Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Question of the Day: Does 82 matter at all?

Question of the Day: Does 82 matter at all?

As I write this sentence, the Jays (81-76) are sitting squarely on a season total of 81 wins, which is exactly half of the schedule's 162 games, which means they cannot, in any scenario finish below .500 and label 2010 as a "losing" season. Um ... hooray?

So, the question today is this ... does it matter to you at all ... should it matter to you at all ... does/should it matter to players, to retiring manager Cito,, to the fanbase, that the team win at least one of its final five to finish at least 82-80, a "winning" record?

Obviously, nobody wants to close the year on a six-game skid, so there's that. But a fourth-place finish in what is clearly the toughest division in baseball, where two teams are making the playoffs and a third might end up with a better record than three other playoff teams? So, overall, our Question of the Day ... does that 82nd win matter? Should it?

Posted by Mick Doherty on Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:01 PM EDT.

Question of the Day: Does 82 matter at all? | 39 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

mathesond - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#223253) #

It should matter to the players, and not just in a "point of pride" sense. After all, they're getting paid, and winning is a lot more fun than losing. As for me, I'd like to see them go 86-76, draft position be danged.

Matthew E - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#223254) #

Winning is better than losing, full stop.

82 wins isn't anything to write home about, but it's better than 81 wins*. Even better would be 83 wins, or 84, or 85, or 86. The more wins they get, the better I like it.

--

* By 1.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#223257) #

You have to think that Anthopoulos believes this too. The Escobar trade was curious because it was likely to result in an increase in the team's win total for 2010 (and a poorer draft position) at a possible cost in 2013 and later when Escobar will be expensive and Collins/Pastornicky will not be.

Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#223258) #

Got to play them. Might as well win them.

Not caring about wins and losses... just a very bad idea. There's bad karma involved. If you don't care about them, they won't care about you.

MatO - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#223260) #

In between games I wouldn't mind them losing thus getting a better draft position and not risk losing a first pick if they sign a FA but once the game starts I want them to win.

China fan - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#223262) #

Mike, that's an interesting point about the Escobar trade. It might be evidence that Anthopolous thinks the Jays have a possible shot at being contenders in 2011 or 2012, when Escobar is not too expensive, rather than the 2013 or 2014 scenario that some have touted.

sweat - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#223264) #

I think it also has something to do do with how highly valued a quality shortstop is. AA saw him at his lowest value, and will likely move him when he is at a higher value(and when Hech is ready, no doubt).

Flex - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#223267) #

At this stage it looks like the Jays are a lock to make the top 15. I don't think they'll be signing any Type A's for next year.

ramone - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#223268) #

"At this stage it looks like the Jays are a lock to make the top 15. I don't think they'll be signing any Type A's for next year."

I don't think they were going to no matter if they finised in or out of the top 15. AA said last night that he thinks he'd prefer to fill the club's needs via trade than free agency and he also stated that going forward the team will let him know when it's time to add the remaining pieces, to me it sounds like he's going to continue to be patient before spending any big bucks on the open market.

scottt - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#223270) #

I'll never forget they finished 4th. I won't remember the number of wins. What was it last year again?

So no, it matters not in the least.

It matters to the starting pitchers and the manager of course. The hitters are probably more interested in boosting their numbers than the win total although it's almost the same, I don't expect to see a player injuring himself on a dangerous play at this state.

Magpie - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#223276) #

I'll never forget they finished 4th. I won't remember the number of wins. What was it last year again?

It was 75!

That's kind of interesting, because I'm the exact opposite. I can give you the W-L record of every season they've ever played, but most of the time I'm not sure where in the standings they finished up. My own DNA seems to recognize only two spots: first and not-first!

Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 29 2010 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#223288) #

I'm like scottt, I can always recall the order of finish perfectly well. That is probably because in my experience any order of finish other than Yankees/Red Sox/Jays/O's/Rays has been a great historical event.

I can only remember the precise number of wins when it deviates wildly from expectations. This year, it'll be 84 or whatever and I'll remember it forever. In 2003 it was 86. In 2004 it was 67. In 2006 they finished second, which was unexpected, with 87. Every other year this past decade, I have no clue.

