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Today is draft day. The Jays pick at number twelve in the first round. In some years the Jays would have a clear picture as to who would be available at this stage of the draft. But this year it seems there are at least six and maybe more names associated with the Jays. Talk amongst yourselves about who the Jays could pick.

The standard answer as to who the Jays will pick is best player available. You generally do not pick for need at the top of the draft. The best player available for the Jays at pick 12 could be a college hitter such as Travis Swaggerty or a high school players such as Matthew Liberatore, Nolan Gorman or Jarred Kelenic. It does appear that the talent is evenly distributed in the middle of the draft so the Jays could go in several directions.
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#359074) #
The FG guys are really high on Swaggerty, despite middling results this year. The comp I've read is Brett Gardner, which would be a pretty good result.
Gerry - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#359075) #
I saw the Fangraphs guys saying earlier that the draft could become clearer after lunch today. Teams are probably talking with player reps about how much it will take to sign them. Once that gets locked down teams can decide.
Craig B - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#359076) #
My general view on strategy for the draft as it is structured now, is that you should go all in on top signings and devote more pool money, if that's what it takes to get things done with the right talent. There are opportunities to "move up" at the top of the draft this way.
Craig B - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#359077) #
I mean PERSONALLY I would want to get Shane McClanahan in this draft, because he's the best lefty (if high risk), but there's nowhere the Jays would necessarily take him because the pick at 12 is possibly too high (and McClanahan wouldn't necessarily let you drop below slot) and the pick at 52 is too low. I never know enough about the real players generally anymore to know who is genuinely good.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#359079) #
Swaggerty would be a good pick, as his talent its this draft slot and he fills a need in the outfield. As far as bats go if nobody else falls I'd prefer Swaggerty, Kelenic and Schnell over Gorman. I'm am more nervous when high school hitters have big swing and miss elements to their game.

As for the pitchers I'd love any of Carter Stewart, Cole Winn or Grayson Rodriguez. It would be intriguing to pair MccLanahan with Pearson as another power pitcher, but I think his control is just too poor to count on. I still think if the Jays do go pitcher I predict they will select Logan Gilbert.
Mike Green - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#359080) #
Swaggerty strikes out an awful lot (that was never a problem for Gardner). Pass from me. 
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#359084) #
Swaggerty had a 13.72 SO% this year which is better than Jonathan India or Joey Bart and a touch worse than Alec Bohm. Im not sure if the swing and miss element to his game is overstated.

Looking up hitting numbers from the college guys and Nick Madrigal struck out only 5 times in his junior season, that guy is special.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#359085) #
Carter, Winn and Rodriguez are all HS RHP's. The bust rate for these guys in the upper first round has been atrocious over the past 10-15 years.

That said, HS pitching is supposedly a strength in the draft this year.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#359087) #
I simply don't like the college pitchers that much for our draft slot, and I would prefer a higher risk profile as long as they have clean deliveries. Carter Stewart's curveball is the best in this draft and he has the highest upside of any player in this draft. If Carter Stewart were in the major rights now his curveball would have the highest spin rate in baseball, just a tick higher than Garret Richards.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#359088) #
Cole Winn sounds very interesting to me. Starts off with a very good fastball that already touches 95/96 with command, then 3 potential plus offspeed pitches.

My gut reaction to Swaggerty is: pass. for a college guy, there seems to be both too many question marks and too few standout skills. His BB/K rates stand out in a good way, but the contact and power and speed look just ok. And if he profiles as a corner OF I'm not sure that turns into a quality MLBer in the end.
Mylegacy - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#359089) #
If I remember correctly, we've got $7 million and change for the draft of which $4(ish) is for our 1st rounder.

If the above is correct, and we draft a Stiff #1 and he doesn't sign that 4 million is down the shi**er and we've 3(ish) for the rest of the draft.

