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The #BlueJays continue their road trip with a stop in Beantown. #LetsGoBlueJays

Series Schedule / Probable Starters

Monday at 7:10 pm - Thornton vs. Porcello
Tuesday at 7:10 pm - TBA vs. Cashner
Wednesday at 7:10 pm - Sanchez vs. Rodriguez
Thursday at 1:05 pm - TBA vs. Sale

Boston is 50-43 on the season and are 10 games back of the New York Yankees for first place and four back of second place Tampa Bay in the American League East. In a classic case of bad timing, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the BoSox twice in Fenway Park over the weekend when they could have used those wins instead during last year's World Series. The Dodgers won the finale in 12 innings Sunday.

The 35-59 Blue Jays could not seal the deal in the Bronx Zoo, losing the rubber match of their three-game set Sunday afternoon. It appears Jacob Waguespack and Sean Reid-Foley will start Tuesday and Thursday with an outside chance of Patrick Murphy getting the call-up. Clayton Richard landed on the IL with a left lat strain.

Of note, Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith writes about the feasibility of a possible reunion between the Jays and the Edwing.
Jays @ Red Sox - July 15-17 | 146 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Gerry - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#377151) #
I am aware of the big difference between AAA money and major league money and the difference it makes for marginal guys. The major leagues pay around US$3,000 per day. When a player gets called up for a day, or two, he makes $3k to $6k. If he can stick he makes more. But sometimes players make more for other reasons. I often wonder what difference some of these roster decisions makes to a player.

For example, just before the all-star break there was some roster movement. Thomas Pannone was called up for a day, then Jonathan Davis was called up for two, but it was Justin Shafer who got the final call before the all-star break. Shafer earned an extra $15,000 by being on the roster for those five days around the all-star break. Pannone might have thought he could get that money, then Davis did, but Shafer won out.

I assume all of these guys need the money. I don't know their personal situations but an extra $15,000 means a lot to many AAA players.

Earlier in the season Jacob Waguespack was called up for what seemed like a spot start but then he went on the IL. Waguespack was on the IL for 35 days, that's $105,000. Nice money if you can get it.

In the past, players have been known to get a sore arm or shoulder just before they are scheduled to go to the minors, just to stay in the major leagues. I am not casting any doubts to Waguespack, but it happens.
Cracka - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#377152) #
Minor leaguers earn just under $500 per game. It's a 620% increase in pay in MLB vs. AAA. A simple solution would be to pay all guys on the 40-man roster at the MLB minimum, negating the financial impact of being called up. It would probably cost at least $6-$7M per team, which obviously is the reason why isn't not currently happening.

Magpie - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#377153) #
Yup. I'm pretty sure the most money Dirk Hayhurst made from baseball was the full season (2010) that he spent on the Toronto DL. Same with Davis Romero (2007).
jerjapan - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#377154) #
Interesting comments.  You could certainly put a 40 man roster salary minimum at, say, 100K, which would help - I think it's about 40K for 40 man guys right now, which is still more than the daily pay the minor leaguers get.  

Cracka, where did you get the $500 / game number?  I feel like that number is too high for anyone but the better minor league FAs, most guys in the minors are working for less than minimum wage and living below the poverty line unless they got a big bonus 

Every time a Luciano or a Romano gets drafted in the rule V, I can't help but think of the pressure that must put on them to stick, especially the guys who got a minimal signing bonus.   I'm happy for the Hayhursts and the Lucianos getting paid, but to me the real solution is to pay minor leaguers a living wage - you could base it on their level, it has always felt odd to me that guys in AAA make only a few thousand dollars more per season than a rookie leaguer. 

Even with our 50% across the board pay raise for minor leaguers, these guys are being robbed.  Not NCAA robbed, but close to it. 
dan gordon - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#377156) #
$500 a game would be $65,000 for a 130 game season. The vast majority of minor leaguers are making way less than that.
Cracka - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#377157) #
The $500/day is based on the MLB CBA minimum salary of $89,500 for minor leaguers who are part of MLBPA, i.e. on the 40-man roster and have at least one day of MLB service (e.g. guys like Pannone & Davis). If you're on the 40-man roster but have never played in the MLB, it's about half that amount. For non-MLBPA minor leaguers, which is almost everyone, the minimum salaries are usually much, much lower. AAA is $2700/month, or ~$100/day. Rookie Ball is $1200/month or ~$40/day, which is really sad.
uglyone - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#377158) #
Rotation after Stroman is traded:

Thornton 20gs, 5.25era
Sanchez 20gs, 6.22era
Kingham 4gs, 9.77era
Jackson 5gs, 11.90era
Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#377159) #
The rotation is disgusting no doubt, but I do think Thorton is better than the last few starts heís had against Boston. Hopefully Borucki makes it here sooner than later.

Billy McKinney really improved on his plate discipline in AAA and I hope he has a strong second half. I still think he can be a good left handed side of a platoon.
greenfrog - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 08:31 PM EDT (#377160) #
Silly uglyone, using stats like ERA to assess player value instead of advanced Jays metrics like annualsalary$
hypobole - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#377161) #
using stats like ERA to assess player value instead of advanced Jays metrics like annualsalary$

Tulo, Morales and Martin agree on this.
Nigel - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#377162) #
Serious question not trying to be snarky. What makes you optimistic about Thornton as a starter? He looks like a slightly better version of Biagini to me. He might be a useful high leverage reliever though with his k%.
Nigel - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#377163) #
BTW calling someone a slightly better version of Biagini isnít a huge insult to me. I know people want to run Biagini out of town but heís a serviceable mid leverage reliever with zero acquisition cost.
Magpie - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#377164) #
I know people want to run Biagini out of town

I feel I should step up and take a bow. After all, I am the guy who wrote at the end of last year that whatever uniform Biagini is wearing this year, he'll probably be saying "want fries with that?"

He's retrieved some of what he'd lost. He hasn't been useless, he hasn't even been bad. But further than that, I can not go. And neither should anyone else, at this point!
Shoeless Joe - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#377165) #
In his 3 innings against Boston he has given up 12 runs, I am not sure if he was tipping his pitches or they were stealing signs but Boston would be the sort of team to take advantage of a younger pitcher doing that. I think that's something that can be corrected, and for the season his off-speed pitches have been better than I expected to go along with 91st percentile spin rates on his fastball and breaking ball.

Nigel - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#377166) #
Thanks. I definitely understand the appeal of the spin rate on the FB. Itís a definite plus. We probably part company on the consistency of his secondaries. My problem is that heís almost 26 and his minor league stats suggest his k% is likely to regress a little (while his bb% should improve) in which case he screams reliever to me.

