Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Pavano Heading To The Twin Cities

It seems like the Cleveland Indians are giving the Pittsburgh Pirates a run for the Biggest Fire Sale of 2009. They have traded Carl Pavano to Minnesota for a player to be named later. Pavano joins Victor Martinez ,Cliff Lee, Ben Francisco, Ryan Garko, Rafael Betancourt and Mark DeRosa among those who have been traded away from the Tribe this season. Their website slogan, "Are You In The Tribe?", should be changed to "The Tribe Has Spoken!".

As it turns out, the missus and I got to see Pavano's final start as an Indian as we finally paid our first visit to Progressive Field. Pavano leaves Cleveland on a good note by going eight innings during the Tribe's 11-1 rout of the Detroit Tigers last Sunday afternoon. He allowed a run on six hits and a walk but 15 of his 19 outs in play were in the air, including a good share of lineouts. We'll see how that'll play in the Metrodome. Pavano improved to 9-8 but his ERA is still fairly unimpressive at 5.37. Over 125 2/3 innings, his K-BB mark was 82-25 and he has a complete game shutout. He's expected to join the Twins tonight in Motown and he would be line to make his debut this evening if that's what Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire decides to do. Right now, rookie Anthony Swarzak is scheduled to toe the rubber for Minnesota.

As for the Tribe, the team is losing money according to its owner so more moves could very well be made before it's all said and done. Closer Kerry Wood and third baseman Jhonny Peralta could be the next to go this month if they get through waivers.

Posted by #2JBrumfield on Friday, August 07 2009 @ 01:42 PM EDT.

Pavano Heading To The Twin Cities | 94 comments | Create New Account

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Chuck - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#204169) #

Hard to imagine Kerry Wood not making it through waivers as he's owed about $14M for the balance of this year and next. I'm sure the Indians would want nothing for him, just the satisfaction of getting him off their books.

Teams like the Phillies and Yankees (especially if they feel compelled to move Hughes back to the rotation) could use a good Kerry Wood, but boy, that's a lot of scratch for name recognition that may well be passé.

Eyan Logan - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#204170) #

It seems weird that the Indians waited until after the non-waiver trade deadline to move Pavano (and maybe Wood and Peralta). It's not like they were going to sneak into contention with a good first week of August.
It seems like they just made things harder for themselves by waiting until post-July 31 to move these guys.

ramone - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#204171) #

Grag Zaun is now a Ray.

tstaddon - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#204172) #

Good depth move by the Rays. Won't cost them much. Elsewhere, the A's released Jason Giambi (who has an .OPS 30 points higher than Millar, despite playing busted up early in the season). If you took a flier on Dellucci, do you take one on Jason until Travis' August 20 date slides past?

ramone - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#204174) #

Rios has been claimed on waivers, interesting to see if they just let him go for salary relief or not.

Noah - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#204175) #

very interesting decision for JP here as far as Rios goes. Guy sure has potential, but a very heavy contract. Maybe they can work out a trade with the claiming team, that'd be a nice win-win.

Forkball - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#204176) #

Here's the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4384253

The other option is to get a prospect back (as opposed to letting him go or stay). As the article implies, the Mets and Giants seem like they'd be the most likely to want Rios.

My guess is that JP will be fed up enough with Rios that he'll let him go for a C+ prospect, but I have a feeling in the end that's not the right move. But that is a good chunk of change to free up, and Lind and Snider could both be in the OF then (which makes it probably below average in all three spots).

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#204177) #

I bet it's the White Sox...how about Rios for Josh Fields?

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#204178) #

If Rios has full no-trade protection through 2010, I suppose he could veto a waiver claim? I doubt he would to the White Sox, Giants or Mets, but still...let him go, put Snider in RF and sign an impact bat for one year (Carlos Delgado!)

Petey Baseball - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#204179) #

Count me in favor of cutting Rios loose (or trading him for whatever we can get). At 28, he's shown glimpses of all-star caliber but his numbers this year (.315 OBP being the tell-all for me) shows he's lost at the plate and needs a change of scenery. Its a good chunk of money to re-invest in plugging holes for 2010, which seems to be once again where we are headed. It was often painful to watch him struggle so mightily but I will be interested to see what becomes of his career post-Toronto. A new city, a new manager, new teammates and new home ballpark could be just what he needs to fufill his seemingly immense potential.

rpriske - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#204180) #

How much time do they have to decide? Can we assume that if Rios is out of the lineup tonight that he is moving?

Paul D - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#204181) #

The Jays have until Tuesday to decide.