John Northey - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#223295) #

The wins do matter in the respect it is easier to improve by 10 wins than by 20. For 2011 and beyond we all know the Jays need to be a 95 win team to win (or at least have to plan like that). So going from 85 to 95 would be easier than from 75 to 95.

Next year the Jays would need to add 10-13 wins to make the playoffs. That would be equal to two all-star level players, maybe 3. If Hill & Lind recover to 2009 levels (which is very possible) that covers 2 of the slots. Snider and/or Escobar could combine to equal the third. However, we will probably lose a bit at catcher and RF as, even if they both return, Buck & Bautista won't be this good in 2011. Third base is the most obvious spot to improve and there is a free agent (type A of course) out there potentially (assuming Beltre doesn't pick up his player option).

The rotation should be better as I figure it is safe to say Cecil/Morrow/Rzep/Litsch and Drabek will be better in 2011 than 2010 (all have ERA+'s sub 100). Shawn Hill will be available from day one as well. On the flip side, Downs & Frasor will probably be gone. On the good side also gone will be Tallet (I hope) and no 44 2/3 IP from Eveland.

Lots of areas for hope that the extra 10-13 wins will be there. But not enough hope to cover 15-20 if that was what was needed. An obvious area to improve (third) helps as well.

Yes, this will be an interesting off-season.

Jonny German - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#223296) #

Had a look over the season stats to see what individual milestones the players might be hoping to reach in the last 4 games and there isn't much of note. Wells needs 2 walks to 50, Bautista needs 1 RBI to 120, 1 XBH to 90, 1 walk to 100. Nothing else stands out for significant round numbers for individuals. For the team it'd be very nice to get 3 more home runs for 250.

It'd be sweet for Marcum to pitch a 12-inning complete game to reach 200 IP, but I already think it's a little odd that for all the caution regarding arm mileage on this team there's been no restraint on the guy who pitched 16 innings last year. Guess it's worked out fine.

The most signficant individual performances remaining will be the starts from Hill and Rzepczynski, not for what they mean to this year's stats but for the data they provide towards the starting rotation competition for 2011.

bpoz - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#223302) #

I like the wins even if they mean nothing.

Concerning Pitching in 2011:-

I hope Drabek gets a ML win soon. If he starts off 0-2/3 next year thats 5 or 6 losses with no wins. I would hate to see him lose confidence.

IMO in ST 2010 B Walton spoke about how he was going to prepare all his pitchers. To me he clearly said that it was going to be a problem, because he had too many good/ deserving pitchers. Our Opening Day rotation, I believe got their fair(?) chance. 1st Start 35? pitches,2nd/50?,3rd75?, etc somehow. The 1st starts of ST allow for lots of work for everyone. Then you have to trim guys,because of rain outs, increasing pitch counts and use B & ss games.

IMO with 4 guaranteed spots barring trades & injuries, the 5th spot will not have a fair competition. Zep/Drabek & others will compete for season start #5, the losers gets Vegas. Litch may or may not be completely healed.I expect AA to do another Morrow type trade or 2 for an out of favor(Hi ceiling) SP.

Tallet earned the 4th spot in 09 and ate up ST innings. Zep's injury eliminated him, and Cecil's healed fast enough for him to be considered. Eveland & Valdez were potential talent that AA did not want to be lost. I know Eveland ate up ST innings at the end.
Unless spots are opened up by injuries or outgoing trades, IMO there will be a problem because we have too many good candidates for too few openings. I respectfully submit Bob MacGowan's praise for Zep's 9 Ks of the NYY in a row, he seemed quite impressed.

Chris DH - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#223303) #

I always focus on draft position. If the Jays arent going to make the playoffs, I am always checking out the standings to see where they may pick in the upcoming draft.

But with that being said, as Magpie suggests, when I am watching/attending the games, draft position be damned, I want them to win. Especially against the likes of the Yankees and RedSox. For some reason it seems my bloodpressure rises when the Jays are losing to these two teams. My buddy and I always make sure to attend at least on Yankee and RedSox game per year and both were great wins by the Jays in 2010. Last night and the come-from-behind win by against Papelbon a few months ago. Wont forget either one of them for a while.

And besides a pyschological goal for the players isnt it one for the fans as well? I mean, I cant imagine being a fan of the Orioles, Royals or Pirates. Consistently losing and ususally by a lot. Very, very depressing.

