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Six days on the road, beginning tonight.


Dickey (10-12, 4.00)  vs Hellickson (1-2, 2.98)
Stroman (8-5, 3.88)  vs Archer (8-7, 3.40)
Buehrle (11-9, 3.50)  vs Odorizzi (10-11, 4.03)

The Jays have 8  series and 26 games left. They have to win them all, and sweeping one would be helpful. That way they could go 19-7 and finish up 88-74. They'd still need a little help. They need some co-operation from the teams they are chasing, Detroit  in particular. It's not enough for Toronto to win. Detroit  must lose more often than they win. And it would help if none of the other teams in the hunt - Seattle, New York, Cleveland - get hot themselves

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Mike Green - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 07:58 PM EDT (#292899) #
Reyes played that pop-up poorly and turned it into a SF. He's been frustrating to watch all season.
ayjackson - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#292900) #
It suddenly occurs to me that Reyes' range is even worse than Escobar's.
grjas - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#292903) #
Well it will be interesting to see what AA does. I suspect he'll follow a strategy like the one outlined above, and who knows there might be enough pitching and injury improvement to be competitive. Unfortunately I think it is more likely we will have another middling team for a year or two followed by FA departures by the likes of JB and EE with little in the farm system to replace them.

Much as I hate another rebuild, I hope AA at least kicks the tires on trading his big assets for younger position players who will meld with our upcoming pitching staff. Sure it's a risk, but so is banking on this middling team with ageing stars to accomplish much in the next two years.
grjas - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#292904) #
Sorry posted to the wrong conversation but you get the idea.
PeteMoss - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#292906) #
Gose, Pompey on the bench. But Tolleson is the PR.
Mike D - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#292907) #
Why would a team that just called up Gose and Pompey use Steve Tolleson as a pinch-runner for Lind with a three-run lead? Sure, he scored, but did nobody update the lineup card?
PeteMoss - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#292908) #
Well a triple for Goins makes it irrelevant.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#292909) #
Sanchez up. Sanchez down. Sanchez up. Sanchez down.

greenfrog - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#292910) #
Navarro has had a pretty respectable offensive season. Would love to see a Martin/Navarro/Thole depth chart at C next year. Someone will likely outspend the Jays for Martin, though (assuming the Jays aim for excellence instead of just-OK -- always a big assumption for the Jays organization).
ayjackson - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#292911) #
I was more confused by the letting Lind hit against a lefty in the 8th, and then pinch running for him after the walk. I thought it was a good situation to give Mayberry a look in his platoon role.

I also thought it was peculiar that Redmond pitched the ninth in an 8-2 game. If you want to use guys like Morrow, Nolin and Graveman at all this month, that would seem to be a good time to get them some work. Especially Morrow.

Admittedly, small stuff in a blow out.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#292912) #
I wonder how much Russell Martin will cost. He'd be a huge upgrade on Navarro. Huge. If you could get him for the same price as Melky Cabrera, I'd rather have Martin, though I doubt that'll be the case. But factor in the draft pick for Cabrera and the return on trading Navarro, and maybe the price becomes comparable.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#292913) #
... Peculiar that Redmond pitched the ninth

I would've brought Redmond into the game in the 8th and let him go two innings (assuming he had time to warm-up after it became 8-2). Redmond's still best-suited as a mop-up guy, in my opinion. Of course, letting one of the new guys pitch the 9th would've been okay too. I thought the wrong move was using Sanchez. He might be our best reliever right now and was essentially wasted tonight.

I also agree re. Lind. A bit strange. Lots of surprises in Gibbons' choices tonight, at least on first glance. Starting Valencia (especially with Goins up now) and Pillar (instead of Gose or Rasmus), for example. But in checking Hellickson's splits, he is much much better against LHBs this year (over his career he's been somewhat more effective vs. RHBs), so I guess Gibbons wanted a right-handed lineup.
hypobole - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#292915) #
Sanchez had already warmed up when it was still 5-2. Might as well use him.

uglyone - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 11:49 PM EDT (#292916) #
RF Bautista 571pa, 154wrc+
1B Encarnacion 438pa, 151wrc+
DH Lind 245pa, 132wrc+
LF Cabrera 610pa, 127wrc+
3B Francisco 315pa, 109wrc+
SS Reyes 549pa, 105wrc+
C Navarro 446pa, 100wrc+
CF Rasmus 362pa, 100wrc+
2B Lawrie 282pa, 100wrc+

UT Valencia 204pa, 106wrc+
OF Mayberry 138pa, 104wrc+
C Thole 130pa, 84wrc+
IF Tolleson 169pa, 80wrc+ / Izturis 38pa, 79wrc+ / Kawasaki 228pa, 78wrc+

The only slots on the healthy "regular" position player roster that are below average hitters this year are our backup C and IF.

Pretty cool.
TangledUpInBlue - Tuesday, September 02 2014 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#292917) #
Yeah, though at that point it's still a matter of using him as little as possible. Not a big deal as a one-off, but it fits a pattern, I think, of Gibbons using his best relievers too heavily.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#292918) #
Russel martin is very good, but signing him at 32 coming off of this career offensive season seems to me to be a really bad idea.

Navarro has been an average catcher offensively, defensively, and overall by both fangraphs and baseball reference, and we have him at borderline starter money. Not really an urgent place to upgrade imo.
hypobole - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 12:28 AM EDT (#292919) #
"Yeah, though at that point it's still a matter of using him as little as possible."

Who should have warmed up, other than Sanchez? Because once a pitcher has warmed up, it's pretty well the same as pitching in the game as far as usage. He only threw 13 more pitches to complete the inning.
dan gordon - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 04:05 AM EDT (#292920) #
For 2013 and 2014 combined, Martin has slashed .253/.364/.391/.756, while Navarro has slashed .286/.335/.430/.764. Pretty much a wash with the wood in their hands. Martin, is, of course, the better defender.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#292921) #
I'm not arguing for Martin instead of Navarro. I'm arguing that the Jays would do well to have both players on the team. More defense, depth and versatility. If we've learned nothing else this year, the Jays need a roster with more of these attributes.

I would rather have Martin on a three-year contract than Melky on a three-year one. Good catchers are a scarce commodity. Corner outfielders are easier to acquire.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#292922) #
Navarro is ranked as barely average defensively (and that's being polite). As such, he's better than the 'other guy' we once had. I can't see carrying three catchers when the money and the roster space are more needed elsewhere.

To get into the postseason is easy, win games. Without being 10 games over .500, it just gets harder. Once there, it gets easier.
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 08:43 AM EDT (#292923) #
I wondered about that, Hypobole, but throwing, say, 15 pitches in a game and throwing 25 is generally considered an important difference so I don't think you can say it doesn't matter what a guy does as long as he's warmed up. And anyway, in Sanchez's case, it wasn't just 13 (which could've been more), it was 13 plus the additional warm-up pitches in the bullpen (after the score became 8-2) and on the diamond. Anyway, not a big deal.

As for the catching situation, it obviously depends on how much Martin would cost. What's good about him, though, is that even if his offense drops off with age, he's still a very good defensive catcher. That shouldn't change and that gives him a limited downside. And when I talk defense, I'm talking pitch-framing — unless I'm mistaken, FanGraphs doesn't include that in their assessment of catcher defense. I don't even know if they keep that statistic because when they mention it, they always link to another site (StatCorner, which I've linked to here before), which shows Russell to be one of the best catchers in MLB and Navarro one of the worst. In fact, there was a good piece at Bluebird Banter a week or two ago arguing that Navarro's defense was so bad he might even be worse (overall) than Arencibia, though a lot depends on how much we should trust the pitch-framing numbers. Whether he's that bad is hard to say but I'm pretty sure he's a lousy catcher and the biggest hole on the team.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#292924) #
Fangraphs has navarro tied in 16th at 1.8war, B/R has him tied in 13th with 2.0war, i.e. Pretty much dead average.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#292925) #
And while there's been a lot of talk about his pitch framing, it sure hasn't seemed to have hurt his starting pitchers much, given that most of them are poating better eras than most expected.
PeterG - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#292926) #
Redmond needs to be tried as a short reliever. Pitchers are needed in that role next year.........plenty of candidates for long relief. Redmond has been our most effective short inning reliever but needs to be put into more high leverage situations, even closing in order to find out if he can handle it.
eudaimon - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#292927) #
I feel like the pitch-framing stuff is partly just the "hot topic" of today. It'll take years to figure out exactly what effect it has and surely there's a lot of luck involved (ie: if you happen to catch with the good umps). While it's definitely a skill I very much doubt Navarro's mediocre pitch framing turns him into JPA. Either way, the pitchers seem to like Navarro and that's the main thing.
PeterG - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#292928) #
I highly doubt Jays will make any catching changes for next season.....certainly not Navarro.....if Dickey is traded which is quite possible, then Thole will be moved along with him.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#292929) #
Six days on the road, beginning tonight

Indeed.

The club's bullpen usage is governed in part by seniority.  Sanchez worked 2 excellent innings on Saturday  and earned his first save.  Janssen apparently complained about not being brought in for the save, and Gibbons said that it was just a one-off and that he would be back in role.  It seems to me that there is a logical September adjustment of roles if you accept the proposition that Janssen is the closer- Sanchez is your Duane Ward, high leverage 7th and 8th innings, Redmond is your medium leverage RH 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th (non-save), and Cecil comes in medium to high situations with lefty predominant opposition and Loup takes others. With the score 5-2, it ought to have been Redmond up first last night. 
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#292930) #
Fangraphs has navarro tied in 16th at 1.8war...

But again, they don't use pitch-framing in that calculation, do they? If they did, he'd give a lot of that back. From StatsCorner, we see that compared to the average catcher, Navarro is -111 on balls and strikes this year (4th worst in MLB), which works out to 14.7 runs below average, or 1.5 wins. (From this article, much recommended for a demonstration on how badly the Blue Jays have been hurt by the umps this year, we get this: "Calculations in the past have put the value of an extra strike somewhere around 0.14 runs." Multiply that by 111 and you get about 15 runs below average.)

So, to the extent we can trust the numbers, if the Jays were to get a defensively average catcher who could contribute 0.3 WAR offensively, he'd be as valuable as Navarro.

TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#292931) #
Redmond has been our most effective short inning reliever...

Good ERA, bad xFIP, so I'm skeptical.
Beyonder - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#292932) #
"I feel like the pitch-framing stuff is partly just the "hot topic" of today. It'll take years to figure out exactly what effect it has and surely there's a lot of luck involved (ie: if you happen to catch with the good umps)."

I wonder about this myself, but I also wonder whether we will ever be in a position to isolate the benefits (if any) of pitch framing. I feel like great deal of weight is placed on the number of balls that are called for strikes. It seems to be an article of faith that the catcher should get credit for this. I can think of a number of alternative plausible hypotheses:

What if certain types of borderline pitches (i.e. curveballs, change ups, vs. fastballs) are more or less difficult to call accurately?

What if the action on certain pitchers' pitches makes their pitches more/less difficult to call?

What if the speed on certain pitches makes them more/less easier to call?

What if the interplay between these three factors makes pitches easier/tougher to call?

One of the things I notice when presented with examples of good framing, is an absence of movement from the catcher. One way to describe this is to say the catcher has excellent anticipation. Another though, is to note that the pitcher is doing an excellent job of hitting his spots. Are catchers being rewarded for excellent framing when what we are really seeing is excellent precision from the pitcher?

Or perhaps some pitchers are better at identifying idiosyncrasies in an umpire's strike zone than others.

Also, if pitch framing is a real thing, you would expect it to be stable from year to year. It certainly isn't always. By way of example, this year's leader in pitch framing in Miguel Montero, who has apparently earned his team 24.1 runs above average. Last year on the season he was among the worst, scoring a -2.1 runs below average. If framing is a skill, it seems unlikely that it should vary to this degree, even for a single player (though I'm sure there are others).

http://statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

In the end, even if you take all the pitching in major league baseball, there is not a large enough sample to be able to control for all of these possibilities. It makes me wonder whether the pitch framing hypothesis isn't unfalsifiable.
PeterG - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#292933) #
Fine to be skeptical. We won' know till he is given more of an opportunity, will we?
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#292934) #
Some pitching-framing ability is easy to see.  You can watch Lucroy or Jose Molina receive and it's pretty obvious that both are good at it.  The numbers bear that out.   Kratz was to my eyes a little better at it than Navarro or Thole and the numbers over a period of years bear that out.

I wouldn't take 1 year pitch-framing statistics as evidence of a numerical ability carrying forward.  Russ Martin (like Lucroy or Molina) has been at 1- 1.5 calls per game for a period of 5 years worth roughly 10-20 runs per season above average.  I'd be inclined to describe that as a real skill.  Navarro has bounced around quite a bit over the 5 years, but over the period has been a little below average. 

uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#292935) #
There's always the possibility that the umps are just screwing us, especially when up against teams with reputations, such as the bulk of our al east competition.

I am annoyed that nobody has done a study yet which attempts to isolate the team factor from pitch framing.

Are navarro/jpa/etc worse framers when they play for the jays?
TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#292936) #
Also, if pitch framing is a real thing, you would expect it to be stable from year to year. It certainly isn't always.

