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Joey Bats makes his return as the #BlueJays take on the New York Mets at the Dome.

Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Tuesday at 7:07 pm ET - Zack Wheeler (2-6, 4.47) vs. Marco Estrada (4-7, 4.53)
Wednesday at 7:07 pm ET - Corey Oswalt (0-1, 9.82) vs. Marcus Stroman (1-5, 6.02)

The Mets have lost 10 of 11 but are 1-0 in July after beating Miami in the series finale Sunday. The New York National League baseball club is 33-48, 15 games back of Atlanta in the East.

The Blue Jays are 0-2 in July after settling for a split of a four-game set against Detroit. The 39-45 Jays are 17 games off the pace.
Blue Jays vs. Mets - July 3-4 | 97 comments | Create New Account
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85bluejay - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#361163) #
It's been reported that the Yankees are a leading contender for Happ and while that should be good news because of their stacked system, I'm nervous because under Brian Cashman the Yankees haven't traded away many prospects who became quality players - I remember Mike Lowell & Mark Melancon but that was some time ago and of course Cashman dumped the "can't miss" Jesus Montero on Seattle.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#361165) #
I don't want the Jays to trade with the Yankees precisely for that reason. Cashman never trades any of his good prospects. I am hoping another team gets desperate for an arm and overpays for Happ.
snowman - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#361166) #
Yeah, I was thinking the same. Clint Frazier has been mentioned. He looks pretty good, decent age, good numbers. I don't think I'd complain about him. Not that we're short of outfielders, but it might be time to trade Pillar. Defense might not hold up at age 30, and hitting likely isn't ever going to improve. I just noticed today, he's the WAR leader on the team. I guess about what you'd expect for the kind of season the team has had.
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#361167) #
Interesting, I'd probably prefer guys from lower levels that maybe the Yankees haven't made a conclusive evaluation on - guys like Luis Medina,Raimer Salinas rather than Dillon Tate,Clint Frazier - Shapkins may like Justus Sheffield (as do I) because of their cleveland days but I don't see the Yankees giving him up for Happ.
scottt - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#361168) #
Happ is a free agent. Nothing for the Yankees to gain there once the year is over.
Obviously, the Blue Jays needs to get a top pitching prospect. Or two.
They don't have to be in AAA.
They don't need an outfielder. They're not in a spot where they can take quantity over quality.

The Yankees will have a hard time to hold all their prospects come Rule V season anyway.
I wouldn't want to take anyone they would probably lose anyway.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 06:51 PM EDT (#361171) #
I'm nervous because under Brian Cashman the Yankees haven't traded away many prospects who became quality players
I'm also nervous for that reason. Cashman always knows who to trade.
christaylor - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#361172) #
The number of empty seats at the Dome for Joey Bats' return is mildly embarrassing.
christaylor - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#361173) #
It's not just the Yankees. Most every team has caught on that it is usually a bad bet to trade much prospeect capital for a rental. That... plus the endowment effect. Price was exchanged for what looked like a good haul in 2015. A Happy trade will be less perceived value coming to the Jays than that deal.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#361174) #
The Yankees won't give up Frazier or Sheffield for Happ. Tate might be a possibility depending on how high they are on him, but I'd be surprised if they move any of their top prospects. Another team with a playoff drought or more desperation might cave and give up a better deal, but I wouldn't expect Cashman to fall into that group.

The Yankees generally have to make trades every year because of 40 man roster issues (hence why a lot of their prospects get picked in the Rule 5). They will likely want to move those fringe 40-man roster players first, so it might be better to wait to see if another team gets desperate.

Then again, Estrada out with an injury after the first inning is a cold reminder of what waiting does some times.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#361175) #
so Bautista makes league min, is better than half our team, is still a fan favorite, and is one of the greatest players in team history....

...why isn't he playing for us again?
James W - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#361177) #
...why isn't he playing for us again?

