The crowd in Baltimore is pathetic. Bundy has considerably better stuff than I remember.

Even when he's playing 1B, Donaldson still has throwing problems....

Donaldson hasn't played a single inning at 1B since 2013. He had clearly forgotten that Travis was right behind him, in a much easier position to make the throw to 1B.

Pearce is hitting like he did in the second half of 2014, which was an elite level.

Surprised they didn't put pearce at 1B. He's good there.

Don't like seeing anyone injured but pearce mashing the righty wilk hopefully give him some starting DH duty even if kendrys is healthy.

I assume they didn't put Pearce at 1B because that would have required Grichuk to go into the game. Instead they have Solarte in the lineup, rather than Grichuk, which is definitely a lot better.

If the Jays have a lead in the 8th inning, it would make sense to bring in Grichuk for defensive purposes.

Solarte in RF would have been my preference for the out of position guy rather than Donaldson at 3B....but not a big deal really.

Surprised they didn't put pearce at 1B. He's good there.

I thought so too. I thought Gibby had caught a 'break' if you could call it that, when Morales had to come out and assumed he'd just put Grichuk in right and move Pearce to first, and shore up two defensive positions. Instead, he made the defence worse with Donaldson at first.

They're saying DL trip for Morales which I suspect means Teoscar, who singled and stole 2 bases his first time up tonight.

So far tonight, Bo is 2-2, with a double, a stolen base and turned a DP. He's back to his .400 BA. Vlad has a couple of SF's, and Danny Jansen is 2-2 with a shot.

With the heavy workload that the bullpen has endured already, and the current absence of a second LHP in the pen, the Jays might opt to promote Tim Mayza for a few games if Morales needs the DL.

So much more versatility with teoscar on the roster instead of kendrys that i find it hard to even figure out my preferred lineup.

After Morales has been substituted out of the match, Gibbons can still switch in defense Pearce to 1B, Donaldson to 3B, Solarte in LF and Granderson in RF. If Donaldson must stay in 1B, then Solarte in 3B, Pearce to LF and Granderson in RF.

Gibby and fellow coaches, if you guys are reading battersbox now, there is still an opportunity to switch.

Gibbons can still switch in defense Pearce to 1B, Donaldson to 3B, Solarte in LF and Granderson in RF.

Or bring in Grichuk for Travis, who was last out in the 7th, and move Solarte to second and Pearce to first and Donaldson back to third.

Why is Diaz going there? Oh my. What a terrible mistake.

How many soul crushing, excruciatingly frustrating low scoring games have the Jays lost in Baltimore the last five seasons? Unbelievable.

The Jays might be benefiting from even numbered year Steve Pearce. He's looking great right now and a reduced playing schedule might help him be more effective over 300-400 plate appearances rather than trying to play him everyday (which I think he is capable of but his body probably isn't).

Not sure why Diaz was running on that shallow fly ball to left. There was still only one out. Might be a costly mistake.

How many runs have the Jays squandered because of poor sends by Rivera?

Maybe they could put Rivera on the DL and move Morales to third base coach.

Teams combined 0-15 with RISP. Now would be a good time get get a first.

I've always believed the Pearce signing was underated; he's had stretches of elite offence in his career. Unless he's playing first, he doesn't offer anything on defense (but I don't think it's bad enough where he's a liability, just my opinion). On a team like Jays this year, where they have plenty of outfield options, they can just let him hit.

Man is it nice to have legit corner OF defense this year.

At least 3-4 flyballs tonight i think could easily have been "doubles" last year.

Attaboy josh.

Attaboy randal.

YES!! JD's Hr

Vlad has a hr and 2B and 6 RBI tonight.

This team could win a lot of games. Just sayin.

A major positive for this year is the depth in the minors: Alford, Hernandez, Jansen, McGuire, Espinosa (for now), Biagini, Borucki, Mayza, Ramirez, and others. To say nothing of Guerrero Jr. and Bichette. This could really help shore up the club over the course of the season and add wins.

Another thing I like about this year's club is the potential to have a solid, consistent starting rotation, which could help keep the team in a lot of games, avoid long losing streaks, and ease the bullpen's workload.

I've always believed the Pearce signing was underated

I've thought the 2016/17 offseason moves as a whole were underrated. I know there is the "we hate Morales, we wanted Edwin" viewpoint, and Morales has certainly been a disappointment. But on the other side of the ledger we got a first round pick in the last year of the first round picks when Edwin left, the Smoak signing so far is pure gold, the Pearce signing as you mention was a good one, the Joe Smith signing was a good one, and we got Leone in the December Rule 5. And for those who wanted Bautista back, there was that outcome when no one else signed him.

If Morales goes to the DH, which sounds likely, they probably call another pitcher.
They're struggling to find enough ABs for everybody and the starters haven't been able to pitch deep.
Would probably be nice for Morales to get some re-hab ABs.

Granderson is the only hitter the other team can use their lefty on and he's doing OK so far.
Bringing a lefty for Smoak/Morales/Solarte just to get some use out of them is always entertaining.

Pearce is in a good zone, but I don't know if he can stay healthy playing every day.

Another beaned jersey.

The Orioles are probably more concerned about having to pay Chris Davis 115M the next 5 years than losing Machado.

Whenever Axford doesn't spike the ball on the ground he has a great 95-97 mph fastball with late break.

I don' t think Cortes will last the year in Baltimore.

Sparkman was the rule V pick. Leone was just a waiver claim.

the criticisms, of course, were that the moves made last year weren't significant enough given how good the team's core was.

Winning is great, but beating Baltimore is always special. This will be a fun
team to watch. I pity the weak-minded fools who were swayed by the pessimistic Media about this Team. They certainly missed something special in the Jays’ series verses Chicago.

Great time for Granderson to draw a key walk against the lefty they brought in to face him - the run he forced in was huge. It's great to see a guy not swinging at pitches outside the zone. The Pillars of the world can be frustrating to watch as they flail away at pitches 12 inches outside.

Speaking of pitches outside the zone, Bundy had an interesting stretch in the 2nd inning where he threw 13 straight pitches outside the strike zone, but only walked 1 guy. In the Jays' defense, his slider is a wicked pitch, and Bundy is starting to look like a legit ace. The 13 pitches in a row were a 4 pitch walk to Pillar, followed by 7 straight outside the zone to Travis, who swung at 4 of them, fouling one off and ending up with a K. Bundy then threw 2 straight outside the zone to Diaz, who swung at one of them.

I agree about the inadvisability of sending Diaz in that situation. The fly ball was shallow, Diaz has average speed at best, and the next batter was Pearce, who is hitting really well, and there would have been just one out. If the fly ball was out #2, and a weak hitter was up next, sure, give it a try, but that was a low percentage play. Pearce had a better chance of getting the run in.

Rule 5 draft pick Cortes, the guy brought in to face Granderson, had some very good numbers in AA/AAA last year, but didn't look anything like a big league pitcher in giving up walk, HR, single, double to the top of the Jays order. Agreed, he's not going to last the season.

They're saying Morales will likely NOT go on the DL. Maybe Solarte or Pearce DH's tomorrow.

Some great pitching performances tonight - Scherzer goes 9, with only 2 hits allowed and 10 K's, Kluber goes 8, with only 2 hits allowed and 13 K's, and breakout young star Jake Junis threw 7 innings of 1 hit shutout for KC. Grab him if he's still available in your pool.

One thing working in the Jays favor vs their wildcard competition is the interleague schedule. The Jays get the weaker NL East, while the Angels have to run the NL West gauntlet (13 games against the D Backs, Rockies and Dodgers). Jays also get 3 against the Marlins who are horrible.

There is no way for Diaz to beat this throw, but it's attempted in case the throw is off the mark.
It was a cold and humid night but Mancini's throw was perfect.

Buck and Pat talked about the 2011 draft and how good it was.
The Jays picked Tyler Beede, Jacob Anderson, Joe Musgrove, Dwight Smith Jr and Kevin Comer in the first round.

They have to wait for a medical exam before doing anything with Morales, but he didn't look like someone who will be running in the next 10 days.

Interesting that despite the strong record to date, the Jays still aren’t running on all cyclinders with some inconsistency in the starters, BP and line up. Hopefully that bodes well for the team as this year they are finding a way to win, whereas last year they seemed to find a way to lose.

Based on results to date they will need it. LAA and Houston are looking so strong they may need to beat the Yanks for the second wild card.