According to Dave Cameron, "framing has been shown to be correlated strongly from year to year — suggesting there is real skill here and not just random noise...." That said, the questions you raise are good ones, Beyonder, and they get at one issue that has seemed problematic to me, which is the small sample size of pitchers a particular catcher has to catch each year. The idiosyncrasies on a particular staff could skew the results. The issue of how to divide credit between pitchers and catchers is also discussed in the Cameron article, and he's not even sure how it should be done.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#292937) #
I also think there's upside in our current unstable bullpen situation - i'm guessing we end up seeing all sorts of guys get their shots at high leverage situations, which we kind of need to do heading into next yesr, because all of janssen/mcgowan/santos should probably not be afforded.

On a related note, i've been looking at Sanchez' numbers as his sample size has gone from infinitesimal to just really tiny (22.2ip), to try and suss out if he's changed anything....and the answer seems obvious - upon moving to the 'pen he's completely ditched the changeup and turned himself into a two pitch pitcher - fastball and curveball. (pitch f/x splits his fastball into a 4seam and 2seam but has them both at the same velocity, which tells me that his great fastball movement is just confuding pitch f/x and that's the same pitch).

There is a chance that most of his control problems were due to trying to learn the changeup. (though we should look close and see whether hitters are bailing him out on the fastball and curve by swinging at balls). Thing is, he needs that third pitch if he wants to be a top level starter, so either way it's still not great news even if the change is his only real problem. I guess at least it looks like dominant reliever migh be his downside.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#292938) #
I guess at least it looks like dominant reliever might be his downside

Not exactly.  There are various possibilities for Sanchez' career- ace starter, dominant reliever and a bunch of less pleasant ones whether due to medical or performance issues or both.

Many people hope that he will be an ace starter, but he hasn't done that in the high minors (or in the low minors for that matter).  It might happen, but it's in the realm of hopes and dreams.  Whereas "dominant reliever" seems like something he can do without developing much at all.  He has walked only 3 batters in 21 innings as a reliever and hasn't ever done anything like that at any level.  It's great to see him succeed, and frankly he is a lot of fun to watch as well.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#292939) #
Yep, true, "downside" should always dome with the caveat that the player could blow up at any minute, though that applies to every player, not just prospects.
Hodgie - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#292940) #
" He has walked only 3 batters in 21 innings as a reliever and hasn't ever done anything like that at any level."

Not exactly Mike. I made note of this earlier after reading an article discussing the delivery changes they Jays were working on with Sanchez in Buffalo. In his last 5 AAA appearances (3 starts, 2 relief) spanning 21 innings he issued 5 walks. It is possible that the delivery changes are starting to bear fruit as a 1.75 BB/9 over his last 42 innings is a monumental step forward based on his career to date.

Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#292942) #
Sanchez had 5 walks in has last 19 innings as a starter in Buffalo, and no walks in 2 innings in relief.  If you tote it up, you've got 3 walks in his last 25 innings of relief. It's common for pitchers to have significantly better control from the pen than out of the rotation.  He also struck out 12 in those last 19 starting innings whereas he's struck out 23 in those last 25 innings of relief.  The difference in W/BB between 5/12 and 3/23 is huge, especially bearing in mind the difference in competition. 
Hodgie - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#292943) #
Considering his minor league numbers, those 5 walks in 19 innings (2.36 BB/9) are a considerable improvement. Whether it was sustainable is another matter and Mike pointed out the pedestrian K numbers in AAA. My only point was that Sanchez was already showing some improvement in his command before his move to the pen which gives me hope that the delivery changes (much like Norris) may be at least somewhat responsible and his improvement sustainable with a move back to the rotation.
MatO - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#292944) #
You never know when guys figure things out. As we've seen with Norris, maybe Sanchez has too. You just have to look at a guy called Halladay to see what's possible. He basically had poor peripherals and performances at the same age as Sanchez both in AAA and the majors but eventually he did figure it out. He's also a guy who only had two pitches until Arnsberg came in and taught him the cutter. He never had a change-up until he learned one with the Phillies. Stieb is another guy who only had two pitches when he came up. You just need to have two really good pitches to be successful..
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#292945) #
At age 19, Halladay walked 46 and struck out 109 in 164 innings in Dunedin.  Sanchez went through Dunedin at age 21 and walked 40 and struck out 75 in 84 innings.  Sanchez has never pitched to anything like a starter's workload with decent control.  He might do it, indeed with only two pitches, but as I said, it's in the realm of hopes and dreams. He might become Sandy Koufax.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#292946) #
Goins and Gose (in CF) in the lineup tonight.
MatO - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#292947) #
That the last year Halladay even remotely approached those control numbers until the age of 24 including 18 relief appearances as a 22 year-old.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#292948) #
Halladay was advanced up through the minor leagues much younger than Sanchez and struggled at each level but keep being promoted.  He, of course, had the psychological assistance that eventually turned things around for him.  What he did at age 19 though, showed that he had the physical ability to take a starter's workload with fine performance at an age-appropriate level (well, actually much better than age-appropriate). 

Most starters who ultimately succeed in the major leagues have thrown 150 modestly successful innings at least in a season somewhere by age 22.   There are some obvious exceptions- at age 22, Randy Johnson was throwing 120 very wild innings in the FSL.  His ability to throw 200 innings with decent control was very much in doubt.  Sanchez is probably better positioned than Randy Johnson was at the same age to become an ace starter, but the number of flame-outs in the rotation of prospects of Sanchez' type far exceeds the number of successes.
Beyonder - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#292949) #
John Lott is reporting Colby Rasmus has been benched.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#292950) #
John Lott tweets that Colby Rasmus has been benched. 
China fan - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#292951) #
So that appears to be the end of Colby Rasmus in a Jays uniform.  He might play a few more games for the Jays this month, but it's difficult to see him returning next season if they won't play him now, at a time when they're still theoretically in contention for a wild-card spot (no matter how unlikely the playoffs might be). I suppose conceivably the Jays could still attempt to keep him for 2015 if they are disappointed by Gose, Pillar and Pompey for the rest of this season, but it's hard to conceive that none of those three prospects will be deemed sufficient to replace Rasmus at a tiny fraction of his salary in 2015.

It marks the end of an experiment with an enigmatic player whose potential always seemed to exceed his performance (except perhaps in 2013).  It's too bad -- most of us liked Colby a lot, even despite the disappointments.   And the trade to acquire him was still a good one.  (Unless perhaps the Jays should have hung on to Edwin Jackson?)

China fan - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#292953) #
John Lott's full report on the benching of Rasmus, just posted, includes this ominous sentence:  "The signs started last week, when he missed a couple of games with an alleged illness."

Alleged illness?  The implication of "alleged" is that either the Jays were lying about an illness, or Rasmus was.   Not sure which version Lott is implying, but either way, the intrigue continues.  There were the earlier hints, after being late for a game, that Rasmus had an attitude problem.  I was skeptical about that accusation -- not least because it would cost Rasmus many millions of dollars in his free agency if he is perceived as a lazy head-case slacker, so I just couldn't imagine him doing so much damage to his own potential income.   But maybe, after all, there was something to it?  Or was it purely a financial decision -- Anthopoulos deciding that he can't afford a multi-year contract to Rasmus, or a qualifying offer, and that his potential replacements are good enough to fill his shoes at a tiny percentage of the cost.
jerjapan - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#292955) #
If the writing was on the wall, why not trade the guy Sunday when he could have yielded some (admittedly small) return?  It could be a straw that broke the camel's back scenario, or a desire not to be perceived as sellers on deadline day. 
ogator - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#292956) #
I think this is a language issue more than anything else. The word, "benched" sounds so loud but I think the Jays are simply playing individuals who are clearly better defensively than Rasmus and may be better offensively and players who will be here next year while Rasmus clearly will not.
Maybe calling these players, "rookies," makes Rasmus think he has some kind of argument but if he used the language, "better players," his argument kind of evaporates.
dan gordon - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#292958) #
On the pitch framing issue, I read an interesting article in early July in the NY Times about pitches outside the strike zone called strikes by the umpire. The author of the study was thinking that much of those calls were due to the "reputation" of the pitcher, specifically how good, and long, a career the pitcher had. The study used the number of all-star game appearances a pitcher has made as a means of evaluating pitchers, and the author found a strong and linear correlation between the number of all-star game appearances and the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone called strikes by the umpire. The more all-star games, the higher the percentage of non-strikes called strikes by the umpire. By the time a pitcher had gotten to 5 all-star games, he was getting a 16.7% increase in the number of pitches outside the zone called strikes than a pitcher who hadn't been to an all-star game. This may explain some of the pitch framing stats, in that a catcher who has more of the highly regarded /respected pitchers on his staff will benefit from this umpire bias.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#292959) #
You'd think that Buehrle and Dickey would get quite a few reputation strikes- can we call them Glavines?- so Jay catchers wouldn't be too disadvantaged from that perspective.
dan gordon - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#292960) #
Well, Dickey has been to only 1 all-star game, but Buehrle has been to 5, so according to the article's research, Buehrle should be getting a lot of benefit from the umps, Dickey just a little. Is there any way to check those stats on Buehrle?
AWeb - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#292961) #
The Jays last fought the Rays to a draw on the season series in 2007, won the season series in 2006. I'm still about 7 more wins in a row from entertaining playoff hopes again, but I am rooting for little moral victories. Beat this team please.
Mike Green - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#292962) #
No Cy Young bonus, dan?  Surely there must be...

It is a particularly auspicious time for the bats to waken from their slumbers. 

hypobole - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#292963) #
Thanks Reyes, you made me remember Juan Rivera.
PeteMoss - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#292964) #
What I find interesting or counter intuitive to the pitch framing argument is when you look at catcher era. Miguel Montero is good framer and his back-up is pretty average (http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php)

When you look at their catcher ERA... the results are much better with Gosewisch than Montero.

The other thing when you look at that is how often teammates are bunched. On a per game basis, the Padres have 3 of the top 4 catchers in the NL at getting calls. The Brewers have 2 of 5. Makes you wonder if the pitchers have more of an impact that considered.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#292965) #
Hear hear, AWeb, hear hear.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#292966) #
Sanchez up. Shoot me.
greenfrog - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#292967) #
Lind's very fine (albeit injury-shortened) season continues. He's now hitting .319 with a strong OBP and decent power.
PeteMoss - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#292968) #
They seem to be very adamant to getting him into this game since he appears to be coming out for the save in the 9th.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 10:53 PM EDT (#292969) #
Holy crap we did it. We beat them in their house.
Alex Obal - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#292970) #
So we only trust one of our relievers? The late-innings strategy with a lead, apparently, is to wait for a runner to get on, then immediately get Sanchez up, and if the leverage gets high enough, bring Sanchez in. They can't go on like this. It will inevitably lead to Sanchez warming up twice a game and appearing in 60% of the games. To put it charitably, Gibbons' incentives in handling Sanchez (win. now. at all costs.) are not aligned with the team's. I'm scheduling an intervention.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:16 PM EDT (#292972) #
Divide the last 35 games into two groups. The first 21 where they must play well to make the last two weeks, the last 14 games meaningful. I believe they need a minimum of 13-8 in the first 21. Of course more, is always better.
uglyone - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:23 PM EDT (#292973) #
Sanchez gamelog:

Sep 03: 1.0ip, 13pc
Sep 02: 1.0ip, 12pc
Sep 01: ---
Aug 31: ---
Aug 30: 2.0ip, 28pc
Aug 29: ---
Aug 28: ---
Aug 27: ---
Aug 26: 0.2ip, 13pc
Aug 25: 1.0ip, 19pc
Aug 24: ---
Aug 23: 1.2ip, 18pc
Aug 22: ---
Aug 21: ---
Aug 20: 1.1ip, 22pc
Aug 19: ---
Aug 18: ---
Aug 17: ---
Aug 16: 1.2ip, 21pc
Aug 15: 1.0ip, 9pc
Aug 14: ---
Aug 13: ---
Aug 12: ---
Aug 11: ---
Aug 10: 3.0ip, 37pc
Aug 09: ---
Aug 08: ---
Aug 07: ---
Aug 06: ---
Aug 05: 2.0ip, 47pc
Aug 04: ---
Aug 03: 1.0ip, 12pc
Aug 02: ---
Aug 01: ---
Jul 31: 2.0ip, 20pc
Jul 30: ---
Jul 29: 0.1ip, 2pc
Jul 28: ---
Jul 27: 2.0ip, 27pc
Jul 26: ---
Jul 25: ---
Jul 24: ---
Jul 23: 2.0ip, 25pc


Not sure i see a big issue here. Doesn't seem to be overused.

Sanchez has been their best rh rp, the jays are 4.5gms out of a playoff spot....usage makes sense to me.
scottt - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:36 PM EDT (#292974) #
The study used the number of all-star game appearances a pitcher has made as a means of evaluating pitchers.

I think it's just that teams that tend to get the umpire on their side tend to be big market teams who have more--often washed up--expensive free agents.

A better study would look at the missed strikes that are called balls, because you shouldn't have to be a 5 time all-star to have a pitch over the plate called a strike. Also, I take offense to the strike zone changing from game to game because, depending on the pitcher match up, a team can be advantaged over an other by the strike zone being larger or smaller.

Hopefully, I live long enough to see the umpires being taken out of this equation.
scottt - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#292975) #
Lind should have been platooned years ago. Will they ever give him a matching platoon partner?

Gibby said that he's going with the regulars but that the extra pitchers will come in handy in blowouts. And by that he meant when the Jays are losing by 8 runs or more.

Playoff odds are approaching 3% now.

TangledUpInBlue - Wednesday, September 03 2014 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#292976) #
the author found a strong and linear correlation between the number of all-star game appearances and the percentage of pitches outside the strike zone called strikes by the umpire.

