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Pitchers are an odd beast. They can have career years at age 20 (Dwight Gooden) or age 45 (Phil Niekro). OK, Phil's age 35 season might have been better.

There is a reason no one claims to predict pitchers with a high degree of accuracy, and why TINSTAAPP. Still, lets see how the Jays are doing vs their careers.



For this exercise I'll focus on IP BB/9 SO/9 ERA ERA+ as that tells the majority of the tale. W-L and Saves are more a function of how the manager uses them and how good the team around them is rather than the players individual skill. Some would say the same of ERA, but it is an oldie that many enjoy (including me).

For reference: Team Totals: IP: 852.1 BB/9: 2.97 SO/9: 7.33 ERA: 3.63 (3rd in the AL) ERA+: 112

The Starting Rotation... fairly strong, the weakest link is also the best trade chip
Roy Halladay... The Ace
  • Age31 IP 146.3 BB:1.29 vs 2.12 SO:7.44 vs 6.33 ERA:2.71 vs 3.55 ERA+ of 151 vs 130
  • He is the ace. Doing better than normal in BB/9, SO/9, and ERA. On pace for his 2nd Cy Young with his crazy 7 CG's already.
AJ Burnett... Trade Bait
  • Age 31 IP 127 BB:4.04 vs 3.78 SO:8.93 vs 8.23 ERA: 4.96 vs 3.88 ERA+ of 82 vs 108
  • Has had his issues, but still a great one when he is focused. If he stays I expect a situation like Cito had with David Wells years ago to emerge at some point (it was ugly).
Dustin McGowan... Injured and out
  • Age 26 IP: 111.1 BB: 3.07 vs 3.59 SO: 6.87 vs 7.25 ERA: 4.37 vs 4.71 ERA+ of 93 vs 92
  • Talented but almost as much of a variable as AJ. Now out with a rotator cuff tear but might be able to avoid the knife.
Jesse Litsch... Young and talented, but feels like a tightrope walk every time
  • Age 23 IP:110.1 BB:1.39 vs 2.16 SO:4.73 vs 4.39 ERA: 4.16 vs 3.98 ERA+ of 98 vs 107
  • His stats this year and last are now with 2/3 IP so a direct comparison can be done...
    2008 vs 2007: 127 H vs 116, 59 R vs 56, 16 HR vs 14, 17 BB vs 36, 58 SO vs 50. He has improved in most key areas.
  • Pretty good for a 5th guy. Sadly I fear the ghost of Chacin (now in A ball, probably to be released by end of season). Low K/9, but it is improving. If he gets it over 5 I might start believing.
Shawn Marcum... Breakthrough year, but also broken down
  • Age 26 IP: 98.2 BB:2.46 vs 3.09 SO:7.84 vs 7.25 ERA: 2.65 vs 3.82 ERA+ of 154 vs 115
  • Hits per 9, walks per 9, K's per 9, Pitcher per IP all career bests. His 5 HBP is also a career high, so watch out batters!
  • If he comes back as good as he left we have our solid #2. His BB-SO is within eyeshot of Halladay's career averages and that is saying something.
Also... John Parrish: Age 30 2.77 ERA in 2 starts, a 100 ERA+ lifetime, 2.74 ERA in AAA with 3.8 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9. Solid backup, deserves the shot he is getting.

Minors... lots of talent, some almost here
  • David Purcey: Age 26 A pair of wild ML starts plus 111 IP in AAA, 2.8 BB, 9.2 K, 2.76 ERA. If he gets another shot he better do something with it or risk being labeled a AAAA guy (good enough for AAA, not for the ML).
  • Brett Cecil: Age 21, climbing very fast. 1.74 ERA in A+, 2.86 in AA. Total of 2.7 BB/9, 9.45 K/9. Looks to be very, very close but might be left down for 2008 so he doesn't have to go on the 40 man this winter (this is his 2nd pro season) but I expect him to be starting here in 2009
  • Bradley Mills: Age 23, A and A+, 2.45 ERA overall, 3.2 BB/9, 9.8 K/9. A potential fast riser, could find himself in AA by August with an invite to spring training 2009. 14th round pick in '06 who looks darn good.
  • A stack of others are solid, but not jumping off the page as being able to break into this rotation or move ahead of Cecil and Purcey. Say what you will about JP but he has built up a very deep starting rotation.

