Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Time for the summary of the top 30's from as many sites as possible. 


As most will notice, we have a clear winner for top prospect yet again - last year Vlad was #1 for everyone and this year it is Nate Pearson with Jordan Groshans being 2nd on all but one list (FanGraphs).
Rank Batters Box MLB.com (post 2019) MLB.com (current) Baseball America Baseball Prospectus FanGraphs TSN Blue Bird Banter Jays Journal Prospects Live Prospects 1500 Fantrax HQ PitcherList
1 Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson Nate Pearson
2 Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Simeon Woods Richardson Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans Jordan Groshans
3 Alek Manoah Alek Manoah Simeon Woods Richardson Simeon Woods Richardson Alek Manoah Jordan Groshans Orelvis Martinez Simeon Woods Richardson Alek Manoah Alek Manoah Simeon Woods Richardson Orelvis Martinez Alek Manoah
4 Simeon Woods Richardson Anthony Kay Alek Manoah Alejandro Kirk Eric Pardinho Orelvis Martinez Simeon Woods Richardson Alek Manoah Simeon Woods Richardson Orelvis Martinez Orelvis Martinez Alek Manoah Simeon Woods Richardson
5 Orelvis Martinez Eric Pardinho Alejandro Kirk Alek Manoah Simeon Woods Richardson Alek Manoah Alek Manoah Orelvis Martinez Adam Kloffenstein Simeon Woods Richardson Alek Manoah Simeon Woods Richardson Anthony Kay
6 Anthony Kay Simeon Woods Richardson Orelvis Martinez Orelvis Martinez Anthony Kay Alejandro Kirk Anthony Kay Gabriel Moreno Eric Pardinho Adam Kloffenstein Eric Pardinho Miguel Hiraldo Eric Pardinho
7 Gabriel Moreno Orelvis Martinez Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno Gabriel Moreno Alejandro Kirk Anthony Kay Anthony Kay Gabriel Moreno Anthony Kay Adam Kloffenstein Adam Kloffenstein
8 Miguel Hiraldo Gabriel Moreno Miguel Hiraldo Miguel Hiraldo Orelvis Martinez Anthony Kay Gabriel Moreno Alejandro Kirk Orelvis Martinez Miguel Hiraldo Adam Kloffenstein Gabriel Moreno Miguel Hiraldo
9 Adam Kloffenstein Miguel Hiraldo Adam Kloffenstein Anthony Kay Josh Winckowski Tom Hatch Eric Pardinho Miguel Hiraldo Gabriel Moreno Eric Pardinho Gabriel Moreno Eric Pardinho Orelvis Martinez
10 Alejandro Kirk Adam Kloffenstein Anthony Kay Adam Kloffenstein Griffin Conine Miguel Hiraldo Miguel Hiraldo Adam Kloffenstein Miguel Hiraldo Kendall Williams Alejandro Kirk Griffin Conine Kevin Smith
11 Eric Pardinho Kendall Williams Kendall Williams Otto Lopez Adam Kloffenstein Rikelvin de Castro Kendall Williams Patrick Murphy Kendall Williams Anthony Kay Miguel Hiraldo Alejandro Kirk Griffin Conine
12 Patrick Murphy Alejandro Kirk Eric Pardinho Estiven Machado Alejandro Kirk Adam Kloffenstein Adam Kloffenstein Reese McGuire Alejandro Kirk Leonardo Jimenez Kevin Smith Kevin Smith Alejandro Kirk
13 Reese McGuire Kevin Smith Otto Lopez Shun Yamaguchi T.J. Zeuch Kendall Williams Griffin Conine Kendall Williams Griffin Conine Otto Lopez Griffin Conine Anthony Kay Gabriel Moreno
14 Kendall Williams Leonardo Jimenez Griffin Conine Kendall Williams Kendall Williams Dasan Brown T.J. Zeuch Eric Pardinho Reese McGuire Dasan Brown Kendall Williams Kendall Williams Tom Hatch
15 Joey Murray Griffin Conine Leonardo Jimenez Eric Pardinho Dasan Brown Griffin Conine Dasan Brown Riley Adams Leonardo Jimenez Chavez Young Anthony Alford Chavez Young Chavez Young
16 T.J. Zeuch T.J. Zeuch Estiven Machado Griffin Conine Miguel Hiraldo T.J. Zeuch Kevin Smith Griffin Conine Dasan Brown Alejandro Kirk T.J. Zeuch Ryan Noda Kendall Williams
17 Yennsy Diaz Patrick Murphy Dasan Brown Leonardo Jimenez Otto Lopez Alberto Rodriguez Otto Lopez Leonardo Jimenez Kevin Smith Griffin Conine Dasan Brown Dasan Brown Dasan Brown