I haven't read the piece, Dan, but I wonder about the causality here. Pitchers who can hit their spot, and do it slightly outside the zone if the umpire's going to call it a strike on a given day, are good pitchers. And good pitchers make the all-star game.
dan gordon - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#292977) #
Yes, the article covers this:

"The error is not just the result of All-Stars being around the plate more than other pitchers. Even on the identical pitch just outside the zone, All-Stars got the call when journeymen did not"

It also pointed out that all-stars get fewer pitches in the strike zone called balls than other pitchers.
Alex Obal - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#292978) #
Well, it's a lot easier to hold Sanchez back when you're losing all the time. The past two days they've had Sanchez, who they intend to use as their highest-leverage reliever and sometimes closer, warm up with a lead of three or more runs six different times. They can't keep doing that. The circle of trust needs to expand in a hurry.
PeteMoss - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#292979) #
Overreaction. Gibbons said post game that he's out for the next two games (and he was regardless if he pitched tonight or not after warming up).

First time all year they've used him back to back.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#292980) #
OK, thanks, Dan. It sounds like there might be something to it, but this...

Even on the identical pitch just outside the zone, All-Stars got the call when journeymen did not.

... still leaves me wondering. Because I think the consistency of being able to hit that spot is what's important, rather than looking at identical pitches in isolation. A good pitcher can start on the outside edge of the strike zone and slowly work his way out until the umpire stops calling it a strike. Greg Maddux was great at this. So in that sense a good pitcher is able to lead the umpire a bit. The journeyman, who just happens to hit a spot outside the zone once in a while, isn't doing that.

Also, even if the pitcher doesn't/can't lead the umpire along, there's the fact that if a good pitcher knows that a ball slightly off the plate is going to be called a strike, he'll try to hit that spot consistently. If the umpire isn't calling it a strike, he won't. Therefore, his strike-call percentage in that location is going to be relatively high. Contrast that with a journeyman who hits the same spot randomly, including days when it's not being called a strike. His percentage of strike calls in that location is going to look lower than the good pitcher's.
Alex Obal - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#292981) #
Okay, good, I'll shut up now and color me pleasantly surprised. (So pleasantly I won't even wonder aloud why they used him in that spot if it was going to make him unavailable for the next two days.)
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#292982) #
Overreaction. Gibbons said post game that he's out for the next two games...

Well, not an overreaction on the related issue that by using him back-to-back in low-leverage situations, he's out for two games when he might be needed.
92-93 - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#292983) #
"Lind should have been platooned years ago. Will they ever give him a matching platoon partner?"

In 147 PA vs. LHP this year Rajai Davis is hitting .345/.374/.540.

Four games back in the loss column, with the underbelly of the September schedule coming up; 3 vs. the reeling Red Sox, and 3 vs. the youthful Cubs who are over .500 since the break. Hard to blame management for putting their best foot forward right now.
hypobole - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#292984) #
Pitchers that have plus command also give their catchers lots of opportunities to frame pitches. Pitchers that miss their location often make their catchers stab at pitches, not only preventing the pitch from being framed, but sometimes even making strikes look like balls.
China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:34 AM EDT (#292985) #
".....by using him back-to-back in low-leverage situations, he's out for two games when he might be needed...."

That's a fair point.  But two possible objections:

1) there are no low-leverage situations when the Jays are playing at the House of Horrors.  Nothing is safe.  Nothing can be taken for granted.

2) the Jays now have a pretty deep bullpen.  Over the next two games, there's a good chance they won't need Sanchez.  Key relievers such as Cecil and Janssen are well-rested and available.  Loup has pitched only 1 inning in the past 5 days.  Redmond has pitched only 1 inning in the past 9 days. And they've got reinforcements such as Morrow (who should be excellent in a bullpen role).  And for lower-leverage situations, they have Jenkins, Norris, Graveman, Nolin etc.
AWeb - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 06:37 AM EDT (#292986) #

So glad the Jays have won a series in TB.

Agree that Sanchez shouldn't be warming up so much, especially as a new reliever. But holding him out of last night in case a higher leverage spot comes up tomorrow seems like folly to me, pretty much the same folly that teams fall into with their closer use. Make no mistake, one of the biggest reasons that managers don't use closers in close non-save situations is that there might be a save situation the next day they won't be available for (and then the closer complains, see Janssen). They had two leads, Sanchez pitched and the Jays won each game. This is a good outcome, the next two games could unfold almost any way. They have plenty of relievers for the next two days, including all the best ones from this year (granted, that is a shorter list than last year).

 

Mike Green - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#292987) #
I wasn't watching at the end of last night's game.  Can somebody fill me in?  Was Janssen hurt or sick or something?  Three run lead, ninth inning, Sanchez having pitched on Tuesday, Janssen last having pitched on Sunday, seems like a tailor-made Janssen call.  Gibbons evidently had enough confidence to bring in Janssen with a 1 run lead on Sunday; surely there must have been some reason why he was not given the call yesterday. 

Personally, even if Janssen was unavailable, I would have sent Cecil out there instead of Sanchez.  Spread out the work and save one's best reliever for the highest leverage situations.  That's not the way Gibbons rolls though.

John Northey - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#292988) #
I'm thinking Gibbons is auditioning Sanchez for the closer role for 2015.  Right now there isn't an open rotation slot and if Norris is impressive then even if someone is traded there still wouldn't be.  It isn't hard to imagine that Gibbons hopes to convince AA to let Sanchez be the closer in 2015 and beyond.  I just hope we don't get another Kelvim Escobar situation where the kid never gets settled into a role while here.

McNulty - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#292989) #
Scouts projected Stroman's career as an ace reliever and Sanchez as a potential front of the rotation horse. Funny how it might work out to be the opposite.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 08:56 AM EDT (#292990) #
It sure is tempting but I don't think there's any way Sanchez is a reliever next year, at least to begin with. If there's no open spot in the rotation, they'll create one. Norris too. I'm sure Anthopoulos is well aware, for instance, that the $20M going to Buehrle could be better spent elsewhere.
christaylor - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#292991) #
Would Buehrle moving even free up $20M? Rogers might just pocket the savings and/or money might need to be sent to whatever team he is traded too.

If the Jays don't pick up Rasmus' option -- will that be available to spend? Ditto for Melky...

We can hope, but I don't think there's a great reason to believe that Rogers will allow 2015 savings to be carried forward into the 3+ year contracts that FA seem to need.

Gerry - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#292992) #
Mike:

Sanchez warmed up earlier in the game but didn't come in. Then he warmed up in the eighth when the score was 7-2. When Tampa made it 7-4 it became a save situation. Gibby said he brought Sanchez in there because he was already warm.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#292993) #
China fan is bang on when he says there are no low leverage eituations at the trop. Gibber did NOT want to squander this chance to finally win a series there and break the streak.

The funny thing is i'm pretty sure the first time sanchez warmed up it was specifically in case longoria came up, but loup got out of it before that happened. And then when the jays added an insurance run he put mcgowan instead.....who promptly gave up a two run shot to longoria. Annoyed with himself, gibby stopped messing around and put sanchez in to close it out.

Janssen and mcgowan really can't be trusted much right now, unfortunately.

I'm more annoyed that Valencia was given the green light with a 3-0 count and the bases loaded vs a rhp....and promptly swung at 3 balls. He did manage to knock one run in but killed the possibility of a really big game sealing inning. Even more annoying that buck and pat were begging for that green light before it happened, meaning the gibber agreed with the chuckleheads.
PeterG - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#292994) #

I'm thinking Gibbons is auditioning Sanchez for the closer role for 2015.  Right now there isn't an open rotation slot and if Norris is impressive then even if someone is traded there still wouldn't be.  It isn't hard to imagine that Gibbons hopes to convince AA to let Sanchez be the closer in 2015 and beyond.  I just hope we don't get another Kelvim Escobar situation where the kid never gets settled into a role while here.


AA was on radio Tuesday and said it was 100% he is a starter next year....no way he will be closing.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:15 AM EDT (#292995) #
Chris, you're right. I was assuming a rational world, which maybe I shouldn't when it comes to Rogers (or any organization, for that matter). That could even be the explanation for why Buehrle didn't get traded last week -- i.e., Anthopoulos may have figured he wasn't going to get the $20M back in the off-season, so why bother. At least in the off-season, though, he could try to off-set the move at roughly the same time by spending the same $20M, and Rogers probably wouldn't object.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#292996) #
Thanks, Gerry. 

It sounds like Gibbons is managing scared (Sanchez warming with large leads having pitched the day before? really?).  You don't go on long winning streaks that way.  If the club was in the playoffs or the last week of the season, I can see it.  Maybe.  But this club needs to go 18-7 or 19-6 in the remaining games to win and it won't happen if Gibbons manages each game as if it was his last. 

uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#292997) #
You open up a spot in the rotation by letting happ go.

Happ is on his typical pace of giving us 150ip of 90era+. Though even hitting 150ip is a rarity for him. There's no need to spend $7m on that kind of #5sp fodder when you have sanchez/norris/nolin banging on the door.

Buehrle is on his typical and extremely reliable pace of giving us 200ip of 113era+. That is very good production, and $19m for one year is not an extravagant price for it.
Gerry - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#292999) #
While I think AA is safe, I think Gibbons could be sacrificed if the Jays collapse down the stretch and finish 76-86. So I agree Mike, I think Gibbons is managing to make sure his job is safe. That is why you won't see the kids playing much for a while yet.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#293000) #
At the beginning of the year, I said that I thought that the Jays would finish 84-78 and narrowly out of the playoffs, and that would be enough to preserve Gibbons' job.  I hope that prediction was wrong. It's not that Rogers is a bad owner, or that Gibbons is a bad manager, but "not bad" isn't enough.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#293002) #
To be fair, gibbons played all of stroman, sanchez, gose, goins, and pillar last night, and pillar, sanchez, gose, goins, and pompey the night before. That's a lot of kids.

And while the jays are on pace for about 84 wins now, that comes after an ice cold month offensively....and i wouldn't be surprised to see the bats come alive again this final month (now that the lineup is relatively healthy and guys like eand lind have had a chance to get in a healthy groove again) and give us a better record than that at the end. The fact that stroman, buehrle, and hutch seem to be past the yips they had for a couple of weeks there might help as well.

Probably not good enough for the playoffs though.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#293005) #
Gibbon's use of Sanchez necessitated his being in the game. You warm up twice, you are basically useless the next day, so use him and give him two games off, perfectly sensible.

Reyes, Cabrera, Bautista and Encarnacion drive the Bus (offense), everyone else is an added 'bonus'. If those four are hot, they will win games on their own. If those four are playing well, a minor assist (1-2 Runs) from the others helps. If the four are just average, a little more from the others (2-3 Runs) is needed. If those from are cold, the others must drive the Bus.

I think if you could check the numbers, you will find Offense costing the Jays more games than Starters, Bullpen and Defense did together.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#293007) #
Doubtful. Jays have one of the best offenses in baseball this year. Mediocre starting pitching. Below average defense. And an awful bullpen.

And the "weak" part of the jays' lineup is better than most any other team's weak part....in fact, its as good as some teams strong part of the order.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#293009) #
Fun exercise - remove reyes/melky/bautista/ee and compare the remaining jays' lineup to the yanks or sox full lineup, using wrc+:

2B Lawrie 100 ------ RF Prado 98 ------ 3B Holt 98
C Navarro 104 ------ LF Gardner 119 --- 2B Pedroia 100
DH Lind 137 -------- CF Ellsbury 115 -- DH Ortiz 131
1B Francisco 109 --- 1B Teixeira 106 -- 1B Napoli 126
LF Mayberry 104 ---- DH Beltran 98 ---- LF Cespedes 114
3B Valencia 101 ---- 3B Headley 95 ---- RF Victorino 87
CF Rasmus 99 ------- C McCann 93 ------ SS Bogaerts 78
2B Tolleson 80 ----- SS Jeter 74 ------ C Vazquez 52
RF Gose 80 --------- 2B Drew 49 ------- CF Bradley 60

UT Johnson 104 ----- UT Young 79 ------ UT Craig 76
OF Pillar 55 ------- OF Suzuki 82 ----- OF Betts 124
IF Kawasaki 78 ----- IF Ryan 41 ------- IF Weeks 124
C Thole 84 --------- C Cervelli 119 --- C Ross 67
Chuck - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#293010) #
Sanchez may well be in the team's short term plans to be tried as a starter. But just observing, from the outside, Gibbons' (and perhaps the organization's) decisions as of late, it sure seems as if Rasmus and Janssen are being marginalized. Both have been struggling and neither appear likely to return in 2015, so September seems to be an opportunity for their replacements to be given a try-out.

Rasmus and Janssen figure to be managed quite differently this month. Rasmus will ride the pines. Janssen won't (at least not to the same extent), since he clearly deserves to pitch. And because the oranization doesn't want to overtly disrespect him, Janssen likely won't be pitching set-up innings. Rather, I am guessing that he and Sanchez will share closing duties this month, with Janssen stepping in when Sanchez is resting.

China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#293013) #
"....But just observing, from the outside, Gibbons' (and perhaps the organization's) decisions as of late, it sure seems as if Rasmus and Janssen are being marginalized..."

