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The Pale Hose are coming to town.

Does anyone still call them "The Pale Hose?" Did anyone ever?

The White Sox are scuffling along at 29-36, which is the second worst record in the AL. You will notice that they've allowed just 2 more runs than they've scored, which suggests they might actually be just a little bit better than their record suggests. They haven't done great in close games (5-7 in one-run games) and they did win a couple of blowouts by exceedingly hefty margins: 16-1, 12-1, 11-2.  The Sox are probably pretty close to being a league average team, and if Jose Quintana ever figures out what's wrong they might even be a little bit better than that.

The Jays will see Quintana in tonight's opener, matched up with Joe (Please) Biagini. Over the weekend, the Sox will trot out some familiar names wearing new duds: old Met Mike Pelfrey opposes Marcus Stroman on Saturday and the Unsinkable James Shields is supposed to come off the DL to face J.A. Happ on Sunday.

Despite the 2-5 mark, this is easily the best Pelfrey has looked since 2010. Granted, Pelfrey has looked so absolutely awful every year since then that his continued employment in the major leagues always seemed somewhat of a mystery. It's not exactly a high bar to clear. Shields spent nine full seasons being about as durable and dependable a starting pitcher as you could imagine before his disastrous 2016 campaign. This year, he turned in three strong starts in April and then went on the DL for two months with a lat strain.

The White Sox offense is led by Jose Abreu, who you probably know about, and three 26 year old hitters who've never accomplished anything whatsoever in the major leagues before these past two months. Right fielder Avisail Garcia sports a nifty .343/.381/.558 slash line, with 10 HR and 48 RBI. Where did that come from? This is his third season as a regular, and until now he's hit rather like Kevin Pillar if you take away the speed and turn half of Pillar's doubles into singles. And centre fielder Leury Garcia, a little guy who runs pretty fast but not very effectively, had hit .188/.225/.237 in his first looks at AL pitching, 155 games scattered over four seasons. This year? .298/.345/.459. Go figure. Then there's DH Matt Davidson, who leads the team with 14 HR. He was stuck for three years at AAA Charlotte, and with good cause. While he did hit a few dingers, he also batted .199 and .203 in his first two full season cracks at AAA before figuring out a few things in 2016.

The White Sox, of course, have the dubious distinction of being the American League franchise that played the most consecutive seasons without winning a championship. Entire generations of fans were born, lived, got old and died during the 88 years that passed between their titles in 1917 and 2005. Only the Cubs subjected their fans to more seasons without a championship.

It's a mark that's going to stand for a while. Cleveland has the longest active streak of no-titles, and theirs only goes back to 1948. At 69 years and counting, it's the third longest such streak in AL history, trailing the Sox White and Red. The only other AL teams ever to manage streaks in excess of 60 years both packed up and left town along the way (St.Louis-Baltimore and Washington-Minnesota)  and can you blame them?

As you've probably noticed, the Jays have had a losing record ever since this season began. Five times they've had an opportunity to pull even at .500, and five times they've gone out and lost (at 0-1, 1-2, 26-27, 28-29, and 31-32.) So tonight could be the night! Sixth time's the charm?

It's been frustrating and in this year of frustration we always cast our thoughts back to the 1989 team. Those of us who were there also remember an epic struggle, full of setbacks, as that group clawed their way back toward the break-even point. They didn't get there to stay until the middle of August - and they still won 89 games and the division title.

As you probably know, the 1989 Jays dug themselves an even deeper hole than this year's crew. Unlike this year, it wasn't the first two weeks of the season that were the problem, as they went 6-6 out of the gate. No, it was losing 18 of 24 over the next month that dropped them deep under water. Still, from that horrendous 12-24 mark on May 14, it took them just over a month to get back to .500 at 36-36. Huzzah? No. They instantly lost four in a row, which eventually became 9 of 11, falling all they way back to 38-45. The long march began again. In late July Dave Stieb beat Nolan Ryan and they were back at .500 (50-50, in fact.) Naturally, they lost the next day. They made it back to .500, and lost again. Twice. On 8 August, Mauro Gozzo's ML debut got them above .500 for the first time since April. Naturally, they lost 3 of their next 4. Finally, In mid-August, they went into Fenway at 58-59: Gozzo beat Boddicker to even the season log. Stieb beat Smithson to get them above .500, and David Wells completed the sweep. Those were the first 3 victories of a 31-14 closing kick. This year's team is probably going to have to get that kind of hot at some point.

Steve Pearce is supposed to be returning to the lineup tonight, which probably means Dwight Smith shuffling back to Buffalo, unless they surprise us all and DFA Chris Coghlan or reduce the size of the bullpen.



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China fan - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#343711) #
"...which probably means Dwight Smith shuffling back to Buffalo, unless they surprise us all and DFA Chris Coghlan or reduce the size of the bullpen...."

Those were pretty good guesses, and they would have seemed to cover the entire waterfront of possible scenarios.   Instead the Jays chose another scenario:  they made use of the phantom DL for Coghlan, which they also did for JP Howell a couple of weeks ago. 

I have the impression that the Jays didn't use the phantom DL very much at all during the Anthopoulos era (but maybe my memory is unreliable).  In any event, it seems very consistent with the Shapiro/Atkins era to hoard players who should probably be DFA'd.  They seem like the kind of executives who prefer to conserve every asset for as long as possible.  That's perhaps a good strategy, but it also smacks of excessive caution, rather than the bold gambles of the AA era.  Of course I am making sweeping generalizations here, and I'm sure people will find many flaws in those generalizations.
China fan - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#343712) #
Wow, Gibby is taking no prisoners as he crushes the idle speculation that Pearce might play a little at 2B.  His exact words just now:  "Pearce ain't playing second base. You will not see him there. Don't waste your breath, or mine."
Mike Green - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#343713) #
Gibbons says that Smith is now the 4th OFer.  He is the one who will back-up Pillar.  Makes sense.  They do need to give Bautista some time off too.  If Smith gets 3 starts a week against RHP, that wouldn't be bad. 
China fan - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#343714) #
Yes, a bunch of us were calling for Smith to be kept on the roster, rather than Coghlan.   Glad to see that they are doing it.  Now let's hope Smith can seize the opportunity and run with it.  It's an opportunity that most of us (and him) would probably not have predicted at the beginning of the season, but he has worked hard and been very productive in Buffalo this year, and he seems to deserve the chance. 
92-93 - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#343718) #
Tepera, Barnes, and Grilli have each pitched once since June 7th, but here the Jays are with a stabilized rotation, a horrible bench, and an 8 man bullpen. The terrible roster management continues.
Nigel - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#343721) #
Unfortunately, 3 opposition runs is usually too big a hill for this offence. The Jays' record when the opponent scored 3 or more runs is 10-31. Maybe Quintana will be different.
SK in NJ - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#343722) #
Even though I think there's no chance the mutual option on Bautista's deal is picked up (especially by the Jays), there is a vesting option for 2019 based on games played. I don't think Jose wants to sit for that reason, and Gibbons seems like the type of manager who would try to help a player out in cases like this. Plus they can't use DH as a resting spot anymore because Smoak is one of the team's best hitters now, and Morales can't play anywhere else. So it's either Bautista in RF or on the bench.

