Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - 3 April 2011: Hello, This Is the Minneapolis Police

3 April 2011: Hello, This Is the Minneapolis Police

The party is over. If you'll all just grab your stuff and leave, there won't be any hassle. The party's been closed, it's – the party is over with. Grab your stuff and go, and nobody goes to jail.

Jays 6, Twins 1. The Blue Jays’ run differential now stands at 19-4. The good teams don’t win the close games, they avoid them. So far, so good.

Friday night was almost perfect: a raucous sellout crowd, nice ceremonies for Jose Bautista and the Hall of Fame class, a four-run first inning rally made out of two singles and an E4, a big day for J.P. Arencibia, four longballs, and a strong showing from Ricky Romero. The only way Opening Day could’ve been any better would be if we weren’t sitting right in front of a row full of bros yelling vicious catcalls and hysterically stupid prop bets, or if I hadn’t been directly behind a guy who stood up for innings at a time talking on his phone and waving frantically to his friend a few sections over, or if Titus Andronicus’ show hadn’t sold out. Can’t win 'em all, but Kyle Drabek made up for all three wrongs by throwing seven dominant one-hit innings at the Twins yesterday. I know I’m not the first person to notice this, not by a long shot, but Drabek’s fastball and cutter really move. He induced a lot of tentative swings up and down the Twins’ lineup. It’s totally unfair to start the Roy Halladay comparisons, but the weapons Drabek has at his disposal are similar to Doc’s, no?

Homer count after two games: Arencibia, Bautista, Lind, Arencibia again, Molina, and Nix. I particularly liked Molina's: with no hits on the board for either team in the third inning, Molina sold out to a first-pitch changeup from Francisco Liriano and landed it in the Jays’ bullpen. 1-0, home team. Good sign. The way this season is going, I assume McDonald is going to park a Nick Blackburn meatball in the upper deck today.

Aside from Drabek’s performance I thought the most interesting development yesterday was the attendance. 27194 people showed up to Toronto’s second home game of the year. For some perspective, in 2003 the Jays opened up at home against the Yankees. Round 2 of that series drew 15176. To me, this raises these questions: (1) How did it take MLB this long to figure out its season should begin with a weekend series? (2) How much of yesterday’s crowd was overflow from the long-sold-out home opener? (3) They’re giving away a bobblehead today – is it possible they’ll get an even bigger crowd today? (4) Where do the Jays end up in the attendance rankings if they go 81-81 this year? 94-68? 68-94?

The Jays are now two full games ahead of the clearly overrated Red Sox and will try to finish off the sweep this afternoon. Brett Cecil will start for the Jays. All eyes will be on the radar gun – Cecil’s velocity was down in Dunedin. Does it matter if Cecil’s throwing 87 instead of 91? If so, how much? I don’t know where to start answering that. It should help that he’ll be facing a lefty-heavy lineup today. Blackburn tries to stop the bleeding for Minnesota. Jays -135, first pitch 1:07.

Posted by Alex Obal on Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 05:52 AM EDT.

3 April 2011: Hello, This Is the Minneapolis Police | 41 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Magpie - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#232048) #

The good teams don’t win the close games, they avoid them.

That was well said. A fundamental truth, expressed in a nice, pithy fashion. (Which doubtless means I will be adding it to my repertoire!)

sam - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#232049) #

An observation:

For those at the game Friday night, Martinez and Tabler had Pat Gillick on the broadcast for an inning. Tabler asked Gillick who he would draft given the choice between an equally skilled position player and pitcher in the early rounds of the amateur draft. Gillick responded that he would always take the position player, believing that one could always grab a pitcher of similar skill in rounds three to four.

In the past, it seems as though opportunities like the one Tabler and Martinez had would have been spent asking Gillick about how great a certain team or player were rather than picking his brain about drafting philosophy.

In the past year, as many of you have sure also noticed, Toronto media are now much more interested in prospects and their development and drafting. I would hazard a guess that this is a function of the new regimes focus on that part of the game. I believe the Sun had a daily feature during Spring Training on a Jays prospect and it seems like writers for the Star and Globe are constantly berated with questions on their blogs about the future status of (insert prospect).

It's a part of the game which is difficult to get information on so I appreciate their efforts just as much as I appreciate the efforts of contributors to this site.

lexomatic - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#232052) #

100 people at the box office at 9:15 am today... 50 people behind me by the time i left

joeblow - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#232053) #

The Gillick response about position players over pitchers was very interesting. I wonder what a poll of GMs would reveal? Puts the Lawrie/Marcum trade in perspective.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#232055) #

Good teams avoiding close games, and drafting equally talented position players over pitchers, are two of my long-held beliefs.