Bullpen... 7 guys over 100 for ERA+ but very long in the tooth

Scott Downs
... multi year deal and earning it
  • Age 32 IP:42.2 BB:3.80 vs 3.56 SO:7.80 vs 6.94 ERA:1.69 vs 4.14 ERA+ 242 vs 108
  • Has been very reliable but that BB/9 figure has me a bit nervous. Every year since he got here his BB/9 figure has been getting a bit worse. Might not be a bad idea to sell high here if someone jumps at that shiny ERA.
Brian Tallet... doing his job
  • Age 30 IP: 36.2 BB:3.68 vs 4.24 SO:7.85 vs 6.62 ERA:3.19 vs 3.62 ERA+ 128 vs 122
  • His best control since his rookie year (faced just 47 batters that year). His highest K/9 ever. Cheap, solid guy in the pen
BJ Ryan... closer who is darn good
  • Age 32 IP:31.2 BB:4.55 vs 4.32 SO:9.38 vs 10.79 ERA:2.84 vs 3.25 ERA+: 143 vs 137
  • Walks are the worst since '03 and K's the lowest since '02
  • 18 for 20 in saves, easy to count on, but a lot more wild than before and not as good at the K
Jesse Carlson... from out of nowhere a solid setup guy
  • Age 27 IP: 30 BB: 3.60 SO: 9.60 ERA:2.10 ERA+:194 this is his first ML season
  • Sweet debut season. Proof that you don't need to pay $3 million to a mediocre setup man
Jason Frasor... forgotten man
  • Age 30 IP:28.1 BB:6.04 vs 3.98 SO:8.58 vs 8.18 ERA:3.81 vs 3.98 ERA+ 107 vs 114
  • Completely lost out there, the 6th of 7 men in a pen that rarely has that much work. His wildness is worse than I noticed, not that he gets many chances at points in the game when we'd all notice him.
Shawn Camp... mediocre reliever in TB, solid here
  • Age 32 IP:24.2 BB:1.46 vs 2.47 SO:6.93 vs 6.59 ERA:3.65 vs 5.11 ERA+:112 vs 89
  • Found his control and has been rewarded. Just 2 HR in those 24 2/3 IP too.
Brian Wolfe...low man in the pen
  • Age 27 IP:17 BB:2.65 vs 2.02 SO:5.29 vs 4.62 ERA:3.18 vs 3.03 ERA+:128 vs 144
  • Very solid for a 7th man, but those low K figures are scary out of a reliever. As long as his control holds he should survive though
Jeremy Accardo... last years closer, this years bum
  • Age 26 IP:12.1 BB:2.92 vs 2.88 SO:3.65 vs 6.66 ERA:6.57 vs 3.99 ERA+:62 vs 111
  • No strikeout pitch, no success. Fairly simple equation. Hopefully he finds it when he comes back.
Brandon League... See AJ but without the success
  • Age 25 IP:7.2 BB:11.74 vs 4.13 SO:4.70 vs 5.19 ERA:4.70 vs ERA+:87 vs 102
  • Hard to succeed when you have a K to BB ratio of 0.4
Also pitching: Armando Benitez: 6.1 IP and gone, Randy Wells got 1 IP before being sent back

Minor Leagues... to stand out here you gotta do something amazing
  • Zachary Dials: A+ and AA, 20 saves in 40.1 IP, 1 HR, 9 BB, 41 SO 2.93 ERA and 22 years old. His K/9 was nothing special until this year, so I suspect he is on a fast track now and could make the pen in '09 at some point
  • Cody Crowell: a lefty in A and A+, 49.1 IP 24 H 1 HR 25 BB 70 SO 1.84 ERA age 22. That works out to 12.77 K/9. Sweet.
  • Tim Collins: a tiny lefty in low A who isn't really viewed as a prospect yet but... 18 years old, 13.3 K/9, a WHIP of 0.83 kind of draws attention Hopefully he gets a shot at higher levels.
  • Lots of other guys deserve a mention like Nathan Starner, Orlando Roman, plus many more. However, if starters are hard to predict relievers are almost impossible. I really cannot say who the Jays would call up next, but given the depth in the majors and JP's talent for finding hidden gems I figure this area isn't a major concern.
First Half vs Careers - Who is doing what - Pitchers | 19 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Dan Daoust - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#188930) #

I think Doc has 7 CG's, but point taken.