I'm guessing when they signed Morales they were anticipating moving on from Jose, but they both kind of fell into each other because of lack of other options. Not looking forward to watching Jose play defense all year, but it looks unavoidable.
SK in NJ - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#343723) #
Wow, I blinked and it's 7-0 White Sox in the 2nd inning. Yikes.

Rest day for Osuna and Smith.
greenfrog - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#343724) #
here the Jays are with a stabilized rotation

You were saying?
Nigel - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#343725) #
Sounds like Travis is done for the year.
Petey Baseball - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#343726) #
I like Morales's swing.
Chuck - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#343727) #
Joe, Be a Genie. Sorry, not tonight.
Magpie - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#343728) #
Three hits for Hansen. Pearce and Barney haven't had a plate appearance.

"Not my night?"
92-93 - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#343729) #
I was saying the Jays' rotation had stabilized, which it did. A bad start from Biagini doesn't change that fact. A properly constructed 7 man bullpen with 2 days off this week is PLENTY to get through this type of game, and you shouldn't even need to use your AAA affiliate that's down the road for tomorrow.
92-93 - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#343731) #
How do you wave a runner from 2B home down 11-2 on a single to LF? Will Luis Rivera ever be held accountable for his terrible coaching decisions?
Magpie - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#343732) #
That one was on Leiper. Rivera's not with the team this weekend.
92-93 - Friday, June 16 2017 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#343734) #
That was last series. Rivera is back with the team this weekend.

Your bullpen is definitely not properly constructed when the 7th and 8th arms can't give you more than an inning down 9 runs in the first game of a series.
cybercavalier - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#343735) #
Coghlan

Maile is hitting... Well... we know we need more hitters who get on base. Off the top of head is 1B/LF/RF/C John Jaso from the Pirates. Could he solve
1) a better hitting catcher
2) an LHB catcher to complement Martin
3) in one body, he can play C/1B/LF/RF. Possibly 3B too. Versatility ensured
4) Given his versatility and his LHB, can Barney and Coghlan packaged in a trade? On MLB.com Pirates' depth chart, 2B Adam Frazier is listed as the top LF choice. Coghlan can spare more PA there as part of a platoon when Sterling Marte is serving his suspension.
5) age 33 so his body can still hold for upcoming seasons.
cybercavalier - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#343736) #
I don't think the Jays can carry the offensive black hole of a Barney/Goins 2b for long especially with guys like Tulo scuffling. You'd think if they were going to go with Leblijian (sp?) he'd be with the team by now. They might be rolling with Barney and Goins for a while. Meanwhile, Brett Lawrie is looking for a job...

The Padres is using LF Allen Cordoba who never played above rookie league. Given their injury woes, can we trade either a Barney or Coghlan for the slumping Ryan Schimpf. The Padres sent Schimpf to Triple-A while Barney can help the Padres right away. Then Elmore is up for his getting on-base ability. In other words, do we prefer rolling Barney's than Schimpf's? If the dice rolls good this time, both Elmore and Schimpf can help a bit.

For veterans on the bench, does it matter that they hit not well as expected in Triple-A? In other words, their experiences guide them to perform well in substitution situations.
China fan - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 04:44 AM EDT (#343737) #
"....Your bullpen is definitely not properly constructed when the 7th and 8th arms can't give you more than an inning down 9 runs in the first game of a series..."

Leone, who has been bouncing back and forth between Buffalo and Toronto all season (optioned three times), is the 7th arm in the bullpen.  And he went 3 innings last night.   As for the 8th arm, Beliveau: he went 2 innings in his previous start and threw 28 pitches last night, so it's not the roster's fault if he was only capable of getting 3 outs last night.  He also threw 32 innings in 17 appearances in the minors this year, so he clearly has a multi-inning role.

I admire the persistence of your campaign against the 8-man pen, and I have agreed with your points on occasion, but your argument would be stronger if you acknowledged the occasions when the 8-man pen has value.  Last night was clearly an example of the benefits of the 8-man pen.  Without it, the Jays would have been forced to use Smith or Osuna.  There is definite value in saving those guys for higher-leverage use.  Last night was also yet another example of a game when an extra bench hitter would have been useless.  Pinch-hitters and pinch-runners had no value last night.

Frankly I've seen very few games where an expanded bench would help the Jays.  Moreover, they don't have anyone in the system who would thrive in a pinch-hitting role.  For that, you need a veteran, not a prospect.  But very few veterans can be optioned to the minors, which means that you're unnecessarily restricting the roster, because you'd have to commit to the pinch-hitter for the entire season. And good pinch-hitting veterans aren't easy to find anyway.  The Jays, I'm sure, have been scouring the waiver wire for good outfielders and utility guys this year, but they've failed to find anyone better than Chris Coghlan, who has very little value as a pinch-hitter.  Good-hitting veterans are just not easily available.  As for the prospects:  they need to play every day, or most days, which means they should normally stay in the minors, with rare exceptions such as Dwight Smith, who is in Toronto now because the Jays don't have anyone else who can be a back-up centre-fielder.
cybercavalier - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#343740) #
Good-hitting veterans are just not easily available...

How about each regular season, a bench spot and a 25 men roster spot is saved for cycling a veteran player who excels abnormally for one season? Now for the this season the Jays bring up a veteran bat from the minors. As the he becomes exposed, he is demoted for another veteran bat. As I highlighted above, can AAAA labeled veterans available during a season? In other words, may the Linus's Law -- given enough [veterans], all holes are shallow -- be applicable?
92-93 - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#343746) #
You apparently missed the entire point, because the 8 man bullpen had zero value yesterday. Two of the Jays relievers didn't pitch, and two of them (Barnes and Tepera) could have easily gone further. Had the Jays really needed a new arm for today (unlikely), it's a very easy call to the Bisons to bring back Beliveau or whomever. Who knows, maybe if Leblebijian was starting at 2B yesterday he would've made the first play of the game for Biagini and things look completely different. Barney has been useless all season, he isn't even playing good defense at 2B or 3B.

It's semantical to suggest Leone is the 7th arm just because he has been optioned down; he is very clearly ahead of Grilli in the pecking order right now. Even if you want to call him the 7th RP that further bolsters my point that the construction of the bullpen is a poor one - your 7th RP shouldn't be a higher leverage guy than your 6th arm that is probably being kept around because the team was stupid enough to allow a promotional day for a mediocre setup man.

