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Here we go.


Let's review how these teams have played each other.

They met for three games in Toronto in the middle of May. The Jays had just stumbled, losing 6 of 7  to fall to 18-17. Seattle was just beginning to get things turned in the proper direction, after losing 10 of 11 in late April-early May. They were still looking up at .500 with their 16-19 record.

May 16: Seattle 2 Toronto 4 - Yusei Kikuchi made his first career start against his original MLB team and was absolutely superb, tossing six innings of one-hit shutout. Bichette and Chapman each hit an early solo HR to give him a lead. It took no less than five Toronto relievers to get the final nine outs, but they managed. With Romano unavailable, it was Cimber who closed it out.

May 17: Seattle 0 Toronto 3 - Another outstanding game from a starting pitcher, as Jose Berrios scattered six hits over seven innings. Phelps and Cimber finished it off. A bases loaded triple from Springer in the second innings provided all the day's scoring.

May 18: Seattle 5 Toronto 1 - Seattle salvaged the finale behind Marco Gonzalez, who escaped a bases-loaded jam in the third allowing just a single run. Seattle went ahead in the fifth on Raleigh's solo HR off Gausman, and tacked on more on a two run by France off Richards (who was just beginning to Go Bad) and a ninth inning solo shot by Toro off Stripling, who was back in the pen now that Ryu had returned to duty.

The Mariners were still below .500 at 41-42 when Toronto came to visit in early July. But they were riding a four game winning streak, and the Blue Jays were going in the opposite direction. They had lost three straight to Tampa before setting out on their West Coast trip, and promptly lost two more to the feeble Oakland A's, before eking out a 2-1 win in the finale. This got pretty ugly pretty fast.

July 7: Toronto 3 Seattle 8 - Anthony Banda opened the game for Toronto; he faced four batters and retired one of them before being replaced by Casey Lawrence. Seattle had a 2-0 lead after the first inning. The Jays got one back, so Seattle instantly scored another off Lawrence in the second inning, and pushed across four more in the third inning to take a 7-1 lead. It all made for a stress-free evening for Marco Gonzalez.

July 8: Toronto 2 Seattle 5 - The two starters, Ross Stripling and George Kirby, were in trouble all night but each managed to hold the opposition to a pair of runs and no more. Both starters were gone after five innings with the score tied 2-2, and there it stayed, as both teams stopped hitting. The Jays got a sixth inning single from Bichette and a ninth inning single from Guerrero; the Mariners got a ninth inning single from Crawford. Ex-Jay Ryan Borucki cruised through the tenth and Romano did likewise for the Jays. Borucki also held down the Jays in the 11th and ex-Mariner Sergio Romo came out for the 11th. He issued an IBB to Santana and then gave up a three-run walkoff HR by Suarez.

July 9: Toronto 1 Seattle 2 - An outstanding pitching duel between Robbie Ray and Alek Manoah. The game was scoreless until George Springer led off the sixth with a solo HR. Manoah took a one-hit shutout, and a 1-0 lead, into the bottom of the seventh when Crawford led off with a single to right. Two pitches later, Carlos (Evil Ways) Santana struck a two-run HR and that was the ball game. Toronto put runners on first and second with one out in the ninth but Castillo got Hernandez and Chapman to ground out.

July 10: Toronto 5 Seattle 6 - Seattle finished the four game sweep by coming out on top of this back-and-forth affair. George Springer led off the game with a HR, staking Max Castillo to an early lead; Santana tied it in the second with a homer of his own. Tapia's HR put the Jays ahead in the fourth, and Bichette's two run single an inning later pushed the lead to 4-1. But in the bottom of the fifth, with the bases loaded, David Phelps got Haggerty to hit a comebacker. Phelps threw home for the first out, and Moreno fired the ball to first to complete the double play. But the ball tore through Guerrero's glove, allowing a run to score, and keeping the inning alive long enough for Rodriguez to single in another run. The Mariners tied the game an inning later on a hit batter, a wild pitch, a single, and a sac fly. Fine, said Bo Bichette, who hit a solo HR to put the Jays back on top. But in the bottom of the eighth, a crowd of Blue Jays couldn't figure out who should catch Crawford's pop, which ended up going off Moreno's glove. Evil Ways Santana followed with yet another HR, this one off Cimber, to give the Mariners their final margin of victory, and their eighth consecutive win.