18 Otto Lopez Dasan Brown Rikelvin de Castro Rikelvin de Castro Riley Adams Kevin Smith Santiago Espinal Kevin Smith T.J. Zeuch Patrick Murphy Chavez Young Will Robertson Patrick Murphy
19 Griffin Conine Will Robertson Patrick Murphy Patrick Murphy Patrick Murphy Leonardo Jimenez Joey Murray Tom Hatch Anthony Alford Rikelvin de Castro Hector Perez Otto Lopez Yennsy Diaz
20 Riley Adams Anthony Alford Reese McGuire Victor Mesia Kevin Smith Eric Pardinho Tom Hatch Anthony Alford Patrick Murphy Kevin Smith Patrick Murphy Patrick Murphy Curtis Taylor
21 Dasan Brown Chavez Young Anthony Alford Santiago Espinal   Estiven Machado Patrick Murphy Josh Winckowski Will Robertson Will Robertson Leonardo Jimenez Leonardo Jimenez Will Robertson
22 Santiago Espinal Hector Perez Santiago Espinal, Alberto Rodriguez   Julian Merryweather Josh Winckowski Otto Lopez Chavez Young Tanner Morris Joey Murray Tanner Morris T.J. Zeuch
23 Josh Winckowski Yennsy Diaz Kevin Smith Dasan Brown   Reese McGuire Elvis Luciano Dasan Brown Yennsy Diaz Estiven Machado Will Robertson Anthony Alford Anthony Alford
24 Tom Hatch Tanner Morris Tom Hatch Reese McGuire   Otto Lopez Tanner Morris Santiago Espinal, Tom Hatch Ryan Noda Otto Lopez T.J. Zeuch Hector Perez
25 Leonardo Jimenez Reese McGuire Julian Merryweather Anthony Alford   Joey Murray Josh Palacios T.J. Zeuch Otto Lopez Samad Taylor Ryan Noda Rikelvin de Castro Reese McGuire
26 Samad Taylor Samad Taylor Will Robertson Kevin Smith   Yennsy Diaz Will Robertson Yennsy Diaz Hector Perez Hector Perez Forrest Wall   Tanner Morris
27 Maximo Castillo Riley Adams Riley Adams Joey Murray   Riley Adams Anthony Alford Will Robertson Santiago Espinal Yennsy Diaz Yennsy Diaz   Riley Adams
28 Josh Palacios Joey Murray Sem Robberse Yennsy Diaz   Will Robertson Leonardo Jimenez Hector Perez Riley Adams Tom Hatch Samad Taylor   Joey Murray
29 Hector Perez Kyle Johnston Yennsy Diaz Tanner Morris   Jackson Rees Rikelvin de Castro Joey Murray Joey Murray Peniel Brito Riley Adams   Samad Taylor
30 Kevin Smith Tom Hatch Josh Winckowski Will Robertson   Curtis Taylor Riley Adams Jackson McClelland Tanner Morris T.J. Zeuch Tanner Morris   Leonardo Jimenez
31           Javier D’Orazio Alejandro Melean Forrest Wall     Jordan Romano   Otto Lopez
32           Patrick Murphy Hector Perez Ryan Noda     Tom Hatch   Kyle Johnston
33           Roither Hernandez Yennsy Diaz Tanner Morris     Logan Warmoth   Dany Jimenez
34           Anthony Alford Ryan Noda Chavez Young     Santiago Espinal   Kevin Vicuña
35           Chavez Young Julian Merryweather Philip Clarke     Josh Winckowski   Emanuel Vizcaino
36           Tanner Morris Samad Taylor Samad Taylor     Hagen Danner   Jhon Solarte
37           Naswell Paulino Chavez Young Joshua Palacios     Ronny Brito   Maximo Castillo
38           Hector Perez Logan Warmoth Maximo Castillo     Jon Harris   Hagen Danner
39             Forrest Wall Edisson Gonzalez     Kevin Vicuna   Philip Clarke
40             Maximo Castillo Alejandro Melean     Rikelvin de Castro   Jose Zepeda
41             Edisson Gonzalez       Curtis Taylor   Adrian Montero
42             Kevin Vicuna #13A below     Demi Orimoloye   Glenn Santiago
43             Cullen Large Elvis Luciano     Maximo Castillo   Yorman Rodriguez
44             Kyle Johnston       Justin Maese   Brad Wilson
45             Yosver Zulueta       Juan De Paula   Luis Quinones
46             Philip Clarke       Philip Clarke   Bryan Baker
47             Javier D’Orazio       Kyle Johnston   Davis Schneider
48             Peniel Brito       Alejandro Melean   Geyber Jimenez
49             Robert Robertis       Mc Gregory Contreras   Ryan Sloniger
50             Sem Robberse       Andrew Sopko   Forrest Wall