I guess I'm going to have to start posting after every game about the spot where a proper bench would've dictated a different move, because it happens all the time. Seems like people are way too used to and accepting of Barney/Goins getting PAs late in tight games.

The Rays got Trevor Plouffe today. At least they're making an attempt to improve their bench. It matters.
China fan - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#343749) #
If you really think there is "zero value" in conserving your best relievers and not using them in a blow-out, I don't know what to say.  Because of the 8-man pen, the Jays were able to conserve Smith and Osuna -- and they were able to limit the pitch count of Tepera and Barnes, making both them available again today.  Without the 8th reliever, they would have had a poor choice:  giving a 2nd inning to Tepera or Barnes (thus probably rendering them unavailable today) or using Smith or Osuna in the late innings (making them less fresh for today's game). 

Your secondary argument was that the 8th reliever (Beliveau) "should have" been able to pitch multiple innings last night.  That's like saying Biagini "should have" been able to pitch more than one inning last night.   Of course, in an ideal world, your worst relievers will be able to pitch multiple innings, and in an ideal world the starter would go more than an inning.  Baseball is not the ideal world.  Crap happens, and the team has to be prepared for the worst-case scenarios.  When the starter cannot go past the 1st inning, it's pretty clear that the 8-man pen is useful.

Your third argument is that the Jays could have easily shuffled Beliveau back and forth from Buffalo.  That's incorrect, because Beliveau is out of options.

Your fourth argument is that Leblebijian is a better defender than Barney.  This is very dubious.  Leb is a prospect with a reputation as an average defender, and he's always been a low-rated prospect until he suddenly began hitting in the past month or two, while Barney is a former Gold Glover who is on the roster specifically because of his defensive skills. In any event, it's completely irrelevant to the 8-man bullpen issue.  If the Jays agreed with your argument that Leb is a better defender than Barney, they could easily DFA Barney and promote Leb.  That's nothing to do with the bullpen -- it's purely a question of whether Leb is a superior 2B to Barney. 

Your fifth argument is that Leblebijian could have made the first play of the game -- the infield hit by the White Sox lead-off hitter Hanson.  That's actually a ridiculous statement.  I looked at several replays of that play.  Nobody could have thrown out the speedy Hanson on that play, because the ball took a huge bounce near the mound.  Barney played it perfectly, but it was impossible to beat Hanson because of the big bounce that the ball took.  If it had taken a normal bounce, Barney could have perhaps bare-handed the ball and would have had a theoretical chance to beat Hanson, but even then it would have been unlikely.  In the event, he didn't come close to beating Hanson, although he fielded it cleanly, transferred the ball quickly from the glove to his throwing hand, and made a good throw.  Leblebijian would have done no better, and probably worse.

Nigel - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#343750) #
92-93 I agree with you on the 8 man bullpen but as the last several years have demonstrated Gibbons clearly has a desire for a pen that size. It's just one of those things that you have to accept if you accept Gibbons as the manager. I don't get it but it is what it is.
92-93 - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#343751) #
1. The Jays were able to conserve Smith and Osuna because that's what managers do in 9 run games - they stay away from their better relievers. It should have absolutely nothing to do with having 8 relievers, and if it does you have the wrong set of relievers (or manager). The Yankees and Orioles both had 6 man bullpens yesterday after playing on Thursday while the Jays had 2 off days in a span of 4 days and apparently needed 8 RP.

2. There was no reason to remove Beliveau from yesterday's game. Perhaps if Gibbons had a normal sized bullpen he wouldn't have taken out his 8th RP after 1 inning down 9 runs. If Beliveau can't throw a 2nd inning in that situation after 29 pitches he shouldn't be your 8th reliever.

3. I said nothing about shuffling Beliveau specifically, only that they could've called up an RP from Buffalo if necessary for today's game. It wouldn't have been necessary with a proper bullpen construction.

4/5. Barney did not play that ball perfectly. Twice in yesterday's game Darwin's only chance to retire the hitter was to barehand the ball, and twice he tried to make the play with his glove and throw the runner out when he had no shot despite a very smooth transfer. An infielder with a better internal clock recognizes the play that needs to be made and attempts it. A speculative comment about Leblebijian maybe making a play that Barney didn't make obviously isn't a suggestion that one is a better defender than the other.
jerjapan - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#343752) #
I'm a fan of the 7 man pen myself, but not blanket statements like 'zero value'.   Lots of teams run with an 8 man pen at times, and they aren't run by idiots.  I think the days of the bumbling FO are pretty much over.   Quite clearly Gibby and the org want to be gentle with the arms of their pitchers, and I can respect that.

It's the Morales contract that shortens the pen most problematically, IMO.  I'd like a super utility guy  - I've long pined for Zobrist - and since both Barney and Goins are struggling, and offer basically the same skill set, I'm ready to move on from one of them.  J-Leb could be that guy, and I'd disagree with China that he's only been a prospect for the last month or two - he's been on my radar for a year easily, primarily because of his versatility.  With this year's offensive breakout, he could be the Zobrist we need.  The 'average defender' tag is debatable - he gets praised regularly by managers and teammates for his glove.  Defensive stats are troublesome at best, far more so for under the radar minor leaguers.  That said, I trust Barney's gold glove more - defense can decline fast, but it takes a while I think to make any strong conclusions.  This could just be an of year. 

I do get the org's reluctance to move on from Barney or Goins though, from a team POV - they appear to be good guys, and have played a key role with the resurgent Jays team.  Chemistry is subjective, but it does have value. 



92-93 - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#343753) #
I really love watching Marcus Stroman pitch.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#343754) #
Me, too.  He's a fine fielder also.  
Four Seamer - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#343756) #
Ryan Goins grounding into an inning ending double play is like a mic drop punctuating 92-93's fulminations on the 8 man pen.
Nigel - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#343757) #
162 game seasons always find ways to highlight the folly of poor roster construction
Thomas - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#343758) #
I've made my thoughts on the 8-man bullpen multiple times before, so I'm not going to go back into that debate.

However, on 92-93's last point, i was surprised to see Barney field the ball twice with his glove in situations where it seemed immediately apparent that, in order to have any chance at getting the runner, he would have to barehand the ball. I definitely don't think it's accurate to say Barney played either of those balls perfectly.
Nigel - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#343759) #
Of course, the bench/bullpen issue is moot until the offence can regularly score 3 regularly runs a game, which, in turn, requires more OBP
SK in NJ - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#343760) #
With Pearce on the bench, I'm not sure why Goins was hitting in that spot with two runners on. I know they didn't want Pearce to play a day game after a night game due to just coming back from injury, but one at bat and then being replaced by Barney doesn't sound all that risky. The Jays really miss Travis in the lineup. Goins is a negative player, even moreso now that is defense isn't even good anymore. Upton missing the entire season with an injury would have been more valuable to this team.

