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Gregory: "Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?"
Holmes: "To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time."
Gregory: "The dog did nothing in the night-time."
Holmes: "That was the curious incident."

Which one of my old professors used to call "The Silver Blaze Effect."

Once more, with a left-handed pitcher opposing them, the Blue Jays hitters did approximately as much as the dog in the night-time. Which is a curious incident.

The excellent work of A.J. Burnett allowed the team to sneak away with a victory, despite putting but a single run on the board. Still, the team has but a 7-15 record in games where the opposition started a southpaw. Who saw this coming? Toronto's RH heavy lineup figured to punish left-handers for even showing up. It was the regular folks that they were worried about. This was one of the reasons Shannon Stewart was brought in ahead of Reed Johnson.

So what's happened?

This. Read 'em and weep.
 9 April - Greg Smith, Oak      L  3-6
10 April - Dana Eveland, Oak L 2-3
16 April - Kason Gabbard, Tex L 5-7
18 April - Kenny Rogers, Det L 4-8
20 April - Nate Robertson, Det W 5-3
29 April - Jon Lester, Bos L 0-1
 2 May - Mark Buehrle, Chi W 2-0
 3 May - John Danks, Chi W 5-2
 9 May - C.C. Sabathia, Cle L 1-6
10 May - Aaron Laffey, Cle L 0-12
12 May - Cliff Lee, Cle W 3-0
15 May - Glen Perkins, Min W 3-2
16 May - Jamie Moyer, Pha L 3-10
27 May - Greg Smith, Oak L 1-3
29 May - Dana Eveland, Oak W 12-0
 6 June - Brian Burres, Bal L 5-6
9 June - Jarrod Washburn, Sea L 2-3
15 June - Ted Lilly, Chi L 4-7
17 June - Manny Parra, Mil L 0-7
20 June - Zach Duke, Pgh L 0-1
21 June - Paul Maholm, Pgh L 3-6
29 June - Jo-Jo Reyes, Atl W 1-0

Yup, it had been exactly one month since the Jays won a game started by an opposing left-hander. You will note that four of the seven wins the Jays have managed came when their own pitcher tossed a shutout at the other team. Let's put this another way:

The Jays are 3-15 against LF starters when they don't get a shutout from their own pitcher.

The Jays have beaten the crap out of a left-handed starter exactly once all year - Dana Eveland on May 29. Even John Danks and Kason Gabbard held the Jays to two runs each - the rest of the scoring in those games came against right-handed relievers.

As you can see, none of these games were started by Lefty Grove or Sandy Koufax. No sign of Warren Spahn or Steve Carlton. Even Johan Santana and Randy Johnson have missed the Jays this season. OK, C.C. Sabathia has a Cy Young Award and a few of these guys (Moyer, Buehrle, Lilly, Rogers) have gone to All-Star Games and Cliff Lee probably will this season. But still...


First, let's have a look at everybody's career splits:

           Split   G   AB   H   2B 3B  HR  RBI BB IBB  SO HBP SH SF ROE GDP  SB CS  BA   OBP  SLG  OPS   tOPS+
                                                                                                       
BARAJAS   vs RHP  531 1433  352  88  1  49 189  81  8 264  16 17 14  12  25  1  2 .246 .291 .411  .702  98
BARAJAS   vs LHP  244  461  110  32  0  19  70  35  6  69   7  5  3   3  12  0  0 .239 .300 .432  .732  106   
                                                                                                    
ECKSTEIN  vs RHP  918 2809  805 118 13  15 205 203  1 251  85 63 24  40  46 73 27 .287 .350 .354  .704  97
ECKSTEIN  vs LHP  493 1146  325  54  5  16  98  96  1  70  39 14  8  18  26 39 16 .284 .357 .381  .738  107   
                                                                                                       
HILL    vs RHP  438 1268  352  82  6  17 138  84  3 170  16 12 13  12  35  9  6 .278 .327 .392  .719  92
HILL    vs LHP  209 452  137  32  2  11  50  49  3  70   1  2  2   6  10  6  2 .303 .371 .456  .827  121   

McDONALD vs RHP 424 957 221 41 7 5 51 37 0 156 10 25 4 13 19 19 8 .231 .266 .304 .570 93
McDONALD vs LHP 230 454 115 19 4 3 53 30 0 67 5 13 5 5 12 9 2 .253 .304 .333 .636 116
                                                                                                      
MENCH    vs RHP  580 1536  390  89  9  49 206 109  4 258  22  2 15  16  23  5  5 .254 .310 .419  .729  86
MENCH    vs LHP  353 746  224  53  5  40 119  65  9  59   5  0  8  11   9  6  1 .300 .357 .546  .902  128   
                                                                                                       