Letting him go for nothing would be insane.

rpriske - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#204182) #

It would...because the ownership would just pocket the money. If they were going to turn it into a new free agency signing that would be one thing, but...

brent - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#204183) #

This is where the coaching staff is so important. If they can't turn him into a great hitter, you have to really consider dumping him rather than having that Wells contract absolutely kill this team. Is Rios a 10 million dollar player next season and 12 million until 2014. I think it would be a mistake to not dump him because carrying him and Wells is too much risk to the long term.

I think this calls for a poll!

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#204184) #

Rios' contract is fine...but in the context of a Blue Jays team on a possible $80 mill payroll with VW on the team, he needs to be cut for cheaper talent. Move him, put Snider in RF and sign a one year DH like Johnson/Delgado, whatever. At this point in time, it doesn't make sense to gamble and pull him from waivers, in my opinion. I think whoever gets him will get a very good deal...but it doesn't work for us...

greenfrog - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#204185) #

Wow, tough call. On the one hand, Rios is still a respectable outfielder. Despite a down year, he's on pace for 18 HR, 88 RBI, 29 SB, and is still a strong outfielder (occasional mental lapses aside). His career line is 285/335/449. His contract really isn't that bad if you consider that he's 28 and can play CF.

However, given the Jays' situation (unlikely to compete in 2010, and probably rebuilding), I would be inclined to let him go, especially if the Jays can get a decent prospect or two in return. The Jays need to build around Lind, Hill, Snider, and the young pitchers, and jettison the mediocre veterans.

The real problem, of course, is Wells, who may end up getting released within the next year or two if he doesn't improve. But I can see the logic behind having one albatross contract (Wells's, which is unmoveable) instead of two (Wells and Rios). I wonder if the Jays have considered simply releasing Wells, taking the massive financial hit, a la BJ Ryan, and installing Rios in centre for the next few years.

dan gordon - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#204186) #

I'd let him go. I think you can get better value for $12 million a year than Rios. If they can make a deal and get a prospect, all the better, but if not, let him go, bring Snider up, and use the $12 million elsewhere.

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#204187) #

Dumping him for nothing is a non-starter. It would be pretty much a fireable offense - except that the only way it would happen is if the suits who would fire him are the ones who required so sever a move.

If he was let go for nothing I'd put money on JP sticking around because clearly he would be a money manager at that point and not a baseball GM

Now, trading him is a viable idea if you get something respectable back in return. It's true that yuor outfield defense wouldtake a big hit - if Overbay were replaced by, for instance, Dopirak you'd be wel on your way to being one of the worst defensive teams.

But good defense hasn't saved us the last couple of years so it wouldn't be stunning to see the Jays get desperate enough to make sacrifices there.

IMO, though, trading him only works if you solve another problem with what you get in return. We don't need more pitching depth.

By the way, I couldn't get the ESPN link to work.

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#204188) #

anyone else noticed who has the higher OPS between Zaun and Barajas this year?

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#204189) #

Not too many at the ballpark yet. Too bad. Showing Game 6 of the 1992 series on the scoreboard. Bottom of the 11th, no one out. Braves have runners on 1st and 3rd....

timpinder - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#204190) #

Maybe if the Jays pull Rios the mystery team will take Wells instead! Seriously though, I wouldn't mind Rios and his salary in CF if Wells in his contract hit the road. However, Wells' contract is just terrible right now with the way he's been playing, and the Jays aren't going to win when almost half of their budget is dedicated to a couple of average outfielders. I think the Jays have to let Rios go, even if they don't get anything other than financial relief back. Snider and Lind can take over full time in LF and RF, Dopirak has played some games in LF in AAA, and Sierra looks like he could be a very good RF in a couple of years. Maybe the Jays could even move Encarnacion to the outfield if his glove continues to be a concern at 3B.

Frank Markotich - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#204192) #

I see this is turning into another "let's see if we can figure out the cheapest way to finish fourth" discussion.

I agree with Paul, who said giving Rios away would be insane. If they do that, there'd better be a plan in place to reinvest the money with the intention of winning.

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#204193) #

Rios is playing tonight...

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#204195) #

If they do that, there'd better be a plan in place to reinvest the money with the intention of winning.

Funny. There is pretty clearly no plan to invest any money to improve the team. Take the Rolen trade. Good in a vaccum. You traded high and picked up a couple of promising arms.... but it makes you worse for 2010, so the plan can't be to contend in 2010.

If they let Rios go for nothing that would be so bad all you could do is laugh. I don't think that is their intention though, if it was why wouldn't they have already just done it?

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#204196) #

I suspect come Tuesday the Jays will have traded Rios for one B prospect. It is possible to lose Rios and improve in 2010 if the money were reinvested...but I agree with the general sentiment that it is unlikely. Rather, JP will be made the scapegoat for all of Rogers' shortcomings as owners (sigh)...

RhyZa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#204197) #

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/8/7/981386/the-future-of-alex-rios

Agree with this.