Seattle would run that streak to 14 games before losing again. The Jays would stumble home after a 1-6 West Coast trip, losers of 9 of their last 10 games, and after some pause for Sober Second Thought - they fired the manager.


Seattle at Toronto, Game One | 77 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Magpie - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#423358) #
Throwing out the first pitch... Edwin!
ayjackson - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#423365) #
audio seems ahead of the video
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#423366) #
settle down big guy.
blu-j - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#423367) #
Yup--Having audio issues out of the gate is annoying...but trailing before coming to bat is more annoying.
Nigel - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#423368) #
Good piece of hitting by Suarez. Hopefully the Jays sluggers take note - you don’t need to try to hit a HR every AB.
blu-j - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#423369) #
Now we've lost the video and audio here -- Seems for the best, since MLB.com says it's now 3-0.  Ugh.
Gerry - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#423370) #
The Jays inconsistency strikes again.
mathesond - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#423371) #
"you don’t need to try to hit a HR every AB"

Someone should have told Raleigh that.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#423372) #
seems like pressure is for my heart, not just for tires.
Nigel - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#423373) #
Talk about deflating
bpoz - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#423374) #
The pressure is on the Seattle pitching now and the Jays offense.
mathesond - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#423375) #
'The pressure is on the Seattle pitching now and the Jays offense.'

Good to know there's no pressure on the Jays pitchers!
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#423376) #
blood pressure rising
SK in NJ - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#423377) #
That was the most deflating way to start the game. Lost the crowd in 10 pitches. Hopefully the Jays can grind their way back, but Seattle's strength is their rotation and pen, so not a good spot to be in.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#423378) #

Manoah has given up the same amount of runs in a third of an inning than in his past four starts combined. #Bluejays

— Rob Longley (@longleysunsport) October 7, 2022
blu-j - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#423379) #
That was the most deflating way to start the game. Lost the crowd in 10 pitches. Hopefully the Jays can grind their way back, but Seattle's strength is their rotation and pen, so not a good spot to be in.

Yes, the HBP when he was way ahead in the count set the tone.  Manoah gets so hyped up as the game starts, and usually the first inning is clean.  Just an unfortunate time to give up early deflating runs.

Plenty of time for a comeback, at least!
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#423380) #
Ump is being very kind to Alek.

Hope he appreciates it.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#423381) #
ah christ he's pulling a David Price.

dammit dammit dammit get it together kid.
Gerry - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#423382) #
Even though Manoah said pressure is for your tires, I think the pressure, or excitement, has got to him. He is over amped as they say.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#423383) #
ok. started to keep the ball down and looked a bit better.

now our big advantage over them is out lineup depth. need to show it this inning.
Chuck - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#423384) #
Does the ump owe Manoah money?
Gerry - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#423385) #
Does the ump owe Manoah money?


Maybe he owes it to the Blue Jays.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#423386) #
come on tapia feed on it.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#423387) #
I really don't want to be listening to this fluffy puffy corporate BS from Shapiro right now.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#423388) #
2 potential extra base hits held to singles.
mathesond - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#423389) #
You could always hit mute and put on some tunes while watching the game. I have a hankering for some Slanted & Enchanted right now...
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#423391) #
come on big boy its a whole new season now.
grjas - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#423392) #
They’re getting some hits against a tough pitcher which at least is a good sign. Now string them together.
mathesond - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#423393) #
Heckuva 9th inning going on in St Louis.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#423394) #
maybe they could have asked Shapiro what he thought about the Mariners' sweet deadline acquisition.
Petey Baseball - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#423395) #
I'm no Charlie Lau, but the Jays have had 4 hard hit balls off Castillo so far. 3 of them were an inside out job. Have to look other way against this kind of velocity and stuff.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#423396) #
gonna let Castillo pitch a complete game at this rate.
Mike Green - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#423398) #
Hey, the first call to go Seattle's way (the first pitch to Tapia).

