Hope we get lucky in the draft. Getting A Martin was not luck but some kind of strangeness that unfolded. If Van Eck and/or Frasso become reliable pitchers then that has to be luck.

Last years 5 round draft and $20,000 max signing bonus meant that many good players were not signed. That makes this draft very deep.

Martin was spurned by the top teams who preferred a pitcher or a player with higher power projections.
When he felt to the Jays, they had to go underslot and be conservative with many of their other selections to save enough money to sign him.

This draft could have many surprises  but we won't find that out for years.

I just heard Kiley McDaniel on Kevin Goldstein's podcast. He said that Jay Allen has the biggest difference of opinion among scouts in this years draft. Some scouts have pegged Allen as a mid third round pick and others say mid first round.

40 rounds in 2019 then 25 rounds total for 2020 and 2021. As mentioned.

So I expect 2 $5,000 picks in the top 10 rounds by us. Then I expect quite a few NDFA players, except that there are fewer minor league teams.

I don't know if there is a signing limit for the NDFAs. There should be a lot of them. We can load up on Waguespacks.

"I just heard Kiley McDaniel on Kevin Goldstein's podcast. He said that Jay Allen has the biggest difference of opinion among scouts in this years draft. Some scouts have pegged Allen as a mid third round pick and others say mid first round."

Sounds like a guy you'd pick in the 2nd rnd then.

That's not how that works.

If you're a team that believes he's mid-1st, then it depends where you're picking and who's also there.

If you don't believe, why waste the second round pick?

Just because it's an average on paper, you eventually have to truest your evaluations a bit.

the believers bit was poorly written - I meant the believers would be guaging where they're at in the first round, because he might not make it to their second, and if he's who you believe is best available, you take him just in case one of the following teams is also a believer

2 bWAR career seems about the median outcome for a #19 pick. Maybe with teams putting more emphasis on PD, it could/should rise. But there are still lots of ways to fail.

Let me rephrase.

If the teams highest on him think he's at best a mid 1st rou d pick. But lots of teams think he's much less than that...

Then he's not a guy I want to use a mid 1st round pick on.

Now if it's a guy that the dispute is between whether he's a high first round pick or a low first round pick, then that's a guy I'd use a mid first on.

Here in the Vandy hinterland, I truly hate the idea of the Bosox getting Jack Leiter. We'll see him in the bigs soon.

You don't factor what other teams think.
There are 29 of them so you're probably going to be  wrong on at least a couple of them.

You rank all the guys available and you put special attention on some of the guys that you think are going to be available to you. One thing that teams still factor in is signability.  There is no point in drafting a guy that will not sign and sometimes, like with Martin, you need to save some money to cover some guys that were signed later than they wanted and hence are allotted a smaller bonus than the one they anticipated.

Things are quite different from when teams could offer as much money as they wanted.
There are no Rowdy Tellez signings nowadays.

De Grom was undrafted out of high school.
He was a light hitting shortstop in University.
He eventually became the closer and moved to the rotation once he learned to throw a slider.
He was drafted in the 9th round.

There are no Rowdy Tellez signings nowadays.

Yes there are. Tellez was drafted after bonus pools came in. 2011 was the last year teams spent what they wanted.

For the draft the Jays have the 3rd smallest amount to spend at $5,775,900. Astros the least (no 1st or 2nd round picks) at $2,940,600. In the past teams could sign guys who were undrafted to $125k bonuses without penalty and go higher based on their cap. Now if a guy is undrafted (post round 20 like Tellez who was a 30th round pick) the cap is a hard $20k. I suspect if the rules then were as now the Jays might have taken him in the 20th. This was not part of the agreement players expected - made as part of COVID as it should still be 40 rounds and undrafted guys get whatever the team wants to give them within cap limits. Should be interesting to see how this changes for 2022 as there (hopefully) will be a new agreement by then.

The 2013 draft for the Jays is interesting to look back at. AA pretty much knew what he was doing by then one would figure, and 14 of the 40 drafted have reached the majors which is a very good number. The best has been Matthew Boyd with 7.8 WAR, then Kendall Graveman 6.8, then Danny Jansen 2.1. Others currently on the Jays are Tim Mayza, Jonathan Davis, and Patrick Murphy (in AAA right now). So lots of guys but not great ones. Top pick went to Phil Bickford who didn't sign (did 2 years later for SF) who is now with LA as a reliever (they got him off waivers from Milwaukee and is doing well).