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#204198) #

I would love to hear how the organization spins things to Halladay.

Didn't Riccardi say last week that by keeping Roy they could still compete in 2010?

WFAN has been talking about a rumor that the claiming team is the Mets. Francesa was speculating that it's the Giants.

Geoff - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#204199) #

In case anyone has missed it, the Beej has mutually pulled the plug with the Cubs. Speculate away if some other team may find a place for him.

Pistol - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#204200) #

If they let Rios go for nothing that would be so bad all you could do is laugh. I don't think that is their intention though, if it was why wouldn't they have already just done it?

Because they have days to do it. In the interim they could attempt to get something in return. They lose nothing and have something to gain by waiting - why not use it?

Letting him go for nothing doesn't look good, but if Rios was a free agent would the Jays even consider signing him to what he's going to be paid for the next 6 years? Of course not. Those kind of contracts aren't handed out these days, either in terms of dollars or years for players like Rios. And if another team signed Rios to that contract now no one would be screaming that's the deal of the century. At best you would say, 'he's might be worth it as a CF, but it's too many years'.

Sometimes punting is a good move. Letting Rios go for nothing might be that move now. It'd be effectively letting him walk as a free agent.

(and I think it's funny that there's people that can't stand Rios and want to get rid of him because he's overpaid, and now that there's a chance to wash your hands of that it'd be a bad move.)

I'm a little curious as to whether a player with a no-trade can block a waiver claim. I'd guess no, but I don't really know.

Gerry - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#204202) #

Alex Rios is having his worst year out of the last four years. Why does everyone believe that this level of performance is the new normal? If JP, or the new GM, has guts they will switch Rios to CF for next season and move Vernon to right and immediately Rios's value goes up.

JP gets criticized for signing players at the peak of their performance, you don't compound that by getting rid of players at a trough in their career.

There is no way that the Jays will let Rios go for nothing.

greenfrog - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#204203) #

Gerry: I hear what you're saying, but what if this *is* the new normal for Rios? His OPS has been in decline over the last four years and is now an alarmingly low 728. Yes, he could bounce back to 800+ OPS levels, but, like Wells, he could also become unmoveable pretty quickly.

I think he's definitely worth a flyer for a team like the Giants or Mets (maybe even the Red Sox) that can afford to absorb the financial loss if he doesn't work out. But the Jays will be crippled by having two bad contracts of this magnitude on the books for the next five years. Rios has tons of athletic ability, but his inability to control the strike zone and his periodic mechanical issues now seem pretty entrenched.

snider - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#204204) #

Is the consensus that Rios is gone one way or another or does anyone think its possible that we pull him back and can't make a deal?

I can't imagine this episode helping Rios' performance as a Jay going forward if he ends up staying. I'm hoping this is the end of a ridiculously frustrating chapter in Jays history.

ramone - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#204205) #

I wouldn't call this an episode, it is very common for players to be put on waivers, it's not out of the norm.

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#204206) #

Maybe punting Rios is a good move. Maybe it's a good idea to field a roster of Vernon Wells and 24 players making the league minimum.

If they wanted to move Rios why didn't they get something done before the trade deadline. How are they possibly going to get more when they have 1 team to negotiate with instead of more then 1 team?

If they just wanted to give Rios away we already know there is one team that would trade nothing for him and take his contract.

I've been eagerly anticipating the Buck Coats era.

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#204208) #

I can't imagine this episode helping Rios' performance as a Jay going forward if he ends up staying.

One HR tonight so far. Perhaps the carrot of getting out of Toronto being dangled in front of his face is the motivation he needs.

brent - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#204209) #

2010:$9.7M, 11:$12M, 12:$12M, 13:$12.5M, 14:$12.5M, 15:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

This is current obligation to Rios. I guess the only question is whether Rios "rebounds" or has established his level of performance. I already commented before that having >40 million tied up in the outfield each season is a mistake. I probably wouldn't dump him for nothing, but a low level B prospect would get it done for me. The contract in and of itself is not really bad; it is Wells' terrible contract that would be driving this. I think the best solution is to boo Wells mercilessly and hope he opts out of his contract just so he can leave.

snider - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#204210) #

One HR tonight so far.

How many plays where he pretends he can't see the ball at the base of the fence and the runner circles the bases?

Pistol - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#204211) #

Is the consensus that Rios is gone one way or another or does anyone think its possible that we pull him back and can't make a deal?

I don't know about others, but I think it's a pretty high chance (over 80%) that Rios goes one way or the other now.

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#204212) #

I wouldn't call this an episode, it is very common for players to be put on waivers, it's not out of the norm.

