It's wild that the Jays have a tired bullpen with 14 pitchers on the roster, but here we are. They would be well served to stay away from Lauer, Nance, Dominguez, and Rodriguez tonight, so they need a strong start from Scherzer and effective relief from Little, Varland, and Hoffman.

Lorenzen has remarkably even splits for both his career and season, so tonight's lineup can go any way. He hasn't struck out France in 14 AB.

KC did add at the deadline. It just didn't work out.
That happens quite a bit.

I have heard reports that John Schneider plans to bump Jose Berrios from the Sunday game and give The New Guy another start. I don't know if that's official. I shall keep my options open here.

That is official. He said after the game yesterday that the starters in KC will be Scherzer, Bieber, Yesavage.

That is official.

A quick edit and... I guess everyone wonders what you're talking about!

It's batting practice against Scherzer. He's giving the baserunnners a really good look into his glove and Royals are swinging like they know what's coming.

Wow

Well that was fun

Ugly

And the 6 man rotation is a killer again. Brayden Fisher warming up in first inning in 5-1 game. I just don't get it. Bring up Yesavage to start. Great. Move someone to the pen then!

Just love using my best reliever in a 7-1 game in the first. Just fantastic.

Well one of my wishes for tonight came true (from the last thread):

Rogers has been excellent this year. Hopefully he'll turn in a good performance against New York

Still three innings to go in an extremely close ballgame, though.

Mountcastle sac fly, now 2-0 Baltimore, runner still on second with one out. An O's win would go a long way toward easing the pain of Scherzer's start tonight.

The Jays went with a 6 man rotation, intentionally reducing the number of relievers on the team, and then proceeded to pull Yesavage after 68 pitches (5 innings) and Berrios after 78 pitches (4 innings). Going easy on Trey makes sense, he's super young, but if you're going to go with a 6 man rotation then you're going to have to extend the starters. Obviously not much you can do tonight. Max did not have it, and he absolutely should not be starting in a playoff game at this point.

They need to finish this game with enough relievers to cover tomorrow's.

It's not like they can call anyone up.

Middle of the 7th in Baltimore, 3-2 Orioles. Way too close for comfort. At least the O’s are leading. Do they still have any half-decent relievers to pitch the 8th and 9th?

The only move that I can see right now is putting Max on the IL and skipping his final start. This would likely make him ineligible for the ALDS, but he's not one of the top 4 starters right now anyway...

Or for the wildcard series.

Heineman for 3 innings?

Watch them send Fisher down for a fresh arm....

Baltimore just got a huge out: with runners on second and third with two out in the top of the eighth, Rico Garcia got Stanton to ground out and keep the score 4-2.

They need an arm for tomorrow. It’s either DFA Nance or option Fisher.

It’s crazy to think that the FO had a trainwreck of an offseason and somehow this team is still in first.

I’d try to get a couple of frames from Varland and then option him tomorrow.

Yankees lose. That helps the Blue Jays a lot at this point.

Yankees lose. Magic number will shrink.

With the Yankees losing, I think the best move would be to concede the game and let Heineman or Loperfido finish the 7th and 8th.

Lost a bit in the stench of Scherzer’s performance is another putrid performance from the batters. Lot of guys in the witness protection program all of a sudden.

Is a Max IL stint a possibility? I can't imagine even a team as overly generous to veterans as the Jays would consider using Max in the playoffs at this point, so there's really no harm in that other than ego. Demoting Fisher would be insanity at this point, and losing Nance for nothing wouldn't be ideal either. They love Varland more than they should so he's probably not even a consideration to send down. Not many other avenues.

Well, good news is this late in the season what matters is not just if you win or lose, but how the teams chasing you do. Yankees lose, Tigers lose so Jays that much closer to finishing with the best record in the AL. Red Sox beating the Rays (secondary right now, but they could still sneak into the picture), Guardians tied with Twins at the moment (they lose then that tiny bit closer to clinching a playoff slot), Astros/Mariners tied in standings so their end result is secondary (2-0 Seattle right now) but just need to stay ahead of both of them and the NYY & Red Sox to get a bye.

Dang this game sucks, but such is life. At least no real damage on the standings.