OVERBAY   vs RHP  699 1929  544 147  4  59 268 305 36 360   2  1 14  15  55 11  3 .282 .378 .454  .832  106
OVERBAY   vs LHP  388 726  203  50  3  18  89  37  0 170   7  0  6   8  27  1  3 .280 .318 .431  .749  84   
                                                                                                       
RIOS    vs RHP  559 1695  488  99 21  40 200 120  3 326  14  1 18  17  33 67 20 .288 .337 .442  .779  99
RIOS    vs LHP  279 625  177  45  7  16  83  57  4 122   2  0  7   8  26 10  7 .283 .342 .454  .796  103   
                                                                                                       
ROLEN    vs RHP 1473 4433 1259 310 28 204 802 482 25 870  85  1 53  35  97  84 34 .284 .361 .505  .866  97
ROLEN    vs LHP  684 1273  357  87  6  63 236 260 27 260  17  0 16  15  23  24  8 .280 .405 .507  .912  109   
                                                                                                       
SCUTARO   vs RHP  524 1404  373  76  9  20 147 120  3 201   6 15 13  21  41  16  6 .266 .323 .375  .699  100
SCUTARO   vs LHP  252 473  112  22  3  13  53  61  2  69   0  3  2   7   9   3  1 .237 .323 .378  .701  100   
                                                                                                       
STAIRS    vs RHP 1501 3931 1076 235 12 212 687 542 47 758  41  5 31  31  85  19 20 .274 .365 .501  .866  105
STAIRS    vs LHP  595 875  206  44  0  37 156 113  1 236  11  0  7   8  20   9  4 .235 .328 .413  .741  77   
                                                                                                       
STEWART   vs RHP 1278 4246 1257 245 31  91 461 351 11 501  59 13 26  53  93 152 49 .296 .356 .433  .789  100
STEWART   vs LHP  562 1328  396  70 10  24 119 153  5 183  15  2 12  18  22  44 22 .298 .374 .420  .794  102   
                                                                                                       
WELLS    vs RHP  953 3019  813 174 18 124 452 197  5 450  21  2 37  26  70  49 13 .269 .315 .462  .777  92
WELLS    vs LHP  476 1021  325  71  6  41 165  96  6 122   3  0  9  15  33  16  8 .318 .376 .520  .896  123   
                                                                                                      
WILKERSON vs RHP  840 2350  573 143 22  93 278 377 30 707  12 15 14  12  28  44 34 .244 .349 .442  .792  99
WILKERSON vs LHP  431 750  199  47  4  28 112 104  0 223  12  9  8   7   8   9  9 .265 .360 .451  .811  104   
                                                                                                       
ZAUN    vs RHP  974 2382  590 125  8  66 317 326 24 373  18 12 22  23  55  17 12 .248 .340 .390  .730  99
ZAUN    vs LHP  416 646  174  40  1  11  74  98  5  90   4  2  8   1  19   6  5 .269 .365 .385  .751  105   
As already noted, this is a right-handed heavy lineup. Only three left-handed batters have had more than a dozen at bats against southpaws this season (so far) - and one of them, Brad Wilkerson, has had a reverse platoon split his entire career. With the exception of Lyle Overbay and Matt Stairs, everyone on this team normally hits better against left-handed pitching. Everyone. And even Overbay has been able to maintain his .280 batting average against southpaws, although he loses a bit of his power and doesn't walk nearly as often. Stairs is the guy who loses the most production against southpaws - he drops almost 40 points of BAVG and almost 100 points of slugging.

The sole switch-hitter on the roster, Gregg Zaun, has hit a little bit better against lefties over the course of his career.

But most of the RH batters don't have much in the way of platoon splits, either.  Kevin Mench, a lefty-basher his entire career (until he arrived in Toronto this season) had by far the biggest platoon split on the team. Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill both hit significantly better against southpaws. But the rest of the RH lineup was pretty much indifferent to the type of pitcher on the mound.

So who's acting funny?

