Timmeh's days of dominance may, regrettably, be over. His off-field 4:20 persona will appeal to people in vastly different measures, but as an on-field performer he was always enjoyable to watch. Rising HR and BB rates have been his undoing, even as he continues to strike out a man per inning. A reinvention as a reliever, with an eye to eventually being good enough to close games, may be the path his career takes.

If SanFran is sick of Lincecum then send him here.  His xFIP is 3.50 and never has been as high as 4.  His FIP is 3.80 and was 4.18 last year otherwise was in 'wow' category.  He is just signed for this year then is a free agent.  $22 mil for this year. 

The Jays nightmare, Romero, is signed for 2013-2015 with an option for 2016 for a total of $23.1 mil.  Lincecum has more of the $22 paid for than Romero of the $23, and Romero looks a lot more lost than Lincecum but if he is at the stage of being booed (no idea if he is) then maybe the Jays could say 'our problem for yours' and toss in something else to make it work.  I could easily see Lincecum being effective as his non H/9 R/9 figures say he should be effective.  Maybe they'd like a catcher who can get RBI's given their backup is Guillermo Quiroz (yes, the ex-Jay super-prospect who has a lifetime 46 OPS+ after having an 889 OPS in AA at 21 years old and reached the majors at 22).  Then Buster Posey could play at 1B more often.

Wow, just noticed how poorly Matt Cain is doing this year.  5.45 ERA due mainly to an increased HR rate (1.6 which is very high) even though his BB/9 and K/9 are better than his career averages.  Mix in his being signed for 5 more years at $20 mil per and you got a 'yikes' situation.

Hmm... Lincecum and Cain for Romero & Buehrle?  Saves money for SanFran but gives the Jays better potential.  Not a chance, but fun to dream.

Romero came to the Majors and was successful despite having a delivery full of flaws.   Lincecum came to the Majors and was successful despite having a delivery full of flaws.   (And you can find others.)   They were successful when so few are.   No one was willing to make the necessary correction to establish a smoother delivery, because (being not very good at the jobs) they were afraid of making a mistake.   No one wanted to take a chance and 3-4 years later they are of little or no value to anyone.   Toronto, San Francisco and others must take full blame and responsibility for the inaction.

no guarantees that they ever would have reached the level of performance they both did without that delivery.

And that's why everybody did nothing.

Hmm.  Could be an interesting night, MLB news-wise.

Looks like Melky could be gone for the rest of the season if this Biogenis thing happens.

Melky, and Grandal, have already be suspended for the "Biogenesis thing". They could face extra discipline for lying, if they did so.

For all those Lincecum admirers, realize that going from sfg/nl to tor/al you should add about 1.5 runs per 9 innings.

Unlike Romero, difference between Lincecum in prime and current Lincecum is almost entirely due to loss of velocity. Beware one size fits all explanations.

MLB must be very careful about Double Jeapardy for a few people in the Biogenisis Disaster.   This is a Bud-lite ego issue, more than it is anything else.   The Melky Supension last year was related.   Is he exempt because he's already served, or out for 100 more?

Robert, do you have a link for the 1.5 R/Game you're quoting?  That seems much much higher than I'd heard elsewhere.

Comments about Romero's delivery pre-draft said it was "wonky" (my term) and that was mentioned in a post some time ago (I can't remember when).   If he'd have had his delivery reworked game 1 in the minors, is he pitching his 7th or 8th year up here?   I think so.

Emilio Bonifacio. Why oh why must you be such a liability?

Paul,

Where have you heard elsewhere?

Remember it d h+ rogers v at&t+ jays defense+aleast offenses.

Robert, I missed the rest of your post somehow.   I was only thinking of the NL to AL change.  (Based on what I've heard from Corey Schwartz) 

If [Romero]'d have had his delivery reworked game 1 in the minors, is he pitching his 7th or 8th year up here?

Seeing as how it it's less than eight years since the Blue Jays originally signed him after taking him in the draft that seems somewhat unlikely.

With respect to the 1.5 runsd per game involved in Lincecum moving from SF to Tor - I figure just switching leagues and parks would be a swing of about 0.9 per game, slightly more because of the parks than the leagues. If you want to inflate it more because of the Toronto defense (if we may use that word with a straight face) or the level of competition he'd be facing (which I'm not quite as sold on) - seems fairly reasoable to me.