China fan - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#223313) #

.....The most signficant individual performances remaining will be the starts from Hill and Rzepczynski.....

I'm not sure if Zep's start is confirmed yet. The Jays official website has the probable pitchers for the Twins series as: Hill, Romero, Marcum, TBA. The TBA is the final game of the season. It would be logical that Zep would get this start, and I hope he does. His last start certainly gave us some long-overdue hope that Zep is returning to his 2009 form. Remember when he seemed to be neck-and-neck with Cecil for best young pitcher in the system?

By the way, anyone know why Scott Richmond wasn't called up in September? He did well at Las Vegas, was sent to New Hampshire to help out in the playoffs, and then disappeared. Most observers expected him to be among the September reinforcements in Toronto, but he never arrived. Any information on what happened?

ayjackson - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#223314) #

Two possibilities on Richmond that I can think of:

1. With all the injury trouble, they thought it best to just rest his arm.

2. Did he join Team Canada?

3. They didn't want any more players up.

(okay, that's three)

Mike Green - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#223315) #

Another decision that has to be taken this off-season concerns Aaron Hill's options. The provisions according to Cot's are:

08:$0.41M, 09:$2.59M, 10:$4M, 11:$5M, 12:$8M club option, 13:$8M club option, 14:$10M club option
club may decide to exercise all 3 options before 2011 season
after 2011 season, club may exercise only 2012 and 2013 options

One would guess that the club would wait until after 2011, and would forego the 2014 option.

ayjackson - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#223316) #

The fact that they're already talking new contract with Hill is evidence I think that they're not picking it up this season.

Gerry - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#223319) #

AA said on TV that the Jays have until opening day 2011 to decide on Hill's options so they might wait until they see Hill in spring training to decide.

China fan - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#223320) #

......The fact that they're already talking new contract with Hill.....

Wait, they're trying to persuade Aaron Hill to accept a new contract? Must have missed that -- do you have a source? If it's true, it's quite significant.

TamRa - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#223321) #

Talking new contract?

TamRa - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#223322) #

Mike Green - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#223323) #

AA said on TV that the Jays have until opening day 2011 to decide on Hill's options so they might wait until they see Hill in spring training to decide.

That makes sense, Gerry.

DaveB - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#223326) #

Winning always matters and I am enjoying how the Jays have played the last month. What a difference over last year. The subtler issue of development vs. proven performance is endlessly debated, but with the team guaranteed to finish above .500, no hope of finishing below 15th overall and Buck having reached his 20 HR milestone, I would like to see JPA get at least a couple of starts in the final series.

Snider is on an 11-game hitting streak, by far his career high and third best I believe of any Jay this season. He has a chance to match or better the 14-game hitting streaks of Wells and Lind (I think). Whether or not his streak continues, it's a nice finish for him and should give him a positive outlook for next year.

It's interesting to see AA's comment on being more likely to pursue trades rather than free agents. Perhaps he was stating the obvious but I have had some hope the team might go after Victor Martinez as a 70/30 first baseman/catcher (or catcher/1B if JPA is not ready for prime time). A solid bat and OBP guy with flexibility from 2-5 in the batting order. Lind's ability to play 1B and JPA's true potential as an everyday catcher are the two biggest lineup questions for next year IMO, and Martinez would at least guarantee a solution at one of the positions and help out at the other. Encarnacion is a weak link but there is still some ability there and in any event the next 3B might already be on the roster (Hill). The Arizona League starts in a couple weeks and it will be interesting to see if Hechevarria plays some second base as a possible precursor to Hill moving to third.

If a high profile FA is out of the question, then I could see the Jays being interested in trading for someone like Gaby Sanchez or the Marlins' younger and perhaps better 1B prospect, Logan Morrison. Maybe "wishful thinking" trade and free agency speculation is a good topic for a separate post.

ayjackson - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#223328) #

do you have a source

my ass, basicly. I don't think they're actually talking contract, but AA has mentioned a couple times now that they don't have to be slaves to the option, they can go to Hill and say we're open to do something else over the next three or four years. To me, that's an indication that management is already considering other options to picking up the three year one before next season.

As for a source, it's my ears....or my dreams. Seriously, am I the only one who's hearing these things?

jw - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#223329) #

Wait, they're trying to persuade Aaron Hill to accept a new contract? Must have missed that -- do you have a source? If it's true, it's quite significant.