Exactly. This is utterly routine, everyday business. At some point during the season, they'll ask for waivers on everyone, Roy Halladay and Adam Lind included. What is truly mystifying is how it's being presented as something interesting or significant. As a story. Unless they actually did give him away...

ramone - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#204213) #

To further this point Cano has been put on waivers.

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#204214) #

Normally it wouldn't be a story. Except this franchise spent the last month trying to trade it's best player because they can't afford him.

Looking at the contract, punting might actually be the best move.

How exactly does this team win 75 games next year?

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#204215) #

Agree with this.

So do I.

How is it so many people have forgotten Jason Bay v.2007? How about Robinson Cano, v.2008?

Or is it only jays players who can't possibly revert to career norms?

Oh wait, there's Joe Carter v.1990...but he was a Padre that year so maybe he doesn't count either...

metafour - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#204216) #

Exactly. This is utterly routine, everyday business. At some point during the season, they'll ask for waivers on everyone, Roy Halladay and Adam Lind included. What is truly mystifying is how it's being presented as something interesting or significant. As a story. Unless they actually did give him away...

Uhm, this very much IS a story. Why? Because Rios is a guy we legitimately are looking to move. This isn't the same as the Yankees placing Cano...the Yankees have no reason to move Cano and they wont. Rios? He was on the trade block, he's under-performing big time, he's owed a ton of money on a contract that is going to get bigger and bigger over the next 2 years. This team cant compete with Rios and Wells accounting for nearly 1/3rd of the payroll, because Wells' contract is pretty much unmovable they will DEFINITELY look very hard at moving Rios for financial reasons alone. The fact that he was actually claimed by someone is most definitely news.

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#204217) #

trying to trade it's best player

Yeah, but you have to admit - he wasn't trying very hard.

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#204218) #

MLBTR has quotes suggesting it's not the Mets, Reds or Giants. I repeat: it's gotta be Kenny Williams. Who else would have taken Peavy?

I hope Hunter's injury is really bad and it's the Angels making the claim...and they offer Wood as a PTBNL...since everyone here seems to think Rios is worth so much...let's get something good back then...

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#204219) #

Is the consensus that Rios is gone one way or another or does anyone think its possible that we pull him back and can't make a deal?

No way they just let him go. If they do, you can count on the mother of all fire sales in the off-season and a lineup next year that looks like this:

C - Chavez
1B - Dopirak (or Hinske or some such)
2B - Hill
ss - Sanchez (or something similar)
3B - Crede (or some other cast off)
LF - Coats (or Kotsay or MIchaels or some such)
CF - Wells
RF - Snider
DH - Lind

SP - Marcum, Romero, Cecil, Richmond, Zep
RP - Roenicke, Janssen, Carlson, Castro, Ray, etc

And about 100 losses.

At least then we'd have a definitive answer to what the future holds.

And so would Doc.

But no, I don't think they will just let him go. Just saying IF here.

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#204220) #

Yeah, but you have to admit - he wasn't trying very hard.

Which makes the last month that much more ridiculous. Why go through such a public spectacle if you weren't really going to try and trade him.

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#204221) #

Rios is a guy we legitimately are looking to move.

Well of course. His value will never be lower and we're already platooning two backup infielders in one outfield spot. Of course this is the time to move him.

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#204222) #

sucks on ice that I can't find a video feed for tonight's game - I so wanted to see the guys in the only proper retro uni.

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#204224) #

the only proper retro uni.

It looks great! Looks like.... victory! Good times.

greenfrog - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#204225) #

The Jason Bay comp doesn't make sense to me. Bay has been great *every* year of his major-league career except for 2007 (OPS 746). Every other year his OPS has been between 877 and 1150. So he's had one outlier year over the course of seven seasons and has a career OPS of about 100 points higher than Rios's.

Cano is in some ways a better comp, but (1) at 26, he is younger than Rios, (2) has had only one sub-840 OPS year within the last four (2008), (3) is currently having a good season, and (4) has a more palatable contract (4 years / $30M with club options in 2012 and 2013).

Rios, on the other hand, has been up and down for most of his career. Here are his OPS numbers since making it to the majors: 720, 703, 865, 852, 798, 728. Over the next year or two, he'll be edging past his prime. And he's owed about $60M over the next five years. My guess is that the Jays would like to move him, and are very concerned about the possibility of another Wells-type situation unfolding in Toronto.

metafour - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#204226) #

How is it so many people have forgotten Jason Bay v.2007? How about Robinson Cano, v.2008?

Or is it only jays players who can't possibly revert to career norms?

Oh wait, there's Joe Carter v.1990...but he was a Padre that year so maybe he doesn't count either...