I'm pretty sure I used to be better at both spelling and catching typos. Old age, kids. This is what it looks like. Senility, impotence, death. Your turn will come...

Banner year for umpires.

For team defense though you don't just consider the nightmare at 2B, you also factor in that we have very solid guys at 3B (Lawrie) and CF (Rasmus) while Encarnacion, Bautista, and Cabrera are acceptable as is Kawasaki.  The teams defensive efficiency (how many balls in play are made into outs) is #14 in MLB at .707.  SanFran is #20 at 0.705 (really, not a significant difference statistically).  Detroit & Houston are at the bottom (0.686) while Pittsburgh is #1 (might explain their good start - 0.734).  Catcher and 2B suck, but the rest has not been that bad, at least as far as making outs is concerned (which is what matters really).

The NL to AL spread was traditionally 1/2 a run, but with interleague play now I'd suspect that would be less than it was pre-interleague. 

Now, if you check spreads for the 3 imports this year - Dickey is 2.45 higher, Buehrle is 1.68 higher and Johnson was 3.05 higher before tonight (2.03 as I type this).  All up but some would be nature shifts.  Vs career figures you get Dickey 1.12, Buehrle 1.56, and Johnson 2.61.  But honestly, would anyone have said pre-season that Dickey and Buehrle would have ERA's like they do?  Did anyone?  Bueller?

I'd say 1/2 to 1 run in ERA is all you should ever add on unless there is something major to consider (extreme park difference for example).  Now, SF is an extreme pitchers park (89-92 park factor) vs SkyDome (103-104).   Lincecum before tonight had a 5.12 ERA for a 67 ERA+, Dickey was at 5.18 for a 83 ERA+.  A 67 on the Jays would be about 6.80. 

Huh.  What do you know.  In the end I showed a 1.70 spread for the same ERA+ between the Jays and SF when I was trying hard to show something smaller. 

Of course, for Lincecum as I pointed out earlier he has a much better FIP and xFIP than his ERA would suggest.  Romero was the opposite in his last good year (2011).  I'd say a one for one deal would favour the Jays, and unless SF is really sick of Lincecum's act I don't see that happening.

On a rare positive note; JJ looks like an ace tonight.

The NL to AL spread was traditionally 1/2 a run

It's been less than that for a long time. The parks are a bigger factor than the league.

I regard Arencibia, Lind, Encarnacion (1b or 3b), Bonifcacio, Izsturis, Kawasaki, and DeRosa - all of 'e, - as below average defensive players. The outfield is better, but none of them is ever, ever winning a Gold Glove. And while Lawrie's actually good, he's going to miss a quarter of the games for one reason or another. Anyway, no pitcher who doesn't strike out a zillion batters can be happy about working in front of this bunch.

Three typos in that last one - maybe it is this ancient keyboard.

Tim Lincecum would like to thank the Blue Jays for helping him find his old form, and he hopes to build on what he's done tonight.

Funny, I didn't miss Rajai Davis at all. Not one little bit.

unless SF is really sick of Lincecum's act I don't see that happening.

I certainly can't see them offering him arbitration, in which case he'll be on the market this winter. But it's hard to imagine any trade scenario that makes sense. The only teams interested in picking up an expensive short-term rental, assuming Lincecum is pitching well enough to be an attractive rental, are the teams that are contending for something this year. Like the Giants.

Another game lost by way of error.

Der doesn't deal with double plays and I can't remember any team being s bad as the 2013 jays are at that. Der also doesn't measure catcher defense very much. You should also subtract pop ups as they are almost auto outs and linedrives which are mostly defenive luck.

At the risk of sounding like Wilner, you could easily fathom the Jays being 4-0 on this trip. If routine defensive plays are made  and Melky Cabrera doesn't swing at a high 2-0 pitch with the bases loaded and (GIDP), there's a good chance they would be, in my opinion.

Note also that NL relievers rarely face a pitcher batting so almost the entire benefit of the pitcher batting is visited on the NL starter. This means that they will have a greater share per 9 innings of the league offensive difference than the overall difference.

Petey

That's precisely the point. The defense is so bad, particularly in an NL spacious park with EE at third that they are arguably losing strings of games because of defensive play. A contending team should NEVER allow that to happen.

I'm pretty sure I used to be better at both spelling and catching typos. Old age, kids. This is what it looks like. Senility, impotence, death. Your turn will come...

