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In perhaps the most analyzed deal in recent memory, the Toronto Blue Jays dealt former Cy Young award winner - and life-long Jays hurler - Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies in a set of trades that involved four teams. With the dust now settling, the club has received back three solid prospects: Right-handed starter Kyle Drabek, corner infielder Brett Wallace, and catcher Travis D'Arnaud.

You may or may not have seen my analysis of the trade at www.fangraphs.com. If not, feel free to click the link. I broke down the deal before the news that outfielder Michael Taylor would be flipped to Oakland for Wallace, so I'll break down Wallace below. As well, I thought I'd take a look at how the impending prospects impact those already in the system, as well as when/where the new players will fit in at the MLB level.

Wallace was originally drafted by the Jays out of high school in the 42th round of the 2006 draft. The club made a run at signing him, but he was a second-to-fourth round talent at the time and he had slipped in the draft due to signability concerns thanks to a strong commitment to Arizona State University. The club had interest in Wallace again in '08, but the Cardinals nabbed him with the 13th overall pick and Toronto settled for first baseman David Cooper with the 17th selection.

Wallace has shown the ability to hit .300 over the past two seasons in the minors. He also hits southpaws extremely well, so there is no threat of a platoon. His career line against left-handers is .357/.441/.476, compared to his numbers against right-handers at .284/.359/.478. There have been some questions about just how much home-run power he possesses, but the left-handed hitter slugged 20 homers in '09 while playing for three clubs (one double-A, two triple-A). He was one of the key pieces of the mid-season trade of Matt Holliday from St. Louis to Oakland.

Defensively, Wallace has seen a lot of time at third base where he shows good hands and he converts almost everything he gets to. Unfortunately, his range is limited by a thick lower half, which will necessitate a move to first base. Oakland could afford to move Wallace for the more athletic Taylor due to the presence of first base prospect Chris Carter, who has massive power potential, and the organization's strong need for outfield depth.

Wallace should be ready to contribute in Toronto by mid-to-late 2010, depending on when incumbent first baseman Lyle Overbay packs his bags. The prospect has the potential to be an impact hitter at the MLB level; he just needs to get a little more loft in his swing (52.8% career ground-ball rate).

Here is how the first base depth looks in the system now:
1. Brett Wallace (AAA)
2. Brian Dopirak (AAA)
3. David Cooper (AA)
4. Michael McDade (A-)
5. Sean Ochinko (SS)

Wallace is definitely the cream of the crop, although Dopirak and Cooper definitely have potential, as well. Randy Ruiz is also still in the picture, but he's limited defensively and basically projects as a designated hitter. McDade is still a ways away from the Majors so he has plenty of time to develop. Ochinko, an '09 draft pick, has seen time behind the dish but he's struggled defensively and should move to first base full time in the near future.

Here is the new catching depth in the system:
1. J.P. Arencibia (AAA)
2. Travis D'Arnaud (A-)
3. Carlos Perez (R)
4. Brian Jeroloman (AA)
5. A.J. Jimenez (A-)

The signings of both John Buck and Ramon Castro, MLB veteran backstops, will buy all the minor-league catchers some more development time. After a breakout '08 season, Arencibia struggled mightily thanks to his approach at the plate (lack of patience... walk rate of 5.3%). He still has a ton of potential with above-average power and improved defensive skills, but he needs to make some adjustments. Hopefully the addition of D'Arnaud into the system will serve as a wake-up call. Perez is loaded with potential, but he's probably about four years away. Jeroloman is a gifted defensive catcher, but he took two steps backward in '09 with a significant offensive regression. D'Arnaud should be ready to challenge Arencibia for playing time in late 2011 or 2012.

The top (starting) pitching prospects:
1. Kyle Drabek, RHP (AA)
2. Zach Stewart, RHP (AAA)
3. Henderson Alvarez, RHP (A-)
4. Brad Mills, LHP (AAA)
5. Luis Perez, LHP (AA)

The injury woes at the MLB level in '09 significantly reduced the quantity and quality of pitching prospects. The grads included: Ricky Romero, Marc Rzepczynski, Scott Richmond, and Brett Cecil. Drabek immediately jumps to the top of the Jays' depth chart, followed by another import: Stewart, who could also end up in the bullpen. Alvarez has a nice combination of fastball velo and ground-ball rate, but he's about three to four years away from the Majors. Both Mills and Perez are left-handers with back-of-the-rotation potential. Drabek, who has the ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 starter should be ready to help out at the MLB level in the second half of 2010, or early 2011.

Baseball America recently released its Top 10 prospect list with Stewart at No. 1. Both Drabek (No. 1) and Wallace (No. 2) should move ahead of Stewart (No. 3) now.

The Jays' Holiday Stocking Stuffed with Prospects | 118 comments | Create New Account
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Helpmates - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 10:50 AM EST (#209810) #

Initially, I wasn't thrilled with the Taylor-for-Wallace transaction...but upon further reflection, it's dawned on me that Wallace wields the superior lumber between the two.  We can get hung up on "who's going to play first, who's going to DH" scenarios, but those things have a way of working themselves out. 

Aside from that...I would've preferred to get a fourth guy (Anthony Gose, perhaps)...but, overall, I think it's a pretty good haul for the Jays. 

rpriske - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 10:52 AM EST (#209811) #
New minor league addition: Lance Broadway, recently of the Mets.
China fan - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:10 AM EST (#209814) #
What happened to Lance Broadway?  As recently as 2008 he was the 2nd-ranked prospect in the White Sox organization.  He had an excellent season at the AA level at age 22, got promoted to AAA and began to tail off.  Then the Sox dumped him to the Mets, and the Mets apparently released him.  He's 26 years old, too old to be a proper prospect.  Maybe the Jays can somehow get him to recover his form of three years ago, but it looks like a long shot.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:27 AM EST (#209817) #
It worked with Dopirak...
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:31 AM EST (#209818) #
I'd try moving Broadway to the pen.  Even when he succeeded at double A, it was with a mediocre K rate and a pretty high BABIP.  I'd bet that his future (if he has one in the bigs) is in middle relief.
Dewey - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:46 AM EST (#209819) #
Lance Broadway!  What a name to conjure with.  I think I remember him from old Joe Palooka comics.  Or was it Mary Worth?  Lance Broadway.
Helpmates - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:50 AM EST (#209820) #
Since the organization seems to be in a phase of collecting first base/DH-types, they should go after Larry Broadway, too.
Matthew E - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 12:06 PM EST (#209821) #
Every town I go, there's a pitcher. Name of the pitcher? Broadway pitcher.
Mick Doherty - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 12:44 PM EST (#209825) #
Nice job, Marc. After the last two days of flooded threads, this is excellent context in a manageable format and length. Two separate 100+ comment threads, while fun and worthwhile, are not so much "organized" or "manageable"!
jgadfly - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 12:55 PM EST (#209827) #
Marc ... Do you see any similarities between AA's approach/philosophy in building a competitive team and the Expos of the early 90's ?   'Who' or 'what' did the Expos look for when drafting ?   Why was Montreal so good at producing A+ prospects ... scouting or teaching ?  What key pieces took the Expos to the top and how does the talent base of the Jays' system compare with that of the 1990's Expos. I would imagine that with AA growing up in that 'milieu' his approach cannot but be influenced by the operations of les Expo .
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:00 PM EST (#209829) #
Marc, a question.

