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Okay, y'all seem to like these catch-all threads, so here's another. First, for an official Batter's Box No-Prize, identify the source of the title of this thread. For extra credit, provide the next several lines ...

Now, again, erm, what's up? Here'are some starting points ...

Got answers? Got other questions? Provide information backed with a link within!

Update 12:30pm:  Alex Rios signed - 1 year, $4.8 million.



My answers are simple:

  • It's not going to.
  • Yes, in the current market.
  • Probably not, but these are the Pirates.
  • Hasn't this been going on since, like, 1977?
  • Yawwwnnnnn.

Anyone else?

Tuesday ... Afternoon | 56 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
owen - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 12:08 PM EST (#179709) #
owen - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 12:11 PM EST (#179710) #
Of course, what I meant to say was that the deal is for 4.835M.

I also meant to say "as reported in a different thread on this site last night" ....

ayjackson - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 12:39 PM EST (#179711) #
Moody Blues.  I'm just beginning to see, got to find out why, these gentle voices I hear, explain it all with a sigh.  At least that's what my distant memory says.  Google might say differently.
AWeb - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 12:44 PM EST (#179712) #

Note: The Juan Gonzalez link goes to the Granderson story. It's like the internet itself was in such disbelief over Juan Gonzales making yet another come back, in the NL yet, that it refused to go along with it. Is it wrong that I found his last attempt, where he injured himself, if I recall correctly, running on the first ground ball of the year, so funny? Because even if it is, I don't apologize.

Granderson seems like  a steal at that rate, he seems to be an above average fielder at a premium position, plus an above average hitter. 5 years is a lot, and the amount reflects his arbitration years and one or two (?) free agency years (he'd be getting a lot more as a free agent, obviously), but it does cover his "traditional" peak seasons, and they will be well positioned to cut bait on him if his skills are declining rapidly in his early 30's. One last note: the 20-20-20-20 (HR, 3B, 2B, SB) thing Granderson and Rollins managed is kind of cool, but wasn't it extremely weird that two guys managed it last year, doubling the historic total? It's a totally made-up milestone, but I found that very strange, considering 20 trtiples is a fairly rare event on its own. Reyes and possibly Crawford have also come extremely close in recent years.

The Freddy Sanchez deal is a typically bad Pittsburgh signing, at first glance. Sanchez is in his 30's now, and second basemen don't typically age well. But if he maintains his current level of play, it's a good deal. Maybe they're trying to keep Bay happy? I'm not saying it won't work out, but the mere fact the Pirates are involved seems to curse most multi-year deals.

3RunHomer - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 12:44 PM EST (#179713) #

Maybe Bedard will sign with the Jays as a free agent in days of future ...

I always did love that album. A video of the Moody Blues performing Tuesday Afternoon in a smoky 1970s nightclub.

ayjackson - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 12:47 PM EST (#179714) #
Not surprisingly I mixed lyrics from different verses.
Chuck - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 01:49 PM EST (#179715) #
It's like the internet itself was in such disbelief over Juan Gonzales making yet another come back

It's hard to believe that Gonzalez would still be cashing paycheques from that long term deal he turned down from the Detroit Tigers oh so long ago (was it 7/130 or something like that?). If I have the details wrong, he'd only just now be coming off their books.
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 02:05 PM EST (#179716) #
The Juando-to-St.-Loo link has been fixed. Sorry 'bout that ... cut and paste error.
HollywoodHartman - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 02:55 PM EST (#179717) #
So now that Rios' salary is settled, what does the payroll look like? I heard we may crack $100 mil, is that true?
Jevant - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 03:23 PM EST (#179718) #
To me, Granderson is a steal at that price.  I'm actually shocked he signed that. 
Chuck - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 03:36 PM EST (#179719) #

Granderson seems like  a steal at that rate, he seems to be an above average fielder at a premium position, plus an above average hitter.

I don't necessarily dispute any of what you've said, but I am surprised to discover that 2008 will be Granderson's age-27 season. He has the very opposite of "old player" skills so figures to be less likely to implode in his early 30's.