"Lost a bit in the stench of Scherzer’s performance is another putrid performance from the batters. Lot of guys in the witness protection program all of a sudden."

Since August 10th, only Loperfido (limited abs), Springer, Schneider, and Clement have hit. A few guys have been in the range of OK. In that time, Vlad, Kirk, Gimenez, France, and Heinemen have gone 19/103 with 1 2B and 0 HRs. .223 OBP and .194 SLG. That was going into tonight so it's only gone down.

Since August 10th, only Loperfido (limited abs), Springer, Schneider, and Clement have hit.

And Bo Bichette, who had hit .380/.453/.543 since that date. They may miss him a little.

The whole thought of popping champagne if they clinch a wild card spot makes me nauseous.

Now, hopefully Bieber stays away from the middle of the plate.

I meant September 10th, not August. Vlad was amazing before this stretch.

The Jays went with a 6 man rotation, intentionally reducing the number of relievers on the team

With 14 pitchers on the active roster, a 6-man rotation still leaves 8 (eight!) relief pitchers. They should be fine. (Well, maybe not after tonight's game...)

Berrios has been moved to the pen. The right move.

So...what we're seeing is that Berrios will exercise his opt out next year, Vlad is not as good without protection and Bo Bichette must be resigned?

The only move really. Who else would you move to the pen? Max Scherzer now has a 5.06 ERA and isn't showing any signs that he can figure out how he is giving away his pitches - so he wouldn't be good in the pen, heck, not good anywhere until he figures out what he is doing wrong and how to fix it.

Bassitt is getting better and better - 4.22 ERA last 30 games, 3.55 last 15, 3.19 last 7. Bad game vs Tampa last time out or those would be even better. I think he might be the #3 starter right now with Gausman #1, Bieber #2, Yesavage #4. Berrios and Scherzer both off the playoff roster for relievers.

As a reminder - a single game is meaningless in a 162 game season. In 1992 on August 28th the Jays lost 22-2 to Milwaukee who were just 4 1/2 back at the time. They got as close at 2 back with 2 games to go, but that was it. I think everyone here knows how that season ended. Also remember 10 of these runs came off our backup catcher, not off of real pitchers so those really don't count when one is debating if this is a good team or not. The offense stunk but such is life. It happens. The famous '27 Yankees were shutout once and scored just 1 run 10 times. It happens.

Friday September 19: New York, Detroit, Houston all lose.

Magic numbers for the Jays to finish ahead of the other top AL teams:

4 Detroit
5 New York
3 Boston
4 Seattle
4 Houston

8 games remaining.

Berrios will be making almost 25M the last 2 years. That's more than what Gausman is getting. I don't see him opting out.

Berrios is not opting out. Would be completely fine if he did because he isn't worth that contract. He'll suck it up and do his best in relief and go back to being a starter next season.

Berrios will either exercise his options or retire if he's too proud to work as a long reliever. Ideally, he gets traded in a bad contract for bad contract to a league less potent than the AL East. He could probably do better in the NL Central.

Scherzer is definitely tipping (i could see his fingers from the tv) but it sure looked like KC was relaying signs in a way that wasn't obvious like the Yankees. Witt ran in the first because he knew it was a slider. I knew he was going to run. He just can't hold his glove up at or above his head.

Huge mismatch today with Sugano (who of course dominated the Jays) vs the Yankees. I expect them to launch 3 maybe 4 homwrs against him. Rodon for the Yankees. Must win game for the Jays but they'll have to figure out a very good young pitcher.

I don't know if Scherzer was tipping, but everything to the first 3 batters was right down the middle. He started hitting the corners with the 4th but those were called balls and got Walker tossed out.

I walked away from the TV slowly after that.

Ironically, they got the rebroadcast right for that game because they were scared the team would be popping champagne off camera after a win.

I think Berrios has to throw ~140 innings next season to have his options be worth $50M over two years. Unless he’s a Cy Young candidate in 2026, there’s absolutely no chance he opts out. Either hope that there’s a trade that becomes available in the winter (not likely) or hope he can be a 4-4.50 ERA innings eater for 3 more years.

Of course Sugano dominated the Jays. It's not as if a major league pitchers with mid-4 ERAs can ever put together a good start against an offense going through a rough stretch.

