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With this year not going well it is hard not to look to 2019.  Baring trades, who is lined up for each position?  Just offense here.  We can guess at most of their defense.


Who: Age in 2019, salary, details.

Catcher
Russell Martin: 36, $20 mil, last year of contract.  165/317/294 but 0.5 bWAR.
Luke Maile: 28, pre-arb.  241/331/397 0.9 bWAR
Danny Jansen:24, no ML experience, 299/413/474 in AAA
Reese McGuire : 24, no ML experience, 231/326/306 in AAA - might be a good backup someday.
Max Pentecost: 26, no ML experience, 216/264/330 in AA - ah well, looked good when drafted.
Doubt anyone believes Maile will keep those numbers up.  Still, could see all 3 up next year with Martin being a super-sub and Jansen getting a fair amount of DH time.

First Base/DH
Justin Smoak: 32, $6 mil option then free agent.  236/360/424 1.2 bWAR
Kendrys Morales: 36,$12 mil then free agent, 242/310/418 0.1 bWAR
Rowdy Tellez: 24, no ML experience, 252/336/385 - still not ready sigh...

Most players could move here if needed.  A shame Tellez hasn't shown the promise he had a couple years ago.

Second Base
Devon Travis: 28, 2nd year arbitration, 233/282/397 0.1 bWAR
Tim Lopes : 25, AAA no ML, 288/344/366
Cavan Biggio : 24, AA no ML, 278/399/561 also plays 3B/1B
Pretty thin unless Biggio is for real.  Guys at SS/3B and Martin could move here.

Third Base
Yangervis Solarte: 31 signed for 2019/2020 (both options, net value of $13.5 million) 252/308/456 0.8 bWAR
Gio Urshela: 27 pre arb, 233/283/326 -0.3 bWAR - designated for assignment so not really in the picture anymore.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.:20, AA 407/457/667

If Donaldson is gone Solarte will fill in until Vlad is called up.  Gio is no more than a backup.

Shortstop
Troy Tulowitzki : 34, $20 in 2019, $14 mil in 2020, $4 buyout of $14 mil option for 2021 no playing time in 2018 yet, 250/313/414 as a Jay over 3 years 987 PA.
Aledmys Diaz : 28, pre arb, 239/277/402 0.5 bWAR not a bad backup
Bo Bichette : 21, AA, 285/352/458 - not the 400 hitter we saw the last couple of years, but still damn good.

So Tulo is option A, Diaz B with Bichette called up as soon as possible.  Not bad.

Infield
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. : 25,signed through 2023 for roughly $20 mil total, mix of AA/AAA/ML 276/305/442. 2B/SS could probably handle 3B/LF/RF/1B too.


Outfield
LF: Teoscar Hernandez : 26, ML/AAA pre arb 264/307/543
CF: Kevin Pillar: 30, 2nd year arb, free agent post 2020, 242/276/410 1.6 bWAR
RF: Randal Grichuk: 27, 2nd year arb, free agent post 2020, 194/272/448 0.6 bWAR

OF: Dwight Smith: 26, pre-arb, 300/382/533 in 34 PA (so big grain of salt)
OF: Anthony Alford: 24, pre-arb, 143/250/143 in 16 PA
OF: Dalton Pompey: 26, pre-arb, 200/273/200 in 11 PA

I think I covered the usual suspects plus most likely to get a look in spring guys.  Of course, Donaldson being resigned or a free agent coming in or someone being traded changes everything.  Still, I like the depth all around at the moment for 2019. 
2019 hitters/fielders | 17 comments | Create New Account
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whiterasta80 - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#360719) #
1. Qualify Donaldson and/or re-sign him. Failing that ignore 3 and move Solarte here full time

2. Give Vladdy time at 1B when he returns. The bat is going to play everywhere let's make sure its in the lineup every day.

3. Trade Travis at the deadline.

4. Run with Tulo, Diaz, and Solarte until Bo is ready

5. Danny Jansen comes up in late July with the aim of a 50/50 split or greater in 2019.

6. Trade Pillar if you can get anything of value back.

7. Open auditions for the 3rd OF spot for the rest of the year (ideally Alford runs with it).

8. Find some arms because none of the above will matter if we can't keep the ball in the yard. Borucki looks like a good start here.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#360726) #
I wouldn't be surprised if Donaldson's condition is chronic and/or he may need surgery - the FO have the medical info. & if they choose not to sign/QO him, I'm ok with that.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#360727) #
I do find it interesting how many want to trade Pillar lately.  His lifetime figures are 261/299/393 this year: 242/275/407 so a touch more power, less batting average.  10-1 in SB-CS, total zone runs above average per season has him as good as ever (16, peak was 17, worst was 3 last year).  Different defensive metrics will rate him differently of course.    I can see the case that at 29 he will probably start a decline phase in defense and offense as his speed starts to drop (this is normal around 30 for everyone)  He just hit arbitration this year and won't be a free agent until after 2020.  He is probably as valuable as he gets. 

The questions are A) is he worth more to someone else than he is to Toronto? and B) who replaces him if he goes.

A) is a tough one to answer - are there any strong contenders who are weak in CF?
B) is easier - Anthony Alford and Dalton Pompey are both younger and both have good defensive reps (Pompey was viewed as better defensively when both he and Pillar were given their first shots).  Neither has shown an ability to stay healthy or to be offensively competent at a ML level.  So yes, there are potential replacements but no, neither is a guy I'd trust out there.  The guys currently on the roster are OK for a game or two but I sure wouldn't want them out there for 162 games.
Parker - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#360728) #
Grichuk has been an above-average CF so far in his career, as well.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#360730) #
Now that his defense isn't super-elite, and his bat has settled into 80-85 range, it seems to me that his best fit is as a 4th OF.