After his huge leap in OPS+ from 98 to 136, it will be interesting to see how much of that gain he retains. He had a tremendously underrated 2007 (in the same ballpark, not literally, as Vernon Wells' two best seasons).

Geoff - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:03 PM EST (#179720) #
If I have the details wrong, he'd only just now be coming off their books.

If you didn't have the details wrong, when would he be coming off the books?
Mike Green - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:12 PM EST (#179721) #
Smart move by the Tigers to sign Granderson.  Before last season, I hoped that the Jays would try to sign Hill and Rios to similar deals. 

I am unsurprised that Rios is not signing up long-term now.

ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:24 PM EST (#179722) #
I am unsurprised that Rios is not signing up long-term now.


I thought Rios was planning on signing long-term - I haven't heard much against this thought beforehand.  Has anything new come out?

All of Blair's columns (and he's usually really good at getting the inside scoop) have indicated that the plan is there for a long-term.  The latest entry seems to indicate that getting him on a one-year deal may facilitate things.  Everything that I've read from the beginning, attributed to both sides of the deal, was that they would sign a one-year deal to get it over with and then work on a longer-term pact.  In that article linked to above, do a search on Kinzer and there are a few other comments that indicate that a long-term deal is likely, but that they aren't feel any time pressure (nor should they, really).
Original Ryan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:28 PM EST (#179724) #
If you didn't have the details wrong, when would he be coming off the books?

According to the Detroit Free Press, it was an eight-year extension.  Gonzalez was a Tiger in 2000, so the first year of the extension would've been 2001.  2008 would be the final year of the deal.  I know Gonzalez didn't care for playing in Detroit (especially before they moved the fences in), but I would have to think he's regretting the decision to turn down that contract.

Anyone remember any similar situations in baseball where a player passed up a big contract and eventually found himself in the bargain bin?  Ed Sprague turned down a nice two-year extension by the Pirates in 1999, but wound up with a minor league contract from the Padres the following spring.
Geoff - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:31 PM EST (#179726) #
Not mentioned here yet is the $13 million option for 2013 with a $2 million buyout.

By 2013, some top rookies and many second-year players will already be commanding $13 million per season.

Also, Granderson gets $1 million this year, $3.5 million in 2009, $5.5 million in 2010, $8.25 million in 2011 and $10 million in 2012. 

Only $1 million this year! Hardly enough to buy lunches for all his old friends to honor this big new contract, after fees and taxes are deducted.

I hope the Tigers owner will send Curtis and his family free pizza. Or give him a really sweet endorsement deal.
Mike Green - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:32 PM EST (#179727) #
The club said that they would try to sign Rios long-term this off-season.  There were talks, but it didn't happen.  The clock ticks, and the price goes up.
ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:49 PM EST (#179729) #
The club said that they would try to sign Rios long-term this off-season.  There were talks, but it didn't happen.  The clock ticks, and the price goes up.

Did you read what I linked?  The timeline was always the end of spring training.

Also, why does the price go up? 
ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:52 PM EST (#179730) #
Since you ignored the link last time, I'll quote part of the relevant piece this time:

Meanwhile, don't be surprised by the fact that the Blue Jays and Alex Rios exchanged figures Friday. The sides won't get to an arbitration hearing and, further, it's likely that the two-time All-Star right-fielder will have a new multi-year contract in place before the start of the season. Speaking on a conference call to discuss the signing of Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Marco Scutaro, Brian Tallet and Gustavo Chacin, Ricciardi said: "We have all spring training to get something done with Rios."

Alex Obal - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 05:56 PM EST (#179731) #
Mike, what would you consider a reasonable offer for Rios?

If Zeus descended from Mount Olympus to mediate and suggested 45 million over 5 years - say 4.8 + 5.5 + 6.2 for his arb years and 13.5 + 15 for his first two free agent years - which side would say no?
Pistol - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 06:18 PM EST (#179732) #
Tango has this for salary values:
40% 3 to 4 years less a day
60% 4 to 5 years less a day
80% 5 to 6 years less a day
So if $4.8 million is this year's amount for Rios you could ballpark $7.2 million for next year, $9.6 million for the following year and $12 million for a free agent year.

