So is this a real short term position or a 'Cito Gaston 1989' type one? I bet on real.

Given Beeston will now pick the replacement for Godfrey I suspect it will be a baseball person rather than a politician. Not sure who, but it is a good sign for the franchise as Beeston does know pretty much anyone who is anyone in baseball and should be able to talk even the best into taking the job (see the Roger Clemens signing in the 90's for an example). So the big question is who that is.

I suspect it will be someone flexible on the issue of wearing socks.

Blair  has a very interesting take on Beeston's hiring here in the Globe:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081014.WBbaseball20081014150047/WBStory/WBbaseball/?page=rss&id=RTGAM.20081014.WBbaseball20081014150047


(I'm putting the whole string in because I'm assuming the linking tool hasn't been fixed yet for Firefox. if it has, my apologies.)

The way this is all going I wouldn't be surprised to hear that Paul Godfrey has some sort of serious illness.  It would definitly explain the feeling that "something is going on" that everyone seems to share...

I really don't think that's the case at all. He's left the Jays to pursue his NFL in Toronto dream which is essentially more work.

This new stadium idea is intriguing, but I'm afraid I don't understand. If Beeston is here to get the Jays a new stadium, which I believe the article suggests, does the NFL team move into the Rogers Centre, a stadium that without significant architectural changes can't accomodate the NFL? So then it will cost 400 million for the new baseball stadium and then 100 million or more for the renovation of the RC?

I have to say the whisper of a new stadium sounds like a lot of fun.

What concerns me, after reading Blair's column, is the suggestion that Toronto's two dominant sports groups would engineer some kind of merger or alliance.   I'm not a fan of monopolies, no matter how they are rationalized.  I can't see how it would benefit the fans.   Competition -- even the weak competition that exists for the Toronto fan's dollar -- has got to be better than a cozy monopoly that benefits the owners.  I suppose a monopoly will be justified as something that brings a new sports stadium to Toronto.  We've heard that tune before -- "a new stadium will solve all problems" -- and it was a useful tune for sucking dollars from the Toronto taxpayers for the SkyDome.   Another new stadium project would be another drain on the taxpayers for dubious returns.  I don't believe that a new stadium will lead to a higher payroll for the Jays, for example, and a higher payroll is the main thing that will improve the Jays as a team.   Toronto is not New York, where a larger number of luxury boxes in a new stadium can create a huge new revenue stream.  Count me as very skeptical if Toronto's sporting czars announce some kind of merger or partnership.  It might be good for Godfrey and the NFL and the corporate owners, but I don't see it as good for the Jays on the field.

Toronto sport scene is looking rather homogeneous in the workings of its day-to-day business. I am anticipating a return of Butch Carter to the Raptors soon, or maybe Glen Grunwald as CEO.

Leafs bring back Fletcher. Jays bring back Cito (and friends). Argos bring back Matthews. Jays bring back Beeston. Sounds pretty trendy to me to bring back management. I blame the successful response to Flashback Fridays for all of this.

And do you know what the only time that all those guys were all employed by those teams simultaneously? Around 1997, I believe. I don't remember if that was a particularly good time for football or hockey, but it sure wasn't for baseball.

IIRC, that was one of Flutie's two Grey Cup championships with the Argos, so it was a good time for football. However, it seems like the Don's return may be of a more temporary nature, especially if the Argos fail to win any of their remaining games.

The Jays may be saying hello (again) to Paul Beeston, but they might soon be saying goodbye to a different member of their front office. With possible candidates for Seattle's GM dropping like flies Tony LaCava, who was already rumoured to be one of the favoured candidates going into the process, is quickly emerging as one of the three most likely candidates to be offered the job. It wouldn't suprise me in the least if he is offered the GM job at the end of the interview process.

Many have reported that LaCava's advice has been key in several of the better decisions made by Ricciardi. 

Interesting article by Blair on the emergence of the Rays in 2008:

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081015.wspt_blair16/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

"And even if the Red Sox beat Kazmir tonight and roust some of the ghosts of past ALCS deficits, even if they go on somehow to win this series, this postseason has all been bad, bad, bad news for the Toronto Blue Jays, who have never looked farther away from first place in the AL East than at any time in recent years."

I found myself having similar thoughts as I watched the ALCS. The Rays have an excellent young (and inexpensive) roster with considerable minor-league talent still to arrive. I think the big difference is that players like Kazmir, Shields, Garza and Sonnanstine are no longer potentially very good; they're now proven performers. Definitely not good news for the Jays, whose players are older, more expensive (Wells and Halladay, will get extremely pricey in the next few years), and generally have less upside.