That 2nd WC looks so attainable, but if the Jays are still flirting with .500 a month from now, then the FO really needs to consider a Cashman 2016 style retool at the deadline.
greenfrog - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#343761) #
Cashman's rebuilding of the Yankees started well before 2016.
Mike Green - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#343762) #
It's nice to have some speed in the outfield.  Dwight Smith Jr. covers significant ground, and looks to me like he'll be able to hold his own against RHP at least. Luke Maile continues to impress me defensively as well. 

I don't know if Tulo's calf injury is still bugging him, but he's lost quickness on the ball hit to his left (up the middle).  There were two today, and I was quite surprised that he just waved at the second one.  Both UZR and DRS have him as a (slightly) below-average fielder for the first time since his rookie season- I don't think that it's a sample size fluke.
scottt - Saturday, June 17 2017 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#343763) #
At the end of the day, it's one of those rare game they could have won had they started Barney at 3B instead of Donaldson.

I will confess that I don't like those powder blue hats. I hope they're in red tomorrow.

SK in NJ - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#343767) #
"Cashman's rebuilding of the Yankees started well before 2016."


I said the Jays should emulate the 2016 retooling of the Yankees if the season does not improve (not mentioning anything the Yankees did prior to 2016), but I would disagree with the assertion that Cashman was rebuilding before 2016. The team was old and saddled with expensive bloated unmovable contracts. He couldn't rebuild even if he wanted to. The Steinbrenner's want to go close to or under the luxury tax as well so he wasn't able to double down like he did in the past either. The last few years for the Yankees was basically a bunch of years waiting for the expensive contracts to either expire or finally become tradeable as they got closer to the end of the deals, and in that time they were able to develop their prospects in the minors and add to the big league roster in trades without sacrificing the prospect base. Once Sanchez was ready, they traded McCann. Once Judge was ready, they traded Beltran. Tex retired to make room for Bird. When Jeter retired, they traded for Didi. And so on. The trade deadline of 2016 was the first time Cashman used his veterans to get more prospect capital (though trading Miller was more about getting value out of a huge asset).

It's actually what we might see with the Jays. A couple of .500-ish finishes for a couple of years waiting for Tulo/Martin to expire while giving the system time to develop their replacements. The one issue will be Donaldson, as if he leaves after 2018 then they might be forced into a rebuild. I don't see the Jays best prospects (Vlad, Bo, etc) becoming big league regulars by 2019 (possible but it would be asking a lot). If Shapiro can avoid a hard rebuild and transition into the team's next young core seamlessly (even if it means .500 or sub-.500 finishes until they get there), then I'm sure they'll be OK with that.

Obviously if they are holding down the 2nd WC spot by the end of July this summer, then it makes more sense to improve the big league team, but if what we have seen in June continues (hovering around .500), and they are still behind multiple teams for that spot, then they'll have to pivot.
PeterG - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#343768) #
I would prefer that the Donaldson situation is settled in the off season and not hanging over us most or all of next season. I would either have him signed to an extension by the Winter Meetings or trade him then if an extension does not appear likely. He might bring a better return at the July deadline but I can only see that happening if there is a complete collapse between now and then.
PeterG - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#343770) #
Sparkman starting for Bisons today against a good Scranton/WB squad. Jays are certainly taking advantage of his rehab to get a good look.
92-93 - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#343771) #
Goins was hitting for himself in the 7th inning of a 3-2 game with 2 runners on because of the 8 man bullpen. Gibby already said he doesn't want to discuss Pearce at 2B, which means he would've had to burn 2 players with the move because Barney would've come out for defense. Furthermore, with only 1 out Gibby was probably thinking that no matter what he's going to PH Martin for Maile, and had he gone Pearce for Goins that would've left him with no bench whatsoever from the 8th inning on.

Yesterday was a perfect example of why it's far more important to have options in tight games than it is worrying about who will pitch the innings in a 9 run game or how you'll manage the roster after one of them.
bpoz - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#343772) #
We used to be involved in a lot more blowout games as the winner in 2015 and 2016. This year we are at maybe .500. At least we are winning more close games.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#343773) #
I would prefer that the Donaldson situation is settled in the off season and not hanging over us most or all of next season. I would either have him signed to an extension by the Winter Meetings or trade him then if an extension does not appear likely. He might bring a better return at the July deadline but I can only see that happening if there is a complete collapse between now and then.

Agreed.
Nigel - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#343774) #
A healthy Happ would make a valuable trade deadline chip
jerjapan - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#343775) #
92-93, I was thinking about your comments during that very Goins AB.  The FO seems to want to stick with the vets - their reluctance to give Smith a shot, their reluctance to promote J-Leb this year and Barnes last year .  It will be interesting to see if they are slow to promote the top prospects as well once they appear to be ready, or if they are just slow with the lower profile org type players. 

A nice interview with Leb at Blue Bird Banter.  He credits a more considered approach to his batting two seasons back for his offensive improvements, and cites roving hitting instructor Carlos Delgado for his help. 

https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017/6/15/15797952/talking-jason-leblebijian

Chuck - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#343779) #
"The average major leaguer is hitting .255 with 2 outs and men in scoring position. Abreu is hitting .320. That's discipline."

So uttered Mr. Martinez, gleaning insight from Abreu's 8 hits in 25 at-bats in these situations, prior to today's game. Had two of those hits found a glove, and were the disciplined Abreu hitting just .240, what would the insight be? Teams respect him as a run producer and pitch him extra tough in those situations?

Mr. Martinez, meet Mr. Monroe.

scottt - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#343780) #
I would prefer that the Donaldson situation is settled in the off season and not hanging over us most or all of next season.

Then you'll have the Sanchez/Stroman situation hanging over you. A roster is never setup.
Machado is in the same situation as Donaldson. That's a buyer's market.
The best outcome is Donaldson putting up MVP number for the Blue Jays.
greenfrog - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#343783) #
SK, Cashman has been quietly overhauling the Yankees for several years. In addition to rebuilding the farm system, he has traded for young players like Hicks, Castro and Gregorius (all three were acquired in 2014 and 2015).

He has also refrained from trading away prospects to upgrade at various junctures. For example, he could have acquired Price in 2015 for a package that included Severino, but chose to take the long view instead.

The 2016 moves were really the icing on a cake that has been baking for several years now.
PeterG - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#343784) #
Goins is now 4th in rbi for the Jays.
hypobole - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#343788) #
Goins is 4th (or 5th counting Travis) because he has the 2nd best average - .345 - with RISP.

Which begs the question - Would Gibby have PH for him yesterday even if there was another bench bat, since he was facing a RHP?
uglyone - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#343792) #
yanks sure are getting a lot of praise for an obviously unsustainable start.
92-93 - Sunday, June 18 2017 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#343793) #
Depends who the bench bat was; if he had a Navarro or his old friend Stairsy around, Goinsy would've been substituted out.