Lots of guys. Behold:

NAME            GP  AB    R   H   2B  3B  HR RBI  BB   SO  SB  CS  HP  SH  SF GDP   BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
                                                                                  
David Eckstein  22   42  6   12   4   0   1   4    6   1   0   0   2   0   0   3  .286   .400   .452   .852
Aaron Hill    20   42   3   12   4   0   0   4   10   8   1   0   1   1   1   0  .286   .426   .381   .807
Shannon Stewart 24   49   3   14   1   1   1   7    5   6   0   0   3   0   1   2  .286   .379   .408   .787
Vernon Wells   24   52   6   16   4   0   0   3    4  10   1   0   0   0   1   3  .308   .351   .385   .735
Joe Inglett    7    8   0    2   1   0   0   0    1   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  .250   .333   .375   .708
Rod Barajas    21   52   4   14   5   0   1   8    1   6   0   0   0   0   0   2  .269   .283   .423   .706
Scott Rolen    27   52   5   12   4   0   0   2    9   8   1   0   2   0   0   1  .231   .365   .308   .673
Gregg Zaun    20   32   3    6   1   0   1   2    8   4   0   0   0   0   0   0  .188   .350   .313   .663
Brad Wilkerson  17   29   3    8   1   0   0  4    3   9   0   0   0   2   1   1  .276   .333   .310   .644
Marco Scutaro   29   68   6   16   1   1   1  5    8   8   0   0   0   0   0   0  .235   .316   .324   .639
Frank Thomas    7   14   1    2   0   0   1  2    2   3   0   0   0   0   0   1  .143   .250   .357   .607
Alex Rios    32   83   8   19   6   0   1  9    4  22   2   0   0   0   2   5  .229   .258   .337   .596
Lyle Overbay    39   77   5   18   3   0   0  3    6  21   0   1   0   0   0   4  .234   .289   .273   .562
Kevin Mench    19   42   4    9   2   0   0  3    5   6   1   0   0   0   1   2  .214   .292   .262   .554
Curtis Thigpen   1    1   0    0   0   0   0  0    1   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .500   .000   .500
John McDonald    9   19   3    4   0   0   0  1    2   5   0   0   0   1   0   0  .211   .286   .211   .496
Matt Stairs    14   18   0    1   0   0   0  0    1   9   0   0   0   0   0   0  .056   .105   .056   .161
Adam Lind    7    9   1    0   0   0   0  0    1   2   0   0   0   0   0   1  .000   .100   .000   .100
Jorge Velandia   2    7   0    0   0   0   0  0    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
Roy Halladay    1    3   0    0   0   0   0  0    0   2   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
Dustin McGowan   1    1   0    0   0   0   0  0    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
Jesse Litsch    2    3   0    0   0   0   0  0    0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000
David Purcey    1    1   0    0   0   0   0 0    0   1   0   0   0   0   0   0  .000   .000   .000   .000

Totals     55  704  61 165  37   2   7 57   77 134   6   1   8   4   7  25  .234  .314   .322   .637

With Mench falling off the planet, the nearest thing to a lefty-masher on the roster is Vernon Wells. V-Dub's doing okay against southpaws this season, except that he's yet to homer against a southpaw. It's only 52 ABs, of course - he'd normally only have 2 HRs anyway - but that's the main reason his slugging and OPS is down a little.

Alex Rios has not had much of a platoon split over his career, but this season he's hitting more than 70 points better against RH pitching. Likewise Scott Rolen - Rolen has had very little in the way of a platoon split over his career - he's basically the same hitter no matter who's pitching. The southpaws walk him more often. Not this year. Like Rios, he's hitting 60 points better against RH, and like Wells he has yet to homer against a southpaw.

Overbay has yet to homer against a lefty, and he's hitting 40 points lower against them - he's come up with a Matt Stairs type platoon split. (Stairs himself is 1-18 against LHP, which sort of speaks for itself.)  Both the catchers are hitting better against RH, which is acceptable. Zaun isn't going to play much against left-handers anyway. Barajas has been a little better against righties this year as well, but not by a large margin. Aaron Hill, missing in action, has hit significantly better against southpaws in his brief career - only Mench and Wells gain more production, and Hill has stayed true to form this season.

The real big stories then: Wells' power outage, Overbay developing a normal platoon split, and Rios and Rolen stumbling into a weird mirror universe. 

The cumulative effect has been to turn the team into something rather like John McDonald when a southpaw takes the hill. I actually like David Eckstein, but he should not be leading your team in any offensive category. Except maybe sac bunts, and getting hit by the pitch. Anything else is a very bad sign, and suggests an oncoming apocalypse. He certainly should not be your team's leader in OPS, nor should he be tied for the team lead in homers (thanks to that three run shot off Nate Robertson.)

It is, of course, a very small sample size. We take our comfort where we find it, right?


