You need a 2b for next year.  You look around and see that the best 2b available via either trade or FA, is Kelly Johnson.

Problem is, Johnson will cost you a draft pick (I think?  Is this true).

So what do you do?  Trade two of your own FAs who you weren’t going to offer arbitration to so you can get Johnson, then resign him without giving up the draft pick.

For Arizona they get…. the hope that Hill bounces back to 2009.  I can’t imagine them picking up his option though.  I don't understand the trade from their point of view actually.

A head scratcher for sure. Toronto gets someone cheaper and... better?

Okay, maybe he has less upside but Hill's potential has been evaporating over the last couple of years.

Paul D probably has it correct.  And here's some support from MLBTR about AA's possible plan:   "maybe he's just more inclined to offer arbitration to Johnson than Hill."

Johnson is paid more than Hill? Really? Wow.

That sure takes the bloom off that deal.

....His slash lines aren't much better than Hill's right now....

Johnson currently has an OPS of .699 which isn't great, but it's more than 100 points better than Hill's current OPS of .584.  And as Mike pointed out, Johnson probably has a better chance of bouncing back to career norms than Hill.

Johnson is paid more than Hill? Really? Wow.

 That sure takes the bloom off that deal.

Just from a defensive standpoint, Johnson is worth more than Hill. Add in the potential for greater offense as well and this is a no brainer.

Hill fWAR 2010: 1.2

HillfWAR 2011: -0.5

Johnson fWAR 2010: 5.9

Johnson fWAR 2011: 1.6

"In other news, Brian Jeroloman has been called up"  ... as per China fan    

 I would imagine Molina has cleared waivers but isn't he a 'B' ? 

Sounds like a race to the bottom for these two guys.  Since the ASB:

Hill  .198  .248  .274

Johnson  .181  .246  .324

Now:
Adam Lind (drafted 2004, majors 2006)

tick tock tick tock

AA does it again. Kelly Johnson is a guy that I've followed since his early ATL days and I've always loved his patience and power from a non offensive position. When JP made a trade there would be 4000 comments and probably a 50/50 split. When AA makes a trade there are 40 comments of giddiness. Well 41 now.

Johnson looks to be just missing out on Type A FA status in the AL, but even with a resurgence down the stretch, looks like a longshot to catch those ahead of him.

It's probably a good situation, if he finishes strong, he may get Type A and would likely be able to decline Arb.  If he scuttles down the stretch, he's Type B, but doesn't cost a team a pick to sign.

The catching situation is interesting.  Anthopoulos said he called up Jeroloman because he projects as a back-up catcher and AA didn't want to interrupt the development of the younger prospects.  Molina is currently projected as a Type B catcher, and he could help a playoff-bound team, so he might have trade value now -- or the Jays could offer him arbitration (on the assumption that another team will probably offer him a better deal, on the strength of his good 2011 numbers) and collect the draft pick for him.  In either of those two scenarios, Jeroloman could back up JPA next season, since d'Arnaud is not ready for the majors.  In which case, it makes sense to promote him now, to acclimatize him to the majors.

Mcdonald spoke as if he expects to return and is just a rental for Az.

It was actually astonishing how explicitly he said so.  It's a nice testament to the organization to have a player get traded but have him treat it like a semester overseas.

Hill also expressed a very strong interest in returning (though without Johnny Mac's certainty), provided the D-backs decline his options.

....Hill also expressed a very strong interest in returning....

But that would seem very unlikely, assuming the Jays negotiate a new contract with Johnson.  If the Jays keep Johnson, then McDonald is the more likely guy to return, because he can back up all the infield positions, whereas Hill can't really play SS.

Oh, I am not saying it is now a BAD deal, just when I thought Johnson cost less it was an AMAZING deal.

...."d'Arnaud is not ready for the majors" is an interesting negotiating position....

Hmmm, are you suggesting d'Arnaud could have a shot at the Jays starting job out of spring training next season?  It would be quite a jump, and it would also require the Jays to trade JPA, no?  Because d'Arnaud has gotta play full-time somewhere, he's not going to be a back-up next season.

Checking Kelly Johnson's stats he has lost 75 points off his BA, and 83 points off his OBP and SLG.  Essentially his lower value this season is due to that lower BA.

Johnson's BABIP was .339 last year and just .257 this year.  If his luck changes, or if his swing gets "fixed", his value will move up.