On Taylor and Wallace - I understand there are those who are concerned about Taylor breaking down being a diabetic and being a 6'6" 260 pound outfielder running all day on the Jays artificial cement - er - turf. I can see why the Jays might think he'll break down - and he is turning 24.

To my jaundiced eye, Wallace seems very similar to Snider in build and athleticism. Both are much better athletes than their body type would indicate. However, with Lind and Snider and even Ruiz and Dopriak we have a MULTITUDE of possible 1st base types but ZERO 3rd base types with upside. SURELY - the Jays must THINK that Butter can work with Brett to keep him as an at least OK 3rd baseman defensively? As a 3rd baseman - his total offensive and defensive package is MUCH MORE valuable to the Jays than it is at 1st, n'est pas?

IF - he can only play first - is he still a better pick for us than Taylor - who even when his legs fall off will be able to play first - n'est pas (encore)?

I await your response with baited breath - this time for bait I'm using previously blessed Mackerel - or in the vernacular - Holy Mackerel!


Jdog - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:01 PM EST (#209830) #
Elliot is reporting that a player involved in the trade has flunked his physical.....not sure who, not sure what effect it will have on the trade. Just one more twist.
christaylor - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:14 PM EST (#209832) #
More from Elliott: "Halladay and Lee passed (they stuided), it's a minor leaguer who failed his physical."
Moe - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:16 PM EST (#209833) #
IF - he can only play first - is he still a better pick for us than Taylor - who even when his legs fall off will be able to play first - n'est pas (encore)?

With Snider, Lind and Wallace the Jays really have 3 guys for the future for LF/1B/DH. If Dopirak works out 4 for 3 positions. That's not the type of logjam that should stop you from making a trade if you really believe one player is better than another. If all four play like Lind did last year, you can easily move one of them. If not, which is much more likely, you are set at three positions for a while and can worry about 3B and CF/RF later.

So, the positional argument against Wallace is just silly. And at this point, I (still) trust AA and the Jays scouts to have made the right call when assessing the long-run potential of Taylor.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:17 PM EST (#209835) #
jgadfly, I don't know if we can compare AA's approach to the Montreal philosophy due to the fact that the Expos developed the talent through within via the draft and international signings, with the exception of a few players like Pedro Martinez (a great trade from the Dodgers). Toronto has brought in the bulk of its talent through trades recently, and I was glancing through the top picks in the last three Jays drafts and it's not overly pretty. It's going to be some time before we see what AA's true approach/style is... I like some of his under-the-radar moves so far... Broadway was a nice flyer and could be a solid reliever. Alex Gonzalez and John Buck were both good value signings... He shored up the middle infield depth with Hoffpauir and McCoy. Gathright was another smart move. He's shoring up the depth with solid depth players and resist the urge to burn it all down like J.P. did when he first started. Obviously the Halladay deal is a big one, but it was set in motion before he took the helm.

mylegacy, if you go to google pics and google "brett wallace" you'll see just how thick his lower half is... The big concern with his fielding is the range... I'm not sure Butterfield can help much in that area, with the possible exception of getting his reaction time up, perhaps? The hands are pretty good, and he gets himself into a pretty good throwing position with a strong enough arm. If Wallace really wants to stick at third, he may just have to really focus on conditioning his lower half. It looks like his middle is softening up a little bit too, compared to his college and prep days.

I wasn't a huge fan of Taylor as the second player in the deal; I like Wallace better overall, but Taylor would have been an interesting player to have, as well. But, I know Oakland coveted Wallace, so I'm curious why they were so quick to deal him to Toronto?



Mike D - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:25 PM EST (#209837) #
This is speculation on speculation here, but...If it's Drabek who failed the physical, what next?  Flipping the Jays Aumont for Drabek won't -- or at least definitely shouldn't -- cut it. 
Moe - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:28 PM EST (#209839) #
Maybe some more $$$s and get Brown?


christaylor - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:30 PM EST (#209840) #
http://twitter.com/ShiDavidi

Apparently Aumont passed. Given the two trades are relatively independent, I'm guessing that someone from PHI-TOR failed.
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:42 PM EST (#209841) #

Taylor ended his winter season early because of shoulder problems - if it's him, how about Tornonto sending Jeroloman to Phila. and Phila. sending

us Brown. 

John Northey - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 01:52 PM EST (#209842) #
Better to know now than later.  Thus AA passes the test Gord Ash failed.  Lets see if he can get something better for the guy who failed his physical.
Moe - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:01 PM EST (#209843) #
You wonder who is under more pressure here, the Phillies or the Jays. Boston is out of the market. Maybe the Angels are now more desperate.

I'd love if it were Taylor and we get Brown even if we have to send someone else to Philly.



RhyZa - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:04 PM EST (#209844) #
So from a Jays perspective if any one of the Philly prospects failed, here are the possibilities?

a) Drabek failed, take him with injury or replace him for Happ, exchange Brown for Taylor.  Keep Brown, forget Wallace.

b) Taylor failed, replace Brown with Taylor.  Keep Brown, forget Wallace.

c) D'arnaud failed.  Get lesser prospect, decrease money sent to Philly.




RhyZa - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:10 PM EST (#209845) #
I meant to phrase that more like a question.

Also, since Roy negotiated a contract with Philly and Philly traded players (who didn't really ask or want to be traded), I think the Jays have the leverage here.  The other possibility (not sure how realistic it is) if somehow Philly get cold feet with the negative media attention and try to reneg or restructure based on this.

Rich - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:17 PM EST (#209846) #
But, I know Oakland coveted Wallace, so I'm curious why they were so quick to deal him to Toronto?

This is part of what concerns me about the Taylor - Wallace deal.  The A's have no real viable 3B yet have chosen to deal Wallace anyway.  The reports on his defence were not good when he was drafted.  The Jays have focused a lot on building a solid defensive club and I just can't imagine that they see Wallace having a future at third.  And if that's the case I'd rather have Taylor, at least based on what I know of the two players.
Thomas - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:18 PM EST (#209847) #
Bastian says it's one of the Philly prospects or Wallace who failed. The three Seattle players all passed. He also says, not surprisingly, the deal won't be derailed by this development.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:19 PM EST (#209848) #
According to Bastian, Taylor ended his season because of elbow problems, not shoulder. That might be the sort of thing that could fail a physical, but teams would be willing to overlook.
Moe - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:31 PM EST (#209849) #
This is part of what concerns me about the Taylor - Wallace deal.  The A's have no real viable 3B yet have chosen to deal Wallace anyway.

I read BB fell in love with Taylor when Philly and the A's were discussing a possible trade involving Holliday. He then got obsessed with him and the Jays knew that and figured that getting Taylor was their chance of getting Wallace (whom they wanted for a long time).