You don't need to guess about this from outside. Rasmus himself has confirmed, to the media yesterday, that the Jays have explicitly informed him that he has been benched in favor of the kids.  As for Janssen, he and the Jays haven't stated anything, but there's no doubt that many "save" opportunities are now going to Sanchez and others.  It can't be a coincidence that both are impending free agents and the Jays are unlikely to bring them back.  Logically enough, the Jays want to begin giving some of their playing time to others -- especially since neither has been particularly impressive this year (except for Janssen in the early months of the year). 

But, as others have noted in this thread, I don't think Sanchez is being auditioned for the closer role.  He is far more valuable as a starter, and he seems perfectly capable of performing well as a starter.  Anthopoulos has confirmed this.

So the 2015 rotation is likely to be something like this:  Stroman, Sanchez, Hutchison, and then a couple of veterans -- whichever ones don't get traded -- with Norris as the 6th starter or potentially even breaking into the rotation in April if he has a strong training camp.
China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#293015) #
"....It sounds like Gibbons is managing scared (Sanchez warming with large leads having pitched the day before? really?).  You don't go on long winning streaks that way...."

I think this is an extremely unfair criticism, for reasons that have already been abundantly explained in this thread.  Gibbons was not managing scared -- he was nailing down a couple of crucial wins in September.  As the analysis by uglyone has shown, Sanchez has not been over-used.  He has been used judiciously, and now will be rested for a couple of days.  The rest of the bullpen is well-rested and well-stocked, and Sanchez won't be needed for a couple of days.  (Unless you are arguing that Sanchez is the only capable pitcher in the bullpen -- which would also be unfair and inaccurate.)  If the Jays can't win any games without Sanchez pitching, they don't deserve to be contenders.  They have a lot of decent arms in the bullpen -- they should be able to hold the fort for a couple of days.  Why are some fans now suddenly perceiving Sanchez as the indispensable weapon who must be carefully preserved for exactly the right moment?  Managers can't afford to put any pitcher on such a pedestal.  The Jays don't have a one-man bullpen.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#293016) #
I think fans overthink it when it comes to lockeroom politics and the like.

Gibbons is using janssen less because janssen has been crappy, and using sanchez because he's been good.

Likewise, he thinks that gose/pillar give him a better chance to win than colby.

Doesn't have anything to do with treating free agents differently than kids, imo. Gibbons is just trying to win.
Chuck - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#293017) #
You don't need to guess about this from outside. Rasmus himself has confirmed, to the media yesterday, that the Jays have explicitly informed him that he has been benched in favor of the kids.

I should have used past tense in my observation. From the moment Rasmus started sitting against RHP, it became clear he was being marginalized. Rasmus's confirmation yesterday just seemed to be a statement of the obvious.

AWeb - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#293018) #
Noticed in another article that Norris was born in April 1993, meaning that the Jays are rapidly approaching having active players who weren't alive last time they went to the playoffs. Who's the first likely candidate, Osuna? Mitch Nay?
Sano - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#293019) #

I do think that there's a large degree of locker-room politics going on here. Janssen, in particular, because of his comments regarding the lack of moves made at the deadline and his pending free agency, has been marginalized I think. I don't particularly think that it's unwarranted however, given his recent performances. The way that Janssen has complained publicly about not being used in closing situations has been very surprising to me as I always thought that he was more of a stand-up/team-first guy.

Chuck - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#293020) #
Rasmus himself has confirmed, to the media yesterday, that the Jays have explicitly informed him that he has been benched in favor of the kids.

It was interesting, and appropriate, that Rasmus used the term rookies for Pillar and Gose. I'm not sure how a propos kids would have been. Pillar is just 2.5 years younger than Rasmus.

Chuck - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#293021) #
Yes, I know that Gose is no longer technically a rookie. But rookies, plural, works if you consider Pillar and Pompey. Can someone find me a lawyer?
China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#293024) #
The way that Rasmus handled his benching was incredibly impressive, and it adds to his legend.  It's probably going to cost him millions of dollars in lost income on the free-agent market, since any prospective buyer is going to wonder why he couldn't crack the Jays lineup against the likes of Pillar and Gose.  Yet he didn't utter a word of complaint, and he appears to have given generous interviews to every Jays beat reporter, answering questions about his benching in a very relaxed and calm way, and even expressing sympathy and understanding about the decision.  (Contrast this to his awkward and surly demeanor towards the media when he first arrived in the Jays clubhouse after he was acquired in the trade.)  We will always speculate about his personality traits -- was he too easy-going to reach his vast potential?  Was he just not into baseball as much as the "gritty" and less talented players?  Or is this a completely false stereotype, fueled by his southern accent? 

In any event, I will miss him.  As someone tweeted yesterday:  I hope he continues to record every out with his patented hand gestures from the Jays bench for the rest of this month.

ayjackson - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#293025) #
As an aside, I thought Rasmus handled the interview very well and said all the right things. I don't think he likes it, but he seems to understand it. I wasn't really expecting him to show such maturity.
ayjackson - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#293026) #
well i guess it wasn't an aside. should have refreshed.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#293028) #
Elite offense is nonsense. just look at the three bad stretches in the Season.

March 31st - April 30th, 27 games, an entire month: Shutout - once (0-1); 1 Run - twice (0-2, one was a winnable game); 2 Runs - 4 (1-3); 3 Runs - 3 (2-1); 4 Runs - 6 (2-4).

In 16 games, scoring under 5 Runs, record is 5-11. Bad Starts also occurred in 7 of those games, with bad Relief in 6 of the 7.

June 7th - July 13th, 34 games, more than a month: Shutout - 6 (0-6); 1 Run - 4 (0-4); 2 Runs - 5 (0-5, one was winnable); 3 Runs - 5 (0-5, two were winnable); 4 Runs - 5 (3-2).

In 25 games, scoring under 5 Runs, record is 3-22. Bad Starts occurred in 6 of those games, with bad Relief in 4 of the 6.

August 1st - August 26th, 23 games, almost a month: Shutout - twice (0-2); 1 Run - 6 (0-6, two games were winnable); 2 Runs - once (0-1); 3 Runs - 4 (1-3); 4 Runs - once (0-1, it was winnable).

In 14 games, scoring under 5 runs, record is 1-13. Bad Starts occurred in 9 of those games, with bad Relief occurring in 4 of the 9.

The offense should score an average of 4 runs. Scoring 4 or fewer runs, the Jays record is 22-56, a very miserable record. Scoring 5 or more runs, the record is 49-11, exactly where it should be. Elite Offense in comparison to other teams, maybe. Elite offense according to their actual record, not a chance.
Paul D - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#293029) #
Depending on the measure you want to use, the Jays have between the 3rd and 5th best offence in all of baseball, and aren't far from 1 and 2.  That's elite.  Every single team ever looks bad if you only looks at games/streches were they played poorly.  It's a truism.  

The other thing to remember is that offence is down all over baseball.

uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#293030) #
For everyone worried about where we're going to get the money to improve next year, here's a list of easy savings:

Rasmus $7.0m, 0.4fwar, 0.7bwar
Morrow $8.0m, 0.3fwar, -0.2bwar
Janssen $4.0m, 0.1fwar, 0.2bwar
McGowan $1.5m, -0.1fwar, 0.4bwar
Santos $3.8m, -0.5fwar, -1.3bwar

Total: $24.3m, 0.2fwar, -0.2bwar, 0.0avgwar

That's $24.3m we can free up without worsening our team relative to this year even one little bit.

And since sanchez/norris/nolin/graveman are coming on strong, i'd add Happ to that list as well:

Happ $5.2m, 1.1fwar, 1.0bwar

Making it $29.5m total freed up without downgrading the team relative to this year.

Then we add melky's $8m to bring that up to $37.5m.

About $10.5m of that is eaten up by guaranteed player raises, bringing it down to $27m.

And then an undetermined amount by arby raises. Don't think anyone is due any huge raise in arby. Maybe what? $5m or so total?

So even if we don't raise payroll we could have $20-25m available to upgrade the roster, with Melky being the only actual valuable asset from this year that hurts us if we don't re-sign or replace.
PeteMoss - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#293031) #
Exactly this. Cabrera is a free agent. He's not sitting out. They are trying to win games and feel Pillar/Gose and spotting Janssen gives them the best chance.

If Janssen was putting up 0's like he did at the start of the year, he wouldn't be getting skipped right now. If Rasmus wasn't striking out every 2nd AB, he wouldn't be sitting either.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#293032) #
"Elite offense is nonsense. just look at the three bad stretches in the Season."

Sorry ricky, but the only "nonsense" there is looking at "three bad stretches" to analyze anything.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#293033) #
"The offense should score an average of 4 runs. Scoring 4 or fewer runs, the Jays record is 22-56, a very miserable record. Scoring 5 or more runs, the record is 49-11, exactly where it should be. Elite Offense in comparison to other teams, maybe. Elite offense according to their actual record, not a chance"

Actually, going 49-11 with 5+ runs isn't as it should be - that's way better than you'd expect. Just like going 22-56 when scoring fewer is way worse than you'd expect.

What that number probably tells us is that the hitting and pitching have for the most part been hot or cold at the same time.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#293034) #
My point, CF, was that there are 25 games to play and if you have your best reliever warming when the score is 7-2 (and incidentally you are not playing one of the teams you have to catch), you are not leveraging talent appropriately.  It's a failing strategy, much like sending Lind to face LHPs persistently (for what it's worth, I understand why Gibbons didn't pinch-hit Mayberry for Lind...Mayberry hasn't had a major league at-bat since July 20 and it is probably best if he doesn't get back at it in the harder pinch-hitting role). 

"Locking down" a win is a silly concept.  So you're going to bring your best reliever no matter what the score is?  Really? 

Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#293035) #
So let's see, the last paragraph encompasses the entire season to date, but that's not significant? The bad stretches consist of 84 games, perhaps too small a sample? Surely this isn't an elite offense when they can't score?
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#293036) #
Record when scoring:

8+: 18gms, 17-1, .945
7: 16gms, 13-3, .813
6: 11gms, 8-3, .727
5: 15gms, 11-4, .733
4: 20gms, 11-9, .550
3: 21gms, 8-13, .381
2: 13gms, 3-10, .231
1: 15gms, 0-15, .000
0: 9gms, 0-9, .000

Seems a pretty normal distribution for a good offensive team. 45gms of 6+ runs (.844), 56gms of 3-5 runs (.536), 37gms of 0-2 runs (.081).

The abysmal record in games we score 2 or fewer runs in is probably one of the worst in baseball, which can probably be blamed on the pitching and defense. You expect a losing record when you score that few, but probably not that bad a record.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#293037) #
"My point, CF, was that there are 25 games to play and if you have your best reliever warming when the score is 7-2..."

Finishing that sentence up with this seems to me to be the key:

"...with the chance to win a series for the first time in 8 years in TB, against a heart of the lineup which has come back on us from many more than 5 runs too many times to count."

uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#293038) #
And iirc sanchez first got up in a four run game in the 7th with the possibility of zobrist and longoria coming up with runners on base. Their #9 hitter had singled off of loup, and if zobrist had got on, righties myers and longoria were due up with longo potentially the tying run. There was a chance that could have turned into a high leverage situation pretty quickly.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#293039) #
What that number probably tells us is that the hitting and pitching have for the most part been hot or cold at the same time.

That's a more accurate of the Season to date. But I must apologize, while this is a very good and streaky Offense, I don't think it's consistent enough to be termed elite.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#293040) #
It would behoove you to put the consistency of the other top offenses in baseball under your microscope.
Paul D - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#293041) #
The last time they showed Sanchez warming up, Janssen was standing behind him with his jacket on.  Do you think Gibbons also wanted Janssen to be up in case Sanchez ran into trouble?  I'm assuming it was that, and not that Janssen got up of his own accord.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#293042) #
With Loup pitching in the bottom of the 7th, the Jays were ahead 7-2.  Loup got the first two batters, and then Guyer had a ground ball single.  If Zobrist, Myers and Joyce reached base, then the at-bat against Longoria would be reasonably high leverage.  You do not need to have a pitcher warming 3 batters ahead of time.  That's managing scared.
Hodgie - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#293043) #
I can't recall which article it was, but the Jays recently were quoted as saying that they are trying to provide a more structured routine for Sanchez than what is typically used for relievers. I obviously do not know if this played any part in his utilization last night, but if the plan was to already limit his work over the next couple of days then I don't mind his insertion into the game.

On the topic of Gibbons managing scared, could anyone really fault him if he was? Despite a wildly inconsistent season and a horrid August, the team still has an outside shot at a playoff birth. His list of trusted performers at this point must be relatively short. Unless Gibbons starts abusing players such as Sanchez and Stroman he probably should be managing every game like it is his last - at 4.5 games out with 24 games left it could very well be that is the case.

Hodgie - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#293044) #
This is the article I was alluding to. It speaks more to their desire to use Sanchez in 2 inning stints where possible but mentions providing a more structured and predictable routine a couple of times. Again, not sure if that played any bearing on last night's decision, especially since it was back-to-back usage they are looking to avoid but it is certainly possible.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#293045) #
"That's managing scared."

He has every reason to maanage scared at the trop.

I was watching scared.
China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#293046) #
"....So you're going to bring your best reliever no matter what the score is?..."

No, of course not.  But at the same time, you don't hold back your best reliever, game after game, waiting for precisely the perfect high-leverage moment to use him.  Those moments don't always arrive in a predictable fashion.  And that, after all, is the reason why so many of us have criticized the "slave to the save" philosophy. It's always a mistake to have some rigid rule about the correct usage of relievers (the set-up guy for the 8th inning, the closer for the 9th inning) and never to deviate from that.  You need to be flexible and seize the moment -- as long as your bullpen is deep enough to have reinforcements ready.  And this week is clearly a time when the Jays have a ton of well-rested relievers available (about 9 or 10 of them, in fact).