Secondly, if AA was thinking of bringing Hill back next season, this move makes it cheaper and easier to do, assuming the D'Backs don't pick up Hill's option.  The Jays won't have to offer arbitration and there is no option hanging out there as a baseline.

I am super excited that we just got Johnson for Hill and McDonald.  I was actually looking over the 2B options for 2012 earlier this afternoon, and there really isn't a whole lot out there other than signing Kelly Johnson (even when the trade market is factored in, as it would be very hard to pull off a decent trade that involved getting back a guy like Rickie Weeks, Ian Kinsler, or even Brandon Phillips).  By trading for Johnson now, we put ourselves in a better situation with respect to possible compensation picks, and also might increase the odds of Johnson wanting to play in Toronto.

If our lineup next season, in some order, ends up including Escobar, Thames, Bautista, Lind, Lawrie, Rasmus, Encarnacion, Johnson, and Arencibia, then that's likely to be a very effective group.  The moves Anthopolous makes keep making me happy, and it's fun to be a Blue Jays fan right now.

It's a tough situation to handicap, but I think I prefer the draft pick and Aaron Hill on a one year deal next year to a reasonably priced multi-year deal for KJ. 

Who knows, Hill could have a good enough 2012 to preserve his type B status. (no one get their hopes up)

Fangraphs has concluded that the Jays won the trade: "That both Hill and Johnson will likely reach free agency next season, that Johnson is clearly a superior player right now, and that Johnson will net his employer more valuable compensatory picks puts the swap firmly in favor of the Jays."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/is-acquiring-hill-wise-for-the-diamondbacks/

I know little about arbitration, but $8 million seems like a hefty raise from $5.85 for a guy hitting .209.

As far as Towers' comments, what's he supposed to say "We're happy to have acquired a player who has an innate ability to hit infield flies and can consistently produce a BABIP 50 points below league average.... a player who has  learned to combine a lack of both power and patience"?

I imagine Johnson will probably be getting an arb offer of about $6 million and be asking for about $6.5, unless he really turns it on in the last month of the season.  His numbers this year are bad enough to negate the possibility of a major raise.  I'm sure the Jays would be comfortable with that if he accepted.  It's sort of a win/win, they either get draft pick compensation if he declines or they get Johnson for next year at a reasonable price (assuming they think he can bounce back from this year's results).

Sure, they're not going to pinch hit for Rasmus there unless he's injured.  Apparently, he jammed his wrist against the fence making a catch.  If he's going to miss a few games, they may want to call up Mastroianni to play CF and send Jeroloman back down.  Unless they want to put Jose in CF and use Teahen in RF.  Once Johnson gets here, McCoy could play CF I guess.

Nice game for Carreno today.  He seems to have pretty good movement on his pitches. 

Morrow is frustrating.  I really thought he had put it all together in the 2nd half of last season.  Not sure where that guy went.  Hopefully he resurfaces next year.

.....he didn't want to risk KJ accepting arb....

Not sure if I understand your point.  If he thought KJ was in permanent decline, couldn't he have simply not offered him arbitration?  Nothing compelled him to keep Johnson on the team, as far as I know.   And he faces the same risk with Hill that he did with KJ:  in either case, offering arbitration has the risk that it would keep a declining player on the team.  So I don't see how Arizona is further ahead at this point, except that they have a second SS for their playoff run.

Orlando Hudson- drafted in 1997          2002-2005 2nd base

end of 2005 Traded with Miguel Batista for Troy Glaus and Sergio Santos

2008 Sergio Santos (minors) lost on waivers to Minnesota

2006 and 2007 Troy Glaus 3rd base

January 2008 Troy Glaus traded for Scott Rolen

Scott Rolen 2008 and 2009 3rd base

July 2009 Scott Rolen traded for Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke and Zach Stewart

Josh Roenicke 2009 and 2010 limited bullpen time

June 2011 selected off waivers by Colorado

Edwin Encarnacion 2009 and 2010 with the Jays

November 2010 selected off waivers by Oakland (signed as a free agent but the book closes at this point)

Zach Stewart 2011 a few starts and traded to the Chicago WS with Jason Frasor for Edwin Jackson and Mark Teahen

Mark Teahen currently with the team

Edwin Jackson with Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson, Scrabble and 3 PTBNL traded for Trever Miller, Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet and PJ Walters

PJ Walters sent to the minors

Tallet is on the DL

Rasmus is currently with the team

Trever Miller released August 2011

To recap, drafting Hudson back in 1997(!) has come to this point with PJ Walters in the minors, Mark Teahen, Brian Tallet and Colby Rasmus. This chain also doesn't seem to be ending any time soon either.