Rios has regressed offensively every single year since his career-year in 2006. This isn't a case of a career .900 OPS hitter who has one bad year, its a case of a guy who struggled for several seasons, put up two years where the "light went on", and then proceeded to drop back down every year since then. How likely is it that Rios just got lucky and pitchers have figured him out? How about the idea that Rios, a guy who has NEVER displayed a "hard work" mentality, has simply decided to pack it in now that he's gotten his big pay day? Rios' effort is pathetic for the most part, I dont remember Jason Bay "struggling" and looking like he didn't give a crap 90% of the time.

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#204227) #

Guess they never heard about League coming out of the dugout.

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#204228) #

I'm the guy who first started the whole League out of the dugout, but tonight... geez, he only threw one pitch in the 7th. How does he not come back?

And he came out in the 8th, and threw his sinker and they hit a bunch of ground balls, just like they're supposed to. A couple of them found a hole (and one deflected off his glove). Ground balls will do that. I know people love them, and not without cause, but you just can't run under them if they're not right at someone. So this is going to happen sometimes. Hazard of the trade.

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#204229) #

I know he had to come back out. He almost got out of the inning without trouble, but he made his bed.

Parker - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#204230) #

Ugh.

Things aren't looking good for our heroes. The tough schedule, a likely drop in production from Hill and Lind, the Rolen trade... if Rios is moved too, this team could struggle to win 75 games. New York and Boston are perrenial contenders, Tampa's young team will continue to improve for a couple more years before everyone becomes too expensive, and with Baltimore finally moving in the right direction, the Blue Jays could be looking up from the cellar for the next three seasons.

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#204231) #

If we can't hit Berken, we won't win this weekend. Short of something very strange, because he sucks and the other two guys are actually pretty good.

In fact, this is our last series against a non-contender until at least Sept 7 and if you count the Twins a conteender then it's the last one before we play the O's again in the last two weeks of the season.

unless we get more than three guys on this team hitting, we might very well end up in last place after all.

It's really quite insane just how bad the offense (outside Hill/Lind/Scutaro and Rolen) have been the last six weeks.

Jim - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#204233) #

So much doom and gloom......

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#204234) #

Since June 26, the Jays have played .303 ball. given the rest of our schedule, I could easily see that continuing unless Wells/Rios/Overbay suddenly remember what it is to hit an occasional baseball.

(Yes, such negativism is off my normal curve)

At our current overall pace, we'd win 76 or 77 games and lose 85 or 86

BUT at our current rate, it's more like 67-95

Still, there's a few upsides to that:

1. a good draft pick (maybe top 5)

2. Finally settling the unanswered questions:
a. will doc stay (no.)
b. Will JP? (no.)
c. Will there be a fire sale? (yes)
d. Will there be a new manager (if there's any sanity)
e. will we have to resign ourselves to the Tampa Bay model (otherwise known as "see you in ten years"? (Quite possibly)

3. No longer having to listen to the constant argument over how badly JP does or doesn't suck

4. Get to see some promising kids play in a situation where you don't have to worry if you lose

Chuck - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#204235) #

Earlier this season, I was surprised to learn that Chris Woodward was still in baseball. Now I see he's been moved to the Red Sox.

Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#204236) #

Selling low makes me unhappy. I am guessing though that nothing happens.

TamRa - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#204237) #

Olney suggests it's the White Sox.

Here's a proposition:

Rios + Encarnacion for Ramirez + Fields

:D

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#204238) #

I am guessing though that nothing happens.

The real story is how it leaked out. That Rios was put on waivers means nothing, nothing, nothing. Adam Lind and Travis Snider have almost certainly been put on waivers. This is what every responsible GM does during the course of a season. It is routine business, it's practically housekeeping. It's done automatically.

But waiver wire transactions are still supposed to be confidential. This was deliberately leaked. One assumes that someone who was disappointed at not being able to land Halladay for a bucket of used baseballs informed some reporter who was likewise disappointed at not being able to cover the Big Trade he had already assured the world was certain to happen, despite everything the Toronto GM was actually saying.

Magpie - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#204239) #

at our current rate, it's more like 67-95

Making sense of their current rate is a mug's game. Since July 1, the team has gone 9-18. In those 27 games, they've scored 128 runs (4.74 per game) and allowed 131 runs (4.85) per game. It's hard to play .333 ball when you do that, but they've found a way.

Using a couple of backup infielders in one of the corner outfield positions isn't helping. Which bothers me much more than Millar's occasional appearances - this goes on every day.

greenfrog - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#204240) #

Aren't there usually media reports every August about this or that player who cleared waivers? Or is it just the actual waiver claims that are normally kept confidential?

Jays2010 - Friday, August 07 2009 @ 11:54 PM EDT (#204241) #

Not that anything is confirmed...but I KNEW it was Kenny Williams...the only GM in the league with the sack to take on this kind of deal right after taking on Peavy's. Rios for Fields (as I suggested like 50 posts ago)? Why not - I don't see the big deal here with "selling low". At least Rios can be sold (unlike Vernon). If Rios declines further or has another underwhelming year, he officially becomes untradable (without eating money) as well.