For a quicker summary of how each player did with score being 31 points for 1st place down to 1 point for 30th plus how often they came in 1st, 2nd, and so on...
Player Times Named Score Based on top 30 only 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11-20th 21st-30th 31st and beyond
Nate Pearson 13 403 13 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Jordan Groshans 13 389 -- 12 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Alek Manoah 13 366 -- -- 6 3 4 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Simeon Woods Richardson 13 365 -- 1 4 4 3 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Orelvis Martinez 13 344 -- -- 2 3 2 2 1 2 1 -- -- -- --
Anthony Kay 13 317 -- -- -- 1 1 3 3 1 1 1 2 -- --
Gabriel Moreno 13 313 -- -- -- -- -- 1 6 3 2 -- 1 -- --
Eric Pardinho 13 301 -- -- -- 1 1 3 -- -- 3 -- 5 -- --
Adam Kloffenstein 13 300 -- -- -- -- 1 1 2 1 2 3 3 -- --
Miguel Hiraldo 13 295 -- -- -- -- -- 1 -- 5 2 3 2 -- --
Alejandro Kirk 13 291 -- -- -- 1 1 1 1 1 -- 2 6 -- --
Kendall Williams 13 250 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 12 -- --
Griffin Conine 13 234 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 11 -- --
Patrick Murphy 13 202 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 11 1 1
Kevin Smith 13 200 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 9 3 --
Dasan Brown 13 186 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 10 3 --
Otto Lopez 12 145 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7 4 1
Leonardo Jimenez 12 145 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7 5 --
T.J. Zeuch 11 138 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 7 4 --
Anthony Alford 10 112 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4 5 1
Reese McGuire 8 107 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4 4 --
Chavez Young 9 84 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4 2 3
Will Robertson 11 83 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 9 --
Tom Hatch 6 78 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 1 1
Riley Adams 10 76 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3 7 --
Rikelvin de Castro 7 70 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4 2 1
Yennsy Diaz 10 63 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 7 1
Joey Murray 9 59 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 7 --
Estiven Machado 4 54 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 2 --
Josh Winckowski 6 51 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 -- -- 4 1
Hector Perez 9 44 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 6 2
Tanner Morris 10 41 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 8 2
Santiago Espinal 5 37 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 3 1
Ryan Noda 5 29 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 2 2
Curtis Taylor 3 24 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 1 1
Alberto Rodriguez 2 24 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 1 --
Victor Mesia 1 23 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 -- --
Samad Taylor 7 21 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 5 2
Shun Yamaguchi 1 19 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 -- --
Santiago Espinal, 2 16 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 --
Julian Merryweather 3 15 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 1
Josh Palacios 2 9 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2 --
Elvis Luciano 2 8 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 1
Forrest Wall 4 5 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 3
Maximo Castillo 5 4 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 4
Sem Robberse 2 3 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 1
Kyle Johnston 4 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 3
Peniel Brito 2 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 1
Jackson Rees 1 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 --
Jackson McClelland 1 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1 --
Philip Clarke 4 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 4
Alejandro Melean 3 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 3
Edisson Gonzalez 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2
Hagen Danner 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2
Javier D’Orazio 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2
Kevin Vicuna 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2
Logan Warmoth 2 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 2
Adrian Montero 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Andrew Sopko 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Brad Wilson 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Bryan Baker 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Cullen Large 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Dany Jimenez 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Davis Schneider 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Demi Orimoloye 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Emanuel Vizcaino 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Geyber Jimenez 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Glenn Santiago 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Jhon Solarte 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Jon Harris 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Jordan Romano 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Jose Zepeda 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Joshua Palacios 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Juan De Paula 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Justin Maese 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Kevin Vicuña 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Luis Quinones 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Mc Gregory Contreras 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Naswell Paulino 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Robert Robertis 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Roither Hernandez 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Ronny Brito 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Ryan Sloniger 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Yorman Rodriguez 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1
Yosver Zulueta 1 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 1