Reading this after the game and knowing the outcome is fun. I was also feeling extremely nervous until JD got into that one.

Re: JD at 1B - apparently he said he could do it, and Solarte is more comfortable at 3B than 1B. Sounds like they have no intention of putting Solarte in the OF, because that would have seemed to be the most obvious move.

Real interesting to see what happens if Morales goes on the DL. I suspect they may call up a RP, and just rotate guys through the DH spot.

Happy to see Grichuk get a hit. Poor guy looked like he's pressing way too hard. He'll be fine.

How can you not love Curtis Granderson?  Smart, joyous, generous ballplayer (with plenty of skills).  I'll take six of those, please. It looks to me like he might be ready to hit left-handers for the first time.  Bill James said a long time ago (about Jose Cruz Sr.) that maybe one in a thousand players are better at age 37 than at age 27. Granderson was a fine ballplayer at age 27, but I think that he's got a chance to be better (as an offensive player at least). 

I disagreed with the decision to send Diaz as well.  The decision would have been justifiable had there been one out instead of no outs. As it happened, Pearce's long fly ball that followed Smoak's short fly ball would have scored Diaz easily. It seemed to be that Diaz was less than 50-50 to score on that play.

My primary issue with the lineup- having Morales against a RHP at first base starting (and batting fifth) is such a drain on a club.  If you want to give Smoak a DH day against a RHP, fine.  Play Pearce at first base.  If you want to give Grichuk a day off, fine.  Run with the outfield that the club did.  What you absolutely should not do (with this roster) is to try to do both things at once.  It ended up being a non-issue for unfortunate reasons.  I thought that Donaldson was catching on at first base as the game wore on- I can easily see him finishing his career there. 

I've thought the 2016/17 offseason moves as a whole were underrated.

Underrated at the time, or underrated now? Gotta choose whether you're going to use hindsight in favour of the front office (Leone, Joe Smith, be extra generous and pretend that Smoak was offseason (and not a fluke that it worked out)) or against them (Bautista, JP Howell, Saltalamacchia and a dozen other awful awful backup catchers). Morales looked bad at the time and has only gotten worse. Pearce, we'll see - he wasn't an asset in 2017, but didn't cost much either. He's off to a good start this year, but it's all of 23 plate appearances.

I still say the 2016 offseason moves were bad overall. But I liked the 2017 offseason and feel like this is a good group for transitioning to what we hope will be a long and prosperous Vlad & Bo Era.

The Os set a record low for attendance last night at 7915.

I'd like to think putting Donaldson on 1B is a way to work in some positional flexibility for when Guerrero Jr. forces his way up. Donaldson plays a good 3B, but his health might be better served with a few days a week somewhere else at this point.

Also, I posited last year they may have been the slowest team in baseball and the new guys aren't exactly burners, except maybe Grichuk. I haven't seen Solarte at full speed yet, does he have a "non-lumbering" speed?

I haven't seen Solarte at full speed

Maybe you have. In 2000 plate appearances he has just 6 triples and 5 stolen bases. Per Statcast, he is slower than MLB average and in the middle of the pack among third basemen.

He has a broad range of skills, to be sure, but it doesn't seem that speed is on the list.

"Based on results to date they will need it. LAA and Houston are looking so strong they may need to beat the Yanks for the second wild card."

The other team with a very good chance at the wild card are the Twins. They may not be as good as either the Jays or Angels, but they won't have to be. The one huge factor in their favour are the 57 games they'll play vs the Tigers/Royals/White Sox.

Very good point about the Twins hypobole. KC, Detroit and CWS are still rebuilding. CWS may be closest to completion of their rebuild.

I like the strategic challenge of this issue ie as an AL Central team. Detroit seems to be willing to outspend the others. The others are equal in budget levels.

The best strategy is to rebuild when the others are not. So that when your window opens the other teams' windows are closing or close to it.

This has nothing to do with the Jays. Sorry.

Detroit seems to be willing to outspend the others.

I don't believe that that is still their strategy. They are continuing to live with a number of regrettable, expensive commitments to Cabrera, V Martinez and Zimmermann.

Infield grandstand tickets at Fenway are going for about $25 on StubHub -- against the Yankees.

The 2016/17 off-season was fine aside from Morales (particularly the third year). Pearce is a good player who was signed to a solid contract. Smith was a good reliever coming off a down year who they got cheaply (and ultimately traded for more system depth). Bautista looked like he may not sign with a team (thereby eliminating the comp pick they would have gotten) so bringing him back to fill a need on essentially a one year deal made sense. Not too concerned about the smaller bit moves (Howell types). You win some, you lose some with those cheap fringe 25 man roster free agents. Again, it comes down to jumping early on Morales and giving him three years. Mistakes happen. If that's the worst one they make, then that's not too bad.

I enjoyed this past off-season a lot more since it more closely resembled what I have wanted them to do (stay with short-term vets in free agency but also find ways to add more controllable younger talent via trade).

The goal appears to be to stretch this level of contention as long as possible until Vlad/Bo are ready, and if their performance in AA is any indication, they might be coming way ahead of schedule (and bringing some friends with them).

There's really no comparison between the 2 offseasons imo.

Last offseason not only did we lose our 2nd best hitter EE (and another good one in saunders) and an innings eater in dickey, but we only added one interesting piece in Pearce (who was also a massive injury risk). The money knowingly wasted on Morales was just an extra kick in the nuts for an offseason of missed opportunity.

This offseason was entirely different - not only did we lose nothing of note off the roster, but we added no fewer than FIVE interesting pieces who had all been legit starting calibre in the very recent past.....and all of them added for peanuts. That's pretty incredible imo.

Trying to group the two offseasons as similar to me seems way off. This past offseason was objectively a very good one, the previous one an objectively bad one....and an even worse one because it came off of back to back ALCS seasons, when a good offseason could have kept the contending going (though, admittedly, even a good offseason likely wouodn't have mattered in the end last year given the disaster injury year we had).

and another good one in saunders

I think it's fair to say that the Saunders they let walk away was no longer a good hitter. Nothing he has done since has made the Jays regret that decision.

true, but imo he was an impact (albeit part time) piece in 2016 overall, so that was a loss off the roster either way.

If we're discussing and comparing the last 2 off-seasons, we should really expand it to the last 3 off-seasons, since those 3 were the same Front Office.

And two of those three off-seasons were pretty good. The decision to sign contracts with Happ and Estrada was a very good one and is still paying benefits today.

Of course it's still far too early to judge the latest off-season. Solarte and Diaz and Granderson are looking good now, but we can't be sure how they will look by the end of the season, even if we are confident in them now.

so that was a loss off the roster either way.

Sure, it was the loss of a body. Had Saunders produced a second half like his first, he would have likely received a QO.

Yangervis Solarte is a better baserunner than most despite his “speed”. He know how to run the bases and when he must push the envelope. He’s at least average, perhaps a tiny bit better. If anyone disagrees, I ask this,”Are we watching the same person?” He’s not getting thrown out because he’s slow!

"Sure, it was the loss of a body"

more importantly, it was the loss of 140gms worth of 117wrc+ from the previous year's roster. It was the right decision not to sign him, because he was unlikely to replicate it, but that contribution was still a loss that needed filling - they signed Pearce to fill it. So Pearce wasn't really an addition, but a replacement.

"Of course it's still far too early to judge the latest off-season."

I don't think so. I feel comforatble saying it was a good (maybe very good) - but not great - offseason. There were no losses and there were 5 good bets made on players with legit starting track record and upside. Even if they all crap out in the end, I'll still say they were good bets.

Of course, imo it could have been a great offseason if they had turned one or two of those bets into a more expensive but more reliable impact upgrade.

but that contribution was still a loss that needed filling

Gotcha. I thought you were casting Saunders as someone whom the organization let get away.

Last offseason, most of the moves made some sense when looked at individually (even Morales to some extent). The problem was that all together they made no sense. The roster was left with 4 1B/DHs and one real OF. And that is not a comment made only in hindsight. Many people could see that before the season started. The consequence of that was to make a perfectly sensible acquisition of someone like Pearce a net negative because you forced him into a fulltime OF position and eroded all of his value.

There wasn't a lot to get excited about (or really dislike) this offseason but the sum of the moves made a lot more sense to me.

When Kendrys Morales goes on the D.L. the Jays will know how long. If it’s a 10-12 day return, they might call up a Reliever. If it’s 14 days or more needed for a return, the best hitting Outfielder is likely to be called up.

