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It's the All-Star Break, and between now and the end of the month the Jays should be looking to obtain value on the trade market by moving certain players. John Buck is one of those players. But regardless of whether or not AA can find a deal that gives the Jays better value than they can reasonably expect from the draft pick compensation Buck may bring, I think J.P. Arencibia should be brought up as soon as possible.

Look, it's clear that from an offensive standpoint JPA doesn't have anything left to learn in the minors. I'm sure you know the stats already, but I'll highlight a few just to drive the point home: 25 homers, 26 doubles, a 1.030 OPS. He's even hitting better away from the friendly confines of Las Vegas.

Service time should not be an issue here. If the Jays want to delay Arencibia's free agency by a year, they would have to wait until a couple months into next season, and that is just way too long when he's ready now.

Defense should also not be an issue. Teams often cite defensive development as a reason for holding prospects back, but the Jays' recent slide has all but dashed their playoff hopes. They are not in a pennant race, so if JPA is going to struggle defensively, there's no reason not to do it at the major league level. Plus, various reports I've seen this year have his defense at various levels, none of which are "terrible"... usually somewhere between average and slightly below. Apologies for the lack of a citation - perhaps Marc or Gerry can weigh in.

Of course, the most important reason to promote Arencibia (since the above justifications are more "why not" than "why") is for his own development. JPA doesn't come without his weaknesses; notably, his K/BB ratio has never been great, and at the moment his defense is probably average at best. Nothing is so bad that he needs more minor league seasoning, though, so the combination of his readiness with the Jays' position in the standings make this the right time for a promotion. The sooner he's promoted, the sooner he'll start learning on the steepest curve that exists, and the farther along he'll be when the time comes for this team to compete. And if John Buck doesn't get moved, well, I don't really care, because John Buck is not part of the future, and JPA should be getting most of the at bats from here on in.

FREE ARENCIBIA!

P.S. Anyone watch the home run derby?
TDIB 13 July 2010: Free Arencibia! | 30 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Kelekin - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#218239) #
I found it really boring this year.  It needed Jose Bautista and Ichiro!

And I think AA does know about Arencibia's situation by this point in time, but he just might not be able to get rid of Buck.  I don't know, I know we'll see him soon.  I have faith.  And I want Jeroloman in AAA. =)

Chuck - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 07:07 AM EDT (#218241) #

but he just might not be able to get rid of Buck

You don't think there'd be demand for Buck? Surely the Red Sox would be interested.

Forkball - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 08:48 AM EDT (#218242) #
Buck is right on the fringe of a B compensation player so they might be more likely to trade him knowing that they might not get any compensation in the off-season.

Tigers?

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#218243) #
"FREE ARENCIBIA" might be taken the wrong way when your club is selling at the All-Star break.  I guess that the alternative- "all we are saying is give Arencibia a chance" doesn't work.  The original "FREE JOHAN SANTANA" fits perfectly with the Specials' tune "Free Nelson Mandela". 

The O's have now brought up Arrieta and Tillman to join Matusz in the rotation.  Felix Pie is back, Brian Roberts has started his rehab assignment and should be back in late July.  They just swept the Rangers.  They are going to be a lot better the second half than they were in the first, but they'll probably end up with a poor enough record to have good draft position.  I doubt somehow that they are unhappy about that.  Attendance is not bad considering the poor performance of the club. 

Denoit - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#218245) #

Following along with the trade speculations. MLB trade rumors is reporting that the Jays are open to anything, and are very willing to deal Downs, Frasor and Gregg. There has also been speculation that they would have been a third team in a Cliff Lee deal and is open to 3 or 4 team deals. Sounds like Anthopolous is going to be active the next few weeks. Anyone outside the young core it wouldnt surprise me to see them shipped out if there is a legitmate offer.

Dave Till - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#218248) #
Arencibia has lots of power, and doesn't draw walks. Nope, he's not going to fit in on this club. :-)

I'm totally okay with the idea of trading Buck for a spare part or two and bringing J.P. up. I'm not so sure about trading Downs and Gregg - somebody's got to pitch those late innings, and blown saves wreak havoc on confidence and attendance. Frasor, on the other hand, isn't really in the Jays' plans right now, but I doubt he'd fetch much in a trade.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#218251) #
If there's a Fred McGriff or Jeff Bagwell equivalent available for the latest version of Dale Murray or Larry Anderson, it would have my endorsement.  If someone would part with the new Placido Polanco for the latest version of Ugie, that would be OK too.  So if another club has a burning desire for Downs, Frasor, Camp or Gregg, I think that you have to find how deep is their love.
ayjackson - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#218252) #

Cause we're living in a world of fools.

(I'm ashamed.)

