Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Weird Scenes Inside the SkyDome

(Hey, it just sounds better than "Inside the Rogers Centre.")

Anyway, the Jays have been playing full-time at their current digs since the 1990 season. Certain trends have been established. But what Toronto's pitchers have been doing at the Rogers Centre this season hasn't been seen before.

The RC is a decent home run park. Not ridiculously great, but pretty good. Since 1990, there have been 8125 HRs hit in Blue Jays games and 4268 of them (52.5%) were hit at home. Which means, of course, that 3857 (47.5%) were hit in road games. This characteristic of the Dome-by-the-Lake has helped the Jays hitters (who have hit 52.9% of their HRs at home) just slightly more than it's hurt their pitchers (who've allowed 52.1% of their HRs at home.)

Park factors are not constant from year to year. There have been a number of seasons the Jays hit or allowed (or both) more HRs in their road games than they did at home. Just five years ago, the 2008 pitching staff allowed 78 HRs on the road and just 56 (41.8) at home. Whereas In 1993, on their way to a championship, Jays pitchers allowed 83 of their 134 HRs at home, a whopping 60.4%.

The hitters have had similar swings - the 1999 team hit 116 HRs on the road and just 96 (45.3%) at home. They were happiest at home in 2006, when they hit 121 (60.8%) of their 199 HRs at home.

But we ain't never seen nothing like this. The 2013 pitching staff has allowed 133 HRs, and 92 of them - 69.2% - were hit at the Rogers Centre. Huh? The jaw drops, in confusion and bewilderment.

I don't know what's behind this, if anything, but I promise you this - it's a one-time fluke.

Data Tables, of course...

PITCHERS    Home    Pct        Road    Pct        Total

1990          82    .573    |    61    .427    |    143
1991          72    .595    |    49    .405    |    121
1992          60    .484    |    64    .516    |    124
1993          81    .604    |    53    .396    |    134
1994          64    .504    |    63    .496    |    127
1995          79    .545    |    66    .455    |    145
1996         102    .545    |    85    .455    |    187
1997          72    .431    |    95    .569    |    167
1998          77    .456    |    92    .544    |    169
1999          93    .487    |    98    .513    |    191
2000          92    .472    |   103    .528    |    195
2001          84    .509    |    81    .491    |    165
2002          89    .503    |    88    .497    |    177
2003         107    .582    |    77    .418    |    184
2004          93    .514    |    88    .486    |    181
2005         103    .557    |    82    .443    |    185
2006          94    .508    |    91    .492    |    185
2007          83    .529    |    74    .471    |    157
2008          56    .418    |    78    .582    |    134
2009          90    .497    |    91    .503    |    181
2010          81    .540    |    69    .460    |    150
2011          95    .531    |    84    .469    |    179
2012         102    .500    |   102    .500    |    204
2013          92    .692    |    41    .308    |    133

Total       2043    .521    |  1875    .479    |    3918

HITTERS    Home    Pct        Road    Pct        Total

1990          93    .557    |    74    .443    |    167
1991          75    .564    |    58    .436    |    133
1992          79    .485    |    84    .515    |    163
1993          90    .566    |    69    .434    |    159
1994          63    .548    |    52    .452    |    115
1995          73    .521    |    67    .479    |    140
1996          87    .492    |    90    .508    |    177
1997          68    .463    |    79    .537    |    147
1998         112    .507    |   109    .493    |    221
1999          96    .453    |   116    .547    |    212
2000         134    .549    |   110    .451    |    244
2001          94    .482    |   101    .518    |    195
2002         102    .545    |    85    .455    |    187
2003          94    .495    |    96    .505    |    190
2004          80    .552    |    65    .448    |    145
2005          76    .559    |    60    .441    |    136
2006         121    .608    |    78    .392    |    199
2007          90    .545    |    75    .455    |    165
2008          69    .548    |    57    .452    |    126
2009         104    .498    |   105    .502    |    209
2010         146    .568    |   111    .432    |    257
2011         103    .554    |    83    .446    |    186
2012         102    .515    |    96    .485    |    198
2013          74    .544    |    62    .456    |    136