It'll be interesting to see which SP(s) the Yankees acquire this summer. Doubt they can make it through riding Severino and Montgomery the rest of the way.
hypobole - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#343794) #
Dioner pinch hit 18 times total in 15 & 16. Those 18 PA's netted 1 single and 3 BB's. Stairs is 49 years old.

King Ryan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:39 AM EDT (#343795) #
Hard not to wonder how long Aaron judge can maintain a 430 BABIP. I mean, Jesus.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#343796) #
greenfrog, I agree with that (trading for young players). I thought you meant they were trading off veterans or long-term contracts to get younger (rebuilding), when it only really happened in 2016. Cashman definitely made some good moves for Didi, Hicks, and Castro, primarily because it did not involve trading any top prospects.

Living in that area, I always heard the frustration from Yankees fans about the lack of real direction (they were no longer "going for it", nor were they rebuilding), and it strikes me as being pretty similar to the Jays right now. As I said before, that's the template I want the Jays to follow. I know being stuck in .500 hell can be frustrating, but Rogers is not going to green-light a full rebuild as much as it might make sense, so being able to be around .500 for a few years, maybe even falling into a WC spot every now and then, until the next crop of talent is ready (Vlad, Bo, etc) is a reasonable expectation both financially for ownership and for the team from a competitive standpoint. The main stumbling point to that will be what happens with Donaldson. If he leaves after 2018, then they might be forced into a rebuild depending on how they replace him.
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#343797) #
The Blue Jays have played 68 games and Jose Bautista has been in all of them.  It would have been an appropriate kindness to give him Father's Day off, but maybe a day off in Texas to recharge his batteries would be even better.  Dwight Smith Jr. played with Bibens-Dirkx in New Hampshire in 2015, and might have a good read on him. 
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#343798) #
John Lott has an excellent article on Justin Smoak's mechanical and mind-set adjustments  in today's Athletic.  It is behind a subscriber wall- if you have a few shekels, I'd highly recommend it. 
uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#343799) #
"Hard not to wonder how long Aaron judge can maintain a 430 BABIP. I mean, Jesus."

hey, michael Saunders carried a .400babip all they way to the allstar break last year.
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#343800) #
Judge's batted-ball profile is extraordinary.  He's hit 49% of his balls in play hard and only 12% soft.  37% of his balls in play have been in the air- of those 41% have left the yard and only 2% have been popped up.  25% of his balls in play have been lined and 38% are gound balls.  Babe Ruth had a BABIP of .423 in 1923; I doubt that Ruth hit the ball harder than Judge has so far in 2017. 

There is good reason to doubt Judge's ability to sustain this, because of his history.  But, he hasn't been lucky at all, as far as I can tell.  When you hit the ball harder than anybody with a good level swing, and you have the advantage of the short porch in Yankee Stadium to catch some of your opposite field flies, you're going to do well in the BABIP department. 
BlueJayWay - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#343801) #
Judge's home babip this year is .491. Holy cripes.
eudaimon - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#343802) #
Judge is definitely getting a bit lucky, mainly because his K-rate is almost 30%. That's the tenth highest in MLB, and most of the other players in the top-30 of K% have batting averages between 220-280. A BABIP of .431 is obviously unsustainable, no matter how hard you hit the ball. I'd be surprised if he didn't come back down to earth in the second half, like Saunders last year (though not nearly as badly).
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#343803) #
Judge's BABIP by hit trajectory: .069 for fly-balls (20 points lower than league average!); .310 for ground balls (64 points higher than league average); .854 on line drives (240 points higher than league average).  Maybe he's getting a little lucky with his line drives.  They're playing him deep (understandably) so floaters are falling in and he hasn't hit too many of those. For what it's worth, Giancarlo Stanton's career BABIP on line drives is .748; you wouldn't expect Judge's to be much higher than Stanton's.  

Incidentally, he's had few infield hits (3 on the season)- the ground balls are making it through and when you hit the ball as hard as he does, it's not surprising that he should have a BABIP of .310 on ground balls. 

If the worst you can say about a hitter is that he's getting lucky with his hard-hit line drives in that he hasn't hit too many at-'em balls, it aint much. 

Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#343804) #
Judge (like Donaldson) hits to center and right so you don't get any benefit from shifting him.  That was an issue for Saunders. 
China fan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#343805) #
I've just been reviewing the latest MLB stats on bullpen use and bullpen performance.  The Jays bullpen has the 9th most innings in baseball (243.1 innings) yet it also has the 7th lowest xFIP in the majors (3.87) and the 5th highest fWAR (3.5). 

That's clear testimony to the value of the 8-man bullpen and the smart managing decisions by Gibbons.  Because the starting rotation has had so many problems this season, the bullpen has been heavily taxed.  Yet because the burden hasn't fallen on just 7 guys, the relievers have been able to share the workload among a larger number of relievers, and that's helped the bullpen to perform very strongly this year.  Kudos to the team's decision-makers.

uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#343806) #
well, no, it's not a testament to the 8 man pen (which 92-93 is 100% right on imo) but the performance in the pen this year is once again a testament to gibbons' ability to juggle a whole bunch of uncertain parts back there....and also a testament to shapkins for building a bullpen the right way (or at least resisting the urge to spend big money on non-elite RP when we had plenty of good quality arms in house and demotable already).
uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#343807) #
and come on guys - no matter what the batted ball analysis, Judge is not sustaining anything remotely close to a .430 babip for much longer. even if he's the best babip guy of all time and beats ty cobb's .378 that's still over a 50pt babip drop which is over a 100pt ops drop ceteris paribus.

and of course there's 3 guys with over .400 babip so far this year and comparing any of them to ty cobb at this point might be a wee bit of a stretch.
uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#343808) #
"Babe Ruth had a BABIP of .423 in 1923; I doubt that Ruth hit the ball harder than Judge has so far in 2017. "

might have something to do with him playing in parks twice as big as today's fields.
uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#343809) #
Fowler: 262pa, 119wrc+, 1.5war, 3.7war/650
En'cion: 277pa, 132wrc+, 1.0war, 2.4war/650
Morales: 264pa, 106wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war/650

File under: Unsurprising Developments
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#343810) #
I don't think Judge's BABIP at the end of the year will be over .400.  I also don't think that 49% of his balls in play will be hard hit.  He has been uncommonly hot for a long time.  ZIPS has his BABIP for the rest of the year at .331; Steamer has him at .325.  If either of those numbers come true, his BABIP for the year will be under .380.  I'll take the over on that.
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#343811) #
Fowler's numbers are reliant on the defensive evaluation- his UZR in centerfield this year is tolerable; his DRS is execrable.  In the result, his bWAR is a none-too-great 0.6. 

It would have been nice to have Fowler here to play right-field. 

PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#343812) #
Comparing Morales to EE is unfair as he is less than half the cost in terms of total contract. Even just going on this year's salaries, Morales is much more cost effective.

