Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

After Monday's ridiculous slugfest, the Jays shuffled the bullpen chairs a little.

Fresh arms are needed after that, so Merkin Valdez (2 appearances in the first 20 games) has been designated for assignment; Jeremy Accardo (6 runners inherited, 6 runners scored) has been optioned to AAA. Josh Roenicke and Rommie Lewis have been summoned from Las Vegas.

Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 01:24 AM EDT.

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TamRa - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#214244) #

That leaves the Vegas pen down a man - Will we see Magnuson (who's older and might be more ready) promoted, or Tm Collins (I'd be surprised if they go that fast with him)?

or will it be some older placeholder like Bubby?

Thomas - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 03:13 AM EDT (#214246) #

Given that Valdez didn't pitch today and has barely pitched all season, I don't think that his demotion was as related to fresh arms as it was to A) not being impressed with his performance and B) a desire to get a second lefty in the pen, someone they could use more situationally than they use Downs.

I think the Roenicke-Accardo swap, while somewhat related to Accardo's performance, is also a case of needing a fresh arm, which necessitated the move. While the two moves were made at once, I think you can look at them separately as there are different motivations to the two demotions and one can find a reason for Lewis's promotion that isn't simply pitching well in Vegas.

scottt - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 06:17 AM EDT (#214250) #

The pen has been terrible of late. So, who else has options?

For once, Accardo needs to work on his stuff. Roenicke has not allowed a run in 8 innings.

Now, Lewis rather than Carlson or Purcey is interesting. Carlson is really struggling and Purcey still walks too many.

I suppose this means Accardo takes over the closing role at Vegas.

Chuck - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#214257) #

Lewis is presumably being promoted because he's a lefty. Not sure what kind of a LOOGY he'll make. Rotoworld reports that LHB have hit .305 off him during his minor league career.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 09:04 AM EDT (#214259) #

Lewis's promotion is a surprise. He has allowed 13 baserunners in 7.2 innings this season. He was appointed the closer in Vegas and has been dodgy in that role so far. His ERA is 2.35 but he has given up three unearned runs vs 2 earned. He has pitched seven times and only twice did he have a 1-2-3 inning, and those two were in his first three appearances. Having said that he will probably be lights out in the bigs.

Lewis did pitch well in the spring and that likely earned him this promotion, Cito probably asked for him. Other than Roenicke there are not a lot of options in AAA unless the Jays called up a starter and put him in the bullpen. It might be a bit early in the season to do that.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#214262) #

Of course, I'd much rather see Mills in the major league bullpen than Lewis, but service time issues would make that unwise. Mills has 10 days of service from last year, so it'll have to be sometime in May (at the earliest) before he gets the call. My own belief is that he needs a half season in the pen, so it doesn't really matter whether he gets the call in mid-May, mid-June or early July.

China fan - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#214267) #

Mike Green, the problem with your theory is that Mills would probably get very little use in the pen if he is promoted as a reliever. Look at how rarely Valdez was used. The seventh man in the pen is almost forgotten in most situations. In any bullpen configuration that you can imagine, Mills would automatically become the youngest, least-experienced and least-trusted reliever. (You might disagree with that perception, but that's an inevitable perception by any manager, given that Mills is so inexperienced in the pen.) In the vast majority of situations, Gaston is going to prefer Downs, Gregg and Frasor (late innings) or Shawn Camp (earlier innings). Gaston would be rightly slammed by everyone if he tossed Mills into a high-leverage situation in his early months in the bullpen. As for the fabled "long relief" or "sixth starter" slot, it doesn't seem to exist very much these days. So, the net result is that Mills would be little-used in the bullpen and would get very little chance to improve. He's young and he needs to pitch regularly. Better to keep him as a starter in Las Vegas until he has a chance at a regular gig in the Jays rotation.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#214269) #

If Lewis was sent down and Mills was brought up (let's say in June), Mills would not be in the same posiiton as Valdez has been. He would not be the seventh man in the pen, but rather the left-handed middle reliever. If Marcum or Morrow have a shortish outing, he would usually get the call. Valdez was the sixth of six right-handed relievers, so there was really very little role for him unless the starters were really struggling and throwing short outings persistently. This hasn't happened.