Over 5 years, taking out 2 years of free agency, would cost in the neighborhood of $45 million using that. set up.

I'd be good with 5 years and anything under $50 million.  And probably higher than that as well.



ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 06:29 PM EST (#179733) #
Tango has this for salary values:
40% 3 to 4 years less a day
60% 4 to 5 years less a day
80% 5 to 6 years less a day
So if $4.8 million is this year's amount for Rios you could ballpark $7.2 million for next year, $9.6 million for the following year and $12 million for a free agent year.

Over 5 years, taking out 2 years of free agency, would cost in the neighborhood of $45 million using that. set up.

I'd be good with 5 years and anything under $50 million.  And probably higher than that as well.


Great link, I hadn't seen that before.  I would think you'd also have to factor in salary inflation as well - usually about 10% per year for baseball.

That'd put it at $4.8, $7.9, $11.6, $16, and $17.6.  Or just about $58 mil over the 5 years.  I don't know if there are different projections for salary growth (10% is unreal, especially when long-term GDP growth for the US is usually 3% and trending downwards with the aging population).
daryn - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 06:31 PM EST (#179734) #
So now that Rios' salary is settled, what does the payroll look like? I heard we may crack $100 mil, is that true?

Presuming 300-500K for Marcum, McGowan, Janssen(?), Lind, Hill and Accardo,
I have the Jays at $88 Mil against the cap and $96.5 with Bonuses

so it could get close....
Mike Green - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 06:32 PM EST (#179735) #
They will probably gonna have to go to $55 million or more. Torii Hunter signed for $18 mil per year, and Rios, at 29, will likely be able to play a similar quality of defence in centerfield and provide a better bat than the 32 year old Hunter.  He has more value as a centerfielder than as a rightfielder...

Rios'  free agency years are likely to coincide with down years for the club.  He really is better off to test the market, to maximize his "non-salary opportunities".   The Jays had, in my view, a chance last year to get a better deal by assuming more of the risk as the Tigers did with Granderson.
ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 06:38 PM EST (#179736) #
The Jays had, in my view, a chance last year to get a better deal by assuming more of the risk as the Tigers did with Granderson.

I'm not sure I follow you.  Rios' year this last year didn't really change his value that much (it may have lessened it as he didn't get a boost in his age-26 year, thus any new contract isn't really going to factor in much growth, whereas a contract last year likely would have).

But regardless, risk and everything will get priced into the contracts, so that the present value really shouldn't be all that different (unless Rios' agent is incompetent).  In the case of an injured player, you'd likely save some money with a long-term contract, but from my understanding, young position players are relatively easy to project, and thus the risk is similarly limited.

I'm not sure what I'm missing - can you help me?
Doom Service - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 06:39 PM EST (#179737) #

I recall Jody Reed doing himself a grave disservice one off-season in the early 90s. I think he turned down a fairly lucrative deal from his team at the time (Dodgers?) and ended up settling for something like one-tenth the offer. Memories fail, of course.

Doom Service - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 06:58 PM EST (#179738) #

I felt guilty about taking the lazy way out, so I looked it up.  Reed turned down a three-year $8 million contract with the Dodgers, then signed with Milwaukee for $300,000. Baseball Reference says he earned more that year -- probably through performance incentives.

Alex Obal - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 07:07 PM EST (#179740) #
Wow, totally forgot about the Torii contract. In light of that I almost think Granderson's deal helps the Jays out with respect to Rios. Apparently, a free-agent year of Granderson, who just out-OPS'd Rios' career high by 48 points and is a month younger than Rios, four years from now, is worth $10 million. That might depress Rios' demands a little.

Then again, Granderson's in a much more risk-averse position, since he's made the minimum the last two years. The guaranteed money should be worth more to him, so he's probably right to accept a cheap buyout of a FA year, and if he were in Rios' position maybe he'd get something closer to 13 or 18 for it. Who knows.