I don't think this is a knock against Wallace, it just AA and BB getting their respective man crush.  If they are both comfortable with it, I'm fine. I think Wallace has the higher upside, but also more downside (if his bad doesn't quite make it, he is probably useless). I think it's a gamble worth taking. Having three big bats (Lind, Snider, Wallace) would be awesome and harder to get down the road then an another outfielder.



Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:39 PM EST (#209850) #
Blair has just tweeted, twittered or WTF that a baseball source has told him the failed physical story is total BS. Lets hope he's right.
China fan - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:39 PM EST (#209851) #
Jeff Blair is now quoting a baseball source who denies the whole failed-medical rumor.   Calls it completely false.
Dave Rutt - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:40 PM EST (#209853) #
Marc, you mentioned that Wallace's defensive struggles are primarily based on his range, not his handling. Do you think he could be an above-average first baseman?
ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:47 PM EST (#209854) #
The other possibility (not sure how realistic it is) if somehow Philly get cold feet with the negative media attention and try to reneg or restructure based on this.

This is not only extremely unlikely, it makes no sense. Assuming a Philly minor leaguer failed the physical, it's Toronto, not Philadelphia, that can deep six a deal on that basis.
There's a lot of pressure on AA now. He's the one who must make the deal. Seattle wants it, but Toronto needs it. For Seattle, it would be a lost gain. For Philadelphia, they can keep Lee and negotiate with Halladay next off-season and keep their prospects. But AA is going to have a very unhappy star, and the prospect of draft picks if this were to fall apart. He simply can't now go back to square 1, and with Philly out of the deal only the Yankees and Angels are remote possibilities with AA having zero leverage in bargaining. No way the Jays would now make Halladay play out his contract in Toronto.
I'm concerned that AA might just decide to take the guy who failed his physical and hope for the best. An upgrade to Brown would be possible if there was a Jays minor leaguer who the Phillies would have any interest in as compensation, but the system is so crappy that's unlikely. Something like adding Accardo and an outfield prospect could work if the Jays had a minor league outfield prospect that the Phils would look at for more than 2 seconds before their eyes glazed over.
rpriske - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 02:54 PM EST (#209856) #
Word is that we will know for sure soon. A 5pm press conference.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:08 PM EST (#209858) #

Philly should be praying its someone in the Seattle portion of the deal:  I'm sure they got more than a few "what the heck" calls after word on the Lee portion of the deal got out.  From TO's perspective I'm not too worried:  if its Wallace we just keep Taylor and the other 50% of BB is happy.  If its Drabek then Philly is responsible for making another permutation work (Happ/Brown).  If its the Catcher- they can send us another piece. 

Interesting thought.  Does MLB really consider this a 3-way deal?  Since nobody from Seattle moved to the Jays it could be 2 separate deals.  What I'm really asking is if there's a scenario where Philly has already shipped Lee to Seattle, but Drabek fails the physical... i.e. they'd be under HEAVY pressure to consumate a Halladay deal.

FYI, plenty of teams (including ours) trot out third basemen with no range. Glaus wasn't exactly Scott Rolen while he was here, EE isn't the second coming of Adrian Beltre, and Hinske had a couple of 20+ error seasons.  Wallace may be a bit of a liability at third defensively, but if his arm is ok I don't see how that means he can't play there.  If we focus on having a good defensive shortstop next to him he should be able to stick there.  Its not like we're asking him to play CF at Comerica.

Even if he is a 1B, there's no "logjam"  A logjam would be having 3 guys who can go .300/25/90 or better at 1B/DH.  Right now we have one of those (Lind).  If Wallace, Snider, Cooper, and Dopirak all become that then I think AA will be able to find a way to solve the "problem".  In the meantime let them all develop and see who comes up good.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:18 PM EST (#209861) #
Per Elliot: "MRI on Wallace's shoulder clears Taylor-to-Oakland deal."
rpriske - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:24 PM EST (#209862) #
It is a four team deal, really, because two of the trades are completely dependent on the third. Even though the Phil/Sea deal didn't include any of the players from the Tor/Phil deal, it was worded as being contingent. (At least that is what it seems.)
China fan - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:32 PM EST (#209863) #
The deal is confirmed.  Bastian:  Blue Jays receive: RHP Kyle Drabek, C Travis d'Arnaud from Phillies and 1B/3B Brett Wallace from A's. Three former first-round picks.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:37 PM EST (#209864) #

All reports have Wallace as being a fairly athletic guy.  It just that he has big legs and third base is a reaction position and while he can handle the ball right at him he is slow moving left and right.  Mike Lowell was reported to be like this last season after his hip problems.  It will be interesting to see if the Jays try him at third.

The Jays now have two third basemen, one who can pick it but has trouble throwing, and one who has trouble with range but who can throw.  Can we get the best of both please?

Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:40 PM EST (#209865) #
I'd guess that the Jays keep Wallace at third for at least a couple years - until a) he shows he really can't handle it, or b) they find someone superior for the position. Also, perhaps, pending the development of Cooper and/or Dopirak.
PeterG - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:51 PM EST (#209866) #
Anyone else think that Snider could be moved, say for a young ss of equal calibre.
binnister - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:56 PM EST (#209867) #

I'm still curious if there are any other players included in the deals that haven't been mentioned yet (unlikely, I know).

I'm still hopeful that Overbay is somehow on his way to Seattle.  With the BoSox rumoured to be turning their sights on San Deigo's Adrian Gonzales, perhaps Lyle would be a good Plan B for them?  Question would be:  How much of *his* contract would they have to pay to get a good-great prospect coming back in return? (Carlos Triunfel?)

Moe - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 03:59 PM EST (#209868) #
Anyone else think that Snider could be moved, say for a young ss of equal calibre

High end SS prospects are in short supply, so you'd have to give up more. And most teams are very reluctant to do prospect for prospect swaps. Most of the time one of the two GMs will look really bad. Just think Rios-Lincecum would have gone through.  This makes the Taylor-Wallace trade so intriguing, imo.

Mike Green - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:06 PM EST (#209871) #
Occasionally, it happens.  I remember Von Hayes for Julio Franco, and Julio is freaking older than I am...
John Northey - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:07 PM EST (#209873) #
Hmmm.... Overbay, cash, Snider and a reliever (Downs or Accardo) for a high end young shortstop and spare parts?  That would be a deal with potential disaster for both teams but also potential major success for both.  AA seems unafraid to take risks (Wallace-Taylor) so if he finds a dance partner it could be fun.
MatO - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:14 PM EST (#209874) #
The trade was Hayes for Franco, Manny Trillo, George Vukovich, Jerry Willard and Jay Baller.  It was more of a Halladay trade except that Hayes was 24 and established as a young star.  Snider hasn't established himself yet.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:14 PM EST (#209875) #
AA on mlb.com just said Wallace is going to be a FIRST BASEMAN. He also said he's a true impact - middle of the order - bat.

He was VERY high on D'Arnaud - thought he'd be a star with both offensive tools - including big time power - and defensive skills. AA was clearly excited about him.

ALSO very high on Drabek - when fully developed he'll be a top of rotation starter.