It was during one of the game broadcasts (so unfortunately no link to give), I think it may have been the radio broadcast during one of the Sportsnet One games this week. Alex didn't say they were trying to get Hill a new contract, he was saying that missing the 2014 option isn't a huge deal because they will always have the ability to negotiate a new contract to sweep all this away anyways. It wasn't saying that they were in the process of doing so, just that it was an option in the future.

Kasi - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#223336) #

That Travis Snider guy? He's pretty good. Love how he's hit well off of both Liriano and CC lately. He is hitting good pitchers. In the game tonight great hustle on the infield hits, and then crushes a bomb to cap the game.

AWeb - Thursday, September 30 2010 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#223337) #

Snider is showing why we shouldn't evaluate the season until it's actually over - after bottoming out on the 15th at .236/.290/.416 (OPS 706), five homers later, he's up to .780 or so, which is a lot better. Still power-heavy, but that's picking nits at this point. Bautista showed us that these hot streaks in Septmeber aren't meaningless noise every time. Bautista also showed us how hard he can hit a Neshek pitch with the bases loaded...I think that one might've gone upper deck at the Dome too.

So the Jays have 253 HRs this year. The alltime record is 264, it's actually in play with three games left. There are no words to express how crazy you would have seemed predicting this in April. Does anyone know what the top 5 team seasons look like? The Jays are probably there already I would think.

So yeah, I'm enjoying the wins. Draft position, aside from the top few spots, isn't much for the Jays, and they don't seem like they are in the hunt for Type-A free agents in the off-season. And if they are, giving up a few draft picks isn't the end of the world - it's not even a huge concern to me. AA has shown he can trade for prospects already.

TamRa - Friday, October 01 2010 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#223342) #

the top 4 as of tonight:

264
260
257
253

TamRa - Friday, October 01 2010 @ 01:29 AM EDT (#223344) #

Snider is showing why we shouldn't evaluate the season until it's actually over - after bottoming out on the 15th at .236/.290/.416 (OPS 706), five homers later, he's up to .780 or so, which is a lot better.

lots of fun in Snider's numbers.

He's now 6th among AL left fielders (with at least 300 PA) in OPS at .783
He has exactly 81 games now and hit counting stats pro-rate to
40 doubles, 28 homers, 64 RBI (hitting mostly first and ninth) and 12 SB

In his last 62 games he's hit .301 - .326 - .533 - .859 (though only 10 walks in that time) and just for S&G, the counting stats over those 61 games pro-rate to 47 doubles and 31 homers.

Of course, that disguses the 38 games he spent struggling (.617 OPS) after he came back from AA, but Wells spent two months accumulating a .665 OPS (50 games) and had a 30 game stretch with a .718 OPS so we can acknowledge that most every hitter gonna go through a slump like that.

bpoz - Saturday, October 02 2010 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#223422) #

IMO we have not seen everything regarding AA's methods.

I have formed a few sort of vague opinions and interpretations about AA's MO.
1) He says 96 wins are needed in the AL East to contend. So if he says some year XXXX we will contend then I will believe that XXXX is a contending year.
If he does not say that BUT he signs an expensive FA then I will also believe he believes that we will contend. Because I interpret expensive FAs are only/mainly coming when his conclusion is we are a contender.
2) I believe he said that JB had "not as good numbers" on the road, so he was not rushing to offer a long term deal right away, just in case the road JB was the real JB. He says that he has time to wait until the 2011 All Star break to decide. So he is cautious. Also EVERYONE is talking about JB's future so IMO while he prefers to work without talking to the media JB's season is too spectacular for him to say nothing.
Based on this type of caution IMO exercising player contract options would be (my thinking) eg A Hill... He may only want the 2009 A Hill because in 2012 he could have Hill,A Heck & U Escobar for 2 positions (SS,2B), I don't know about 3B but he may find cheaply an A Gon veteran 3B. And he only has to speak specifically (publicly) if he cannot avoid it, just give a philosophical answer. IMO he always seems to look at the $ usage & $ long term complications.

I try to figure AA out and I am sure I will be wrong quite often. I find that he is thinking many steps ahead and so I cannot keep up. Like maybe in Dec we have nothing at some position like maybe 1st,3rd & closer then in late Jan something very good is acquired that came with no prior clues. Or even ST.

