Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Top 30 Prospects: #10

On Tuesday we delivered #30-#21, and yesterday #20-#11. Now, we are proud to present our selections as the top 10 Blue Jay prospects for 2008.

10. Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
Born August 8, 1985. Selected in the 5th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	20	NCAA	16	8	52	11.01	0.52	4.30	8.43	4.47
2007	21	NCAA	12	11	73	7.80	0.00	3.10	10.40	2.72
2007	21	A-	11	7	46	6.50	0.39	3.35	9.66	2.76
2008	22	A	22	22	121	7.44	0.15	3.12	9.22	2.83

Marc Rzepczynski entered 2008 looking to build off a solid debut season but a broken hand delayed the start to his season and ultimately resulted in him spending the entire season in A-ball Lansing, despite solid numbers and his age (as he was selected in the 2007 draft in the fifth round as a college senior).

Rzepczynski is a groundball specialist who induced three ground ball outs for every fly ball out. He has allowed just four homers in 166.2 career innings. He also allowed just six homers in four college seasons. Rzepczynski improved against right-handed batters this season and held them to a .229 average (and a .234 average against lefties). He also did a nice job of buckling down with runners in scoring position with a .186 average.

He has a solid repertoire with an average fastball at 88-91 mph, as well as a curveball, slider and change-up. Rzepczynski also has good command and improving control. He posted a strikeout rate of 9.22 K/9. If healthy, he should be a fast mover in 2009 and could see Double-A by mid-season.

9. Ricky Romero, LHP
Born November 6, 1984. Selected in the 1st round (6th overall) of the 2005 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	21	A+	10	10	58.1	7.41	0.77	2.16	9.41	2.47
2006	21	AA	12	12	67.1	8.69	0.94	3.48	5.48	5.08
2007	22	A+	1	1	4.2	7.71	0.00	1.93	3.86	3.86
2007	22	AA	18	18	88.1	9.98	0.92	5.20	8.15	4.89
2008	23	AA	21	21	121.2	10.31	0.67	4.07	6.77	4.96
2008	23	AAA	7	7	42.2	8.86	0.63	4.22	8.02	3.38

Ricky Romero has the physical skills, the "stuff" to pitch in the major leagues but does he have the command of his pitches and of his emotions? For Romero it will be command that gets him to the major leagues.

Romero was only 20 years old when he was drafted in 2005 and moved through Dunedin after 18 good starts over two seasons. But AA was a wall of sorts for Romero, in parts of three seasons in New Hampshire his ERA was 5.08; 4.89; and 4.96. When Blue Jay minor league coaches and managers talked about Romero they didn't talk about pitches they talked about command and they talked about Romero's need to control his emotions and his thought process to deliver his potential on the field. Romero on the field was working to control his emotions and the pressure of being a first round pick, and remember in 2008 Romero pitched as a 23 year old in AA. Here is what Brian Jeroloman said about Romero in early June:

Ricky is so talented and Ricky is a guy we love to have on the bump every day. He wants to win more than anyone else on the field, he will do whatever he can to win the game. Catching him is very easy, it is easy to get on the same page as him, he doesn't realize how good he is, I wish he could face himself and that could make him understand how tough it is to hit against him. He has such dynamite pitches that sometimes he tries to do too much, sometimes he gets in his own way. I love catching him, he is a bulldog, catchers love that....Once he realizes how good he is, that's when things are going to start falling for him.

2008 started out as more of the same for Romero, he had ERA's of 5.61 and 7.16 in April and May. But them something started to click, his ERA in June was 4.81 and in July it went down to 2.77. What appeared to happen was that Romero cut down his walks and strikeouts, he started to pitch to contact and wasn't trying to striekout every hitter. That improvement earned Romero a trip to AAA where he had a 3.37 ERA in seven starts. Romero still walks too many hitters, 20 in 42 IP at AAA but his improvement this year has to be very encouraging for the Jays organization. Romero will get a look in spring training but given his uneven development so far look for Romero to go back to AAA to start the season and try to consolidate his gains from 2008.

