Seems to me (without any stats to back it up) that Reyes really slows down the game to a Frasor-like pace when runners get on, and it throws him off. He seems to be a better pitcher with no one on.

Jo-Jo Reyes with Jose Molina catching:
6.75 ERA, 2.18 WHIP, 1.71 K/BB, 4.44 innings per start

Jo-Jo Reyes with J.P. Arencibia catching:
2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 3.67 K/BB, 5.22 innings per start

It boggles the mind to think what J.P. could do with Morrow and Drabek. Time to cut Molina back to 1 start per week.

That's absolutely terrifying. How about expanding those numbers - JPA vs Molina?

 I was weary of saying anything positive with a slim 1 run lead. Really saw that one coming. Too bad for your sorrow.

Maybe Reyes is just unlucky.

The reason Canadians don't like elections is that most voters lose. 40% support is a solid majority.

In any case, we shouldn't feel any negative impact until the fall.

Three 9th inning homers for Rauch now. 11 ip, 3 hr's may suggest he's not the best option for closing, at least on the road.

When I saw Francisco in the 'pen, I thought, "that's the guy I want in the 9th." I can't explain why, exactly. Maybe because he threw so well last time out and has a bit better pedigree. Maybe because Rauch is good, but in my mind isn't really a true closer. In any case, it's all hindsight, and really, Rauch had earned the call tonight. In a parallel universe, he comes on, gets three groundball outs, and the Jays are a game below .500.

On the plus side, great outing by Reyes, solid work by Camp and Zep, and excellent defense on the left side of the infield.

Johnny: that stats screams small sample size.

Don't think of it as small sample size. Think of it as homeopathic sabremetrics.

Just because the stats used to back the assertion up are dubious says nothing about the assertion itself.

Molina should definitely be cut back to one start per week or JPA should be given DH duties if not catching. JPA's OBP is not great, but give him a turn around the league.

Cooper can go away at any time, please. Color me not impressed.

I had to be careful not to use too much logic in that post. It would have given readers whiplash considering what preceded it.

(BTW, there's a small issue about using ERA when discussing The Recent Adventures of Jo-Jo)

I think you could make the case that David Cooper has already passed Brian and Don to be the best Cooper the Jays have ever had.

The AL East standings are now more in line with what everyone expected for 2011:

NY
Tampa
Boston
Baltimore
Toronto

I think the top three teams will be fighting it out all season. The Jays have an interesting team, and a promising farm system, but probably have too many positional player weaknesses (CF, 3B, maybe 2B and LF), and are maybe one solid starting pitcher short, to contend this season.

Brett Wallace watch: he's now hitting 383/448/543, and added his second HR of the season tonight. I don't expect him to hit .380 this season - .280 seems more likely. But I think he can be at least an average first baseman in the NL. One thing I like is that he's radically improved his BB:K ratio from last season, which suggests not only improved plate discipline, but also an ability to learn and develop. He's bounced around a lot for a young player, and I think he could do well if he finds a comfort zone in Houston.

It boggles the mind to think what J.P. could do with Morrow and Drabek. Time to cut Molina back to 1 start per week.

A pitchers ERA for different catchers might have less to do with the actual catcher itself and maybe something to do with the situation that caused that specific catcher to be in the lineup that day or not at all. Day/night, lineup strength, health on that day, and involve a wole list of other factors that a handful of starts can't tell you enough about. Perhaps JPA was in the lineup on days that the advanced scouting department had a thorough report on individidual hitter weaknesses and felt it was an easy enough task for the young catcher to handle. There's a lot more to these decisions than just cut and dry stats.

Reyes did not look great to me. He looked like the same mediocre SP he's been all year.

I don't know if there is a category called "hair pullers" but I bet the Jays lose three quarters of those games.

Chart?

I've seen maybe half of Cooper's at bats, and it seems like he is always popping everything up. All of his outs seem to be popups. Is he a left handed Vernon Wells?