AWeb - Saturday, October 02 2010 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#223424) #

I don't think Anthopolous will be dumb enough to declare a year a "contending year" in advance. One or two major pitching injuries in March can end those chances pretty quick, and then the media will be all over it. I agree that we should look to his behaviour to determine whether he thinks the team is ready to contend, not his statements. The mythical "5 year plan" haunting the last GM, even if he may not have said it. And another win makes me happy- 84 matters, now I'm hoping for 85 and 86.

Any thoughts on which team(s) people are cheering for this year. I'd say the Phillies are an obvious choice, given the banner on this site, but the Reds have a possible MVP from Canada. The Braves/Padres/Giants, I'm just hoping for a three way tie. Rays, Yankees, Twins, Rangers - I'm kind of hoping for the Rangers by default in the AL.

TamRa - Saturday, October 02 2010 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#223443) #

1. Phillies
2. If not the Phillies, then the Reds for Votto (though I'm not Canadian) but more so for Rolen (who I still like, despite the assumptions about him)
3. Whoever is playing the Yankees.

Nick Holmes - Sunday, October 03 2010 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#223507) #

My favourite numbers for this year:

Rays 42-30
Jays 39-33
Yanks 38-34
Sox 37-35
O's 24-48

That's the record within the division.
The Jays have something to build on there.

Mike Green - Sunday, October 03 2010 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#223511) #

At this point, Zep's career ERA is 4.32 in 125 innings, with 15 homers, 58 walks and 117 strikeouts. That is one fine 5th or 6th starter.

earlweaverfan - Sunday, October 03 2010 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#223532) #

At this point, Zep's career ERA is 4.32 in 125 innings, with 15 homers, 58 walks and 117 strikeouts. That is one fine 5th or 6th starter.

So if the lead competitors for 5th starter in 2011 and 2012 involves a combination of Zep, Hill, Drabek, Stewart in the first tier (as measured by their popularly ultimate upside), followed by a second tier of Richmond, Litsch, Mills, and even Ray or Reyes; and if it turns out that at least a couple of those could end up in long or medium roles in the pen (say, Zep, Hill, Mills, or Richmond) and one of these could turn into the closer of the future (Stewart), then our Jays are sitting pretty indeed! (I say that having paid all due obeisance to the baseball gods, to keep our pitchers safe from harm).

When AA does decide that the time has come to go for it, I would not be surprised if he acted to trade, say, Cecil to go after those top of the heap position players, people cut in the mold of an Alomar and a Molitor

bpoz - Monday, October 04 2010 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#223540) #

I hope I am not splitting hairs, but I am judging things from best/worst case scenario.

1) Our 39-33 record against the Al East is very good until you remove Baltimore. Last 6 games 3-3. I see Baltimore as being much stronger next year ie Not Weaker.
Concerning Zep
1)I see a very large negative to Zep's numbers this year.
He was injured in ST and had to pitch against players that were in mid season form. But on the positive side his last 4 starts were his best and they were very good.
2) Other positives IMO he made 12 starts 6 against good teams 3NYY,2Min & 1Tex. He is also a strikeout pitcher 8 in a row against NYY. Is he also a strong ground ball pitcher?
3) On an absolute scale evaluation is he a #2/3 type SP potentially. I would guess he is capable of a +500 yearly record, total IP as much as Marcum, good "quality starts" numbers and a sub 400 ERA.
So he looks more ML ready as the #5 than Drabek who should have some growing pains before he reaches his ceiling which is very much higher.
2010's #5 slot cost us some wins. 2011's #5 should be much better any way you slice IMO.

One last thing!! This has befuddled me, I simply cannot figure the math out. The AL East seems to always win the wild card. There are 3 very strong teams in the AL East, the East plays each other 72 times (44% of schedule), if there were 4 or 5 very strong AL East teams are there enough outside the division games to still win the wild card.
This year 4 teams were over 500 at the expense of Baltimore I am guessing, Um! did Bal win the season against anyone?
So 36 wins or 50% for each team. Is it realistic for 5 strong AL East teams to exist in about 3 years time?

Question of the Day: Does 82 matter at all? | 39 comments | Create New Account

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