But why would they call up a reliever? Our bullpen has hardly been overworked.

Heck only one guy has been used for more than 3 outs in an outing so far and that was Osuna, because he was already too rested. Other than that, none of the relievers have an appearance longer than 1 inning, and Osuna and Tepera are the only ones even averaging an inning per appearance.

The game recap on the Jays' site says that they don't expect Morales will hit the D.L.

Where are you folks seeing differently?

Morales DL stint aka wishful thinking.

Morales DL, Mayza up

As I argued last night, Mayza is the logical call, especially for a short-term stint. The Jays need a greater diversity of options in their bullpen, to mix and match against different threats. And most of the starters are not yet capable of going 7 or 8 innings, so bullpen workload would soon become an issue if it's not already.

Hernandez will be up at some point, but he's probably not quite ready yet. The strikeouts are still a problem.

I like the move calling up a reliever. Keep all of our arms fresh, hopefully we will see the payoff in September. With our current roster construction we have the positional depth to handle this and we can always flip Mayza back down if we need a bat.

Mayza is a LHP who still has options. He was the last pitcher to be cut at the end of spring training. His spring stats, for what it's worth: 10.2 innings, 2 earned runs, 10 hits, 9 strikeouts, 2 walks.

Rotoworld's mlb power rankings are out and the Jays have moved up from 16th to 12th, passing the Cardinals, Twins, Rockies and Mariners.

Ohtani is the first player since 1919 to get 2 wins and hit 3 HR's in a week. No, it wasn't Babe Ruth who was the last to do it, it was Jim Shaw. Who? Shaw was a pitcher from 1913 to 1921. In the 1919 season, he pitched in 45 games, 38 of them starts, and threw 306 innings. Interestingly, he had 528 career AB's and only hit 4 HR's, so 75% of his career HR's came in one week.

there is zero need for another reliever.

silly move.

Pearce  starts again today for Grichuk.

There is zero need for a 5th outfielder.

That would be a very silly move.

Jays probably have Grichuk working with hitting coaches - Tomorrow, with Travis due to sit, Grichuk will play.

Who is DH?

David hasselhoff?
Daryl Hannah?
Dustin Hoffman?
Derek Holland?

Apparently, Solarte is the DH tonight. I guess they are preparing for Grichuk as a late inning defensive replacement and want to keep Solarte's hot bat in the lineup.

A reliever is the only move that makes sense.
Loup hasn't been great so far and some teams have many lefties.

One funny option would have been to bring Biagini up to face his favourite team, but he just went last night.
Baltimore always does a number on Estrada.

Technically, all of the hitters have had success against Cashner except Travis and Martin.
Grichuk is 1 for 6 with a home run. Morales is 2 for 5 with a home run for an OPS of 1.500.

Donaldson dhs in my opinion. With a bit of a rotation for rest.

The Grichuk deal is the only move of this past offseason I think we might live to regret, and I felt that at the time it was made, although it sure looks worse at the moment.  Leone's extra year of control is nice, and he was pretty great last year - not to mention selling low on Greene, and trading for an OF when the market value of position players was tanking.  Either way, a much, much better offseason this year.  The Morales deal was hideous before the ink dried, although I do recall being talked into optimism with all the talk on the box about ballparks, launch angles and exit velocity. 

I don't really think you can give the FO a lot of credit for resigning Estrada in 2015 though - coming off a good season, wanting to stay - resigning him was a no-brainer.  Acquiring the guy and helping him realize his potential as a starter was the strong move. 

The Jays are not wasting any time with anybody this year. The 10-Day D.L. makes that much easier for the Jays. No hitter has a chance to stay in hitting shape with all the snow-outs, but a Pitcher might be able to pitch, if they can throw somewhere until the weather is better.

After that hit last night, it’s a good time to sit down with Randal Grichuk and discuss what he’s doing right or wrong and not doing right or wrong. It should be readily apparent that what he’s doing this year is totally different from what he was doing last year.l

China fan - your math is right if you consider Pearce to be a MLB OF:)

Kidding aside, if you are pathologically inclined to use Pearce in the OF, as Gibby seems to be, then nights like tonight and when Stroman starts are the games to do it in.

It's taken Grichuk only 49 PA's to be worth -0.4 fWAR.

It's taken Leone only 4.2 IP to be worth -0.3 fWAR.

Conner Greene, currently in AA, has a 16.20 ERA (although with a sparkling 6.76 FIP).

Our pen is rested. We don't need 8 relievers. And Pearce isn't really an OF.

And jer Leone has a 7.71era and has lost them 2 games already.

I still really like the Grichuk trade. I think they did a great job of selling high on Leone, a guy they picked up on waivers. Sure Grichuk has had a slow start, but how about Leone? He's been terrible too, with an ERA of 7.74, WHIP of 1.71, and 3 HR's allowed in 4 2/3 innings. He's already been tagged with 2 losses. With both guys, of course, it's too early for the results to mean much of anything.

Something seems very fishy about that rule. Wouldn't it allow the hitter to "accidently" interfere with the catcher if he swings and misses on a hit and run and you've got someone like Molina running the bases?

There has been nothing "heavy" about "the workload that the bullpen has endured already", even if the Jays have played 11 games already. They are 15th in bullpen IP and are averaging the second fewest relief innings per game. If anybody back there is tired, it's because the bullpen is poorly constructed and needs a guy (other than Barnes, if he counts) who can pitch multiple innings so they aren't each pitching every other night.

And there absolutely is a need for a bench player with speed. You can call him a 5th OF or whatever you want.

The metrics don't lie - travis is a terrific defensive 2b.

And while he might not have range, Diaz sure looks like he has the hands and arm to play SS.

Nice job by Sanchez, but without the lead it hasn’t got much significance.

82 pitches thru 7. Looks good go.

I like that Gibbons let Sanchez work his way out of that jam in the 8th. Impressive outing for Aaron.

Was it Mike that said Grandy is a better hitter at 37 than he was at 27?

The metrics don't lie - travis is a terrific defensive 2b.

Doesn't pass the eye test.

Youngest player to ever get 100 saves. Ever. In history.

And everyone wants to trade him.

A lot of people didn’t give Sanchez much of a chance of making it as a frontline starter, either. Sanchez and Osuna are the two most talented arms on the staff, in my view.

Hitter interference is like the infield fly rule. It keeps you from getting more than 1 out, but it protects you from making an error on a play. An out at the plate is never a good move.

I am with ugly. An 8-man bullpen is a mismanagement of roster space.

And everyone wants to trade him.

Or convert him to a starter.

I say keep him until he walks. I don't want a Halladay repeat. Keep Donaldson too. Until he walks.

Haven't every team the Jays have played so far have 8 or 9 pitchers in the pen?

Baltimore's pen tonight:

Brad Brach,
Darren O'day
Michael Givens
Richard Bleier
Pedro Araujo
Mike Wright Jr
Miguel Castro
Yefry Ramirez
Hunter Harvey

Or course, when the starter gives 1 run in 8 inning, it seems like the pen is superfluous.
Go look at the Yankees/Red Sox game..

Well, Pearce's bat didn't look so hot today and Donaldson is not locked in.

That was a great game. Well deserved win for Sanchez.
I think they jinxed it after the7th inning. There was no need to tell us how many hits the Os had or to talk about something historic.

Sanchez has changed quite a bit. He used to have an amazing sinker and a great curve.
Now he's added a change that he's throwing more often than the curve, presumably because the curve was causing the blisters. The result is very encouraging, but we're only April 10.

The thing that jumped at me when I first saw Grichuk was how low he crouches.
Turns out that he can't hit on the outside or the top of the zone.
You can always move in when all the pitches are outside, so, naturally, he has to stand up more to hit the high stuff.
Well, hopefully that works. He just needs a .200 average with power and good defense.

So, if you run the Jays do you look at 5 year deals for Stroman, Sanchez, and Osuna this winter and if so for how much?
All 3: 2 years of arbitration then free agency

I'd be looking at any free agent years costing $20 mil, and pre-free agent years $10 and $15 mil so $85 mil for 5 years.  Might take $100 mil for Stroman & Sanchez ($25 per year for free agent years).  For the 3 of them that would be up to $60-$70 mil a year for 2021-2023.

Last contract on the books from now is Tulo running out in 2021 ($4 mil buyout or $15 mil option) so nothing on the books that makes that unaffordable.  Now, those guys might be expecting to make $30 mil if they can establish themselves as Cy contenders by then (Stroman, Sanchez) or $25 mil for Osuna as a top closer.

