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The Arizona Diamondbacks surprised a lot of people with their first place finish in the NL West last year.  This season they should again be in good position to take the division over the Dodgers and the Padres.

The 2007 Diamondbacks featured a lot of young players, most of them drafted by the Diamondbacks.  Sixteen of the 2007 "regulars" were drafted or signed by Arizona.  The drafting rough rule of thumb is that teams should get one full time and one part time player from each draft.  The D'Backs have done better than that, particularly in 2004 and 2005.

In 2000 Brandon Webb was drafted in the eighth round and has produced excellent value for an eighth round pick.  Chad Tracy was a 7th round pick in 2001, catcher Chris Snyder was a second round pick in 2002.  Conor Jackson was drafted in the first round in 2004, four picks after Aaron Hill.  In 2004 Stephen Drew was picked 15th, David Purcey went with the next pick.  The big bonus for the D'Backs that year was finding Mark Reynolds in the 16th round.  Justin Upton was the first overall pick in 2005.  When you add it all up five of Arizona's starting eight fielders were drafted by Arizona between 2001 and 2005.  The three exceptions were Eric Byrnes, a free agent; Orlando Hudson, traded for a free agent (Troy Glaus); and Chris Young who was obtained in a trade for Javier Vazquez who was obtained by Arizona in exchange for Randy Johnson, signed as a free agent.

Arizona's farm system also produced two of 2007's starting pitchers, Webb and Owings, and six relievers.  Finally the D'Backs farm system had enough "left-overs" to trade for Danny Haren in the off-season. Because Arizona won the division in 2007 with a young team they are expected to be contenders for several years to come.  The credit for the team's success goes to the farm system and the judicious signing of free agents.

2007 players drafted or signed by Arizona

RP Jose Valverde - 1997, free agent

SP Brandon Webb - 2000, 8th round
RP Edgar Gonzalez 2000, free agent
RP Doug Slaten - 2000, 17th round

3B Chad Tracy - 2001, 7th round
RP Brandon Medders - 2001, 8th round
C  Miguel Montero - 2001, free agent

C  Chris Snyder - 2002, 2nd round
RP Dustin Nippert - 2002, 15th round
RP Tony Pena - 2002, free agent

1B Conor Jackson - 2003, 1st round (19th overall)
OF Carlos Quentin - 2003, 1st round (29th overall)

SS Stephen Drew - 2004, 1st round (15th overall)
3B Mark Reynolds - 2004, 16th round

RF Justin Upton - 2005, 1st round (1st overall)
SP Micah Owings - 2005, 3rd round


One unusual aspect of the D'Backs 2007 season was that they were outscored by 20 runs.  The D'Backs were last in the NL in batting average and on-base percentage in 2007.  One reason for the D'Backs success in 2007 despite the run differential was the bullpen use by manager Bob Melvin.  Arizona suffered several blow-outs where Melvin let the score get out of hand but Arizona's bullpen was excellent in close games.  Arizona were 32-20 in one-run games, a major league best in 2007.  That could be a sign that the Diamondbacks were lucky or could be a sign of a deep bullpen.

Offense

C  Chris Snyder/Miguel Montero

Snyder was expected to be the backup heading into 2007 but played more than Montero and hit better too.  Montero will likely start 2008 on the DL leaving Snyder in the starters role again.  Robbie Hammock will provide backup until Montero returns.

1B Conor Jackson

Jackson had the same OBP, .368, in 2007 and 2006.  Jackson did increase his slugging in 2007 and his OPS+ increased from 103 to 110.  That level is average to below average for a first baseman but he will still be 25 on opening day and has room for improvement.

2B Orlando Hudson

O-Dog had one of his best years in 2007 but unfortunately was injured just before the playoffs.  As Blue Jay fans know Hudson provides gold glove level defense and in 2007 he upped his hitting to a career high .296 batting average with 70 walks and 47 extra base hits.

SS Stephen Drew

Drew played 56 games in 2006 and was the full time shortstop in 2007.  Drew only hit .238 but he did walk 60 times to bump his OBP to .313.  Drew doesn't have a lot of power and Arizona have talked about needing Drew to step up his production to keep his job.  As Drew just turned 25 last week most forecast models predict he will increase his batting average to around .260 this season.

3B Mark Reynolds/Chad Tracy

Reynolds came out of nowhere in 2007 when Chad Tracy was injured.  Reynolds hit 37 home runs in 366 at-bats with a SLG of .495.  Reynolds will still only be 24 on opening day and finding this value in a 16th round pick is a big bonus for the 'Backs.  Reynolds is a free swinger who briefly tried in spring training to be more selective but has decided to go back to his old ways.  Sometimes a player will struggle in his second season, a free swinger like Reynolds would be a prime suspect to do so.