Magpie - no need to take a bullet for your dismissal of Biagini. Iíve had an irrational (maybe rational) dislike of several Jays over the years, starting with Alvis Woods right through Teoscar Hernandez (yes, there is a theme there).
Gerry - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#377167) #
Lourdes has really cooled off recently.
Magpie - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#377168) #
Biagini, after two years when he was Indescribably Awful is in most respects all the way back to his 2016 form. When he was actually good. The K rate is the same, the Hits allowed is the same, the BB allowed is up, but it's still one of his strengths. It's the HRs allowed that keeps him from being good, and it must be admitted that his ability to keep the ball in the park in 2016 looks like a fluke at this point. But he was able to do it in the minors, and if he can get it just a little under control...
Magpie - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#377169) #
I seem to recall reading somewhere recently that in 2019 relief pitchers are actually allowing more runs than starting pitchers. It's not true in the AL, at least not at this moment - but I also seem to remember a few starting pitchers getting beaten senseless and bloody these last few days. But it's certainly closer than it's ever been before. The more relief pitchers we see, the less effective they are. And yes, I should have done Runs Allowed rather than ERA, but it's too late now.

       Relief ERA Starter ERA  Relief IP %
2019 -     4.46    4.64          42.8% 
2018 - 4.09 4.39 40.9%
2017 - 4.11 4.54 38.2%
2016 - 3.84 4.42 36.1%
2015 - 3.75 4.14 34.5%
2014 - 3.63 3.92 33.9%
To which, all I can think of saying is - what's the point of all this relief pitching? I think the general idea used to be that Starters provide Quantity and Relievers provide Quality. I don't know what the hell we have now.
John Northey - Monday, July 15 2019 @ 11:34 PM EDT (#377170) #
Well, relievers are getting messed up due to the opener/headliner thing. Neat concept at first but really is being overused.
AWeb - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 07:20 AM EDT (#377172) #
As teams strive for efficiency over entertainment value, we should expect that relievers and starters end up with the same ERA, give or take. The proper conclusion from relievers constantly outperforming starters is that more should be asked from relievers until that isn't the case any more. Openers might mess up the numbers a bit, but I've seen summaries earlier in the season that accounted for them and the conclusion was the same. Same goes for the ever increasing use of position players at the end of games. Starters should be able to do better with fewer innings as well, for the same reason relievers do - throwing harder and fewer batters seeing them multiple times. The better-carrying baseball is making that hard to see though. I predict it'll be basically even between starters and relievers every year unless a major rule change throws it off.

Rosters now consist only of players who are going to get into games pretty frequently, both position players and pitchers. Even someone like Luciano, who was on the roster only because they want to keep him long enough to demote him next year, was pitching a couple of times a week. It helped (?) that the team is getting blown out so much he had lots of low-leverage chances of course. The terrible position players on the roster this year like Brito, Hansen, Davis, Tellez, McKinney, Hernandez, Drury (my goodness what a pile of crap the position players have been this year, possible future potential or no) get a lot of playing time when they are on the 25-man roster - there's 1000 PAs so far for that group. The pitching is a similarly bleak thing. I'm starting to think this might not be the Jays' year, you know?
scottt - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#377173) #
Keeping the ball in the park is mostly luck.
That's why FIP is not a good predictor.

Also, the juiced ball happened.
Fly balls are traveling further than in 2016.

scottt - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 07:33 AM EDT (#377174) #
And by that you mean that the opener is counted as a starter and that the mainliner is counted as a reliever? I can see that messing up the stats, but I don't agree on the overused part.

It's not the job of the coaches and manager to keep the stats tidy.

The opener is just a tandem start. The novelty is to use a one inning guy to start the game.
That's not always optimal. You have to use the pitchers you have.
Some guys can only go one inning. Some guys can go one through the order.
Others have splits and should be used accordingly.

scottt - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 07:42 AM EDT (#377175) #
The pitching looks bad because the rotation is in shambles.
It's not like the leagues is loaded with ace pitching.
Here's yesterday's scoreboard:

Giants 19 Rockies 2
Dodgers 16 Phillies 2
Angels 9, Astros 6
Cards 7, Pirates 0
Cleveland 8, Tigers 6
Reds 6, Club 3
Royals 5, Whitesox 2
Rays 5, Yankees 4
Braves 4, Brewers 2
Giants 2, Rockies 1 (I guess the hitters were exhausted after the first game.)

If anything, there should be high demand for Giles and Hudson.

scottt - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#377176) #
Gaviglio was worse than Thornton.
At some point, all the infielders were on the mount and Galvis was explaining something.
The Red Sox are notorious sign stealers, so it could be that.

Can E-Jax be OK in the pen?
I'm not sure. He wasn't locating at all.

Law is just a place holder for someone who needs to be on the 40 this fall.
That's how I look at him.

Sogard went 3 for 5. He just needs to stay hot another 2 weeks.
2 hits for Galvis. I think he's more like a winter trade.
I'd swap one year of Galvis with some salary relief for a 4th starter on his last year. Something like that.
Gurriel is ice cold, 0 for 5. Grichuk seems to be warming up.
Mckinney looked good. Jansen is still on the ball.
Smoak broke out of a long drought, but still just 1 for 5.

Davidi's piece on bringing back EE next year is weird.
A DH isn't what they need. They are already hitting tons of homeruns.
They need more bases, but not from extra slow guys who can't score from second.
I'd like to see a bit more hustle.
They are sorta running out those infield ground balls, but not really.
They run harder on singles in the outfield, because they'd like to turn them into doubles.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 09:17 AM EDT (#377177) #
"The pitching looks bad because the rotation is in shambles"

uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#377178) #
I do remember our FO so proudly talking about how important all their new mlb-ready starting depth would be, now that I think about it.
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#377179) #
I agree Scottt on the Davidi article. EE would only clog up the DH/1st base positions. The Yankees will probably exercise his option anyway for next year -- it's only money. I'd rather have a versatile veteran like Sogard around who is reportedly a great teammate and can play multiple positions.