Total       2225    .529    |  1982    .471    |    4207

EVERYBODY    Home    Pct        Road    Pct        Total

1990         175    .565    |   135    .435    |    310
1991         147    .579    |   107    .421    |    254
1992         139    .484    |   148    .516    |    287
1993         171    .584    |   122    .416    |    293
1994         127    .525    |   115    .475    |    242
1995         152    .533    |   133    .467    |    285
1996         189    .519    |   175    .481    |    364
1997         140    .446    |   174    .554    |    314
1998         189    .485    |   201    .515    |    390
1999         189    .469    |   214    .531    |    403
2000         226    .515    |   213    .485    |    439
2001         178    .494    |   182    .506    |    360
2002         191    .525    |   173    .475    |    364
2003         201    .537    |   173    .463    |    374
2004         173    .531    |   153    .469    |    326
2005         179    .558    |   142    .442    |    321
2006         215    .560    |   169    .440    |    384
2007         173    .537    |   149    .463    |    322
2008         125    .481    |   135    .519    |    260
2009         194    .497    |   196    .503    |    390
2010         227    .558    |   180    .442    |    407
2011         198    .542    |   167    .458    |    365
2012         204    .507    |   198    .493    |    402
2013         166    .617    |   103    .383    |    269

Total       4268    .525    |  3857    .475    |    8125

So yeah - the 2013 staff has already allowed more HRs at home than half the staffs that have ever played here. And they've still got two months to work with. But away from home, they've been positively stingy with the long ball.

We might as well look at this year's HR splits for individual pitchers:

Pitcher      Home          Road           Total

Dickey        18    0.750    6    0.250    24
Buehrle        8    0.500    8    0.500    16
Johnson       11    0.786    3    0.214    14
Morrow         8    0.667    4    0.333    12
Rogers         5    0.500    5    0.500    10
Ortiz          6    0.857    1    0.143    7
Redmond        3    0.500    3    0.500    6
Oliver         3    0.600    2    0.400    5
Loup           4    1.000    0    0.000    4
Wang           1    0.250    3    0.750    4
Bush           4    1.000    0    0.000    4
Happ           2    0.667    1    0.333    3
Cecil          2    0.667    1    0.333    3
Lincoln        3    1.000    0    0.000    3
Delabar        1    0.500    1    0.500    2
Perez          2    1.000    0    0.000    2
Wagner         2    1.000    0    0.000    2
McGowan        2    1.000    0    0.000    2
Gonzalez       0    0.000    2    1.000    2
Janssen        1    1.000    0    0.000    1
Jeffress       1    1.000    0    0.000    1
Jenkins        0    0.000    1    1.000    1
Santos         1    1.000    0    0.000    1
Romero         1    1.000    0    0.000    1
Weber          1    1.000    0    0.000    1
Germano        1    1.000    0    0.000    1
Nolin          1    1.000    0    0.000    1
                    
              92    0.692   41    0.308  133

Obviously, a significant contribution was made by the Gone-And-Not-Likely-To-Be-Seen-Again Gang - Ortiz and Bush gave up 11 HRs, 10 of them at home. (On the other hand, Wang and Gonzalez gave up 6 HRs, just 1 at home).

Still, the most obvious problem has been with two of the starters who came over from the NL. R.A. and Dickey and Josh Johnson have been ambushed by the Dome, allowing 29 HRs there and just 9 on the road. Mark Buehrle and Esmil Rogers have bucked this trend stoutly. Buehrle of course spent almost his entire career in the AL, pitching half his games at US Cellular. The White Sox home is actually a pretty decent pithcer's park but it's also a very good place to hit home runs. That's what Buehrle learned how to pitch in the majors, his coping mechanisms are quite well established...

While Dickey and Johnson may be adjusting to some kind of culture shock - "WTF? That ball is an easy out at Citi Field!" - it certainly doesn't explain what's happened to a big chunk of the bullpen. The current crew - Janssen, Delabar, Oliver, Loup, Cecil, Perez, and McGowan have allowed 19 HRs, 15 of them at home. The recently departed Lincoln and Wagner allowed 5 HRs, all at home.

Maybe they're doing something with the air-conditioning. And they're doing it wrong. I dunno.

Posted by Magpie on Wednesday, July 31 2013 @ 09:10 PM EDT.

Weird Scenes Inside the SkyDome | 21 comments | Create New Account

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Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 03:59 AM EDT (#277366) #

Would adding natural grass help or hinder? Was there an upgrade in the HVAC system? Changes were made to Outfield area, it this it?

Something needs to be done, or Toronto will have trouble winning consistently at Home.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#277367) #

Anyone who could get words to the Team should mention this to them.