OK - is it April yet?
85bluejay - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:17 PM EST (#209876) #
I wouldn't be surprised if Snider is moved for young pitching.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:20 PM EST (#209877) #
That wasn't how Bill James (or I) saw the Franco/Hayes deal.  Prospect for prospect, with 4 throw-ins essentially.  Hayes had one season with Cleveland at age 23 as a right-fielder and put up an OPS+ of 90, but was considered to be a top "almost prospect".  Sort of like Rios after 2004 and not that different from Snider now. 
Mike Forbes - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:21 PM EST (#209878) #
It's gonna be either fun or devestating watching these new guys develop. I'm highest on Drabek, both JP and AA had to pester Amaro about him for months before they'd finally give him up. D'Arnard is the furthest away and still has a lot of time to develop. Wallace, however, is the iffiest of the three to me if he can't stick at 3rd. He will be a ML player sooner rather than later, but will he be Todd Helton (Without Coors-effect) or Lyle Overbay (Minus the D)?
ramone - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:25 PM EST (#209879) #

Interesting Blair just tweeted this:

"They'll need more pitching. AA's not as a big a fan of Snider as a lot of people .... "

Denoit - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:32 PM EST (#209880) #

I wouldn't be surprised if Snider is moved for young pitching.

I dont see how this would make any sense. The Jays have Romero, Rzepczynski, Litsch, Cecil, Jenkins, Alvarez ,Stewart, Drabek. How about lets see what some of these guys turn into. Not to mention they have lots of draft picks to pick up a couple more this year.

Rich - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:37 PM EST (#209881) #
I don't really see Snider being moved.  The organization is thin in the outfield as it is.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:40 PM EST (#209882) #
Anthopoulos discusses the trade at the offical site.
rpriske - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 04:47 PM EST (#209884) #

Time to move Overbay... for anything.

I like the way the team is shaping up for the future but they are sure going to lose a lot of games in 2010... I think we slot in below Baltimore next year.

Gerry - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 05:01 PM EST (#209885) #
Blue Jay press conference will be live on the official site starting now.
Flex - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 05:34 PM EST (#209889) #
I missed the first part of the press conference. Did AA speak about the rumoured injury to Wallace?

Also, I have to say about the part I did see -- very impressive to see AA speaking what seemed like a pretty respectable French in answering a question. Go Canada!
Blue in SK - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 05:54 PM EST (#209890) #
Kinda a dumb question, since I'm pretty sure I know the answer, but what happens with the approx. $9M left over from Doc's salary? Is there a chance that AA gets to use that to grab a FA?
Dave Till - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 06:03 PM EST (#209893) #
One thing I would want to know about the players the Jays are receiving is: are they happy to come here?

Trades are always risky for the Jays because some ballplayers are less than pleased to learn that they will be playing on turf in a foreign country. Glaus wasn't happy to be here, Rolen eventually wanted out (though he was very professional about it), and I've heard that Encarnacion was less than overjoyed to be coming to Toronto. There's not much point in acquiring a grade-A prospect if he is fervently wishing to be elsewhere.

While this trade makes me very sad, it was probably necessary. Doc had made it clear that he wanted out, and there wasn't much point in having him pitch here in 2010. Getting three prospects is better than two draft picks.

Moe - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 06:07 PM EST (#209895) #
One thing I would want to know about the players the Jays are receiving is: are they happy to come here?

Considering that these are prospects, they probably care more about getting a chance to make it. And Toronto should be a good place for that over the next few years.

codyla - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 07:00 PM EST (#209902) #
I like the Broadway deal.  He use to be a very prized prospect and I think would make an alright reclamation project for Bruce Walton to work on over the spring. I agree though that his future is probably somewhere in the bullpen.
Thomas - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 07:25 PM EST (#209904) #
I missed the first part of the press conference.

It isn't yet, but I expect the press conference will be up soon on the Blue Jays website.

As for whether the players want to come here or not, I don't care too much at this point. I think the point about them just wanting to make the majors is probably true. Also, I'm not sure a high school pitcher out of Colorado would have wanted to come here 15 years ago (well, he may have as the team was successful, but I'm not sure Toronto would have topped some other cities) and he was as loyal as they come. It may make sense to consider that more with an Encarnacion type, although I'd still argue you can't let it dictate your moves, but with regards to 3 prospects in their early twenties I'd say you can't give it a second thought.

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 07:31 PM EST (#209906) #
Giving up and selling low on an outfielder in his early 20s like Snider would be a MASSIVE mistake. I cannot stress that enough. Many scouts and baseball people project him as an absolute star.
TamRa - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 07:49 PM EST (#209908) #
Kinda a dumb question, since I'm pretty sure I know the answer, but what happens with the approx. $9M left over from Doc's salary? Is there a chance that AA gets to use that to grab a FA?

He probably could if he wanted to but I seriously doubt he has that kind of target in mind. Everything is pretty much setlled except half of RF

Maybe 2-3 million on someone like Ryan Church but I don't think there will be any other guaranteed deals going out.

In fact, if Overbay is dealt there's more money yet to be cut.

Ron - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:04 PM EST (#209910) #
AA Press conference:

- Thanked Roy Halladay

- We were offered players with 3 and 4 years of service time in trade packages. We could have received more than 3 players in a trade but the quality wasn’t there. We wanted good young controllable players. Teams were told to make offers heading into the Winter Meetings.

- Trade was basically completed by Saturday night and presented to ownership on Sunday morning. AA kept in touch with Nadir Mohamed and Tony Viner to keep them in the loop.

- All 3 players will be invited to the Major League camp.

- While not completely shutting the door on Wallace at 3B, the Jays see him at 1B. They also see him as an above average defender at that position. Wallace is a middle of the order bat. AA expects Wallace to start the season in Las Vegas.

- See Drabek as a front of the rotation starter. Really good fastball and curveball with a developing change up. He is a really competitive player and is expected to start the season at New Hampshire. Drabek won’t be rushed to the Majors.

- D’Arnaud is somebody that Jays were going to select in the draft before the Phillies picked him. Has really good tools behind the plate and comes from a baseball family. Really impressed with how he performed at the plate in the 2nd half of the season. See him as a frontline starter.

- Once Taylor came up in trade discussion during the summer, we approached the A’s if they had any interest in a Taylor for Wallace swap. We knew the A’s were stocked in that position.

- It takes 95 wins to make the playoffs. We have shifted out draft philosophy. While we still evaluate risk, we are more open to taking higher ceiling players in the draft.

- Mentioned core players like Hill, Lind, and Snider

- Not a big fan of the current group of free agent pitchers but hasn’t closed the door on anything

- Toronto is a BIG market. We have the whole Country to market to.

Halladay Press Conference:

- Thanked the city of Toronto, the fans, and the organization. It will always be a special place.

- Admitted that he watched the World Series and thought of himself in Cliff Lee’s position.

- He looked at the schedule and is well aware of the Phillies trip to Toronto. He doesn’t know if the fans will boo or cheer him but at least he was appreciated (he said this with a smile on his face)

- Looks forward to contributing to the Philly community.