Top 100's Summary
Here are the Jays in someone's top 100 prospects list.
MLB.com Baseball America FanGraphs FanGraphs ZIPS Baseball Prospectus Keith Law ESPN
8: Nate Pearson 7: Nate Pearson 8: Nate Pearson 22: Nate Pearson 19: Nate Pearson 11: Nate Pearson 6: Nate Pearson
75: Jordan Groshans 29: Jordan Groshans 76: Simeon Woods Richardson 26: Simeon Woods Richardson 43: Jordan Groshans 73: Jordan Groshans 68: Jordan Groshans
98: Simeon Woods Richardson 61: Simeon Woods Richardson 80: Jordan Groshans 47: Jordan Groshans 83: Alek Manoah 76: Alek Manoah 70: Simeon Woods Richardson


89: Orelvis Martinez 91: Orelvis Martinez
89: Orelvis Martinez

Phew. Lots of data to dig into there. Always interesting to see this each year and wonder which players will we go 'doh why did everyone rank him so low' or 'why was that bum ranked so high'.
Top Jay Prospects Summary | 39 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
bpoz - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 12:00 AM EDT (#386328) #
Thanks John N.
hypobole - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#386329) #
Tom Hatch and Thomas Hatch are the same person.
Jonny German - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 06:08 AM EDT (#386332) #
From last years list the big drop-offs were Kevin Smith (#7 in the merged rankings), Sean-Reid Foley (#8), and Anthony Alford (#10). The guys that have risen a lot include Gabriel Moreno (#28), Alejandro Kirk (#38), and... Otto Lopez? 17 is not a real high rank this year, but last year he wasn't named on any of the lists. Shout out to uglyone for mentioning him in the comments.

https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20190302201916880
John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#386334) #
Good catch hypobole - I thought I caught all the variations of names but I missed that one (frustrating how these sites will use different variations of names)
John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#386336) #
Josh Winckowski is interesting - Baseball Prospectus puts him at #9, but no one else has him higher than 21st (Blue Bird Banter).  Baseball America and FanGraphs don't even have him on their lists.  Our crew has him 23rd.