I liked Drabek's quick pacing yesterday. Ready to go when the ball was thrown back but not at all irritated when the Twins inevitably stepped out. Poised and focussed.

ayjackson - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#232056) #

The Gillick response about position players over pitchers was very interesting

Not surprising though - I believe most would say they`d take a position player over the similarly talented pitcher. The problem is how do you determine a position player is similarly talented to a pitcher? I suspect teams like the Jays that seem to draft a lot of pitchers early in the draft have a unintended bias towards pitchers, ie they think the pitcher of similar talent to a position player is actually more talented than the position player.

sam - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#232057) #

I think the rule of thumb goes, it's easier to teach someone how to pitch than to teach someone how to hit. Also you're running that position player out there much more often than that pitcher who also will likely have a shorter career.

CaramonLS - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#232062) #

I think you have to measure impact on the game:

If a starting pitcher throws 200 innings, which translates to 1/7.3 of total innings pitched, vs a position player, who takes 1/9 - 1/10 of every AB + plays the defense of the position...

Depends more so on the position - if you can find that superstar SS or C that everyone wants, grab him in the 1st round. If it is a corner OF/1B, he better be projecting .900+ OPS.

sam - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#232064) #

I understand you're thinking, but amateur scouting and people like Gillick who himself professed in the interview not "to look at stats" view amateur players as unfinished projects with raw tools that they can shape. If there is any statistical projection it's something like, "that guy could be a 30/30 guy." For them, a guy who comes along and looks like he could one day hit, run, and catch is much more rare than a guy who looks like he can throw hard and has a good breaking ball.

For example, a top amateur scout once told me that their organization amateur scouting card for Josh Beckett simply read, "top of the rotation starter." He then said that he had in his many years never seen a card like that, and referenced someone like Koufax who had a similar card.

Alex Obal - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#232066) #

That was well said.

Naturally, it was either slightly adapted or completely stolen from Mike G.

sam - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#232067) #

I'm sure there's probably a good comparison assignment here. Of the successful first round picks in the majors, how many are position players vs. pitchers.

Alex Obal - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#232070) #

lexomatic - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#232072) #

Lind was horrible all game - he still looks off to me. Weak contact. Hill & Rivera were pretty bad too.
I liked Encarnacion's hustle. Cecil looked unbelievable for 2 innings, then he never got it back. something like 7 hits 2 walks 3 runs. His line looked ok, but he was fighting most of the time. For the most part he wasn't hit that hard though... lots of not hard hit singles nowhere near anybody. How fast is the Rogers Centre gun? He hit 91, but was mostly sitting 87/88. I wonder if he got a bit deflated after seeing the hitters let him down twice to start the game off.
That was a horribly disappointing game, and with a few good breaks a win.

Jdog - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#232073) #

Bautista's approach at the plate is a beautiful thing to watch.

lexomatic - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#232075) #

I forgot, I thouguht Snider made 3 really good throws the infield. Nothing Barfield-esque, but good throws.

robertdudek - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#232076) #

Can you compare the talent level of a plumber and an electrician? I say no. You can only compare them to their peers.

The only sensible way to do it is to have a percentile ranking for pitchers and another one for hitters.

What is unstated is that it is perhaps more difficult to separate the top pitchers from the next tier in the draft than hitters. I think this is definitely true for high school draftees.

Another issue: Encarnacion at 3B - wishful thinking. The man does not have the reflexes to play 3B and it has very little to do with his weight.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#232077) #

Tremendous at-bats by Snider, McCoy, Arencibia, Escobar, Rivera and Bautista in the ninth. Every single one of them. Nathan couldn't find the strike zone, and they punished him. Lind just guessed wrong.

People were hard on Lind in the postgame show because of that. He had the only bad AB in the entire ninth. Obviously he was looking fastball and got something offspeed he was out in front of and rolled over it, but it was a pitcher's pitch he went after. It was the kind of pitch you have to swing at on two strikes, but he played into Nathan's hands by hacking at that 0-0.

Thomas - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#232078) #

Tim Collins picked up his first major league win today, pitching 3 scoreless innings in relief for the Royals with 5 strikeouts.

stevieboy22 - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#232079) #

the man does not have the reflexes to play 3B and it has very little to do with his weight.

I would argue the problem isn't his reflex, its his throwing accuracy. He is fine with the glove, he just likes throwing the ball away.