Manoah's erratic control, and the HBPs, was his major issue today.  They were way out of the zone- not even close. 
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#423399) #
ok Bo and Vlad. another chance.
blu-j - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#423400) #
It would be nice to have a base runner or two prior to there being two outs.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#423401) #
we like swinging.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#423402) #
wait, why are they pulling him now on 79 pitches when he's settled down. saving him for something?
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#423403) #
ok vlady let's get the leadoff runner on base.
uglyone - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#423404) #
swingin just keep swingin
Nigel - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#423405) #
Clearly not a lot of poetry readers on this team. It’s “do not go gentle into the good night”. Not, gentlemen, not.
Nigel - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#423406) #
Tough day - very few grinding ABs from the Jays.
Petey Baseball - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 06:32 PM EDT (#423408) #
Hope Vladdy and Teoscar has taken notes on fellow righty slugger Suarez's at bats today. Hitting the ball where it's pitched. Had the big opposite field double in the first for an RBI.

On the flipside...

Hernandez rolling over an outside fastball for a double play the next pitch after a leadoff hit. Vladdy expanding the zone with runners on and two outs.

Gerry - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#423409) #
Castillo and Pop have similar fastballs, hard with lots of run. Castillo has good command of his, Pop doesn't, yet.
dalimon5 - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#423410) #
What’s is obvious from this first day is the exact same thing that has always been obvious. Elite pitching dominates the playoffs and only elite hitting defeats it.

Castillo trumps Manoah. We don’t have anyone like Jose Ramirez or Mike Trout who can take elite pitches on the corners and hit them out of the park. If Springer was healthy then I would say he’s the only one we have.
grjas - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#423411) #
Best summed up in a sentence. Castillo was excellent and Manoah wasn’t. Hopefully the Jays can at least make tomorrow’s game entertaining. Even the fans in the stadium looked bored.
Mike Green - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#423412) #
The umpire didn't include Tapia in his gifts.  Sorry, Raimel; it's all my fault.

Castillo was tough today.  Go get 'em tomorrow.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#423413) #
7 hits. No runs. 0/3 RISP.

What a shitty start to the post season.
dalimon5 - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#423414) #
All this garbage about the Jays players being too “amped up,” I’m falling BS. So the Mariners players weren’t amped up??? This team went hard after home field advantage, I don’t want to hear that they were too amped up. They didn’t score a run. I just wish these analysts would just say “the other pitcher was amazing.”
Nigel - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:15 PM EDT (#423415) #
The Seattle pitching was excellent but the Jays hitters didn’t make it particularly hard on them. Hopefully tomorrow is another day.
Magpie - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#423416) #
I believe Castillo went to ball 3 just three times all day - a full count to Guerrero, and later on Kirk and Jansen battled from 0-2 to force the count full. He was ahead of them all day.
dalimon5 - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#423417) #
“I think guys were trying to go about it as business as usual but that didn’t work out.”

- John Schneider

BlueJayWay - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#423418) #
This is why I'm glad the wild card isn't a one game "series" anymore. You run into a buzzsaw like that and your season is over in one day. That was some ridiculous stuff from Castillo. Nobody was hitting that, imo.
Two more chances. The key would seem to be to get the lead of the Mariners starter and then not give it up.
grjas - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#423419) #
The key would seem to be to get the lead of the Mariners starter and then not give it up.

For sure. Munoz was scary good, and he’s not the only one like that in the pen.
soupman - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#423420) #
i'm concerned about springer's hand/wrist. that looked nasty.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#423421) #
"Lost the crowd in 10 pitches."

The crowd emotion factors into performance. Brings to mind the context of professional wrestling, where the strategy of booking matches in a particular sequence is crucial to creating waves of high energy.

"Keep Ya Head Up"
"I Ain't Mad at Cha"

John Northey - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#423422) #
Really, just one more chance. Lose tomorrow and it is all over. Still, better situation than 18 other teams. Same boat as the Rays, Cardinals, and Mets are losing too (3-0 in the 3rd to SD who had 89 wins, 12 games back of the Mets). The postseason is a crapshoot. Tons of fun though.
Magpie - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#423423) #
Lose tomorrow and it is all over.