By the way, nobody commented on the picture for this article. There must be some Leaf fans like me here. Brad Marchand crying after losing in the Stanley Cup final game ---niiice !
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#377180) #
One other thing - I don't know how many here watched the game last night but at one point either Pat or Buck commented on Billy McKinney's observations of Bo Bichette when he was down in Buffalo. He said that Bichette played all out on every play and worked hard even in practice. That was nice to hear, but even more telling to me was Buck's comment on this which was along the lines of " Well, shouldn't every player be doing this though ?" It sounded like he wasn't that impressed with the effort some current MLB players put out.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#377181) #
I definitely appreciated that game thread photo.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#377182) #
The pitching looks bad because the rotation is in shambles

And when Stroman becomes Astroman, then the team will have exactly zero competent, healthy starting pitchers. That shouldn't be too hard to fix.

dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#377183) #
Rotation after Stroman is traded:

Thornton 20gs, 5.25era
Sanchez 20gs, 6.22era
Kingham 4gs, 9.77era
Jackson 5gs, 11.90era

I can't take your post seriously unless you mean the Bisons rotation. SRF, Pannone, Zeuch, Borucki, Merryweather will all be in a rotation over Kingham and Sanchez. Then of course there's the little idea that maybe....maybe....we get pitching in return for Stroman and Giles.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#377185) #
Thornton and Sanchez will probably stay in the rotation. SRF and Borucki are the most likely adds. Then Waguespack or Pannone for the other spot.
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#377187) #
Iím really having trouble understanding the logic in trading Stroman. Seems like itís a step backward in any rebuild of less than two years. Also, it includes a risk. Any starting pitching close enough to major league ready that would help the Jays is unlikely to be forfeited.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#377188) #
career as SP:

Borucki 3.87era (AAA: 3.17)
R-Foley 5.31era (AAA: 4.91)
Pannone 6.18era (AAA: 3.70)
Paulino 7.03era (AAA: 4.22)
Zeuch --------- (AAA: 4.09)
Merryweather --- (AA: 6.58)
uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#377189) #
Waguespack: ------ (AAA: 5.14)
hypobole - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#377191) #
Rather obvious we're not contending this year. We won't contend next year with or without Marcus. So waste of a very good pitcher.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#377192) #
career as SP:
Borucki 3.87era (AAA: 3.17)
R-Foley 5.31era (AAA: 4.91)
Pannone 6.18era (AAA: 3.70)
Paulino 7.03era (AAA: 4.22)
Zeuch --------- (AAA: 4.09)
Merryweather --- (AA: 6.58)
Waguespack: ------ (AAA: 5.14)

Drive that tank, boys!
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#377193) #
The post deadline rotation is probably going to be Sanchez, Thornton, and some combination of Borucki, Pannone, SRF, and Waguespack. I believe Paulino is hurt again, and Merryweather hasn't pitched in a couple of weeks so he may have had a setback as well. Zeuch isn't on the 40 man roster, and his K rate in AAA is horrendous. Other options on the 40 man are Murphy, Diaz, and Perez, but all three are still in AA. They should get promoted to AAA fairly soon. Of course as mentioned if the Jays get a big league ready SP in a trade return, then that's another option.

This is going to be a bad rotation regardless, but if nothing else it will be younger with at least some upside, even though I suspect most of the rotation options will be relievers long-term (SRF in particular).
uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#377194) #
replacing a very good 28yr old with middling 25-26yr olds isn't a real step in the "younger and more upside" department.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#377195) #
And when Stroman becomes Astroman

I was glad that it was Astroman rather than aStroman.  The latter would not help a pitcher's confidence, while the former might. 
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#377196) #
Seems illogical that a competitive team would trade a MLB ready pitcher. Going forward to the 2020 season the rotation continues to look dismal. Is management hoping to fill out a rotation from the above listed prospects? Even if one from that list turns into a viable starter, and management purchases a free agent, there will be two or three holes to fill once Stroman is gone. And thatís just 5 starters. More will be needed.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#377197) #
Younger and more upside than Edwin Jackson, Richard, Buchholz, etc, not Stroman. I think it's pretty clear no one in the system save for Pearson will be able to replace him any time soon.
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#377198) #
There might be one or two starters in the above list, but there also might be none.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#377199) #
Younger and more upside than Edwin Jackson, Richard, Buchholz

You've just described half the people at this forum.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#377200) #
Roster if they trade everyone they want to trade:

OF Grichuk 27
OF Teoscar 26
OF Gurriel 25
3B Vladdy 20
SS Galvis 29
2B Bichette 21
1B Biggio 24
DH McKinney 24
C Jansen 24

UT Tellez 24 - Brito 26
OF Pompey 26 - Davis 27
IF Drury 26 - Hanson 26
C Maile 28

x - Alford 24, McGuire 24, Urena 23

SP Borucki 25
SP Thornton 25
SP Sanchez 26
SP Pannone 25
SP Paulino 25

RP Biagini 29
RP Gaviglio 29
RP Mayza 27
RP Shafer 26
RP Romano 26
RP Kingham 27
RP Waguespack 25

X SRF 23, Zeuch 23, Tice 22
uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#377201) #
x - Pearson 22
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#377202) #
For what it's worth, my 2020 rotation candidates assuming no moves are made:

1. Stroman
2. Shoemaker
3. Pearson
4. Borucki
5.. Murphy
6. Thornton
7. Reid-Foley
8. Pannone

The latter 4 are in no particular order.  I don't consider this to be a particularly eight to start from, and I don't concur at all with the view that 2020 is a lost cause.  In my view, it is only so if the club decides to not make the effort.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#377203) #
I really admire Atkins in the way he talks to the media. He never puts down a player when talking. He knows that many players are struggling. By not mentioning that word/concept he is not denying anything. For example T Hernandez is having trouble this year ... Atkin's is being positive in saying that he has made progress in learning CF.

I don't remember Atkin's speaking proudly about the pitching acquisitions, but then my memory is bad. He should have sounded "pleased" rather than "proud" because I understand proud as better than pleased so that leaves some leeway to go up. It is a minor thing. So far into the season proud is more accurate than pleased because we have needed and used a lot of pitchers. I will not bother to count because the number is changing on a weekly basis it seems.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#377204) #
"replacing a very good 28yr old with middling 25-26yr olds isn't a real step in the "younger and more upside" department."

Let's wait to see if they actually trade Stroman. I'll bet you dollars to donuts that if he's traded they get pitching prospects back that can be plugged into an MLB rotation right now or next year. Latest rumour is that Carlos Martinez from St. Louis is available in trades.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#377205) #
Regarding the 2020 rotation, every team adds depth pieces. Atkins is very good at adding depth. I always feel that you need 8 SPs in a season. It is best that a team should have more options.

By the way the acquisition of Richard upset me because I thought that Borucki would be out. He needed a regular turn in the rotation for further development. Stroman, Sanchez, Shoemaker and Richard only makes 4 so it was my counting that was troublesome.

I has SRF as close to ready. I was wrong. I also did not think much of Thornton. I was wrong. Zeuch ready after 15 AAA starts because I was very impressed by his AA performance. Especially being the Ace of the playoffs. Wrong again.