Again, assuming my aged mind's recollection is correct, I'd sign an actual Stiff with our 1st pick for several hundred thousand (pick a guy who's so happy to go #1 in the draft that he'll sign for sure). I'd then have $3.5(ish) BIG left to throw at HS kids who were planning to go to college until we came in and offered them $250,000 to $500,000.

When you pay $3+ million for a #1 pick down at the 12th spot and ALL you're likely to get is, maybe a "reliever," I say spinach.

I remember, in some past drafts we'd sign Stiffs in Rounds 4 to 10. I think its time we tried a Draft giving up on Round 1 as well as Rounds 4 - 10 and throw some serious change at high end, hard to sign, HS kids, later in the Draft and see if we can hit a jackpot or two.

Go big or go home. Just sayin'...
CeeBee - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#359090) #
Except if you don't sign a round 1-round 10 guy you lose that slot money.
Mylegacy - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#359092) #
What I mean is we sign stiff's for pre-arranged, well below slot prices SO we don't lose the money for later in the draft. We've done that before.I'm sure AA's done it. Unless what's left of my brain is failing even worse than I thought it was :).
CeeBee - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#359093) #
Got it! I see your angle.
bpoz - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#359098) #
That is a very good strategy. We have done our scouting already. So get someone good that is willing to sign for $1.5 mil. That is a huge under slot.

Many signed for $1.5mil or less H Danner, J Maese, Bo Bichette.
PeterG - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#359104) #
Danner and Bichette were both well over slot.

I don't like that suggested strategy for the possibility of late rounds picks. It can easily blow up in your face if not signed.

Last year, there were under slots Dillon and Clemens but that was to pay Danner, a 2nd rounder.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#359114) #
Here's a few recaps of previous drafts by AA and Atkins;

AA saved money for the later rounds in 2013 and the result was Tellez.
Danny Jansen was signed in the 16th round, but he didn't get any extra money.
J. Davis and Matt Dermody signed for very little.

Good recaps all-around.

hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#359115) #
Keith Law with his last mock has Jonathan India falling all the way to our 12th pick. He has Stewart picked 8, Swaggerty 9 and Winn 11.
PeterG - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#359117) #
Callis and Mayo at just released their last mocks minutes ago and each are calling Travis Swaggerty to the Jays at 12.
Marlow - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#359119) #
I am surprised that Noah Naylor is projected to go #6 by Callis/Mayo to the Mets. There must be an under slot deal with him.

Too bad the Jays do not consider the prep bats. The Athletic has a story on Jarred Kelenic's work ethic and background, that makes me wish the Jays would pick him instead.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#359121) #
I think Kelenic could easily be the Jays pick yet. The Indians drafted Frazier under Shapiro who is a similar player.
PeterG - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 06:50 PM EDT (#359122) #
Fangraphs now also has India to Jays.

Long time since I have sen this much disagreement this late.

Will be interesting to see who is right.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#359124) #
The slot value bottoms out at 125K after the 10th round. Used to be 100K. Changed last year?

Shoeless Joe - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#359125) #
This was not expected about India potentially being available. I think Alec Bohm and Madrigal are the cream of the college crop, and I worry a little about India's one year breakout season. He should be a plus defensive 3rd basemen though as he played SS through college.
hypobole - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#359126) #
The Jays are supposedly going BPA, including prep bats.

Unfortunately, both FG and Law agree Kelenic will be gone to the Mets at #6.
uglyone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#359130) #
Don't like that fangraphs last mock - Stewart and Winn going directly before us would be a kick in the groin.
Marlow - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#359137) #
It would. But under Shapiro/Atkins, they have a propensity to go after the college/JC arms. They have drafted very few prep arms.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#359155) #
Stroman, Pillar, Travis, Borucki, all college draftees.
ramone - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#359159) #
Welp, not at all who I thought, Jays take Jordan Groshans, BA had him 38th overall on their top 500.
scottt - Monday, June 04 2018 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#359171) #
First hit I found had this.