I think $55 sounds reasonable, and the Jays can probably defend paying so much by saying outwardly that the last few million dollars were necessary to offset the non-salary opportunities of testing the market. 
Chuck - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 07:12 PM EST (#179741) #
Rios' year this last year didn't really change his value that much (it may have lessened it as he didn't get a boost in his age-26 year, thus any new contract isn't really going to factor in much growth, whereas a contract last year likely would have).

I disagree. There were many Rios skeptics going into the 2007 season, unsure what to make of his huge offensive jump from 2005 to 2006 (OPS+ from 84 to 120). Was it real? Was it a fluke?  In 2007 he showed that his 2006 did, in fact, represent a legitimate leap forward. The 2007 "evidence" of his newly established offensive level of performance will make him a less risky, more expensive proposition moving forward.
92-93 - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 07:26 PM EST (#179743) #
Stay year to year to Rios, and reassess in 2010. If Lind and Snider's bats demand spots in the OF next to your "franchise" CF, the Jays are probably best off trading Rios or waiting for the 2 compensatory picks.
natan79 - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 07:43 PM EST (#179744) #
What about keeping Rios and having Lind play first base in a few years?
Pistol - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 08:10 PM EST (#179745) #
I don't think Hunter's contract is a comparable for Rios right now.  A player signing a contract in advance is going to take somewhat of a discount.

Morneau's free agency years were for $14 million going through 2013.  Granderson got $10 million and signed a year earlier.  I can't see Rios in excess of $14 million for free agency years right now which would have him no higher than $50 million over 5 years in my eyes.  (You could pay him a lot more and I still think he'd be worth it, I just don't see him warranting that now).

A 5 year deal for Rios is pretty ideal too - it'd take him to about 32.
ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 08:29 PM EST (#179746) #

I disagree. There were many Rios skeptics going into the 2007 season, unsure what to make of his huge offensive jump from 2005 to 2006 (OPS+ from 84 to 120). Was it real? Was it a fluke?  In 2007 he showed that his 2006 did, in fact, represent a legitimate leap forward. The 2007 "evidence" of his newly established offensive level of performance will make him a less risky, more expensive proposition moving forward.


What you're saying actually adds some weight to the decision to not sign Rios last year - you're saying there was a highly valuable real option embedded in the decision to not sign Rios.  As such, signing him last year would have forfeited the value of this option making such a contract offer much more expensive than the nominal value.

Also, this is the second time in this discussion that someone has used a statement similar to "less risky, more expensive" (last time it was "better deal by assuming more of the risk").  I still don't understand what you're talking about.  Risk is not independent of the cost of a decision - the riskiness has to be factored in.

Let's put some #'s to it so that I can see what you're saying.  Let's ignore the time value of money for simplicity - you have an option between two investments, one that pays off $5 million 100% of the time (option A) and another that pays $5 million 80% of the time (option B).  Ignoring time value of money, you'd likely pay $5 million for option A and close to $4 million for option B.  Are you claiming that option A is more expensive because the nominal values are higher?    If so, that's not the correct way to look at these - at least when considering corporate finance, which is how the Jays should be evaluating such a deal.

If you're paying $5 million for option A and $4 million for option B, they're essentially the same cost, one is not more expensive than the other.  If you start to add in any aspect of risk aversion, the option B investment at $4 million would be the costlier investment (it'd have a lower net present value).

If you're talking in nominal terms, then, yeah, they might have been able to sign Rios to a contract with fewer nominal $$ last year - but that's irrelevant.
ChicagoJaysFan - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 08:32 PM EST (#179747) #
I don't think Hunter's contract is a comparable for Rios right now.  A player signing a contract in advance is going to take somewhat of a discount.

That's a good point.  As such, the 10% growth rate that I used earlier would probably be the upper bound for what it would cost to sign Rios and you'd likely get him for cheaper.
CaramonLS - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 08:34 PM EST (#179748) #

There is no point in paying someone a CF premium to not play CF for this jays team.   Not to mention another right handed bat.