92-93 - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#218253) #
Although Lyle is hitting .303/.373/.500 with 8 HRs in 53 games since May 14th he still isn't hitting LHP, so even if Buck and/or Overbay aren't traded by the deadline you can work Arencibia into the playing time rotation as the backup C by giving him DH starts vs. LHP with Lind at 1B. This kid is tailor-made for a Clarence offense.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#218254) #
Book suggestion: Cardboard Gods, based on the web site of the same name.

The author was born in 1968 so if you are of a similar vintage and grew up collecting baseball cards, his story might resonate with you. It's basically an autobiography using specific baseball cards as thematic props to propel the narrative of his story.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#218259) #
Overbay? Doesn't much matter who, actually...

VS. LEFT

BATTING
NAME    GP    AB    R   H    2B   3B   HR    TB   RBI  BB    SO   SB   CS    BAVG    OBP    SLG    OPS
John Buck    23    50    5   20    5    0    4    37   15    1    13    0    0    .400    .404   .740   1.144
Travis Snider  11    20    4    7    3    0    0    10    1    2    7    0    1    .350    .409   .500    .909
Fred Lewis    33    71    8   19    4    1    0    25    4    4    20    1    2    .268    .307   .352    .659
Jose Bautista  31    65   11   15    3    0    5    33   12   10    13    0    1    .231    .346   .508    .854
Alex Gonzalez  34    75   12   16    8    0    4    36    8    2    20    0    0    .213    .234   .480    .714
Lyle Overbay   41    78    7   15    3    0    2    24    6    3    21    0    0    .192    .232   .308    .539
Vernon Wells   35    70    5   13    2    0    3    24    7   11    13    0    1    .186    .296   .343    .639
John McDonald  11    22    3    4    2    0    2    12    3   0     1    0    0    .182    .182   .545    .727
Edwin Encarnacion  19    31    3    5    1    0    1    9    4   10     6    0    0    .161    .357   .290    .647
Jose Molina    13    25    1    4    0    0    0    4    0    2     8    0    0    .160    .222   .160    .382
Aaron Hill    34    69    3    8    2    0    2    16    4   10    11    0    0    .116    .228   .232    .460
Adam Lind    44    87    3   10    1    0    1    14    6    3    35    0    0    .115    .152   .161    .313
Chuck - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#218260) #
I wonder if Theo Epstein is looking at his broken catchers, his broken outfielders, his broken relief pitchers and his maybe broken third baseman and thinking that the Jays have a ton of parts -- Buck, Bautista, Downs, Frasor, Gregg -- that could help him paper over his problems. Hell, if Beltre is worse off than feared, you could even make him take Overbay as well, moving Youkilis to third base.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#218261) #
I hadn't realized how bad Adam Lind's line against LHP was this year.  In prior years, he has had more or less typical platoon differentials.  This suggests an adverse (intentional or accidental) mechanical change.  Everyone needs a holiday, but you'd think that Lind could benefit from some work during the All-Star break. 
Denoit - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#218262) #

I'm not so sure about trading Downs and Gregg - somebody's got to pitch those late innings

This is just my opinion, but I wouldn't mind seeing Purcey get some more late innings, as well I would like to see Magnuson given an chance, I know he hasnt pitched above AA but his numbers are pretty good. Tim Collins might be a little young, but maybe a september callup and give him a few innigns just too see what you have wouldnt be all that bad. Plus they still have Accardo, and Janssen. I honestly think they could get by without Downs and Gregg the remainder of the year. They may not be as solid, but at least the organization will have a better idea of what they have going forward. Plus they may get an arm or two back in any trade they make.

Chuck - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#218263) #

Overbay? Doesn't much matter who, actually...

Just pulling the following diagnosis from the appropriate orifice... I wonder if opposition LHP are successfully counteracting the "open your hips and swing for the moon" strategy by consistently keeping the ball away. Maybe the Blue Jay RHB are not counteracting that by going the other way.

Rich - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#218266) #
"Arencibia has lots of power, and doesn't draw walks"

Not so true anymore.  Last year JPA walked 26 times in 466 AB's.  This year he has 25 in 301 ABs.  That's the same # as Wallace has in 24 fewer ABs and Wallace has always had a reputation for patience.
92-93 - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#218267) #
I actually thought I noticed Vernon going oppo quite a bit the last few weeks, albeit without much success. Lots of hard hit balls to the right side though. And Boston isn't the only team that could benefit from a Blue Jays package, I think there's quite a few. St. Louis and Philadelphia immediately come to mind as teams that could use a Gonzalez/RP combo, and maybe even the Yankees would consider a Buck/Downs trade. These next 2 weeks should get very interesting to follow.
Dave Till - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#218269) #
I honestly think they could get by without Downs and Gregg the remainder of the year.

For sure - they're out of the pennant race, so it doesn't really matter whether they blow any leads or not. But the Jays will need pitchers at least as good as Downs or Gregg in 2011 (unless they're going really long term and are not planning on competing until 2012 or 2013 or 2017 or something). Purcey has looked useful in a short relief role, but I'm not sure I'm comfortable with him and Camp as the eighth and ninth inning stoppers.