Greenfrog, you and Blair are spot on.  Baseball Prospectus called this years Jays 'the best fourth place team in history' this year and they may be right (someone more historically minded then I would need to examine this). 

Tampa Bay is going to be very, very good, possibly the best, for years to come.  Boston has been the best franchise in the game over the last five years, and has lots of young talent and tons of money.  New York has a much-improved farm system and the money to be a contender EVERY YEAR.  One bad year will not sink this team, nor will a host of bad contracts.  Even Baltimore is improving. 

Were we win the NL, we'd be in the playoffs.  But we aren't, and we don't seem to have a plan other than field the best team we can, and hope the stars align.  It could work, but damn its discouraging to see the best Jays team since the glory years in fourth place, nowhere near the playoffs, and looking like they have the same or worse problems next year. 

That said, it's been a great playoffs so far!  Go Rays!

 

Read on Buster Olney's blog today that Manny Ramirez in seeking a six-year deal?! That's impossible, right? I was thinking he'd get a three-year deal. Maybe I'm mistaken.

Even Baltimore is improving.

I don't agree with this (though I do agree with the Jays' new lot in life being 4th best in the east). The Orioles stink and look to be a stinker for a while to come.

The team offense was above league average in 2008 but that was thanks to some unlikely seasons from Mora (36) and Huff (31). Other key contributors were Roberts (30) and Scott (30). That's four guys likely to be less good in 2009. Two of them, Huff and Roberts, figure to be trade bait this off-season.

Markakis is a young (24) star, no question, and Adam Jones (22) may turn into something.

But aside from these latter two, what else is there, including pitchers, to be terribly optimistic about? I won't pretend to know their organization well. Are there other young players who look like something?

These Orioles look every bit as moribund as the Pirates have looked for the past decade. Same aimless management. Same over-reliance on veteran has beens.

Read on Buster Olney's blog today that Manny Ramirez in seeking a six-year deal?! That's impossible, right? I was thinking he'd get a three-year deal. Maybe I'm mistaken.

It's Scott Boras' job to ask for the moon, even if he knows that Ramirez will most probably get a whole let less. If he floats the 6-year trial balloon, he's hoping that there's at least one GM out there who won't be able to contain himself. If they all come to their senses and offer shorter contracts, so be it.

But it doesn't hurt to ask, especially when doing so costs you nothing.

I seem to recall Boras floating the idea of a 5/$100M contract when Chan Ho Park was a free agent several years ago. It was silly talk, to be sure, but Park did land a 6/$90M contract which certainly seemed silly enough at the time (and turned out to be an unmitigated disaster in retrospect).

Heh. Ramirez can seek anything. What he gets could be something entirely different.

So, 6 years at (I'm guessing) $20 mil per year is the starting point for him. That would mean he'd be signed for his age 37 - 42 seasons. At that pay rate you'd want a 400/600 OBP/Slg player with at least a 1000 OPS if he doesn't reach the 400/600 figures.

Figures via http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/leaders_37_bat.shtml - just adjust teh 37 to get other age records.

Age 37 records...
OBP: many over 400, Bonds at 582 leads
Slg: Just 4 over 600, Bonds at 799 leads
OPS: Just 8 over 1000

Age 38 records...
OBP: many over 400, Bonds at 529 leads
Slg: 3 over 600, 9 over 550, Bonds at 749 leads
OPS: Just 5 over 1000

Age 39 records...
OBP: many over 400, Bonds leads at 609
Slg: 2 over 600, 5 over 550, Bonds leads at 812
OPS: 3 over 1000, 10 over 900

Age 40 records... - over cliff time
OBP: 8 over 400, Eddie Collins leads at 468
Slg: 0 over 550, 5 over 500
OPS: 0 over 1000, 5 between 900 and 925

Age 41 records...
OBP: 8 over 400, Bonds at 454 leads
Slg: 1 over 600, 2 in the 500's, Ted Williams leads at 645
OPS: 3 over 900, Williams #1 at 1.096 Bonds at 0.999 4th is at 835

Age 42 records...
OBP: 3 over 400, 7 over 375, Bonds leads at 480
Slg: 2 over 500, 9 over 400, Bonds at 565 leads
OPS: Bonds over 1000, Anson at 995, 841 or less for the rest just 7 over 800

Anyone signing Manny to a 6 year deal for the bucks he'd demand is basically hoping he is going to hit like Bonds did or like Ted Williams and to stay healthy. Any other option would mean years of paying out $20 million for nothing. A 3 year deal might make sense as ages 37-39 have plenty of guys who kept hitting but anything past that is just paying extra for those first 3 years.

