the Jays financially.

But if we operate under the assumption that the financial downside is going to be absorbed and glossed over (as it was in previous 3B investments like Hinske and Koskie) then I suppose from a pure baseball standpoint, this gives the Jays a chance at improvement.  Particularly in emphasizing an existing strength in pitching and fielding and at least pushing the lineup towards some semblance of left/right balance.

Glevin - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 03:31 AM EST (#178729) #
I am surprised by how many people seem to love this deal. I think it's a completely pointless sideways move. Rolen is incredibly injury-prone (and if you follow baseball, you know that he is often banged up ala Glaus) and two of the last three years he has been bad. At age 33, could he rebound? Of course. is he likely to? Maybe he'll have one more good year, but the Jays are once again giving a lot of money and years to a guy who doesn't deserve the contract. So, he hits righties a little better than Glaus? He still only had a .770 OPS against them. and in 2005, he had a .690 OPS against righties. Glaus AVERAGES 20 more HRs a year over the last 3 years than Rolen.  I just don't understand this move for the Jays. (For the Cardinals, they don't want Rolen anymore and they get good value for him and a lower contract.)
rtcaino - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:08 AM EST (#178730) #
I am so excited to see JP pick up a guy with strong side splits. I was beginning to question whether JP recognized that batters performed different depending on the handedness of the pitcher faced.

As for Rolen, it does seem odd for a RH hitter to hit better against RHP's, but hopefully he can maintain that!
GrrBear - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:01 AM EST (#178731) #

Maybe JP is hoping that, as Boston struck gold with Mike Lowell, the Jays can do the same with Rolen.  I do agree with the perception that the Jays are tilting heavily towards pitching and defense.  In recent years, Toronto has tried to out-slug Boston and New York with limited results, so why not try going in the other direction for a while?  Now if they could just get a few players with some speed.

I'm still convinced that the Jays could make a play for Santana, and having the best defense in the American League would be a big selling point.

grjas - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:28 AM EST (#178732) #
So the other interesting question is whether Rolen and Eckstein are better than McDonald and Glaus. I would argue yes:
  • On defence, improved range and arm at 3rd, I suspect will largely offset the decline at SS
  • When both are healthy, Rolen and Glaus are relatively close offensively, while Eckstein of course is significantly stronger than McDonald
  • Eckstein brings additional speed to the line up; Rolen provides more offence against righties
  • Presuming Gibbons manages the field properly, McDonald brings his defensive acumen to tight games in late innings
(Of course I could also mention the intangibles of hard nosed playing and much-needed spark, but that would cause another hissy fit, so I will ignore them.)

Not a major improvement for the team, but at least some innovative thinking and risk taking by JP. Now, if he could only get a LF with consistent pop or speed...

Hal - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 08:55 AM EST (#178733) #

I suppose we need a new "who has the best 3B in the AL East poll.

This time, leave out Rodriguez, so we can see who is the best 'o' the rest.

 

R Billie - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 12:48 PM EST (#178749) #

I'm not a big fan of the trade, I just see why there might be some appeal to the Jays to make the trade.  I think in this case the health and financial risk fairly outweigh that appeal for me.  I can't see myself making this trade.

I guess the question comes down to, if this was Glaus' walk year, would you have signed Rolen to three years, $11M per as a free agent?  That's really what the Jays have effectively done here assuming there are no other players or cash involved. 

I know the question isn't as easy as that because this WASN'T Glaus' walk year.  And whatever people say about the shoulder surgery situation, Glaus just seems like a better bet for short term production and health than Rolen.  Now you have both Wells and Rolen with significant shoulder concerns which may again play a factor in their production.

CeeBee - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 01:57 PM EST (#178753) #
I like the gamble for several reasons. Improved defense is one and no legit third base prospects above the low minors. What it will come down to is health for both Glaus and Rolen and this may very well be a win-win trade.
TamRa - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:04 PM EST (#178761) #
" Rolen is incredibly injury-prone (and if you follow baseball, you know that he is often banged up ala Glaus)"

I follow baseball, and can consult a refereance source, and i know that - short of major injuries - both players, in spite of occasional "day-to-day" nicks play 140+ games a year regularly and are always among the top 6-8 3B in the game in any given season.

"two of the last three years he has been bad. At age 33, could he rebound? Of course. is he likely to?"

Two of the last three years he has suffered from the repercussions of one on-field collision. This is quite different from a player who is simply "getting old". In between, he turned in a year consistant with his career norms in non injured years, and won a Gold Glove. And in five of the past seven seasons, he has been the model of consistant healthy production.

Glaus has a similarly, undeserved, reputation for fragility.

"Glaus AVERAGES 20 more HRs a year over the last 3 years than Rolen."

Why do you presist in ignoring all Rolen's healthy years and focus on his production when injured? Do you similarly assume that the production we saw from Johnson, Wells, and Overbay last season is what we have to look forward to from those three from now on?
 
"I just don't understand this move for the Jays."

Question: What do you think was going to happen with the 3B position in Toronto once Glaus walked away after next season?

Give some serious thought to how you would answer that question and it SHOULD give you some good insight into why we would make this deal.

TamRa - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 04:16 PM EST (#178762) #
"I guess the question comes down to, if this was Glaus' walk year, would you have signed Rolen to three years, $11M per as a free agent?  That's really what the Jays have effectively done here assuming there are no other players or cash involved. "


Absolutely. All one has to do is look at the available free agent 3B after 2007, and 2008, and 2009 to know that one of the best in the game, signed for 11 per, is a sweet deal if he's healthy.


Dave501 - Sunday, January 13 2008 @ 05:16 PM EST (#178771) #

What do you think was going to happen at 3B when Glaus walked after next season?

that about sums up the reason behind this deal.  The jays were facing a huge void at the position, with not many free agent prospects likely available, and the most optomistic of minor league prospect projections still a few years away.

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