China fan - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#214271) #

While Lewis hasn't posted the greatest numbers in seven innings in 2010, it's worth looking at the larger sample size of 2009, when he held the enemy to a .238 average in a combined AAA and AA season. He also struck out 65 batters in 66 innings, and posted a 2.86 ERA.

China fan - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#214274) #

Mike, I suppose we'll just have to agree to disagree on Brad Mills, because nobody can accurately predict how the Jays would use their bullpen in some future month, but I just don't think Mills would be the natural choice for the first guy out of the bullpen if Marcum or Morrow has a short outing. I don't think his left-handedness would trump his youth and inexperience in those kinds of situations. You're advocating a somewhat unconventional idea -- using the bullpen as a way for young pitchers to prepare for a starting role -- and I just don't think that's how any manager uses his bullpen these days. The manager's first imperative is to win games, not to provide on-the-job training for potential future starters, unless the game has become a meaningless blowout. I think ultimately we're disagreeing on what SHOULD happen (your suggestion) versus what WOULD happen (my prediction).

uglyone - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#214279) #

The truth is that Accardo and Valdez never did anything to deserve a spot on this team - not during spring training, and not during the season. Keeping them on the team was a rather silly decision (much like choosing Tallet to start over the much more deserving Cecil). Accardo was especially glaring because he simply did not have even one single quality outing at any point - spring training or regular season - and that was coming off a very unimpressive performance last sason. If we had picked the most deserving pitching staff coming out of ST, we would have been much better off at this point of the season.

Romero
Marcum
Morrow
Cecil
Rzepczynski*
Eveland

CL Gregg
SU Downs
SU Janssen
MR Frasor
MR Carlson/Purcey/Roenicke
LR Camp
LR Tallet

We decided to get cute with our roster decisions out of ST, instead of simply picking the best pitching staff we could have, and we've paid for it in the standings already.

And yes, Wilner, by "we" I mean the Blue Jays.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#214280) #

And I'm 100% with Mike on the Mills-to-the-bullpen train if there's no room for him in the rotation.

And with Romero/Marcum/Morrow/Cecil/Rzepczysni/(Eveland) ahead of him, and with Litsch and McGowan potentially coming back mid-season, and with Drabek/Stewart/Jenkins coming up behind him, I'm not sure there's going to be room for him in the rotation now or in the future. At least not as much more than an injury fill-in.

And if there isn't a need for him in the rotation, I see no reason to keep a 25 year old pitcher dominating in his 2nd season down at AAA, when he could be improving our bullpen.

China fan - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#214281) #

Mills did not exactly "dominate" in 2009. He improved dramatically in his final few games of 2009, but he hasn't yet dominated for a half-season in AAA, let alone a full season. I'm optimistic about the guy, and I think he deserves a chance at the majors at some point in 2010, but let's not exaggerate his achievements so far.

lexomatic - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#214283) #

And I'm 100% with Mike on the Mills-to-the-bullpen train if there's no room for him in the rotation.

and i'm 100% with chinafan on this. not the Mills to bullpen in thoery (because i believe in the exposure prior to getting a shot at the rotation), but my gut is telling me cito won't use him at all (not only improperly). one of the most consistent complaints with cito has been his bullpen usage, it doesn't make sense to entrust a future asset to someone who will most likely hinder his development (throgh management style, even if there's no personal bias there.)
I don't really care one way for Lewis, but if this serves as an evaluation period to see if there's anything more than roster filler, now's the time .

uglyone - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#214284) #

He didn't dominate in 2009, but he is now - and if he continues to dominate in AAA this year, in his 2nd season (i.e. now with plenty of AAA innings under his belt), and if he's not in the starting rotation scenario this year (Marcum/Romero/Cecil/Rzep/Morrow/Litsch/McGowan/Eveland), or in the future (Drabek/Stewart/Jenkins), I don't see what good it would do to have Mills continue to start in AAA instead of improving the team's bullpen and filling the vacant role of LH middle relief that we'd be much better off having.

I mean, even if he goes to the 'pen, this doesn't stop him from being rotation depth if starters get injured.