If Johnson is a Type A, doesn't this make it much more likely that Anthopoulos offers him arbitration in the hopes that he refuses to accept it?  And given the great shortage of free-agent 2Bs, isn't it quite possible that Johnson signs elsewhere?  In which case, the Jays get a nice draft pick, but they're back to zero in their search for a 2B for next season, despite our assumption yesterday that KJ is the upgrade that we've all been looking for. 

Of course Johnson might prefer to accept a one-year arb deal, so that he can prove his worth and get a better free-agent deal at the end of 2012.  That's possible, but far from certain.   If he's a Type A, there is clearly much less chance that Anthopoulos offers him a multi-year deal, and a greater risk that he departs at the end of this season, leaving the Jays scrambling again for a 2B for next year.

To me it is simple.  Two 2nd basemen, who are very simular in so many ways, needed a change of scenary.  The 2 GM's obliged.  AA needed to threw in MacDonald to make the deal move. 

In the end Kelly Johnson = Aaron Hill. 

In the end, I wish the trade works out well for both teams.  I hope Hill hits like he did a couple years ago and Johnson hits to his potential. 

Of course Johnson might prefer to accept a one-year arb deal, so that he can prove his worth and get a better free-agent deal at the end of 2012.

That suits our needs too, and we still get the comp picks (assuming no ill affects of the new CBA).

The one thing I found interesting was how they had an interview with Hill and MacDonald after the trade.  Typically, the interviews are done as players are running to the airport. 

Might be a good poll question.  We haven't had a Batters Box poll for quite a while.  The options might be:  Do you offer arbitration to Johnson if he's a Type A?  Do you offer arbitration to him if he's a Type B?  Or do you try to negotiate a contract with him to guarantee that he fills the 2B hole for the Jays in 2012 and possibly beyond?

I'm also wondering if uglyone can weigh in on this question, since he's been the most vocal booster of KJ here.  (And I'm not necessarily disagreeing with his analysis -- I actually found it quite persuasive).  Uglyone, do you think AA should negotiate a multi-year deal with Johnson, even though it eliminates the possibility of getting a draft pick for him?  Or do you think AA should prioritize the draft pick by offering arbitration to him, at the risk of seeing him disappear to another team?

If Johnson is a Type A, doesn't this make it much more likely that Anthopoulos offers him arbitration in the hopes that he refuses to accept it? 

Players are more likely to refuse arbitration as a Type B than a Type A. We saw this just last year with both Frasor and Francisco accepting as Type A's.. More teams will be willing to sign a player if thay do not have to give up a pick, especially for a lower tier player like Johnson. O-dog found out a couple of years ago the danger of refusing arb as a Type A - no one wanted to give up a pick for him.

If I'm AA, I offer arb and don't really care much whether he accepts or declines. If he accepts, they can work out a one year deal, giving Hech a full year in Vegas. If KJ declines, AA will have to find a stopgap 2B, but has an extra comp pick.

I can confirm Mastroianni has in fact been sent to Toronto in case Rasmus' injury requires a DL stay.

Eric Arce has also been sent up to Bluefield from the GCL.

Hypobole, those are good points, but you're slightly missing my point, perhaps because I didn't express it clearly enough.  I was suggesting that Anthopoulos would be more likely to offer arbitration to a Type A free agent because it would reap a better draft-pick reward.  Regardless of the likelihood of him accepting arb or not, a Type A free agent would produce better draft-pick compensation, so that could tilt Anthopoulos more in the direction of offering arb -- rather than trying to negotiate a contract -- because the reward is greater.

You also suggested that Anthopoulos won't care much about whether Johnson accepts or declines.  I disagree, because I think AA always has a preference, and it's always possible for him to figure out the smarter of two options, if he does enough calculating and researching. 

As for the separate question of whether Johnson would accept arbitration or not:  I guess one comparison is Jason Frasor, who was a Type A last year.  He didn't find much of a market for his services, so he accepted arbitration.  But there was a glut of relievers on the free-agent market last year.  There isn't a glut of good 2Bs on the market this year.  Scarcity creates demand, and Johnson might find a market for his services -- especially if he's a Type B, but maybe even if he's a Type A.