"Even Baltimore is improving.

I don't agree with this (though I do agree with the Jays' new lot in life being 4th best in the east). The Orioles stink and look to be a stinker for a while to come.

The team offense was above league average in 2008 but that was thanks to some unlikely seasons from Mora (36) and Huff (31). Other key contributors were Roberts (30) and Scott (30). That's four guys likely to be less good in 2009. Two of them, Huff and Roberts, figure to be trade bait this off-season.

Markakis is a young (24) star, no question, and Adam Jones (22) may turn into something.

But aside from these latter two, what else is there, including pitchers, to be terribly optimistic about? I won't pretend to know their organization well. Are there other young players who look like something?

These Orioles look every bit as moribund as the Pirates have looked for the past decade. Same aimless management. Same over-reliance on veteran has beens."

Except for the O's having some damn good prospects in the minors. Wieters might be the best prospect. Tillman has a very high upside and has posted performance to match, Matusz has a pretty high ceiling too. Arrieta has looked good. Not to mention that they'll have another high pick and have shown a willingness under MacPhail to consider nothing but talent in the 1st round. Comparing the O's under MacPhail to the Pirates of the last decade is a bit of a joke.

Just noticed that a Sports Illustrated article says that the Jays are viewed as one of 3 teams other than the Dodgers that are interested in Manny's services. The Yankees and Mets are the others with the Orioles a dark horse.

Now, a 3 year deal at $25 mil per might be tempting to both parties - a solid slugger for at least the first 2 years, he'd make more than he would've in Boston, plus a lower pressure environment where he gets to take revenge on Boston directly and keeps hitting the Yankees out of the playoffs.

Could work, but I doubt it as I figure Rogers will be way too cheap to push the payroll to $125 million, especially with the dollar in free fall lately.

Comparing the O's under MacPhail to the Pirates of the last decade is a bit of a joke.

Fair enough. Indicting MacPhail for organizational ineptness that predates him isn't fair. But I'll believe that changes are truly afoot once I see more players in the starting lineup under 30 than over.

Improving is a relative term anyway.  The O's stink, and have stunk for quite some time, but for a fifth place team, they look to have some upside with those prospects and McPhail at the them.  I don't see them as a threat to the Jays, but they aren't total doormats either.  Man, what a tough division.

Now if we could sign Manny, we'd certainly be a bigtime player.  He's EXACTLY what the lineup needs.  But 6 years?  That's absolute insanity - and we have too many big ticket long-term committments as is.

But small ticket tinkering, replacing average with slightly above average, doesn't cut it in this division.  This offseason, it's time to roll the dice.   JP needs to go hard or go home.  I'd rather see some risky moves backfire then some minor tinkering.  If the stars align, we can conentend - otherwise, fourth beckons. 

I would love to see Manny in Toronto, but I don't think he would be enough to put the Jays over the top (assuming AJ walks). The long-term problem is that the team would be adding an aging DH when three of the Jays' best young hitters (Snider, Lind and Cooper) are LF/DH/1B types. The short-term problem is that the team is laden with average-ish players at most positions. With Manny, the Jays would have a logjam at LF/DH--a pleasant logjam, admittedly--without addressing either the positional-player mediocrity or the team's most pressing need for a SS and #2 starter.

Of course, Rogers could decide to significantly up the payroll--say to $140-150M (hey, a fan can dream). Which would allow the team to make a couple of Manny/AJ/Sheets/Teixeira-type moves.

The Jays have been winning some tactical battles (for example, by identifying undervalued players such as Downs, Inglett and Carlson; by improving their drafting; and by securing players like Rios and Halladay to cost-effective contracts), but they're still losing the strategic battle (measured in long-term organizational success) to Tampa Bay, Boston and New York. And strategy is what counts in the long run.

Yeah, tough tough division to be in.

The Rays will be above 500 (most likely) for awhile, thus not doormats and always a threat. Odds are 2009 will be a step back much like 1986 was for the young Jays of that era. Still darn good, but not in the playoffs (most of the time a big jump is followed by a step back).

The Red Sox and Yankees have gobs of money and aren't afraid to use it. The Sox also have a strong farm system while the Yankees have had a few big successes due to no fear on budget for amateur players.

The Orioles have cash, but not as much potential as the Jays for it thanks to Washington being in the region. They also are a few years behind everyone else.