Of course, as it stands right now, he could just as easily be needed in the rotation as in the 'pen in the coming month or two.

robertdudek - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#214285) #

Keeping them on the team was a rather silly decision (much like choosing Tallet to start over the much more deserving Cecil).

You may agree or disagree with Tallet over Cecil, but it is far from silly. It has to do with the concepts "service time" and "$$$$$$$$$$".

China fan - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#214286) #

Given the rate of injury and dropout in the Jays rotation this year and last year, I'd wager that Mills will get his rotation chance within the next month or two. He's already the next in line for the first vacancy that occurs. It will only take one injury in the rotation -- which happens with dispiriting regularity -- or one decision to demote a pitcher who has a few bad outings. Even if there's not a single injury, I'd think that Mills will get his chance. Morrow and Eveland and Cecil have looked good, but will they stay good for the next couple of months? It's by no means guaranteed. The other pitchers that you mentioned -- McGowan, Litsch, Zep -- are not necessarily waiting in the wings. McGowan is the most doubtful of all, of course, but even Zep and Litsch will need a number of minor-league rehab games, and there's no guarantee that their rehabs will go smoothly. I think Mills will get his chance. Putting him in the bullpen could even distract him from his starter's mentality -- it adds another complication for him to think about -- and I'd rather keep him ready for the rotation chance that will probably arise.

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#214287) #

Chinafan, Cito Gaston was around when Bobby Cox used Jimmy Key this way in his first season. Earl Weaver used the approach often, and Tango, who now advises the club, has been an advocate. The Twins used it (for quite a long time) with Johan Santana, to Gleeman's chagrin. There is nothing radical about the approach, not that there is anything wrong with a radical approach. :)

uglyone - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#214290) #

Jimmy Key, David Wells, Pat Hentgen, Woody Williams, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, Kelvim Escobar, Shaun Marcum....and that's just a partial list of top piching talents from one organization. The list of middling prospect minor league starters becoming MLB pen depth is much longer than that. Not so radical, I don't think.

lexomatic - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#214291) #

people haven't been reading what chinafan and i have been saying..
neither of us is against the principle of exposing a pitcher to mlb as a reliever prior to getting the chance as a starter. what we have been saying is that neither of us believe he will get used enough to make this worthwhile for his development. if mills will get regular usage then it doens't bother me one bit, i just don't think he will
There are 2 primary reasons for this
1) 7 man bullpen. it's difficult to get everyone regular work
2) Cito's history of bullpen usage.
I think Mills would get used like Valdez and just rot on the bench unless AA steps in. that's just going to create tension and should be avoided. It's also not good for his development. IF he's not going to play, then wait til September.
There should be lots of opportunity with this team. People keep writing Mills off because of other pitchers behind him in the depth chart. More competition means less guarantees and the player who pitches the best will get the shots (until big money skews the field.)

uglyone - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#214296) #

have you seen our bullpen this year?

92-93 - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#214299) #

Service time for an arm like Brad Mills really shouldn't be an issue. Besides that, the extra year of control has already been cleared; it's 22 days into a 182 day season. I completely agree that he should be our 7th RP, coming into low leverage situations and gobbling up innings for the team so somebody like Shawn Camp, who has been looking effective, doesn't need to.

TamRa - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#214308) #

I suppose this means Accardo takes over the closing role at Vegas.

Or Purcey...

On the discussion of using Mills, I think we're way too early to be putting this much thought into the thing. Consider the possibilities:

1. There are enough injuries, in either the rotation or the pen, that we get a chance to call him and use him in a significant role

2. We get a chance to trade him for some significant piece we need now or in the future (such as a solid high level 3B prospect)

3. Later in the season, after he's recovered a bit of his luster, (if he's lost any) the Jays get a chance to make a good deal for Scott Downs and Mills gets the call to be the second lefty in the 'pen (with Tallet or Carlson - if he gets himself righted - taking over Down's role)

4. Eveland continues downward to the point where the Jays have to pull the plug before Zep is ready and Mills would be the obvious choice to step into that spot (and given their relative ages, if Mills sticks for a while and Zep has to shake the rust off at AAA until the next vacancy turns up, it's not a huge problem)

Given all those highly plausable possibilities, I can't see why it should be a source of stress whether or not Mills get's called soon. If he keeps pitching this well and he hasn't gotten a call by early August THEN i'd be puzzling it over.

uglyone - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#214311) #

another plausible scenario....