You forgot to mention hearing loss, incontinence and grumpiness at all of the above.  Never mind, the forgetfulness is part of the package too. 

It was good to see Josh Johnson pitching effectively again.  I see the makings of a very good team here, and that makes it especially frustrating that obvious weaknesses are not fixed with talent close at hand. 

It was good to see Josh Johnson pitching effectively again.

What a tease, eh? The everything goes well scenario for the Jays this year had them rolling out a consistent 5-man rotation where at least 4 of the cogs could reliably be counted on for a strong effort most nights (with Romero the admitted wild card). Not quite vintage Atlanta Braves, necessarily, but something cut from a similar cloth. That would have been a fun team to watch. This one? Not so much.

Quiz: On how many potential groundballs this year has Bonifacio dropped the easy groundball, having to settle for just one out? If he were a little leaguer, he'd be instructed to keep his eye on the ball, catch it first and then throw it. This most fundamental of fielding skills eludes him.

Sadly with the Jays 11 1/2 out of first and 9 out of 2nd/3rd (2nd wildcard) they are out of it unless a miracle occurs (ala Red Sox 1978). 

What does that mean?  It means that if Johnson gets going he becomes trade bait but without a ton of value unless a team thinks he is doing well enough to be worth arbitration or can sign him long term right away.  It means the Jays start going through trade possibilities. 

Going by salary...
Bautista: signed through 2015 with option for 2016 all at $14 mil per ($1 mil buyout for 2016).  Don't see him going anywhere
Johnson: $13.75 this year, free agent needing to be offered around the same to get draft picks.  Strong trade possibility
Buehrle: $11 this year, $37 mil over next 2 years.  Ugh.  If someone would take that contract the Jays would be more than happy to send him away I suspect
Reyes: Signed through 2017 option for 2018, not going anywhere
Cabrera: $8 mil this and next year.  If he isn't suspended and keeps hitting like he did in May (821 OPS, then he is trade bait with Gose & Sierra almost set to step in and others (Davis, Bonifacio) able to cover as well.  If he is suspended then the Jays should give either Gose or Sierra the job full time until he comes back.
Encarnacion: $27 mil between 2013-2015 $10 mil in 2016 or $2 mil buyout.  For the right offer but I don't see it happening
Morrow, Dickey: nah
Lind: $5 mil this year, $7 next or $2 mil buyout, etc for next two years after that.  Hitting well, if he keeps it up then his option is worth it.  Would anyone trade for him though?
Rasmus: arbitration years still, free agent after next season - could be traded but I suspect AA would have to be very impressed to do so
Janssen, Happ: Nah
Izturis: if anyone wants his contract they can have it
Oliver: could be mixed into a trade
Santos: hurt
Bonifacio: doubtful
Davis: if only
McGowan: hah
Blanco: hahaha
DeRosa: toss in for a trade

Rest are minimum salary guys or close to it so only available if needed or a 'too good to pass up' trade comes along.

Johnson, Cabrera, Lind, Oliver are the prime trade candidates I see.  Each can fill a hole for a contender without hurting the Jays in 2014.Cabrera & Lind have the advantage of a deal in place for 2014. 

The puzzle with Bonifacio this year is how a player with his speed would manage to turn only 2% of his ground balls into infield hits (1 of 49 ground balls).  For his career, the figure is 11%.  Maybe it is just bad luck, but it seems to me watching him that he is slow out of the box.  I don't know if that was always the case, or perhaps his knee injury has left him with some residual acceleration issues in some body positions.  

No need to blow up the team. Even if this year was a struggle, the pieces are in place for next year to still be good, provided Dickey and Reyes are better. I'm all for shipping some pieces like Johnson/Buerhle, but with some of our younger pitchers coming back and players like Gose looking better I think this team should be good next year, even if this year has been a lot of bad luck and suckage.

I don't see the Jays blowing it up.  AA's not going to want to after going all in in the off season, and he'll want next year at least to see how things go.  And even if he did want to blow it up, I doubt Rogers would pull the plug right after the investment they just made.  I think they finally see the value in having a good team here and they're not going to kill the growing excitement (granted tempered somewhat by this start) by selling off and doing a rebuild now.

While Johnson may be trade bait, his struggles this year might also open up a window to sign him for a reasonable amount.