32 guys listed just on one list.  Of course, last year I don't think I bothered listing guys after the top 30.  I figured it is nice to see who got put onto those other lists, but to base the top prospect score on 1-30 only. 
John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#386337) #
It is interesting to look back.  Two years ago Alford was #3 on every last list and made all the top 100's.  Boy has he fallen.  A reminder that no prospect is a sure thing.
Chuck - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#386344) #
Alford was always going to seduce people, as he still does despite his track record. He's strong and fast, a terrific athlete. Not likely to ever be a terrific baseball player, though. (But don't stop dreaming!)
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#386346) #
Thanks for all the work on this, John.

Alejandro Kirk seems to have the widest overall diversion of opinions with 6 top 10 votes and 6 from 11 to 20. No doubt his hefty build has something to do with it, but people should remember that Kirby Puckett was no toothpick either.
bpoz - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#386347) #
I looked at the 2 year old list. My post was the last one. I quoted Shapiro. "Pitching is our current strength". He and I must have been thinking Stroman, Sanchez and Osuna and maybe a couple of others. Young, cheap and controllable. All gone now.

The graduations produced hitters Vlad, Bo, Gurriel, Biggio, Jansen and Tellez.

John Northey - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#386378) #
It is funny looking at that 2 year old list - no Biggio on it.  In 2017 he hit 233/342/363 in Dunedin (A+) and many wrote him off at age 22.  The next year in AA he jumped up and hit 252/388/499, increasing his OPS by 182 points.  That changes things a lot.  In AAA this year he was hitting 312/448/514 adding another 56 points to his OPS before coming up and hitting 234/364/429 for a 113 OPS+ in the majors.  Shows that guys who aren't on anyone's radar (top 30) can suddenly develop and quickly.
greenfrog - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#386379) #
I think Keith Law referred to Biggio as a “non-prospect” during his AA year and maybe even last year as well.
bpoz - Thursday, March 12 2020 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#386382) #
Biggio is a good prospect to use as a model.

University draft so 2016 does not mean much.

2017 in Dunedin he had a good write up as someone that knows the strike zone. But he K'd 30%.

2018 much better power 26 Hr the walks improved a lot but the Ks were a little worse. ie bad to worse!!

2019 K rate improved tremendously in the minors. However in the Majors still bad. Many said that the umps were the problem.
GabrielSyme - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#386491) #
Looking back on Biggio, it's pretty clear that everyone missed on him, not just that he developed well. He hit 11 HRs in Dunedin, which should have been a good sign that he could develop useable power; and while his strikeout rate was pretty high, that was mostly because of his patience and working into deep counts rather than contact problems. Not that he should have been a top-10 prospect, but he should have made the back end of those top-30s.

I don't think there's anyone similar that we're missing on right now, but we could be missing on someone further away, or with fewer currently demonstrated skills.
bpoz - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#386492) #
Good to talk baseball GabrielSyme. 11 Hr in the FSL is good because I understand that it is hard to hits Hrs in the FSL.

So why is the ball flying out in ST?
Chuck - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#386493) #
Speed aside, Biggio has "old man" skills: power and walks but a low batting average and high K rate. I was always under the belief that such a profile in the minors did not typically portend well for the majors. Maybe that was behind the low expectations.
GabrielSyme - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#386494) #
bpoz, a quick scan suggests the grapefruit league as a whole didn't have a tonne of home runs this year. The Jays were tied for the most, so I think it's just a power surge by the Jays rather than the home stadium or the stadia. I'd have to do a lot more work to compare it to last year (and even then, it wouldn't be directly comparable, since the second half of spring has far fewer minor-leaguers in the lineups). I think some people observed in a couple of the homer-heavy games that the wind was blowing out, so you might have had some good weather to help those home run totals too.

Chuck, I think Biggio's strikeout woes were somewhat exacerbated by a fair number of tough called third strikes last year. I took a look at the proportion of called third strikes in the zone, and Biggio had a really low percentage or in-zone called third strikes, even compared to other extremely selective hitters. I'd expect his batting average to be about average going forward, rather than below-average.