Probably the -1.7 bWAR he put up last year.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#361178) #
...why isn't he playing for us again?

Just a wild guess, but could it possibly have something to do with the -1.7 bWAR, -0.5 fWAR Jose put up last year?

uglyone - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#361180) #
wow. that's like morales-bad.
James W - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#361181) #
Nah, it's a different stratosphere. Morales was only -0.2 bWAR in 2017.
DH - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#361183) #
The market for Happ should be very strong, and shapes up something likes this (farm system ranking in parentheses):

Strong need - Yankees (6), Brewers (17), Phillies (5) Braves (2).

Sure why not - Boston, Nationals, Indians.

Those top 4 matches will make for great competition for Happ... hopefully sooner than later.

mathesond - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#361184) #
Remember when he offereed to play for Toronto for minimum wage?
85bluejay - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#361185) #
Actually, I'd rather we market Marcus Stroman to Phillies/Braves.
scottt - Tuesday, July 03 2018 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#361190) #
Price is worthless in big games, including playoff games. Happ was solid in his game against Houston.
He was solid in the postseason in 16 and won 20 games.

It's not like there's a lot of pitchers available out there.
The Yankees rotation is wafer thin. It would be funny if they don't pony up and Paxton shuts them down in a wild card game.

ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:52 AM EDT (#361193) #
In games where the Mets do not receive a quality start, they have a .408 winning %, which would move them ahead of Miami. In games like tonight where they receive a quality start they are 13-23, a .361 winning %, the worst % for such games in 102 years. Quality starts have put the Mets in last place. Instead of Mickey Calloway getting mad at his relievers, he should have been mad at Zach Wheeler. Pete Palmer called it the Hidden Game of Baseball.
Paul D - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 07:29 AM EDT (#361194) #
85, you've mentioned trading Stroman a few times, and I'm not sure why. Do you just think the return would be that much better for him than anyone else?

To me, he seems like a guy who likes it in Toronto, there are years of control left, and wouldn't have a ton of value at the moment now anyways, so probably makes more sense to hang onto him.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#361195) #
Paul D, Because Stroman has only 2 years before FA during which I don't expect the Jays to be contenders, I'm not big about extending him because I don't see a track record of short RHP aging well - Teams like Atl/Phila looking for a TOR starter know what Stroman can do & I don't think his value is down much & the extra year of him for a pennant drive probably negates any concern, getting a return like Sixto Sanchez / Ian Anderson would line up better with our next window of contention - I'd be in favour of moving Sanchez also if he were having a better year - maybe he goes next July - we need as many assets as possible for our next window of contention because of the failure rate of prospects & the team will also be trading away prospects at that time for proven talent to help the playoff drive.As I've mentioned before, I think the rebuild would have been so much further along if the Jays had moved Donaldson/Osuna etc. last July. I'm about the next window of contention not trying to build an 81 win team and hoping if everything goes right we sneak into the playoffs- everything rarely goes right. That's just my view and I know most take a different approach and that's what makes for a good discussion
rpriske - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#361197) #
Trading Happ makes sense. Trading Pillar makes sense. Trading Granderson, Osuna, Donaldson (if we could get anything), Martin (if we could get anything), Estrada (if we could get anything), all make sense.

Trading Stroman makes ZERO sense.

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#361198) #
"Trading Stroman makes ZERO Sense"

What a definitive statement with capitalized letters and everything - then it must be so!
Jonny German - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#361199) #
Well I'd like to hear more about the lack of track record of short pitchers aging well. Sounds hand-wavy to me, and surely a small sample given the traditional bias against giving short guys a chance.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#361200) #
Indeed, there are countless more examples of big pitchers not aging well.
AWeb - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#361201) #
Running a quick play index check on baseball reference for pitchers since 1961 with more than 500 innings and 75 starts, Stroman is tied for the shortest listed height (68 inches). Only 4 guys are listed under 5'10" (I'm not a subscriber, so I don't know who they are). So yeah, there is basically no sample of guys Stroman's height to generalize from.

