Brandon Barriera is joining the FCL team on a rehab assignment.

Each Thursday I get a newsletter from a site called Down on the Farm. This week they did a Goldilocks Preseason prospect rankings from Fangraphs, BA and Pipeline, one they felt too hot, one too cold and one just right for each site. The too cold for FG was Nimmala. FG had him #70, their model #43. Here is their take on why they ranked him higher than FG:

"16 homers in 361 PA as an 18-year-old in A-Ball is incredibly impressive, putting him in similar company with guys like Fernando Tatis Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Giancarlo Stanton (who hit 39!!! in 540 PA as an 18-year-old in A-Ball). Point is, the power is absolutely nuts, and even fewer players possess that level of pop at a premium position. Normally, the model is afraid of toolshed prospects, but Nimmala is a notable exception.
He’s justified our preseason praise with a fantastic start to 2025, clubbing nine dingers in 216 High-A PA while more notably posting a career low 17.6% K% and a .290 average. He’s swinging slightly less than last year (42.5% compared to 45.7%) while making contact at a rate six percentage points higher than last year, and he’s cut his infield fly ball percentage by eight percentage points (16.1%). Nimmala is an example of why age/level matters so much in prospect evaluation; a 20-year-old with his 2024 numbers presents far fewer opportunities for growth than an 18-year-old Nimmala.

https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/mlb-pipeline-2025-mock-draft-june-6?t=mlb-draft-coverage

1. Nationals: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 3)
2. Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 9)
3. Mariners: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6)
4. Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1)
5. Cardinals: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4)
6. Pirates: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS (No. 5)
7. Marlins: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7)
8. Blue Jays: Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma (No. 8)
9. Reds: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 2)
10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 10)

Why do they have Hernandez falling? Signability?

love that blurb, Hypo, both because it called Nimmala a top-50 prospect BEFORE the season (with his current performance imo getting him comfortably into the top-20 at this point), and of course because it reinforces my "age/level" hobbyhorse.

I think everyone acknowledge Nimmala's power potential, but some had concerns about his strikeout rates. He struck out more often and made worse contact than Stanton, Freeman, and Tatis Jr at that age.

He's made massive improvements to that part of his game this year, but it doesn't mean it wasn't cause for concern. He really does look elite this year.

I think that is the second mock that has the Jays passing on Seth Hernandez at 8, which if it were to happen, would be profoundly disappointing. He's arguably the best player in the draft.

The Nimmala concerns were why he wasn't ranked higher. Tatis was a consensus top 10 prospect after his age 18 season, Stanton top 20. Even 1st base only Freeman was ranked only a few spots lower than NImmala's  FG ranking.

The other thing to remember about Nimmala this year is that Nat Bailey isn't exactly High Desert or Las Vegas when it comes to HR totals. It used to be death to RH HR totals. They've added a LF bleacher section in the past few years which has increased LF HRs but it still takes a blast through the power alleys and to CF. There are zero cheap HRs at the Nat.

strikeout rates were definitely a concern, and i'm actually kinda shocked he's been able to cut them pretty much in half. never expected that.

and also, his overall line last year was just good not great, so that likely held him down as well. us jays fans could see the marked difference pre- and post- his demotion to complex league, but that might have not been as clear from the outside - and might not have been enough to just ignore the early struggles anyways. but that latter split definitely showed elite prospect level performance - the question coming into the year was whether we could just ignore that earlier sample.

Pre: 125pa, 12.0bb%, 34.4k%, .242babip, .167avg, .139iso, 75wrc+
Post: 266pa, 9.0bb%, 28.9k%, .326babip, .263avg, .302iso, 150wrc+
2025: 226pa, 11.1bb%, 17.7k%, .315babip, .286avg, .224iso, 138wrc+

the good news is that Nimmala this year is showing his post-complex stint surge last year was no fluke, and that's probably the biggest thing to me. You put together that latter stint from last year together with his performance this year and it's pretty elite stuff for age and level.