I think one big thing dragging Biggio's was that his major skill coming up was his excellent walk numbers, and many thought that, lacking big power, higher-level pitchers would pound the zone, and his walks would go way down. Obviously that hasn't happened, perhaps in part because he's developed enough power to keep pitchers at the edges of the zone.
hypobole - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#386495) #
One other plus tool of Biggio's last year was his baserunning skill. Had the instincts of a 10 year vet (what a contrast to Vladdy who had the instincts of a 10 year old).
Chuck - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#386500) #
I'm not trying to disparage Biggio. I'm just saying that low batting averages in the minor leagues are often a red flag.
scottt - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#386501) #
Vladdy is 20. Biggio is much older.
Failure will motivate Vladdy to try harder and get better.
He shouldn't be trying to be like Biggio.
I like Vlad hitting 4th and hitting the ball harder than anyone else, not hitting second and trying not to make any mistake.

Shoeless Joe - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#386503) #
Player A:

Drafted 5th Round, Pick #162
Age: 21 League: A-
0.282/0.382/0.366, 0.748 OPS, 118 wRC+

Player B:

Drafted 5th Round, Pick #147
Age: 20 League: A-
0.246/0.384/0.346, 0.730 OPS, 119 WRC+

Player A is Cavan Biggio and Player B is Tanner Morris. I think we do have a player overlooked like Biggio.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#386509) #
Nick Podkul
Age 22 League A/A+
0.244/0.356/0.344 .700 OPS wRC+ 110
13.4 BB%, 16.9% K%, 0.100 ISO%

Cavan Biggio
Age 22 League A+
0.233/0.342/0.363 .705 OPS, wRC+ 109
13.3 BB%, 25.2 K%, 0.130 ISO%


Both Podkul & Biggio has low GB% which suggests more power at higher levels might be possible.


Mike Green - Sunday, March 15 2020 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#386512) #
The dynamics are a bit different now due to the flyball revolution. A player like Biggio could have hit for a higher average and less power in the low minors by putting the ball on the ground more. That wouldn't necessarily have served him well later. He did work on hitting line drives in Buffalo.

It would have been extremely unusual 30 years ago to have a young player at a key defensive position and with good speed and baserunning skills having old player skills otherwise. I guess Mike Cameron did.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#386538) #
Not about prospects but if baseball ends up playing, say, two thirds of a season, would a major league player then get paid two thirds of his contract ?
bpoz - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#386541) #
Good question ISLAND BOY.

Two thirds of a season could affect other things too. Service time.

109 games only, will benefit the Jays. Maybe Vlad does not run out of gas.
John Northey - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#386549) #
With 2/3rds of a season things get confusing - look to 1981 and 1994 for examples.  I think you still get a year service time if you are up all season, but if you are down for 2 weeks or more then you only get credited for days up which means in 2 years super-two's will be a bit different (assuming that category of arbitration still exists then) due to less possible service time for non-full year guys.  So the Jays could win out a bit with Pearson as odds are they'd still keep him down for a few weeks to add a year to his service time but that might also give them one more year of no arbitration.  Plus his innings would be limited automatically due to the shortened season.  Should be interesting whenever we get baseball again.  Who will be the Matt Williams (43 HR in 112 games in 1994), Jimmy Key (17 wins in 1994), Tim Raines (71 SB  in 88 games in 1981)? 

Lots of guys have done amazing things in shortened seasons. I think pay is adjusted to the games played vs 162 games, unless the union got sneaky-smart and put a clause in to allow players to be paid full salaries in the event of a crisis.
bpoz - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#386551) #
Very good post John N. I think Vlad has a shot of producing more in less time. He came up April 26. In 109 games he could double his offensive output. Win the MVP and dominate the playoffs.
John Northey - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#386556) #
Very optimistic bpoz - a short 2nd spring and short season could boost Vlad and guys like him who can pound mistakes since pitchers would pay the highest price for lack of prep time.  At this point a good question is how short can a season be?  In 1876 (the first ML season) teams played between 57 and 70 games.  In 1871, the first pro season, teams played between 19 and 33 games.  Yeah, things were a lot different back then.  So that is the base for smallest seasons ever I suspect.  I have trouble seeing a season shorter than 30 games under any circumstances.  100 ideally so you get nearly 2/3rds of a season (as we've had twice before). 