I think Bartolo Colon, the current IP active leader, is also the post-1961 leader in inning pitched for guys listed under 6 feet. Sabathia is second in the active IP list. Clearly the key for pitcher longevity is to be fat. Stroman should gain 100 pounds or so...
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#361203) #
I posted "I don't see a track record of short RHP aging well" which is vastly different from saying "there is a track record of short RHP aging poorly"
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 09:33 AM EDT (#361204) #
"Clearly the key for pitcher longevity is to be fat."

David Wells heartily agrees.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 09:37 AM EDT (#361205) #
Indeed, there are countless more examples of big pitchers not aging well.

In that vein, there are countless more example of position players over 6' tall failing than position players under 5' tall.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#361207) #
bpoz - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#361214) #
I just lost a post. Don't know why.

I would never trade a Stroman or Sanchez if we were contending. That is obvious.

The non contending Mets traded D Cone to us in 1992. Yu Darvish and J Verlander traded last year.

With 2 WCs, I ask sincerely why are we not going to contend in 2019 and 2020?
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#361215) #
Anyone notice Colby Rasmus has quit baseball in the middle of the season for the second year in a row?

Got me thinking about AA's picking up players with severe makeup issues. He got them fairly cheap for their talent levels - Yunel, Colby and Lawrie. I would imagine though, with the benefit of hindsight, he wishes he would have dumped them as soon as their value peaked (although Lawrie did help net us Donaldson).
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#361217) #
you can add in Morrow there too, I think. santos too.

The Early AA years saw a lot of those clever talent value pickups....but while they all showed flashes, they all ended up dissappointing.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#361219) #
Don't remember hearing about makeup issues with Morrow or Santos.

The other guy with public makeup issues, i. e. mentioned at the time acquired, was the 2nd round pick (whose name escapes me) who ended up with a bunch of suspensions before we released him.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#361220) #
What attitude issue did Morrow (or Santos) have? Morrow seemed well-liked and I've never heard anything negative about him since his time with Toronto.
Parker - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#361221) #
"The other guy with public makeup issues, i. e. mentioned at the time acquired, was the 2nd round pick (whose name escapes me) who ended up with a bunch of suspensions before we released him."

Clinton Hollon?
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#361222) #
AA did also draft a number of players with off-field issues
Mitchell Taylor,Brandon Mims,Tyler Gonzales,Clinton Hollon are some names I remember - none of them panned out - I had no complaints with taking these risky picks.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#361223) #
Thank, Parker. Remember him coming off one suspension and immediately getting another one.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#361224) #
I'm pretty sure I remember constant controversy in Seattle over whether Morrow should be starting or not, and whether he was injured or not.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#361226) #
And that controversy, to you, is reflective of an attitude problem on Morrow's part?

Does Joe Biagini have makeup issues, as well?
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#361227) #
I think Morrow had the unfortunate combination of a calm demeanor and performance that frustrated relative to the stuff. That frustration can sometimes get confused when fans wonder why a player isn't better. I don't recall anything regarding him being unlikeable, having any work ethic or off-field issues impacting him, or being particularly stubborn and unchangeable (especially remembering that he changed his release point in an effort to get better). Same for Santos, who went from a SS to a pitcher, which I'd think would speak volumes towards his attitude and work ethic. I don't think it's either of their faults that they had injuries.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#361228) #
Thomas, the term used was actually "Make-up Issues", not "Attitude Issues".

and I don't think being an a-hole is the only relevant "make-up issue".
Thomas - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#361229) #
I understand that it's your belief that Morrow has a "makeup" issue. I'm curious on what basis you have reached that conclusion?

hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#361230) #
Yeah, but as Thomas pointed out, the starting/relieving thing had nothing to do with makeup.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#361231) #
If I'm remembering the debate in Seattle at the time, part of that came from the front office rushing him to the majors in the bullpen less than a year after the draft to try to contend (when they probably didn't have the complimentary team). He was very successful for over a year and a half, then went down to stretch out, and and had issues as a starter to end 2008. 2009 didn't go well out of the bullpen, but did pick up a bit when he starrted to close the year. I think I remember a bit of frustration on everyone's part during the bad times, but I can't remember specifically if it was him wanting to be left in a role he had previous success in, or if he wanted to go back to starting, or just felt jerked around, or if those were voices of others, instead.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#361232) #
Honestly I don't think it's controversial.