5. Eveland continues to be a decent starter, Rzep comes back ready to go in 2 weeks, our bullpen continues to be a gaping festering wound, and Mills continues to be our best AAA pitcher.

China fan - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#214319) #

Not exactly fair or accurate to call the bullpen "a gaping festering wound" on the basis of two bad games. You seem to be pushing the panic button a little early. The bullpen was actually pretty good for the first 18 games of the season, with the exception of a couple bad Frasor performances. No reason to assume that the last two games are more significant than the previous 18 games.

China fan - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#214320) #

In fact, Eveland was as terrible as the bullpen yesterday, but you describe him as "a decent starter" and you describe the bullpen as "a gaping festering wound." Why so generous to Eveland and so nasty to the relievers?

Mike Green - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#214321) #

BBRef tells me that opponents are hitting .299/.372/.416 for the season against the pen, and that the pen has an ERA of 5.69 as compared with the rotation's 4.32 (the pen should be 1/3 to 1/2 a run lower). It's only 55 innings, but overall they were not good ones.

Gerry - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#214322) #

All the Fabio Castro fans might finally get to see him. Boston have called him up for tonight's game. Atchison has been sent down.

Chuck - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#214323) #

Eveland continues to be a decent starter, Rzep comes back ready to go in 2 weeks, our bullpen continues to be a gaping festering wound

I have much more confidence in the bullpen being decent than I do in Eveland showing any longterm success. I can't see him lasting in the rotation past the all-star break.

Magpie - Tuesday, April 27 2010 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#214331) #

I have much more confidence in the bullpen being decent than I do in Eveland showing any longterm success.

Me too - I basically have zero confidence that Eveland will have any longterm succes as a starter, and I won't be surprised if he fails to last through the Last Days of May in the rotation.

My secret hope is that Eveland can be the next Scott Downs...

TamRa - Wednesday, April 28 2010 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#214333) #

BBRef tells me that opponents are hitting .299/.372/.416 for the season against the pen, and that the pen has an ERA of 5.69 as compared with the rotation's 4.32

this is merely a set up for a massive regression. This is a sample size thing and there is NO WAY this is even in the bottom half of all bullpen, let alone at the very bottom, when the season is done.

scottt - Wednesday, April 28 2010 @ 06:21 AM EDT (#214336) #

this is merely a set up for a massive regression. This is a sample size thing and there is NO WAY this is even in the bottom half of all bullpen, let alone at the very bottom, when the season is done.

Maybe you can rephrase that. You mean the pen will improve over the year?

Possibly, but what if Frasor and Downs keep this up all year? Schoeneweis and Speier regressed quite a bit once they left the Jays.

Downs has lost 3 games in the span of a week.

TamRa - Wednesday, April 28 2010 @ 01:39 PM EDT (#214345) #

yes, they will improve.

Janssen's ERA is skewed by two bad apperances (one, really, that did the major damage to his numbers)

Camp has been almost perfect until Monday night

Take out Sunday's apperance and Downs' line is perfectly acceptable,

Accardo is gone now and likely, underuse was a big part of his problem anyway.

Frasor is the only one to really worry about and the odds he pitches all year and has an ERA of 9+ at the end of the year are longer than the odds that the Jays win the division.

So yeah, i think I can say with considerable confidence that the pen as a whole will get WAAAAAY better than it is. The collective sample size for so many players is TINY - 57.1 IP distributed over 7 guys is about 8 IP apiece, which is less than one complete game for a starter.

Hardly a valid sample to worry about.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 28 2010 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#214355) #

have we been watching the same bullpen?

There's been exactly two relievers who have been "good" so far this year (Gregg and Camp), and one who has been up and down (Janssen). The rest of the 'pen hasn't been just bad, it has been horrific. We have only 2 relievers with an ERA under 6.23. And the only reliever in the 'pen with a reliable track record is Scott Downs, and he's 34.