8. Scott Campbell, 2B
Born September 25, 1984. Selected in the 10th round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	21	A-	240	14	0	0	30	31	2	10	.292	.397	.350
2007	22	A	390	17	4	7	68	56	4	5	.279	.390	.397
2008	23	AA	417	21	2	9	66	63	2	6	.302	.398	.427

The 6-foot, 200 pound native of Auckland, New Zealand once met Joe DiMaggio as a youngster and had a chance to sign with his favourite team, the Padres, after an Australian camp sponsored by Major League Baseball but he opted to go to college instead. He made a nice transition from Low A ball in Lansing to AA ball with New Hampshire in 2008, skipping Dunedin in the process. Campbell received plenty of recognition for his strong play as he was named an Eastern League all-star, made the post-season Eastern League all-star team as a second baseman, represented the Jays at the Futures Game in New York and won the R. Howard Webster Award as the Jays top player in New Hampshire. He got off to a great start with a .391 batting average in April and continued to hit well over .300 until a slump in August that saw him hit .155 for the month. He did suffer a hamstring injury late in the season and apparently had a sore hand which was stepped on during a dive back to first. Still, he hit .302 for the season which placed him ninth in the Eastern League and his .398 on-base percentage ranked him sixth. His plate discipline has been terrific so far in his minor league career with a K/BB total of 164 to 150 and his 30 extra base hits pushed his slugging percentage over .400 for the first time. A natural hitter with a natural swing, it's hoped Campbell can hit for a little more power down the line.

Campbell still needs to work on his defence and improve on turning the double play ball but he committed just seven errors last season, down from a dozen errors from 2007. As the first New Zealander ever to be drafted, the Gonzaga product should be in Las Vegas to begin 2009 with the possiblity for a call-up. He may also appear for Canada at the World Baseball Classic as his father grew up in Vancouver and his grandmother was born in Canada.

7. Justin Jackson, SS
Born December 11, 1988. Selected in the 1st round (45th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	RK	166	1	1	2	20	44	7	4	.187	.274	.241
2008	19	A	454	26	6	7	62	154	17	9	.238	.340	.368

A favourite of many Jays fans, Justin Jackson is part of the strong 2007 draft class that will likely reflect very well on Ricciardi and his scouting department in a few years. Jackson is easily the best shortstop prospect in the Jays system, but he�s also raw and still a long way from the majors. However, Jackson provides a great deal of hope at a barren position and has upside that few on this list can match.

Fielding is Jackson�s strength. Jackson is a plus defensive shortstop with good range, soft hands and a strong arm. A flashy fielder, Jackson has strong fundamentals on the diamond and is especially strong going to his left. If he makes the majors, you�ll likely see him on the Honour Roll on a regular basis. Jackson might very well make the majors regardless of how his bat progresses given natural defensive development. However, the Jays are hoping he turns into something more than a defensive specialist backup infielder.

Jackson has a good feel for hitting, even if he�s still raw at the plate. While questions remain about his ability to hit at higher levels. When drafted Jackson was reported to have a somewhat loopy swing and it was suggested the Jays would have to work to shorten it. Jackson improved both his walk rate and power in 2008, which are both positive signs. However, he still clearly strikes out far too often. Jackson wasn�t very strong on draft day either, but the jump in his slugging percentage indicates he�s been working on improving in that area, as well. Although the final numbers were nothing too impressive, 2008 was a positive year at the plate for Jackson given where he was at when drafted and hopefully reflects real developments he can build upon in 2009.

6. Brad Mills, LHP
Born March 5, 1985. Selected in the 4th round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	21	NCAA	17	16	82.1	10.5	0.33	4.48	8.96	4.70
2007	22	NCAA	16	14	87.2	9.24	0.31	4.41	9.14	4.41
2007	22	A-	6	2	18.0	4.50	0.00	3.00	10.50	2.00
2008	23	A-	15	15	81.1	7.88	0.33	3.11	10.21	2.55
2008	23	A+	6	6	33.1	6.80	0.54	3.26	9.52	1.35
2008	23	AA	6	6	32.2	6.71	0.56	3.35	8.94	1.10

The Jays liked Brad Mills so much they drafted him twice. After not being able to sign Mills after his junior year when he was a 22nd round pick the Jays again picked Mills following his senior year in the 4th round after he graduated with a civil engineering degree.

Mills is a fastball, curveball, change pitcher who has been working on a cutter this season. Of his pitches the changeup is especially strong, and has been considered �plus-plus�. Also working in Mills favor is a delivery that makes it hard to pick up his pitches, which almost automatically qualifies him for the crafty lefty club.

Mills is a flyball pitcher; over the course of the season his groundball to flyball ratio was 1:1, and decreased to 0.6:1 once he left Lansing. While this is not ideal, Jays roving pitching instructor Dane Johnson noted that while his fastball is generally up in the zone the pitch comes out at the same level as his curveball so the batter has uncertainty in identifying the pitch.