Moreover, is Sanchez really so much better than every other Jays reliever?  He has the hot hand, but I don't think he is necessarily a Mariano Rivera who is head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the bullpen.  He's only had 23 innings in the major leagues -- it's too early to anoint him the "closer" or "best reliever" or whatever. There have to be other relievers who can step in if he is unavailable. 

"....It's a failing strategy...."

That's entirely speculative.  So far, based on results, you can only say that it's a winning strategy.  If the Jays go on to lose games today or tomorrow because of a bullpen collapse with Sanchez unavailable, then perhaps it's reasonable to criticize the strategy.  But there are always risks to everything that a manager does.  It's always a gamble, and theoretically it can go wrong, but Gibbons in his bullpen management has generally been successful much more often than he's failed.

Alex Obal - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#293047) #
there are no low leverage eituations at the trop. Gibber did NOT want to squander this chance to finally win a series there and break the streak.

See, I thought there were no possible high leverage situations last night. With the win the Jays are now 4.5 games out of a 45% shot at the playoffs - BP has their WC/playoffs odds at 2.2%, and I'd agree that undersells them, but it's still a long shot. They gained 0.3% by winning yesterday. If you figure Aaron's 80% to get Longoria out and Jenkins/Graveman/Morrow/Norris would be 65%... and then there was about a 5% chance Longoria would come up with a chance to tie the game... well...

I don't believe in making showy tactical moves to end curses, anyway. You don't have to step on their throats. This is baseball. Probability will handle it for you.
PeterG - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#293048) #
I think the Happ option will be exercised
McGowan is up in he air
Morrow and Santos will be declined
Thole will be declined if Dickey is not here
One of Dickey or Buerhle or Dickey will be traded
Melky will get the QO but sign elsewhere
Rasmus and Janssen will not get QO and are gone



Mike Green - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#293049) #
Hodgie, I approve of the use of Sanchez as a 2 inning ace reliever.  It doesn't fit at all with back-to-back usage in low leverage situations. 

Alex makes an interesting comment about season leverage. Nonetheless, at this point, Gibbons' job is to win enough games so that the team makes the playoffs.  Moving the needle from 3% to 4% is part of what he ought to be hired to do.  The best way to do that is (in my view) using Sanchez as a 2 inning ace reliever and letting other pitchers fill out other roles.  And as for curses, phooey.  There's no such thing. 

China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#293050) #
"....That's $24.3m we can free up without worsening our team relative to this year even one little bit...."

I generally agree with this point, with one exception:  you shouldn't forget Janssen's amazing first half of this season, which certainly helped the Jays to stay in the pennant chase throughout the first half.  From early May until early July, he played a key role in 17 wins (i.e., he had 14 saves and 3 wins) and his ERA was 1.29.   Janssen might seem easily disposable now, but he was crucial to the team in May and June. 

This raises a broader issue: Anthopoulos really has a tough job to do in remaking the bullpen.  The bullpen has performed poorly in 2014, and it will need to be overhauled. Next year the bullpen is almost certain to be without Janssen and Santos.  It will almost certainly be without Sanchez, who will switch to the rotation.  It could also be without Delabar and McGowan. That's the majority of the 2014 bullpen, probably gone.  Who's left?  Among the regulars, only Cecil and Loup and Redmond are likely to return.  That's a rather small number of returnees -- not exactly a core to build on.  Okay, to be fair, you can probably add Jenkins and maybe Delabar or McGowan, and maybe a young pitcher who isn't quite good enough for the starting rotation -- Graveman or Nolin?  But the reality is that Anthopoulos is going to have to acquire two or three good relievers in the off-season, and he'd better choose correctly.  A lot hinges on it.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#293051) #
"See, I thought there were no possible high leverage situations last night. With the win the Jays are now 4.5 games out of a 45% shot at the playoffs - BP has their WC/playoffs odds at 2.2%, and I'd agree that undersells them, but it's still a long shot. They gained 0.3% by winning yesterday. If you figure Aaron's 80% to get Longoria out and Jenkins/Graveman/Morrow/Norris would be 65%... and then there was about a 5% chance Longoria would come up with a chance to tie the game... well..."

Playoff odds be what they may, cleveland, ny, and toronto would be silly to give up within 5gms with 25gms left.

"I don't believe in making showy tactical moves to end curses, anyway. You don't have to step on their throats. This is baseball. Probability will handle it for you."

Its not a curse that you worry about, its the fact that the rays have proven that they can mash our relievers and come back from 5 runs in a game many times before.

And really, imo longo homering off mcgowan proved to me that gibby was 100% right to treat this like a high leverage situation from the start.

The only move gibby made last night that bugged me was pulling stroman on 76 pitches with the bottom of the order up. But then when madden pulled all his lefties out of the lineup as a result, even that worked out well for an easy 9th.
Alex Obal - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#293052) #
It's not the leverage of today's game within 2014, it's the leverage of 2014 within eternity. If I'm 2.5 games back of WC2 leader Seattle heading into the final week of the season, I'm very willing to use Sanchez in all four Mariners games if necessary. But if I use him (or Norris) for four straight games against the Cubs and Red Sox, I should be fired for incompetence, even though that probably maximizes my chances of moving the needle to 4%...

I'd be looking to use Sanchez for two innings at a time, too.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#293053) #
And as for curses, phooey. There's no such thing.

Amazing that it needs to be said, but yes. The Jays' past record in Tampa should've had no bearing how Gibbons managed. I agree with you, Mike, on the "scared" point as well. For me, the word that's come to mind before is "jittery" -- he gets jittery in situations where there's just no need. Getting key relievers going in the bullpen with a 5-run lead in the 9th after someone gets on base -- that sort of thing.
TangledUpInBlue - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#293054) #
So even if we don't raise payroll we could have $20-25m available to upgrade the roster...

Good analysis in this post, Uglyone. Gives a little more room for optimism.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#293055) #
"But the reality is that Anthopoulos is going to have to acquire two or three good relievers in the off-season, and he'd better choose correctly. A lot hinges on it."

Don't think its really a big deal. RP are lottery tickets, and you can check out the performance of this year's free agent RP signings if you don't believe me.

Picking up a few more cheap big arms (maybe even our guys back on cheap deals) to add to a mix of cecil, loup, redmond, jenkins, rasmussen, delabar, drabek, stilson, nolin, sanchez, norris, graveman, should give us every chance at having a good bullpen next year i think.

Especially if most of them aren't locked into roster spots, so we can move them up and down as need be.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#293056) #
"I generally agree with this point, with one exception: you shouldn't forget Janssen's amazing first half of this season, which certainly helped the Jays to stay in the pennant chase throughout the first half. From early May until early July, he played a key role in 17 wins (i.e., he had 14 saves and 3 wins) and his ERA was 1.29. Janssen might seem easily disposable now, but he was crucial to the team in May and June. "

Unfortunately, his disaster performance over the last month or two has cost as as many games as his first half success won us.
Paul D - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#293057) #
Uglyone, on the one hand, yes, bullpens are erratic.  On the other hand (stolen from Chris Black via Jonah Keri):

Jays Bullpen ERA rank last 5 seasons
2010 - 21st
2011 - 21st
2012 - 25th
2013 - 9th
2014 - 26th

uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#293058) #
And all the good relievers are staying, anyways. Janssen is the only one with any positive value at all that's gone, and he has been the least valuable of this group when you consider innings pitched:

Loup: 62.2ip, 0.6fwar, 1.5bwar, 1.1avg
Cecil: 45.0ip, 0.9fwar, 0.9bwar, 0.9avg
Sanchez: 23.2ip, 0.6fwar, 0.9bwar, 0.8avg
Redmond: 71.1ip, 0.6fwar, 0.9bwar, 0.8avg
Jenkins: 31.2ip, 0.2fwar, 0.7bwar, 0.5avg
Janssen: 37.2ip, 0.1war, 0.2bwar, 0.2avg
Drabek: 3.0ip, 0.1fwar, 0.1bwar, 0.1avg
Rasmussen: 11.1ip, 0.0fwar, 0.2bwar, 0.1avg


The rest have been purely replacement or worse:

McGowan: 38.0ip, -0.2fwar, 0.2bwar, 0.0avg
Korecky: 3.1ip, 0.0fwar, -0.1bwar, -0.1avg
Jeffress: 3.1ip, 0.0fwar, -0.1bwar, -0.1avg
Wagner: 10.0ip, 0.0fwar, -0.4bwar, -0.2avg
Delabar: 25.2ip, -0.4fwar, -0.1bwar, -0.3avg
Rogers: 20.2ip, -0.2fwar, -0.4bwar, -0.3avg
Mills: 4.1ip, -0.2fwar, -0.4bwar, -0.3avg
Santos: 21.0ip, -0.5fwar, -1.3bwar, -0.9avg
China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#293059) #
".....The only move gibby made last night that bugged me was pulling stroman on 76 pitches with the bottom of the order up....."

Gibbons explained later that he pulled Stroman because of the delay after the electrical failure at the stadium.  It was a half-hour delay, and he noticed that Stroman was unable to stay loose.  He was stiffening up, so he was pulled (after that one pitch to Molina).  Similar things happen during rain delays.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#293061) #
"Uglyone, on the one hand, yes, bullpens are erratic. On the other hand (stolen from Chris Black via Jonah Keri):

Jays Bullpen ERA rank last 5 seasons
2010 - 21st
2011 - 21st
2012 - 25th
2013 - 9th
2014 - 26th"

Yeah, not pretty, but maybe a bit misleading to include NL teams.

AL ranks:

2014 - 12th
2013 - 4th
2012 - 14th
2011 - 9th
2010 - 10th

More importantly, though, is we've for the most part spent guaranteed money on the 'pen, only to get burned by sticking too long with a guy on a guaranteed contract.

2010: Tallet 50.0ip, 6.85era (6 other rp with 20+ip, all with eras under 3.71).
2011: Rauch 52.0ip, 4.85era (9 other rp with 20+ip, all under 4.27, 6 under 3.68).
2012: Cordero 34.1ip, 5.77era, Lincoln 28.2ip, 5.65era (8 other rp with 20+ip, all under 4.12, 7 under 3.43).
2013: nobody awful, but worst three were guys we felt committed to - rogers 31.0/4.36, lincoln 31.2/3.98, oliver 49/3.86
2014: Santos 21.2ip/8.57, Rogers 20.2ip/6.97, Delabar 25.2ip/4.91 (7 other rp with 20+ip, all under 3.82, 5 under 3.20)


And of course this year is the first time we've had a normal amount of IP from our SP to fairly judge our bullpen. Don't think we could blame the 2010-2012 pens for being a bit below average in era with the workload they were forced to bear.

This year, though, the SP have given a solid workload so the RP definitely deserve the criticism...and unfortunately again its the guys who had guaranteed spots coming into the year that have been the culprits for the most part.

I really do think we've shot ourselves in the foot by sticking too long with guys we felt were too good to give up on, even when they were sucking. IMO they're lottery tickets, and should all be treated the same.
China fan - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#293062) #
"....IMO they're lottery tickets, and should all be treated the same...."

Perhaps, but that doesn't answer the thorny question of how to decide when your "lottery ticket" is a winner or a loser.  Let's say you load up the organization with 20 fungible relievers, you stack them in Toronto and Buffalo and New Hampshire, and then you try to sort out the winners and losers.  Can you really decide on the basis of 10 or 15 innings of performance?  Do you dump someone from the roster as soon as he pitches a few bad innings? Is it some kind of revolving door, based on how you've performed in your last few games?  I'm very doubtful that this is a practical strategy.  Almost every reliever has a few bad outings, and you can't just get rid of everyone who isn't constantly brilliant. Nor can you do a straight-line projection from recent results.  At some point you've got to rely on your scouts and coaches, pick your best bullpen and have some faith in it for a couple of months or more.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#293065) #
John Mayberry Jr. was acquired to be Adam Lind's platoon partner because he hits well, what Adam doesn't. John is 2nd Arby for next year and not a Free Agent until the end of 2016 Season. He can play all the OF positions, so he's very valuable going forward.

Adam Lind does well enough to get his option picked up, and until A.A. can replace Adam with better, expect him back.

hypobole - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#293066) #
The answer to the reliever dilemma is to incorporate a little used, but simple strategy called "hindsight". If one of your relievers is getting pounded, you get rid of him before that happens.
PeteMoss - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#293067) #
Yes... and acquiring that bad bullpen cost them Yan Gomes, Mike Aviles, and other bit parts.

I'm fine with spending some money on relievers... but please no more trades for them.

ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#293068) #
I take it that Dan Johnson died, thus Kawasaki pinch hitting.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#293069) #
with a 43 man bench, using mune to pinch hit is a bit odd.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#293070) #
"Perhaps, but that doesn't answer the thorny question of how to decide when your "lottery ticket" is a winner or a loser. Let's say you load up the organization with 20 fungible relievers, you stack them in Toronto and Buffalo and New Hampshire, and then you try to sort out the winners and losers. Can you really decide on the basis of 10 or 15 innings of performance? Do you dump someone from the roster as soon as he pitches a few bad innings? Is it some kind of revolving door, based on how you've performed in your last few games? I'm very doubtful that this is a practical strategy. Almost every reliever has a few bad outings, and you can't just get rid of everyone who isn't constantly brilliant. Nor can you do a straight-line projection from recent results. At some point you've got to rely on your scouts and coaches, pick your best bullpen and have some faith in it for a couple of months or more."