Hernandez mostly seems to be further down because they don't think the top teams in the draft will take the risk on a prep righty.

I think the reality is almost any of the top 9 could go in almost any order in the draft right now, plus Parker and Irish have a lot of helium.

A lot of mocks have us taking Witherspoon. I think the prep options such as Seth, Willits, Carlson, or Parker would be nice.

Barriera gets through the first inning in the FCL.

Hernandez's age

Seth Hernandez Age At Draft: 19.1
Ethan Holliday Age At Draft: 18.4
Eli Willits Age At Draft: 17.6
Billy Carlson Age At Draft: 19
Joseph Parker Age At Draft: 18.9
Kayson Cunningham Age At Draft: 19.1
Steele Hall Age At Draft: 18
Xavier Neyens Age At Draft: 18.7
Kruz Schoolcraft Age At Draft: 18.2
Daniel Pierce Age At Draft: 19
Kyson Witherspoon Age At Draft: 20.9 college

Arjun Nimmala SS Age At Draft: 17.7

The age thing is one reason why I'm not in on Carlson, but I'm less concerned about age for pitching prospects. Carlson is an older hs shortstop without either a lot of certainty on the hit tool or power. Hard to see that package being what you want at eighth overall.

I am less concerned with age for pitching prospects, projectability is a little less dependent on age.

Fangraphs today:

Thomas
12:31 Thoughts on Addison Barger's recent performance? Fulfilling the top end of his prospect projection, or playing out over his skis?

Eric A Longenhagen
12:32 He made substantive changes to his swing, I think this might be real uptick.

High school pitchers are easily the least successful demographic in drafts and many teams don't want to draft one early in the first round. I wouldn't either. Would much prefer a hitter here and if none of the best ones drop, go unserslot. In baseball, you don't draft for specific need but the Jays system is already very pitching heavy, so much so that by EOY, Nimmala might be the only position player prospect in their top-10.

My first round draft philosophy would be to generally prefer position players unless the player has a realistic upside of #1 starter. "A high 90s fastball, a good curve and a great change-up and increasing velocity into the 7th inning" sounds like the exception is met. I don't care that the club has drafted many pitchers high; draft position players in the 2nd and 3rd round then. And the risk of arm troubles is always there; that wouldn't stop me in this case. And as for Hernandez' age of 19. That's an asset, as far as I am concerned, as the risk of overuse at a young age is diminished.

Again, high school pitchers fail at a much higher rate than anyone else which is why most teams won't take one high. In 2020, Keith Law had a piece on how many players taken in first round reach 10- WAR for their careers (from 1985-2012 so large sample) .
College hitters: 36%
High school hitters: 26%
College pitchers: 25%
High School pitchers: 16%

If you look at only top-10 picks so the elite prospects from the same time, this is how many had 10+ WAR.
College hitters: 50%
High school hitters: 39%
College pitchers: 32%
High school pitchers: 21%

College pitchers and high school hitters were taken the most in first round. High school pitchers and college hitters are taken less often so bar to be taken already higher.

From The article: "Taking high school pitchers against these odds amounts to a bit of magical thinking: Yes, the failure rate for high school arms taken high in the draft is high, and the opportunity cost of those picks is also pretty high (you could have taken a position player who was more likely to return sufficient value for the pick), but we think this guy right here is the exception. This amounts, at least at some level, to saying that you believe that your group of evaluators, from the general manager to the scouting director on down, can figure out which players will be the exceptions to the base rate."

I wonder if the failure rate for HS pitchers might be even higher now, as elite young players throw ever-harder to attract the attention of scouts. 16-year-old arms are probably not meant to throw in the high-90s.

High school players have often received a higher bonus relative to their draft slot to forgo their college commitment. Now there is NIL money. Seth Hernandez college commitment is Vanderbilt, which plays in the SEC, the one baseball conference awash in NIL money. He'll make over $1 million his 3 years there, maybe well over. . So the drafting team has to take that into account as well. Jays bonus pool is a bit over $10 million, 19 teams have more to spend. I predict Jays go college their 1st pick no matter who's available when they make their first choice.