A trip back to New Hampshire is likely for the start of the season, but with continued success Mills should be ready to pack his bags for Sin City, if not directly to Toronto where he has the chance to solidify the back end of the rotation.

5. Kevin Ahrens, 3B
Born April 26, 1989. Selected in the 1st round (16th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	18	R	165	6	0	3	25	47	3	0	.230	.339	.321
2008	19	A-	460	25	5	5	45	135	5	1	.259	.329	.367

Ahrens's 2008 season went pretty much as planned. Playing in the MWL at the age of 19, Ahrens spent most of his year learning a new position, while also refining his switch-hitting skills. While Ahrens's strikeout rate was higher than you'd like, and his lack of power a slight cause for concern, there were certainly some bright spots to his campaign. Despite being still relatively new at hitting lefthanded, Ahrens's L/R splits were remarkably similar. Against RHP, Ahrens OPS'd .695 compared to .670 versus lefties.

Since before he was drafted, Ahrens has drawn comparisons to Chipper Jones. Even at the best of times, this seemed somewhat ambitious. To wit, at the age of 19, Jones terrorized the Sally League pitching to the tune of a .925 OPS and 69/70 BB/K ratio. Ahrens's name isn't nearly as dumb, though.

What must be remembered is that Ahrens is still nearly two years younger than the average player in the MWL. If he can make adjustments early in 2009, Kevin could be spending a good part of his season in Dunedin.

4. David Cooper, 1B
Born February 12, 1987. Selected in the 1st round (17th overall) of the 2008 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2007	20	NCAA	204	14	0	12	30	21	2	6	.382	.450	.627
2008	21	NCAA	220	14	0	19	37	35	0	1	.359	.449	.682
2008	21	A-	85	10	1	2	10	16	0	1	.341	.411	.553
2008	21	A	96	10	0	2	10	14	0	0	.354	.415	.521
2008	21	A+	92	9	0	1	10	16	0	0	.304	.373	.435

The 2008 amateur draft featured a plethora of talented college first basemen and while David Cooper was not at the top of anyone's list, there wasn't any first baseman who had a better debut that Cooper (outside, perhaps, of St. Louis' Brett Wallace who was rumoured to be Toronto's first choice in the draft and was drafted by the club out of high school).

Cooper rocketed through the lower minors, including Auburn and Lansing, and ended the year in Dunedin where he held his own. Cooper hit .333/.399/.502 in 273 combined at-bats with five homers, 29 doubles and 51 RBI. He walked 30 times with 46 strikeouts. Statistically-speaking, Cooper still has work to do as he hit just .222 against southpaws at Dunedin. His ISO also declined at each level, from .212 to .167 to .130. Defensively, his game needs a lot of work and he made five errors in just 21 games in the Florida State League. Some scouts see him as a long-term designated hitter. He does, though, have an above-average arm for the position.

Cooper should open 2009 back in Dunedin but could be in line for a quick promotion to Double-A New Hampshire if he gets off to a quick start. It will also depend on whether or not the club is able to retain minor league free agent Brian Dopirak, who was recently named the Player of the Year for Dunedin (which he earned before a late-season promotion to Double-A, which cleared the way for Cooper's own promotion).

3. JP Arencibia, C
Born January 5, 1986. Selected in the 1st round of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	19	NCAA	216	17	0	11	20	30	0	0	.352	.419	.583
2007	20	NCAA	191	15	1	8	33	38	2	2	.330	.450	.545
2007	21	R+	228	17	1	3	14	56	0	0	.254	.309	.377
2008	22	A+	248	22	0	13	11	46	0	0	.315	.344	.560
2008	22	AA	262	14	0	14	7	55	0	0	.282	.302	.496

Ok, Arencibia doesn't walk. That's definitely a concern; one he'll have to address if he hopes to enjoy further success in AA or, obviously, in the Majors. But patience aside, Arencibia impressed throughout both of his 2008 stops. After hitting just 3 HR's in 228 at-bats in 2007, partly due to a wrist injury, Arencibia whacked 13 in roughly the same number for Dunedin and then followed that up with 14 more in 67 AA games for a total of 27 HRs in 510 AB. Arencibia's splits are fairly consistent as he OPS'd .856 against righties compared to .815 versus LHP.