So for the Jays to make it 2009 is a decent shot of a year as the Yankees retool, the Rays should have a hangover, and the Sox ...well... OK, not all stars are aligned. Still, this is much like 2008 and 2007 - a year where the Jays have a potential opening and should try to find that magic part that is missing before the Rays really start spending and the Yankees kid rotation comes through.

So, what to do? Blow a fortune on Manny or Teixeira while being open to trading Lind if Snider is ready? Sign AJ or another starter to deepen the staff? Try to get a solid SS? Chase after something else? Or sit back and hope the kids develop quickly and wait until 2010 or later when the Rays start having to pay out lots of cash to keep their current team together?

In truth the best thing for the Jays would be to press for a move out of the division and/or for an expanded playoff.

I would go as far as to say the Blue Jays have zero chance of getting Manny Ramirez.  J.P. has said on many occasions that he does not deal with Scott Boras clients, and I highly doubt he will go back on that.  Granted, Ricciardi has two years left on his contract and anything is on the table at this point, but I think the Blue Jays value pitching more than anything. 

If a big splash is going to be made, I will make a wild guess that the Jays may be looking at adding Jake Peavy through a trade. The Jays have the pieces in place to pull it off, and I would assume that anyone outside of Travis Snider and Roy Halladay in the organization could be dangled.  There has been talk in San Diego and around baseball (according to the newspaper reports Rotoworld gets) that Peavy would be interested in being moved as the Padres are in a transition phase.  Peavy for Lind, Cecil and Jeroloman/Arencebia might do it.

Maybe its just an extreme shot in the dark, but given the injuries in the Blue Jays rotation and uncertanty regarding A.J. Burnett, this seems like the type of move mighht be looking for. The Jays need to have similar pitching they received in '07 and '08 if they want to contend and the rotation as it stands now (assuming AJ leaves) will struggle immensely to do this. I think J.P. will try to stack the pitching staff by trying to aquire Peavy through trade, and will give Burnett the 2/30 mil extension that is being widely reported. Same sort of deal as the '06 offseason where we went in looking to get Meche and Lilly (or one of the two). Hopefully this offseason turns out a little better in that area.

 

Where/When did JP say that he wouldn't consider Boras Free Agents?  I think I've heard him say that he'll stay away from Boras Draft Picks, not free agents.  (And given that he's signed a Boras Free Agent, I tend to doubt that he said that).

J.P. has said on many occasions that he does not deal with Scott Boras clients

While JP has said he would not use high draft picks on Scott Boras clients, he has no problem going after free agents represented by him. The Jays signed Scott Schoenewis who is represented by Boras.

I think if the Jays actually go after Manny, it'll mean Snider or Lind are on the way out. I read on Rotoworld that Jake Peavy might be on the block, with a Kevin Towers quote actually confirming it, so I could see a scenario where we sign Manny and then trade Snider + a few other prospects for Peavy. I don't think you could possibly sign Manny without trading (probably) Snider or at least Lind for pitching, because 1. He'd be blocking at least one of them for 3-4 years and 2. signing such a big ticket player would mean we were absolutely going for it, so if Snider isn't in the short term plans, bringing back a player like Peavy (Might have to include Cecil as well) would give us the absolute best chance of winning in the next 2-3 years.

I have a hard time seeing the Rays falling back, if only because their starting pitching depth is so strong (Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Sonnanstine, Jackson, Price, Davis...that's an amazing front seven - surely the best in baseball). It's also worth noting that the Rays won the division largely without the help of Baldelli, who now appears to be healthy. Of course, that could be offset by the loss of Crawford. But the team really looks solid.

Is anyone familiar with the Rays' positional prospects (besides Reid Brignac, who still seems like a decent SS prospect)?

If the Padres were trading Peavy, I would expect them to settle on nothing less than Snider being included. That being said, given Peavy age, contractual sitaution, and talent I would expect the Padres to accept nothing less than what Halladay is likely to fetch if the Jays dangled him. So when people are proposing trades for Peavy, they should ask themselves if they would accept the same package for Halladay. If the answer is no, then that's not enough for Peavy.

Parrot I thought the same thing in regards to Halladay-Peavy comparison. Its just a hunch thats all. Its easier to find good hitting as opposed to an arm like Peavy  and judging by J.P.'s past offseason's it just seems like the type of thing he would look to do.

Chuck, Wieters is a great, great prospect, and Markakis is one of the most valuable properties in the game. With Jones, they should be a good core for the next 5 years, and longer if they sign 'em up.  That does not mean, of course, that the Os will find the necessary complementary parts and develop enough pitching over that time, but it's a lot easier to do that than to find players of this caliber.