I can see the argument, weight loss leads to improved footwork, which leads to more accurate throws. But then again, 15 pounds isn't that much. A lot of people can lose 8 pounds in 2 days from just switching over to a low sodium diet.

I was at a couple spring training games where EE played third, and he actually looked pretty good. I can see why Farrell made the decision he did.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#232080) #

"What is unstated is that it is perhaps more difficult to separate the top pitchers from the next tier in the draft than hitters. I think this is definitely true for high school draftees."

I concur.

92-93 - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#232081) #

E5's reflexes certainly came into play on the laser line drive hit right at him that was originally scored a double. I don't mind Encarnacion at 3B though because I really didn't find Bautista to be all that better, strong arm be damned. If Rivera doesn't get going with the bat Farrell may want to consider Nix at 3B and Encarnacion at DH, for the sole purpose of helping out the young pitching staff and keeping everybody confident - extra pitches are a killer.

robertdudek - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#232082) #

I was thinking of the ball that went off Edwin's glove also. He hardly had to move his glove but he missed it: a real 3B almost never misses a play like that. Throwing off balance causes errant throws. That happens when you aren't quick enough to get into proper throwing position.

greenfrog - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#232083) #

Tough loss, but on the plus side, Cecil seemed happy with his velocity: "Velocity was good, [I] felt good, everything felt great," said Cecil, who allowed three runs on six hits and two walks over five innings. "It's just as simple as ball creeping up a little bit." (bluejays.com).

That is good news. As is the fact that Morrow's rehab is on schedule. A healthy Romero, Morrow, Cecil and Drabek should make for an interesting season.

I also liked the way the Jays battled right to the end. And Bautista looks like he hasn't missed a beat at the plate. Very impressive. A good series for the Jays.

earlweaverfan - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#232084) #

A healthy Romero, Morrow, Cecil and Drabek should make for an interesting season.

And the chances aren't bad that we will end up with Reyes as #5, and that he will be very solid indeed.

Cecil wasn't as close to being good as he says, but I am very sure that he will be that good within 2-3 more starts, and there is every chance that the hitting machine that is the Jays offense will spot him a large lead, in those iffy starts.

rtcaino - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#232085) #

And the chances aren't bad that we will end up with Reyes as #5, and that he will be very solid indeed.

Is it likely that Litsch gets traded?

Ryan Day - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#232087) #

I'm deeply upset that we missed the opportunity to have Tim Collins and Jon Rauch on the same team. Can you imagine the pure, joyous spectacle of the two of them warming up together in the pen? The utter bafflement, and possibly terror, of hitters as the pitching mound becomes a funhouse mirror?

Wildly speculating here... but how about Collins for ROY? Let's say he has a strong first half, picks up a few saves & wins, then takes over at closer when the Royals deal Soria. Finishes the year with 20-25 saves and a ton of Ks, which puts him in good company with recent winners like Bailey and Street.

Magpie - Sunday, April 03 2011 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#232088) #

And the chances aren't bad that we will end up with Reyes as #5, and that he will be very solid indeed.

On the other hand, he's got a career ERA of 6.40. In the National League. The chances may not be bad, but they're not exactly great.

Well, it's April....

katman - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#232089) #

Apparently, Tiny Tim pitched just 3 innings.

But he struck out Vernon Wells twice :-)

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_03_anamlb_kcamlb_1&mode=wrap

Yunel Escobar was worth it, but... Collins looks like he'll be quite good.

dan gordon - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 01:12 AM EDT (#232091) #

Well, the trade also included Pastornicky as well as Collins and Gonzalez. It remains to be seen if Escobar (and Reyes) were worth it. It will take at least 2-3 more years to properly evaluate this trade.

chocolatethunder - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#232095) #

No offense...but lets not get carried away about Collins....relievers are a dime a dozen, and there is no way he would of made our team this year....better question is would you trade Escobar for Pastornicky, Gonzalez, and Collins straight up??...personally I would not

Mike Green - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#232102) #

It's funny, Magpie. If you look at Reyes' comparables according to BBRef (all of whom had ERAs over 6 through age 25), it's not really so bad. The comps posted an ERA of 4.15 over the rest of their careers, although most of it was in relief. By way of contrast, Brett Cecil's and Ricky Romero's comps have posted ERAs of 4.50 and 4.43 over the rest of their careers, although almost all of it was in the rotation.

Personally, I expect Reyes and Rzepczynski to switch roles sometime during the middle of the year.