Atkins was prepared/preparing for pitching problems.
Cracka - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#377206) #
Iím really having trouble understanding the logic in trading Stroman. Seems like itís a step backward in any rebuild of less than two years.

If they trade him, that will be a good indication that the rebuild period is >2 years, which certainly seems likely. But otherwise I agree, I think Stroman will be an above-average starter for at least 2-3 more seasons and maybe more (though someone very recently created a good list of comparables, and it was NOT flattering for Stroman). What I have trouble with is trying to estimate how much money it would take for Stroman to sign an extension and forego free agency. As we all know, he's uber confident in his own abilities... hard to see him taking a discount over what the market would give him... which is probably at least a 6 year deal (like Cueto & Lester) and maybe even a 7 year deal (like Price) at $25M-ish per year. So maybe $160-$175M guaranteed to stay in Toronto? I'm not even sure if he'd take that vs. betting on himself continuing to get better and asking for $30M+/year after 2020.
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#377207) #
Not sure Iím well informed enough to understand exactly how the Jays lineup became such a dogís breakfast without good hope going forward. There are probably several important causes including:
1. The belief, by Aitkins and Shapiro that the Jays could be rebuilt in the same fashion as was used in Cleveland.
2. Corporate financial restrictions placed on the budget by Rogers.
3. Lack of development of key prospects. (Particularly Guerrero Jr.)

Best hope, IMHO, is that the management team learns from #1 above and pivots to building on the strengths the team has and bringing in players who will be competitive in the American League East.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#377208) #
Mike - I think that's a sensible ranking of the current in-house options for 2020. The problem with the list is that its unrealistic to think that no. 2,3 and 4 will all be able to give you very many innings in 2020. I'm not sure whether I would take the over or the under on 300 innings combined from those three (probably the under at this point). With no. 5, 6, 7 and 8 there are significant questions about whether any of those pitchers is a major league pitcher and, if so, can any of them be anything other than a reliever. This team is short more than one or two additional pitchers.
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#377209) #
Hard to tell what Stroman might want for a contract since Aitkins seemed to have no interest in exploring said contract. Stroman has worts but he can pitch in the American League East, and heís the only starter who can, as of now.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#377210) #
You've just described half the people at this forum.

Chuckie throwin a strike. :)
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#377211) #
Nigel, if you get 300 innings out of those 3 (I think that the figure is a little low- probably more like 375) and 360-400 from Stroman and a free agent, you have the basis for a pretty good rotation.  The key point is that you have a decent chance of getting about 500-550 good innings from the first 4.  There's a lot more talent there than in Oakland's 2019 rotation, for instance. 
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#377212) #
"Not sure Iím well informed enough to understand exactly how the Jays lineup became such a dogís breakfast without good hope going forward. There are probably several important causes including:

1. The belief, by Aitkins and Shapiro that the Jays could be rebuilt in the same fashion as was used in Cleveland.
2. Corporate financial restrictions placed on the budget by Rogers.
3. Lack of development of key prospects. (Particularly Guerrero Jr.)

Best hope, IMHO, is that the management team learns from #1 above and pivots to building on the strengths the team has and bringing in players who will be competitive in the American League East."

Pin this post.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#377213) #
There's absolutely a chance that you could get 375 innings out of Shoemaker, Borucki and Pearson next year (maybe even more) but that's banking on both Borucki being healthy (ish) and Pearson being in Toronto at the start of next year (or in early May of next year). Neither of which seem like obvious bets to me. Pearson is doing everything you'd hope from a top prospect in his first full season but he isn't dominating AA yet (he's doing well - don't get me wrong) and he's only likely to throw around 80-90 innings or so this year. I actually think the most likely arrival for Pearson in Toronto is the end of 2020 with an earlier call up only if the team is somehow in contention next year.
Gerry - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#377214) #
Edwin Jackson pitched three innings last night and today he is DFA'd to make room for Waguespack.
hypobole - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#377215) #
1. The belief, by Aitkins and Shapiro that the Jays could be rebuilt in the same fashion as was used in Cleveland.

What exactly was the Cleveland fashion?
hypobole - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#377216) #
Edwin Jackson, going out in a blaze of glory!
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#377217) #
Hypobole. Shapiro and Aitkins had some success in Cleveland by bringing in major league players who could consistently compete in the Central Division. The trove of players brought onto the Jays 40 man roster through trades in the past two years are examples of players who could have aspired to some level of success in the Central. Those players have less chance of being successful, let alone competitive, in the East. Should I create a list? Itís quite long.
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#377218) #
Has there been an announcement of EJs replacement?
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#377219) #
The biggest variable to me is Guerrero Jr.  He's been a negative fWAR player so far.  He is certainly capable of being an MVP candidate at any time, or he might flame out.  Youneverknow.  If they move him to first base expeditiously, they're more likely to get the first outcome, in my view. 
Cracka - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#377220) #
I wonder if there would be mutual interest in having Jackson back on a minor-league deal with Buffalo. The Jays are paying him the league minimum anyway, and Jackson seems to want to keep pitching... or is getting DFA'ed by this Jays team a sign to hang up the cleats?

SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#377221) #
I agree Mike. I expect Vlad to hit either way, but I think the moment he moves to first base, he will explode offensively. Just a hunch.
Nigel - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#377222) #
I think the biggest variable is going to be what Rogers does this offseason. I think the team this year has been worse than expected and the revenue generating impact of that is likely worse than expected. I'm not sure Rogers will be up for another 90+ loss season and drawing 10k for weekday games. I really think they value mediocrity as the baseline. Of course, there's a few ways they could react - spend to try and improve the team, slash to run the team as a small market club or do nothing and pray that the youth will improve quickly enough to make this a .500(ish) team next year. I have no idea what they are likely to do.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#377223) #
Re Guerrero and his less than dazzling rookie season... here are the rookie seasons of other players who started very young. This doesn't guarantee that Guerrero will make the same year-two jumps these guys did, but it is worth keeping these rookie seasons in mind.

  • Rodriguez, age 19, 149 PA, 72 OPS+
  • Griffey, age 19, 506 PA, 108 OPS+
  • Trout, age 19, 135 PA, 89 OPS+
  • Cabrera, age 20, 314 PA, 106 OPS+
  • Bonds, age 21, 484 PA, 103 OPS+
Chuck - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#377224) #
This is interesting (to me, at least). The Jays' pitching is 0.3 R/G worse than average. Their offense is 0.6 R/G worse than average.

My gut would have told me that the defense would have been performing more poorly than the offense.