The bullpen has a 5.65era. A 1.60whip. They have 6 losses. A .789oops. I think there have been maybe 1 or 2 smooth games from the bullpen in our first 21 games.

"Gaping Festering Wound" is both fair and accurate.

As for the Eveland comments - after a dominating spring and 3 pretty sweet starts, I think we can forgive him one bad outing. And overall his numbers so far are more than satisfactory for a 5th starter. Expecting Eveland to never have a bad start is unfair to say the least. He certainly deserves a couple more outings before we think of replacing him.

By that point, likey Rzep will be ready to go. Sure, maybe Mills gets a shot ahead of Rzep - but that just means that Rzep could be used as reliever.

China fan - Wednesday, April 28 2010 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#214357) #

Uglyone, your apocalyptic rhetoric is absurd. Climb down from your suicidal perch and look at the numbers a little more calmly. You're describing Scott Downs as "horrific"? Really? Of his 11 outings this season, 7 were excellent. He's allowed only two walks and one home run this seaon. Only once has he allowed more than one run in an outing. He's pitched 7 near-perfect outings, out of 11, yet you want to call him "horrific"? And a "gaping and festering wound"? Are you sure there's not the tiniest bit of exaggeration there?

Casey Janssen has been even better: of his 9 outings so far, only 2 were bad. His ERA, until a couple of days ago, was a superb 1.17. And his won-loss record, even now, is 3-0. Yet you can't bring yourself to praise the guy because it would undermine your thesis, so you call him "up and down."

Sample sizes at this stage of the season are incredibly small. It only takes a couple of bad outings to inflate an ERA. Yet you are cherry-picking the ERA numbers that fit your thesis.

Basically only Frasor and Accardo fit your thesis of consistently poor performance this year. (Valdez pitched so rarely that he's not even worth considering.) And of those two, Accardo is gone. So there's only Frasor in the current bullpen who can be considered a true failure so far -- and he's got plenty of time to turn it around. (Or do you think the small sample of 2010 should outweigh everything we saw from him for the entire 2009 season?) Basically one pitcher of the current seven can be considered as evidence of your "horrific" and "gaping festering" theory. That's one of seven. Not enough to justify the apocalyptic rhetoric.

uglyone - Wednesday, April 28 2010 @ 10:37 PM EDT (#214361) #

I really don't see how you can accuse me of being the one being unreasonable here.

Our bullpen has been awful this year. There's really no way around it. When all but 2 of your relievers have ERAs well north of 6, there is something seriously wrong. I don't know how you can possibly look at a bullpen with 5/7 guys with eras oer 6, and say that "only frasor has been a problem". That seems kind of silly, to be honest.

And Downs hasn't been right from day one - even when he had a few clean outings to start, he was still struggling to miss bats and get his usual strikeouts. I think he's only had 3 or 4 clean outings out of 11 or 12 appearances so far. That is very bad.

The scary thing is that the only two guys who have been at all reliable so far, Gregg and Camp, are veterans with extremely spotty track records, with absolutely no assurances that they can keep up this kind of pitching going forward.

I don't know what else to say, really - our bullpen has been awful, and if we have a 24-25 year old arm like a Mills or Rzep in the minors doing very well in AAA with plenty of MLB and AAA innings under their belts with no room in the MLB rotation, I don't see why anyone would have a problem seeing one of them move to the MLB 'pen for at least the shortterm.

Especially since none of Gregg/Downs/Frasor/Camp/Tallet are longterm options in the 'pen anyways.

Magpie - Wednesday, April 28 2010 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#214362) #

On this one, let me come down... right smack dab in the middle.

I think "gaping, festering wound" is over the top because the pen is full of pitchers who were effective relief pitchers as recently as last season. It would be much more disturbing if the pen consisted of a whole bunch of guys who had never done anything in the majors (Gaston did have to cope with that type of pen back in 1995, when Ward, Cox, and Timlin all went down. He was left with Tony Castillo and five rookies.)