By 2021 we should see Vlad (replacing $20+ mil Donaldson), Bo (replacing ($20+ mil Tulo), Alford, and others replacing expensive players.  Starting pitching is always the killer in cost so if the Jays could lock those 3 down they'd be in great shape for Vlad & Bo's cheap prime years.

So who says no to those deals?  I suspect the players although for pitchers there is always the fear that their next pitch could be their last.

Yep, scott, it's still a crying shame that we didn't give this kid a chance to be the Ace SP he could have been.

As I said earlier, winning is fun but beating Baltimore is better. This is one of the best starts to an April the Jays have had for a while. The Fun should continue as everyone gets better.

Youngest player to ever get 100 saves. Ever. In history.

And everyone wants to trade him.

This is mainly b/c MLB teams don't put 20 year old starting pitching studs in the pen.

I didn't get a chance to watch the game, did Sanchez pitch well? 5 BB's and 4 K's in 8 innings doesn't suggest so.

11 walks and 13 k's in 19 innings for Sanchez to start the season, hopefully that improves.

Sanchez was throwing with lower velocity. The comments on the broadcast were that he was getting more movement by not throwing as hard, and was more effective as a result. From what I could see, he had very nice movement on the fastball, was changing speeds very well, and used his changeup a ton. Looked very much in control of the hitters, even though his control was a little off. Great job to get out of the 8th with only 1 run allowed after 3 straight hits. It was refreshing to hear the broadcasters talking about Sanchez not having allowed a hit, rather the nonsense you often get about not mentioning it out loud.

I don't really love what I saw from sanchez tonight tbh.

I think he tricked them with the new approach but i'm not sure that can last.

"....it's still a crying shame that we didn't give this kid a chance to be the Ace SP he could have been...."

And yet you are complaining almost daily about the team's decision to give Biagini a chance to be a SP. You want Biagini in the bullpen, where the SP option will be permanently foreclosed. Biagini might not be an ace (and Osuna might not have been an ace starter either), but he still has a chance to a good SP in the majors. Why not give him a chance, instead of forcing him into a bullpen role? Especially when there is no desperate need for Biagini in the bullpen anyway, since there are many other Buffalo pitchers available.

As you correctly note with Osuna, you don't learn SP skills in a bullpen. Same truth applies to Biagini. He won't learn SP skills in a bullpen. Instead he's the top starter in Buffalo, the 6th starter in the organization, and he has every chance to refine the skills that he will need to be a SP. He has already had an encouraging start in Buffalo this season (five innings, no earned runs). It's a worthwhile experiment. Give him two or three months to try it. If it doesn't work out, or if the Jays need him in the majors, it's easy enough to put him back in the bullpen option at that point.

With Osuna, of course, the biggest factor is that he doesn't have any strong desire to be a starter. He has stated that repeatedly. Biagini is the opposite -- he has repeatedly stated that he wants to be a starter. Of course the organization could just ignore Osuna's wishes and force him to be a starter, but the Jays have probably figured that there is something in Osuna's personality and skill set that makes him better suited to be a reliever, and that's why the team and the player have such a consensus on it. When the team and the player agree on it, I suspect they are right, and I wouldn't overrule their decision because a couple of fans think it is "a crying shame."

Year after year, whenever the Jays temporarily create an 8-man bullpen, the critics oversimplify the issue by portraying it purely as a question of the overall workload of the pen. It's never so simple. There are other factors involved, especially with a pitcher like Tim Mayza.

On the workload question: this is a subjective question on which we will never agree, since nobody knows the healthy limits of each pitcher. Nobody has been able to establish how many innings is healthy for a reliever and at what point it puts a strain on the pitcher and reduces his effectiveness or puts him at risk for injury. Everyone is entitled to an opinion on overall workload, and obviously there will be disagreement.

But it's equally obvious that there are other factors at play here, especially the specific role of each pitcher, his specific strengths and weaknesses against various types of hitters. Mayza is a specialist against LHB. He was the final cut in spring training because the Jays love what he can do against LHB. Aside from him, they only have Loup as a lefty specialist. There is Clippard, who has reverse splits, but he is being used as a generic mid-innings reliever, and that's probably his best role. Mayza, on the other hand, has strikeout skills that many other pitchers do not. He had 27 strikeouts in 17 innings in the majors last year. With him in the bullpen, Gibbons can bring him in for one or two LHB batters, especially with runners on base where he needs a strikeout. It gives him a weapon that he otherwise lacks. And that's what a bullpen needs: as many diverse weapons as possible.

The Jays will probably keep an 8-man pen for only a few days, but it certainly has advantages if it adds a specialist like Mayza. The alternative was Hernandez, who has 5 strikeouts in just two games in Buffalo and could easily be exposed by good major-league pitchers. (Last September was not a proper test of Hernandez against top pitchers.) If the need is for a pinch-runner, the Jays have Ngoepe. If the need is for a defensive OF, the Jays have Grichuk. It was a reasonable decision to add a different kind of specialist to the bullpen, rather than Hernandez.

Osuna is at his best when he throws mostly just his fastball for strike.
That wouldn't work as a starter.

An elite closer is worth as much as a great starter these days, and of course they'd create a hole.

It's a great start for the year and the hitting hasn't been unsustainable.
Travis and Grichuk will eventually get going. Donaldson is capable of much more.
The starting pitching has been solid, still rough around the edges as you'd expect in April, but promising.
And the pen looks fine.

The attendance is down most everywhere because of the cold.
Less than 800 butts in seats to watch the Rays beat the White Sox.

I'm predicting that all the praise coming Aaron Sanchez's way will fire up his former best friend to outdo Sanchez.

Fitting for Bautista's replacement to homer off O'Day.

Agreed,

Between his personal preference, pitching style and results I think osuna is right where he should be.

For every Chris sale there are 3 kelvim Escobar's and a dozen Daniel bards

I looked up the on-pace numbers for Jays relievers, expecting to find that the 8-man bullpen is as dumb as ever... but actually the pen has been worked fairly hard thus far.

           IP    Pace
Osuna      6.3    85
Tepera     7.0    95
Barnes     5.1    72
Loup       3.7    49
Oh         5.0    67
Clippard   5.7    76
Axford     4.3    58

The starters are averaging 5.8 IP thus far.

Lol, china, you need to calm yourself.

1.I don't bring up Biagini every day. You said you thought the bullpen needed upgrading, so I pointed out that one of our best relievers is stuck in buffalo for some reason.

2.I don't get the comparison. I wouldn't want Osuna pitching in Buffalo either. (Though him getting an milb stint would at least make more sense than keeping a 28yr old with hundreds of mediocre innings under his belt in the minors).

3.Putting Biagini (or osuna) in the bullpen in no way prevents him from starting. The red sox and the yanks both currently have their #6 and #7 SP in their bullpen. Most teams do.

4.Osuna and biagini are in no way comparable pitchers. Osuna is an elite young MLB arm, Biagini is a veteran borderline MLBer.

It's common for starters to work a little less in their first two or three starts of the season, and there are always several days off in April to ease the burden on the pen.  I'm not worried at all about the paces for the relievers.  The shallow bench isn't great- they could call up Roemon Fields for pinch-running and to back up Pillar.

The ball was not carrying last night.  The O's in particular hit quite a few balls hard that might have left the yard on another day.  Sanchez did keep them in the middle of the park (to his credit), but  most days he would not have been as successful as he was  last night.  His curveball to Mancini in the eighth with runners on 2nd and 3rd and nobody out was very pretty and effective at a key time.

Devon Travis was positioned further off the plate than I can remember, and then Hudson rang him on twice on pitches a few inches outside.  It was easy to understand why he was frustrated. 

Scott - Pitch Info has Osuna with a full 5 distinct plus pitches - 4 seamer, 2 seamer, cutter, slider, changeup.

4sm: 55.1%, 96.2mph, +1.2pv/100
2sm: 7.7%, 95.1mph, +2.3pv/100

CT: 9.4%, 90.9mph, +0.9pv/100
SL: 19.0%, 87.1mph, +2.9pv/100

CH: 8.6%, 83.4mph, +1.0pv/100

I have no problem with then bringing up Mayza. My problem is doing so at the cost of the bench.

Bring up Mayza. Do it by sending Loup through waivers. (He may or may not get claimed. No loss either way.)