The Yankees would never have this happen to them. They definitely wouldn't have been shutout by Sugano over 5 innings with eight strikeouts on April 28 when they were first place in the AL East.

While Berrios may be heading to the bullpen now, that's not to say that he wouldn't be back in the rotation next year. All of Bassitt, Scherzer and Bieber will be free agents (the latter presumably opting out).

The Blue Jays are favoured by oddsmakers to win today’s game (despite it being a road game and no Bichette).

I don't know if anybody noticed the color man on the broadcast calling the Jay's pitching coach, Paul Walker. He did it even after the play-by-play guy said Pete Walker. Maybe they don't listen to each other.

He did get it right towards the end of the broadcast and apologized. He said he was thinking of Fast and Furious.

I quit watching when it was 10-1 so I didn't miss much.

checked to see how trade deadline target Joe Ryan has been doing. 4.70 ERA in the second half.

Could be worse. Tigers have lost 8 of 9 to drop into the wild card round.

They’re also now only two up on Cleveland for the AL central. Who they play in Cleveland next week. Detroit might collapse out of a playoff spot entirely.

This Detroit Tigers collapse is going to be the stuff of legend. 

If I were a Tigers fan I don't know how I'd be breathing right now. They're going from having that division on lockdown all year to potentially falling out of the playoffs entirely.

Yeah they are rooting for the Twins to do something here. Detroit is in the road with a hard schedule and Cleveland is at home. I certainly don’t trust that Cleveland has 35% odds to detroits 92% looking at the schedule and how they’re playing. Cleveland is only down one in the loss column. Tigers I guess swept them earlier so it does make it a two game lead but yikes.

Nm ESPN tracker wasn’t showing all data. Cleveland is up 6-4 season series so yeah they get the tie breaker.

The AL postseason races are getting pretty interesting. Here are the Fangraphs AL team odds of making the playoffs:

Tor 100%
Sea 98.7%
NYY 99.5%
Det 87.1%
Bos 84.3%
Hou 80.5%
Cle 49.0%

Bassitt to the IL and Fluharty called up.

The Blue Jays currently have a 92.4% chance of securing a bye, per Fangraphs. Sure would be nice to make that 100% in the next few games, rather than wait till the very end of the regular season to find out what is going to happen.

The rotation has been in significant flux in recent weeks. The team went from having enviable SP depth to an apparent four-man rotation, with Lauer and Berrios in the bullpen and Bassitt on the IL. They're fortunate Yesavage was ready to step in as a relatively fresh and effective SP.

Smart move to put Bassitt on the IL, back-dated to yesterday. It means he's eligible for the ALDS and will only miss one start. Berrios could cover his turn next Wednesday or they could throw Scherzer out there again on four days' rest... or even use an opener and some combination of Lauer and Berrios in relief. More importantly, they get Fluharty back on the roster as a fresh arm and another LHP instead of relying on Little every time. There's going to be some tough playoff roster decisions to make...

Question: why wouldn't the team keep Berrios in the rotation until the end of the regular season, and then (after the manager and front office have assessed the state and health of the rotation) decide who should be starting games in the postseason?

The way management has handled this situation seems questionable. Berrios has been a loyal and reliable SP for years, and he has apparently been bumped from the rotation by a few relative newcomers (Scherzer, Bieber, and now Yesavage). I'm not surprised he's upset.

Berrios may be upset but he also doesn’t have an out-pitch - especially against lefties... and he admitted to being physically and mentally drained.

Bieber has been good this year…except for his propensity to give up home runs.

Solid, not scintillating.

This offense has gone 2024 at the wrong time. You can't win if you can't hit at all. Santander isn't a God-send or anything but can't see how having him back would hurt anything at this point.

These long balls are a bit of a distressing feature of the Blue Jays’ staff this year, but I’ve yet to see a team win by a 0 to negative-1 score, so I would suggest applying the defibrillators to the hitters.

Choke play by Clement there. Giminez would have got that.

Gimenez pinch hitting for Schneider is ummm.... A choice.

Suffice it to say that Gimenez was not the defibrillator I had in mind.

The team misses Bo. He made the lineup work properly. Now it’s in disarray.

The wildcard series is going to be a bloodbath.