Ryan Day - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#232107) #

I refuse to be objective when it comes to a 5'7" left-handed strikeout machine who went from undrafted to the majors. Collins' story - and, dare I say, legend - is just too much fun.

bpoz - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#232110) #

I was too late in putting my $.02 about TB & Bos, now I cannot find the threads.

So TB 84 wins in 2009, so maybe they do it again in 2011.

Bos win a lot of games in 2011 (100+) but don't make it to the WS.

Forgive me for suggesting another poll. But people are speculating. When Morrow gets back, one of Drabek,Litsch & Reyes will not be a starter. Who will it be and where will he go?
Reyes to the pen.

uglyone - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#232114) #

Honestly, one Jay I just can't get excited about is Reyes. His career numbers are just too bad, and his "good" spring featured extremely, extremely mediocre peripherals as well.

I just don't see the upside here to warrant giving him an extended chance if he's not clearly the best option to start.

And I can't see how he fits in the bullpen either.

CL - Francisco
SU - Rauch
SU - Rzepczynski
MR - Frasor
MR - Camp
MR - Dotel/Janssen
LR - Villanueva

we're already looking at being forced to drop one good relieve, and a second reliever with promise (Purcey). How do we justify sticking Reyes in there over any of those guys?

In other years, we may have had room for a project like this but I don't see any sense in us pushing this one very far unless he is fairly dominant in the one or two starts he's going to get with Morrow on the DL.

TamRa - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#232119) #

relievers are a dime a dozen, and there is no way he would of made our team this year.

My response to that is - how many of the current occupants of our pen would you trade straight up for Collins?

Purcey?
Villianueva?
Dotel?
Even Rauch?

If he didn't make our bullpen it would only be because of the teams commitment to being slow and deliberate with promotions, and the over-signing of veterans last winter. I'd certainly rather have Collins here than any of those guys.

Hodgie - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#232123) #

I find it curious that seemingly 34 good innings in relief last season have created the perception that Purcey holds more promise than Reyes. Looking at their minor league numbers they are very similar with an edge that I would grant to Reyes:

H/9: Purcey 8.3, Reyes 8.1

HR/9: Purcey 0.7, Reyes 0.6

SO/9: Purcey 8.8, Reyes 8.3

BB/9: Purcey 4.4, Reyes 3.3

In fact, considering that Reyes is also 2.5 years younger than Purcey, I am hard pressed to understand how Purcey is seen as the more valuable pitcher at this time.

uglyone - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#232127) #

I don't think there's room for either of them on this team, really.

Ryan Day - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#232129) #

Neither of those guys has a job because of their numbers, which are unimpressive at best. They're on the team because they're hard-throwing left-handers with good stuff who are out of options. They may never be able to get MLB hitters out consistently, but the Jays aren't ready to give up on them just yet because they'd both probably be claimed on waivers.

uglyone - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#232130) #

though looking at their MLB numbers:

As Starter:

Purcey: 113.0ip, 7.7k/9, 4.7bb/9, 1.2hr/9, 1.59whip, 5.81era, 4.83fip, 4.96xfip
Reyes: 183.2ip, 5.9k/9, 4.2bb/9, 1.4hr/9, 1.60whip, 5.93era, 5.37fip, 4.72xfip

As Reliever:

Purcey: 34.0ip, 8.5k/9, 4.0bb/9, 0.8hr/9, 1.21whip, 3.71era, 3.67fip, 4.35xfip
Reyes: 10.1ip, 7.0k/9, 10.5bb/9, 3.5hr/9, 3.00whip, 14.81era, 10.40fip,

Reyes has the age advantage, but Purcey did that in the AL East.

And I guess the biggest thing is that Purcey's showed the elite K potential, which is always enticing.

I dunno, I don't see room for either of them, even if lefties always have extra value.

vw_fan17 - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#232132) #

Gillick responded that he would always take the position player, believing that one could always grab a pitcher of similar skill in rounds three to four.

Maybe it's just me, but IIRC, Mr. Gillick didn't exactly have the greatest drafting record while part of the Jays... Kinda like getting hitting advice from Mr. Mendoza.. Sure, it's better than nothing, but there's a whole pile of people likely to have better advice..

TamRa - Monday, April 04 2011 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#232133) #

^^
This is a vaild observation. I thought about making it myself but I'd have been unlikely to do so that tersely so i bit my virtual tongue.

3 April 2011: Hello, This Is the Minneapolis Police | 41 comments | Create New Account

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