The Mariners and Jays both seemed to question his mental fortitude. The Mariners, an analytical organization at the time, gave up on him despite his excellent analytics, after years of trying to find him a comfort zone to excel in. The Jays went surprisingly out of their way to say that some of his injuries were not actually detectable physically.

I think it's fairly clear that the Jays were only able to get Morrow in the first place, at age 25 for a reliever, because the Mariners lost confidence in his approach and ability to harness his talent.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#361234) #
The Mariners at the time, with Jack Z, were the polar opposite of analytic.

"The analytically well-versed Blengino, who had worked under Zduriencik in Milwaukee and then in Seattle before being let go in August 2013, claimed to have written "virtually the entire job application package Zduriencik gave the Mariners in 2008, depicting a dual-threat candidate melding traditional scouting with advanced statistical analysis," according to Baker.

“Jack portrayed himself as a scouting/stats hybrid because that’s what he needed to get the job,” Blengino told the Times. “But Jack never has understood one iota about statistical analysis. To this day, he evaluates hitters by homers, RBI and batting average and pitchers by wins and ERA. Statistical analysis was foreign to him. But he knew he needed it to get in the door.”
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#361236) #
I'm not really sure if it's fair to call the Mariners of this era an analytics operation - this was the Bavasi / Zduriencik transition time. Zduriencik came to prominence due to his efforts as a scouting director with the Brewers, and Bavasi was... Ummm... The guy who dealt for Erik Bedard. The best label I'd have for him is as a Legacy, given the prominence his father and brother had in the sport (Buzzie and the familiar Peter, respectively).
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#361237) #
I wouldn't put "management questioning injuries" into the "makeup issues" basket necessarily.  I remember management questioning A.J.Burnett's shoulder injury when he was undergoing active release therapy- that was a management problem, not a player problem.

Brett Lawrie sure.  Delmon Young obviously.  Dick Allen of course.  John Rocker d'oh. Shea Hillebrand yep.  Some semblance of self-control is helpful.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#361238) #
Fair enough on Jack Z's fraud, but hey, Morrow checked all the boxes on the oldskool scouting scale, too.

But they still gave up on him at age 24.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#361239) #
Lets create a word or phrase for pitchers that change drastically once they put a man on base. It seems Morrow and Drabek had that problem. It seemed to lead to a big inning. Lots of pitches and out of the game.

Steib used to glare but was still good when an error was made. Key just shrugged it off the error and got the next guy.
Parker - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#361240) #
"But they still gave up on him at age 24."

Seattle did have a pretty strong rotation going into the season and their bullpen wasn't the greatest. I don't think they were giving up on Morrow so much as trying to upgrade the relief corps from a position of strength in the rotation.

Given how Morrow turned out (part of one great season as a starter, injured and/or below-average otherwise, but a dominant bullpen arm) they might have been better-off just keeping him in the 'pen, but League had shown some dominance as a reliever and the scouts absolutely loved him.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#361241) #
I can see frustrations from changing roles a few times playing a factor, plus the frustration of his tantalizing stuff. There's also a decent chance of "Not my guy" by the new regime being in play. I was just checking to see if Z had a discernable pattern to pitchers he was trading for or trading away, and it seemed to be a pretty wide range on both sides. I will note that he brought in Josh Lueke, so I don't know if he cared that much about makeup (not the off-field sort, anyway). For those that don't know the name, save yourself your lunch and don't look him up.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#361242) #
Jack Z got suckered on Lueke because he didn't do his homework. Lueke was one of the nails in Jack's coffin.