The first issue is starting the year with the relievers who have actually earned the spots, instead of handing spots to guys, which the jays haven't done.

The second issue is to NOT persist for a "couple of months" with a reliever who is struggling. A couple of WEEKS is pushing it. For me, more than a few bad outings in a row and another guy gets a shot.
Mike Green - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#293071) #
This wouldn't be a bad situation for Aaron Sanchez in an alternate universe, no?
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#293072) #
Good thing Buerhle is out if the game after a quick 3 up 3 down. Less Buerhle, more Gibbons.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#293073) #
In evaluating the Jays' offense, I would like to know how it has performed in the aggregate (wRC+, OPS+, etc.) since June 6 -- in other words, over the last three months of the season. I'm guessing that the number would be significantly less than elite. I think Shi Davidi did the math a couple of weeks ago and came up with something like a 700 OPS.

Happy to be proved wrong by facts (as opposed to fanboy truthiness).
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#293074) #
oh baby, cecil.

that was sweet.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#293075) #
greenfrog, when you are using artificial splits to ignore parts of the season to support your own biased argument, you're gonna have to do your own legwork, sawry.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#293076) #
colby.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#293077) #
Let Cecil finish
BlueJayWay - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#293078) #
Well that was fun.
Alex Obal - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 10:17 PM EDT (#293080) #
They swept a series in Tampa Bay. All things are possible. Mark Buehrle's legend grows...

Rasmus just earned himself a bit of money and a lot of respect. Janssen's stuff looked a little livelier than it has recently. And if nothing else, give Gibbons a gold star for getting McGee out of the game by pinch-hitting Mayberry for Lind.
smcs - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#293081) #
I'm not sure I can remember a home run that went that far at Tropicana. Colby Rasmus connecting with a baseball is a beautiful thing.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#293082) #
yeah, colby's homer swing is about as pretty as it gets. a little bit of baseball perfection each time.
PeteMoss - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#293083) #
Oh boo Uehera.
hypobole - Thursday, September 04 2014 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#293084) #
Should Madden have removed McGee for Geltz? The numbers don't say he should have in that situation.
Richard S.S. - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 01:29 AM EDT (#293085) #
Question: Do you extend Mark Buehrle beyond next year? Do you even consider it?
China fan - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:56 AM EDT (#293086) #
".....This wouldn't be a bad situation for Aaron Sanchez in an alternate universe, no?...."

And yet, back in the real world, Gibbons was able to call on other relievers who turned out to be perfectly capable. Maybe it wasn't such a failing strategy?
Richard S.S. - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 06:07 AM EDT (#293087) #
Where was this elite offense verses a decent to maybe good Starter after crushing two much better Starters? Does it disappear again?
Richard S.S. - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#293088) #
In Games determined by one run, the Jays are 12-13, a dismal record. Is it Offense, Starters or Bullpen that is at issue here, or all three?

The Season started poorly, with Offense, Starters and Bullpen not being consistent to any degree. The Bullpen collapse really started April 17th, game two, ending any chance of the Jays staying in first place.

I never understood what happened when St. Louis came to town, 6-8 June. Toronto faced just good pitching, not very good, not great. It started Toronto's slide out of First, basically because Offense forgot to hit.

Then facing basically a AAA team in Houston, Toronto dropped three of four facing just good pitching, being outscored 22-10 in the series. it started a stretch of Starters not pitching well.

The Season was theirs for the taking until August almost made it impossible. Just going 12-14 instead of 9-17 means a 6 game swing in the standing. It would mean 2nd place just 4 games back, instead of third 10 GBL. It means a two game lead in the second WC just one game back from Home Field Advantage, instead of 4th 4.5 GBL (2nd WC).
Jonny German - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 07:18 AM EDT (#293090) #
"The Bullpen collapse really started April 17th, game two, ending any chance of the Jays staying in first place."

And yet the Jays were in first place as late as July 3...

Do you even attempt to make sense?
bpoz - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 07:21 AM EDT (#293091) #
You are right Richard. I certainly expected 3 wins against Houston. That is "expected", against TB 3 wins is "hoped for".
All this analysis is great, so is strategy. Luck or hot/cold seems to trump everything. It definitely will in the playoffs.
The 6 game swing is a viable concept. I think we are seeing something of this with KC/ Detroit. It seems to me that Detroit should be comfortably ahead.
AWeb - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#293092) #

In Games determined by one run, the Jays are 12-13, a dismal record.

Dismal? We've all seen some dismal 1-run game records around here, but this year ain't one of them (after last night, it's actually 14-14, according to MLB and baseball reference, 5-6 in extra innings). Last year was 20-29. Year before was 15-25. Those were dismal. 2009 was 21-29. In 2008 a very good team went 24-32 (burying themselves in April with a 2-8 1-run game record).

You like to dispute the use of the word "elite" for the offense (and I agree, the offense isn't elite, just above average). This year's team, and I say this with complete confidence, has been average in 1-run games. Exactly average.

bpoz - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#293093) #
In the use of the pen LH & RH is a critical factor. So if Santos & Delabar are having a bad year and they are your top 2 RH guys then your choice is mainly bad. Good thing McGowan stepped up this year. I like that Delabar has been shut down for the year. He could come back very strong for next years pen.
McGowan should prepare in the off season like he would be a starter. This may help him some how. I do not know how or what he has to do for this.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#293094) #
I really don't get the argument. Seems pretty clear cut to me.


OPS

TOR: .743 (3rd mlb, 2nd al)

AL best: DET .758
AL avg: .710
AL worst: SEA .678

MLB best: COL .767
MLB avg: .703
MLB worst: SD .633


wOBA

TOR: .328 (3rd mlb, 2nd al)

AL best: DET .331
AL avg: .314
AL worst: SEA .300

MLB best: COL .334
MLB avg: .311
MLB worst: SD .283


wRC+

TOR: 106 (3rd mlb, 3rd al)

AL best: DET 109
AL avg: 99
AL worst: TEX 86

MLB best: DET 109
MLB avg: 96
MLB worst: SD 81


BEST starters wRC+

Bautista 153 (7th mlb, 4th al)
Encarnacion 151 (8th mlb, 5th al)

Worst starters:

Rasmus 103
Lawrie 100




Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#293095) #
And yet, back in the real world, Gibbons was able to call on other relievers who turned out to be perfectly capable. Maybe it wasn't such a failing strategy?

The piper has not yet been paid.  I am glad that Cecil worked out of it, but the idea that Sanchez was a better choice with a 5 run lead in the 7th inning and no days rest than Cecil kind of took a beating when Cecil is brought in in a tie game in the 9th inning the following day facing the same batters. 
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#293096) #
In Games determined by one run, the Jays are 12-13, a dismal record.

Please. That's not dismal at all. One-run games are largely a matter of luck, and one-run games by nature pull all teams towards .500. Teams that play .600 ball overall tend to play .550 ball in one-run games; teams that play .400 ball tend to play .450 ball in one-run games. That's how they work. If you're a .500 team like the 2014 Jays and you play .500 ball in one-run games, that's extremely normal; if you do better, you're probably a bad team that got lucky in its close games.

And anyway - the 2005 Jays went 16-31 in one-run games. Now that was dismal. Not as bad as the 1975 Astros (17-41) or the 1992 Dodgers (17-40.) But pretty awful.
China fan - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#293097) #
"....the idea that Sanchez was a better choice with a 5 run lead in the 7th inning and no days rest than Cecil kind of took a beating when Cecil is brought in in a tie game in the 9th inning the following day facing the same batters...."

Actually they were both excellent choices in either situation.  Brett Cecil over the past month:  12.1 innings, 7 hits, 4 walks, 23 strikeouts, zero runs.  Even Sanchez hasn't pitched that well. 

Bottom line: the bullpen held the fort, the Jays swept the series, and their bullpen is well-stocked and well-rested for the Red Sox series.
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#293098) #
Then facing basically a AAA team in Houston

Nonsense. Houston has the exact same record as the Boston Red Sox, whom no one seems to regard as a AAA team, and Houston's certainly a better team than Boston. The Astros play in a much tougher division (one with three good teams rather than one) - Houston has gone 16-18 against the AL East, but they're 12-20 against Oakland and Los Angeles. If the Astros were in the AL East, I imagine they'd have roughly the same record as Tampa Bay. If not better.
bpoz - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:43 AM EDT (#293099) #
I like that you do your research and then make your statements, Magpie.
I agree that in last nights 1 run game, we got lucky.
Is it fair to say that 2 teams tied for a playoff spot are not equal because of one teams significantly superior/lucky 1 run record? I think yes. The team with the worse 1 run record is really better.
In 1987 the Tigers got into the playoffs by having a better record, but just barely. Was it good luck and hopefully not a huge amount. In today's rules good luck can get you in and carry you to a championship. St Louis when they traded Rasmus to us. BIG HORSE SHOES.
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#293101) #
I don't think so, Magpie.  The AL West is +9 over the season; the AL East is +11.  The front-runners in the West aren't quite as good as they look because they have had the privilege of beating up on the hard-luck Rangers so often.  I'd venture a guess that the divisions are about even (the AL West has significantly underperformed Pythagoras this year). 
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#293102) #
Actually they were both excellent choices in either situation

So the manager brings out the pitcher who has thrown the day before rather than the one who has two days rest?  The best defence for Gibbons is that he made a minor error and leave it at that. 
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#293103) #
Is it fair to say that 2 teams tied for a playoff spot are not equal because of one teams significantly superior/lucky 1 run record?

Probably. A team's record in blowouts is a much better indicator of actual quality. In one-run games, anything can happen. But almost no one wins 10-3 by getting lucky. In 1987, the Tigers went 26-16 in one-run games, which is very good. They were a helluva team, of course; they were even better in blowouts (30-17.) And the ill-fated 1987 Jays went 27-24 in one-run games, which is pretty good (they were an excellent 27-20 in one-run games before that final week.) They went 29-12 in blowouts, which is extremely impressive.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#293104) #
I think it's time to retire the "weak AL East" meme.

The division has the best division record in baseball. The Orioles have the 2nd best record in baseball. The division has 3 teams above .500 and within 5gms of a playoff spot. The division only has one team in the bottom 10 in mlb.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:04 AM EDT (#293105) #
"So the manager brings out the pitcher who has thrown the day before rather than the one who has two days rest? The best defence for Gibbons is that he made a minor error and leave it at that. "

Not at all.

Gibbons used Loup as his lefty, and Madden took all of his lefties out of the game as a result. Wouldn't make sense to then bring in another lefty.

Pitching back to back days is really not a big deal at all. Every reliever does it.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#293106) #
"Where was this elite offense verses a decent to maybe good Starter after crushing two much better Starters? Does it disappear again?"

Mike Trout went 0-4 last night.

Also not elite?
China fan - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#293107) #
"....The best defence for Gibbons is that he made a minor error and leave it at that...."

Nope, nice try, but we're not leaving it at that.  I don't see any evidence of an error, minor or otherwise.  If you're going to establish that it was an error, you have to include some consideration of a lot of other factors that Gibbons could have been considering about the game situation, the matchups, the readiness of the pitchers, their health history, their relative ability to pitch on consecutive days or consecutive innings, how often they've been warmed up, their age, their experience, their stuff, and many other factors.  You're trying to reduce it to one or two simplified factors and then pronounce yourself smarter than the manager.  If we're going to simplify it to one or two factors, the ultimate test is the results.  And by that test, the error is yours, rather than the manager's.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#293108) #
"My hits are, like pow, suck on that, you know?" - Colby Rasmus

from a great article on hitting v. The Shift: http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/puzzling-year-for-snakebit-rasmus-blue-jays/
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#293109) #
All right, uglyone and CF.  You win.  It was an act of brilliance to warm Sanchez up with a 7-2 lead on Wednesday night.  I don't know why the club just doesn't give Gibbons a 5 year extension already and be done with it!
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#293110) #
The division has 3 teams above .500 and within 5gms of a playoff spot.

Uh, so does the AL West. So does the AL Central.

I don't know how one would measure the strength of a division, but the problem with W-L record is going to be all those games played within your own division. Here are the W-L records of every AL team against AL opponents from the other divisions.

Los Angeles 39-23  .629
Oakland     36-26  .581
Seattle     36-26  .581
Kansas City 32-27 .542
Cleveland   31-27  .534

Baltimore   33-29  .532
Detroit     35-31  .530
New York    33-30  .524
Tampa Bay   29-31  .483
Houston     29-33  .468

Toronto     28-34  .452
Boston      28-34  .452
Chicago     24-35  .407
Minnesota   25-38  .397
Texas       24-42  .364
Whatever that means. I agree that the Orioles are a very good team and they have a winning record against the AL West. The Yankees have a winning record against the AL Central. But no one else has a winning record outside the division. Meanwhile, Los Angeles, Oakland, and Seattle all have winning records against the AL East and the AL Central. Even Kansas City and Detroit have winning records against the AL East and the AL West.
PeterG - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#293111) #
Question: Do you extend Mark Buehrle beyond next year? Do you even consider it?
No
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#293112) #
Buehrle's got a 3.34era on pace for 200ip.

And we don't like him.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#293113) #
"I don't know how one would measure the strength of a division, but the problem with W-L record is going to be all those games played within your own division."

not really a problem, since games played within your own division always result in a .500 record for the division.
PeterG - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#293114) #
Buehrle's got a 3.34era on pace for 200ip.