My worst case is start September 1st and go until November 1st.  3 game sets home and away vs division (4 opponents, 24 games total).  Then playoffs as usual with 2 wildcards (maybe a rule that only 1 WC per division max due to no out of division play).  It'd fit the timeframe and give us winners and losers and some baseball at least.  That is as short a season as I see possible outside of a pure playoff, #2 last year vs #15 last  year in each league, 3 vs 14, etc. with #1 in each league getting a bye in round 1.  Then we'd have 8 teams per league for round 2, 4 for round 3, 2 for round 4, and then a World Series between the two left at the end.  Not a fan of that idea, but it is possible.
Shoeless Joe - Monday, March 16 2020 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#386559) #
Keith Law's top 30 prospects came out today on the Atheltic, this draft class looks to be very strong. If either of Austin Martin or Nick Gonzales falls to #5 I would select them, but Asa Lacy is another great pitching option. The player emerging for me is really Max Meyer who may have the best pure stuff in the draft, but is smaller/shorter player.
ayjackson - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#386590) #
I guess there should be no more updates to draft rankings. Maybe we should start aggregating lists and discussing targets. I can think of nothing else baseball related to talk about.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#386595) #
I hadn't realised Tanner Morris had missed out on the Batter's Box list, and I have him at #26 on my own list, so I was thinking he was safely considered a prospect. He is ranked in the top 30 on 8 lists, so he hasn't been as broadly overlooked as Biggio at any rate.

Podkul is somewhat interesting, and the comparison to Biggio is easy - they even share a birthday. Podkul offers a similar walk rate, a little more contact, but much less power (the ISO gap understates it - Podkul only had 3 HRs to Biggio's 11); and he was mostly at Lansing rather than Dunedin in his parallel season. It's the power that will probably have to make a step forward for him to move into the top 30.

Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#386597) #
Podkul and Biggio even both went to Notre Dame.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, March 18 2020 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#386600) #
The MLB is considering skipping the 2020 MLB draft, and then combining the draft class with the 2021 class. With the Jays at the top of the draft, this would be advantageous for the Jays.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, March 19 2020 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#386601) #
The Thomas Hatch numbers in the summary table are wrong: they should be one 9th, three 11-20th, five 21-30th, 1 beyond.

That, I believe, works out to 10 overall placings, and 87 total points.
hypobole - Thursday, March 19 2020 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#386605) #
Chris Sale will undergo TJ surgery
scottt - Friday, March 20 2020 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#386607) #
It's nice to be able to get that kind of elective surgery done now.

It's certainly the right decision.

bpoz - Friday, March 20 2020 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#386608) #
Our young core will only get 400 ABs at best in 2020. This means their ML adjustment will be slowed down.

Our prospects will similarly have reduced development time. Maybe nobody burns an option.

I cannot figure out the no draft in 2020 and a double draft in 2021. More talent for sure. Most likely higher draft budgets.
Michael - Saturday, March 21 2020 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#386609) #
With respect to baseball and baseball season it makes sense to get elective surgery done now.

With respect to our general health system, elective surgery should be postponed as all resources are needed (or are going to be needed) and elective surgery takes away from that.
scottt - Wednesday, March 25 2020 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#386644) #
Syndergard is getting it done as well.

Makes me think that Big Nate won't be an extension candidate.

scottt - Thursday, March 26 2020 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#386658) #
The draft will be pushed to July and limited to only 5-10 rounds.
The bonus will be payable in 2022.
There will be a lot of free agents but none will be able to get more than 10K.

Top Jay Prospects Summary | 39 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.