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We need an exorcism. I don't know what it is about that stupid arena, but the Jays are now 6-19 there against the Tampa Bay Rays.


Rays 3, Jays 2. Evan Longoria's return to action is a success, despite Jo-Jo Reyes' strongest showing of the year. Reyes allows six baserunners over six innings and leaves with a 2-1 lead. It's not enough to snap his Pitcher Winless streak, though. Not at the Trop. Ben Zobrist leads off the ninth with a single off Jon Rauch, B.J. Upton homers, ballgame.

On the bright side, Edwin Encarnacion doubled twice. He put the Jays ahead with a Vlad Guerrero special, one-arming a breaking ball at his ankles and sending it off the wall in dead center for an RBI double. Marc Rzepczynski pitched a spotless eighth and K'd Evan Longoria; he's posted positive WPA in 13 of his 15 games. Adam Lind had two hits and a walk. I'm sure there were some less bright developments, but my attention last night was focused mostly on Celtics/Heat, and I didn't notice anything egregious. I guess Rauch is under the microscope after this blown save. He definitely hasn't been overpowering anybody, and his fastball is down a couple ticks. Whatever, it's still early. And although I'm more confident with Francisco or Rzepczynski on the mound, I'm happy with Rauch as the ninth-inning guy who nails down the easy saves, so long as his K rate ends up considerably north of 15.6% (or alternatively he maintains that rate while not falling behind any hitters).

The last three games have been painful, but Arlington, the Bronx and St. Pete is just about the toughest ten-day, ten-game road trip possible, and 4-4 over the first eight is nothing to sneeze at, especially with Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero lined up to pitch the last two. Morrow takes on tall righty Jeff Niemann tonight – probably want to win this one, since it's David Price tomorrow and the Jays have never beat him. Rays -120 tonight (I'll take the underdog), first pitch 6:40.
4 May 2011: Trop de trop | 40 comments | Create New Account
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Alex Obal - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#234115) #
6-20, not 6-23, as they played three games in 2008 at Walt Disney World. The Rays won all three. Maybe I have it wrong and the Trop is the only thing that stands between Tampa and three home series sweeps of Toronto.
Mike Green - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#234116) #
La maladie: trop de trop.  Le remede: un rayon d'espoir?

Ricky Romero must be wondering what he did wrong.  He has pitched well so far and received very little support, and next he gets to face David Price without Bautista in the lineup. 

Alex Obal - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#234117) #
Make that 6-19. Not assuming a loss, though that'd probably be wise – just can't count. Perils of calculating your own stats. That is all.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#234118) #
And then he misses a four-game series against Detroit so he can face his favorite team on Monday. That's why they pay him...
bpoz - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#234120) #
It seems to me that the Jays are just limping through the season. They just cannot get any momentum going.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#234122) #

Ricky Romero must be wondering what he did wrong. 

Could be he just has to learn how to win.

In all seriousness, Greg Zaun said something to that effect about starting pitchers that floored me (I expected more coming from him). As if channeling Joe Morgan, he said something like "it's all about wins and losses for starting pitchers; if the other guy is putting up zeroes, you've got to as well", etc., etc.

China fan - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#234124) #

..... if the other guy is putting up zeroes, you've got to as well....

Isn't Zaun simply saying that a pitcher will pitch differently if he has an 8-run lead than if it's a scoreless tie?

 

China fan - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#234125) #

Must be hard, in two hours of talking, to avoid the occasional obvious statement.   I think anyone who is required to fill the airwaves for a couple of hours is going to occasionally say something that we already know.....  The real question is whether he sometimes provides a bit of insight.  I haven't listened to Zaun on the air, so I'm not really qualified to comment, but his analysis of Snider's swing problems (which I saw quoted on blogs) was shrewd and prophetic.

Chuck - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#234126) #

his analysis of Snider's swing problems (which I saw quoted on blogs) was shrewd and prophetic

Agreed. I have enjoyed most of his from-a-player's-view perspectives, this being one of them. And I actually saw this when it aired. He even stood with a bat and imiated Snider's swing, showing the flaw. I have usually found that what Zaun has to say is worth listening to (unlike Tabler, for instance).

But he does not fill up two hours of air time. He and Jamie Campbell have a brief pre-game show and several 2-minute breakaway segments during a game, so he generally has plenty of time to prepare what he is going to say.

His comment about wins and losses what most definitely not the Jack Morris pitching to the score blather. He was not giving Romero a pass for not winning more games despite having pitched well. It sounded so much like Joe Morgan it surprised the hell out of me. I think he even caught Jamie Campbell by surprise (it's possible, though, that I was simply projecting).

China fan - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#234127) #
Thanks for the correction on Zaun's airtime.  I think I was assuming that his airtime was the same as his daily Twitter time.... 
rtcaino - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#234128) #

I haven't listened to Zaun on the air, so I'm not really qualified to comment, but his analysis of Snider's swing problems (which I saw quoted on blogs) was shrewd and prophetic.