It's not like if Rios plays a little better we can get Lincecum. Nobody is giving 5 year contracts out to players like Rios at $12 million/yr. Even though I think it makes sense as a gamble for the White Sox, the economy is different. Suck it up and try something else. Snider in RF and, for example, Nick Johnson as DH is a massive upgrade over the RF and DH production we've had this year (or at least I would have to assume it would be). And Sierra may be ready by 2012 and Halladay may fetch a RF like Brown/Taylor...this opens up a spot.

I don't know why people acknowledge that it is a sell low move but suggest that "the Jays better get at least a B prospect". That is what Brian Tallet brings in return (or Matt Stairs). Either you bank on Rios' upside or you admit that it makes sense at this juncture to simply rid yourself of the contract. Trying to get "something" marginal (like Fields) likely won't make any difference...Rios is still being traded at the bottom of his value regardless.

greenfrog - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 12:02 AM EDT (#204242) #

Yes: if I were Ruiz, I would be really annoyed. In 112 games, he's hit 324/396/593 with 43 doubles, 25 HR and 105 RBI. His home and away splits are nearly identical. And we all know about Dopirak (314/369/572) at AA/AAA this year.

So, instead of playing Lind in LF and Ruiz or Dopirak at DH, the Jays have opted for Inglett/Lind, Bautista/Lind, or Bautista (LF), Lind (DH) and Millar (1B).

JP has talked a lot in recent years about creating competition at various positions to prevent complacency. Apparently the organization is no longer operating on a merit-based system.

TamRa - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 12:15 AM EDT (#204243) #

Using a couple of backup infielders in one of the corner outfield positions isn't helping. Which bothers me much more than Millar's occasional appearances - this goes on every day.

which is the one thing that most mystifies me (and, b the way, the one thing that makes me most sympathetic to those who hate JP):

Once you know you are out, like we have been since the break and ditto last year, then WHY do you continue to carry players like Millar, Bautista, Barajas and Wilkerson et al last year?

Is it POSSIBLE for Dopirak to give you LES than Millar? nope.

is it POSSIBLE for Ruiz or Coats even Kevin Howard to hit worse that Bautista has the last 2+ months? I seriously doubt it.

And that said, not long ago Bautista's overall line created the ILLUSION he could be helpful off some contenders bench.

Right now Overbay still has the illusion he's having a good year, even though for the last six weeks he's sucked on ice. so take advantage of that. If the kids DON'T hit then go out and sign Johnson or even see what Branyan costs in the off-season.

The thing that pisses me off is the inertia. I'm not worried NEARLY as much that we can't move Wells deal as I am about the paralysis.

As far as Rios goes, I DON'T think we should sell low - the Rolen example mentioned above is relevant here. rios, even if we'd be better off spending his money elsewhere, is not the key factor - the key facotr is how many at bats we give away on useless hitters that any fool can see are useless.

Between Barajas, which you could argue that carrying a no-hitter catcher is pretty common, and the assortment of stiff who are filling Snider's unused at bats, we have two totally dead spots in the lineup every night (although Chavez has been exceeding expectations in his rare at bats lately) - and three when a LHP is on the mound for the opposition.

what is worse for the team? that rios and Wells hit 100 points in OPS too low for their skills, or that we send - essentially - three John McDonalds to the plate so often?

greenfrog - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#204244) #

I'm guessing it's not so much paralysis as it is parsimony. JP may well be under orders not to spend a penny more than he has to. The Jays have to pay Millar no matter what, and damned if they aren't going to ride him into the ground, even if he achieves the dubious honour of being outclassed by that many-headed monster from last year, Shannon Mencherson.

Jays2010 - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#204246) #

Perhaps Rios can land Jordan Danks...he is having a nice first full professional season, though he turned 23 a few hours ago...still, he has a decent chance to start in AAA next year and plays CF.

Brent Lillibridge is a utility middle infielder type that was once well-regarded...perhaps Johnny Mac can finally be DFA'd.

Spifficus - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 01:20 AM EDT (#204247) #

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

Rios still has value beyond his contract. We could have sold Halladay for Kool Aid at pennies a glass, but didn't. Is there any reason to expect the firesale to start now?

We've already cleared salary for next year. Unless actual talent comes back (not someone that's a #30 prospect in another teams' system), the Rios waiver claim is the biggest non-news so far this August.

Jim - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#204249) #

I don't see how Chicago takes on that money.