Spifficus - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#361243) #
Ohhhh, that's right. Forgot how that one played out at the time.

Of course, once he found out, he didn't release him, or try to get the trade re-done, so he decided to wear it.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#361244) #
"Lets create a word or phrase for pitchers that change drastically once they put a man on base. It seems Morrow and Drabek had that problem."

Morrow hasn't had that problem for a while now. 206 relievers have pitched 80 innings total the past 3 seasons. Morrow's 84.3% strand rate is 9th best of those 206.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#361245) #
Not sure where to put this, but what do we think the 2019 team is likely to look like? It'll almost certainly be a rebuilding year, and there are going to be significant gaps in the roster. My sense is something along these lines:


FA (maybe Gaviglio)


2-3 FA akin to Oh
Rule V Pick
MILB FA/Waiver Acquisition


C: Jansen/Maile
1B: Smoak
2B: Travis
SS: Tulo/Diaz
3B: Guerrero
Util: Solarte
OF: Teoscar, Grichuk, Alford/Pompey
DH: Morales

That's a very unimpressive pitching staff, and there aren't a lot of options beyond Reid-Foley and Borucki in the system for next year. The lineup could be competitive, though, and there aren't any spots where you'd obviously want to add a free agent (except SS, but hard to see that happening with Tulo still under contract). Travis is on the hot seat, and might have both Biggio and Bichette looking for playing time next year.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#361246) #
I would trade Smoak and Solarte while they still have some value.

and, as always, cut Morales.

And there is some SP depth beyond those names - the AAA staff looks something like Pannone, Zeuch, Harris, Romano next year.
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#361247) #
Spifficus, the easiest thing you can do to get me to immediately look something up online is tell me not ... but there are some very interesting articles about Lueke out there that are directly relevant to Osuna's situation, including one by Stacey May Fowles, who may be the most important voice on sexism within baseball I can think of.  Plus, a blog entry that is powerfully honest and remorseful from the POV of an offender. 

I found both of these to be super relevant right now.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#361248) #
Some of our guys on longer contracts will be on the team next year, and I think Martin & Pillar are more likely to be traded than Smoak or Solarte. But I wouldn't be terribly surprised at any combination.

All those starting pitchers look pretty marginal to me - Zeuch isn't striking anyone out in AA; Romano and Harris have only been marginally successful in AA, and Pannone hasn't shown he's a top prospect since we acquired him a year ago. One might step forward, but none of them look likely to contribute next year, imho.
rpriske - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#361250) #
Preston Guilmet - DFAdTim Mayza - optioned
Luis Santos & Rhiner Cruz - called up
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#361251) #
Guilmet DFA'd
Mayza optioned
Rhiner Cruz, Luis Santos up
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#361253) #
Twin posts at exactly the same time! It's like seeing a unicorn.
Spifficus - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#361254) #
Yeah, I had thought of not mentioning it at all for that very reason. Re-reading it, it isn't quite the same details of what I remembered, but no less cringe-worthy and despicable.

If Osuna is a Lueke-level incident, I don't know how he could be viewed as redeemable at that point - not without a sincere life transformation and many years of contrition and actions against what he was, and he can kindly do that away from the franchise. I'm generally too forgiving with a lot of things (probably more for incidents of absence of consideration or thought), but this... I hope they're not comparable. I wonder what a Lueke incident would get in punishment. I hope it would be a lot more than 75 days.

I am glad I read that second article - that's the kind of life-altering beginning that would need to be undertaken in order to convince me that person felt what they did was wrong, that they actually feel remorse, and that they have made changes in their life that indicate they will not do it again. Of course, Lueke never underwent any kind of ownership or soul searching - that first article makes it sound like this was something that happened TO him more than because of and by him.