Blue Jays face Wacha tomorrow. Then Boston for three games, with Crochet starting one of them. Then three against TB to end the season.

The Yankees have four more against Baltimore and three against the White Sox. Like the Blue Jays, the Yankees will play their final six games at home.

The Blue Jays are up 2 games in the division and hold the tiebreaker.

Which team has the advantage?

I figure that if the bats are going to have a slump, now is better than two weeks from now.

All the same, it may be time to summon the mighty Jobu. Make all the necessary offerings.

Could be Trump’s fault. There might be tariffs on bats entering the US, and the Jays decided to leave some of theirs at home.

At least Bradish has pitched capably in his four starts since returning from TJ surgery. Maybe he can slow the Yankees down tomorrow (and in the final series of the season).

As for Wacha, he’s had a bad September so far. Might the Blue Jays consider breaking out the bats against him tomorrow?

Toronto, don’t let our rival party like it’s 1987.

If the Jays go 4-3 the rest of the way then they should be fine, as in that scenario the Yankees would have to go 7-0 to win the division, which is possible vs BAL/CWS but still a lot to ask. Going anything worse than 4-3 gives the Yankees a realistic chance given their remaining schedule. A win tomorrow to salvage the series is pretty important.

Really wish the Jays had a better deadline. We could have got someone who could actually hit at deadline instead of France and IKF. Jays have now given 102 PAs to France with predictable results. IKF only has 26 PAs but has been even worse than expected (to be fair, if Bo is healthy, it's even fewer) .

Given what was on sale (and who actually moved) at the deadline, I’d give the FO an A for the deadline. Frankly, the Bieber deal looks inspired and might be the transaction that gives them a shot in a shortened playoff series. Where one can look for shortcomings is this past winter. The headline moves all have a malodorous quality to them.

To be fair, nobody is hitting well lately except George Springer. It seems like everybody is pressing a bit and swinging at pitches they normally wouldn't. The last two games in particular there's been a ton of weak contact resulting in easy groundballs and soft fly outs. I'm just hoping that nobody expects Santander to be a difference maker after missing the majority of the season.

Time for a mental reset. We wanted meaningful games in September. Well, the Blue Jays have the best record in the AL and are in first place by two games, with a tiebreaker advantage over the second place team, with seven games left in the season (one road game and six home games). The front office did its part by acquiring a strong SP for the team and a couple of decent relievers. Yesavage soared through the minors to give them another good SP. All of the potentially catastrophic injuries in recent weeks (to Kirk, Springer, Vladdy and Bo) have turned out to be relatively minor.

In short — we could not have asked for a better Sept. 21 situation than this one. Now the team has to finish what it started. They can do this, or they can fold and fade into obscurity. Their choice.

Santander, Gimenez, Hoffman, Scherzer, and Garcia have a combined fWAR of 0.0 this season. Straw is at 1.7 so he's the only off-season pickup that worked out. The off-season is definitely where the missteps happened. They could have done better at the deadline, but outside of trading for Duran, I don't think there was a realistic difference making move.

With that said, adding IKF and France were definitely not going to move the needle, and probably had more potential to hurt the team if Schneider gave them playing time.

I don’t know how people can legitimately complain about the trade deadline. Getting Bieber was a coup. Varland and Dominguez have been useful. France was helpful when Vladdy was injured with a hamstring injury, and he is helping VGJ get off his feet from time to time so that he can stay healthy. He has made some key plays on defense that a lesser first baseman would not have made.

The reason the team has yet to clinch a bye is because a bunch of hitters on the team are slumping at the same time, and Bo got injured in an unfortunate play (which has already been discussed at length).

Thanks Nigel for the realistic reminder - there was not a lot of quality available at the deadline, and we got what might be the best item available in Bieber.