They have 30 million coming off the payroll in Thome, Contreras and Dotel but they already spent half of that on Peavy. They have Quentin and Danks they need to pay in arbitration for the first time. Rios would take away all their offseason flexibility.

I wouldn't be suprised if it's the Yankees. They have Nady, Damon and Matsui coming off the payroll at a total of 32.5 million.

Rios gives them flexibility in the outfield and allows them to break in Austin Jackson slowly.

Jim - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#204250) #

We've already cleared salary for next year.

Not enough though if the payroll is going to be the same.

Halladay, Ryan, EE, Overbay, Hill, Wells & Rios is 70 Million.

We'll make it easy and call 4 pitchers around the minimum for the rest of the rotation and call that 2 million.

Call the bullpen 5 million for 7 pitchers.

Snider and Lind for a million.

That's 80 million and the team doesn't have any catchers, shortstops or a bench. Bullpens are a crapshoot in general. Try building one on 5 million dollars. They have spent over 10 million on the bullpen this year (outside of Ryan).

If they go into the offseason with this payroll situation they are going to be screwed on Halladay. He's going to want out and every GM in the league is going to see that JPs leverage is falling as time goes by and he has no flexibility to even put together a roster.

Paul D - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#204252) #

Here's a quote from JP:

“It’s a lousy process and it’s really disappointing that any (names) would get leaked. It’s really unprofessional,” he said. “We place everybody on waivers. ... It’s just a normal process from (Aug. 1) on. Everybody in baseball does it. It’s baseball 101.”

Ducey - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#204254) #

The sky may be falling in Jays land but it has nothing to do with Rios being put on waivers.

In fact, if he had cleared waivers this would make him MORE likely to be traded than had someone put in a claim. This is likely some team blocking what they see as a potential claim to a rival.

ayjackson - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#204256) #

Do we have a CF in the system more advanced than Brisker/Eiland/Wilson? Rios has to be our CF in years to come, because Vernon will be unbearable there in another year or two (for some, that threshold has been crossed). Rios represents good value as a CF, provided his good coverage their isn't an illusion. Wells is and will be the problem. Hopefully we can milk a few more .800 OPS seasons out of him in LF and Snider will compensate with above average OF production in right.

metafour - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#204257) #

This is likely some team blocking what they see as a potential claim to a rival.

Who's going to be stupid enough to risk having a $58.7 million dollar contract potentially dumped on them JUST to block a rival from potentially making a claim? Especially when that near $60-million is the contract of Alex Rios.

SK in NJ - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#204258) #

I would dump Rios' contract for nothing. He is a solid player, but he has declined in each of the last four seasons and now there are questions about his work ethic/motivation. His peak wasn't great either (.865 OPS). Yes, this would be selling low which I cannot stand, but in this case if the team can effectively wash their hands of his entire contract, it would be worth it in the long run. If Wells was not on this team then keeping Rios would be a no brainer, but having Wells and Rios making some $35+ million combined per year over the next 5 years is not a smart investment. Wells cannot be moved, Rios can. Problem solved.

Of course, whether the money will be pocketed by ownership or reinvested onto the team will be the issue. Snider can replace Rios, but the Jays have a lot more holes that will need to be filled next season.

Spifficus - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#204259) #

So what's next? Dump Hill or Roy as well? I hear they have big contracts, talent be damned.

There are plenty of options and plenty of time to trim salary for next year. We don't need to do it all right now.

Helpmates - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#204260) #

“It’s a lousy process and it’s really disappointing that any (names) would get leaked. It’s really unprofessional,” he said.

Considering how he conducted himself during the whole Halladay saga, Ricciardi has a lot of nerve calling into question anyone's professionalism. He possesses the soul of a used-car salesman.

TamRa - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#204261) #

Who's going to be stupid enough to risk having a $58.7 million dollar contract potentially dumped on them JUST to block a rival from potentially making a claim? Especially when that near $60-million is the contract of Alex Rios.

Someone with an decidedly more rational view of Rios' value than you have.

TamRa - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#204262) #

Considering how he conducted himself during the whole Halladay saga, Ricciardi has a lot of nerve calling into question anyone's professionalism. He possesses the soul of a used-car salesman.

Or a sportswriter

metafour - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#204264) #

Someone with an decidedly more rational view of Rios' value than you have.

Clearly...its not like everyone is shocked that someone actually claimed Rios...whats that? They are?

Please enlighten me on this value of a mental-midget who has a terrible work ethic and has exactly 2 seasons of performance justifying his contract. No surprise those two seasons came after the heat was put on him and it was sink or swim time for Rios. He gets the big contract and he's back to seriously under-performing, complete with multiple ridiculous baserunning mistakes.