His comments on the Fan590, the day Snider was sent down, were pretty wack. He vehemently disagreed with the demotion, which he is entitled to do. However, he didn’t seem to have even clear understanding of Snider’s career progression to that point in time on which to base his opinion.

I don't mind Zaun. But I certainly don't expect him to regularly provide sophisticated, or even logically coherent arguments.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#234131) #
if the other pitcher is putting up zeroes, you have to as well...

I couldn't disagree more with this mindset.  Let's say there is no score through 3 innings.  I do not want Ricky Romero or Brett Cecil or Brandon Morrow going out there thinking that they have to put up a zero in the fourth or they have failed.  Let's say Romero is facing Longoria, Zobrist and Upton.  When he faces Longoria, I don't want him thinking that a leadoff homer just above the fence and off the foul pole is a disastrous outcome, and that is somehow a whole lot worse than a leadoff walk on four pitches way outside the strike zone. 
Chuck - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#234136) #

I couldn't disagree more with this mindset.

Greg Maddux (whose name I utter whilst genuflecting) was once asked about what it's like to go up against such-and-such a  pitcher. He responded that he doesn't concern himself with the other starting pitcher, that he's only concerned about the other team's hitters.

Just how many things is a pitcher supposed to worry about? When the other team's pitcher is added to the list, that sounds like one too many.

rtcaino - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#234138) #

I'm pretty sure ‘The Mental ABC's of Pitching’ would suggest to completely disregarding any such considerations. All a pitcher can be concerned with are factors within their sphere of control. This would include throwing quality pitches, and exclude run support and the performance of the other pitcher.

China fan - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#234139) #
That's the theory.  But in reality, isn't it inevitable that a lot of pitchers will be more likely to "pitch to contact" if they've got an 8-run lead in the 6th inning?  They're not SUPPOSED to look at the scoreboard, but isn't it likely that they do?   Wouldn't the fans be slightly irate if a pitcher was nibbling the edges of the plate in hopes of a strikeout when he's got a big lead in the game?
rtcaino - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#234143) #

Ya for sure.

It works from that angle.

However, the "Holy Jeeze, this opposing pitcher is shutting us down, our offense looks useless and I have to pitch flawlessly" mind-set is less likely to facilitate peak performance. (IMO.)

rtcaino - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#234145) #

Though, I'm sure pitching coaches were prefer the pitcher just stick to the mandate and keep executing what they work on in practice.

Mike Green - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#234154) #
Good pitchers do adjust to the game situation.  If each starter has thrown 70 pitches through 6 innings in a 2-2 game, the avoidance of a single run being scored takes on increased importance as compared with an 8-0 game, and pitching patterns ought to reflect that. 

You do not want the starter worrying about the other pitcher, but the game situation is another story.

uglyone - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#234156) #
I think we all agree that Francisco should be our closer anyways, right? And that if he hadn't been injured he'd be our closer now?

As good a reliever as he is, Rauch's 89mph fastball is not going to get the job done there, especially in this division.

this is starting to get frustrating - having a very good bullpen should help in exactly the department where we still seem to struggle this year - winning close games.

we just have to start winning our fair share of the close ones, but year after year after year, we can't seem to do it.
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#234158) #
4-8 now in one run games.  Every year with this.

The frustrating thing is that even the 2003 Detroit Tigers could fluke into a winning record in them.

Magpie - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#234161) #
Greg Zaun said something to that effect about starting pitchers that floored me

That's how players think. It's the view from inside the forest. From one of the trees.
MatO - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#234162) #

I think Magpie did a study of one-run games.  Correct me if I'm wrong but essentially the study showed that good teams don't have particularly good records in one-run games because even games they lose they keep close.  Good teams are really good at blowouts.  Bad teams have better records in one-run games than you'd think because that's the only games they can win.  They aren't good enough to blow anyone out often.  I'm not sure I've worded this correctly but that's the general idea.

smcs - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#234163) #
As good a reliever as he is, Rauch's 89mph fastball is not going to get the job done there, especially in this division.

I don't think it's the speed of the pitches but the location that is troubling. He can throw 89 mph fastballs all he wants and be very effective, so long as he doesn't throw it right there. Doesn't matter how hard he throws, major league players will hit a pitch in that location very far very often.
Chuck - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#234166) #

That's how players think. It's the view from inside the forest. From one of the trees.

So that sound I heard was him falling?

Magpie - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#234168) #
I'm not sure I've worded this correctly but that's the general idea.

Yes. In essence, the biggest factor in one-run games is... luck. Dumb, random luck. If the game is close, random chance is large enough to overwhelm quality. One-run games drag everybody towards .500, so yes - lousy teams have better records in one-run games than they do in the rest of their games. And good teams have worse records.
Magpie - Wednesday, May 04 2011 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#234169) #
So that sound I heard was him falling?