John Northey - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#277368) #

Lots of factors could mess up one year park factors - from weather to how often the dome is closed to plain old bad luck. No question the dome is a home run park though, thus guys who give up lots of fly balls are not a good idea in this park, and hitters who loft the ball are a good idea. Unless something changed this year (and nothing did that I'm aware of) then it could just be statistical noise - very loud noise but noise none the less.

Looking at Fangraphs which pitchers (20+ IP) have the highest GB rates?
60%+: Wang, Perez
50%+: Loup, Cecil,
45%+: Oliver, Janssen, Rogers, Buehrle, Johnson (last two 0.2/0.3 below 45)
34-41%: Dickey, Ortiz, Lincoln, Morrow, Redmond
Sub 30: Delabar, Happ

Hrm... any patterns? Generally (with Johnson and Wang being exceptions) 45%+ for GB rate seems fairly successful in Toronto. Delabar is the only one below that with major success but has and unsustainable 4.0% HR/FB rate and Happ has a 5.6% rate. Only Janssen is close to them and actually lower at 3.7% (uh oh). Cecil & Lincoln are also sub-10%. The xFIP (which normalizes FB rate) seems to think 11% is normal but 10 of the 16 pitchers with 20+ IP for the Jays are over that rate with the worst rates belonging to (in order) Wang, Johnson, Ortiz, Oliver, Morrow all over 15%. Last year for all pitchers with 160+ IP just 5 had HR/FB rates over 15% over 91 pitchers, just 2 with 17%+ (Ervin Santana and Henderson Alverez). This year Alverez in Tampa has 38 IP and 0 HR given up thus an ERA of 2.61.

Chuck - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#277369) #

Maybe somebody can get words to the guy in the white shirt and then he can signal them to the team.

John Northey - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 09:16 AM EDT (#277370) #

FYI: on the low end over 160+ IP last year just 1 pitcher was below 6%, at 5.8% (Gio Gonzalez) with just 7 of 91 below 8% (shockingly no Jays).
Go down to 50 IP and you get 326 pitchers with 6 over 20% (peak of 24%) with 41 over 15% (12.6%). Other end has a low of 2.1% (Brandon League) with 13 sub 5% and 35 below 8%. The only Jay below 8%? Darrin Oliver who this year has had a few issues.as his HR/FB rate jumped to 16.1%.

So next year Johnson and Morrow should be helped due to this effect having some randomness in it, while Delabar and Janssen should be hurt by it.

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#277371) #

I'm certain - as sure as eggs is eggs - that it's a one-year fluke. But it's a large thing, weird and inexplicable as it is. Only three pitching staffs in the majors have allowed fewer HRs on the road than the Jays: Colorado, St.Louis, and the Dodgers. But no one - not even Houston - have allowed more at home, and it isn't even close (the Astros have allowed 79 HRs at Enron Memorial.)

Chuck - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#277374) #

All teams' pitchers log more innings at home than on the road because when you lose on the road, you usually don't pitch in the 9th. So roughly speaking, pitchers log about 5% more innings in home games, meaning they should yield 5% more HR at home than on the road. Of course, that only puts a tiny dent into explaining the Jays' current season.

As a corollary, teams bat in about 5% fewer innings in home games than in road games, which slightly throws off comparisons of R/G at home vs. the road.

In both above cases, normalization should be introduced so that measurements are on a per 9 IP basis.

/pedantry

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#277375) #

/pedantry

Yup, couldn't be bothered!

In unrelated stuff, Bill James on his website (I pay for it, and you should too!) got interested in finding tough stretches of schedule. So he concocted a rough and ready tool to gauge how tough a particular game might be (an .570 plus opponent means such-and-such, a .500 plus means such-and-such, and all road games are tougher, and so on.) He then went swooping through the last 60 years to find the toughest schedule patch faced by anyone. Which turned out to be an early season stretch for the 1978 Brewers or something.

But in the current century, he identified the two toughest bits of schedule encountered by anyone as a tied between a) the 2009 Oakland A's from July 6 through July 30, and b) the 2008 Blue Jays from August 16 through September 14.

Whoa, thought I. But it was quite nasty indeed, not that any of us seemed to notice at the time. Of those 28 games, 15 were against teams who won 95 game that year (Boston and Tampa); the other teams faced were the Yankees and White Sox (89 wins) and the Twins (88 wins.) And 16 of the 28 games were on the road.