The Mets won 101 games and sent a guy with three Cy Young awards to the mound today. Yikes.

But Yu Darvish owns them and he always has. They've never beaten him.
soupman - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#423424) #
i've seen this sentiment a lot, but i don't think it's true. wild card teams win less than you'd expect if that were the case.

John Northey - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 11:12 PM EDT (#423425) #
Great point Magpie - Max Scherzer is a HOF'er with 3 Cy's who had a great year, 2.29 ERA 169 ERA+ but limited innings 145. But he allowed 7 runs in 4 2/3 IP. Makes Manoah's start look great. But his team lost 7-1 so both the Mets & Jays had trouble scoring today, as did the Rays - total of 2 runs between those 3 good teams. The other loser was St Louis who scored 3 runs with a few HOF'ers and tons of playoff experience on the team. Funny with Darvish as he has a playoff ERA of 5.18 before today over 7 starts while Scherzer was 3.22 over 21 starts and 5 relief appearances.

Just further proof the playoffs are largely a crap shoot, but everyone plays tomorrow so who knows who will win these series.
John Northey - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#423426) #
A reminder of the wildness of the playoffs... the past 10 years champions and how they got there.
WS winners...
2021: Atlanta (88 wins, NL East winner but worst record of any playoff team)
2020: Dodgers (717 win%, best in baseball)
2019: Nationals (93 wins, wild card)
2018: Red Sox (108 wins best in MLB)
2017: Astros (101 wins, 3rd best in MLB)
2016: Cubs (103 wins, best in MLB)
2015: Royals (95 wins, best in AL)
2014: Giants (88 wins, wild card)
2013: Red Sox (97 wins, tied for tops in MLB)
2012: Giants (94 wins, won NL West)

So best in MLB won 4 times, division winners an additional 4 times, 2 wild cards. Seems reasonable. Given mostly during that time it was 6 division winners and 2 WC's. One would hope the best in MLB would win more often than others do. It'll be interesting in 10 years to see if this new format makes it harder for WC's to win (that is part of the idea) while still giving them hope by simply reaching. Under the most recent system the Jays would be out now after a 1 game WC winner take all game, while before that the Jays would now be in the ALDS playing Houston in a best of 5, and before that (1993 and earlier) the Jays would've been home dreaming of a brighter future while the Yankees and Astros would be playing the ALCS.
Michael - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#423427) #
The Jays probably win about 55-60% of games when they give up a total of 4 runs. They win 0% of the games when they score a total of 0 runs. Clearly the loss is much more on the hitting than on the pitching.
John Northey - Friday, October 07 2022 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#423428) #
Oh no question on that front Michael. Just we all know Manoah tonight will be furious with himself for not shutting down the other team - if he had then the game might have gone to extras and maybe at some point someone would've done something. A competitor like him will 100% be feeling that way right now. Especially when he hit that one guy twice with 2 strikes - get him out instead of hitting him and the game might have been a 0-0 tie instead when he left. Would've changed how he pitched. Manoah got too caught up in the moment I think. However, he did better than Mad Max did for the Mets (7 runs under 5 IP) which I doubt anyone would've predicted.
soupman - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 12:47 AM EDT (#423429) #
interesting. i read that as an over-representation of the best team winning. i think a bigger sample would bring that number down a bit, but the better teams have a tendency to make it to the series. and while mlb is not the nba, i still think it's a stretch to call the playoffs a crapshoot.
grjas - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#423432) #
The way Castillo was pitching, the Jays would have been lucky to get more than a couple of runs. Bo did miss a mistake pitch with runners on, but otherwise Castillo was exceptional.

Given how good both starters were, I was expecting a 2-1 type of game with a bounce here or there making a difference. But unfortunately Manoah had some initial jitters. He’s human, it happens. If Sherzer can have an off game, anyone can.

It’s a good reminder though of how a one game wild card wasn’t a great idea. And a Gausman vs Ray game seems so fitting in many ways.
85bluejay - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#423433) #
Arizona with talented young outfielders is looking to upgrade at catching according to their GM - seems a good Jays fit - Corbin Carroll is probably not available but Alek Thomas after a disappointing debut probably is.
Magpie - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#423434) #
The Jays probably win about 55-60% of games when they give up a total of 4 runs.