• Detroit: Morton (7.09 ERA 9 starts), Enns (5.60 ERA), Montero (4.48 ERA 11 start, 8 relief), Finnegan (0.59 ERA 13 G 15 IP in relief but just 1 game in September so far, gave up 1 run in a loss), Paddick (6.12 ERA in 6 starts, 5 relief). So outside of Finnegan a flop, and he was hurt most of September when they desperately needed anything good.
• NYY: Bird (27 ERA in 2 games, sent down 6.75 ERA in AAA), Doval (5.40 ERA in 16 IP), Bednar (2.61 ERA 20 2/3 IP 8 sv 3 blown), Peraza (27 OPS+, ugh), Caballero (149 OPS+ in 35 G), Slater (-41 OPS+), Rosario (148 OPS+ in 14 G), McMahon (75 OPS+ at 3B in 48 G)
• Seattle: Suárez (big target for everyone, 97 OPS+ 0.4 bWAR), Ferguson (110 ERA+ in 21 G 18 IP), Naylor (129 OPS+ in 49 G 2 bWAR),
• Boston: Matz (1.86 ERA in 18 G 19 IP), May (5.40 ERA in 5 starts, 1 relief)

That gives you an idea of what was out there. Not a lot. I could go through a lot more teams but those are ones we need to worry about imo. Suarez has been OK for Seattle, but not what was expected. Naylor a great get, Matz surprisingly effective as a reliever. Detroit mostly flopped badly. NYY had Bednar, Rosario, and Caballero work out while the rest were different degrees of ugh. Bieber's 122 ERA+ is damn solid for a starter, especially considering he is recovering from TJ surgery. Given how the rotation has been going his get might be critical. Note: 6.35 ERA for Khal Stephen post trade (all in AA) but appears to be more bad luck than anything (11 1/3 IP 17 H 2 BB 11 SO 0 HR - wonder if Cleveland has poor defense in AA).

Now, if the Jays had gotten Bednar I'd have been a LOT happier (and Matz given our LH relief headaches at times - Little has great stats but damn does he make me nervous every time).

It's shaping up to an eventful final week - Tigers, Jays, Astros all division leaders for weeks are collapsing and likely to be WC teams and one team may miss the playoffs entirely and the Reds have a great shot to steal a WC spot from the Mets.

Interesting lineup - goes R-L-R-L-R-L-R-L-S - about as mixed up a lineup as possible. Barger at 3B, Schneider-Varsho-Lukes OF, Heineman catching, Clement at 2B, Gimenez at SS to cover the shifting slots. Springer DH, Vlad 1B of course.

Great catch, soupman. Some people were pounding the table for Ryan, and he has a 4.99era since the trade deadline. Maybe he'll be good the next couple of years.

Saturday September 20: Losses for Detroit and Houston. Seattle moves past Detroit for the 2nd Bye.

Magic numbers for the Jays to finish ahead of the other top AL teams:

5 New York
3 Boston
4 Seattle
3 Detroit
3 Houston

7 games remaining.

Detroit's deadline trade for Charlie Morton a bust.
Morton DFA

Is it a "great catch" to point out that Joe Ryan has struggled somewhat since the trade deadline?

Is it also a "great catch" to highlight that Jacob deGrom -- the other half of the Joe Ryan argument -- has been awful in September (5.71 ERA, 5 HR allowed in 17.1 innings)?

In the heat of a pennant race, does anyone really care about these stale gotcha moments, beyond a couple of posters? Wouldn't it be more enjoyable to just let it go and enjoy the postseason race? I know that's what I'll be doing.

The guy I really wanted, Alcantara, has been solid since the deadline:

58.2ip 46h 13bb 58k 3.84era

And that includes two terrible starts in early August. Since then, in 7 starts:

46.2ip 30h 8bb 49k 2.70era

And if anyone was wondering why September was isolated for Degrom, it's because he was good in August.

It's pretty funny that you love regaling us with tales of your great comments, but can't handle the flip side (that aren't even addressed directly at you).

Go Jays! Big game today that they really need to win to set up taking the division at home.

Great post and call out Greenfrog.

On a different and general note- Why the negative posters who must find pleasure in imagining the worst possible outcomes? Why else would they come here to post about that and never post when the opposite actually (not possibly) happens? The Blue Jays are in first and you have a poster that says nothing for the entire time. Then suddenly when there's a very low chance that they can collapse and finish outside the same poster feels the need to call that out. Gotta be the most annoying person to travel with, likely always pointing out the meaningless negativity to people enjoying the beauty.l without ever realizing people don't care if you're right or wrong. You're annoying!