I like Kelly Johnson a lot, and if the money is reasonable, I'd be interested in signing him long term.  I don't view him as a guy that's on the same level as Hill.  On their careers, Johnson has been a better defender than Hill.  For their careers, as hitters, Johnson also has a significant edge in both OBP (+.24) and SLG (+.29).  This season, Johnson has been a clearly superior hitter (mostly due to around +.100 SLG).  In Johnson's current down year his isolated OBP and SLG are both very good; he's still taking walks and getting extra base hits.  His struggles are simply due to a career low .209 BA.  This is similar to Hill's 2010, true, but I believe that Johnson is unlikely to completely crater like Hill did in 2011.  I believe that Johnson is likely to be at least a league average 2B is 2012 (and he's been around average this current season).  The exciting part is that he has a decent chance to put up elite numbers for us if things go our way.

I do think that Johnson is a good long term fit, even though we have Hechevarria in the system.  First, there's no guarantee that Hechevarria's bat will become good enough for him to be an everyday player.  The bar for his offensive numbers may be low (if the reports on his defense are accurate), but he still has to have some kind of success at the plate up here to be a regular, and giving him plenty of time in AAA would be fine with me.  If Hechevarria does eventually show he's ready for major league action, then you just make a trade, let Hechevarria break in slowly (in more heavily used McDonald type role), or move one of the three to some other position.  In 3 out of the last 5 years, for example, Johnson would have been valuable even in left field.

Congratulations to Darrin Mastroianni, who will finally see the major leagues tonight.  He's officially been recalled and added to tonight's roster, since Kelly Johnson won't be arriving until tomorrow.  It's still unclear whether Rasmus needs to go on the DL but presumably a decision will be made on that before tomorrow.  Even if Rasmus is good to go, it might be Jeroloman who is demoted, rather than Mastroianni, when Johnson arrives.

It's a nice promotion for Mastroianni, who has been on the 40-man roster for a while but has probably been wondering if he'd ever see the major leagues.  However, he's unlikely to stay up for a long time, unless Rasmus needs to be DL'ed.  Even then, it's quite possible that McCoy would see the bulk of the CF action while Mastroianni might be on the bench.  But at a minimum, he's a great late-inning pinch-running option.

In AA's mind, I'd say he feels like he just traded Hill and JMac for a first round pick.

Except that he wouldn't have cost a pick to sign.  He was a type B in the NL and wasn't getting any better.

AA will have to ask himself in the offseason whether signing KJ is worth two high draft picks (opportunity cost).

meh, he was borderline even after an epic slump, and odds are he'd improve his status over the last month and a half.

he was outside type A, to be specific.  so it's projection that AA saved a draft pick.  just a small point, really.  he actually saved some amount of value less than a draft pick.

and if we project that he would have rebounded to regain his type A status, then he would also be likely to decline arb and garner two high picks in free agency (to another poster's point).

There's no team that's going to give up a draft pick to sign Kelly Johnson coming off the year he's currently having.  If arbitration is offered, it's going to be accepted.  No way Johnson turns down a $6 million contract.

Far from a certainty.  But regardless, the Jays could live with him for a year in hopes he regains his marketability or cut him in ST for $1m and sign a cheap alternative.

The D'Backs have a terrific pitching staff.  You have to factor in the very hitter friendly park they play in.  Kennedy, Collmentor, Hudson and Saunders have ERA's of 3.09, 3.34, 3.83, and 3.94.  They have a truckload of relievers with ERA's under 3.00,  something like 6 or 7 of them, including 4 who have opponent's batting averages of under .220.  In that park, those are outstanding numbers.  Kennedy has been one of the best starters in the league this year.  Glad the Yankees didn't hang on to him.

They don't have a lot of offense, particularly when you allow for the park, but Upton is having a fantastic season.  Montero is one of the better hitting catchers.  Parra and Roberts have OPS's between .750 and .800.  Young is having a decent offensive season.

They have a similar type team to the Giants, who have outstanding starters, an extremely deep bullpen, and a mediocre offense.  The Giants need to get Beltran healthy.  I see they claimed Heath Bell on waivers from SD today - they must be trying to replace Wilson, who is currently on the DL.  Will be interesting to see if they work out a deal.  Injuries have really hurt them in a big way this year, and there's not much left on the farm after the trades to get Beltran, Keppinger, Cabrera, Sanchez, Ross, etc over the last 2 seasons. 

I could see the Giants being interested in Hechavarria and either Thames or Snider sometime next year for one of their top 5 starters if Hechavarria continues to hit well in AAA.

I read quotes by him and it sounds more like he is getting happy about goign to a place with a hitting plan that matches his own.

Also, they are no longer asking him to play LF.