Now, please excuse me while I scrub my eyes out with some steel wool.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#361256) #
Gabe I say trade'em all and go cheap. Eat all the money to gain as many prospects back as possible.

Go with a $50m team of this next year + the prospects we get back in trades:

CF Grichuk 27
RF Teoscar 26
LF Pompey 26
3B Gurriel 25
SS Diaz 28
2B Travis 28
1B Guerrero 20
C Jansen 23
DH Smith 26

UT Tellez 24 - Biggio 24
OF Alford 24
IF Urena 23 - Bichette 21
C McGuire 24

SP Stroman 28
SP Sanchez 26
SP Borucki 25
SP Gaviglio 29
SP Zeuch 23
SP Pannone 25
SP Harris 25

RP Osuna 23
RP Tepera 31
RP Biagini 29
RP Barnes 29
RP Mayza 27
scottt - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#361259) #
The things with prospects is that it's not really worth it to trade for C grade ones.
Those guys don't even have much trade value down the road either.

Guilmet was only good for showcasing Pillar's homerun defense.

Rhiner Cruz went on the DL on April 2 and came off it June 10.
He gave up 1 run and 9 Ks in 8.1 innings of relief in Buffalo.
He also gave up 5 walks and 6 hits.

GabrielSyme - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#361262) #

I think it's better for the long-term health of the team not to entirely tank next year - and I don't think the team is willing to eat the whole contract of Tulo, at any rate.

I also think Guerrero is going to start his career at 3B, and he'll have to force his way off the position. He should be able to be competent there for a couple years, and it's probably a good thing for his long-term value. If Guerrero doesn't go to 1B, we don't have any obvious candidates outside Morales and Smoak. I strongly suspect that we keep one of them for 2019.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#361263) #
Low level C prospects are worth trading for.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#361264) #
I was around the ball park a lot when Morrow was here. For the record, everyone connected with the team absolutely raved about his attitude and his work ethic.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 04 2018 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#361265) #
I'd like to hear more about the lack of track record of short pitchers aging well.

That could be tricky. Back in 2014, when Stroman was just appearing on the scene, I pulled a number out of my butt - 325 career starts - and looked at the height of the pitchers who had made that many starts. There were 164 such RH pitchers, and all but 5 of them were were taller than Stroman. The most recent RH starters of Stroman's size to have that size career (roughly 10 years in the rotation) were Dolf Luque (last game 1935) and Bullet Joe Bush (last game 1928).
grjas - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#361267) #
“Gabe I say trade'em all and go cheap. Eat all the money to gain as many prospects back as possible.”

I’m good with that and I’m not sure the team you constructed on paper would be that much worse than the current team. Looking at the list, I think the biggest risk is the RP staff, but the lineup doesn’t look much weaker, and I’m not sure the starters can get much worse. The big loss of course is Happ, but hopefully one of Sanchez or Stroman can make a return to form.
grjas - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 08:21 AM EDT (#361268) #
But yes, absolutely, I would play Guerrero at third.
uglyone - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#361271) #
re: vladdy @3b

1.i don't think him at 3b will ever actually be the best option for the team.
2.even if he can be non-disastrous there in the short term, I don't think he lasts there long-term or even medium term.
3.i'd rather he already be learning and practicing everything about being a 1B, where he has a chance to be a plus defender.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#361272) #
The knee problem seals the deal for me.  I want him off the hot corner so that he stays in the lineup as much as possible.  With a truly great hitter like Delgado, Pujols, Foxx, my preference is to just let 'em hit.  Frankly, I expect Guerrero Jr. and to end up as a DH rather early, and that is absolutely fine.  He might end up as a better hitter than Frank Thomas, impossible as that may sound. 
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#361293) #
As much as some of us would like to see Kendrys Morales gone, it could be worse if we had Chris Davis. On the Baltimore highlights from last night I saw him miss a perfectly playable ground ball leading to a pair of runs scoring. Looking at his stats he is fourth worst among qualified hitters with a -1.0 WAR. ( Dexter Fowler is next,by the way) All this on the second year of a 7 year, 161 million dollar contract.
hypobole - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#361294) #
Really wondering how much Dexter Fowler regrets not taking the (supposed) Jays offer of 4/$64.