- Really happy about the trade. He’s at the point of his career where he really wants to win and his timeline didn’t match the Jays timeline.

timpinder - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:07 PM EST (#209911) #
I hope Blair's just speculating about Snider.  In a few years the Jays' lineup could be scary as hell with Lind, Wallace and Snider providing some serious power from the left side.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:10 PM EST (#209913) #
- Toronto is a BIG market. We have the whole Country to market to.

Right.  The first step is acknowledgement.  Next comes planning.


Dewey - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:20 PM EST (#209914) #
In my books, Snider is an untouchable.  How the notion of trading him can even appear in a Toronto paper is beyond me.   I'll be very surprised if he isn't a very, very special player.
Mike Green - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:30 PM EST (#209915) #
Untouchable?  If the Rays offered up Evan Longoria, the Jays would be wise to sign without a moment's hesitation.  Travis Snider has a chance to be almost as good as Fred McGriff was, but if the right deal comes along...
TamRa - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:37 PM EST (#209916) #
Marc,

Maybe an off the wall question, but assuming that Wallace develops into the unquestioned 1B, and Lind (or Snider) fits in as the long term DH....

then assuming that d'Arnoud develops to the point that he overtakes Arencibia, does JPA have the potential ability to move to another position like 3B or RF? Or would it come down to potentially trading him when the time come to clear the decks?



Ron - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:40 PM EST (#209917) #
Now the trade is official, I can finally give my thoughts on the trade (from a strictly Toronto perspective).

The return the Jays got was average. A Taylor for Wallace swap is a downgrade. Trading a 5 tool prospect for a 1B of Wallace’s status is foolish. The Jays already have plenty of options at the 1B position and lack OF’s that are above average in the field. There’s very little to dislike about Taylor. I question how much Wallace is going to hit. His numbers in the hitter friendly PCL don’t wow me. His strike zone discipline isn’t as good as what many scouts thought it would be coming out of the draft. You can’t ignore the positions that these 2 will play. I think Drabek has the chance to be really good. He already has 2 plus pitches but his change up needs to improve. He struggled against LHB’s last season. I like the bulldog mentality he brings to the mound. D’Arnaud is the least known of the group but he has the chance to be the best player in the package. His didn’t throw out a lot of base stealers but scouts like his ability behind the plate. His slash line after the all-star game was .302/.366/.473. He was also a big reason why his team won the Sally League Championship last season.

I would place the return in the middle of the recent ace blockbuster trades. This package is better than what the Twins (Santana) and Indians (Lee) got, but not as good as the Mariners (Bedard)or Indians (Colon) packages. Jesus Montero was the best player offered to the Jays and I would have picked a Montero package (even if Hughes or Joba wasn’t included) over Drabek/Wallace/D’Arnaud.

 

timpinder - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 08:53 PM EST (#209919) #

Again, I was just looking at what Travis Snider has done in the minors at a younger age than Wallace, and I REALLY hope that Jeff Blair was just guessing about the possibility of Snider being moved.  Looking at the numbers, Snider has looked like the better hitter than Wallace and at a younger age.

The only problem I see is where you place three relatively slow, power hitting left-handed hitters in the lineup.  Snider had better be sticking around.  If anything it is Lind who should be dealt while his value is high.

CaramonLS - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 09:13 PM EST (#209921) #
The only problem I see is where you place three relatively slow, power hitting left-handed hitters in the lineup.

In the 3, 4 and 5 slots?
Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 09:37 PM EST (#209924) #
Trading a 5 tool prospect for a 1B of Wallace’s status is foolish.

It probably would be, but I don't think anyone has described Taylor as a 5 tool prospect.
Dewey - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 09:37 PM EST (#209925) #
Untouchable?  If the Rays offered up Evan Longoria, the Jays would be wise to sign without a moment's hesitation.  Travis Snider has a chance to be almost as good as Fred McGriff was, but if the right deal comes along...

Well, O.K., Mike; if you can get us Longoria for him, I'd like that.  (Anyone else you'd trade him for, realistically?)  And if he's "almost as good as Fred McGriff", that's very, very special to me.  I really hope he is.

And, once again, Snider is not slow--not even "relatively slow" by Jays' recent standards.  The two best runners the Jays have had were Alomar and Molitor.  Neither was especially fast.   Just very smart on the basepaths.
ayjackson - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 09:40 PM EST (#209927) #
What Taylor has is a large toolbox and I doubt his knees and back would hold up very long on Rogers Centre turf.
Geoff - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 09:57 PM EST (#209929) #
It probably would be, but I don't think anyone has described Taylor as a 5 tool prospect.

If someone saying it makes it so, then you can read it here. Just read it moments ago in a story about that saint now cozying up to his new masters.
christaylor - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 10:01 PM EST (#209931) #
A line up of Lind, Snider and Wallace will be a natural for a LOOGY to come in even though Lind hits LHP and Wallace is purported to hit it as well.

I think am on the side of trading Snider in a Garza/Young type trade especially if the Jays can get a top of the rotation talent of about the same age. If not, keep him.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 10:22 PM EST (#209933) #
Okay, BA also said he's shown 5-tool ability, though they go on to say he "runs well for his size", he has slightly above-average power, and that he's an average fielder who probably ends up in left.

I'd be happy with either player, honestly. They've each got their strengths and weaknesses, and I'm not sure how you can fault someone for valuing one above the other.

Geoff - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:21 PM EST (#209936) #
Shi Davidi of CP chips in with a good summary of the Trade, if you haven't had enough reading about it yet.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:30 PM EST (#209937) #
WillRain, JP Arencibia's value lies in his defense and plus-power for a catcher, so I doubt he moves anywhere... and I still like him better than D'Arnaud, if for no other reason than the new catcher has not played above low-A ball. And he has yet to flash the defensive skills (constantly) that he was reputed to have prior to the draft. Snider should remain good enough defensively to stick in left field for awhile, which could leave some flexibility with the DH position.

rtcaino - Wednesday, December 16 2009 @ 11:49 PM EST (#209938) #
As a general response, my thoughts are that:

Lind can likely hit at a level considered to be avg to above avg for a DH. While also being able to effectively spell 1B and Lf.

Snider can defend LF at a level considered to be average to above avg.

Also that Lind, Snider and Wallace have the remote potential of developing into an above average foundation to be the 'heart of the order' for an aspiring contending team.
CaramonLS - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 12:12 AM EST (#209940) #
A line up of Lind, Snider and Wallace will be a natural for a LOOGY to come in even though Lind hits LHP and Wallace is purported to hit it as well.

It's pretty easy to find a Right hander who can play a decent 1B and hit LHP.  Hell, we have one sitting on our bench right now in Randy Ruiz.

Also having 3 power lefties in the heart of the order... well, you've had 3 cracks each at that Right handed pitcher and if those guys develop the way we hope they do, that should be enough on a lot of nights.

Left handed hitters >>> Right handed hitters.
TamRa - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 12:20 AM EST (#209941) #
So in theory, if both players developed according to their clippings, sometime along about the winter of 2013 or so you'd have to decide which to keep and which to deal?