Nevertheless, with its 5.65 ERA coming into tonight,. the pen does rank 27th out of the 30 ML teams. It''s very early days, and 57.1 IPT isn't a lot of innings. I do expect it to improve. But that still ain't good.

China fan - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 03:26 AM EDT (#214366) #

Uglyone, if you're unsure about Scott Downs, you could easily look it up, or just refer to my last post, where I spelled it out. Downs has not had "three or four" clean outings this year. He has had 7 clean outings. In each of those outings, he allowed a maximum of one hit and no runs.

Look, I'm not arguing that the bullpen has been reliable all season -- obviously it hasn't been. I'm only saying that "horrific" is exaggerated. You can't judge a bullpen entirely by its ERA, because the ERA can be grossly inflated by a couple of bad games. Until the bad outings of Sunday and Monday, the bullpen wasn't too bad. Its ERA was inflated by a couple of bad games, and you've got to look beyond ERA to assess the performances of each pitcher over the whole season so far.

As for the issue of Brad Mills: I'm not connecting this issue to the bullpen's short-term performance. I'm not saying that Mills should stay in Las Vegas because the Jays bullpen is so powerful that it doesn't need any help. I'm saying that Mills is more valuable as a starter than a reliever; that he has shown in AAA that he can handle the starting duties; that he will probably get a chance in the major-league rotation within a month or two because of inevitable injuries or demotions; and that putting him in the bullpen might disrupt his growth as a starter (and I'm aware that Mike Green makes a strong and plausible case against the latter point, but I'm concerned about it anyway). To say that Mills should remain as a starter is not a defence of the Jays bullpen, it's an entirely separate question.

Anyway, what would you do? Demote Frasor and promote Mills to replace him? Frasor was fine as a seventh-inning and eighth-inning reliever in 2009, and it's a little premature to dump the guy. It would also destroy his trade value, and damage his free-agent value at the end of this season. And Mills wouldn't necessarily be suitable for the Frasor role in the bullpen. Would you demote Casey Janssen? On the basis of two bad performances, after seven excellent performances? That's not only premature, it would also demoralize the rest of the team, who would be constantly wondering whether Gaston has an itchy trigger finger to demote people after two bad performances.

scottt - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 06:44 AM EDT (#214367) #

Let's start with Downs. Counting innings is a bit misleading. If the guy come out and can't make an out, he's pitched 0 innings, right? Also, a clean outing in which you face only one batter is not that impressive, really. As you point out, Janssen is 3-0, but Downs is now 0-3 and he's lost those 3 games in the span of a week. He's second in the AL in HLD and in L. Some good outings, mostly the first 2 weeks, some awful ones, mostly this week.
His WHIP is at 1.38. Gregg's is 0.7 Camp's 1.11

Frasor has 5 clean outings and 5 bad ones. 3 saves, 1 loss and 2 blown saves. His WHIP is 2.77.

Janssen had 7 good outings and then 3 bad ones, the 3 last ones. His WHIP is 1.65.

What made this so bad is that these are the 3 guys most likely to pitch the 8th inning. Roenicke and Lewis were excellent last night but won't probably be pitching unless the Jays are losing.

The Jays have probably no choice but to stick with Downs/Frasor/Janssen even if it ain't pretty.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#214371) #

A propos of nothing. The D-Rays look like a great club right now, with the arrival of Price, Davis and Niemann to join Garza and Shields in a nasty rotation, backed up by a solid offence which can produce in a number of ways. Hellickson is ready anytime and Sonnanstine is in the bullpen, so it is very likely that they should be all right even if injuries strike. And yet, they struggle to creep over 10,000 in attendance.

Meanwhile, the O's are drawing 17,000 despite being vile on the field. While it is said that winning will bring the fans back, there is obviously more to it than that. Baseball is deeply imbedded in the culture in Baltimore, and it isn't in Tampa. Maybe that will change, but as of today, if one was looking for a comp for the 93 Expos, it wouldn't be the Jays but rather the D-Rays.

Finally, Arrieta is dealing for Norfolk and Tillman threw a no-hitter. With Matusz looking good on the big club, there is plenty of hope in Baltimore.

