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Given we are now into September, the potential playoff roster options are set - if you weren't in the system on the night of August 31st to September 1st you can't play with the Jays in the post-season. So IKF qualifies (barely), but Buddy Kennedy (re-acquired September 1st) doesn't.

Here is a list of everyone who can play in October with the Jays who is on the 40 man roster (guys not on it can too, but few will be considered outside of the obvious one in Trey Yesavage (xFIP of 2.49 so far))

I used wRC+ for hitters, and xFIP for pitchers. Just to minimize the randomness due to parks/leagues (ERA and OPS can be drastically affected by that) and to avoid playing time issues (WAR and most raw stats can be grossly shifted due to that too).  Fielding quality we pretty much know I figure.  Varsho = good, Bo = bad (relative to others at their positions that is - I'm sure Bo is 1000x+ better than anyone here).  Brackets show overall stats for guys who came here mid-season (otherwise stuff like IKF's stats would make no sense, and you need to see how France has done since he came here to appreciate how useful he has been).  FYI: RH-CL = Right handed closer, SU = Set Up man.

The guys here now are....



wRC+ or xFIP
Position Who Majors Minors
DH/OF George Springer 164 313
RF/3B Addison Barger 108 94
1B/DH Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 143
SS Bo Bichette 130
CF Daulton Varsho 138 45
C Alejandro Kirk 123
OF Nathan Lukes 102
IF Ernie Clement 94
2B Andrés Giménez 77 94

C Tyler Heineman 139
1B/DH Ty France 135 (99)
IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa 9 (74)
LF/2B Davis Schneider 135 103
CF/OF Myles Straw 94

RH-S Kevin Gausman 3.86
RH-S Max Scherzer 4.64 3.77
RH-S Chris Bassitt 3.83
RH-S José Berríos 4.39
RH-S Shane Bieber 2.03 2.34

RH-CL Jeff Hoffman 3.35
RH-SU Seranthony Domínguez 4.19 (3.80)
RH-SU Yariel Rodríguez 4.44
RH-R Tommy Nance 2.55 2.67
LH-R Brendon Little 3.28
RH-R Louis Varland 2.88 (3.06)
LH-R Ryan Borucki 6.14 (3.88) 4.58
RH-R Dillon Tate 5.87 4.65
LH-R Eric Lauer 4.22 4.58

IL Anthony Santander 62
IL Alek Manoah
6.08
IL Nick Sandlin 4.90 5.60

40 man minors
IF Orelvis Martinez
72
IF Leo Jiménez -20 118
OF Joey Loperfido 159 98
PR Jonatan Clase 68 98

LH-R Easton Lucas 4.75 4.06
RH-S Lazaro Estrada 3.52 4.79
LH-S Adam Macko
4.90
LH-R Mason Fluharty 4.45 2.51
RH-R Braydon Fisher 3.38 3.12
RH-R Paxton Schultz 3.77 4.28
LH-R Justin Bruihl 3.72 3.30

So we can see lots of options, some good, some bad. Interesting to look at minor league and ML numbers side by side for some guys.  Fluharty does much better in the minors, but Estrada did better in the majors - go figure. Loperfido a below average hitter (barely) in the minors, but hit like a house on fire up here. Nance about the same at both levels.  Very surprised to see Varland having a better xFIP here than in Minny (IE: He is pitching well, but has rotten luck so far).

So who makes the final 26 man roster I wonder.  It'll obviously depend on A) who is healthy, B) who is hot, C) who the opponent is.  Some slots are (or should be) locked in. But for 4th starter (especially in the ALDS) I'm very curious what the Jays do.  Much more fun than last year debating who should be called up to see if they can play in the majors at all, or if they can help next year.  

For hitters I'm betting on Straw, Schneider, Heineman being locks along with the 9 regulars, then either IKF or France depending on what the Jays think they'll need most, a PH or another IF, I expect it to be France.
The pen is a lot trickier and depends how the rotation goes too (if it is an 8 or 9 man pen and if any starters go to the pen outside of Lauer). Locks (4) are Hoffman-Dominguez-Rodriguez-Little.  Varland & Nance should be locks too.  That leaves 2-3 more slots, Lauer should get one, everyone else is auditioning for the other 1 or 2.  I expect Fisher has a great shot at one once he is back up, then a LH with Fluharty my choice (his LAD game being the #1 reason). I'm sure everyone here has opinions on this.  Rotation has to be Gausman-Scherzer-Bieber in some order. 4th I think depends on opponent (if Bassitt or Berrios has had success vs them).
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Katie - Thursday, September 04 2025 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#467553) #
There's no reason, IMO, to have a 9 man pen in at least the ALDS. Teams have off days every third day, so there is sufficient time for relievers to recover. The Jays should have four starters and eight relievers, with at least one being a long man/starter (from the Lauer, Berrios, Bassitt or even Yesavage mix).