It looks to me like it's shaking out to be, potentially...(assuming good development on the prospects projected)

1B:
2010 - Overbay/Wallace (possibly Ruiz stopgap if LO is dealt)
2011 - Wallace
2012 - Wallace
2013 - Wallace
2014 - Wallace
2015 - Wallace

DH:
2010 - Lind
2011 - Lind
2012 - Lind
2013 - Lind
2014 -
2015 -

LF:
2010 - Snider
2011 - Snider
2012 - Snider
2013 - Snider
2014 - Snider
2015 -

CF:
2010 - Wells
2011 - Wells
2012 - Mastorianni
2013 - Marisnick
2014 - Marisnick
2015 - Marisnick

RF:
2010 - Bautsita/?? (Church?)
2011 - ?
2012 - Wells
2013 - Wells
2014 - Wells
2015 -

C:
2010 - Buck
2011 - Arencibia
2012 - Arencibia
2013 - Arencibia
2014 - d'Arnoud
2015 - d'Arnoud

2B:
2010 - Hill
2011 - Hill
2012 - Hill
2013 - Hill
2014 - Hill
2015 -

3B:
2010 - Encarnacion
2011 - Encarnacion
2012 - ?
2013 - ?
2014 - Aherns?
2015 - Aherns?

SS:
2010 - Gonzalez
2011 - Gonzalez
2012 - ?
2013 - Jackson?
2014 - Jackson
2015 - Jackson

One possible alternate being Hill moving over to 3B in 2012 and Emaus (for instance) taking over at 2B....

Of course there will be other acquisitions.One draft site suggests the possibility that the Jays would have a chance to take some kid named Zach Cox who's a 3B next year at #11...not like I think they know what is going to happen but just theroetically, a guy like that might come fast enough that you wouldn't be thinking of moving Hill in a couple of years.

The takeaway her for me though is that CFwill either have to put up with Wells eroding defense for a LONG time to come or else marisnick (or some other player yet to be acquired) is going to have to get ready as soon as possible.
Following from that is the idea that if you have to move Wells, EF is going to be the only logical place open and that will potentially block guys like Seirra.

Maybe after 2012 we could eat half of Wells contract in order to dump the last couple of years someplace? Seems like it would be the obvious play. Or best case, assuming the now all but impossible opt out won't happen) is that after 2011 we swallow $9 mil a year for the next three years and get some team to take him on just so we can get the last of the old school out of here...


Denoit - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 07:20 AM EST (#209944) #

The only problem I see is where you place three relatively slow, power hitting left-handed hitters in the lineup.

How about 3,4,5? Thats not really a problem. These players although they are not speedsters, they are in no way "base clogs".  They run fairly well for their size (at least for now).

rpriske - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 08:45 AM EST (#209946) #

<i>- He looked at the schedule and is well aware of the Phillies trip to Toronto. He doesn’t know if the fans will boo or cheer him but at least he was appreciated (he said this with a smile on his face)</i>

Anyone who boos Doc when he comes here should have their fan rights taken away.

Thomas - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 08:48 AM EST (#209947) #
Anyone who boos Doc when he comes here should have their fan rights taken away.

Agreed. And I could be convinced it wouldn't be unreasonable to return the death penalty to Canada. If there's anything short of a ten minute standing ovation I will be disappointed.

MatO - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 01:49 PM EST (#209966) #

That wasn't how Bill James (or I) saw the Franco/Hayes deal.  Prospect for prospect, with 4 throw-ins essentially. 

I don't recall what James said but I wouldn't agree.  Vukovich got into 123 games with the Phillies in 1982 with an OPS+ of 101 and Trillo was their starting 2nd baseman and had been for a number of years.  Even Baller put up a nice stat line in the EL as a 21 year old pitcher in 1982.

 

MatO - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 03:11 PM EST (#209975) #
Furthermore, Trillo was the NL gold glove winner for 1982, the NL starter at 2B in the All Star Game in 1982 and the AL starter in the All Star Game in 1983 before being traded to the Expos when Trillo indicated he would not re-sign with the Indians after the 1983 season when he would be a FA.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 03:28 PM EST (#209976) #
Yeah, I remember that.  Manny Trillo hit basically like a modestly improved John McDonald, and after age 30 won his GGs based on reputation.
MatO - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 03:45 PM EST (#209977) #
I know Trillo hit like crap but that wasn't unusual for a middle infielder in those days.  My point is that he had good reputation whether it was warranted or not and wouldn't have been considered filler at the time.
Mick Doherty - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 03:46 PM EST (#209978) #

hit basically like a modestly improved John McDonald

Mike, I rarely disagree with assertions you make here, and maybe my memory is failing me, but to say that is to vastly undersell Trillo. Trillo's most similars at BBRef are guys like Cookie Rojas, Jim Gantner, Toto Fuentes and Jose Vizcaino -- not a HOFer among them, but significantly outpacing Toronto's Prime Minister of Defense. Three Gold Gloves and two Silver Slugger awards ... yeah, Johnny Mac would take that rightnow without blinking. Trillo wasn't a Joe Morgan type, obviously, but he was several cuts above the other JM you compare him to ...

Mick Doherty - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 03:47 PM EST (#209979) #
P.S. sorry Senor Fuentes ... Tito, not Toto ... good doggie!
westcoast dude - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 04:04 PM EST (#209981) #
Hitler finds out Kyle Drabek is on the trading block.  www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xz5HB_Nd84c
binnister - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 04:20 PM EST (#209983) #

"Don't worry.  Peter Gammons always checks his sources."  Oh God!  I just about lost it right there. 

.....oh, the fun you can have with subtitles...

Mike Green - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 04:51 PM EST (#209988) #
Mick, Manny had been a decent hitter for a middle infielder in his 20s, but then he turned 30 and Roger Daltrey waved his magic wand and turned him into a .271/.316/.319 hitter at 31.  Shockingly, he had won 2 Silver Slugger awards immediately prior to that for the Phils, but any resemblance between him and Chase Utley ends there!

If you want to call the trade HAYES for FRANCO and Trillo and 3 others, I guess I'll buy it.


binnister - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 07:52 PM EST (#209999) #

Is it too soon to talk about batting order?

*Who* leads off?  Does it really matter?  Is there going to be a 'right' way to  set the line-up...that will be trumped by the 'Cito'-way? Even if some of the kids are great in spring training, the team isn't going to risk having any  'Super-Two', so you're likely going to start the season with what the Jay's ended with...

Suggestion:

  1. CF - Wells, V  -- Take the pressure off this guy to drive in runs.  Just get the bat-on-the-ball. Unfortunately, probably one of the faster players in the starting lineup.
  2. 1B/DH - Overbay  -- (If he's still around) - Going to need his OBP
  3. 2B - Hill - He's wasted in the #2 spot, IMO
  4. LF/RF/DH/1B - Lind  -- Hopefully, he won't be intimidated this year to take over the cleanup spot.
  5. DH - Ruiz/Dopirak  -- Again, need a power threat after Lind
  6. 3B - Encarcion -- More power...(here's hoping)...
  7. LF/RF - Snider -- Will he stick with the big club?  Does Cito take him out of the 9 spot?
  8. C - Buck  -- Guess we'll see if he's Barajas or Barajas-lite...
  9. SS - AGon/JMac -- Can we have the pitchers hit instead?