One scout compared Groshan’s hitter profile to right fielder Matt Holiday. As he fills out and time goes on he will be comparable to Colin Moran or Kris Bryant. Groshan will not be taken as high as Bryant and Moran were but that is mostly due to the fact that those two were drafted out of college.

hypobole - Thursday, June 07 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#359474) #
Posting this here to avoid another massive scroll-down.

The FG duo with their AL recap today. I would replace "think he might sign under slot" with "damn well better sign under slot", but that's me.

"We like Jordan Groshans and, though he’s a little bit of a reach in a vacuum, think he might sign under slot at the 12th pick and allow the Jays to sign his high-school teammate, Adam Kloffenstein (3) over slot, which makes reaching for Groshans, who has huge power, justifiable… Griffin Conine (2) came on strong down late in the college season. He has plus raw power but poor plate coverage… Sean Wymer (4) is a strike-throwing righty from TCU whose stuff is better in two- to three-inning shots… Florida prep SS Addison Barger (6) doesn’t have loud tools, but he can stick in the dirt and hit… Kent State RHP Joey Murray (8) could turn into a Yusmeiro Petit type who makes fringe stuff work due to an invisiball… John Aiello (14) was a famous high schooler who went to school, hit 20 bombs as a sophomore, then did nothing as a junior but still has plus raw power and is alright at third base… UNC RHP Josh Hiatt (16) has a plus splitter but just an average heater and curveball."
bpoz - Thursday, June 07 2018 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#359481) #
2-3 weeks and the short season rookie ball starts.
hypobole - Friday, June 08 2018 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#359533) #
KLaw with his AL draft analysis.

Toronto's draft revolved around a pair of high school teammates who'll likely eat up most of their bonus pool and a potential top-10 pick who fell after a miserable spring. Jordan Groshans (1) was just No. 51 on my big board because of concerns about his swing -- he has very quick hands but doesn't use his lower half much or stay back on the ball, so while he may physically grow into power, his swing isn't geared to take advantage of it just yet. He has played shortstop but projects as an above-average to plus defender at third, with a very strong throwing arm to handle the hot corner. I think he's interesting and offers above-average regular upside or more, but he needs quite a bit of development help.

Griffin Conine (2), son of Mr. Marlin (unless they took that title back too) Jeff Conine, came off a smashing summer on Cape Cod as a lock to go among the top 10 picks, then promptly destroyed the lock by striking out 72 times this spring (a third of his at-bats, 27 percent of plate appearances) for Duke and hitting .278/.402/.611 on the season. It's not his swing, but his approach seemed to fall apart, and, of course, he may have started pressing when the season began so poorly. He has power and had really never struck out on a rate like this previously in his career, so I understand the buy-low idea here. He'll be at least the fifth son of a big leaguer in the Jays' system, along with the sons of Vlad Guerrero, Dante Bichette, Craig Biggio and Roger Clemens, plus the nephew of Mark Grudzielanek. It's a strategy, although I'm not sure it's a good one.

Adam Kloffenstein (3) was Groshans' teammate at Magnolia, a potential second-round pick who'll likely get over slot in the third to buy him away from a scholarship to TCU. The 6-foot-4 right-hander will pitch at 91-94 mph and has flashed even more velocity, with good spin on his breaking ball and some feel for a changeup. There's some violence in his delivery at times, but his timing is good and he seems to extend well toward the plate. He might be far from the majors but has midrotation upside.

Sean Wymer (4) is a 6-foot right-hander from TCU who mostly worked as a starter, showing three fringe-average or below pitches with good control; I don't think he's even a fifth starter unless his arsenal improves in pro ball. Shortstop Addison Barger (6), committed to Florida, has a plus arm and good hands, along with a solid left-handed swing that might lead to some future power. He's a 45 runner at best, probably heading for second base, and when I saw him this spring he had some uncomfortable swings against a lefty. He's good value in the sixth round as a middle infielder with some athleticism and upside with the bat. Notre Dame infielder Nick Podkul (7) has a decent swing for contact without power; he's an average runner whom the Jays listed as a third baseman, but he also played second for the Irish.
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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.