Seems logical - after all, they averaged 4.76 runs per game this season - but in fact they went 5-9 when allowing four runs.
bpoz - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#423435) #
Arizona is definitely moving up. Would they want a veteran C like Danny or a finished prospect like Moreno? We also don't know the C plans of the Jays for 2023.
Magpie - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#423436) #
they went 5-9 when allowing four runs.

I went into the weeds, and four runs is a very clear dividing line - they allow four runs or more, and they probably lose. Three runs or less and they probably win. They went 73-10 when they held the opposition to three runs or less, 19-60 when they gave up at least four runs. Here's the blow-by-blow

Runs  W  L
0    10  0
1    25  0
2    16  3
3    22  7
4     5  9
5     8 10
6     1  9
7     1 10
8     1  9
9     1  3
10    1  4
11    1  3
12    0  3

The offense isn't quite as cut and dried, but they never win when they don't score at all (0-8) and they never lose when they score at least 8 (26-0).
dalimon5 - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#423437) #
Jake McCarthy is better than both.
bpoz - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#423438) #
Druw Jones is very young and unproven. He could be a great prospect in 2 years. So there could be an excess of OF in Arizona.

St Louis will not do a rebuild IMO but they need an experienced C with Y Molina retiring. Jansen fits there IMO.
electric carrot - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#423439) #
I like Toronto's chances against a left hander today. I think it's time to move Jansen up the batting order.
John Northey - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#423440) #
Arizona is very interesting from a trade perspective. They are desperate for an offensive catcher who isn't bad on defense. Ideally right handed as their lineup is very LH heavy. Jansen fits the bill quite nicely as would Moreno I suspect. Top guys on the block for a deal are Alek Thomas (CF, age 22 76 OPS+, was a top 30ish prospect in MLB coming into 2022 pure CF 1.5 bWAR 0.5 fWAR despite his low OPS+ thanks to strong defense) and Jake McCarthy (24 yrs old 118 OPS+ this year in RF/LF/CF, just 1 year of ML service time). They also need pitching of course (who doesn't outside of the Dodgers). A RH slugger would also be on their list (maybe one of our soon to be FA's to enhance the deal, maybe to add an extra piece). They also would like to dump Madison Bumgarner ($37 mil over the next 2 years) who could be a 5th man in our rotation - eats innings and has big time playoff experience. Lots of possibilities if the Jays are willing to eat some cash in a deal. I've been on this for months - an Arizona/Toronto deal makes a TON of sense, we have tons of RH catchers they have tons of LH CF'ers - lets make a deal. Could mix in some live arms that annoy us like Pearson too if needed to get a stronger player.
John Northey - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#423441) #
So clearly we have to hope for an 8-3 game today :) I'd take it.
grjas - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#423443) #
Ray had a crummy Sept again so hopefully he’s tired. Of course Castillo’s was off a bit and Manoah’s was dominant, so who knows.

Come on VG. Brighten up your year with one big swing.
John Northey - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#423444) #
The lineup for potentially the final game of 2022...
CF: Springer
SS: Bichette
1B: Guerrero
DH: Kirk
RF: Hernandez
3B: Chapman
C: Jansen
LF: Merrifield
2B: not listed but I'd assume Espinal given the all RH lineup.
SP: Gausman

All vs Ray - so appropriate the $110+ million guy who left so we could sign $110+ million guy Gausman. Who wrote this script? Only way it would be better is if it was game 3.
John Northey - Saturday, October 08 2022 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#423445) #
For extra hope...
Ray the past 28 days: 889 OPS against, last 14 940, last 7 1.113. So he clearly has had issues when the pressure was on for Seattle. For the season vs RH: 236/308/431 vs LH: 212/260/387. Home: 208/266/380, Away: 262/342/480. His OPS against in high leverage is 742 vs 710 in neutral vs 731 in low. So everything suggests today should be a good day for the Jays on offense. Lets hope.
Seattle at Toronto, Game One | 77 comments | Create New Account
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