I'll be quite happy when Rios is not a Jay anymore.  This is not to say that Rios isn't a solid player... because he is, just a square peg trying to fit in a round hole on this team.  Hopefully the Left handed power of Adam Lind/Travis Snider are ready to rock, so this discussion will be over.

greenfrog - Tuesday, February 05 2008 @ 10:11 PM EST (#179749) #
Cannot believe Wells is going to be making $23M in 2011. And $63M for the three years after that. That is a lot of money.
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 10:28 AM EST (#179761) #
Isn't it a bit early for the off-season weight-loss and weight-training stories?

Matt Kemp said Tuesday that he's been working out all offseason and has lost about 20 pounds. Kemp now weighs 220 after ending last season at 240, and the increased quickness that comes with weight loss could be good news for his stolen base totals. "I had to shed some pounds so I could move a little bit more," Kemp said. "I feel quicker, I feel way stronger."

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/home_MLB.aspx


ChicagoJaysFan - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 10:54 AM EST (#179764) #
Griffin has a surprisingly upbeat article on the Rios signing and Spring Training coming up.  I've noticed that he's been a lot less negative this offseason than usual, I'm not sure what has caused this change or if I'm the only one that's noticed it.
Noah - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 11:07 AM EST (#179765) #
not sure if anyone's posted this already but I noticed in Wilner's latest column that Ricciardi mentioned at the state of the team event that he expect to have David Purcey with the big club for at least part of the season.

He seems to have spoken very highly of the job Purcey did in the Arizona Fall League.  I wonder what the odds are that Purcey comes into Spring Training and steals the 5th starter spot away from Chacin and Litsch....

should be interesting...

Mike Green - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 11:27 AM EST (#179766) #
That is good news.  I would love to see Purcey in the big league bullpen in a low leverage role to start the season, with an eye to either advancing him up the leverage chain or into the rotation as the 7th starter (if needed) later in the season.  If Ryan is not ready to go, I am perfectly OK with a bullpen of Accardo, Downs, Frasor, Tallet, League/Wolfe/Litsch and Purcey.  The key is to move Janssen to the rotation, as the difference between him and Litsch/Chacin is very, very significant. 
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 11:53 AM EST (#179767) #
I'm not so sure I agree the difference between Litsch and Janssen is that great, if you look at Litsch's '07 and Janssen's starting role in '06.

Litsch  111.0 IP  9.41 H/9  4.05 K/9  2.29 BB/9  1.14 HR/9  .270 AVG  48.1 GB%
Janssen 94.0 IP  9.86 H/9  4.21 K/9  2.01 BB/9  1.15 HR/9  .280 AVG  52.8 GB%

Those are pretty similar lines. I would rather keep Janssen in the pen where he has thrived.

smcs - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 12:01 PM EST (#179768) #
What is going on with Davis Romero these days?
Mike Green - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 12:13 PM EST (#179769) #
I wouldn't look at simply Litsch 2007 vs. Janssen 2006.  Janssen has the better overall minor league record, and did relatively well in the bullpen last year.  Litsch is very young, has not really had an apprenticeship period, and does not dominate.  These are the guys you want to have 1/2 a year in the major league pen.

I like Jesse Litsch (and always have even when his hit rate was worrisome in the minors), and he would be my choice for the #6 starter to start the season. 

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 01:08 PM EST (#179770) #
Incidentally, the formal All-Internet Judges Review Board pardoned ayjackson for fuzzing up the Moody Blues lyrics and awarded him the No-Prize. Hip, hip, huzzah!
greenfrog - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 01:09 PM EST (#179771) #
I agree that Purcey could be an important player in '08. The Jays will likely need a couple of young players to step up in order to contend. I think Lind is another prime breakout candidate.
Lee - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 01:34 PM EST (#179772) #

Chuck,

After his huge leap in OPS+ from 98 to 136, it will be interesting to see how much of that gain he retains. He had a tremendously underrated 2007 (in the same ballpark, not literally, as Vernon Wells' two best seasons).