That, or the sound of one hand clapping.
Alex Obal - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 05:28 AM EDT (#234187) #
Do pitchers systematically pitch better when they have the lead, after you adjust for their talent level and the hitters' talent level? I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility, and if it's true then Zaun is basically right.
John Northey - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#234188) #
Tampa has had pretty poor attendance eh? 1 game in the 30's, 4 in the 20's and 12 in the 10's. The lowest is 10,042 vs Minnesota.

For comparison, the Jays have a 40k+, 1 30k, 5 20k's, and 4 in the 10's with a low of 11,077.

Something is seriously wrong when a team that has 2 playoff appearances in the past 3 years, which is fighting for 1st place right now has such horrid attendance. This despite http://seatgeek.com/baseball-mlb-ticket-prices/ saying that the Jays are the MOST expense at $71.68 vs Tampa's 14th ranking $38.80
bpoz - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#234193) #
Good point/topic John Northey.
Too bad the TB residents don't appreciate their team. I always thought that TB's population was a lot of retirees and so they go out less.
Why are Jay's tickets the most expensive? Is it team costs?
Jay's attendance has improved this year over last year. Is it due to the anticipation of more wins because of last years 85 win record. Then last year's poor numbers would be due to 2009's 75 win record and the negative anticipation.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#234197) #
You also have to factor in that the Trop is a terrible ballpark, and apparently in a horrible location.  Since they haven't yet, I don't think they'll ever draw well there unless they get a new stadium in a better area.
BlueJayWay - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#234199) #
I've said this before, but the success of the Rays the last few years is wasted on that franchise.  If Baltimore or Toronto had done what they've done the last three seasons (two AL East titles), those ballparks would be hopping right now.
Chuck - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#234230) #
Greg Zaun said something to that effect about starting pitchers that floored me

That's how players think. It's the view from inside the forest. From one of the trees.

Before today's game, Jamie Campbell asked Zaun if Drabek should concern himself that he is facing Price. Zaun responded that Drabek shouldn't worry about that and should just focus on the TB hitters. This doesn't align with his earlier remarks that we have been commenting on.

Zaunie's a moving target. Stand still laddie.
John Northey - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#234235) #
As far as 'terrible ballpark' and 'terrible location' I give you Exhibition Stadium. Seats that didn't face the field (I sat in them a few times, twisted to see home plate), horrid weather, had to drive to get there (no subway), little to do in the area outside of a 2 week period in late summer.

Yet in 1988 after the Jays won a title, did mediocre (86 wins) then came so frustratingly close it hurt a lot in 1987 they had at least 20k come to every last one of the 81 home games in 1988 when they again came up short. Heck, in 1983 after finishing last every season to date they still had no game get less than 10,125 with 6 games over 40k. I guess for the absolute bottom 1981 would be there with little hope and a strike - yet no home game was below 11k. 1982 did see 10,087 for a game and just 3 games of 30k plus but that was the last of the last place years at the start of the franchise.

Tampa Bay = horrid market for baseball. It is insane that a team is there and not in Montreal where they supported winners at least (among league leaders in attendance in late 70's/early 80's when the team was very good but only made 1 playoff).
Magpie - Thursday, May 05 2011 @ 10:57 PM EDT (#234244) #
Seats that didn't face the field

Seats? You mean those long metal benches in right field.... with no back... facing the LF corner...
Mike Green - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#234254) #
It cost $5.50 to sit on one of those benches (which were a helluva lot closer to field level than the 500s of today), and they let you bring in good food from outside.  I wouldn't want to do it every night, but for a 20 year old with little money and a better back, it wasn't so bad.
Chuck - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#234256) #

they let you bring in good food from outside

There was a time when you could bring your own beer into Olympic Stadium, let alone food.

MatO - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#234257) #

It cost $5.50 to sit on one of those benches

That was a great price except that the left field beachers were only $2 and were regular seats and were covered.  A buddy of ours worked part-time at Dominion so he could get them for $1.  They were general admission but we always made sure someone got there early to save seats.  A $1 doubleheader.  The best deal of all time.

John Northey - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#234298) #
I think those were pre-1985 prices. I remember $4 for the bleachers and $8-11 for the (#&! benches (I hated those).

The rules for food were the same as today - soft only so you cannot hurt someone with them. However, today the rule is a lot more enforced than back then.

Btw, a factor for Jay prices to skyrocket is the dollar. Our dollar being worth $1.04 vs $0.61 US makes a major difference without Joe Fan really noticing (remember, all prices on all sites are in US dollars). Heck, if the US keeps getting deeper in debt and if (by some miracle) our national debt doesn't get worse then we could see a full reversal where the US dollar is worth just $0.61 Canadian (ie: our buck being worth $1.64 US) at which point the Jays could sign anyone they wish pretty much.
92-93 - Friday, May 06 2011 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#234304) #
I've never had an issue bringing outside food into the Dome. Not sure why people think it's a problem.
4 May 2011: Trop de trop | 40 comments | Create New Account
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