Totally unrelated to this: I didn't realize, until today, that Jose Bautista is leading the American League in both home runs and walks. (Well, he's tied for the lead in walks.) Earl Weaver would have loved him.
finch - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#218271) #

It also mentions that AA wants to be as creative as possible, such as being a 3rd team involved in a deal.

In the comments section, some mention trading some of our young pitching depth (Zach Stewart & Chad Jenkins) in order to receive a position prospect. In an example, they saw a potential trade involving The Angels and Brewers, with Toronto involved. This is what was proposed

Angels get:
1B Prince Fielder (from MIL)

Brewers get:
LHP Trevor Reckling (from LAA)
LHP Tyler Skaggs (from LAA)
RHP Chad Jenkins (from TOR)
RHP Zach Stewart (from TOR)

Toronto gets:
2B/OF/3B Brett Lawrie (from MIL)
OF Peter Bourjos (from LAA)

 

Question is...would you give up young pitching depth for a top prospect, who hasn't proved they can do it at the Major League level?

Gerry - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#218279) #

So Toronto gives up a pitching prospect who might end up as a reliever (Stewart) and a pitching prospect who hasn't dominated anything yet (Jenkins), for one of the top 50 prospects in baseball and a highly rated outfielder.

I would do it in a minute but I would expect to get laughed off the phone.  If you replaced Jenkins with Rzepczynski I am still not sure if you have enough.  Pitching prospects are rare but they also blow up frequently.

Jdog - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#218280) #
Would love to get Lawrie. I agree with Gerry though, it would take more than one pitching prospect. Would probably take one of the young arms who is currently in the majors(Cecil, Rzep)or on the cusp like a Drabek. I would do a Drabek for Lawrie trade if they had interest in that. Peter Bourjos does not interest me much. I'd prefer to hold onto Stewart as I think he is a little undervalued right now. Jenkins with what he has done so far is not going to be worth a lot, he's be a minor piece in my opinion.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#218281) #
We don't give up much in that scenario... Lawrie is probably the Brewers top prospect and Bourjos is near the top... while both Jenkins and Stewart have had their warts this season. If I were Toronto, I'd do the deal in a heartbeat, which probably means the other teams would not.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#218287) #
Although Lyle is hitting .303/.373/.500 with 8 HRs in 53 games since May 14th he still isn't hitting LHP

I don't have ANY doubt that this is true BUT...you haven't found a stat source where you can combine splits have you (i.e. v.LHP+date range or whatever)??

92-93 - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#218288) #

If that comment read like I was trying to say Lyle isn't hitting LHP since May 14th, I didn't mean it that way. I was merely saying he's been great over the last 2 months but over the course of the season he hasn't hit LHP. I'd be curious as well to hear how he's handling LHP since he got hot, if anyone knows how to find that.

Posting trade ideas from MLBTR here is a real waste of time. Milwaukee is getting absolutely raped in that deal.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#218289) #
I hadn't realized how bad Adam Lind's line against LHP was this year.

The team may as well have let Shaun Marcum, at least, hit for himself. It may actually have been an improvement....
Magpie - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#218296) #
I'd be curious as well to hear how he's handling LHP since he got hot, if anyone knows how to find that.

Since May 14, Overbay is 9-40 (.225) against LHP, with 3 2b, 1 HR, and 2 bb. He's whiffed 12 times. And that's 7-19 from May 14 through June 9, and 2-21 since then.

There've been 13 games started by an oppostion LHP - Price and Pettite twice, Vargas, Saunders, Francis, Zito, Garcia, Hamels, Moyer, Laffey, and Lester. Not a lot of stiffs in there. Price was the guy he liked hitting against - he went 4-6 with a couple of doubles.
TamRa - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 11:20 PM EDT (#218297) #
how do you do that? surely you are not hand-counting through every box score?



Magpie - Tuesday, July 13 2010 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#218299) #
Old school, man....
ayjackson - Wednesday, July 14 2010 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#218307) #

Hey Mags,

This current version of the Jays has a drastic difference between their slugging and their on-base average - perhaps a historic difference.  It would be interesting to compare this year's version of the Jays with other high-slug, low-walk teams of yore to see if this is a historic season and to see what the impact on runs scored for those teams has been.  Can you put something in the hopper?

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 14 2010 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#218309) #
You really cannot measure similar teams to the Jays by the difference between slugging and OBP.  It is very, very unusual for a club to have more than 100 points difference and those that do are usually offensive powerhouses like the 2003 Red Sox which went .289/.360/.491.  What you could look for is clubs that are 1st or 2nd in the league in slugging and 1st or 2nd last in OBP. 
TDIB 13 July 2010: Free Arencibia! | 30 comments | Create New Account
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