Then bring up Teoscar. He should be up anyway.

agreed rpiske - the 8 man pen issue is really simple, despite the attempts to make it sound complicated

the basic issue is that the bottom few spots in the bullpen are entirely fungible. you can swap RP back and forth between mlb and aaa as much as you want. there's no need for an 8 man pen.

The 8 man pen is the right call on a temporary basis as pen as been used extensively. As has been pointed out the existing bench is enough to cover at this time. There is no doubt whatsoever in my mind that Osuna should be a closer, You cannot make someone a starter against his wishes. Only a fool would attempt that. Biagini is where he should be and provides great insurance for the starting rotation.

On the subject of long term deals, I think the 3 pitchers mentioned will all be offered and that something will be worked out with Osuna and Stroman. Being a Boras client, Sanchez will be advised to wait and become a FA. This could result in a trade down the line. Whatever the case, it will be tougher to work out than with the other 2 whom I believe would accept long term deals with the Jays.

Ugly seems to be digging himself in deeper. He says Osuna should be a starter. But he doesn't want him to spend any time in Buffalo. And he says a pitcher can easily go from the bullpen to the rotation. This creates a hilarious scenario in our imagination: Osuna closing games with his two-pitch repertoire for three years, and then one day just suddenly being thrown into the rotation. Why? Because ugly says it can be done. Nobody else in the Jays organization agrees, but a fan argues that it can be easily done.

I called Osuna a two-pitch pitcher, but yes, it's more accurate to say three pitches. He also used a cutter a lot last year, which was a bad decision, and this year he is returning to his traditional mix of fastball, slider, change-up. It's working a lot better.

hehheh.

Osuna has 5 pitches. All of them plus pitches. He uses all of them. He has more pitches than any of our starters other than Stroman.

And no, I don't want him or Biagini wasting innings in buffalo.

"as the pen as been used extensively."

I mean, the opposite is true.

the bullpen ranks 18th in MLB in IP.

the bullpen ranks 27th in MLB in IP/gm.

and they have an off-day tommorrow.

The Indians do list a bit to the left, so it might be useful to have a second left-hander in the pen for the upcoming series. 

Loup is doing fine, unless you expect him to continue to suffer from a .500 babip. I think he's miscast as a lefty-specialist, but he's just fine as a middle reliever.

"Year after year, whenever the Jays temporarily create an 8-man bullpen, the critics oversimplify the issue by portraying it purely as a question of the overall workload of the pen."

Seriously?! Typical, long-winded response that completely ignores the flow of the conversation. You were the one who brought up the issue of a heavy workload and the absence of a 2nd LHP, which is pretty irrelevant when you have relievers like Tepera, Barnes, Oh and Clippard who are tougher on lefties than your actual LHP.

You like to stick to facts. If you're going to claim the Jays need an 8th RP because of a heavy workload (completely untrue) and then claim that there is ZERO benefit to a 4th bench player (even in response to a remark about there being zero need for an 8th RP), expect some push-back.

Carrying 8 RP is justifiable at times. Right now may even be one of those times. But let's not ignore the value of a bonafide basestealer on the bench. And that's what a bench needs: as many diverse weapons as possible. Gift Ngoepe does not help you win games as a pinch-runner. He's an adequate replacement for Diaz/Solarte on the bases, but that's about it.

If Axford doesn't start looking better, the Jays will need a different option than a one-inning guy outside of Gibby's circle of trust. We already know how he treats his 8th RPs. And if he really is looking for a LOOGY-ish guy back there to get lefties out, perhaps Loup should be on the chopping block for Mayza.

The second Tommy John Surgery occurs about 5-7 years after the first, sometimes earlier, sometimes later. Sometimes it’s not an issue again. Starters are a wee bit more likely to be at risk. Roberto Osuna has progressed from a good to a very good to a great to an elite Reliever. Is he Mariano Rivera-good? He’s really close, needs to be very consistent. Maybe, this year will tell.

When Kendrys Morales went on the DL it was thought he’d be back in about two weeks. The decision on who to call up was easy to make. Any Buffalo hitters had at most 3-5 plate appearances since the weather derailed the start of the Season. The Jays don’t need another players who’s not hitting well. Relievers can always stay sharp if they can find somewhere to throw.

Batting order suggestion:

1) Granderson hits for power and get on base frequently
2) Solarte gets on base frequently
3) Smoak plays better than average
4) Donaldson plays average
5) Pearce slugs well.
6) Diaz' hitting returns to ground
7) Maille hits better than Martin

SS Solarte
1B Smoak
RF Granderson
LF Pearce
3B Donalson
C Maille/CF Pillar
CF Pillar/C Martin
2B Travis
9th slot

Agree with Richard,

The call-up is as much about not needing a hitter as it is about needing a pitcher.

Who exactly should we have brought up to hit? Teoscar and Rowdy haven't done anything to merit a call, Alford isn't going to play, and I seem to be the only one here who thinks that Guerrero and (maybe) Bichette are ready today.

Conversely, pitching is always useful. Just because we are in the lower half of the league in IP doesn't mean there isn't value in keeping your relievers fresh. On top of that we may get a game where Gibby can test Mayza out in certain situations- see what he's got if we have to call him up later.

If you need a hitter because of another injury you call one up.

8-man pens are awful but we are seeing them more and more in Toronto (and elsewhere, to be fair). We may see them for a big chunk of this year if they don't find a multi-inning reliever like Biagini to fill a spot in the pen. I wonder where they could find a guy like him?

That's a joke before anyone gets upset.

Ideally they'd trust Tepera/Oh in the 9th with 3 run leads and open up Osuna's usage to get more 4 and 5 out stints from him, but that's unlikely.

Agreed with that 92-93, Osuna, with his starter's repertoire, strikes me as an ideal candidate for the 'relief ace' role. 

Clearly there is a great deal of group-think in baseball, but worth noting that four of the five teams in the AL East currently have 8 man pens.  These guys aren't idiots, so why are they doing this?  My assumption is that it's a combination of expecting  fewer innings for SPs given the 3rd time through the order penalty, and a desire to keep pitchers healthy. 

Worth noting that both Barnes and Tepera had more relief appearances of longer than one inning last year than Biagini did.  The notion that Biagini is the only long relief option is not true.  That said, I continue to think he should be pitching in the majors out of the pen.

Ideally they'd trust Tepera/Oh in the 9th with 3 run leads and open up Osuna's usage to get more 4 and 5 out stints from him, but that's unlikely.

Yep, on both counts. 

How can you not love Curtis Granderson?  Smart, joyous, generous ballplayer (with plenty of skills).  I'll take six of those, please. It looks to me like he might be ready to hit left-handers for the first time.  Bill James said a long time ago (about Jose Cruz Sr.) that maybe one in a thousand players are better at age 37 than at age 27. Granderson was a fine ballplayer at age 27, but I think that he's got a chance to be better (as an offensive player at least).

Have the Jays had more than 1000 players in their history? Because they already had such a player. Tony Fernandez had a MONSTER age 37 season, way better (offensively) than his age 27 season. Mind you, his age 25 and 26 seasons were just slightly better (after positional adjustment, BRef oWar just slightly higher), but for pure hitting, his age 37 season was by far his best..

Fernandez did have the best 2 year run of his career offensively at age 36-37 in 1996-97.   It was, unfortunately, pretty common at that point- Tony Gwynn did pretty much the same and Barry Bonds of course was otherworldly at that age.  There is much that happened between 1994 and 2003 which has to be marked with a mental asterisk- justified or not.  Suffice it to say that more than one in thousand 37 year olds matched their age 27 performance during that period. 

Wow, 92-93 has rejoined us -- with a very long-winded post to complain that my post was too long-winded.

Ugly, you might see Osuna as a five-pitch pitcher, but Osuna himself sees it as three pitches. He knows he is better when he simplifies his repertoire. From an interview with him on March 29, 2018:

"My plan this year is to throw fastball/slider/change-up, same as in 2015."

Way to advance the discourse!

That's why Osuna is awesome. He can make his fastball do all sorts of things. He can sink it, cut it, and when he 4-seams it the batter sees it "rise".

"That's a joke before anyone gets upset."

If we had signatures here I'd make this mine.

Okay, due to the demands that I advance the discourse, I'll add a little more:

92-93 is, as usual, misquoting my argument. He says: "If you're going to claim the Jays need an 8th RP because of a heavy workload..."