I think given the Jays not having a 2nd round pick, it does seem pretty likely that they'll want to do something so they can take a bigger swing on a prep guy in a subsequent round.

Watching the Super Regionals this weekend, it will be interesting seeing how some of these guys look.

One guy on Louisville who looks interesting for around the 4th-6th round - Matt Klein. Lefty catcher. Injuries have really hampered his college career, but when he's been on the field he's been a difference maker. More BB than K, likely to stay behind the plate.

BA Updated Jays Top 30.

1. Arjun Nimmala
2. Trey Yesavage
3. Ricky Tiedemann
4. Khal Stephen
5. Alan Roden
6. Josh Kasevich
7. Orelvis Martinez
8. Kendry Rojas
9. Johnny King
10. Landen Maroudis
11. Jake Bloss
12. Juaron Watts-Brown
13. Yohendrick Pinango
14. RJ Schreck
15. Gage Stanifer
16. Ryan Jennings
17. Brandon Barriera
18. Edward Duran
19. Charles McAdoo
20. Fernando Perez
21. Victor Arias
22. Carson Messina
23. Jace Bohrofen
24. Adam Macko
25. Jonatan Clase
26. Angel Bastardo
27. Yorman Licourt
28. Sean Keys
29. Peyton Williams
30. Sam Shaw

Money is definitely a consideration.

The hit rate at 10 career WAR and over in drafting a high school pitcher doesn't really capture the pluses and minuses of drafting a player like Hernandez because:
- most high school pitchers drafted in the first round are younger and do not have the 3 pitches that he has; he's more akin to a 20 year old from jc
- the reward for a very good player is higher for a starting pitcher than a position player because of the importance of playoffs in winning the World Series now (the multiple rounds) and the greatly increased importance of one's top 3 pitchers (the days off).

Josh Beckett would be an example. He was a 35 WAR player over his career, but added value not captured at all in that figure during the post-season. This happens much more with starting pitchers than position players.

If Sam Shaw is truly your 30th best prospect, your system is in very good shape.

Hernandez is hardly the best high school pitching prospect ever. You're doing the thing Law is talking about which is assuming you know why previous high school pitchers failed and why Hernandez is more likely to succeed.There have been older high schoolers before and there have been high schoolers with great secondaries before. Hernandez has a high effort delivery and a relatively flat fastball. Law compares him as behind Jackson Jobe as a draftee and similar to Nobel Meyer. This isn't a Jays thing. Most teams, especially most smart teams, just don't take high school pitching early. Yes there are some high schooler pitchers who make it but the data clearly shows they make it a much lower rate than anyone else. I mean, only 21% of top-10 HS pitchers make it. That's horrible.

Johnathan Mayo:
9. Reds: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 2)
Not only is he a high school right-hander, which will make the risk-averse look elsewhere, he’ll be 19 at Draft time, which some team models won’t like. But the Reds have had some success with SoCal prep righties who hit triple digits, so …

Don't Know what Marc Tramuta will do but in past two years Jays have gone over slot on HS pitchers, 4R Maroudis (23) and 3R King (24). I don't care who they take just want quality, Quality can always be moved for need.

most high school pitchers drafted in the first round are younger and do not have the 3 pitches that he has; he's more akin to a 20 year old from jc

Not really. The typical "top HS RHP pitcher in the draft" looks eerily similar almost every year from a scouting perspective:

- ~6'4

- "Has hit 100, but usually sits 94-97"

- "'X' secondary pitch is a plus pitch already, 'Y' secondary pitch is above average but he's shown much better feel lately so scouts believe it can also be a plus pitch"

- "Already shows good feel for pitching considering his velocity, and he's a good athlete so scouts are optimistic the command will translate"/

- etc.