The real trade off is EE for Morales, Pearce, Gurriel, Pearson. That is quite lopsided in favour of the Jays I would say.

On the other topic being discussed, I am in favour of the 8 man pen as the roster is presently constructed. If Sparkman is added, as I expect, I imagine it will remain an 8 man pen for the remainder of the season.
uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#343813) #
yeah definitely as a corner OF.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:29 PM EDT (#343815) #
Bautista making $18.5M, playing everyday (literally) in RF, and being a below average offensive player is far more troubling than Morales, IMO. Kendrys is what he is. Maybe his hard hit rate starts to manifest into better numbers at some point, but he was signed to a reasonable AAV (too many years). Right now, Jose is a bigger issue. He needed to be the 120-130 wRC+ type bat he was projected to be in order for this team to be in good shape, and aside from May (which was excellent), it hasn't been pretty.
Hodgie - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#343817) #
"Comparing Morales to EE is unfair as he is less than half the cost in terms of total contract. Even just going on this year's salaries, Morales is much more cost effective."

I am not sure that someone providing replacement level production can be classified as cost effective.

uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#343818) #
Jose is not a bigger issue - he's on a one year deal and despite similar current numbers still projects much better the rest of the year. and UZR actually has him as a positive defensive player in RF this year.

greenfrog - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#343819) #
The Jays could have spent $375m or so on Price, Encarnacion, and Fowler, and their winning percentage in 2017 still wouldn't be much more than .500. Fowler is a good player; the question is whether it would have been worth spending $90m over five years for him. The team is getting close to equivalent production from Carrera this year.
PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#343820) #
"I am not sure that someone providing replacement level production can be classified as cost effective."

WAR is basically irrelevant when it comes to a DH. This has been discussed previously. Without the many clutch hits the Jays have had from Morales, I would contend that team would be buried in last place overall (in AL).

uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#343821) #
yeah, replace morales with any one of those guys and we're a better team.

but who cares about better.
uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#343822) #
"WAR is basically irrelevant when it comes to a DH. This has been discussed previously"

this has been claimed previously, you mean.
SK in NJ - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#343825) #
Fowler got 5/90, a full NTC, and got to stay at his natural position (CF). The Jays would have had to trump that offer and Fowler would have had to agree to move to a different position. It was a nice thought, but in hindsight had very little chance of happening. No way the Jays were going to beat the Cardinals offer, and they shouldn't have, while Fowler had no reason to go to a team offering less and forcing him to play a different position that he may not be comfortable with.

As far as Bautista, his defense is definitely better this year than last, but he is still a negative defensive player in right (-8 DRS) and offensively he has been below average overall. The issue with him vs. Morales is that Morales is doing what projections had him doing, more or less (the FO was likely expecting a lot more). I believe projections had Jose at a 3 WAR and 130 wRC+. From an expectation standpoint, the Jays needed Bautista to be a lot better. Still time for both bats to get better, though.
China fan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#343826) #
"....the performance in the pen this year is once again a testament to gibbons' ability to juggle a whole bunch of uncertain parts back there...."

Yes.  And most of the time, he has been able to juggle 8 relievers, which he obviously prefers, and which helps him to juggle the relievers effectively and avoid excessively taxing his best relievers.
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#343827) #
Bautista's L/R splits are weird the last couple of years.  He's had a particular problem hitting lefties both years but worse this one. He has struck out in 31% of his PAs this year, and has put up a .107/.254/.161 line.  His line against RHPs has been only a little worse than his career norms.  
hypobole - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#343828) #
UZR actually has him as a positive defensive player in RF this year.

As opposed to DRS which has Jose at -8 run in RF.

uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#343829) #
Updated 2yr Bullpen Stats.

1.Osuna (22): 101.0ip, 62era-, 2.0awar/65ip
2.Barnes (27): 43.2ip, 66era-, 1.3awar/65ip
3.Biagini (27): 86.1ip, 73era-, 1.2awar/65ip
4.Tepera (29): 55.0ip, 64era-, 1.1awar/65ip
5.Smith (33): 83.2ip, 83era-, 0.7awar/65ip
6.Loup (29): 39.1ip, 84era-, 0.3awar/65ip
7.Leone (25): 57.2ip, 110era-, 0.0awar/65ip
8.Howell (34): 59.1ip, 116era-, 0.0awar/65ip
9.Grilli (40): 78.2ip, 115era-, -0.3awar/65ip

The bullpen legitimately looks like a very strong unit this year, and not just a fluke. These guys throw hard, have legit swing and miss stuff, and don't walk too many.

I think the biggest question is whether Leone has actually figured it out this year. He's certainly passed my eye test and the numbers look good.

Dropping Grilli is inevitable at this point I think - but ideally we would want one more good lefty added into the pen, so i bet howell gets one more chance.
92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#343831) #
"The Jays bullpen has the 9th most innings in baseball (243.1 innings) yet it also has the 7th lowest xFIP in the majors (3.87) and the 5th highest fWAR (3.5). That's clear testimony to the value of the 8-man bullpen."

This is an incredibly silly conclusion to draw from that data. What you can glean from those numbers is that the Jays rotation hasn't been going deep enough as a whole this season, and that the bullpen has still performed well. It certainly doesn't imply that the reason the Jays are getting good numbers is because they are carrying 8 RP.

The Jays got negative value from having Believeau around this weekend; he pitched poorly, he cost them bench options, and he wasn't needed to prevent workload even with the starter being removed in the 2nd inning to kick off the series (Osuna had to pitch a 4 run game to get work in this weekend). There are times when the 8 man bullpen makes sense, and in fact the last time I pointed out a situtation that it does you argued with me and said the Jays wouldn't DFA Bolsinger just to get an extra arm up for a day or two (you were wrong). Most of the time, however, the team would be better off rotating through fresh, optionable relievers if they need new arms. In this weekend's case, they could've easily optioned down Leone after Friday's game if they really felt they needed a new RP (they didn't) and been no worse off the next 8 days.

They really ought to find themselves another MLB-calibre player to add to the bench, and if they find themselves in a pitching bind Buffalo can always be used to help.
92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#343833) #
And one other thing - as I already pointed out, the rotation has stabilized. Over the last 30 days, the Jays bullpen is 25th out of 30 teams in innings pitched, and that is with Happ/Liriano coming back early from injuries and Biagini not being fully stretched out.

The 8 man bullpen should not be the team's baseline, it should be a reaction to team needs.
Chuck - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#343834) #
Some Judge math (corrections to my logic are welcome):

His .431 BABIP is based on 56 for 130 (in 153 of his 283 PA, the ball is not in play: 23 HR, 44 BB, 3 HBP, 83 SO).

A humble .300 BABIP would make him 39 for 130, costing him 17 hits.