How did they do? Really, really well. They went 18-10 in that stretch, with a 10 game winning streak in the midst of it all.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#277376) #

It's hard to ascertain what the reason might be. You might think that humidity might play a role, as Toronto has had an exceptionally wet spring and summer, but it would be hard to explain the differential effect on pitchers vs. hitters. I suppose it is possible that extremely humid conditions particularly affect knuckleballers and then the rest is pretty much a small general effect combined with fluke.

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#277377) #

While Bill was at it, he seems to have thought "Hey, I've identified Tough Games - how did individual pitchers do?" And it turns out that the best pitcher in Tough Games was... Whitey Ford. By a country mile. In 149 Tough Starts, Ford went 72-36, 2.66 which is pretty awesome. Juan Marichal and Sandy Koufax also distinguished themselves, but only Ford has an ERA below 3.00 in those games. (Not so impressive in those games - Nolan Ryan, Bert Blyleven, Don Sutton among the really good pitchers along with a whole bunch of people like Rick Honeycutt and Pete Broberg.)

Most pitchers (73% to be exact) have a losing record in these games: Greg Maddux (108-80) has the most wins, followed closely by Tom Glavine (107-70) and Gaylord Perry (107-99). Just having a winning record is very impressive. What Whitey Ford did was simply off the charts sensational. Just amazing.

The best pitcher in Super Tough Games (on the road, against a .570 plus opponent?) That would be Juan Marichal, also by a mile (29-9, 2.24 in 46 starts.) Others who did especially well were Gaylord Perry, Mario Soto, Dave Stieb, Pedro Martinez, and Phil Niekro. Guys who did not pitch well in the Super Tough games: Blyleven in particular, along with folks like Al Downing, Joe Niekro, and Jim Colborn.

Among active pitchers, Clayton Kershaw (especially) and Jon Lester have been outstanding in Tough Games.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#277379) #

Whitey Ford's record was very, very good, but you have to remember two things. The American League was way behind the National League at the time (due to its slowness to integrate), and the Yankees were far and away the best team in the league over more than a decade. Whitey Ford's tough games were not, in fact, as tough as Juan Marichal's or Sandy Koufax's or Bob Gibson's, by virtue of the lesser overall quality of the league and the Yankees' dominance of it. I am pretty sure that if you put Juan Marichal in front of the 1950s Yankees, he would have put up a record in tough games as good or better than Ford's.

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#277381) #

Whitey Ford's tough games were not, in fact, as tough as Juan Marichal's or Sandy Koufax's or Bob Gibson's

I'll bet he would have enjoyed that 60s strike zone, though. Not to mention working in Dodger Stadium.

I was curious as to how Ford did in the Super Tough Games - Bill didn't provide it, so I had to do the heavy lifting myself. There were entire seasons in Ford's prime (1958 and 1962) when he didn't have the opportunity to make such a start, there being no .570 team in the AL except the one Ford was working for. He made 50 such starts, most of them against Cleveland and Chicago (by coincidence - or not - the two AL teams that were quickest to integrate.) In those starts, he was 19-13, 3.22, which is not as good as Marichal, but still not too shabby.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#277383) #

I'll bet he would have enjoyed that 60s strike zone, though. Not to mention working in Dodger Stadium.

No question. Put him in Dodger Stadium in 1967 or 1968 and he would have done pretty well. Hell, he made 7 starts in 1967 for the Yankees and had an ERA of 1.64 in his last year at age 38; the Yankees weren't any good then and he went 2-4.

To me, the most persuasive "clutch pitching" statistic for a starting pitcher is the comparison over a career between how he pitched in high leverage vs. low leverage situations. As you'd expect, Ford pitched noticeably better in high leverage situations, as did Koufax. Marichal pitched about the same. Blyleven did pitch better in low leverage situations; although he pitched well enough in high leverage situations.

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#277384) #

the Yankees' dominance of it.

Indeed. Even when facing a really good opponent, in their ball park, the Yankees were usually the better team. Two-thirds (33 of 50) of Ford's Super Tough Starts came in seasons when the Yankees finished first.

The Yankees fell off the face of the earth in 1965, and Ford himself was breaking down. Even so, in his final seasons (1965-67) Ford made 7 such starts, going 2-3, 3.04 for a terrible team. Ford's best performances in those games came at the beginning of his career (1953 and 1954) and at the end (from 1961 onward) - he struggled a bit in the middle of his career. His best single season in those games is either 1961 (4-1, 1.86) or 1953 (5-1, 2.37); his worst were 1955 (1-2, 6.58) and 1959 (0-2, 6.75).