You want a gem? Here you go:

One scout tracking the Blue Jays was disgusted by the lack of hustle exhibited by outfielder Alex Rios (notes). “He never got to first base under 4.7 [seconds],” the scout said

Heres your breakdown on scouting times from home to first base for a RH hitter:

Above Average: 4.2
Average: 4.3
Below-Average: 4.4
Very Below Average: 4.5

Spifficus - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#204266) #

So he's lazy (or looks lazy). So what? I don't care how a player looks if he's performing, and Rios has performed 3 of the past 4 years. Would it be nice for him to run quicker down the line? Definately. Would I trade him just because of this? No.

As for this motivation crap, what motivated him in 2007? 2008? 2009 (and no, it wasn't just the Cito effect, unless he was also hanging around the team in April)? Face it - he's a good player having a sub-par year. He isn't Vernon Wells, and shouldn't be used as a proxy for him.

Magpie - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#204267) #

Or a sportswriter

Now, that's harsh...

metafour - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#204271) #

He isn't Vernon Wells, and shouldn't be used as a proxy for him.

You're right; he isn't Vernon Wells because Wells in his best two seasons was easily better than Rios in his best two seasons.

In Vernon Wells' 8 full seasons (counting this year) he has 5 in which he posted an OPS+ over 100.
In Alex Rios' 6 full seasons he has 3 in which he posted an OPS+ over 100.

You cant play it both ways (Wells sucks, Rios is great)...they're both equally disappointing, the only difference being that Wells' contract is significantly worse and he's older thus a worse fielder at this point.

brent - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#204273) #

Does anyone have footage of Rios from the 2006 and 2007 seasons?

I think this kind of decision comes down to scouting. Forget what Rios has done or not done, what do the scouts say going forward? This contract will take him all the way to his age 33 or 34 season. You have to be confident that he will be successful for at least the next three years. I know I wouldn't say that.

Spifficus - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#204275) #

The only difference between Rios this year and the previous 3 years is about 30-40 points of BABIP.

Parker - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#204276) #

As for this motivation crap, what motivated him in 2007? 2008? 2009 (and no, it wasn't just the Cito effect, unless he was also hanging around the team in April)?

Well, let's see. His 2006 breakout season came in his final season before arbitration. In 2007, when he was eligible for another raise through arbitration, he improved a little more. After he signed that huge extension at the start of the 2008 season, his performance regressed significantly. This year, he's been just plain bad.

Coincidence?

For what it's worth, here's Alex's line since Cito took over: .282/.327/.470 in 766 AB. 86 EBH, 122 SO, 47 BB, 36 SB, 6 CS.

Other than the on-base, which Rios has never excelled at, those numbers actually look pretty good but they're mostly from last year. He posted an .878 OPS after Cito took over in 2008, but only .734 so far this season.

Spifficus - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#204281) #

but he also posted a pretty good April in 2008 (.306/.386/.449). Really, he was only done in by a very bad May, just like the rest of the offence. This wasn't a Cito Miracle. Or, even if it is, Cito then deserves the blame now. One or the other.

Look, he's never looked particularly, umm, motivated. Now, because he's having an off year, everyone really wants to crap on him for it (as opposed to the usual layer of crap... which was probably not unjustified given his occasionally frustrating actions). Fine. Crap away. But DON'T give away a valuable asset just because you're pissy. He is someone who can play at least average defence in CF with at least an .800 OPS. That has a lot of value.

TamRa - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#204282) #

Clearly...its not like everyone is shocked that someone actually claimed Rios...whats that? They are?

check your hearing - or your eyesight (or both) cause, they're not.

Mick Doherty - Saturday, August 08 2009 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#204284) #

Carl Pavano -- the original subject of this thread! -- seven shutout frames in picking up the win in his Twinkie debut tonight?

Who is this guy? My family's from Ohio and New York so I've been halfheartedly following him since he left the Fish, and that guy is not this guy!

Jim - Sunday, August 09 2009 @ 07:49 AM EDT (#204286) #

I've been 'following' Pavano since we played 10-11 year old little league all-stars together in 1985. He was good enough to make the team as a 9 year old.

His ratios weren't as bad as his ERA in Cleveland and the ERA was inflated some because of the April 9 disaster; 9 runs in an inning.

He's given up a ton of home runs but his k/bb ratio going into last night was 3.63, far and away a career high.

#2JBrumfield - Monday, August 10 2009 @ 12:23 AM EDT (#204316) #

Carl Pavano -- the original subject of this thread! -- seven shutout frames in picking up the win in his Twinkie debut tonight?

When I first check the thread to see 90-plus comments, I thought that's a lot of reaction to Pavano. Or, I thought people were blown away by my photograph of him and were calling me the next Aaron Reynolds, aka, Named For Hank. Oh well. For anyone revisiting the thread, I did crop the same photo so you're not hallucinating! :D

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