My posts have been very clear. I didn't claim that the Jays need "an 8th RP." To suggest that I would want any 8th reliever at all is a complete distortion. I said that, in the current situation, for a few games, the Jays can get value specifically from Tim Mayza because of his specific skills, which -- contrary to 92-93's claim -- are not duplicated by anyone in the current bullpen.

He also misquotes me about the heavy workload. Workload is obviously not the sole reason. I made it clear that the workload is only one of several reasons to add Mayza, and I explained the other reasons.

Osuna can do lots of things with his fastball, but he has learned that he did too many things with it last year, and he has learned to simplify it considerably. In particular, he was using his cutter too much last year, and most analysts have cited that as the reason for his worse performance in 2017. That's why he is relying mainly on two or three pitches this season, and doing much better.

I think that is why we are seeing 8 man pens now more and more.  Extra relievers means the best ones can have more nights off and be used almost exclusively in high pressure situations.  I miss the old days with extra pinch hitters and designated runners and guys who could field but nothing else.  You'd have a reliever who could eat up over 100 innings a year.  Sadly those days are long gone along with the 4 man rotation and 300 IP starters.  The 7 man pen seemed excessive but now it is a small pen.  9 man pens will appear here and there but are still rare.  For now.

To save teams from themselves new rules need to be put in place - relievers must allow at least 1 baserunner before being pulled during an inning (ie: someone reaches base that inning off that reliever).  That would kill off LOOGY and ROOGY pitchers.  It also would stop teams from sending out their starter to begin an inning then pull him before throwing a pitch just so the guy in the pen gets more time to be ready.  If a pitcher is pulled due to 'injury' and it isn't obvious what the injury is when the pitcher hasn't alllowed a baserunner yet then he must go on the 10 day DL.

Travis D'Arnaud diagnosed with a Partial UCL tear - some guys just can't seem to stay healthy - speaking of which, is there any word on when Dalton Pompey will be back.

Last year, with the team playing poorly & no quality alternatives, Travis was given a long lease to find his offense & he did in May, but with the team playing well, a quality alternative & the pressure to win, I wonder how long Travis's lease will be this year & not playing every 3rd game makes it hard to get a streak going.

The Nationals have called up Moises Sierra - didn't know he was still playing.

Andrew Suarez (Jays 2011 9th rd-DNS) making his MLB debut for the Giants following Tyler Beede(Jays 2011 1st rd DNS) recent debut for the Giants - At least, we got Stroman for Breede not signing - wonder if the Jays would have taken Stroman 17th if they had only 1st rd. selection.

yes, he did use it too much last year.

this year, he's using it a much smarter amount of times.

Yr1: 4sm 68.9%, 2sm 3.1%, CT 0.0%, SL 13.9%, CH 14.0%
Yr2: 4sm 61.5%, 2sm 4.8%, CT 3.5%, SL 22.9%, CH 7.3%
Yr3: 4sm 31.3%, 2sm 16.5%, CT 27.0%, SL 20.6%, CH 4.2%
Yr4: 4sm 63.9%, 2sm 4.2%, CT 11.1%, SL 15.3%, CH 5.6%

obviously, the Yr3 mix was off - probably because his velo drop scared him away from the 4 seamer.

Ow, ow, ow!!!  C’mon guys, focus.  Focus.

It’s “leash” you mean, 85 bj, not “lease”  (“a long lease to find his offense”).   Think about it.

And ugly, how in hell can you have an “amount” of “times”  (“a much smarter amount of times.”  Whether smart or dumb,  they're still a number?)   A “number” of times, I can see; an “amount” of times is mush.

Please, guys, stop the hurting here.  It’s baad.

It's baad

Sheep or Michael Jackson, Dewey?

The bench tonight consists of Donaldson, Martin and Travis, as Solarte plays third, Maile catches and Ngoepe plays second.  Pearce is your DH tonight and Grichuk returns to the lineup in right. 

Dewey, I always appreciate reading your editing comments, but might I suggest that you make the switch from two spaces between sentences to one space? The “two spaces” rule is now widely considered to be obsolete.

But, greenfrog, I’m obsolete myself!  I suppose it’s my elderly eyes that dictate the two-space habit.  (And it is a habit:  I’m not conscious of doubling the space.  Just separates one sentence from another more clearly somehow.  Like that.)  In fact, I’m not sure I ever knew it was a’rule’ at all. I’ll try to pay some attention (not a lot) to that matter in future.

9 man pens will appear here and there but are still rare.  For now.

Baltimore and Tampa have been carrying 9 men in their pen because they chose to start with 4  starters.

Travis looks average in defense to me, but he turns the double pays which is really important for this team.
Travis has 15 double plays on the year, the next second baseman has 10.

Replacing the slow Morales with a pinch runner? On the road?
What would be the point of that? That's from people who think stealing bases is not a good strategy, right?

Nobody has pitched in more games than Tepera and Loup has averaged  2 hits per innings so far.
Osuna is second with 5 saves. To bring him to face an extra batter or two would elevate his pitch count and make him less available when he's needed. Just having a decent lefty in the pen will keep an opponent from hitting several lefties in a row. There's no negative to having Mayza here since he's already on the roster. They need to have a look at him, and other Buffalo pitchers, when they can. He's burning an option anyway.

The good side of having a "slave to the save" closer is that the other team knows they're not likely to score in the 9th.
It puts pressure on them.

That was not the usual Marco Estrada game as he doesn’t normally have back-to-back bad innings. Not really knowing any details, is he hurt or is it something else?

I hope if it is his back, they don't let him pitch through it like they did last year. DL for as long as it takes to get him back to the pitcher he is, and in the meantime, it's Biagini time.

The 10-Day D.L. will be a Manager’s greatest asset. No more day-to-day nonsense with mild injuries and bringing a guy back too soon. The Team could have someone fresh/useful up for 7-10 day, and have his regular guy back in 10. Morales is expected back in about two weeks, After tomorrow the Jays play nine straight games and might need the extra arm.

Axford's outings are now resembling Grilli of a year ago, and Storen from 2016. Time to bring up a reliever who can get some outs.

That was a great at bat by Pillar, got screwed by the strike 3 call.

Donaldson couldn't pinch hit for Ngoepe there? He must be really hurt.

Last year, Grilli was trying to close while Osuna was on the shelf. Axford just pitched a mop up inning. Grilli lasted until father's day...

Grilli had a FIP of 7.90. Axford's was 3.23 before the game, and probably improved.

I guess what I meant was that the three of them all seem not to know where the ball was going after throwing it. I've seen all Axford's outings, and from where Martin/Maile are setting up, he's missing badly on most of his pitches. There's nothing more deflating in baseball than a close loss blown by a guy who can't get three outs at the end of a tough game. Right now, the Jays have the rotation and the lineup to compete, it'd be a shame to have to keep running Axford out there in one run games when bullpen options are aplenty.

While he does look bad spiking 1 or 2 throws in the dirt each time he faces a batter, I'm more nervous when Oh is pitching.
His velocity is so low, even a good looking pitch can get hammered.

It takes time to sort things in April and it's been very cold.

Donaldson's shoulder is still not 100% which is why he did not pinch hit yesterday.

Also Estrada's back flared up yesterday mid-game. He hopes its not serious.

The FO's depth will continue to be tested.

The highest OPS+ on the club belongs to Luke Maile.  "Take the load off, Maile" (the Last Waltz version with the Staples Singers) was running through my head yesterday, with the news of Yvonne Staples' passing.  Maile has been an entirely different hitter this year- patiently sifting through pitches and hitting the ball hard.  It's very early, but that applies equally to Maile and Travis and Grichuk. 

Re MikeGrenn on Maille:

Is it about time to move Maille up the order to either 6th or 7th in stead of the 8th he hit last night?
In regards to the equal application of batting improvement, shall Grichuk and Travis hit 9th to take advantage of their on base abilities in front of Granderson in the order?

Here is a tentative order:
RF Granderson
1B Smoak
SS Solarte
LF Pearce
3B Donaldson
CF Pillar
C Maille
8th
2B Travis

Re MikeGrenn on Maille

Green like the colour, Maile not like the Dijon mustard. 

I don't think the batting order matters much.  Maile might get 60 starts this year, and the key thing is for him to get in sync with the pitchers.  