Losing those 17 hits would cost him about 60 points of OBP and 100 points of SLG, for an OPS drop of 160.

So a .300 BABIP Judge would have an OPS around 985 rather than 1145. And we'd still be praising the hell out of him.

Hodgie - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#343835) #
"WAR is basically irrelevant when it comes to a DH. This has been discussed previously. Without the many clutch hits the Jays have had from Morales, I would contend that team would be buried in last place overall (in AL)."

One could also contend his performance in most other situations has contributed greatly to just as many losses. Forget WAR, he needs to hit to provide positive value. Given the pedestrian hitting line and dismal baserunning and double play totals, in the aggregate, he has not met that modest goal. Thus my comment re: his cost effectiveness.

PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#343836) #
We will have to agree to disagree on Morales Hodgie. He has been what was expected. As for cost effectiveness, I said that he was cost effective compared to EE. I don't see how one can argue otherwise as their performance has been quite similar.
China fan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#343837) #
92-93, you seem to be determined to evade the most obvious fact about this season:  the Jays rotation has been in serious trouble for most of the season, with several key injuries and frequent implosions by most of the starters, and it's the bullpen that has saved the team's bacon, by handling a much bigger workload than normal.  My statistics showed that fact. You can't remove the 8th man from the equation and pretend that a smaller bullpen did the job, because it didn't.  It's equally misleading for you to imply that the 8th-man debate is somehow about Jeff Beliveau, when you know that the 8th man has usually been Leone or Campos. 

Also, don't misquote me.   I never said that the 8-man bullpen was the ONLY reason for the bullpen's success, or even that it was the MAIN reason for the bullpen's success, but I did say that you can't remove the 8th man from the equation and pretend that the pen would have done exactly as well without it. Workload-sharing was a factor, and it's silly to pretend that workload-sharing played zero role.

Yes, it's true that the rotation is finally improving now.  Nobody said the 8-man bullpen should continue for the entire season.  But you've got to give credit to the 8-man pen when it worked, which is most of the season so far.

And I'm still waiting for the name of the mythical hitter who would be pinch-hitting for Ryan Goins or Darwin Barney every game in your alternative universe.  Explain who it would be, how the Jays would acquire him, how the Jays would keep him on the 25-man roster without options, and how he wouldn't be playing for another team in this universe.  You've admitted that Leblebijian is not a better defender than Darwin Barney, so let's hear another name.

uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#343838) #
"As for cost effectiveness, I said that he was cost effective compared to EE. I don't see how one can argue otherwise as their performance has been quite similar."

well, no - kendrys bas been slightly above average hitter while EE has been a top-30 hitter in mlb, while actually being able to handle 1B if need be. that's not similar.
Chuck - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#343839) #
...their performance has been quite similar.

As long as you ignore OBP. Encarnacion is besting Morales .377 to .307.

PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#343840) #
So does that make him worth almost twice as much? Hardly. I said similar, not the same. I would give EE the overall edge but at a ratio of 20-11?

Again, when you consider the other assets acquired with the difference, this is a big win for the FO. That will be even more clear, when Gurriel begins playing.
Chuck - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#343841) #
So does that make him worth almost twice as much? Hardly.

I said nothing about their salaries. You made the assertion that their performance has been similar. I suggested otherwise.

hypobole - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#343843) #
Don't have problem with the 8 man pen, but I wouldn't with a 7 man either. Whether Leb is better defensively than Barney is immaterial in a PH situation, if he's a better hitter than Goins and Barney.

As for Morales, with the launch angle/fly ball thing going on, he's hit more ground balls this year than he did last year or the year before. He still has the bat speed, but if he doesn't hit more balls in the air, he's going to remain replacement level.
eudaimon - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#343844) #
I think Morales is less valuable than it seems because of the number of veterans on this team, all of whom would likely benefit from being able to DH more often. For example, Bautista might be performing better if he was able to take a break from the field. I'd sure Donaldson, Tulo, and Martin would benefit as well.
PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#343845) #
I don't think that the Jays have a sufficient number of good offensive players to justify a rotating DH. Maybe another year.

On another subject. Joe Sheehan on MLB Network has ranked the managers in MLB. He ranks Terry Francona first and John Gibbons tenth.
92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#343846) #
Your statistics don't show that the 8th man in the bullpen helped handle a bigger workload than normal, sorry. Like not even in the slightest.

The argument I've been making is that the team's bullpen is poorly constructed if it needs the 8th guy as opposed to cycling between the 6th and 7th RPs as deemed necessary. It's an argument I wasn't making when the team had a pathetic rotation, so I have no idea why the innings load from April or May are supposed to matter. The Blue Jays did not need an 8 man bullpen this weekend coming off two days of rest in 4 days, it's that simple. We're talking about managing the roster today, not 8 weeks ago.

I'm not an MLB GM, so I don't have a thorough knowledge of every team's 25 and 40 man rosters, and who might be available that can help the Jays. I assure you they are out there though. It wouldn't matter if those players are out of options, the Jays are already carrying 3 guys at the bottom of their roster that have basically zero value and could be DFAd without missing a beat.

It's pretty simple. You carry 4 bench players that can help you win games. You carry 6 relievers that can help you win games and one long reliever. If your long reliever gets burned and you're worried about the next couple of days, you switch him with some other player from AAA for a week or two. If you need to do the same with your 6th RP, that's not the end of the world either.

I'm sick of watching Osuna lock down 4 run games and being told that 8 relievers are necessary to manage guys' workloads. Build a proper bullpen.
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#343847) #
The weather forecast is for 35 degrees and humid in Texas- perfect weather to give Bautista his first day off of the season.  Alas, no.  Marco Estrada gets a Pearce-Pillar-Bautista outfield behind him. 
uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#343848) #
only thing, 92-93, is that it's pretty clear that the only reason we have an 8 man pen is because grilli is unusable. and i doubt it's gibbons that wants to keep him while being too scared to use him.
92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#343849) #
Bautista is hitting .130/.242/.204 in June so yeah, it makes all sorts of sense to give him a blow and get some better D in there for a game. Does Smith have a good defensive reputation?
92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#343850) #
Absolutely uglyone, having a one-inning-only guy that the manager can't even trust in a 4 run game really hurts the roster.
rfan8 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#343851) #
This is the third year in a row it's taken Edwin until June to catch fire. By the end of the year, i think he will post similar numbers to last year.
Mike Green - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#343852) #
Smith has a solid defensive reputation- good speed, good instincts and first step.  His arm has not attracted any special attention, positive or negative.  He played some centerfield in the minors but lost time there to Pompey (no shame).  The club has said that he can back up Pillar. 