Just remember with the Rays that many thought Detroit wouldn't fall back after their World Series appearance and since then they've fallen a long, long way down. A couple injuries, a kid or two who regresses, a prospect or two who flops and they're toast (as most would be). The Rays are _very_ dependent on young pitching (all starting pitchers for Tampa this year, even those with just 1 start, are under 27) and one of the oldest rules in baseball is young pitchers will break your heart.

Peavy has a NTC and is keen to remain in the National League and in a city he is comfortable in. Aside from the actual logistics of working out a trade, the team would still have to convince him to waive the clause to come to Toronto, which he has shown no indication he is willing to do.

Also, LaCava's one of the final four candidates for the Seattle job and is probably the slight favourite, according to most sources. This is not good news for the Jays front office.

I'd give up Snider+ for Peavy without thinking twice about it, but it ain't gonna happen. Peavy is not going to waive his NTC to come to Toronto. If he is traded, I'm guessing it will be to a team like the Braves or Cardinals.

If I were a betting man, I'd say Ricciardi will sign Giambi (Oakland ties), trade for Greene (wanted him in the '02 draft IIRC), and either re-sign Burnett or trade Lind for a starter.

Everyone else getting a good exercise on the treadmill? I'm sweating.

I know this is a Jays' discussion site, but shouldn't there be a current playoffs thread? There is some great baseball going on with lots to discuss. Not to mention the fact that the ALCS is showcasing two of our main rivals in the AL East.

Last night's game was unbelievable. Can you imagine being a Rays fan, with your team up 7-0 after 6 in the game that could have sent you to the World Series? Shades of Toronto in 1985 (game 5, anyway), only worse. When Papi hit the HR to make it 7-4, the game started to take on an aura of inevitability - for me, anyway. A classic Fenway comeback (or a classic pre-2008 Rays bullpen implosion, depending on your perspective).

Just remember with the Rays that many thought Detroit wouldn't fall back after their World Series appearance and since then they've fallen a long, long way down. A couple injuries, a kid or two who regresses, a prospect or two who flops and they're toast (as most would be). The Rays are _very_ dependent on young pitching (all starting pitchers for Tampa this year, even those with just 1 start, are under 27) and one of the oldest rules in baseball is young pitchers will break your heart.

Detroit?  That's ancient history, John.  What about Cleveland this year?  Also, even if you thought Colorado was a fluke, I bet nobody predicted terrible years from Tulowitzki, Francis and Corpas.

I think TB is built to last, but you really, truly never know.  Let's see how they respond to last night.

That's true, Mike D.  It's not really the pitching, but in the field where Tampa is vulnerable to injury and unexpected decline.  If the fan base does not respond better than they did this year, there will not be the money to fill holes that arise.

Someone mentioned Baldelli's comeback.  The Rays declined his option earlier this year for 2009.

How nice it must be to play in the NL West. Not only do truly mediocre teams win the division (the Jays were a top 6-8 team in the majors when factoring in scheduling advantages; they are only mediocre in the AL East), but players such as Peavy are overly valued because they pitch against easy competition in the best pitchers park in the majors. Peavy has a career 3.80 ERA on the road and his road ERA has been over 4.00 for 2 of the last 3 years. If Snider/Cecil were traded for Peavy, I'd bet that within 2 years San Diego would looks far better than us. It may rival the Eaton for Young/Gonzalez trade. Peavy has only thrown over 205 innings once in his career and I doubt that a move to the AL East would improve his durability. Luckily the Jays do not seem to be in on Peavy.

As for Manny, if 3/75 is enough to sign him (and I think it may very well be enough) then the Jays could do it without significantly increasing their payroll as long as Ryan/Overbay are moved for prospects; in fact, resigning AJ and signing Manny could happen with only a minor payroll boost. The Jays are going to have a payrol between $110-115 million minimum in 2010 (VW is not accounting for 20% of the payroll). Based on their current trend, I'd expect that the Jays are currently planning on spending around $330 million for payroll between 2009-11 (Viner said that they Jays plan on having 3 year budgets). This does not account for the fact that Beeston has said he is going to ask for a payroll increase. So if the Jays are willing to spend around $105 million in 2009 and around $120 million in 10/11, they can afford Manny/Burnett as long as Ryan/Overbay are moved and Rolen departs after 2010 (Halladay can be resigned to a somewhat backloaded deal as well). They would not have a lot of payroll flexibility without an additional increase, but if the contracts are staggered/backloaded it is possible, and I would suggest that if the Jays simply keep Burnett and sign Manny and move Ryan and Overbay, we'd be a top 5 team in the majors very soon (though it may still be 3rd in our division).