Behind the plate, Arencibia's defence improved by most accounts. An already strong arm was buoyed by better positioning which resulted in Arencibia nabbing over 34% of would-be basestealers in New Hampshire.

With Robinzon Diaz now in Pittsburgh and Curtis Thigpen seemingly out of favour in Toronto, Arencibia's path to the Majors is much clearer than a year ago. As it stands now, Arencibia is likely due another full year in New Hampshire and/or Las Vegas, though with some improved plate discipline, he may yet see some time in Toronto in 2009.

2. Brett Cecil, LHP
Born July 2, 1986. Selected in the Supplemental round (38th overall) of the 2007 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	G	GS	IP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9	ERA
2006	20	NCAA	26	2	58.1	8.49	0.46	3.09	8.33	4.78
2007	21	NCAA	30	2	62.1	8.95	0.43	2.74	8.95	3.32
2007	21	A-	14	13	49.2	6.52	0.18	1.99	10.15	1.27
2008	22	A+	4	4	10.1	5.23	0.87	1.74	9.58	1.74
2008	22	AA	18	18	77.2	7.65	0.46	2.67	10.08	2.55
2008	22	AAA	6	6	30.2	8.22	0.29	4.70	9.10	4.11

Brett Cecil spent almost his entire college career in the bullpen. However, the Jays saw a number of pitches out of Cecil that made them believe that he could transition to a more valuable starting role. Chalk one up for the scouting staff here.

Two of the more important indicators of success at the major league level are strikeouts and groundballs. Most pitchers are lucky to be able to do one of those things well. Cecil does both well. At each stop Cecil was able to strike out more than one batter an inning and had a groundball to flyball ratio in excess of 2:1. His pitching repertoire includes an excellent slider, low 90s sinker and a developing change up thrown from a 3-quarters arm angle.

As a college reliever Cecil doesn�t have a lot of mileage on his arm. But on the flip side, he�s been handled cautiously as he builds up his arm for a full season of pitching. In 2007 he pitched 112 innings combined between Maryland and Auburn. In 2008 he pitched just 119 innings over 28 starts. Cecil will need to demonstrate that he can pitch late into games as well as maintaining his control he showed at AA (he walked 1 every two innings in a brief, end of the season, AAA stint).

With the injuries the Jays have experienced this year to Marcum and McGowan, and the likely departure of AJ Burnett this offseason, there�s an opportunity for Cecil to crack the Jays opening day roster. At the very least a mid-season call up is likely with Cecil becoming a fixture in the Jays rotation in 2010, if not earlier.

1. Travis Snider, OF
Born February 2, 1988. Selected in the 1st round of the 2006 amateur draft.

Year	Age	Level	AB	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2006	18	R+	194	12	1	11	30	47	6	3	.325	.412	.567
2007	19	A	457	35	7	16	49	129	3	10	.313	.377	.525
2008	20	A+	61	5	0	4	5	22	1	0	.279	.333	.557
2008	20	AA	362	21	0	17	52	116	1	1	.262	.357	.461
2008	20	AAA	64	5	0	2	4	16	1	0	.344	.386	.516
2008	20	ML	73	6	0	2	5	23	0	0	.301	.338	.466

What can you say about Travis Snider that hasn't already been said? Bill James showed years ago that if a player makes it at the major league level as a 19, 20 or 21 year old the better a career that player will have. Snider's major-league performance, at age twenty, is a very promising sign for his future. Snider has been a top rated prospect since the end of his first pro-season and is now counted as one of the top ten prospects in all of baseball.

Snider had a slow start to 2008, an elbow injury in the spring limited his playing time and more seriously changed his swing. But once the elbow healed Snider got his good swing back and started hitting as he can. As soon as the weather warmed up Snider was promoted to AA and as soon as he started hitting as he can he was bumped to AAA, followed by a call to Toronto for the last month of the season.

Although Snider was succesful in the major leagues many young players have struggled in their second turn around the league. For that reason look for the Jays to plan on sending Snider to AAA to start next season unless he plays his way onto the team.

Aside from his physical tools Snider has strong "intangibles" also. Baseball America say his mental and competitive makeup is off the charts. In my discussions with coaches, managers and team officials I hear nothing but praise for his professionalism and leadership abilities.

Posted by Gerry on Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 09:00 AM EDT.

Top 30 Prospects: #10 - #1 | 34 comments | Create New Account

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SheldonL - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#193209) #

To continue China and my discussion...