We wonder why the world is going off the rails in so many areas. Maybe it's because some people don't know how to appreciate anything. Must be severely abused Blue Jays fans equivalent to Will Hunting. Will take a mountain of luck to make them see their ways of self sabotage. They must be very annoyed that the team ISN'T imploding.

92-93,

Maybe he's moving on and not making those call outs to himself anymore. Better to give the benefit of the doubt.

Also his point still stands for me because deGrom has been terrible in September in a critical race.

Lastly, Alcantara was reportedly taken off the market by the Marlins after "outrageous," asking prices according to other teams.

An A seems kind of generous, Nigel. Bieber was a fantastic deal, and we all said that at the time. Dominguez has been okay, and Varland has been bad. We might be lamenting for years that the front office didn't go all-in a bit more to augment their chances. I know I wanted them to add a hitter, and it's certainly looking like that would have helped considering what Lukes and Barger have done since the break. I'm not a fan of only looking at the players who were moved, because we really have no idea what other opportunities the Jays had that were passed up because of the seemingly prohibitive cost.

Vlad looks so lost right now. Just weak contact. Need him to get going soon.

Sure, the team could have used another bat. Just as they needed one more in the offseason. But context matters. Where were all the bats that the Jays should have gotten that would really have moved the needle?

That inning had almost all the elements of a successful Jays scoring inning for 2025.

Davis Schneider never looks smooth out there in the outfield but he usually makes the play.

Trye Yesavage has saved this season.

I’m not sure I understand the pitch calling this inning. It’s about 90% splitters. It’s a good pitch but I don’t think you can abandon the FB.

Looks like he got burned with one bad call but year weird pitch sequencing.

Trye Yesavage has saved this season.

Hopefully, but the Royals have a whole arsenal of bloops and bleeders to make us sweat.

Massive, massive answer by the bats that inning. We can relax again… a little.

This should be a double play. It won't be, but it should be.

How is replay so bad?? That was clearly a catch. After clearly fan interference last week. How is this even possible??

Wow. That’s one of the worst replay calls I’ve seen. In what freaking universe is that not a catch? Disgraceful.

Did they call Replay in New York? Or just New York?

How does replay get that wrong? After initially being outraged, I'm now unsurprised they made that call. Even Bob Witt had to come back from the dugout.

Is that 2 BRUTAL indefensible replay calls vs the Jays in aboit a week?

It clearly was in Varsho’s glove before it hits the ground, and he never lost control of it. An absurdly terrible call.

“Maybe he's moving on and not making those call outs to himself anymore. Better to give the benefit of the doubt”

Thanks, dalimon. Nigel pointed out that there has been a negative vibe shift on this site in recent months/years. I’ve noticed that some posters have left the site for other forums. These tendencies may be part of the reason why. Why bother participating in a supposedly fun diversion if people are going to harbour grudges and passive-aggressively target you, sometimes repeatedly, for your views or arguments months or years later?

Sometimes I’m right about my predictions or observations about MLB, and sometimes I’m wrong. And that’s fine with me. As Mike Green said, there are way more important things going on in the world right now.

As I’ve said for years - the Yankees cheat:)

Jays need to formally protest this game now that tje run has scored

Surprised the Royals didn’t challenge that line out DP, New York clearly would’ve overturned it.

Very similar to the Tampa HR call in that it was so obvious and the official replay umpires refused to overturn the call. Both times costing multiple runs too. Hopefully, same result in game for Jays.

Umpire scorecards unlikely to track that, but that was such a huge run EV change in difference from 2 out no one on to 2 on no one out. Crazy replay not to be overturned with the clear catch.

One thing that's frustrating about the current state of the world, is that it's not impossible to imagine someone at the Presodent's office applying pressure to make sure a "foreign" team doesn't win. Likely? No. But not something to immeditely dismiss if there was any noise about it.( I do NOT think this has happened).

Interesting idea to catch KC by surprise but don’t think I love that steal attempt by Guerrero Jr there. You’ve got Barger in a hitter’s count against a RH… Royals are sure to go with the lefty now next inning to face him and (presumably) Lukes.

"pressure to make sure a "foreign" team doesn't win ..."