And we don't like him.


one of the vet pitchers is certainly to be dealt.....I would prefer it's Dickey but just as likely it will be Buerhle. I know u prefer to decline Happ Ugly but realistically it is going to be one of the other two.....That is probably the most obvious move of the off season.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#293115) #
why would we trade good pitchers and keep the crappy one?
Gerry - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#293117) #
Buehrle is signed through his age 36 season. If you extend him you are signing him for age 37 and beyond. Is it a good idea to extend any pitcher into his age 37 season before you have to? That is a decision you leave until the middle of next year.
PeterG - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#293118) #
Not much difference....Happ is way more cost effecitve than Buerhle and is showing signs of improvement. Dickey is somewhat unreliable and has baggage (forces us to keep Thole).....Dickey might get us a good deal though from an NL team.  I find yer dislike for Happ to be somewhat irrational....but to each his own. I guess we will have to agree to diaagree on value but I would he very surprised if Happ is not retained and if one of the others is not moved.
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#293119) #
not really a problem, since games played within your own division always result in a .500 record for the division.

Yup, but I think of it as a whole lot of Noise in the Data, and we can see what's going on much more clearly if we get rid of it. The AL West collectively - despite Houston and Texas - has a winning record against both the East and the Central. The three elite teams in that division all have better records against the AL teams outside their divisions than they do against their West opponents. Their W-L records are being dragged down by their games within their own division.
John Northey - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#293120) #
I think Buehrle getting extended would need to be a salary shift extension... IE: his $19 mil next year is pushed down to $15 while the following year that the Jays might think of as worth $12 mil goes to $16 mil (to recover the cut in this year) if that allows more flexibility in payroll.  However, Buehrle might not like that idea and insist on $19 in year 2 or a 3rd year added so it'd be $15/$15/$15 or something. 

Realistically, with all the kids coming and Buehrle getting up there in age the Jays will be most likely exploring trade options but keeping him in the end until the contract runs out then make a qualifying offer (if he has a good year) and take the draft pick.  Happ ends up being the one traded (low salary, fairly consistent year-to-year results with ERA+ the past 3 being 86-90-90 so you know what you get although it isn't exciting if you have a lot of rotation issues he'd be nice to have).  Dickey also will be on the block, but harder to trade due to the personal catcher issue and his results being solid but not 'wow' in any respect (he'll have around 200 IP and has a 100 ERA+).

uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#293121) #
M.Buehrle (35, $19m for 2015)

2014: 175.0ip, 118era+, 3.70fip, 3.5bwar, 3.0fwar, 3.3avg
PACE: 200.0ip, 118era+, 3.70fip, 4.0bwar, 3.4fwar, 3.7avg
2013: 203.2ip, 99era+, 4.10fip, 2.1bwar, 2.7fwar, 2.4avg
2012: 202.1ip, 109era+, 4.18fip, 3.5bwar, 2.0fwar, 2.8avg
2011: 205.1ip, 121era+, 3.98fip, 3.8bwar, 3.4fwar, 3.6avg
2010: 210.1ip, 100era+, 3.90fip, 4.0bwar, 3.7fwar, 3.9avg


R.Dickey (39, $12m for 2015)

2014: 182.2ip, 100era+, 4.39fip, 1.8bwar, 1.7fwar, 1.8avg
PACE: 215.0ip, 100era+, 4.39fip, 2.1bwar, 2.0fwar, 2.1avg
2013: 224.2ip, 98era+, 4.58fip, 2.0bwar, 2.1fwar, 2.1avg
2012: 233.2ip, 139era+, 3.27fip, 5.8bwar, 4.4fwar, 5.0avg
2011: 208.2ip, 112era+, 3.77fip, 3.6bwar, 2.2fwar, 2.9avg
2010: 174.1ip, 138era+, 3.65fip, 3.6bwar, 2.6fwar, 3.1avg


J.Happ (31, #7m for 2015)

2014: 125.2ip, 90era+, 4.28fip, 1.1bwar, 1.1fwar, 1.1avg
PACE: 150.0ip, 90era+, 4.28fip, 1.3bwar, 1.3fwar, 1.3avg
2013: 92.2ip, 90era+, 4.31fip, 0.1bwar, 1.2fwar, 0.6avg
2012: 144.2ip, 86era+, 4.01fip, 0.7bwar, 1.8fwar, 1.3avg
2011: 156.1ip, 71era+, 4.69fip, -1.8bwar, 0.3fwar, -0.8avg
2010: 87.1ip, 118era+, 4.32fip, 1.4bwar, 0.9fwar, 1.2avg


Why pay $7m for a guy who is a gamble to even give you 1war, and not pay $12m for a very safe bet to give you 2war, or $19m for a safe bet to get you 3war?
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#293122) #
I expect that after 2015 Buehrle will want to return to the mid-West. Some contending NL team, with a really good catcher. One that plays in Missouri would be ideal, one would think. Hey...
PeterG - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#293123) #
You also have to consider what will come in return. Help is needed in other areas. I can easily see Dickey and Buerhle both gone by mid season 2015.
jerjapan - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#293124) #
Agreed Gerry, no need for an extension for Buehrle, but I've got no problem with bringing him back - for a lot less than next year's, gulp, 20 million.  He's certainly a great role model for our young pitchers.

If one of the vets is dealt does that money get spent on improvements, or pocketed by Rogers?  If it gets pocketed, I could see AA keeping our staff intact and trading a vet in May if a norris or Sanchez forces his hand.   Dickey, with his durability and contract, is definitely a valuable trade chip.  would rogers swallow some of Buehrle's salary to get value in exchange?  at this point I doubt it, although Fangraphs does have him as worth 16.7 million this season.

At this point, I'd give 5 to 1 odds that Happ is back - his velocity is up, and with the 200k buyout considered, 6.5 million is good value. 



Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#293125) #
Apropos of nothing... they were talking on the broadcast about how Buehrle never misses a turn. Basically - that's correct. I believe the only time Buehrle has missed a turn was in September 2007. No real reason for it - Buehrle was coming off a very good start against Detroit, he was healthy. But the Sox were out of it, John Danks was off the DL and Ozzie wanted to take a look at Danks. So Danks took Buehrle's start, got beat, went to the pen, and Buehrle took his next turn through the rotation.

Buehrle also missed a start during his first year as a starter, in May 2001. I'm pretty sure it was a rainout, or something weird. His day to pitch was a Friday, but no game was played. Which is unusual enough to begin with; especially as the Sox would then play in Texas on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#293126) #
Buehrle's on pace to comfortably outperform his salary this year, and is a good bet to do so next year.

By fangraph's FA$ metric, Beurhle was worth $13.3m last year, we paid him $11.0m. This year Buehrle is on pace to give us about $19.0m in value, and we're paying him $18.0m.

Last year Dickey was worth $10.6m, we paid him $5.0m. This year Dickey is on pace to be worth $11.3m, we're paying him $12.0m.

This isn't the area of the team that's been inefficient in terms of payroll.




"Help is needed in other areas."

You're going to trade a 3war SP for....bullpen help?
hypobole - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#293127) #
Not quite sure why Buehrle is a safe bet for 3 WAR when he didn't average than in either of his past 2 seasons and will be 36 next year.

Happ has over 1 WAR 2 of the past 3 seasons, is 3 1/2 yrs younger than Buehrle and is a gamble to do it next year?



uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#293128) #
avg wars last 5yrs:

Buehrle: 3.7, 2.4, 2.8, 3.6, 3.9
Happ: 1.3, 0.6, 1.3, -0.8, 1.2

Buehrle: 3.7 1yravg, 3.1 2yravg, 3.0 3yravg, 3.1 4yravg, 3.3 5yravg
Happ: 1.3 1yravg, 1.0 2yravg, 1.1 3yravg, 0.6 4yravg, 0.7 5yravg
hypobole - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#293129) #
On the other hand, trading Buehrle will free up his $19 million salary, but for what? FA hitters don't want to play on turf, and FA pitchers don't seem to like the "launching paddiness" of the RC. So, yeah, the money freed up may well be mostly pocketed.
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#293131) #
On the narrow question of projecting Buehrle for 2015, I do have some thoughts.

First, there is the question of how to value his performance in 2013 and 2014.  It is important to understand that fangraphs weights FIP more than ERA and BBRef weights ERA more than FIP for WAR purposes.  Buehrle over his career has a significantly better ERA (3.81) than FIP (4.11) for reasons that are entirely understandable- he is an excellent fielder and has an excellent pick-off move.  For those reasons, it is fair to say that he is a 3+ WAR pitcher right now. 

Second, there is the question of how a pitcher of his type- a soft-tossing, reasonably effective, extraordinarily durable lefty- is likely to age.  Using BBRef's comparison tool, the two pitchers who are reasonably close would be Jim Kaat and Andy Pettitte.  Tom Glavine would be somewhat better, although how much of that is due to having a great defence behind him is open to some question.  Red Ruffing might be somewhat similar.  All of these pitchers fared well in their late 30s.I guess the downside is a pitcher like Frank Viola who pitched 200 innings a year until age 32 and then was pretty much done.  Subjectively, Buehrle is perhaps the most solid-looking pitcher I have ever seen.  Given the overall experience of his most comparable pitchers (performance sustained into the late 30s), I think that he's a good bet to remain about the same for the next two or three years. 
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#293132) #
how much of that is due to having a great defence behind him is open to some question.

Hmm. I wonder just how good that Braves defense was. Andruw was awesome when he got there, and Marquis Grissom won a couple of Gold Gloves in CF before Andruw arrived. But the left side of the infield - a big deal for a LH finesse pitcher - was mainly Jeff Blauser and Chipper Jones. Who I don't think were bad defensive players, but they definitely earned their money with their bats.
jerjapan - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#293133) #
Happ's WAR in TO isn't the best measure of his value, given that he's been a borderline depth starter - 6 starts in 2012 when we acquired him, 18 last year, 21 so far this year.  Given that (according to Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs)  the average team needs 32 starts from starters not in their top 5, Happ has real value to this team as insurance, and if Sanchez / Norris force AA's hand, he can be shifted to the pen without concern for his development - he's a 32 year old free agent to be.

also, it is a contract year.  if he catches the magical contract-year disease, he could be worth a qualifying offer ...

uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#293134) #
christ. one little win streak and I'm back here avoiding work all day every day again.


Jays' Value this year (wish I could use average war instead of just fangraphs' war to calculate value but whatever).

I'll pace their fangraphs FA$ value out as best as I can over the last month of the year, and compare to their actual salary.

Remember - this is in comparison to FREE AGENT value only, so of course the majority of players will have surplus value, especially the non-free agents.


Big Surplus Value

Stroman $18.0 value - $0.5 salary = +$17.5 surplus value
Bautista $29.0 - $14.0 = +$15.0
Hutchison $14.7 - $0.5 = +$14.2
En'cion $19.0 - $9.0 = +$10.0
Navarro $12.3 - $3.0 = +$9.3
Lawrie $8.7 - $0.5 = +$8.2
Gose $8.3 - $0.5 = +$7.8
Cabrera $15.5 - $8.0 = +$7.5
Cecil $6.5 - $1.3 = +$5.2

Moderate Surplus Value

Sanchez $4.9 - $0.5 = +$4.4
Redmond $4.1 - $0.5 = +$3.6
Francisco $4.7 - $1.4 = +$3.3
Loup $3.6 - $0.5 = +$3.1
Reyes $18.7 - $16.0 = +$2.7
Valencia $2.8 - $0.5 = +$2.3

Get What You Paid For

Happ $7.1 - $5.2 = +1.9
Buehrle $19.0 - $18.0 = +$1.0
Kawasaki $1.3 - $0.5 = +$0.8
Jenkins $1.2 - $0.5 = +$0.7
Tolleson $0.4 - $0.5 = -$0.1
Lind $6.6 - $7.0 = -$0.3
Dickey $11.3 - $12.0 = -$0.7
Thole $0.6 - $1.3 = -$0.7

Moderate Negative Value

Izturis $1.0 - $3.0 = -$2.0
McGowan -$0.7 - $1.5 = -$2.2
Delabar -$2.1 - $0.5 = -$2.6
Rasmus $3.5 - $7.0 = -$3.5
Janssen $0.5 - $4.0 = -$3.5

Big Negative Value

Morrow $1.9 - $8.0 = -$6.1
Santos -$2.9 - $3.8 = -$6.7



Conveniently, most all of the negative value players this year can be let go this offseason as free agents. Delabar can be stashed in the minors again, making Izturis the only one of these guys we're forced to keep.

It will cost $1.5m to buyout Morrow and McGowan's options, though.

The next step IMO would be to go through the "Get what you paid for" section and see how tough it would be to replace the contributions those players made for cheaper internally or on the FA market.
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#293135) #
Edit for that post - to be fair I went back and paced out Happ's SP value separate from his RP value, and doing that he ends up with $7.6 in value this year, and +$2.4 in surplus value, moving him up into the "Moderate Surplus Value" Group.
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#293137) #
Evaluating Glavine and his defence is very complicated, both from a numerical and subjective perspective.  With Atlanta, he gave up a large number of unearned runs and had the best defence in the league (30-80 runs above average according to BBRef's figures) behind him.  Andruw Jones was, of course, awesome.  Furcal and Walt Weiss were very good. Javy Lopez was pretty good.  Chipper Jones not so much.