China, I guess what I'm saying is that a prospect must graduate each level. As such, the chances of him being overwhelmed and losing confidence at the higher level is much reduced.
In the case of Snider, yes he made it to the bigs from A+ in the same season and did pretty well which is fine and dandy, but he's supposed to be a slugger and at AA he batted .266 and slugged well below .500.
To me, he hasn't graduated from AA. You may point out that he did slug well over .500 in AAA/majors but I think he still needs to prove that he can slug for an extended period at AAA before we deem him major league ready.

In the case of Ricky Romero, he clearly hasn't succeeded at AA and I think pitching him in AAA is a bit of a risk (one that I'm fine with). That being said, any prediction of him being major league ready at some point in 2009 is wishful thinking because he has to show that he can succeed at AAA for an entire season (or at least for most of it a la Purcey).

Cecil looks very impressive but he too must exhibit this kind of success at AAA in order to get the permanent call-up to the bigs.

As for Litsch, at the time, I was pretty upset that Janssen was overlooked because "his contribution to the bullpen was of the utmost import" (loose paraphrase of J.P and Gibbons at the time). But I think it had a lot to do with a cocky mind-frame on Litsch's part; he got off to a hot start in AA and that streak promoted him to AAA where he threw two great starts and then the Burnett injury created an opening, and he just continued that hot streak down the stretch. Well, it worked! It's amazing what confidence can do to your talent. But Litsch is not the norm; most young pitchers will experience struggles.

All I'm saying is that we should restrain our expectations of these youngsters and go out and sign a top starter to hold our rotation over until mid-2010 when Cecil and Romero start knocking on the door.

Jdog - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#193210) #

Nice job guys. Im a bit suprised to see Ahrens ahead of Jackson and Mills. Jackson plays the harder position and apparently plays it very well and he also out hit Ahrens in the MWL this past year. Mills H/9 seems really good. Im interested in seeing the Honorable mentions or players to watch or whatever its called.

Pistol - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#193211) #

Prospects to watch will come out tomorrow.

You can certainly make the case for Jackson over Ahrens. After the top 3 you could probably make the case for moving around most of #4-10.

It seems like Mills is really new to the Jays system and Romero has been around forever. And while Romero has been around 2 extra years, he's only 4 months older than Mills.

Pistol - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#193212) #

In the case of Snider, yes he made it to the bigs from A+ in the same season and did pretty well which is fine and dandy, but he's supposed to be a slugger and at AA he batted .266 and slugged well below .500.

Exactly 1 player slugged over .500 in the Midwest League this year, with the 2nd best slugging % coming in at .478.

Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#193213) #

Damn Cooper, one more 2B and more HR in high-A anf 2 more RBI in A would give him a 10 2B, 2 HR, 10 BB, and 16 K at every level. I love some good symmetry. Despite improvement, it's still not an impressive top-10. Snider has real star potential but should definitely have a full season in AAA (Why the Jays pushed his service-time ahead for 73 ABs in a lost season is still a head-scratcher). Cecil also has the look of a top prospect as he is excelling as young player at all levels (and more importantly IMO for pitchers) he has the stuff to succeed in the majors. Arencebia clearly needs to walk a lot more. Some players can have decent and occasionally even great major league careers without strike-zone judgment, but it is rare. A 101/18 K/BB ratio in the minors just does not translate into major league success. He does have some very excellent potential though and even without walking much more, he could be a serviceable catcher. If he learns to take a walk, he could be a star. Cooper has some very good raw skills which he has a decent chance to hone despite obvious weaknesses. Beyond that though, the prospects look pretty borderline at this point. I hope at least one or two of those guys who will take a big jump in development this year.

Ozzieball - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#193214) #

Glevin,

I have a toy for you.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php

The one you want to play with the most is the one furthest to the right: the peak translations. Those are the ones adjust for age. Justin Jackson, who you are deriding for his less-than-Jay-Bruce statline, created 71 peak-adjusted EQR (equivalent runs) this season, good for fourth in the league. Kevin Ahrens created 60, 2 back of 10th place in the league. If you'd rather look at rate stats, Jackson posted a .272 peak-adjusted EQA (good for T-9 in the league), and Eiland followed with a .267 EQA, and Ahrens with a .257. These guys did have good statlines - even very good in the case of Jackson - you just need to account for the fact that they were so damn young. This is why we're not hailing David Cooper as the next Travis Snider, despite blowing through Lansing in less than a third of a season.