For all the abuse heaped on Jo Jo Reyes in recent weeks, Fangraphs has him contributing a WAR of 0.6 to the Jays this season, compared to Kyle Drabek's WAR of 0.2.   He's also got a better BB/9 and HR/9 and K/9 than Drabek, and he is only slightly worse than Drabek on ERA and xFIP.  He has had 3 good starts and 3 bad starts this year.  His overall numbers are basically okay for a 5th starter (and the Jays clearly think that he has potential to improve on that). 

I'm not saying that the critics are totally wrong.  His numbers look a bit better than they should because of all the unearned runs in Texas (which he was not exactly blameless for).  Even yesterday, his GB/FB ratio was somewhat alarming.  I'm just saying that, by the numbers, Reyes has performed better than some people think.

[Reyes] seems to be a better pitcher with no one on.

There might be something to that. His career strand rate is 62.4%, which is incomprehensibly bad.

Molina should definitely be cut back to one start per week

No backup catcher in the majors plays that seldom. The guys who back up Brian McCann and Joe Mauer play more often than that. We're not talking about first base or left field here.

Come on. "Homeopathic sabremetrics"? I thought that was pretty good.

Anyone know what's going on with Bautista?

Anyone know what's going on with Bautista?

He has a stiff neck, MRI's were negative, he's probably just going to rest until the weekend series.

Catcher ERA is probably not that instructive even with a large sample size. Last year everyone was complaing because JPA's was real high in his short stint. Go figure.

As for Reyes v. Drabek, well, Drabek hasn't been great (too many walks), but at least you know why he's here - he's the team's number 1 pitching prospect and he's basically moved beyond the minors, whereas Reyes has had chances and hasn't impressed. If it were me I would start Rzep and move Reyes to the bullpen... but it's not.

Catcher ERA is probably not that instructive even with a large sample size.

The grain of truth in my homeopathetic sabermetrics (yes!) is that I don't agree with Blue Jay management on having Molina start 40% of the time. And the argument for starting Molina so much is entirely based in Catcher ERA - there is no other evidence, offensive or defensive, that indicates he merits being more than the 25th man on the roster. I would start him with Drabek and when JP is banged up, nothing more.

No backup catcher in the majors plays that seldom. The guys who back up Brian McCann and Joe Mauer play more often than that.

Magpie, we've had this discussion before - sure it's rare for a team to actually play their starting catcher in 5 of every 6 games. But there's a fundamental difference between playing your starting catcher 80% of the time because that's what he can handle and deciding up front that you'll only start your starting catcher 60% of the time.

That said, McCann DID in fact start at the 5 of 6 rate in both 2008 and 2009, and wasn't far off in 2010. Mauer did start that much in 2008, and the last 2 years has played that much but not exclusively as catcher, he gets his rest by DHing.

No one really expects Arencibia to perform at the level of those 2, so lets make a more apt comparison: Rookie Geovanny Soto of the 2008 Cubs (25 years old and coming off an MVP campaign in the PCL, natch) started almost exactly 5 of every 6 games.

The grain of truth in my homeopathetic sabermetrics (yes!) is that I don't agree with Blue Jay management on having Molina start 40% of the time. And the argument for starting Molina so much is entirely based in Catcher ERA - there is no other evidence, offensive or defensive, that indicates he merits being more than the 25th man on the roster. I would start him with Drabek and when JP is banged up, nothing more.

No backup catcher in the majors plays that seldom. The guys who back up Brian McCann and Joe Mauer play more often than that.

Magpie, we've had this discussion before - sure it's rare for a team to actually play their starting catcher in 5 of every 6 games. But there's a fundamental difference between playing your starting catcher 80% of the time because that's what he can handle and deciding up front that you'll only start your starting catcher 60% of the time.