Surely not the strangest area where he has tried to get his way via a naked power play. I suppose one advantage to living with this US prez is that your wildest imagination at times can only barely surpass what has actually already happened.

No one doubt the power of the Clement!

... or the genius of Giménez!

That was a really easy eighth for Lauer— I would’ve been inclined to let him start the ninth, but I know that’s not how this goes…

Big win against the Royals and Umps. Magic number for East is 4!

Play the game, have fun, and try to win it all.

Jays in the playoffs after a 1 year break! Woohoo! Too long a wait for it. Let's hope now for the first playoff win since 2016, first playoff series win since 2016, first time in WS since 1993, first WS win since 1993.

Lexomatic, I have to disagree with you - I don't think that scenario is far fetched at all - I can envision a tweet on Truth Social and all it takes is a sympathetic home plate umpire - I remember when the Raptors won the NBA championship, ESPN personality Steven A. Smith ( who has no power and little influence) said he hope Canada never wins again - imagine if somebody with immense power and influence tweeted that in the present climate.

The playoffs were a formality for weeks but nice to get that mathematically clinched.

The next clinch is the big one.

Chris Bassitt is earning $22m this year - I don't think he's ever had a QO - The QO this year will be about $22m, do the Jays offer a QO to Bassitt?

That was a huge game to win, but I got to admit I get nervous every time Little or Hoffman enter a game.

Regarding the terrible call on Varsho's catch, the replay room has to find reasonable doubt to overturn a call on the field. The call on the field was a naked eye decision on a play that happened in a split second. Dan Shulman tried to explain what might be the reasoning in New York, that they couldn't see the ball for a second and that maybe a small portion of the ball touched the ground even though it was in the glove.

The point is, there was no reasonable proof that Varsho didn't catch the ball cleanly ( which it sure looked like he did. The ball hit the glove on the fly) so why are they relying on what the umpire THINKS he saw when they can view the catch frame by frame and say, " We cannot see any evidence that it was not a good catch "?

Bassitt declined a qualifying offer from the Mets the offseason we signed him.

The Blue Jays lost their 2023 second round pick when they signed. Bassitt.

As much as I wouldn't put anything past the current US administration (here in CA, we're often the target of their ire), I also wouldn't be surprised if (assuming there WAS replay "interference"), someone like Gary Bettman was involved. He's been obviously and blatantly anti-Canadian on the NHL side of things for decades now..

I'm actually only somewhat upset by the replay miss on Lukas' near-catch. I can see there was room for doubt on that one. Today was almost as egregiously bad as the balls and strikes calls have been for the last 3-5 games. I mean, OBVIOUS balls called strikes and vice versa.

Obviously, we all want more but still pretty great to see this team make the playoffs. A much better season than I, or most people predicted.

Fun year with the best moments still to come (hopefully). For those stressed about division titles, just look to teams ahead of the Jays July 1st - Detroit, Houston, NYM. The 3 of them are now fighting to make the playoffs after looking like locks or near locks back then. Talk about painful.

Mix in the emergence of a few kids here - Barger has slumped from his peak, but still looks like an everyday player (106 wRC+ 2.0 fWAR). Yesavage had a few issues, but at 21 is looking damn fine. Fluharty at 23 might be a good reliever going forward, same for Fisher at 24. Vlad & Kirk signed long term at 26, Schneider at 26 looking good again (129 wRC+). Lots of hope for the future as well as the present. Bo will be interesting (safe to say the Jays QO him at $22 mil) this winter, as will Bieber (easy QO) and others (safe to expect the Jays to hunt for at least 1 starter with Bieber/Bassitt/Scherzer all free agents). I expect the Jays will also hunt for more relievers but not much else.

Don't think Jays can QO Bieber because of trade

As we see Yesavage have early success here, it is worth reflecting that there ain't no such thing as a pitching prospect as former can't miss Jays prospect Nate Pearson is possibly about to be released/minor league free agent: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/09/cubs-designate-nate-pearson-for-assignment.html

Sunday September 21: A win for the good guys, and losses for Boston, Detroit, and Houston.

Magic numbers for the Jays to finish ahead of the other top AL teams:

4 New York
1 Boston
3 Seattle
1 Houston
1 Detroit
1 Cleveland

6 games remaining, Tuesday-Sunday for all the teams that matter.