What Glavine was particularly good at was getting the call on the black.  It's an area where a good hitter will take it up the middle, and (perhaps) the harder plays that result will be for the centerfielder than for the third baseman.  The tools we have for separating all of that out are not that refined.  It should be noted that over his career, baserunners were 226-168 stealing bases against him and that certainly helped him.  Personally, my guess is that his ERA+ through age 34 (121) modestly overrates him and he is essentially of the same quality as Buehrle (ERA+ of 117 through age 34).


uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#293139) #
"Given that (according to Jeff Sullivan at Fangraphs) the average team needs 32 starts from starters not in their top 5, Happ has real value to this team as insurance"

but how hard is it to find a 1war SP for peanuts, especially one who you can stick in the minors if need be?

Last year the jays took fliers on a bunch of league min guys, and they did this as SP (not counting internal prospect types):

Redmond: 14gs, 0.8
Rogers: 20gs, 0.6
Wang: 6gs, -0.1
Ortiz: 4gs, -0.2

the yr before:

Villaneuva 16gs, 0.8
Laffey 16gs, 0.0
Chavez 2gs, 0.0

the yr before

villanueva 13gs, 1.2
Reyes 20gs, 1.1

the yr before

Hill 4gs, 0.5
Eveland 9gs, 0.0
Tallet 5gs, -0.2


This year

Happ 21gs, 1.2
Hendricks 3gs, -0.1


Does Happ really stand out as a $7m upgrade over these kinds of guys?
China fan - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#293140) #
".....one little win streak and I'm back here avoiding work all day every day again...."

I sympathize.  And this thread has more than 210 posts so far.  That's a pretty impressive thread, and an indication that Jays fans are still heavily engaged with their team -- which is unusual for this time of year.  Maybe my standards have fallen very low, but I consider it a successful season if the Jays are still generating a lot of interest from fans in September.
Jonny German - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#293142) #
It's a mystery to me how anyone can look at at +1.1 WAR for Jo-Jo Reyes' time in Toronto and think "Yup, that sounds about right" rather than "Nope, something really doesn't add up with this stat".
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#293144) #
It's a mystery to me how anyone can look at at +1.1 WAR for Jo-Jo Reyes' time in Toronto and think "Yup, that sounds about right" rather than "Nope, something really doesn't add up with this stat".

That's fangraphs WAR, Jonny.  Reyes was -0.7 BBRef WAR.  Reyes FIP was not horrific in Toronto, in the same way that Josh Johnson's was actually not so bad. It is best to not take either BBRef WAR or fangraphs WAR too seriously for pitchers in small samples (and if you take an average of the two, you'll get a lot closer to something that one might be comfortable with). 
PeterG - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#293145) #
Some people pay way to much attention to stats, especially from the past, instead of just using their eyes and their instinct. The above example on Jo jo is a great example of how some stats can lead one astray just as earlier in the season, past stats misled some into thinking Colby was a good player when it was obvious just watching that he was or is not. Minor league pitching stats, whether simple or advanced, can also be extremely misleading. They are fun to analyze and discuss but taking them  too seriously as opposed to the opinions of managers and scouts is likely going to lead to an incorrect evaluation.  End of rant.
Paul D - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#293146) #
Anyone else buy playoff tickets today? I went for the first two series. $1,000 for the 500s in the World Series was too much for me right now.
jerjapan - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#293147) #
Does Happ really stand out as a $7m upgrade over these kinds of guys?

$6.5, but I know I'm knitpicking here.

I think Happ is significantly better than all of those players, and with his improved velocity, going into his walk year, he stands a decent chance of actually being better next year. 

Having a known commodity as your number 5/6 starter negates the search for replacement level - the Wangs and the Hills.

although my personal 'one that got away' this year would be Rogers.  He's looked solid as a yank, and did seem to have sorted out his control issues somewhat in Buffalo.  the writing was on the wall when he got called up and didn't make an appearance, but still, he's got that arm. 
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#293148) #
I have yet to actually read any argument as to why Happ is a good investment, stats or no stats. I'm a bit flummoxed at the love for him, to be honest.


If you don't like war, we can look at era+. Here's happ's current season up against recent years of much cheaper FA jays pitchers (in years where they were mostly SP):

Hill '10: 20.2ip, 163era+
Richmond '08: 27.0ip, 107era+
Villanueva '11: 107.0ip, 106era+
Parrish '08: 42.1ip, 106era+
Villanueva '12: 125.1ip, 101era+
Redmond '13: 77.0ip, 96era+
Laffey '12: 100.2ip, 93era+
Happ '13: 92.2ip, 91era+
Happ '12: 40.1ip, 91era+
Happ '14: 125.2ip, 90era+
Rogers '13: 137.2ip, 87era+
Tallet '09: 160.2ip, 83era+
Richmond '09: 138.wip, 80era+
Reyes '11: 110.0ip, 79era+
Ortiz '13: 25.1ip, 70era+
Eveland '10: 44.2ip, 65era+
Wang '13: 27.0ip, 55era+


isn't this just standard #5sp / long reliever type stuff we get from happ? why do we want to pay $7m for it?
Chuck - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#293149) #
$1,000 for the 500s in the World Series was too much for me right now.

Couldn't you just sell your unicorn to get the money?

uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#293150) #
age as of next year, highest level stats:

RHP A.Sanchez (22) - MLB: 0gs, 23.2ip, 8.4k/9, 1.1bb/9, 0.4h/9, .175babip, 0.59whip, 1.52era, 2.20fip
LHP D.Norris (22) - AAA: 4gs, 22.2ip, 15.1k/9, 3.2bb/9, 0.8hr/9, .324babip, 0.97whip, 3.18era, 2.21fip
LHP S.Nolin (25) - AAA: 20gs, 105.0ip, 7.5k/9, 3.9bb/9, 0.6hr/9, .269babip, 1.26whip, 3.17era, 3.94fip
RHP K.Graveman (24) - AAA: 6gs, 38.1ip, 5.2k/9, 1.2bb/9, 0.2hr/9, .282babip, 1.02whip, 1.88era, 2.94fip
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#293152) #
Uglyone, you cannot compare ERA in the bullpen with ERA in the rotation unless you adjust the bullpen ERA up about 10%.  On average pitchers have better ERAs and rate stats out of the bullpen.  So, for instance, Carlos Villanueva has a career ERA of 5.00 out of the rotation (in 76 starts) and 3.57 out of the bullpen.  Happ has been much more effective than Villanueva in the role.  The other thing you have to do is acknowledge that the Jay defence has been below average over the last couple of years and that dings the pitchers. 

The average starter has an ERA+ of 95.  If you make the adjustment for the poor defence, it is probably 93 or 94 on the Blue Jays.  Happ would be fine in the role if he could be counted on to throw 150-180 innings.  That seems optimistic.  The other issue (as you have suggested) is whether the money set for him would be better spent elsewhere given the internal options.  I don't know that there is a clear-cut answer to that question, and I would suggest that it depends on other moves that the club may or may not make.



uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#293153) #
well, unfortunately B/R doesn't give SP/RP splits for era+ or war, as far as I can tell. I give what I can find. Happ has pitched both RP and SP, just like those guys.

is there any number which actually makes Happ look good? Happ's era+ is 90 this year, was 91 last year, 91 the year before, and 91 for his AL career. why would we pay money for this?

maybe people don't realize what a 4.37era actually means in this year's run environment? that his 4.37era this year is actually WORSE than the 4.56era he posted last year?
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#293154) #
Here's another way to look at it.  Just look at the contending teams this year.  Baltimore paid a whole chunk of cash to get 22 starts from Ubaldo Jimenez with an ERA+ of 78 (despite a great defence behind him).  Kansas City paid $8 million to Jeremy Guthrie to give them 28 starts with an ERA+ of 93 (despite a fabulous defence behind him).  The Angels have Tyler Skaggs and C.J. Wilson.  The Mariners have Erasmo Ramirez.  The Tigers have spent a gazillion dollars and sacrificed on the field to get a rotation of Verlander, Sanchez, Porcello and Price (with Smyly and Robbie Ray behind them).  The A's are the one club that was able to get 5 starters with an ERA+ of 100 without spending hugely.  It's not that easy to do and especially when you don't prioritize defence.

It's not the ERA+ that is the problem.  It is the IPs.  If Happ had been able to throw the innings that Morrow threw at the start of the year (an extra 6 starts), he would have been about as valuable as Drew Hutchison this year. 

BlueJayWay - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#293156) #
I think people are talking about the 'weak' ALE in comparison to itself. Normally the division is +40 or +50 at this point, instead of +11.
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#293157) #
Normally the division is +40 or +50 at this point, instead of +11.

It's also because the division is actually below .500 against the rest of the American League. It's the InterLeague games (AL East teams are 54-40 against the National League) that have it above .500 overall.
Magpie - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#293158) #
unless you adjust the bullpen ERA up about 10%.

Let's see - AL relievers have an ERA of 3.62. Ten percent would add 36 points, for an ERA of 3.98. And AL Starters have an ERA of.... 4.00. Not bad, Mikey!

I suspect the real difference between pitching in relief and pitching as a starter is a little more dramatic than the overall numbers suggest. The bullpen is always where you going to find the worst pitchers on a team. I think if the pitchers who had put up a 3.62 ERA in the pen took all those starters innings, the collective ERA would be considerably higher than 4.00
uglyone - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#293159) #
"It's not the ERA+ that is the problem. It is the IPs. If Happ had been able to throw the innings that Morrow threw at the start of the year (an extra 6 starts), he would have been about as valuable as Drew Hutchison this year. "

All due respect, mike, but it's both.

The fact that he is unable to post better than a 90era+, and is quite able to do worse than that, is an excellent reason not to give him $7m in its own right.

The fact that he can't pitch more than 150ip, and is quite abke to pitch less than that, is another, seperate, and equally valid reason not to give him $7m.

And the contracts you listed as comps are just more reasons NOT to pay Happ.


And even if he was worth #5 money, why would a team whose strength is cheap young sp depth spend limited FA bucks on that position?
TangledUpInBlue - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#293161) #
Uglyone, are you saying they shouldn't even pick up the option and then trade him? Do you think he'd have negative trade value at that price? I'll assume you don't think that, which makes picking up the option a pretty easy decision. As for the question of whether to trade him, as others have mentioned, that depends on what the rest of the rotation looks like come spring. A few other points: (i) Per FanGraphs, he's on pace to exceed $7M in value this year, which makes the $6.7M option look good, and that's without adjusting for inflation from this year to next; (ii) he seems to have potential to be even better, though granted, at his age, we maybe shouldn't expect that; and (iii) I'd say Happ is a big improvement on all those replacement level guys you mentioned on account of his consistency. You know what you're getting. How many #5/6 starters did we have to go through in recent years just to find one that might be half-decent? When you go through that kind of trial-and-error in looking for a #5, you're getting a lot of replacement-level, or even negative WAR, from guys before you find the one who starts adding a little value.
Mike Green - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#293168) #
Morrow throwing 98 out of the pen.  Interesting.
Thomas - Friday, September 05 2014 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#293211) #
At least we've now reached a point where it is perhaps reasonable to criticize Gibbons.
jerjapan - Saturday, September 06 2014 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#293238) #
Ugly, not to quibble again, but 6.5 million, minus the mlb minimum for a replacement level guy.  6 million is the cost to the team for the option (although some of the guys you mentioned - Rogers, Tallet, were making more than the minimum). 

I have a hard time believing we couldn't trade Happ for a real asset if he proves unnecessary. 




uglyone - Saturday, September 06 2014 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#293245) #
For the record, it's probably generous calling Happ a 150ip/90era+ guy.

He hasn't actually done that in six years now, and only once in his career, and hasn't done it yet this year, though he is on pace to.

The truth is that 150ip/90era+ is more his upside, not his likeliest performance:

2014: 125.2ip, 91era+
2013: 92.2ip, 90era+
2012: 144.2ip, 86era+
2011: 156.1ip, 71era+
2010: 87.1ip, 118era+

Maybe he gets there this year, maybe he doesn't.

So far his averages, before this year is complete:

Last 2yrs: 109ip, 91era+
Last 3yrs: 121ip, 89era+
Last 4yrs: 130ip, 84era+
Last 5yrs: 121ip, 89era+

Probably more accurate to call him a 125ip, 85-90era+ type guy.
uglyone - Saturday, September 06 2014 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#293246) #
"Uglyone, are you saying they shouldn't even pick up the option and then trade him? Do you think he'd have negative trade value at that price? I'll assume you don't think that, which makes picking up the option a pretty easy decision. "

Yeah, i'm not sure any team would take him off of waivers with that pricetag, when so many pitchers with similar performance are available in waivers all the time.

Look at a guy like Chris Capuano, for example. Signed for one year $2.2m this offseason. Was waived and nobody picked him up, and boston had to eat that $2.2m to release him. His track record is better than Happ's.
Alex Obal - Saturday, September 06 2014 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#293247) #
I think it's the potential they see in Happ that makes them prefer him to other veteran SPs. He's so tall and he has such long arms and he throws so hard and his fastball really gets on you. Just imagine.

I actually think if he got to start 20+ games in California he'd do pretty well. Toronto is a rough neighborhood for lefty flyball pitchers who pitch away from contact.
Alex Obal - Saturday, September 06 2014 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#293249) #
On deeper contemplation Happ has a 3.54 lifetime ERA at the Dome in 150 innings, with 22.3% K, 7.6% BB, 3.0% HR. That's way better than I would have guessed (even if SSS), and he's also taken a few beatings in pitchers' parks. He is tall, he contains multitudes.
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