His situation was messed up from the start, with him voicing his concern about Trumps travel ban, since his wife in an Iranian born Muslim. More than a few Cards "fans" started attacking him from there on. Once he started slumping the verbal assaults got so bad he and his wife had to delete their twitter accounts.

And now Moseliak just called him out publicly as he was about to go on paternity leave.
jerjapan - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#361295) #
Listening to some random radio show on the FAN, so I dont know who the hosts were, but they had Arden Zwelling on as a guest.  Legitimate discussion around whether Smoak's option gets picked up.  I continue to think it's up in the air.
Then they went on to discuss non-tendering Pillar, which strikes me as crazy talk, so maybe they aren't all that credible   I do find it interesting that others are discussing the possibility of moving on from Smoak though.  But would anyone rule out the Jay's qualifying JD, who accepts, non-tendering Smoak, and playing Morales at first until it's financially viable to call Vlad up to take over?  I do agree with Mike above concerning injury risks, and Ugly about getting Vlad reps at first in the minors.  at this point, I'd rather see Vlad sooner, even if it means giving up on his chances of holding down third.  

Hypobole, that's a disturbing story about Fowler and the fan response.  It's the guys freakin' wife, what do the fans expect?  the 'shut up and play' meme is lame at best, and grossly racist at worst.  sincere question - does 'shut up and play' get applied to white athletes as much as non-whites?  literally every example I can think off the top of my head was directed towards a visible minority. 
John Northey - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#361297) #
For 'shut up' I can think of Shea Hillenbrand for a white example.  Ugh was he annoying.  Only 233 games here (thought he was here longer) with a 108 OPS+, not great for a DH.  Was eventually traded for Jeremy Accardo.

Still, it is rare to see white guys told to shut up vs non-white it seems.  Racism is often subtle and hard to measure but it is there.  With Fowler it is more obvious as he comes out against a Trump policy while being a fairly new guy on a mid-west team.  I mean, that is putting a bullseye on him.  In NY or California or here in Toronto it would've been ignored or cheered.
Spifficus - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#361298) #
Considering Pillar's an average or so player while having his worst offensive year, no, he's not a non-tender candidate. Hopefully Zwelling wasn't agreeing with that, because I'd think he'd know better.

And Smoak is average or a little shy, while his fangraphs baserunning numbers being hit with that anomalously hilariously bad baserunning game back in late April, where he was thrown out at home and third.

I highly doubt they got either right unless things are significantly worse in the second half. I still think they could be traded.
scottt - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#361299) #
Non-tendering Pillar is crazy talk. Even if he hits like Goins, the defense is legit.

For those who think Smoak and Solarte should be traded for prospects, consider the 2017 Mets.
They traded 5 players, Granderson, Bruce, Lucas Duda, Addison Reed and Neal Walker.

They got:
Drew Smith (24 reliever, 3 innings, 1 ER)
Steven Nogosek (23 reliever in A+), Gerson Bautista (24 reliever, 4.1 innings, 6 ER), Jamie Callahan (23 reliever, 6.2 innings, 3 ER)
Ryder Ryan (23 reliever, ERA of 4 as a AA closer)
Eric HanHold (24 reliever, 9 inning pitched in AAA Vegas in middle relief, 9 ER)
Jacob Rhame (25 reliever, 13.1 innings, 10 ER)

scottt - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#361301) #
The counter argument for Vladdy at third is that you want to keep him running and throwing.
He's probably going to bulk even faster if you have him playing 1B and jogging instead of running into outs at third.
He's just 19. You don't want him to slow down.