Also, I don't think Nance is lock. He's pitching well, the advanced stats back it up, and they're increasing his leverage, but I think a couple of bad outings could change his trajectory in a way it wouldn't for Dominguez or Varland. It would be very hard to leave him off with another 10 innings of pitching to a 1.50 ERA.

However, if there are five locks and the team wants a long reliever (say Lauer or Bassitt) and there's an 8-man bullpen, both Fisher and Nance could make the team, but that leaves them without a second lefthander for short relief and no spot for Yesavage (which I think they are seriously considering).

A lot of this will depend on health and opponent, and which round of the playoffs it is, of course.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 04 2025 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#467554) #
ESPN's latest power rankings are out. The Blue Jays are 6th, behind four teams with worse W-L records than them (Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Tigers). I imagine that will change if Toronto wins the upcoming series with the Yankees.
greenfrog - Thursday, September 04 2025 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#467555) #
1-1 Yankees-Astros in the 4th.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2025 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#467556) #
Rice can't play 1B.
uglyone - Thursday, September 04 2025 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#467557) #
Astros were down 5 heading into the 9th but Bednar let in a run and now loaded the bases and the tying run is at the plate with 1 out.
dalimon5 - Friday, September 05 2025 @ 01:54 AM EDT (#467559) #
MLB pipeline now has Jojo Parker number 40 overall and ahead of Nammala. He is the number 2 prospect in the Jays farm which means Trey Yesavage has moved up as well. He's now one of the top 5 pitching prospects in baseball (#25 in MLB Pipeline top 100).

Apparently his FB is down to 93 in his last start but his change up is insane (Keegan Matheson).
Michael - Friday, September 05 2025 @ 05:36 AM EDT (#467560) #
The nice thing is pretty much no one in consideration is useless. Everyone is basically average or better, with multiple choices around that average level. This is a lot better than when there has been clear black hole regulars locked into place.
John Northey - Friday, September 05 2025 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#467563) #
Yeah, SS could be a lot of fun to watch in upcoming years. Like it hasn't been anyways with an all-star calibre guy there. Seeing if Nammala or Parker can take over in 2-3 years will be a lot of fun. Hopefully the Jays can bridge the gap from Bo to them well. I'm expecting they'll ask Gimenez about moving back to SS but he'll want to stay at 2B, then they'll debate the assorted internal stopgaps like Jimenez and Kasevich among others (also Clement maybe being put there). Can't fully write off resigning IKF to be at SS (bad idea imo, but not the worst). Heck, they might still resign Bo for a 5 year deal although I'm expecting an LAD/NYY battle for his services which will shoot his price far beyond what the Jays feel comfortable with. Hmmm... if the Yankees do sign him (ugh) maybe they dump Volpe (still just 24 this year and has a steady 80's OPS+ to go with solid defense which has declined probably partially due to the nightmare that playing in NY can be if you don't reach the levels expected of you). Very interesting winter coming, and even if Bo resigns the battle for short will continue with questions about moving him to the OF or elsewhere coming up as kids work their way through the system.

I'd love to see Bo have his full career here but not at SS. Robin Yount moved to LF at the age Bo will be next season, then to CF the following year and was quite solid and reached 3000 hits. Bo could do the same imo, but I doubt he'll be in CF as his speed has gone down a lot.
John Northey - Friday, September 05 2025 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#467564) #
Agreed Michael - no useless parts here right now, even France has been useful. I can see a role for anyone on the current roster, and even for most others on the 40 man if they were allowed to use the full 40 man in the playoffs. The team is in much better shape than 20/22/23 when they made the playoffs. 2015 used a slot for Dalton Pompey to pinch run (did a great job at it too) who wasn't too useful otherwise. Ryan Goins had a 83 OPS+ and you really didn't want him hitting (0-17 vs Texas). Justin Smoak was pretty much Ty France (105 OPS+ in '15 with good defense at 1B) but was an everyday player. Looking at other bench options for '15 and I'm not impressed for the most part. So this could be the most solid top to bottom team since the WS years.
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