That said, McCann DID in fact start at the 5 of 6 rate in both 2008 and 2009, and wasn't far off in 2010. Mauer did start that much in 2008, and the last 2 years has played that much but not exclusively as catcher, he gets his rest by DHing.

No one really expects Arencibia to perform at the level of those 2, so lets make a more apt comparison: Rookie Geovanny Soto of the 2008 Cubs (25 years old and coming off an MVP campaign in the PCL, natch) started almost exactly 5 of every 6 games.

First of all, cherry picking 1 season by 1 guy (who was then injured in each of the next two years, I might add) doesn't really prove much. Second, I am not sure what there is to get so worked up about. Arencibia has played 19 games to Molina's 11, and basically has twice as many PA's. The team doesn't really seem interested in having Molina start more games. He started 51 of 162 last year (less than 1/3), and is starting about 1/3 now.

What Magpie said is true - catchers just don't play that much, rightly or wrongly (I tend to think rightly. Catching is tough.) Brian McCann plays a lot, sure. Mauer has started 110, 119, 88, 135, 105 and 107 games at catcher in his full seasons. Soto started 132 games in '08, and then 92 and 97 the next two years. Victor Martinez has started more than 130 games at catcher once. In the last 5 years, 2006-2010, there were 17 catcher seasons of 130 games started or more - 4 by Jason Kendall, 3 by Russell Martin, 2 each by McCann, Suzuki and Yadier Molina, and then Kenji Jojihma, Mauer, Benji Molina and Soto. I just don't see why this is an issue, and realistically, an extra 15 games by JP Arencibia over Jose Molina (say, the difference between a 110-52 split and a 125-37 split) might be 3/4 of a win, assuming you don't think Arencibia will perform worse if he doesn't get regular rest (which may very well be the case).

I would start him with Drabek and when JP is banged up, nothing more.

I more or less agree: Molina catches Drabek, and Morrow gets - transitioned? - from Molina to Arencibia. I also agree that there are all kinds of difficulties with looking at catcher ERA. I do remember looking at this very subject with Molina and discovering that his teams did have better ERAs with him catching in all but one of the last five or six years (I forget the details, and can't be bothered to research it again!). And what especially struck me was that this pattern followed him from team to team. I don't know why that would happen, but I'm always willing to respect that it does.

Cooper can go away at any time, please. Color me not impressed.

I've actually been quite impressed by him so far, and I wasn't expecting much. This guy is having the best at bats on the team right now, and while the hits aren't there yet, if he keeps on using that good eye and that ability to foul off borderline 2-strike pitches to continutally go deep into counts like he has so far, I think those hits will come sooner rather than later.

What's making JPA sitting palatable is that Molina has been really good at the plate as well.

Really, though, all complaints would dissappear if JPA was used as the DH more when Molina is in.

In the Department of Weird (and Too Early) Statistics:  there are 3 Blue Jays among the 12 top-hitting rookies in the American League, according to Fangraphs.  The top-hitting rookie is JPA, with a WAR of 0.6.  Sitting at number 4 is ... Mike McCoy.  And at number 12 is ... David Cooper.  (Perhaps I won't mention his WAR just yet.)

Drabek vs Price tomorrow.  Romero has an oblique strain.

Weird to see Neimann out after just 60 pitches. 3 runs allowed isn't a disaster.

there is no other evidence, offensive or defensive, that indicates he merits being more than the 25th man on the roster.

I can't tell if this is sarcasm.  I don't think it's outrageous to say that there are things that a veteran catcher can do with a young pitching staff that provides value for his organization without being reflected in a small sample size of catchers ERA. This isn't a fantasy team.

JPA is catching enough games for his rookie year.

The debate made me take a look back at Gary Carter who was the face of the franchise in Montreal.

In his rookie year at age 21 he started only 56 game behind the plate vs 80 in right field. Of course, things might have been a bit different with a DH.

age   g         gs
21      66       56
22      60       55
23      146     143
24      152     147
25      138      135
26      149     146