Tracey had knee surgery in the off-season and subsequently developed a blood clot and had to go on blood thinners.  As a result Tracy's start of the season will be delayed by a trip to the DL.  It is uncertain where and when Tracy will play when he is game ready, Reynolds performance will dictate Tracy's playing time.

LF Eric Byrnes

Over eight major league seasons Byrnes has an OPS+ of 100 meeting the definition of a league average player.  However Byrnes adds an enthusiastic attitude, hustle on the bases and in the field and, with Hudson, shows the young guys how to play the game every day in the major leagues.  Byrnes can play all three outfield positions if required.

CF Chris Young

Young was obtained from the White Sox in the Javier Vazquez deal after the 2005 season.  Young hit only .237 in his first full major league season but he added 32 home runs and 43 walks.  Young played most of last season as a 23 year old, Arizona expects him to add 20 or 30 points to his batting average in 2008 which combined with his walks and power mould have him on the path to stardom.

RF Justin Upton

Upton came up as a 19 year old last season and played in 43 games and hit just .221.  Carlos Quentin had the job for most of 2007 but he was traded in the off-season.  Few 19 year olds play in the major leagues and those who do are usually very talented.  Upton might struggle a bit in 2008 but he has the talent to adapt and develop.

Bench

Chris Burke can play all positions other than catcher and will fill the utility role and can play shortstop if Drew continues to struggle.  It looks like Trot Nixon will make the team as the fourth outfielder and will provide insurance in case Drew needs more minor league time.  Augie Ojeda can also backup in the infield.  Jeff Salazar will provide outfield depth.

Pitching

SP Brandon Webb

Webb pitched 236 innings last season, his fourth straight with over 200 IP.  Webb's 3.01 ERA and 18 wins left him second in Cy Young voting and despite's Haren's arrival Webb is the ace of the squad.  Webb's sinker heavy repertoire mandates a strong defense and Hudson and Drew provide that.

SP Dan Haren

Haren is the big offseason addition to the team and he is a big addition.  Haren was the ace of the Oakland squad and is still only 27 years old.  Haren has pitched over 200 innings in each of the last three years and should provide a strong 1-2 punch with Webb.  Haren lowered his ERA by over a run last year to 3.07 which translates to an ERA under 3 in the NL.  Haren's most similar pitchers at baseball reference are Donovan Osborne and Oil Can Boyd which might have frightened Billy Beane enough to trade Haren.

SP Randy Johnson

Johnson only started ten games last season due to a back injury and at 44 years old his ability to pitch a full season must be a major doubt.  Johnson will not pitch a full season in 2008 as he will start the season on the DL due to his recovery from the back injury.  When Johnson does pitch he will give Arizona a very strong 1-2-3 in their rotation.

SP Micah Owings

Owings made 27 starts in 2007 with a very respectable 4.30 ERA.  Owings also batted .333 with a .683 slugging leading to talk of Owings possibly playing first base on occasion this year.  I am not sure if we will see that but don't be surprised to see him pinch hit.  His batting ability should help his won-loss record as it boosts the offense when he pitches.  In 2007 60% of Owings 20 hits went for extra bases.

SP Doug Davis

Davis, a former Blue Jay, made 33 starts, won 13 games, and had a 4.25 ERA.  Despite the apparent strength of those numbers Davis is less than overpowering and always works with lots of baserunners.  Davis's margin of error between his 4.25 ERA and a 5.00 ERA is very slim.

Bullpen

The bullpen includes Chad Qualls, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Tony Pena, Edgar Gonzalez, Doug Slaten, Dustin Nippert, and Brandon Medders.  With Jose Valverde gone to Houston Brandon Lyon has been appointed as the closer but Chad Qualls could potentially also close.  Lyons was the closer back in 2005 so Arizona knows he has the temperament to handle the role.

Summary

The Diamondbacks are counting on their young players to improve this season and combined with the addition of Dan Haren and the return of the big unit expect to retain their division title.  The Dodgers, Rockies and Padres each hope to dethrone Arizona but I will back the kids and say Arizona will be one game better in 2008 at 91-61 but they will retain the division.

2008 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview | 1 comments | Create New Account
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Sister - Wednesday, March 26 2008 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#181504) #
Nice review.

I too see the D'Backs taking the division again. I really like what they have done in terms of player development and in capitalizing on their assets to bring in more experience, talent upgrades like Haren.

Lyons will be out of the closer's role by the end of April with Pena taking over -- he has legitimate closer stuff!
2008 Arizona Diamondbacks Preview | 1 comments | Create New Account
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