Nigel - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#377225) #
Chuck - thatís recency bias at play. The delta against the league on the run prevention side of things is going to get worse. Maybe a lot worse.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#377226) #
Chuck - thatís recency bias at play.

Fair enough. I am also not following the team day by day, so that adds to my bias as well.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#377227) #
The offence was brutal early, but has been exactly league average (100 wRC+) both June and July.

As for Vlad, moving him to 1st won't stop pitchers from throwing him high fastballs and down and away breaking balls. I know the broadcast the other day mentioned he's hitting below the Mendoza line vs high fastballs, the other is just my observations.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#377229) #
This is interesting (to me, at least). The Jays' pitching is 0.3 R/G worse than average. Their offense is 0.6 R/G worse than average.

Oh not to me. Until recently, the Jays offense had been completely atrocious all year. Like right near the bottom of the AL in many categories. Even with the surge the last couple weeks before the All Star Break, I'm surprised they're only 0.6 runs/game worse than average.
Thomas - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#377230) #
Krose, I believe it's Waguespack, who is starting tonight.
Cracka - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#377231) #
There's still an open spot on the 40-man roster though... Bo Bichette has now played 44 games in AAA; Biggio played 43; Vlady played 39. Just saying...
Magpie - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#377232) #
I understand that even a young fellow like Biggio can use a day off from time to time. I notice that Rodriguez is pitching tomorrow and Price on Thursday. I dunno, I guess he'd want to rest up for that.
krose - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#377234) #
Little confrontation in the dugout. Smoak hit a home run. When he came into the dugout Guerrero threw spits at him. Smoak grabbed his dreadlocks and Guerrero threw more spits at him. Smoak gave him a shove and a real dirty look.
lexomatic - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:01 PM EDT (#377235) #
What about a confrontation?

I guess Cashner is only "good" vs the Jays with Baltimore?
uglyone - Tuesday, July 16 2019 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#377236) #
phelps looks like he's earning some trade value.

hudson a wee bit too.
scottt - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 07:09 AM EDT (#377242) #
We got Phelps for another year. I don't think anyone is ready to pay for 2 years of Phelps.
I'd want a pretty good prospect for that.

Hudson is a free agent. He's the one they should move.

scottt - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 07:11 AM EDT (#377243) #
Nobody was throwing seeds when Hernandez was down.
I don't know why that resumed when he came back up.

Chuck - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 07:35 AM EDT (#377244) #
Nobody was throwing seeds when Hernandez was down.

I thought I saw Tellez and Guerrero continuing the "tradition".

hypobole - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 08:04 AM EDT (#377246) #
So I've been mulling over yesterday's discussions.
To summarize:
4/5 of our rotation is bad - most will end up in the pen.
Our offence is worse than our pitching. Top prospects not progressing.
Rogers is cheap and won't pay to win.
The FO is incompetent.
If we keep Stro, we could contend next year!

hypobole - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#377248) #
Quite the good, bad, good and bad, and ugly in the baserunning department last night.
2 triples! I love triples. Who doesn't love triples?
Gurriel steals 2nd and takes one off the noggin.
Teoscar gets picked off and makes it to 3rd on an errant throw.
Gurriel totally misreading a line drive and getting doubled off 2nd.
Danny neglecting to retouch second on a flyout and getting doubled off.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#377249) #
On the subject of baserunning, I can't remember the last time Luis Rivera's name was mentioned here. That has to be a good thing.
krose - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#377250) #
Good summary Hypo; although a tad black and white. I may have had an extra shot of caffeine yesterday morning.
krose - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#377251) #
Kaitlyn McGrath has a good article on expectations for VGJ at the Athletic this morning. Most of the coaches talk only in generalities about what theyíd like to see from Vladdy in the second half. But John Schneider has some specific suggestions.

ďI think just having a little bit better command of the strike zone and what pitches he wants to attack would be huge for him and I think his numbers would soar.

ďOn top of that, continuing to work defensively, continue to develop as a third baseman, as a major-league third baseman. And being a good teammate.Ē
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#377252) #
The offence has been averaging 5.5 runs per game from game 82 on. Nonetheless, the club is 7-8 during this time and my chances of getting BG posts all off-season from hypobole have (sadly) declined.

Magpie's oblique criticism of Montoyo's decision to rest Biggio against a righty with two lefty starters following is fair.  Montoyo has done this a couple of times- he is quite reactive so far in his rookie season. In this case,  Biggio has hit a rough patch, but moving from having him hit cleanup to taking him out of the lineup against a RH starter doesn't make sense.  Rookie jitters can afflict managers as well as players, I guess.

UO commented about Hudson and Phelps.  Their contract status is very different.  Hudson's contract expires this year and he's a reasonable candidate to be dealt at the deadline.  The Jays have an option at $1 million for Phelps for 2020.  He's probably worth more to them than to a contender.
DH - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#377253) #
I agree with you, Mike, re Phelps being kept. Though if I remember correctly his option has a ladder to it. Rosenthal noted the ladder as follows: the option is worth $1 million if Phelps appears in ďfewer than 30 gamesĒ, $3 million if he appears in between 30 and 39 games, $5 million if he appears in between 40 and 49, $7 million dollars if appears in more than 50 but finishes fewer than 40, and $8 million if he appears in more than 50 games and finishes over 40 games.

For his sake, let's assume he gets $3million next year.

And assuming Giles is gone in the next 14 days, he has a good chance to take over at the end of the game.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#377254) #
I found Nigel's comment thought provoking about what Rogers would do in response to a potential revenue crushing 2020. Another 90+ loss season.

I have always had a hard time understanding the position player criticism. Tellez is a good example that helped me understand. He has V good Hr and rbi numbers but his OBP is under 300 so it is bad. He is not the only one with an OBP under 300. That would be the cutoff I guess. My conclusion is that he needs more ABs to see if he/they can improve.

With the eventual addition of Bichette the position player young core does not get changed much. We suffer through their growing pains.

The pitching is V bad. Should get weaker if/when Stroman and Giles are traded.

You can throw money at FA pitching for improvement. TB did that with C Morton. He is their best SP so far and I don't think he took a discount to sign with them.

C Morton is outstanding this year and has done well the past 2 years. I don't know if he got a QO and that cost TB a draft pick. I think not. If Rogers is willing and the FO can find 1 or 2 of these FA signings then we have a potential strong rotation next year.

Sorry about so many IFs but the off season started to take shape during the Detroit series. IMO.