Actually, Granderson's EqA last season (.301) was better than Vernon's best (.295 in 2003), and by all measures I've seen, Granderson has been a significantly above average defensive CF his whole career, while Vernon is somewhat below average. Look, I love Vernon as much as the next Jays fan, but giving so much money and so many years to a guy with two good (i.e. significantly above average offensively) years on his resume out of five (at the time) complete seasons was ridiculous then, and looks even worse after a 2007 performance which, injury-hampered though it may have been, was subpar in every regard. The Granderson contract only serves to illustrate the differences an all-world GM like Dombrowski and, well, JP.

Caramon,

I'll be quite happy when Rios is not a Jay anymore.  This is not to say that Rios isn't a solid player... because he is, just a square peg trying to fit in a round hole on this team.  Hopefully the Left handed power of Adam Lind/Travis Snider are ready to rock, so this discussion will be over.

Really? I'd rather have as many good players on the team as possible. Rios' splits are significant but not exactly horrible (.797 OPS against RHP over 2005-2007 versus .844 against LHP).There are several RHB that will be departing over the next year or so, so that certainly shouldn't be an impediment to keeping Rios. Incidentally, Rios has contributed more cumulative WARP over the past three season than, say, Vernon (13.7 to 11.5, while playing fewer games), and personally I feel much more confident in Rios' value going forward than Wells'. 

I would have no problem with signing Rios for 5 years and anything under, say, $55-60 million. I'm not totally sold on Lind yet, and Snider, as great as it presently seems he will become, is only 20 years old and played in A ball last season; a lot of funny things can happen between there and the big leagues. At worst (unless Rios falls off a cliff), such a contract should be extremely reasonable, and therefore tradeable, by the time Lind and Snider are both ready.

SheldonL - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 03:19 PM EST (#179774) #

Lee, I'm with on Snider. Yes, he's still too young to project. Lind's minor league track record is all well and good but until he does so at the major league level, you can't bank on him becoming an everyday major leaguer.

I find it weird that there are those who would rather peg their hopes on Lind/Snider than lock up Rios who has already shown us tremendous results with the talent to surpass those results.

Anyway, what I do disagree, Lee, with is that  Vernon Wells is below average defensively. I personally think he's the best out there! Yes, Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter make the highlight reels but I argue that that's because they've got better showmanship as they often dive and make plays look spectacular. Hunter often dives for balls that he needn't necessarily dive for and it makes for great TV.

But Vernon Wells is a different animal. He's got as good range as either Jones or Hunter. He reads the balls off the bat extremely well and as a result, he gets to balls that would usually be doubles in the gaps. He's far from average and not on the side of average that you think. He's way above average!

Avail - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 03:35 PM EST (#179775) #

There is little doubt that Vernon is an above average defensive CF, but he's average or below offensively, which people don't seem to be willing to accept. I was at the state of the franchise last night and made the point to JP that Wells' offensive production is comparable to Xavier Nady when you look at triple slash stats. I won't get into comparisons of RBI's and such because they hit in different ballparks and different lineups (and different spots in those lineups) but by triple/ they are pretty similar.

The other issue with Wells is his size. He's not a small boy, and as he ages I would be surprised if he can remain in CF. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the corner OF by year 4 or 5 of his contract, and while his offense is ok for a CF, its below average for corner OF.

So we're going to be paying through the teeth for below average offense in a corner outfielder by the end of the contract.

Brutal.

Lee - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 03:41 PM EST (#179776) #

Sheldon,

I find it weird that there are those who would rather peg their hopes on Lind/Snider than lock up Rios who has already shown us tremendous results with the talent to surpass those results.

Couldn't have said it better. Personally, I think it is part of the trend which has emerged over the last couple of years of hardcore baseball fans becoming absolutely enamored with their team's prospects. At some point, you have to look at performance instead of projection.

But Vernon Wells is a different animal. He's got as good range as either Jones or Hunter. He reads the balls off the bat extremely well and as a result, he gets to balls that would usually be doubles in the gaps. He's far from average and not on the side of average that you think. He's way above average!