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#193215) #

Ahrens, Arencibia and Ricky Romero would all be somewhat lower on my list. The statistical markers wouldn't in my view justify their rankings, and the subjective accounts from Jay personnel do have the problem of 1st round "pumping", made more acute by the GM's role in these picks.

I'll pass on any snarky comments about the lack of opportunity given to Joel Collins, and hence his falling prospect status. Instead, I had a thought about Las Vegas. They ought to be the Gamblers. Instead of "Take Me Out to the Ballgame" or "Sweet Caroline" in the late innings, they should play one of two songs. In a blowout, Kenny Rogers' (of course) The Gambler ("you got to know when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em") and in a close game, the Stones' Tumblin' Dice.

SheldonL - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#193216) #

Pistol, Snider slugged .527 in 457 AB's in the Midwest league in 2007. Very impressive.

But my concern is about his .461 slugging percentage at AA. His AAA/MLB combined stats have him very close to .500 but 130ish at-bats haven't convinced me that he's ready for the bigs.

FisherCat - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#193217) #

Are any of you Minor League gurus worried about the effect that playing in the PCL next year will have on our relatively unproven starters? (i.e. R Romero & B Cecil).

Their stats were so so in their brief stint in Syracuse so one has to wonder what the hitter friendly parks might do to those stats now.

Plus, Romero already seems to have a fragile psyche. So I hope a few bad outings in the thin air out there doesn't cause him to regress. Because I feel 2009 is his make or break year and that at the end of '09 he needs to be where Purcey was at the end of '08.

Denoit - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#193218) #

I have a question if anyone can help out. I thought Travis Snider was going to the Arizona Fall League. Did his major league appearance make him ineligeble to play? I checked the scores today, and noticed he wasnt on the roster anymore.

Pistol - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#193219) #

But my concern is about his .461 slugging percentage at AA. His AAA/MLB combined stats have him very close to .500 but 130ish at-bats haven't convinced me that he's ready for the bigs.

My point is you're setting the bar pretty high. That .461 slugging % puts him 7th in the Eastern League. Additionally, one could arguably discount his April when he was coming off the elbow injury and slugged .125 in 32 ABs. Take those ABs out and he slugged .502 in AA.

To me, holding his own in the Majors at 20 tells me more than anything else. It doesn't mean he's ready to take the league by storm, or that he's even necessarily the Jays best option at this point, but I don't think there's any doubt he's a middle of the order impact bat real soon.

Pistol - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#193220) #

Are any of you Minor League gurus worried about the effect that playing in the PCL next year will have on our relatively unproven starters? (i.e. R Romero & B Cecil).

I thought about it with Mills as he's a fly ball pitcher. It wouldn't shock me if the Jays kept certain pitchers at AA to avoid the PCL and just promote them from there. But if a pitcher is so fragile that he can't handle things is he going to be able to handle the majors? It's just a matter of putting the results in context, and hopefully the players realize that as well.

About half of the teams have an affiliate in the PCL and I'm guessing that their pitchers don't turn out worse than pitchers in the IL because of the environment.

Glevin - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#193221) #

"The one you want to play with the most is the one furthest to the right: the peak translations. Those are the ones adjust for age. Justin Jackson, who you are deriding for his less-than-Jay-Bruce statline, created 71 peak-adjusted EQR (equivalent runs) this season, good for fourth in the league. Kevin Ahrens created 60, 2 back of 10th place in the league. If you'd rather look at rate stats, Jackson posted a .272 peak-adjusted EQA (good for T-9 in the league), and Eiland followed with a .267 EQA, and Ahrens with a .257. These guys did have good statlines - even very good in the case of Jackson - you just need to account for the fact that they were so damn young."

I never derided Jackson, I just don't think he's that good a prospect. I don't care about peak-adjusted EQR because it tells me in a very obtuse way, what a player might do, rather than what they have done. (And although I consider myself a stats guy, I hate stats that seem devoid of any real meaning like that) In order to be a good prospect, you have to hit at some point and until either guy actually hits, I see it hard to see how either can be considered anything more than a marginal prospect. Neither Jackson or Ahrens hit very well. (and both were worse in the second half). Also, 19 is young for the midwest league, but it is not exceedingly young. Even among players 19 and younger Jackson and Ahrens were 7th and 9th in OPS respectively. (BTW, Jay Bruce had 16 HRs as a 19-year old in the MWL and struck out 106 times. Jackson and Ahrens have combined for 12 HRs and averaged 144.5 Ks. They're just not near that level of prospect).