I just hope and pray we haven't been watching a smoke-and-mirrors act all year with the starting staff.  Litsch doesn't strike out nearly enough batters to be totally believable yet; Marcum wore out last year and now this year's injury; McGowan, as you say, is looking more and more like Burnett; etc.  Hopefully Janssen comes back strong...

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#188931) #
Mark Rzepczynski probably deserves a mention.  He's doing it all so far, but has not been aggressively promoted.  Zip would be my second ranked pitching prospect behind Cecil.
TamRa - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#188932) #
Orlando Roman?!?

The 29 year old AA refugee from the Mexican League?

What's special about him?

Better to nod towards Davis Romero, or Edger Estrange or Joe Wice

Also, add me to the Zep fan club...


John Northey - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#188933) #
Oops, guess my eyes are going on me. Fixed Doc's complete game total.  I'm probably just a week or two ahead of myself :)

Thought about adding 'missing in action' for Janssen (DL for 2008) and Chacin (11 starts, 45.2 IP 2.4 BB/9, 4.3 SO/9, 7.88 ERA) but figured neither will be a factor this year and might not be next either depending on how Janssen recovers.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#188934) #
I listed Orlando due to his having 16 saves and being listed as AAA.  I should've opened his stat page though as they didn't match up for some reason. 

In truth, I keep hoping Jo Matumoto gets a shot - 37 years old, 17 BB 36 SO in 43 2/3 IP from Brazil.

Chuck - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#188935) #
depending on how Janssen recovers

Do many pitchers ever recover from torn labrums? Four years ago, the recently "critiqued" Will Caroll had this to say. My question: has the prognosis for pitchers thus afflicted improved any in the last four years?
Anders - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#188936) #
AJ Burnett's numbers this year are rather strange, and by various measures he has both improved and gotten worse. His k/bb has fallen, as has his gb/fb ratio, and his line drive rate and babip have increased significantly. Meanwhile his hr/fb ratio has normalized (it was very high last year) and his if/fb % has gone up slightly. His FIP is 3.59, much lower than his almost five ERA, and also much better than last year. Many of these numbers we consider outside his control,  so it will be interesting to see how the rest of the season unfolds for AJ.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#188938) #
There have been quite a few torn labrums (labra?) over the last 4 years, the only success story that I can find is Jon Rauch. Tony Armas Jr., Kurt Ainsworth and undoubtedly a few others had the surgery in 04-06 and have not done well so far.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#188939) #
Chris Carpenter had surgery on a torn labrum and came back with three excellent seasons before going down with elbow problems.
dan gordon - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#188940) #

Will Caroll's article is somewhat misleading.  I have seen critiques of that piece that say it presents the absolute worst case scenario.  There are a couple of good examples of pitchers who had labrum surgery prior to 2004 and recovered very well.  Chris Carpenter, who won the Cy Young Award post-surgery, and Gil Meche.  A lot of pitchers who have labrum tears also have rotator cuff tears, like Mike Schmidt, and it is very unlikely to recover from that.  Janssen just had a labrum tear, so his prognosis is not totally gloomy.  Not saying it will be easy for him to come back, but it is far from a certainty that he is done.  I'm hoping he is back pitching in the minors by early next year, shows some improvement during the year, and is able to be an important part of the Jays pitching staff in 2010.  I don't know if starting or relieving is going to be easier for his arm, but I think he has the ability to excel at either if he returns to full health. 