Mike Green - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#277385) #

This throw from Michael Saunders last night is one of my favourite plays of the season. It's not for the degree of difficulty, but rather the artistic impression. Throwing a strike from medium depth centerfield on the fly while looking utterly relaxed impresses the hell out of me.

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#277388) #

How about a little respect for the unassisted double play by a left fielder. And if you'd told me that it would be Jonny Gomes who would make such a play... I'd have to believe if you said Elvis was living in your basement.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#277389) #

While I was in the kitchen yesterday, I did hear an annoying version of (The Angels Wanna Wear My) Red Shoes sung by a superannuated new waver. Over and over again. I aimlessly commented that we obviously needed to fix the pipes...

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#277390) #

Great quote from Pirates GM Neal Huntington on the trade deadline (the Pirates did not get the RF they were looking for, either Giancarlo Stanton or Alex Rios):

"We were willing to do something stupid. We just didn't want to do something insane."

Wildrose - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#277393) #

Mike raises a good point about the humidity. Contrary to common belief, hot humid air is not heavy, but rather lighter, causing the ball to carry better.

Also I wonder about the effects of pitch location. Lott had a good story on Dickey yesterday discussing his home run woes.

“Last year or the year before, when I would elevate a knuckleball, especially about chest high, and it did get hit, it wasn’t a home run,” Dickey said. “It was a fly-out to right or a fly-out to centre or a foul ball. Here [at the Rogers Centre], there has been at least a handful of times that I can remember without thinking hard where balls that I elevated that have gotten hit were homers.”

Perhaps he can adapt? I must admit I have my concerns though, a flat knuckle ball is bound to happen once in a while, even when pitching well and can be eminently hittable. I suppose there is a precedent with Buerhle though, he certainly learned to pitch in a strenuous home run environment so perhaps there is some hope.

Magpie - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#277394) #

I suppose there is a precedent with Buerhle though, he certainly learned to pitch in a strenuous home run environment

Maybe, maybe - but Buehrle was a 21 year old learning how to pitch in the majors when he came to US Cellular. Dickey's a 38 year old, who's been pitching a certain way in the majors for years. Old dogs, new tricks and all of that.

uglyone - Thursday, August 01 2013 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#277395) #

Great read, Magpie.

I dug through some of the splits myself after reading this, and I'm not sure if anyone mentioned it but these numbers seem to be as much due to HR luck on the road as to HR bad luck at home.

Home: 4.53era (14th), 4.72fip (14th)
Road: 4.06era (8th), 4.02fip (6th)

So it seems like the stats say we've been an average pitchig team on the road, and a horrific pitching team at home.

Except when we adjust HR rate to league average with xFIP:

Home: 3.88xfip (8th)
Away: 4.39xfip (14th)

xFIP tells us that the Jays have actually been an average pitching team at home aside from anomalous HR rates.....but also tells us that the jays have actually been an awful pitching team on the road, but have just got lucky with HR rates.

Sadly I can't find home-road splits for a more nuanced batted ball stat like SIERA, but I guess I could look at the batter ball numbers individually:

HOME: 20.8ld% (6th lowest), 43.8gb% (T-7th highest), 9.5iffb% (8th), 35.4fb% (9th lowest), 16.8hr/fb% (15th lowest)
ROAD: 19.3ld% (3rd lowest), 44.8gb% (6th highest), 12.1iffb% (3rd highest), 35.9fb% (9th lowest), 8.1hr/fb% (1st lowest)

so it does seem the Jays have pitched a bit better on the road - slightly higher GB%, slightly lower LD%, and more pop ups - but the difference isn't huge.

The difference is actually pretty much entirely HR rate.....the weird thing is that the HR rate on the road is just as luckily low as the HR rate at home is unluckily high.

The 16.8hr/fb% at home is fully 2.7% higher than the 2nd place Astros at 14.1%, and only three teams are higher than 11.8%.

But the 8.1hr/fb% on the road is fully 1.5% lower than the 2nd place A's at 9.6%, and the Jays and As are the only two teams lower than 10.4%.

Now I will point out that the 16.8% at home is significantly more out of whack than the 8.1% on the road - with league average somewhere around 11%, that puts the home HR rate almost 6% higher than avg (or 52% higher than avg depending on the way you think about it), while the road HR rate is about 3% lower than average (or 27% lower). - so if my hackneyed math adds up...while the road HR rate does compensate for the home HR rate somewhat, the home rate is still about twice as out of whack as the road rate.

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