And despite all that, the success rate is horrible. Seth Hernandez may be a notch "better" on paper than your typical #1 HS RHP (example: Noble Meyer from 2023), but it really does look like a rinse-and-repeat "this time it'll be different" story every year. Hernandez may have a better "on paper" third pitch than you usually see out of the stock "top HS RHP pitcher in the draft", but its hard to fathom that that alone was the missing piece all along as to why so many of the previous iterations couldn't even make it out of the minors.

Here is MLB.com's profile of Brock Porter from 2022. This basically reads like Hernandez-lite:

- 6'4, 208

- FB: 70, CH: 60, SL: 55

"Porter has the best fastball in the high school crop, sitting at 94-97 mph for innings at a time, topping out at 100 and generating that velocity and plenty of armside run and carry with relative ease. He also owns one of the better changeups in the Draft, as he throws his with deceptive arm speed, good velocity separation in the low 80s and outstanding horizontal action. He has made encouraging progress with his slider this spring, flashing some plus slide pieces as hard as 87 mph, and he'll mix in a downer curveball in the upper 70s.

Other than continuing to refine his feel for spin, Porter doesn't need much beyond experience and continued good health. He has a strong 6-foot-4 frame with some projection remaining, repeats a delivery that features little effort and provides plenty of strikes. He's committed to Clemson and would be Draft-eligible in 2024 as a sophomore if he doesn't turn pro this summer."

Of the 21 World Series MVP's since Beckett won it in 2003, 21 have been hitters, 3 pitchers.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the front office is turning the page on its reputation from the last year or two. The MLB team is looking pretty good, thanks to a bunch of quality young position players and a rebuilt bullpen (including very effective young pitchers in Little and Fluharty).

The farm system is much better. As BA noted today, the system is “on the upswing” and “looks like one of the most improved this spring.”

The FO extended Vladdy, which is good for the team and PR with fans.

The stadium and ST facility have been renovated.

The team now seems to have a large annual payroll.

The present and the future are starting to look bright again.

The hit rate on the 8th overall pick is lower than you might think, but it is true that the 3 picks who had very significant value were position players (Lindor, Helton and Jay Bell). If you think that you have a position player who reasonably could end up as one of those guys, I'd take him over Hernandez.

I do think that you can overshoot the mark though if you never take pitchers.

This regime has had 10 1st round picks and taken 6 pitchers. AA had 18 1st round picks and took 13 pitchers.

Prep pitchers picked in the first 30 picks, past decade:

2024: Caminiti (24), Mayfield (25)

Too early.

2023: Meyer (10)

Meyer's command is rough. Tons of potential but long way to go.

2022: Lesko (15), Murphy (20), Barriera (23), Schultz (26)

Lesko is very likely a bust. Murphy's looked great, but 2024 TJ. Barriera, we know the story there. Schultz is in AA.

2021: Jobe (3), Mozzicato (7), Painter (13), Petty (26), Bruns (29)

Jobe is looking good. Mozzicato just hit AA, terrible command though. Painter is a stud, but lost two seasons due to injury. Will be in Philly soon. Petty just made his MLB debut. Bruns has lost a lot of time due to injuries, good stuff but awful command.

2020: Abel (15), Bitsko (24)

Hey, we just saw this guy! Abel struggled with command but has looked much better this year. Bitsko has been injured almost the whole time since being drafted.

2019: Priester (18), Espino (24), Walston (26)

Priester is likely a mid or back of the rotation guy, finding his way in the majors. If healthy, Espino would be a top 10 prospect (14.9 K/9!), but has dealt with injury after injury and hasn't played since 2022. Walston made the majors in 2024, but UCL issues now.

2018: Weathers (7), Stewart (8, unsigned), G Rodriguez (11), Winn (15), Liberatore (16), Denaburg (27), Ginn (30, didn't sign)

Weathers has found a home in the Marlins rotation and looking great this year. Grayson Rodriguez may still be an ace but has battled injuries. Winn has struggled but making his way as a reliever. Liberatore is a solid mid-rotation arm. Denaburg flamed out at A+.