Mike Green - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#377255) #
Thank you, DH.  I now recall that too. 
uglyone - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#377259) #
I would think Phelps option makes him more tradeable not less, No?
Gerry - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#377262) #
Jays picked up Wilmer Font from the Mets for cash.
JohnL - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#377264) #
Good move, picking up Wilmer Font.
Don't know anything about him, but it's a great name to have on the roster.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#377265) #
I also see Phelps being the closer after Giles is traded (if he's healthy).
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#377267) #
Exactly two weeks to the deadline, really wish at least some movement would start.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#377268) #
Wilmer Font acquired for cash considerations from Mets. A warm body to fill up the rotation once Stroman and or Sanchez are gone? I mention Sanchez only because Jeff Passon recently mentioned that teams have strong interest in him as a reliever.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#377269) #
I don't really see any team giving up anything of real value for Sanchez.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#377270) #
I didn't think we would get any value back for Liriano or Diaz and Sanchez has a much higher ceiling than either. Jays will be able to get something back for Sanchez...even if they sell extremely low the floor on a return is probably similar to Liriano or Diaz at least a Teoscar or Thornton...
krose - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#377271) #
Wilmer should be a big help in building toward competitiveness with the NLCentral teams.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#377272) #
I have doubts that Sanchez is traded.
jerjapan - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#377273) #
Someone is going to be willing to take a flier on Sanchez as a reliever.  I don't get why we haven't started using him in that role though, to better demonstrate his value.  I guess it's the utter lack of starters, and I'd still rather keep the guy to rebuild his value.

Font is only going to make it more painful for our young pitchers on the Buffalo shuttle who naively may think that results matter.  He, Law, Luciano and likely Kingham wouldn't have nearly 100 big league appearances combined this year if not for roster manipulations. 

Any chance Font gets a chance at the rotation?  A lot of smart organizations have seen something in the guy.  What's the corresponding roster move?
rpriske - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#377277) #
I have previously watched Wilmer Font pitch in person.

In Ottawa.

In the Can-Am League.

Nigel - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#377278) #
Getting a number 2 starter for cash is a helluva trade. Thumbs up!
scottt - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#377284) #
Wilmer Font is an interesting guy.

He was a Ranger prospect who threw 98mph but he blew his elbow and was out of MLB quickly.
Then he pitched 2  years for the Ottawa Champions.
In the middle of the second year, Atkins signed him and he had a decent showing at New Hampsire and Buffalo, but this was in 2016, when the Jays rotation was exceptionally healthy and he never got a chance.

The next year he signed with the Dodgers and had a breakout season in the PCL.
He had 5 games with 10 or more strikeouts and stroke out 15 in his best effort.
Then he was called up ahead of their best pitching prospect, but he had ups and down.
He's been traded a few times since, so there is no shortage of interest.

He throws a four seamer, a curve, a slider and a splitter.
I think he's around 94mph these days.

scottt - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#377286) #
In other news, the White Sox have recalled Ryan Goins who has been raking at AAA this year.

John Northey - Wednesday, July 17 2019 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#377289) #
Wow, had to check as 'Goins' and 'raking' only makes me think of leaves. But there he is hitting 322/406/531 in AAA (International League so not a Vegas illusion). Weird. Would love it if he keeps it up in the majors but I expect in the end he'll have an OPS+ in the 60's.
Magpie - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 01:22 AM EDT (#377291) #
Goins made his MLB season debut tonight, batting ninth and playing short. He went 2-3, with a two-run homer.

Cats and dogs, living together? I don't know.
scottt - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 06:13 AM EDT (#377294) #
Never been inspired by Goins in the box, but I wish him the best.
He's never made more than the minimum with the Jays, but a good 2 months here and somebody might actually pay him over the winter.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#377297) #
I saw a stat last weekend that said Mike Trout, over the previous 7 days had an OPS of 1.857. He looks like a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer at age 27. By the way, the California Angels picked Trout 25th in the 2009 MLB draft with a compensation pick for the Yankees signing Mark Texeira. They also had the 24th pick as compensation and chose -- Randal Grichuk.
Magpie - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#377300) #
At some point during last night's game, I started thinking it might be time to update The Suckage Index (originally dreamed of here back in 2007, and updated here in 2013.) Gosh, where does my inspiration come from? So I started copying and pasting the season pitching lines from bb-ref for the last few years into the Special Database of Jays pitching seasons. I was briefly flummoxed when the new columns didn't line up with the old ones - bb-ref didn't include FIP back in the day, but I fought through these difficulties, and I'm ready to answer the question on everyone's mind.

What about Aaron? Could he have displaced the immortal Mark Lemongello and earned a spot on the worst 15 seasons ever?

Not yet. He's working on it, though. His Suckage Index score of 816 is truly putrid, but Lemongello's non-performance scored 913 on the Suckage Meter. So as of this very moment Sanchez has merely provided the 21st worst season ever by a Toronto pitcher, nestled squarely between Luke Prokopec (2002) and Pat Hentgen (2004.)  But he's still got plenty of time.

This exercise in misanthropy will clearly need to be formally updated once the season is over. I would certainly want to mention that Drew Hutchison's 2015 season - you know, when he went 13-5 - came this close to bumping Lemongello from the Bottom 15.

Nevertheless, Lemongello has indeed been bumped from the Bottom 15, and in truly remarkable fashion. In just 28.1 IP, Edwin Jackson rang up a Suckage Score of 1096, ninth worst Jays season ever. It's simply incredible that he was able to have achieved so much badness in so little time.

The Wonderfulness Index, alas, will not need to be updated. (You probably knew that already.)  The best season by a Jays pitcher since 2014 (by this bizarre measurement)  is Marcus Stroman's 2017 campaign, which comes in 20th. The top 15 remains 4 Stieb seasons, 4 Halladay seasons, 2 from Clemens, and 1 appearance each from Key, Hentgen, Guzman, Eichhorn, and Romero.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 09:07 AM EDT (#377302) #
In just 28.1 IP, Edwin Jackson rang up a Suckage Score of 1096, ninth worst Jays season ever. It's simply incredible that he was able to have achieved so much badness in so little time.

Incredible it is.  It actually illustrates a problem with "replacement value".  Replacement value assumes that teams are actually trying to win.  And now more than ever that cannot be assumed.  Edwin Jackson was pretty clearly a less capable pitcher than almost the entire Buffalo rotation, but the club preferred to let him pitch simply for the convenience and because they did not really care whether they won or lost. 
bpoz - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#377303) #
Thanks Magpie.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#377304) #
Thomas Pannone is listed as the starter for today's game on MLB's website. 
bpoz - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#377305) #
Regarding pitching. Zeuch has thrown 80-103 pitches in his last 5 starts. Borucki 80 and 83 pitches. That is promising to me. Quantity, not necessarily quality. So they were handled well in their recovery. This gives me hope regarding Pearson's health.