Batista, Gaithright, Chavez on the bench (which makes 14)

Geoff - Thursday, December 17 2009 @ 10:49 PM EST (#210012) #
I saw him throw a curveball the other day and I swear it gave me a boner.

Got to learn how to say that in German and scream it at people on days that Drabek pitches.

Jays2010 - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 01:59 AM EST (#210015) #

If the Jays are trading any of their young left-handed hitters (Lind/Snider/Wallace) I think it should be Lind. First off, he already has two years of service time while Snider/Wallace have zero. Second, he seemingly has the lowest amount of defensive value.

I've suggested before that an Adam Lind for Madison Bumgarner (maybe something else added in by the Giants) would be an interesting gamble to take...and considering that the Jays seemingly have the easiest positions filled (LF & 1B) as well as a number of DH candidates (Ruiz/Dopirak/Cooper/.850 OPS guys on the FA market for $5 million), trading Lind (at possibly the peak of his value) would clear up the logjam. And Bumgarner/Drabek/Romero/Cecil/Rzepzynski/Marcum along with our wealth of backend starter options is the type of young, controllable rotation the Jays need to first get back to .500 and eventually contend, hopefully. It's a massive gamble obviously, considering Bumgarner has almost zero MLB experience. But he has the higher ceiling, one of the highest ceilings of any pitching prospect, and I don't think the Jays need a DH the calibre of Lind...but they do need a potential future ace...

92-93 - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 02:24 AM EST (#210016) #
"Jesus Montero was the best player offered to the Jays and I would have picked a Montero package (even if Hughes or Joba wasn’t included) over Drabek/Wallace/D’Arnaud."

I agree completely. As long as the Yankees were willing to part with Montero, they had a better offer on the table. And it doesn't take much, seeing as the Jays are paying 6m of Halladay's contract. That money goes a long way on draft day and in international signings, so I think any Montero+ deal was a better option than Drabek/Wallace/D'Arnaud and a 6m tab. It's all moot though, because we really have no idea what sort of offers Anthopolous was choosing from.

I'm amazed at the Yankees reluctance to acquire Halladay. Their love for Hughes/Chamberlain stopped them from getting Johan, and it happened again. I assume AA accepts a Montero + Hughes/Joba offer in a New York minute, and I really don't understand why the Yankees wouldn't jump at the opportunity to pick up Doc and assemble a potentially historic rotation. If the Yankees insisted I'm sure Downs could have made this trade happen.
Hodgie - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 11:25 AM EST (#210022) #

"Jesus Montero was the best player offered to the Jays and I would have picked a Montero package (even if Hughes or Joba wasn’t included) over Drabek/Wallace/D’Arnaud."

I would agree with this if Montero was staying behind the plate, but while hardly definitive the current reports seem to suggest a move will be necessary. Is Montero the 1st basemen that much more valuable than Wallace to offest the loss of D'Arnaud and Drabek? I just can't see it unless perhaps you are also going to argue that Montero is the only sure fire, can't miss prospect of the bunch and has the greatest chance of fulfilling his potential. 

Mike Green - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 11:50 AM EST (#210023) #
You'd be hard pressed to find a better age 19 season than the one Montero just put up.  At age 19, Miguel Cabrera went .274/.333/.421 in the FSL.  Vladdy didn't reach the Sally League until age 20.  Derek Jeter was still in the Sally League and hitting OK. Ruben Sierra was in double A, but had had an OBP under .300.  I guess Delmon Young's 2005 season in double A would be comparable or better, and that probably illustrates that Montero is not a sure thing.   His odds of being an excellent hitter are probably over 75%. 



metafour - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 12:35 PM EST (#210029) #
Montero is easily the best prospect out of anyone mentioned, but do you go with 1 very very good prospect vs. two very good prospects and a 3rd who has as much potential as the two very good prospects? I realize that the Yankees would send more than just Montero, but anything else in that package would be nowhere near as good as the other pieces we got.

Personally, I think we picked the perfect mix of quality and quantity. Even though we aren't going to be competing anytime soon there is also value in sending Halladay well out of the American League.
zeppelinkm - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 12:36 PM EST (#210030) #

Mike: Not going to hold you to anything (and all these players are at different points in their development), but what odds would you give Wallace and Snider to becoming excellent hitters? And what odds to the new catcher of becoming an everyday regular with at least a league average bat?

Ryan Day - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 12:51 PM EST (#210031) #
Even if Montero is superior to anyone the Phillies were offering, and even if we knew for sure the Yankees were offering Montero, I don't mind taking less to send Halladay away from the AL East. I don't think I could watch baseball for a couple years if Doc was playing for the Yankees.
John Northey - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 01:03 PM EST (#210034) #
Age 19 seasons that come to mind...
Carlos Delgado - 286/397/458 in the SAL plus an 0 for 3 in AAA
Ken Griffey - 264/329/420 in the majors for Seattle (wow)
Tony Fernandez - 318/423/407 in the Carolina League (A+ at the time)
Alex Gonzalez - 271/322/402 in the SAL (first A-Gone)
Fred McGriff - 311/414/529 in the SAL, 243/354/469 in A+ (this was his first year in the Jays system after a pure theft by Gillick).

Interesting to look at those vs Jesus Montero hitting 356/406/583 in A+ and 317/370/539 in AA.  Only Griffey Jr was clearly better (just due to being in the majors).  Montero could be at any position and be a #1 prospect for any team right now if that age is correct.  19 year olds who hit like that at those levels just don't come along often.  If NYY really offered him and he passed a physical then not grabbing him would be a mistake imo.  Guess we'll see. 

Hmm...wonder if the Yankees would be interested in a solid fielding first baseman and a few relievers :)
#2JBrumfield - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 01:22 PM EST (#210037) #

Hitler finds out Kyle Drabek is on the trading block.

I should be offended but that video is pure comedy gold!  My stomach is so sore right now!  Should the younger Drabek win a Cy Young with the Jays - it'd be neat for a father-son combo to win the Cy Young.

92-93 - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 01:30 PM EST (#210038) #
"Is Montero the 1st basemen that much more valuable than Wallace to offset the loss of D'Arnaud and Drabek?"

Montero, some B- prospects, and 6m? Yes, it's that much more valuable. I know people would like to believe that 6m is entirely irrelevant and the Jays will spend what they want to on the draft and international FA market anyway, but I just can't believe that to be possible.

"Even though we aren't going to be competing anytime soon there is also value in sending Halladay well out of the American League."

No there isn't.

"I don't mind taking less to send Halladay away from the AL East"

I really hope the Jays didn't just trade away their most valuable commodity ever with this line of thinking in their head.
Geoff - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 01:31 PM EST (#210039) #
Halladay, Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte....  the thought of it makes me sick.

Somewhat surprising the Yankees didn't pony up more to make it happen. They remain the team with all the muscle and appetite to make almost anything happen -- I half expected them to offer to eat a large portion of Vernon's contract and take him with Roy, sending out Chamberlain and Jackson and some other young guys who will never become stars but maybe possibly regulars. For a few years.