Denoit - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#193222) #

I never derided Jackson, I just don't think he's that good a prospect

Im wondering if you have ever watched him play or you are just going by a stat line to make your conclusion. I made a trip to lansing this year because of all the quality players they had there. I find it hard to beleive you would not consider him a quality prospect after watching him play. His tools are undeniable, he has a great arm, he has good speed and a nice looking swing. I find it easy after watching him play to somewhat disregard the stats and see that this player has tremendous potential. He may very well never live up to it, but who are you to say at this momen he won't.

wacker - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#193223) #

what happened to joel collins? he fall off the map?

Mike Green - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#193224) #

Rightly or wrongly, Joel Collins has spent two years in short-season ball. He'll turn 23 next April, and those two facts are why, I am guessing, the Box group decided that he did not merit inclusion on their top 30. Personally, I like him a lot better than someone like Soboleski or Talley, but that's another matter.

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#193225) #

Personally, Collins fell out of consideration for me because of the lack of chances he's had from the Jays... but I have no doubt he could probably be at least a solid back-up in the Majors given that he has solid defence and has shown both an ability to hit for average and power, albeit at different times and at levels where he has been "old for the league."

He might get a chance to play more in Lansing in 2009, along with Talley although DSL catcher Carlos Perez *might* be advanced enough to start the year in full-season ball. That said, he'll be just 18 and acclimatizing to North America, so there is really no reason to rush him. Most of the other catchers in the low minors: Rodriguez, Hurtado, Jimenez, Valdez, House, Turkamani, etc. probably all need more seasoning in Extended Spring Training.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#193226) #

New Jays...
4. David Cooper, 1B

Was on "Prospects to Watch"
8. Scott Campbell, 2B

Climbed vs 2007
7. Justin Jackson, SS - was #15
6. Brad Mills, LHP - was #27
3. JP Arencibia, C - was #13

Stable vs 2007
10. Marc Rzepczynski, LHP
2. Brett Cecil, LHP
1. Travis Snider, OF

Dropped vs 2007
9. Ricky Romero, LHP - was #7
5. Kevin Ahrens, 3B - was #3

So the biggest climb goes to Scott Campbell, from 'watch' to #8. Honourable mention to Brad Mills climbing 21 notches from #27 to #6. Interesting that Ricky Romero dropped despite finally showing hope.

Looking at last years top 10 we see the warning signs about prospects...
#9 Kyle Ginley RHP dropping to #19 despite a slightly lower ERA at a higher level
#8 David Purcey making the majors
#6 John Tolisano 2B dropping to #11 as his stats dropped across the board at a higher level
#5 Yohermyn Chavez OF dropping off the list after 'hitting' 211/272/323
and #4 Robinzon Diaz going elsewhere after flopping in AAA (244/266/336).

Denoit - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#193227) #

Lets compare two players both were 19 in A ball

Player 1

AB-422 R-69 H-116 2B-24 3B-3 HR-8 RBI-50 BB-32 SO-73 BA-.275 OPB-.326 SLG-.403 OPS-.729

Player 2

AB-454 R-74 H-108 2B-26 3B-6 HR-7 RBI-47 BB-62 SO-154 BA-.238 OBP-.340 SLG-.368 OPS-.708

Player 1- Hanley Ramirez

Player 2- Justin Jackson

Hanley may have had a slightly better season but both are comparable, just shows how far he has come since he was 19

Ozzieball - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#193228) #

Justin Jackson is also actually a shortstop, whereas Hanley is a centrefielder being played at short.

Not that you could even reasonably expect Jackson to turn out as Hanley, but hey, dare to dream.

Denoit - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#193229) #

Justin Jackson is also actually a shortstop, whereas Hanley is a centrefielder being played at short.

Not that you could even reasonably expect Jackson to turn out as Hanley, but hey, dare to dream

I don't think a defensive position has anything to do with offensive preformance. Alot happens to some players between the ages of 19 and 23. Personally I agree the chances are next to none that he will. I was just proving a point that you can not jude a 19 year old player on his stats alone and say he is not going to be a good player. Even if Jackson turns out to be half the player Ramirez is, we have a good one.

Ozzieball - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#193230) #

I don't think a defensive position has anything to do with offensive preformance.