2017: Greene (2), Gore (3), Baz (12), Rogers (13), Hall (21)

Greene and Gore have been excellent. Baz has shown flashes. Rogers has been a dependable #4/5 arm. Hall has had their ups and downs but still getting opportunities as an SP. Safe to say this was an excellent prep pitching draft.

2016: Anderson (3), Pint (4), Garrett (7), Manning (9), Groome (12), Whitley (17), Ragans (30)

Anderson rocketed to the majors but hasn't really found his form again since dealing with injuries. Pint struggled with injuries and command, retired, unretired, got a cup of coffee, looked awful, got injured again. Garrett had TJ, was excellent in 2022-2023, UCL surgery in 2024. Manning has had some MLB success but always ends up injured. Groome had TJ in 2018, missed almost 3 seasons. Looked great after coming back then abysmal in 2023. Suspended in 2024 for violating the MLB gambling policy. Whitley looked like a stud...but, again, injury after injury. Still might make it as a reliever. Ragans had two consecutive TJs but has turned into an exciting pitcher.

2015: Allard (15), Aiken (17), Russell (21), Burrows (22), Nikorak (27), Soroka (28)

Allard is in the majors but has never really found sustained success. Aiken, Russell, Nikorak all dealt with TJ and never got above A ball. Burrow made the majors and was terrible. Soroka had that amazing 2019 before succumbing to constant injuries.


The biggest thing here...a lot of flamethrowers that dealt with TJ and injuries. Tough to know if any of those names could've had more success knowing what we know now and improvements in the surgeries and rehab processes. 2017 was an outstanding year. With injuries, most of these guys who did make the majors took anywhere from 5-8 years post-draft to make the majors. At the end of the day, if the team is trying to compete and take advantage of the current core, there's very little incentive to going after more prep pitchers in the early rounds. A college hitter or pitcher has the ability to make an impact within 1-2 years. A prep pitcher is the least likely to have an impact until many years down the road.

Everything else being equal, I'd rather draft a hitter, but if Seth Hernandez slides to eight, I'd be disappointed to pass on him.

He's ranked second both by MLB Pipeline and by Baseball America - even if you apply a steep deduction for being a high-school pitcher, there's a big expected drop in expected production from the 2nd slot to the 8th, so I think you'd get value simply because he's available at the 8th spot. But I also get the sense that the industry has somewhat internalized the greater risk that high-school arms present - the only top-5 pick since 2017 was Jackson Jobe in 2021, and in 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2024 there wasn't a single high-school arm taken in the top 10. This is an industry that appears to have adjusted.

Lastly, this seems to be a fairly weak draft, with no stand-out top draft prospect, and a fairly thin college hitter class. I'd love to nab Willits, but I don't think it's plausible that he gets to us.

as someone who doesn't follow pre-draft prospect i gotta say i'm loving this discussion.

good stuff everyone.

It's kind of a moot point because the Jays are not going to draft Hernandez. Any team that uses models and data will pass on him high because drafting a high school pitcher high is almost always a bad move. I don't like taking pitcher high in the first round to begin with because pitchers are so volitile and I think it's easier to find pitching later in the draft than hitting. Unless one of the top hitters drops, I like going underslot to be able to get another high school player with upside round 3.

Just based on my gut, I think the Jays almost certainly like Willits (young for draft, mlb dad), and might like Gavin Kilen (amazing contact ability, defensive versatility, with power), Ike Irish (catcher but maybe not a catcher which they've drafted a lot recently but not with his skill level). They probably like a few of the college arms too but not sure which.

9 more excellent innings for Yesavage/Stanifer.

just to add

Minor League Baseball@MiLB

Trey Yesavage continues to be a ... savage.

The @BlueJays' No. 2 prospect racks up nine strikeouts for the
@vancanadians, giving him the Minors lead with 88 K's this season.

Watts-Brown 80 K's
Stephen 64 K's
Stanifer 64 K's