Chuck - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#377306) #
It actually illustrates a problem with "replacement value".

Does it really though? The point of replacement value is to establish a baseline for the purposes of measuring a pitcher's performance in terms of delta from that baseline. I get that replacement level is theoretical -- not all organizations can summon a 0-WAR player at will -- but in the sake of the Jays, they almost surely could.

Jackson has obviously been well below replacement level, as were Brito and Hanson. They were all allowed to play to buy time, to give younger guys more experience in the minors, even if the expectation was never that they would even perform at a replacement level (because, as you said, the team doesn't care about winning at this point).

I am sure I am missing your bigger point on this.

85bluejay - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#377307) #
Who's the all time biggest prospect bust?
Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#377308) #
You're right, Chuck.  I need to explain what I mean more thoroughly.

Baseball Reference and Fangraphs set replacement level at a .294 winning percentage in March 2013 after a meeting to arrive at an agreement.  I cannot find an explanation for the logic for this figure.  BBRef however does have a helpful explanation for how the adjustment from average to replacement is done for particular players here.  The description includes this:

"Now, for some leagues the competition was not that good, so the replacement runs multiplier will be smaller because the average player is worse relative to the replacement player. However, this is really only a case when looking at pre-World War I seasons and the World War II seasons. For example, we view the average player in the 1884 Union Association (the weakest major league by a wide margin) as a replacement level player, so the multiplier is zero for that league."

and this:

"Fine-Tuning Replacement Level

After we make a first pass through the calculations, we determine how the league's current total WAR differs from the desired overall league WAR. We then add or subtract fractional replacement runs from each player's runs_replacement total based on their playing time, and recompute WAR_rep with this adjustment included."

Lack of competitiveness causes the difference between average and replacement to shrink- more innings and PAs are actually used by players like Jackson, Brito and Hansen because more teams are indifferent whether they win or lose.  We are not at the 1884 Union Association level by any stretch, but the adjustments (aka fine-tuning) are likely to be larger this year. 

bpoz - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#377309) #
Sil Campusano busted big time.
uglyone - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:05 PM EDT (#377310) #
Kingham DFAd. Pannone up.

Borucki will start for the jays on Sunday or Monday.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#377311) #
Kingham DFAd. Pannone up.

Borucki will start for the jays on Sunday or Monday.

The BGs are taking a step forward in their quest to finish above .500 for the second half.  Next up: Bo Bichette.  Finally, will Teoscar change his name to Bernandez and consolidate his gains? 
hypobole - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#377312) #
I don't remember all the details of the 2014 trade deadline, but the Jays finished July 10 games over .500. AA caught heat from a lot of fans (and Jose Bautista) by standing pat.

Giants are the Jays major competitors as far as the major deadline assets. Will Smith/Giles, MadBum/Stro. The big difference being those 2 Giants are pure rentals.

Now they've reeled off 12 wins in their last 14 and are only 2 1/2 games back of the WC. What will they do? What should they do?
bpoz - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#377313) #
Teoscar has been good the last little while. HRs and that throw to get the runner at 2B last night. He is looking good.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#377314) #
This Sports Illustrated article on Roy Halladay is worth reading.  The story reminds me a bit of Andre Agassi's book Open, even down to the southwest connection.
bpoz - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#377315) #
Any pitching that cannot be traded Stroman/Giles/Hudson can just be kept rather than given away so someone can advance further in the playoffs or even make the playoffs.

A good return for us and then see Stroman dominate in the playoffs. Rather than someones extras for Stroman.

Verlander 2017 hero and Price 2018 hero. Price went head to head against Verlander and won. Twice I think.
Nigel - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#377316) #
I hesitate to venture this because its from memory, which, at my age, is definitely going on the fritz from time to time, but I thought that the replacement level winning percentage was arrived at by looking at the winning percentages of the worst teams in the history of baseball (including expansion teams etc.). What I don't know is whether that review included all of baseball history or a more modern period.

Mike, your point seems logical in the context that we are currently going through a period where there is significant competitive imbalance. That competitive imbalance is probably worse than its been for most of the last 40 years, but I'm not sure the current competitive imbalance is worse than it was in the 20's through 60's (for example).

Anyway, Kingham wasn't terrible but I couldn't see much there that was particularly interesting.
Nigel - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#377317) #
hypobole - your question about SF was the exact one I was thinking about last night. Buck and Pat were all over the issue with Pat saying that SF needed to empty the bucket to boost this years team because Bochy is retiring at the end of the year. I texted this debate to my diehard Giants fan who lives in SF. His read of the local market is that they want no part of a "last gasp, going for it". The market knows the team is literally miles behind LA in the talent department and that there isn't any point to adding at the deadline. Whether ownership feels that way is a different story.
hypobole - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#377319) #
Nigel, I'm reading the comment section in the latest Athletic Giants. Few calls for buying, but the majority view don't believe in selling either. The article itself believes some relief assets can be sold, including Smith, and the team could still compete for the playoffs. Zaidi knows selling is best for the future, ownership probably wants to compete with what they have.

Will be a tough call whatever they do and it will make some people very unhappy.
Magpie - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#377320) #
Who's the all time biggest prospect bust?

The Jays have never had the first overall pick in the draft, but they have had the second pick three times. They got Lloyd Moseby with one of those picks but twice they used the second overall pick on someone who would never play a single game in the majors: Garry Harris, a high school shortstop from California (1980) and Augie Schmidt, also a shortstop from University of New Orleans (1982).
hypobole - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#377321) #
"A game" Sale + Jays hitters = short work.

He's nasty today.
pubster - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#377322) #
So why did the Jays take Deck McGuire over Chris Sale?

Did they really watch them both pitch and think McGuire was better?
Marc Hulet - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#377323) #
Teams were concerned about Sale's mechanics and many thought he was a reliever long term.

At some point Pannone will be useful pitcher when the Jays cap him at 2-3 innings. He can't go through any lineup three times. Two is also a stretch.
scottt - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#377335) #
McGuire signed for 2M and Sale for 1.6M and then signed a team friendly extension.
bpoz - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#377336) #
Sale had the 97 mph FB and is left handed. Did not seem to be good enough.
John Northey - Thursday, July 18 2019 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#377339) #
Biggest prospect bust? First name to mind was Sil Campusano who the Jays were so high on that they tried to move the MVP for 1987 to DH and their All-Star in CF to LF to make room for him before he played a single game in the majors. Ended up with a 0.0 WAR and just 262 PA in the majors. After getting hits in his first 2 ML games he went 0 for 15, then 3 for 9 before not playing for 2 weeks (can't recall why). He played in 52 more games before being sent down going 229/299/343 over 119 PA. A September call-up got him 6 more PA with 2 hits and a HBP and that was the end of his Blue Jays career.