It has to do with judging offensive performance, for sure. What is a 'good' line for a SS is different from a 'good' line for a CF. Hanley at short is a lot like putting Vernon at short. Sure he hits amazingly for that position, but he's going to be beyond awful defensively.

Actually maybe that will be the Jays solution next season. Rios in centre, Snider in right, and Vernon at short.

Denoit - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#193231) #

Hanley has played short his entire career, so I really don't know what your talking about?

Dave Rutt - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#193232) #

Justin Jackson is also actually a shortstop, whereas Hanley is a centrefielder being played at short.

Hanley made significant progress with the glove this year, and was actually better than the average shortstop. Not to take away from your point though - comparing the two at age 19 in A ball, Jackson clearly has a huge defensive advantage.

wacker - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#193233) #

mike, I've heard there was a possibilty that "someone like" talley was earmarked for lansing had he not badly sprainrd his elbow during spring training.

Ozzieball - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#193235) #

Hanley has played short his entire career, so I really don't know what your talking about?

http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders1-07.gif

Although hardball times suggests he is no longer comically bad, but I would rather wait for final UZR and Fielding Bible numbers to come out since they tend to be better. The coach can play a player anywhere on the field, but that doesn't mean that player should be playing that position.

hootie110 - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#193237) #

News out of Las Vegas in the link below as the staff was announced today. Viva Las Vegas!

http://lasvegas.51s.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081008&content_id=467974&vkey=news_t400&fext=.jsp&sid=t400

wacker - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#193238) #

not bad 10 of 30 2007 draftees in the top 30

ayjackson - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#193240) #

Personally, I don't consider Scott Richmond a prospect. I do consider Brian Dopirak a prospect though. He's had a lot of injury troubles and who know's what else, but you can't take away what he did as a 20 year old in Lansing.

Subjectively, there's a line between a prospect and a journeyman pro who finally gets a few years as a fringe player in the majors during his late-20s, early-30s. I think for me it's somewhere between Brian Dopirak and Scott Richmond.

John Northey - Wednesday, October 08 2008 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#193241) #

To me a prospect is a guy who isn't proven (ie: hasn't done anything in the majors) and who the Jays have control over for 6 years.

In the end that is what matters most - having those first 6 years of a players career committed to the Jays (if they are willing to pay arbitration rates). If those years start at 20 or 30 it only affects how we project them out - the 20 year old steadily growing in productivity while the 30 year old drops over time.

Richmond could be a high short term gain at a very, very low cost. A different prospect from Cecil who will produce little during the cheap years (most likely) and get better as his cost increases. It changes how you value them, but not if they are a prospect imo.

Rich - Thursday, October 09 2008 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#193244) #

I agree you can't tell a lot by Jackson's stats (yet). Here is Alex Rios at age 19 in A ball:

.257  .290  .332 

Obviously his youth and physical tools (size, arm, speed) still made him a good prospect despite the weak numbers.

Geoff - Friday, October 10 2008 @ 05:44 AM EDT (#193256) #

Big news from that Vegas story in my mind is that Dave LaRoche, father of Adam and Andy, is now the Triple-A pitching coach -- moving up from Double-A.

John Northey - Friday, October 10 2008 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#193263) #

Interesting when coaches move from one level to another. Sometimes it is a promotion, sometimes to keep players comfortable with someone who already knows them, sometimes because a guy has shown a talent with a certain type of player, sometimes just a random thing.

The AA team in 2008 had an ERA of 5.03 vs the league average of 4.24 and across the board the stats look poor. But lets look a bit deeper.

Guys the Jays care about who were in AA...
Brett Cecil: 21, 2.56 ERA, 3.78 K/BB ratio - nice
Robert Ray: 24, 3.19 ERA, 2.67 K/BB ratio
Ricky Romero: 23, 4.97 ERA, 1.42 K/BB ratio
Brad Mills: 23, 1.11 ERA, 2.67 K/BB ratio

Nothing conclusive, but if I ran the Jays those are the types of guys I'd be seeing what effect a coach had on. 3 did well in AA, one poor in AA but did a big jump in AAA shortly after...was it the AA coach or the AAA who had the big effect on Romero or just dumb luck? Same with other guys of course. Interesting none the less.

TamRa - Friday, October 10 2008 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#193265) #

I think RickeyRo needs to be adopted by Doc in the Spring and see if The Master can get into Romero's head the concept of trusting his talent once and for all.

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