Chuck - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#188941) #

Interesting that Carroll wrote his piece in May of 2004. Carpenter, at that very exact time, was providing the Cards some wobbly post-return starts only to shortly thereafter find his groove and reinvent himself as a front line pitcher. It's nice to see one highly successful counter-example to Carroll's tale of woe.

Still, it would be appear that cautious optimism is in order. Gil Meche, another survivor, missed 2 1/2 seasons.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#188942) #
This article suggests that Carpenter had a torn labrum and Meche had rotator cuff surgery.  I am not saying that Dan Gordon is incorrect, but merely that it is often unclear to an outsider what the medical situation really was.  Please supply links.

dan gordon - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#188945) #
Just google Gil Meche labrum, you get all kinds of articles that talk about his torn labrum.  Here is one.
canuckiwi - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#188947) #

So all of you great baseball pundits out there, whether consciously or not, for some unknown reason leave this Richmond kid, [OK so he's not a kid,] completely out of the equation for any future consideration. What, does he have leprosy or something? He looks to me like the Canadian feel good story of the year, but doesn't warrant a mention in all of your prognostications for the future. What's up with that?

All he's done is rise to the top of the heap at every level that he's been promoted to, and his apparently seemless transition to Triple-A so far in his first three starts, has been impressive.

Is he taboo just because he wasn't drafted, or are none of you jokers able to think outside of the box just a little bit? By  maturing late, he  has a shown history of durability that Marcum and others would kill for, and he continues to get better every year. This guy could well be the sleeper that they picked up for nothing, who could anchor the rotation for years. Stranger things have happened.

But what do I know; I'm a cricket player!!

 

jerjapan - Wednesday, July 16 2008 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#188948) #
I am no fan of Riccardi, but the man certainly does no how to put together a bullpen.  IF Jansenn comes back strong we will be utterly loaded, which is why the 'sell high' on Downs idea makes total sense (or even Carlson) - not getting into the logic of a seven man bullpen, but there are some AAA guys who could contribute to the back end of the pen - Mike McDonald, Purcey (an easier way to break into the bigs?) or even under the radar Sean Stidfole if he can get his walks down ... with more to come in the lower minors. 

Another option would be converting Wolfe to a starter - but there seems to be some disagreement as to whether this is doable in the organization - Cito said Wolfe was being converted when he was sent down, but he was a pure late reliever in Syracuse.  Any thoughts on the feasability of this? 

On a side note, Jordan Bastian at the Jays official site has called Scott Rolen and Vernon Wells the closest that we have to an MVP.  While he's only talking about position players, he's probably right, and it's a telling indictment of the offense that two injury-riddled underachievers are our offensive MVPs. 

Magpie - Thursday, July 17 2008 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#188949) #
Do many pitchers ever recover from torn labrums?

Curt Schilling, in 1995.  "When I tore my labrum in 1995, I was throwing the ball 95 miles per hour one inning, and the next thing I went out and I was throwing the ball 82 m.p.h. and I didn't have any pain until the next day."

He had surgery, made it back. Don't know if he can do it twice.
Ryan Day - Thursday, July 17 2008 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#188952) #
On the other hand, the Royals say it was a rotator cuff. That seems a bit more official.
#2JBrumfield - Thursday, July 17 2008 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#188962) #

So all of you great baseball pundits out there, whether consciously or not, for some unknown reason leave this Richmond kid, [OK so he's not a kid,] completely out of the equation for any future consideration.

I have been promoting Scott Richmond here on a few occasions and I think I could be considered the unofficial president of his fan club.  He was one of the few bright lights of a dismal season in Edmonton last year.  It would be nice if he could induce a few more groundballs but his rise has been pretty impressive so far.  He is apparently starting for the Chiefs tonight against Durham at Alliance Bank Stadium.

Anders - Thursday, July 17 2008 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#188968) #
As mentioned elsewhere, Richmond is 29, which is far too old to be considered a prospect. He also gives up far too many home runs and is a flyball pitcher. Its also hard to say he's 'dominated' every level he's been at when he had an era of almost 5 in New Hampshire to start the year.
First Half vs Careers - Who is doing what - Pitchers | 19 comments | Create New Account
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