Seems AA's drafts produced a lot of guys but not much in quality. The opposite of what I'd want. I see quality as #1, quantity as secondary. 2014 has 8 reaching, none with 2 WAR yet (Jordan Romano the best) - #9 overall was Jeff Hoffman who has negative WAR so far in his career but did help us get Tulo which helped a lot in 2015/16. While pick #11 overall was wasted on Max Pentecost who never reached and is now retired (Trea Turner taken 2 picks later ...dang it... and Matt Chapman 22nd overall - those 2 would've looked nice instead of Hoffman and Pentecost but who knew?). 2015 was his final Blue Jays draft and it was a flop - just 3 have reached and the best didn't sign (Brady Singer), the other 2 are Travis Bergen, and Tayler Saucedo (rounds 7 & 21 respectively). Jon Harris was the first round pick and is now in AA in relief, Singer was round 2, Justin Maese round 3 (reliever in A+ today). Reggie Pruitt was the big bonus late guy (ala Tellez) and is in AA with a 518 OPS in the OF. Ugh.

No question I like Atikns' first draft (2016) a lot more. Just 4 in the majors so far, but the top 2 are nice - Bo Bichette (2nd round) and Cavan Biggio (5th round). First round went to T.J. Zeuch, Josh Palacios was the 4th round. J.B. Woodman in the 2nd was used to get Aledmys Diaz who was traded for Trent Thornton so that was OK in the end, but not wow. Kirby Snead was also drafted and is doing very well in the AAA pen (25 IP 13 H 9 BB 34 SO 2.16 ERA) so might get a shot this year at some point. 2017 has 3 who have reached (Nate Pearson, Riley Adams, Ty Tice) and a few interesting ones (Logan Warmoth, Kevin Smith, Zach Logue). For 2018 only Nick Allgeyer has reached, although many like Jordan Groshans (245/329/415 in AA this year and a top 100 prospect), Adam Kloffenstein was a top 10 Jays prospect but his 6.18 ERA in A+ suggests he might not be for much longer.

I like Mitch McGreevey in the first round, the Jays likely go pitching in the first round with the talent available in their draft range.

I’m hoping Harry Ford falls to the Jays. BA has the Reds taking him at #17.

The credit for drafting Matt Boyd and Kendall Graveman all belongs to the scouting staff.

Boyd and Graveman were drafted purely for signability reasons in 2013 to try to go overslot for Phil Bickford in the 1st round. It's a real testament to hard work on behalf of Graveman and Boyd to become major leaguers with low initial expectations and shrewd scouting by the draft team to find any value at all in the later rounds at all with the added constraints of no money for signing bonuses and being limited to drafting college seniors with no leverage.

Looking it up, Matthew Boyd signed for 75,000 in the sixth round, way below slot though I don't know what it was. Graveman signed in the 8th round for 5,000 with slot being 150k.

Graveman was almost pure luck. He was more or less an org guy in High A. Derrick Chung went to the mound after Graveman threw an unusual pitch that dove into the batters hands. Told him to throw it again. Graveman managed to repeat it. He had suddenly discovered a cutter. Once he incorporated the pitch, he was rapidly promoted.

Boyd was also unusual. HS starters often get velo bumps as they fill out. College guys much less so. But Boyd did manage a velo bump, and a few months later had a further velo bump. Remember the FG chat guy remarking it almost unprecedented. Don't know if it was just him or if the pitching coaches made some mechanical changes.

Baseball America’s latest mock has the Jays taking righty Will Bednar from Mississippi State.

The mock drafts from fangraphs and Baseball America are very different. They have the same number one pick but vary significantly from number two. So, who knows?

The latest 4 mocks (since yesterday) all have different names projected but in common. each suggests the Jays will select a college pitcher. I hope that turns out to be the case. There will be one more last minute mock put out by Jim Callis late this afternoon.

With no 2nd round pick and money, I expect that signability will be a major factor for the Jays - I expect the Jays to go college and conservative.

Last minute pick from Callis has Jays selecting Gunnar Hogland. This is the 5th different college pitcher attached to Jays since yesterday.Hogland had TJ surgery in May and was ranked #10 before that.

I seem to be drawn to the Good Command with Solid Stuff picks this year, so Hoglund would definitely scratch that itch for me. So would Wicks (plus-plus changeup? Yes Plz).

I'd give a big thumbs up if the jays selected Gunnar Hogland.

Here are some current predictions for the Jays (#19):

Fangraphs: Jordan Wicks
BA: Will Bednar
Jim Callis (MLB.com): Gunnar Hoglund
Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com): Ryan Cusick
Mike Axisa (CBS): Jay Allen

The good news: Red Sox can't take Jack Leiter.
The bad news: Red Sox get a potential superstar Shortstop.

Excited to see what the Jays do. I also feel Hoglund is the best choice at that point if he falls that far.

I’m not a fan of taking a Tommy John guy with the first pick. I’m generally fine with almost all of the college arms, but would prefer to stay away from the high school arms outside of Painter.

"With no 2nd round pick and money, I expect that signability will be a major factor for the Jays - I expect the Jays to go college and conservative."