Also, did he hurt his knee fielding or running to first base?

hypobole - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#361304) #
Consider the 2017 Mets considered themselves contenders in 2018. They certainly seem to have targeted "close to the majors" types.

We should be targeting "don't have to put on the 40 man" types in the low minors.
hypobole - Thursday, July 05 2018 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#361307) #
Since June 9

Phillies 15-7
Braves 12-9
Nationals 5-17

Nats had a team meeting yesterday. They're hosting the Marlins today. The Marlins are leading 7-0 in the 2nd inning.
mathesond - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 01:48 AM EDT (#361314) #
After that game, maybe the Marlins need a team meeting.
scottt - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 06:23 AM EDT (#361317) #
Marlins led 9-0 then lost in the biggest comeback win in Nationals team history.

Maybe the Nats needs pitching?

scottt - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 06:31 AM EDT (#361319) #
I don't think Fowler regrets not taking less money and running out of his country.
But maybe the Cardinals regret outbidding the Jays.
I can imagine some teams prudently not outbidding the Jays for fear of massively overpaying, but I'm not sure if that would be a positive outcome.

scottt - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#361320) #
Gleyber Torres is on the DL with a strained hip. This should even the score a bit with the Jays still without Donaldson.
Chuck - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#361327) #
The counter argument for Vladdy at third is that you want to keep him running and throwing.

Didn't help the Panda. He got good and fat while playing 3B.

I'm with those who would move Vlad sooner rather than later. Get him a pile of reps at 1B in the minors. He can develop those skills in a ramification-free environment and this transition can be used as cover by the brass as an argument to keep him down.

jerjapan - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#361342) #
baseball players are athletes.  The running and throwing from 3rd is not what keeps the vast majority of them slim, it's the hours of exercise and training they do daily.  If that doesn't keep Panda or Vlad thin, frankly, nothing will.

85bluejay - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#361345) #
Would love to see the Jays get their hands on Byron Buxton and try to fix his bat - potentially 4 years of control.
jerjapan - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#361347) #
agreed 85.  You've got a good eye for value acquisitions IMO, I generally agree with your targets immediately. 

I do feel that we need need pitching.  any value pitching acquisitions you've got your eye on?  I personally think the most value is FAs from overseas, so an offseason thing, but Mikolas?  man.  we need to be signing more players out of Japan.
I lived in Japan for years, obviously I think, and one of the fun parts about Japanese baseball (which is hugely, hugely fun)

grjas - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#361354) #
I wouldn’t move Vladdie unless he shows he can’t play 3B. He’s only 19 and worrying about injuries at this point seems premature. I get moving Delgado as the stress and strains on a catcher are significant, but Pujols spent a few years in the field and expect Vladdie can do the same.
85bluejay - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#361357) #
The Yankees are said to want shore up 1B for this season - I wonder what they would say to Justin Smoak for Greg Bird whom I think they may have soured on.
scottt - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#361361) #
The Yanks would probably not trade him in the division unless there is something seriously wrong with him.
scottt - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#361363) #
Whatever hours of exercise and training Smoak and Morales go through daily probably doesn't involve a lot of sprinting.

Is Panda a good comparable? He was producing positive defensive numbers at third base as late as 27 year of age.
Troy Glaus was another big third baseman. 6'5" 220#

I just think the sooner Guerrero moves to first base, the sooner he moves to DH.

Spifficus - Friday, July 06 2018 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#361366) #
I also wouldn't move Guerrero off 3B at this point, especially since it sounds like he's made a lot of improvements this year.

As for Smoak to NYY, that's what I was thinking yesterday when I was talking about his option. I'm more seeing a Happ and Smoak (+$$) deal, though, to improve the return.
85bluejay - Saturday, July 07 2018 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#361392) #
Adding Smoak as a sweetener works for me also - here's hoping Bird continues to suck for the next while.
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