Yesterday would have been a good day to pull Estrada after the 4th.  His back obviously stiffened in the cooler weather. You have a rested 8 man pen after Sanchez' 8 innings on Tuesday and a day off today.  The same logic that had Donaldson not pinch-hitting and Travis and Martin on the bench applied equally well to Estrada. 

198 batters on FG's Leaderboard.

Randall Grichuk

32.6 K%, 179 of 198
BABIP .080, 197 of 198
wRC+ -16, 197 of 198
fWAR -0.5, 196 of 198

And a positive note.

Remember the puzzlement when Gibby first put Solarte in the cleanup spot? There he is, sitting atop the Jays position player fWAR leaderboard.

Maile has been an entirely different hitter this year

I agree. He looked simply overwhelmed last year, like a pitcher batting. He doesn't look that way now. Of course, we're only 15 AB into his season.

Take the load off, Maile

My brain insists on going to Louis Malle. I think I mentioned that to Andre last night at dinner.

As my son's Grade 4 teacher said to his class, "less talk, more rock". 

Last night’s loss is all on Marco Estrada. He should know by now what a twinge in his back means and called Gibby out. He should not have tried to pitch through it, not this year. With everyone but Osuna having a day off the previous game and an off day the next day, the Bullpen was ready to go.

How often does a starting pitcher with a twinge call out a manager to take him out?  Not very.  It's the job of the manager and pitching coach to watch carefully and  ask questions of both pitcher and catcher.  Russell Martin would know that Estrada's back was bothering him, and I'll bet that Maile did too.  And more importantly, Estrada carries himself differently when his back is barking. 

Estrada carries himself differently when his back is barking.

Saw him live in Toronto a couple of years ago. He walked off the field like Tim Conway playing an old man in a Carol Burnett sketch. Mixing metaphors, I think he was calling out for Mrs. Wiggins.

I've seen it a number of times.  You can catch it earlier in the ballpark because you can keep your eye on him after he releases the ball (he'll often stretch when the infielders are tossing around the baseball after an out).   

He can pitch through it sometimes, but I don't see why you would try to let him do that in the conditions of last night's game. 

"Maile has been an entirely different hitter this year- patiently sifting through pitches and hitting the ball hard."

I agree, and looking at Statcast we find that he hit nine balls above 100 all of last season, topping out at 104 twice and 107 once. Yesterday both batted balls were at 107, half of his batted balls have been above 100, and he's topped out at 110 and 109.

His plate discipline stats have improved dramatically as well in the early going. Obviously, it's very early, but Maile has shown a capacity he didn't demonstrate last year.

Every part of Grichuk's .080 BABIP has been well earned. Weak fly ball after weak fly ball. I'm sure someone can think of one but I can't think of a situation where he has hit the ball hard and you could say he has had some bad BABIP luck.

Grichuk is doing an excellent impersonation of the Maile circa 2017.

travis has been worse.

The frightening part of Grichuk's numbers is that his plate discipline this year (which has been awful) is completely in line which his career numbers. He isn't lost at the plate. 30% k rates and 5-6% BB rates are who he is. He looks to be a good corner OF defender though so I guess that represents an improvement over last year.

With that wide crouching stance, Grichuk looks like a sitting duck for pitches up in the zone - his swings are feeble and he looks lost - automatic out, hopeless Ngoepe gives me more confidence.

uo is correct. Travis has been worse.

Thanks for the reminder, Mike...
In regards to Grichuk, numerous posters have expressed their views. I just chip in one bit. Jose Bautista fluorished after 465 PA with the Jays. Can the Jays help turn Grichuk into his prospected peak performance?

Grichuk's OPS numbers the last 3 years are .877, .769 and .758, over a total of 1,270 plate appearances. This year he has 43 plate appearances so far. He's only 26 years old. He didn't just suddenly forget how to hit. He'll be fine.

Yes, Travis has been worse, although I'm not actually sure of his connection to Grichuk. However, Travis' strike zone control problems this year are totally our of whack with career norms.

And, of course, Grichuk is going to starting hitting better. But I honestly can't think of a single successful example, over the long term, of a player who carried such bad strike zone control. It leaves him zero margin for error. A year with .250 BABIP or a drop in power and he's a truly awful offensive player.

Maybe. It’s also worth noting that those OPS numbers are trending the wrong way (albeit with a better second half last year) and that Grichuk is now in the tougher league (and one of the toughest divisions in baseball).

While past performance is usually the best indicator of future performance, it’s not a guarantee of future performance. It could be - just speculating here, no need to hyperventilate - that a player with Grichuk’s plate discipline issues (career BB/K percentages of 5.9/30.0) is more vulnerable than some other prime-age players to cratering earlier than you would otherwise expect. It happened to Arencibia (career BB/K percentages of 5.0/28.7) after his 2011 and 2012 seasons in which he posted wRC+ stats of 91 and 87.

Grichuk is more athletic and a much better defender than Arencibia, of course.

We are definitely reading too much into Grichuk's early-season struggles. His strikeout rate is barely above his career rate, and, according to statcast, his quality of contact is just fine - they have him pegged at an xwoba of .326 right now.

Even if Statcast is wrong, I want to see something more substantial wrong with Grichuk than a low BABIP before consigning him to the dustheap.

Mark Reynolds and Chris Davis come to mind as guys with extended success with K rates that terrible.

But both had light tower power.

And I agree that we should give Grichuk some rope as he isn't a liability defensively. But there's no reason he should be hitting anywhere but 9th in the lineup. Even if Gift and Maille are playing.

Career isolated power:

Davis .243
Grichuk .235
Reynolds .218

Last year:

Donaldson 149wrc+
Smoak 132wrc+
Granderson 105wrc+
Martin 100wrc+
Pearce 99wrc+
Morales 97wrc+
Grichuk 94wrc+
Solarte 93wrc+
Travis 89wrc+
Pillar 85wrc+
Diaz 78wrc+
Tulowitzki 78wrc+
Ngoepe 71wrc+
Maile 0wrc+


Last 3yrs

Donaldson 153wrc+
Granderson 118wrc+
Smoak 115wrc+
Travis 112wrc+
Diaz 111wrc+
Grichuk 109wrc+
Pearce 108wrc+
Solarte 106wrc+
Martin 105wrc+
Morales 104wrc+
Tulowitzki 97wrc+
Pillar 87wrc+
Ngoepe 71wrc+
Maile 27wrc+


Career

Donaldson 141wrc+
Tulowitzki 119wrc+
Granderson 117wrc+
Morales 112wrc+
Diaz 111wrc+
Pearce 110wrc+
Solarte 107wrc+
Martin 106wrc+
Travis 106wrc+
Grichuk 104wrc+
Smoak 103wrc+
Pillar 86wrc+
Ngoepe 51wrc+
Maile 37wrc+



Grichuk is also the youngest hitter on the team.

Isolated Power is often measured as Slugging % - Batting Average %

So having a low batting average actually increases your isolated power. The formula really is a measure for how many of your hits are extra base hits. So if Grichuk had 10 more singles this season, his batting average would be higher but his Isolated Power would be lower. I think that's something everyone would prefer.

There are many players who have Grichuk's (career to date) K and IsoP profile.  Most walk more though.  Chris Davis didn't for quite a few years. 

Grichuk's career OBP of .292 is the problem with two elements- chasing pitches outside the zone (mostly), and not making contact on pitches in the zone (this year).  In Davis' big year (2013), he knocked down his swing rate on out of zone pitches by 5%, while maintaining contact rate in the zone. 

Put another way, if you bat 1.000 with all singles, then your slugging is also 1.000 and so your isolated power is 0.000.

"So having a low batting average actually increases your isolated power."



batting average has no effect on isolated power.

batting average does have a big effect on slugging percentage, though, which is why slugging percentage is not a good stat to measure power.

batting average has no effect on isolated power.

Baseball Prospectus says it does.

batting average does have a big effect on slugging percentage, though, which is why slugging percentage is not a good stat to measure power.

Slugging percentage is in fact a great stat to measure power. It's just not a good stat to measure ISOLATED power, which is why there's a separate stat for isolated power.

slugging percentage is a very poor measure of power, because it includes a massive chunk of non-power.

for example, Avisail Garcia had a better slugging percentage than Encarnacion last year, despite having nowhere remotely close to as much power.

Parker and pubster, this issue is settled among anyone who tries to understand numbers in baseball.