Then of course Rogers Centre might burn down in the middle of December.

Geoff - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 01:38 PM EST (#210041) #
There must be a more refined and proper way to say this but so far I've got:

Ich sah ihm einen Curveball geworfen und ich schwöre, das gab mir einen Boner.
Or should it be ...das mir einen Boner geben!. ...? Dang deutsche grammar.

Hodgie - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 02:57 PM EST (#210044) #

"Montero, some B- prospects, and 6m? Yes, it's that much more valuable."

Sorry 92-93, perhaps I misunderstood. Earlier when you said that any Montero+ deal was better than what the Jays eventually got, it seemed to imply that it didn't matter what the "plus" was, Montero was the only important piece and thus my question. I think that argument could still be made if Montero was going to stay behind the plate. Obivously, if it were Montero plus some B- prospects plus the $6m in savings that is a different deal altogether and his eventual position would not be nearly as important.

 

Moe - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 03:17 PM EST (#210045) #
I saw him throw a curveball the other day and I swear it gave me a boner.

Neulich sah ich ihn einen "Curveball" werfen -- I schwoere, das gab mir einen Staender

or

Neulich beobachtete/sah ich wie er einen "Curveball" wurf -- es gab mir einen Staender
vw_fan17 - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 03:37 PM EST (#210047) #
Neulich sah ich ihn einen "Curveball" werfen -- I schwoere, das gab mir einen Staender

Hierauf muss ich schliessen dass es noch NICHT April ist!
Mike Green - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 03:42 PM EST (#210048) #

In answer to zep's question, Snider is about 50-50 to be an excellent hitter, Wallace is about 40-60 and D'Arnaud has about a 20 per cent chance of being a regular valuable contributor as a catcher, in my opinion.  That figure for D'Arnaud sounds like a slight, but it isn't.  Injuries cut down the odds for catching prospects more than I thought, as I discovered in my bet with Gleeman.  We bet on Mauer, Mathis, Navarro and Quiroz who were all young and had succeeded at the high A level at least. 

The Jays now have three catching prospects with a chance- Arencibia, D'Arnaud and Perez, and with decent luck, one will make it.  My money's on Perez.

 

Ron - Friday, December 18 2009 @ 07:09 PM EST (#210065) #
Like what others have already mentioned, it's incredible what Montero did as 19 year old. It's not often you see a 19 year old slug almost .600 in the FSL and than move on and crush AA pitching. The jury is still out if he can stay at Catcher but he is a hard worker and has showed improvement behind the plate. He will be an elite bat at either C or 1B. I'm surprised the Yankees made him available to the Jays. I know not every top prospect pans out, but I feel like Montero has Hall Of Fame potential. If I was in charge of the Jays I would have had no problem flipping Doc for Montero and McAcllister, heck I probably would have said yes if only Montero was coming back to the Jays.
TamRa - Sunday, December 20 2009 @ 01:53 AM EST (#210107) #
Personally, I think we picked the perfect mix of quality and quantity. Even though we aren't going to be competing anytime soon there is also value in sending Halladay well out of the American League.

I agree. No matter if Montero is the best prospect in baseball - which I haven't heard him called yet - he's ONE guy and a single guy assumes all the risk of something untoward happening which kills all your value.

Say for instance he's hit in the eye with a pitch and his vision is permenantly damaged. all the eggs are in one basket.

With the package we recieved, the risk of losing all value is substantially reduced.

Further, as someone else mentioned, if both Montero and Wallace hit their ceiling, then what do you have in their primes?


If Montero is in the class with Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira andthe like then he's a 5-7 WAR player annually, maybe near the top of that range.

So Law and others suggest Wallace is a .400 OPS guy in the majors with 20-something homer power and a very good chance of reaching his potential (theoretically the major selling point on Wallace is the high probability he pans out)

So he's at least what (if he reaches the ceiling)...Joey Votto? kevin Youklis? Which is a 4-6 WAR player.

So having Wallace instead of Montero is worth maybe 2 WAR annually, maybe less?

And we won't get that from the other two guys?

I disagree.

there is some marginal value in taking Montero from the Yankees but that only applies if Doc is only in NY one year.

And that brings me to my second point. the value in not dealing doc in the AL East is magnified exponentially in his not being here for up to five seasons. If he'd been dealt to a team that let him go next year and he went back to the AL East in 2011 then it's of less value to not have traded him in division (conversely, if NY or Boston had foolishly paid up without an extension and then he'd have gone to the Phillies as a FA anyway then that's an argument in favor of taking an offer in the division.

Bottom line, if we HAD to deal him, I like the return. montero looks really good right now but I'm not looking back wishind we'd gotten him.

ayjackson - Sunday, December 20 2009 @ 11:12 AM EST (#210119) #

Age 19 seasons that come to mind...
Carlos Delgado - 286/397/458 in the SAL plus an 0 for 3 in AAA
Ken Griffey - 264/329/420 in the majors for Seattle (wow)
Tony Fernandez - 318/423/407 in the Carolina League (A+ at the time)
Alex Gonzalez - 271/322/402 in the SAL (first A-Gone)
Fred McGriff - 311/414/529 in the SAL, 243/354/469 in A+ (this was his first year in the Jays system after a pure theft by Gillick).

Snider's .313/.377/.525 in the MWL compares fairly well with the Crime Dog.  A few less walks.  Not sure how the SAL back then compared to the pitchers' environment of Lansing in 2007.

ayjackson - Sunday, December 20 2009 @ 11:18 AM EST (#210120) #
When was the last time a Blue Jay got on base over .400 for a full season?
James W - Sunday, December 20 2009 @ 12:03 PM EST (#210124) #

In 2004, Frank Menechino did it in 71 games, 276 PA.  He posted exactly a .400 OBP.

In 2003, Carlos Delgado had a .426 OBP in 705 PA.

Reed Johnson had a .390 OBP in 2006 (517 PA).

ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, December 20 2009 @ 11:01 PM EST (#210161) #
Kevin Goldstein was on mlb radio today and discussed the Halladay trade. He sees Taylor as a significantly better prospect than Brett Wallace. Apparently Stanford messed with Taylor's swing, and he had to recover it in the minors. About Wallace, he said first baseman on playoff teams are impact, 3-4 hitter types (Sorry Lyle) and Wallace doesn't project to be one. His 2009 stats aren't particularly good for a guy repeating AA and hitting in the PCL, a .822 OPS combined AA/PCL.

Taylor also split time in 09 between AA and AAA, though his AAA numbers are in the less hitter-friendly IL. His OPS was .122 higher than Wallace's notwithstanding the PCL/IL difference.

Bill James project 2010 major league numbers for both, they're at fangraphs. For Wallace he projects a .756 OPS and .812 for Taylor.

Add the positional difference and I'd rather have Taylor. I wish AA had stopped after the Philly deal. I think they fell in love with Wallace's 2008 numbers. One could say that Wallace has only had 2 minor league seasons and Taylor 3, but they're old 8 months apart in age, and Taylor has had a .900 to 1.000 OPS at all levels.
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