This Jays team finished just 2 games back. Have to think the fooling around with a guy who had no place in the majors hurt - especially since he took playing time from Bell (108 OPS+), Moseby (100), and Barfield (102 OPS+), top bench OF was Rick Leach (94 OPS+) while Rob Ducey (120 OPS+ in 63 PA at age 23) was left in the minors to rot most of the season. Jimy Williams kept the Jays from being a bigger dynasty without a doubt.
scottt - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 03:23 AM EDT (#377343) #
The Jays didn't use Jackson, Brito and Hansen because they are indifferent to winning or losing.
They are just 2 types of replacement players used while prospects show they are ready.
Technically, Sogard is another replacement player who surprised by being better than any GM predicted.
Now Brito and Hansen are 2 top 100 prospects who haven't been able to produce before running out of options. Hansen had a good year in A ball and made it as far as 62 and 66 on BA and BP's lists. Not sure why, actually. Jackson is a vet who still has good stuff and velocity, but hasn't been able to command his pitches this year. That's unusual for a pitcher. Usually, they lose velocity and try to compensate with more breaking stuff like Buchholz or Sabbathia.

scottt - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 03:27 AM EDT (#377344) #
Kingham hasn't been terrible with the Jays and will probably find a home somewhere.
He was a replacement pitcher and so is Font.
Font has visa issue and will report later.
I have no idea why they are keeping Law.

scottt - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 06:48 AM EDT (#377349) #
We're going to miss Boyd. That's too bad. Would have been interesting to watch him.
Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#377353) #
Sogard and Jackson were roughly in the same place entering 2019, with Sogard a better player over the previous 3 years.  But then Sogard hit in triple A and kept hitting in the big leagues.  Jackson was terrible in triple A and immediately got the call to the majors where it was perfectly obvious that he was not able to pitch at a major league level any more.  The club had better options in triple A, but chose to not use them because they really did not care whether they won or lost.

Pannone had driven in from Buffalo prior to yesterday's game in Boston.  Asking him to go 3rd time through the Boston lineup was asking for trouble.
scottt - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#377355) #
Actually, Sogard didn't hit at AAA. He was hiting .267 in Buffalo and Urena was hitting over .300 when they swapped them. Sogard walked in AAA, though. 7 hits, 7 walks and 4 strikeouts. 2 doubles and 1 homerun in 9 games didn't mean anything for a guy who has never been known for his power either.
Sogard probably  had some good ABs in Buffalo.

Nothing is obvious with Jackson, the guy has thrown a no-hitter, he's been an all-star and he has a ring.
He had an ERA of 3.33 over 17 starts in the AL West last year. He could top that next  year.
Pitch command is not like a loss of velocity. Some guys lose it forever, like Ricky Romero, but most of the time it comes and goes. Jackson gave up 8 walks and had 22 Ks in  18 innings the minors. With the Jays, 13 walks and 19 Ks in 28 innings. If he could have duplicated the BB and K rates, he would have been fine.

Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#377357) #
Batting average, scottt?  Really?  We were discussing replacement value, a sabermetric concept.  As you know, it uses sabermetric views of offence and pitching. 
scottt - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#377382) #
Sabermetric over a 9 game span in AAA?

You evaluate Sogard for his career in the MLB, not his 2 weeks in Buffalo.
Clearly, he's always been replacement level, usually sitting between 0 and 1 WAR.
He's currently on target for a 3+ WAR year. That's fueled by 2 things.
More power, he has 10 HR, his previous high was 3.

He didn't win  a job out of spring training but was called up early in the season.
I don't think it's his results in Buffalo that got him up.
I think they liked the way he was playing. Taking pitches, fouling pitches, having long AB, coaching other players on the bench, that sort of thing.
Mike Green - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#377384) #
From 2013-18, Sogard generated 4.5 bWAR in 1550 PAs.  That's 0.9 WAR/310 PAs or 1.9 WAR/650.  He wasn't a replacement level player before.  He had fluctuations, but he was a good substitute and those players are not freely available. 
dan gordon - Friday, July 19 2019 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#377387) #
Sogard must have made some kind of adjustment or change to his approach after he missed the 2016 season due to injury. He had 3 seasons before that where he had a fairly large amount of playing time, 2013-2015. In those 3 seasons, he produced 3.5 bWAR in the equivalent of 2 full seasons, or 1.75 per year. Then he missed 2016, and came back to play about half a season in 2017, and so far, half a season in 2019, missing most of 2018 due to injury. In 2017, he produced 1.9 bWAR in half a season, a rate of 3.8 for a full season. So far in 2019, he has again produced 1.9 bWAR in half a season, or 3.8 for a full year. He has gone from being a 1.75 WAR player to a 3.8 WAR player. This year is more from the hitting than in 2017, when he was a positive defensive player.

He's much, much better than most people realize. Give the Blue Jays full credit for signing him - he was great pick up. They probably can get a fair bit more for Galvis than Sogard in a trade, so I wouldn't mind trading Galvis, and signing Sogard to a 2 year extension to play as a sort of super utility guy.
scottt - Saturday, July 20 2019 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#377432) #
A guy who does not acquire WAR because you're playing someone better is a backup player.
He had some moment he which he produced more and some moment in which he produced negatively. Less than 1 WAR per year is in line with a backup player.

It's the same thing with Goins this year. Now Goins earned a spot by producing in AAA and that took several months of sustained production.

Metrics aside, backup players like Goins and Sogard, become replacement players because teams don't want to pay high salaries to backups. They end up in the minors until someone fails to produce or get hurt, and they come up to replace someone. They might end up replacing a regular, but they are still replacement player even though they are not bound or expected to produce 0 WAR. O WAR is for a "typical" replacement player and those guys are momentary better than that.

The .294 winning rate for a team of replacement players was chosen in 2013. This produces exactly 1000 WAR among all 30 teams.

scottt - Saturday, July 20 2019 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#377438) #
Sogard has been excellent, but the Jays need their prospect to rise to that level.
Biggio, Jansen and Bichette have to become the leaders on this team.

This is the right time to trade him.
Sogard will sign with someone as a free agent over the winter.
There's no way his agent agrees to an extension.
He's never made more than the minimum. He deserves whatever money he can get.
Smoak got an extension *before* he started to produce.

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