Isolated Power describes what we mean colloquially by power.  Take two seasons: Tony Gwynn 1994 and Chris Davis 2015.  In 1994, Tony Gwynn hit .394 with 35 doubles, 1 triple and 12 homers in 419 at-bats, good for a slugging percentage of .568 and an IsoP of .174.  In 2015, Chris Davis hit .262 with 31 doubles and 47 homers in 573 at-bats for a slugging percentage of .562 and an IsoP of .300.  Baseball fans understand that Davis displayed a lot more power than Gwynn as reflected in the .300 to .174 difference in their IsoP, rather than Gwynn having slightly more power as reflected in his modest "slugging" percentage advantage. 

I am over my head with these numbers. But thanks to all of you.
For me Vlad and D Janssen have that great bb/k ratio. So I see good hitters there.

Davis has seasons of 53, 47, and 38 HRs and once had 26 HRs while hitting .196.

Reynolds has 44 and 37 and somehow had 32 HRs while hitting .198.

While Grichuk's rate stats might approximate those two, that's in part because he hasn't played every day. I suspect that his isoP would come down if he did.

And, as has been pointed out, he hasn't shown the plate discipline of either of my examples.

I'm not suggesting that Grichuk hits ahead of Gift for the entire season, but I am someone who favours meritocracy for batting order. Grichuk has looked lost and should be sorting it out in a low leverage spot in the order.

I think a handful of really bad plate appearances are overstating the matter. Grichuk isn't making as much contact as he normally does, but his plate discipline numbers right now are actually slightly better than his career.

He's always had frustrating at-bats, but I can't see why making a mockery of the batting order to punish Grichuk for a week and a half with a low BABIP makes any sense whatsoever.

Just an aside... don't put your worst hitter 9th.

Put your worst hitter 8th.

This is just (complicated) math.

The Jays now play the Cleveland’s for three games. The Clevelands are not running away with their Division so this could be a good time to play them.

I am over my head with these numbers.

bpoz, this illustrates it pretty well, I think: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isolated_Power

Teoscar Hernandez was pulled early from yesterdays Bisons game. On MLB radio today Gibby said we might see Teoscar "soon". With the off day the Jays could go back to seven relievers or with Grichuk struggling, could we see a switch?

GabrielSyme - I agree with you completely about small sample sizes and I have no doubt that he will hit better.

However, the fact that his strike zone control this year is totally normal for him, just emphasizes the point that he has zero margin for error. Personally, I think it more likely than not that he will be a 4th OF or out of the league within the next couple of years. That view isn't derived from his ABs this year. I just don't see his strike zone control profile working over the longer term.

That view isn't to really criticize the trade. It isn't one I liked but it made some sense. Gambling on him to improve his strike zone control wasn't crazy, nor was the cost high. Hernandez may well have a very similar profile. Its Alford that needs to see the OF in Toronto, if he can ever stay healthy.

"Isolated Power describes what we mean colloquially by power. Take two seasons: Tony Gwynn 1994 and Chris Davis 2015. In 1994, Tony Gwynn hit .394 with 35 doubles, 1 triple and 12 homers in 419 at-bats, good for a slugging percentage of .568 and an IsoP of .174. In 2015, Chris Davis hit .262 with 31 doubles and 47 homers in 573 at-bats for a slugging percentage of .562 and an IsoP of .300. Baseball fans understand that Davis displayed a lot more power than Gwynn as reflected in the .300 to .174 difference in their IsoP, rather than Gwynn having slightly more power as reflected in his modest "slugging" percentage advantage. "

If you go 1 for 10 with a HR then your isolated power is .400 - .100 = .300 (slugging - batting average.)
If you go 4 for 10 with a 2 doubles and 2 singles then your isolated power is: 0.6 - 0.4 = 0.2

Does this mean Grichuk has a lot of power? Or does it mean that he's swinging for the fences too much? As you notice, in my example above, having a low batting average helps isolated power.

Gerry, the answer is yes. We should see Teoscar tonight he's taking bp in Cleveland. I assume Gibby loses the 8th receiver, Mayza.

Yes.  We treat 20 homers as being more significant to "power" than 40 doubles.  If you don't want to do so, be my guest. 

None of this has anything to do with Grichuk's chances of being a good player in 2 or 3 years.  He has real issues, but they have nothing to do with the mechanics of the calculation of IsoP. 

I agree the extra reliever will be lost...but why now? My guess is that an extra bat is needed on the bench because Donaldson can't play.

Mike, my question is "is Grichuk swinging for the fences too much?"

Because if he is it could explain his low batting average and high isolated power.

A guy like Jose Altuve could easily increase his Isolated Power by swinging for the fences every at bat. If he hits 5 more HR but loses 70 points of batting average his ISO probably goes up.

Or it might be that the club has decided that rather than run out a Granderson-Pillar-Pearce outfield when Grichuk sits, they will run out a Granderson-Pillar-Hernandez one?  Makes sense to me from a defensive perspective.  Pearce can get at-bats against lefties in left-field and spelling Smoak at first base, and DHing sometimes.  The Blue Jays face three righties in Cleveland and we'll have a pretty good idea once the lineups are released today.

"Is Grichuk swinging for the fences too much?"

He has had pretty much the same profile since A ball.  He's going to swing hard.  The key for him is to swing at fewer pitches outside the zone.  Not a lot fewer, but enough that he draws 40-50 walks a season.  Some players (Chris Davis is one) are able to achieve those marginal gains in their mid to late 20s. 

Nigel - grichuk has been a productive mlber with those bb/k rates. the jays aren't betting on him improving those rates - he's a good player regardless.

but with zero margin for error, like you say, he's an extremely streaky player.

"A guy like Jose Altuve could easily increase his Isolated Power by swinging for the fences every at bat. "

he might, but i don't think it would be easy. not every power hitter has secret hidde contact skills if they just shorten their swing, and not every contact hitter has secret hidden power if they just swing for the fences.

and trying to change one into the might cost a player his hitting strengths without improving his hitting weaknessss enough to make it worth it.

JD to the DL.  I guess we'll see Solarte at third, and Pearce DHing a fair bit.

"JD to the DL"

Ouch that hurts

My guess is that an extra bat is needed on the bench because Donaldson can't play.

Bingo.

I always thought the "its just a tired shoulder, there's nothing wrong" excuse was BS.

It wasn't tired. It was dead.

It wasn't dead. It was pining for the fjords.

Pearce sitting tonight. Not a fan.

The lineup: Granderson 0 Hernandez 7 Smoak 3 Solarte 5 Martin 2 Pillar 8 Diaz 6 Grichuk 9 Travis 4. 

I wouldn't stick Hernandez into the 2 slot, but otherwise it's a good lineup. It's nice to have Granderson DH fairly often. It's a good time for Grichuk and Travis to find their level.

 

Pearce should get his fair share of starts against right-handers, but with Hernandez up, it makes sense to give Hernandez the occasional start too.

Yes, I always thought the dead arm excuse was BS. Dead arms are not weak. I was watching this documentary called The Walking Dead…

ps: good one, OceanBound!

PININ' for the FJORDS?!?!?!? What kind of talk is that?

Pearce has this problem when he plays too much, silly thing called injuries. Everytime a Team tries to play him full time, he gets hurt. The occasional day off before/after an off day will help more than just him.

It wasn't dead. It was pining for the fjords.

Remarkable bird the Norwegian Blue Jay, beautiful plumage (lest we not forget that JD appeared on the Vikings last season so has honorary Norse blood).

"As you notice, in my example above, having a low batting average helps isolated power"

No, it doesn't. In your example, the player who was 1 for 10 with a HR had an isolated power of .300. OK, let's say he was 9 for 10 with a HR. His isolated power is still .300 (1.200 slugging % minus .900 batting average = .300). No change. A lower batting average doesn't result in a higher isolated power, and a higher average doesn't result in a lower isolated power. Why? Because isolated power is extra bases on hits divided by at bats. Hitting more singles doesn't change that.

The reason the 2nd person in your example had a lower isolated power number of .200 is because he had 2 doubles instead of a home run. Two doubles is 2 extra bases on hits, so divide that by 10 at bats, and you get the .200 isolated power. The 1st player in your example has a home run, which is 3 extra bases on hits, so his isolated power is 3 divided by the 10 at bats, or .300.

A guy like Jose Altuve could easily increase his Isolated Power by swinging for the fences every at bat.

Sure, but why would he? The goal as a hitter isn't to strive for the league's best isolated slugging.

With a name like Donaldson there are pretty good odds he is has more than honorary Viking in his background

True dat. Good call.