I'm still open to consideration on the subject of Vernon's defense, hence, I prefaced my statement with the caveat "by all measures I've seen," i.e., by defensive metrics. According to Fielding Runs, Vernon was an at least marginally below-average defensive CF in every full season except 2004. He also ranked last in the AL in Range Factor for a CF  in 2007 (2.29, with Coco Crisp leading the way at 3.07 and Granderson close behind) and 2006, and was second to last in 2005. He has done much better by Zone Rating, however. Admittedly, I don't see any major problems with his defensive subjectively, and defensive stats are still rudimentary and relatively unreliable. So, while Vernon's consistently horrible showings in FR and RF leave me concerned that his defense is costing the team more runs than appears to be the case subjectively, I will concede that I can't come close to saying definitively that he is a bad defender.

Lee - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 03:47 PM EST (#179777) #

So we're going to be paying through the teeth for below average offense in a corner outfielder by the end of the contract.

Brutal.

Yup, that's about the size of it. I can think of several ways that Vernon's money could be better spent to make this team a legitimate contender (and even moreso at the time the contract was signed), both now and in the future. Like I said, Vernon seems to be a great guy who I like to watch, but paying a premium for a "face of the franchise" (or some such nonsense) with somewhat marginal actual performance is a horrible misstep for a team trying to compete with MLB's two richest franchises.

Pistol - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 03:50 PM EST (#179778) #
I don't mind relying on projection of a player, but isn't Lind's upside offensively pretty much what Rios put up the last 2 years (not to mention a big difference in defensive value)?
Avail - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 03:58 PM EST (#179779) #

If Lind can give us Rios from 2006 & 2007 then I think he's a win. Not every player has to be a star, and if you can get good production from guys who are cheap and under control more power to you.

Anecdotally, I think Lind's defense is better than people give him credit for. I've watched him in LF and he makes good reads on balls and usually takes a good jump. I've seen him make some pretty nice looking diving catches as well. He might lack the defensive wizardry of Sparky in LF, but I would actually guess he's slightly above average in his glovework and instincts.

Not sure about range though. Anyone know how his Zone Rating looks?

Lee - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 04:06 PM EST (#179781) #

I don't mind relying on projection of a player, but isn't Lind's upside offensively pretty much what Rios put up the last 2 years (not to mention a big difference in defensive value)?

Lind's 2007 five-year PECOTA projections were for an EqA in the range of .280 to .290 over 2007-2011. So before last season, lind's 50th percentile projections were, overall, roughly what Rios had produced in 2006, while Rios himself was projected for a bit of a regression. Given that Rios stayed roughly steady in 2007 and Lind took a big step back from his minor league and September '06 MLB performance, however, I would expect the projections to change significantly in favor of Rios.

brent - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 05:41 PM EST (#179786) #

I can't remember which Harball Times article that talked about the defensive metrics (to link it), but the conclusion the author came to was that good defenders in large parks scored better than good defenders in small parks. Poor fielders in small parks also fared better by the numbers, too. For example, Rios is a good defender and may suck up more fly ball opportunities for Vernon is the logic behind this. Also, Vernon may not be able to go as far in a smaller park than Comerica to catch baseballs. I wouldn't take the stats too seriously for Vernon as of yet.

TamRa - Wednesday, February 06 2008 @ 08:40 PM EST (#179793) #
Cannot believe Wells is going to be making $23M in 2011. And $63M for the three years after that. That is a lot of money.

The more deals like Hunter's get signed, the more I think that by the winter of 2011, a 32 year old Vernon Wells will consider it a no-brainer to opt out of the last three years of that deal while he is still relatively young rather than try to get another big contract when he's 35.

If he plays at a level of at least an .850 OPS over the next 4 years, he will almost certainly take the early exit. And the Jays should let him. At that point they can go forward with an OF of Rios in CF, Snider in right, and Chavez in LF (with Lind at 1B)...and that's not considering Eiland, Tolisino (if he moves to the OF) or any OF drafted or traded for between now and then.


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