China fan - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#214373) #

Scottt, I mostly agree with you, and I was counting the outings by Downs, not the innings. He has 7 clean outings and 4 not-clean outings. He's second in the league in holds, as you point out, and his WHIP is not too bad. His season so far has not been great, but not "horrific" either -- which is my point.

Chuck - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#214379) #

Baseball is deeply imbedded in the culture in Baltimore

Culture certainly counts for a whole lot, doesn't it? I mean, look at Green Bay. Arguably the most devoted set of fans and yet if today GB didn't have a team, they would surely not be given one, so contrary are they to the blueprint of qualified homes for NFL teams.

Two things that I cannot fathom are (a) the state of Florida showing no interest in their MLB teams and (b) the city of Los Angeles still without an NFL team. We're not talking about selling hockey to deep south here. I just don't get it.

Chuck - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#214381) #

The D-Rays look like a great club right now

Absolutely. And they are fun to watch.

Their 5 starters have started all 21 games. Davis's ERA of 3.68 is the highest. Shields, at 28, is the oldest. Kazmir faded, fizzled and was sent packing, and is not at all missed.

Despite 5 relievers with ERAs in the 2's (and Howell yet to even pitch), I think the team could (a) use another quality reliever and (b) find a halfway meaty lefthanded bat to complement Burrell. Aybar is too often asked to fill that role and is unqualified (lifetime OPS of 734 vs RHP). Hank Blalock would be a better in-house option, but with the team already carrying Burrell, that would make two players with virtually no defensive value.

I guess I would add a (c): find either a better second baseman (making Zobrist the fulltime RF) or a RF against RHB (moving Zobrist to 2B). I imagine that Matt Joyce was slated for the RF platoon role and maybe the team will hang on with what they have until they get a sense of when Joyce is coming back and what shape he'll be in.

With Pena and Crawford heading out the door after this season, the team should be prepared to make some moves for a post-season push. On their limited budget, this opportunity won't come every year. Carpe diem.

Mike Green - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#214383) #

I guess they're convinced that Sean Rodriguez will hit, and they do have an internal option if he doesn't. Ideally, they'd have a left-handed hitting catcher who they felt comfortable with behind the plate for at least 70-80 games, because Navarro can't hit right-handed pitching. Maybe it is John Jaso, and maybe it isn't.

Replacing Crawford might not be too bad. Jennings moves into centerfield and Upton slides over. As for Carlos Pena, it might be possible to find a decent first baseman cheap. I agree though that the Rays should be players in the market in June and July.

92-93 - Thursday, April 29 2010 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#214393) #

The amazing thing about the Rays is that barring injury, they really don't even need to make trades because of their own depth. They have little need for a 2B considering that they have a righty (SRod) and lefty (Brignac) who can handle the position on nights they don't start Kapler in RF, and I've heard Maddon say they consider Rodriguez at 2nd and Zobrist in RF to be their best defensive alignment. CHONE certainly thinks Rodriguez could handle regular playing time, and those gaudy PCL stats suggest there's some thump in that bat. I guess they could add a LH power bat to platoon with Burrell, and somebody like Jack Cust would be the perfect fit. Should they experience some injuries on the pitching front, Sonnanstine could tide them over as a 5th starter if they weren't inclined to start top prospect Jeremy Hellickson's service clock, but all signs point to him being ready to join the MLB rotation. And obviously there's phenom Desmond Jennings waiting for his call, as well as Fernando Perez if the team decides they need another bench OF before they want to callup Jennings. The Rays bring a scary combination of speed, power, defense, and pitching to each game, and it will certainly be interesting to watch the AL East race unfold as we approach the trading deadline. It's a shame they don't have the fan base/resources to support such a fantastic system, because if a team like Toronto had their stacks of talent the sky would really be the limit.

uglyone - Friday, April 30 2010 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#214414) #

I find the most amazing thing about the Rays this year is this:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=tam&season=2010&seasonType=2&split=39&cat=avg&order=true&type=reg

With RISP:

Tampa Bay: 216ab, .338avg, .425obp, .574slg, .999ops
Opponents: 164ab, .159avg, .271obp, .244slg, .515ops

Obviously, their GM wisely invested his resources in CLUTCHINESS this offseason.

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