I agree re: signability but teams talk to players before so they know what their number is. Plenty of high schoolers in that area would go for underslot as well. I mean Groshans went for way under slot.

That's fair SJ. To be honest, this is probably the least "tuned in" I've been to the draft in my adult life.

Of course, if half these teams pick the way the Royals do, maybe Rocker can fall another 12 positions. ;)

Kelekin, I have also spent less time prepping for the draft than normal. A year off from baseball and a busy home life has me less tuned in than normal. I would be really surprised in Rocker isn’t the Angels pick.

I would've thought the same. Bachmann over Rocker though. Wow.

This draft has been way off where most mock drafts expected. I wonder if some teams are cutting budgets in general. Kahil Watson is the dream 10 picks away.

A TJ guy will probably fall but require slot+ money, not ideal.
Maybe a conservative pick tonight, maybe they save money on off the board guys tomorrow instead.

The Jays under the previous regime liked summer circuit and cape cod league performers who hits premium velocity. Watson, McClain and Will Taylor fit that mold as hitters.

Jeff Hoffman has turned me off gambling on high-ceiling arms who have had TJ surgery.

The Manoah pick was pretty good. Big pitcher who figured it out late?

I'm fine with Leiter to Texas.
When you draft 4th, at worse you pick the guy you ranked 4th.

Jays pick at a quarter to midnight?

Ford selected at #12 by the M's. There goes my pick...

Right now 11 picks are done, with 1 unranked, and a 39th ranked guy taken by KC. This means the Jays will have a shot at worst at the 17th ranked guy instead of the 19th ranked. The Orioles taking an unranked with the 5th pick was weird. #4 (Kahlil Watson, a high school SS) and #9 (Ty Madden, RHP in college) ranking haven't been drafted yet, same with #11 (Sal Frelick, SS college), #12 (Matt McLain, SS College) and #16 (Jordan Wicks, LHP College), #17 is Anthony Solometo (LHP High School). Pick 13 about to happen.

Dodgers knew Walker Beuhler had a torn ligament and needed TJ when they drafted him. That doesn't mean one should always draft TJ guys either. Every player is different.

The Orioles taking an unranked with the 5th pick was weird.

Not that weird. FG had Cowser ranked 6th.

Good point, hypobole.

FG chat just now:

Blue Jays
8:49 Hearing anything on who's in play for the Jays?

Kevin Goldstein
8:49 Hearing they're all over the place, TBD

"
Blue Jays
8:49 Hearing anything on who's in play for the Jays?

Kevin Goldstein
8:49 Hearing they're all over the place, TBD"

Honestly, this is the way anyone picking below like pick 10 should be. There are so many ways the draft can go, you need to be flexible and talk to a bunch of people. It's not just talent, it's talent per value. If you like guys the same and one is willing to go for $500K less...

ESPN had the Orioles pick, Cowser, ranked at 12th.

Price of using MLB's tracker I guess - they had him with a -- for rank. So what is wrong with Kahlil Watson? #4 ranking by MLB but undrafted after 15 picks. Weird. He is undersized at 5'9" but if he is there when the Jays have their pick I'd grab him. You go for top 5 talent if you can especially at #19.

Just when I thought Kahlil Watson priced himself out of the draft.

Jays were never going to be able to take Watson because they don't have the money. Watson would need to go overslot which would leave the Jays with zero money for the rest of the picks.

I stand by Mitch McGreevy as the pick, and Will Taylor if its a hitter.

I am totally fine with Matt McClain and Jordan Wicks.

Crap, as I typed it the Brewers took him.

Best available with 2 to go are... #9 (Ty Madden, RHP in college) #12 (Matt McLain, SS College) and #16 (Jordan Wicks, LHP College). So the Jays can slightly improve from their position.

John, if the reason Watson dropped was because he told teams he wanted $6 million (between 5th and 6th slot), the Jays wouldn't draft him because their entire pool amount is well under $6 million.

Will Taylor "has reportedly thrown out a $4 million-plus asking price in order to forego a college football career at Clemson" - Fangraphs. So probably not someone the Jays will pick.

Some remaining names for the Jays: Wicks, Hoglund, Madden, Montgomery (Colson).

Well I had McGreevy draft range, off by one pick. Likely Jordan Wicks if you ask me after Greenfrog threw out a 4M bonus on Taylor.

Lots of college arms left in the Jays range.

Three college pitchers, Madden, Wicks and Hoglund the top players remaining for the Jays per BA.

Bubba Chandler is the top high schooler.

Hoglund to Toronto per Goldstein.

Fangraphs is reporting Jays will take Hoglund.

Sounds like it's Gunnar Hoglund.

Getting ready to pull the trigger on a new thread. Stand by...

Jim Callis wins the Mock Draft competition for Toronto's pick.