And we have 4 younger guys in Grichuk, Teoscar, Pompey, and Alford that probably all deserve to play soon, and who can likely hit at least as well as he does....and 3 of them can play CF as well.

And he's turning 30.

I wouldn't mind trading him.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#360732) #
Itís probably too late to get much in return for Pillar. A year and a half ago (after the 2016 season) was probably the time to move him.
85bluejay - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#360733) #
Maybe now that Seattle has moved Dee Gordon to 2B, they can use "Superman" in CF.
aarne13 - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#360735) #
I love Russ but he has fallen off the cliff offensively. He still gets on base but other than that not much else. I'd push him into coaching.
At C I would like to see Maile/Jansen the rest of the way. I'm guessing Martin will be a super-sub, I'm sure at some point he will probably pitch too.

Morales/Smoak/Tellez -> 1B/DH platoon. Tellez has to come up and see if he will sink or swim.

3B- this is reserved for Vladdy jr. Solarte for now, who knows if Donaldson will even play this year. I'd bring him back for cheap to work with Vladdy.

Solarte has heart- I'd play him pretty much anywhere.

Smith Jr>>Alford>Pompey
hypobole - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#360737) #
Don't disagree on Pillar, but Alford (68 wRC+ in AA) likely won't hit as well as Pillar. Maybe in a few years or maybe not.

And Pompey is even more brittle than Tulo. The kid has 158 PA's the past 2 years combined, and 52 of those 158 were rehabbing in Dunedin.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#360742) #
S/B Alford 68 wRC+ in AAA
John Northey - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#360745) #
Yeah, that is the problem.  Pompey is brittle and Alford can't hit.  Heck, neither has shown the bat one would want in AAA or the majors yet and both have spent waaaaay too much time on the DL to feel safe counting on either. 
Grichuk may be solid in CF but right now he is great in RF.  In truth unless someone forces the issue or another team gives the Jays a killer offer I'd keep Pillar in CF.  No rush as he is early arbitration so cheap.  Unless someone makes an offer of an A quality prospect screw it - he does a solid job in CF and no one else is ready to take over yet.

Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#360747) #
I always thought the Giants could use Pillar, as they have trotted out some awful defenders in CF the last few years and they have a big ball park to patrol. They have quite a few pitchers that are near MLB ready as well which would be a nice swap.

However until there are prospects really banging on the door, or really solid offers are made I think the team should hold onto the controllable players. I think everybody wanted Pompey or Alford to be ready to take over CF from Pillar this year, but it just hasn't worked out that way thus far.

At this point is time to try and see how Gurriel Jr looks out in CF? If the plan is to use him as a super sub it might be interesting.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 27 2018 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#360752) #
Angel Perdomo had a great outing today for Dunedin, 5 scoreless with 1 walk and 10 strikeouts.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#360790) #
Pillar was always a weird case because it was unlikely that teams would trade top prospects for defense-only players even when he was elite defensively and cheap, and now he's at a point where he's making real money while he's older and declining in his one elite skill. In other words, I wouldn't expect much in return. I actually wouldn't mind trading him, moving Grichuk over to CF, and giving some of the other OF's on the 40-man a chance, but I always got the sense that they would move him once Alford was ready to take his spot. That's clearly not the case in 2018. On top of that, Pompey is hurt again and DSJ probably isn't good enough defensively anywhere in the outfield. They also might not view Grichuk as a CF defensively.

I mentioned this in another thread, but I think Domingo Santana fits a lot of boxes with this FO. He was recently demoted and the Brewers have a log jam of OF. He hits the ball hard, strikes out a lot, draws a decent amount of walks, has legit power, is only 25, and will either have 3 or 4 years of control left depending on service time (his demotion this year makes that a bit unclear). Maybe they could trade Pillar somewhere and then trade for Santana in a separate deal, or something along those lines, but they'd have to feel comfortable with Grichuk in CF in that scenario.

Regardless, barring any trade deadline moves next month that add 2019 pieces (which may happen), I'd say the 2019 lineup is likely:

CA Martin, 1B Smoak, 2B Travis/Gurriel, SS Tulo/Diaz, 3B Solarte, RF Grichuk, CF Pillar, LF Hernandez, DH Morales

My guess is that lineup will look drastically different by the end of the season (replace Martin with Jansen, Solarte with Vlad, Pillar with Alford, Tulo/Diaz with Bo, etc).
uglyone - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#360791) #
As I suspected, the New "Spending Big Money on RP is actually SMRT" Wave isn't working out so well: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offseason-spending-on-relievers-isnt-working-out/
bpoz - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#360795) #
Thanks UO on the fangraphs RP atricle. Is his conclusion for a few years or just this year (half complete).

His data pertaining to this year, definitely shows that the cheap relievers have outperformed the expensive relievers. In some cases but not all. If someone can produce good and bad value based on length of contract then the FOs around the league would be able to determine more.

Lets assume that W Davis has a 5-7 year contract. To me that is a contract that the fans will start complaining about in 2-3 years unless performance improves. The cheap contracts are 2-3 years in length. Excellent trade chips if owned by a non contender.
hypobole - Thursday, June 28 2018 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#360799) #
It's more like "Spending Big Money on any pitchers" didn't work this offseason. Here's MLBTR's Top 50 FA's.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

How many starters have been worth more than Marco "Half-man Half-toast" Estrada's 1.1 bWAR?

I see 1 (ONE). It ain't Darvish or Arrieta or Lynn or Cobb. Scroll all the way down to #50 - Miles Mikolas.

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