I'm not a fan of the 8 man pen.  Hell, I think 7 is too many.  I wonder how many teams are running with an 8 man pen now.  The Red Sox are in the East.  Cleveland, Kansas City and the White Sox are in the Central.  The Astros are in the West.  I doubt that more than one or two of them have been running an 8 man pen for almost the entire season. 

uglyone - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#343853) #
only thing, 92-93, is that it's pretty clear that the only reason we have an 8 man pen is because grilli is unusable. and i doubt it's gibbons that wants to keep him while being too scared to use him.
92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#343854) #
Joe Smith to the DL certainly helps explain why it was Osuna and not Smith pitching the 9th yesterday. It still should've been Grilli in that spot, and if he can't be trusted there he should be released.
PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#343855) #
Joe Smith on 10 day DL with shoulder inflammation. Campos called up.
China fan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#343856) #
So while some people were bitterly complaining about the 8-man pen, in fact there was a simple explanation that makes the critics look pretty foolish: Joe Smith was injured.  The Jays were trying to nurse him through the situation without putting him on the DL list.  That's why they had an 8-man pen: because at least one of the relievers wasn't actually able to pitch.

And that's just yet another explanation for why the 8-man pen is sensible.  There are many occasions when a reliever is less than 100 per cent and isn't available.  That information is kept secret.  So instead, because of a lack of information, we get fans angrily denouncing the 8-man pen, without even having a clue for the many reasons why it might be necessary on a particular day.


PeterG - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#343857) #
Do we think the Jays will keep and activate Sparkman at the end of his rehab. He should have 2 more rehab starts before a decision is made. Barring the unforeseen, I expect him to be kept. How might this affect bullpen numbers and usage?
China fan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#343858) #
"....it's pretty clear that the only reason we have an 8 man pen is because grilli is unusable...."

Grilli was warming up in the 9th inning in yesterday's game.  So he is not unusable.  But in any event, it's absolutely clear that Grilli's problems are not the "only reason" for the 8-man pen, and your explanation was proven false very quickly tonight with the news of the Smith injury. There can be many reasons for the 8-man pen, some of which we are unaware of.  One of those often-unknown reasons is injury -- like the Joe Smith injury.  Without knowledge of those reasons, the assumptions made by some fans are bound to be wrong.
92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#343859) #
With 10 day DLs, nursing guys through an injury and playing shorthanded is a really bad idea. For all we know Smith was available and something barked up for the first time on Sunday.

And now we get to hear about how Smith got injured from overuse, and how much worse it would've been without having an 8th RP around (as if that would've mattered one bit with respect to Smith's usage).
China fan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#343860) #
I'm certainly not saying that Joe Smith was over-used.   But I can guarantee that the Jays are trying to avoid the over-use of their relievers.  And that's one of the reasons why they have the 8-man pen: to increase the chances of avoiding over-use.

Look, it's not an exact science.  Nobody knows the limits of a pitcher's arm, as we've discussed here many times.  But it's only logical that a bigger bullpen can help to reduce the pressure on the relievers.

Magpie - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#343861) #
the Jays rotation has been in serious trouble for most of the season,

Yup. The rotation has been roughly league average so far. That's a problem because the rotation was supposed to be this team's strength. It was, after all, the best starting group in the AL in 2016.

But scoring fewer runs a game than everyone except the Angels and Royals hasn't exactly helped.
Magpie - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#343862) #
Grilli reminds me of Sisyphus. After his awful start, which saw him banished to the back of the bullpen line, he started pitching better - 10 appearances, 10 K, 2 BB, 1 HR, 2 ER in 8.1 and and so he starts to climb back up the bullpen hill. Then came his Inning From Hell, he falls back down to the bottom of the hill and has to start all over.
Thomas - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#343863) #
The idea that the Jays had an 8-man bullpen this weekend because of Smith's injury is silly. The Jays have had an 8-man bullpen most, if not all, of this year. The Jays called up a reliever to replace Smith, rather than a position player.

If the 8-man pan was solely or primarily about Smith's injury, you're suggesting that the Jays wanted 7 healthy arms to cover for the fact Smith was unusable or at least that the team wanted to avoid using him if at all possible. However, now that's he's been forced on the DL, they are free to call up a position player as they still have 7 healthy arms in the pen now that Smith's been forced to the DL. They called up Campos instead.

I will agree that one point in favour of an 8-man pen generally is that it allows the manager more flexibility in using relievers so the manager is better placed to avoid using a reliever who may be nursing a minor injury or general soreness. I don't think anyone reasonably disputes that.

The logical response to that is that an 8-man pen can be used on a short-term basis if the above situation presents itself, and also that teams should be less reluctant to use the DL now that it's 10, not 15, days.
China fan - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#343864) #
I didn't say that the Smith injury was the sole reason for the 8-man bullpen.  What I did say was this:  the 8-man pen helps the Jays to cope with the minor injuries that we often know nothing about.  Smith's injury just happens to be an injury that was finally revealed publicly.  There are many of those nagging injuries all the time.  Most of the time, we don't know anything about them -- which allows people to claim that the 8-man pen is unnecessary.   When we have evidence of an injury, I should be permitted to point it out as an example of the reasons why the 8-man pen is helpful.

By the way, the Jays have now confirmed that Smith's shoulder problem had first flared up in the Tampa series last week.  It probably explains his poor performance in the June 14 game.  This means that he's had that nagging injury for the past six days.  I'm sure this is actually quite common -- a reliever is on the roster but cannot actually pitch for a few games.  Meantime there are fans complaining about "poor bullpen use" or "unnecessary 8-man pen" without knowing the true situation.

92-93 - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#343871) #
It would've been so nice to see Pearce hit with first and second one out in the 7th inning on Saturday. Goins' AB lowered their win expectancy by 20%.
greenfrog - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 10:47 PM EDT (#343877) #
Pearce's popout with the bases loaded and one out in the 6th probably significantly reduced the Jays win expectancy tonight, too.
Thomas - Monday, June 19 2017 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#343878) #
While you didn't precisely say "that the Smith injury was the sole reason for the 8-man bullpen", it's hardly unreasonable to interpret the comment "That's why they had an 8-man pen: because at least one of the relievers wasn't actually able to pitch" as suggesting that the 8-man pen in this instance was at least primarily due to an injury.

If, as you suggested in your last comment, you had been saying "the 8-man pen helps the Jays to cope with the minor injuries that we often know nothing about", I would have expected you to phrase your earlier comment in the present tense. By saying "that's why they had.." it clearly suggested you were talking about the use of an 8-man pen in the past, not its continued use.
China fan - Tuesday, June 20 2017 @ 05:31 AM EDT (#343896) #
Thomas, you are absolutely right:  I didn't phrase that specific comment as clearly as I should have.  But the theme of my comments has been consistent:  there are many factors that explain the 8-man bullpen.  The injury to Smith was probably among the biggest factors over the past week, and it was a factor that was unknown to us at the time, which is why I singled it out for specific mention in that specific comment.  But in my comments as a whole, I've tried to make clear that there are multiple factors. 
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