30 June 2008: Silver Blaze and the Bend Sinister | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Quwyetr - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#188165) #
I was going to say the OPS+ figures look off until I realized they were tOPS+. Nice work as always Magpie, but I will wait till morning so I can take in everything coherently haha.
China fan - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#188167) #
Well, this does explain why Eckstein was at DH yesterday.  Cito crazy like fox.  I knew Eckstein had been hitting better in the past month, but I never would have guessed that he was leading the entire team in batting against southpaws this year.  On the other hand, Cito's strategy didn't actually produce any results from Eckstein yesterday, and you'd wonder if Eckstein's performance in 42 at-bats this season is sufficient to outweigh an entire career in which his numbers against southpaws were entirely ordinary.  But, it was worth a try, I guess.
The_Game - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 08:00 AM EDT (#188168) #

The Jays have a league-worst .635 OPS agaisnt lefties this season, and I don't see it improving. Without lefty mashers Frank Thomas, Troy Glaus, and Aaron Hill, and the lack of production from Wells and Rios agaisnt them, this dropoff isn't that much of a surprise to me.  As for who to DH agaisnt them, well David Eckstein is really as good a choice as any at this point. It's not like they have anybody better to do that job (Mench proved, for whatever reason, that he couldn't).

AWeb - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#188169) #
I'd be shocked if the Jays stay at an 635 OPS for the year against lefties - that's a putrid level of production, and there's no way that the current group will maintain it. Since the Jays aren't an offensive powerhouse at the best of times, and they've put in 3 months of suck, they might still end up at or near the bottom of the league, but aside from Eckstein, every other player will significantly improve just by having a decent second half against lefites.
Barry Bonnell - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#188170) #

OT from the Toronto Sun:

So Devon White was asked a simple question on TSN's Off The Record: "Robbie Alomar, Hall of Famer or not?" White's strange and uncomfortable answer: "Next question."

braden - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#188177) #

According to the Seattle Post-Intelligence, the Jays will definitely miss King Felix.  Tuesday's game will be pitched by a number of Seattle relievers, which means they're counting on R.A. Dickey to go for a while tonight.

John Northey - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#188180) #
The Sun article is very short on details about White and his response to Alomar in the HOF.  Basically what Bonnell said is it.  On 'Off The Record' they have a link for a podcast on their main page but, since I'm at the office, I can't really listen to it.

I wonder, if White really isn't feeling Alomar is a HOF'er, that it is due to how the rest of the Jays of that era have been treated in HOF voting.  The core was Carter, White, Alomar (others were vital but those were the big 3 for both years) and Carter and White didn't get past the first ballot.  White was viewed as the premier defensive outfielder of his day with 7 gold gloves and probably deserving of more.  He had just shy of 2000 hits with 208 HR's and 346 stolen bases.  To most players other stats (such as his 98 OPS+) aren't as important.  Alomar beats White in all departments (2724 H, 210 HR, 474 SB 10 GG) but Carter was just shy of 400 HR and 1500 RBI and I suspect White was thinking Carter was almost a lock when the Home Run was mixed in.  Could be superstition and hoping not to curse Alomar.

Funny how from the 83-93 stretch of strong teams the HOF'ers are just guys passing through (Niekro, Molitor, Winfield) plus two second basemen who might get in (Kent & Alomar) and a starter who was the arch enemy for years (Morris who I suspect gets in someday).

christaylor - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#188181) #
I just watched the OTR and I think the Sun comment makes too much of it. Devo's asked the question looks to the right (which some researchers take as a sign of constructing a lie - but take that with a grain of salt), stops himself and says next question. I gut tells me that he was thinking of lying and saying "yes" but realized the format of the show allowed him to not have to do that (which I'm sure he's probably had to do before).

I agree with him, if he thinks Alomar is not a HOFer... he isn't. Neither is Carter, nor is Devo. Those were great teams in the late 80s, early 90s, but the were great because of their construction as teams, not because of any of the individual performers.
Magpie - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#188183) #
Advanced statistical analysis, not exactly my thing. I actually thought the "t" in tOPS+ was a random character I'd put there by mistake, and initially removed it...

Found another dumb mistake (should I do this stuff when I'm, you know, awake and alert?) - four of the Jays wins against LH came when their own guys tossed a shutout. I originally had three.

Oh, and how is Roberto Alomar not a Hall of Famer? Just how high do you have to set the bar if you're going to leave out one of the ten best second basemen in the history of the game? You'll have to evict at least half the guys who are there now, that's for sure.

RhyZa - Monday, June 30 2008 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#188184) #
Robbie not a hall of famer is laughable. 

Devo is a defensive hall of famer, truly one of the best ever.

Joe, while good in his role, I'm sure we can all agree is not one.

30 June 2008: Silver Blaze and the Bend Sinister | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.