On Saturday Cleveland pulled past Houston for the 3rd wild card spot, owning the tiebreaker over the Astros on head-to-head record. The Guardians and Blue Jays split their 6 games this season. In the extremely unlikely event of a tie Cleveland would place ahead of Toronto courtesy of the very dumb 2nd tiebreaker: intradivision record.

Congratulations to the Blue Jays Organization for getting back to the postseason!

Hopefully the Baseball Gods are taking notes after these unfair replay decisions.

So it basically comes down to Toronto vs NYY for the division and league regular season titles. Seattle could sneak in there for league title, but odds are it'll be a TO vs NY battle.

Now with Buffalo's season over the big question becomes do they call up Santander or not? 0-2 with 2 walks his final game, overall in AAA 10 G 38 PA 219/342/469, last 5 games 214/313/500 so he wasn't getting a lot better either. Basically if put on the roster it is based on a hope he finds his way in the majors. I'd dump Ty France if a slot was needed (down to a 91 wRC+ as a Jay now, the magic pixie dust he started with wore off) as they pretty much cover the same slot outside of the fact France is a better 1B than Santander. But I'd expect Loperfido to be sent back to AAA instead.

It’s been a fun ride in 2025. Ups and downs, typical of a 162 game grind, but ultimately reached the post season with a chance for the best record in the AL. Amazing accomplishment given the buzz (or lack thereof) for this team heading into the season. Step 1 is complete. Many steps to go but the first one is important.

Calling up Santander is a no brainer for me. Maybe he doesn’t pan out this season but this lineup badly needs home run power, especially in the playoffs where the chances of stringing a bunch of hits together is less likely. Put him at DH/LF and hope he has an October hot streak.

The second tiebreaker should be the record against the other team's division.

Without a big payroll increase the Jays won't have much money to spend for next season, so even without the QO they need to aim higher (Bieber?) than a guy like Bassitt for 22M should they actually have that to spend. They may need to roll with Gausman, Yesavage, Berrios, Lauer, Manoah, and some bargain bin signings, and re-assess at the deadline. There will be a huge hole in the lineup that needs addressing if they let Bichette walk.

Was away this weekend (just glimpsed a 20-1 score as my network dropped) so there was some panic when i looked last night.....but very relieved to see they clinched.

It's been a very good season, but I really really really want that 1st place spot.

And if the jays wanted to clinch it by sweeping the Red Sox out of a playoff position, I wouldn't mind that at all.

I’ll jump on as well in saying that this season has been the most fun and interesting to watch in quite some time. From the unexpected contributions up and down the roster, young players showcasing some exciting skills, the improbable comebacks… the general vibe around the players themselves seems and feels very different as well. This team has been a ‘must watch’ event the entire summer and it’s awesome to have that feeling again.

Who knows when and how this all ends but I like their chances as much as anybody’s, which is all you can really hope for in late September. Should be quite a ride ahead.

Now let’s get that division! 3-3 would likely get it done, but why leave it to the unpredictable whims of the not-so-good Orioles and quite-not-good White Sox. Sending a panic through Red Sox nation in Boston is also its own reward, heh.

For 2026 luxury tax payroll Cot's has them at $207.440 right now (assumes no free agent resigning and some kind of estimate for arbitration - without arb you get $187.773 mil for 2026). Varsho is the big one, I'd guess $15 mil (raise from $8.2), then Lauer, Manoah, Clement, Sandlin, Lukes, Schneider, Francis, Heineman, Burr, Nance, Tate. Coming off the books are Bassitt, Bo, Scherzer, Dominguez, France, IKF, Turnbull, Swanson, Lovelady ($1 mil in the toilet there), Pop and others who appeared to be minor in costs relatively speaking.

Final estimate is $278,787,568 for 2025 (leads to a $9,692,022 penalty) just shy of the 3rd threshold (thus avoid having first draft pick moved back 10 slots).

So based on that the Jays might have a LOT of spending room - up to $70 mil, or less (mixing in arbitration) which could put it at $40 mil. So enough for a high end starting pitcher (Bieber, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Michael King, Brandon Woodruff, Zac Gallen generally seen as the best available) or to hold onto Bo but not both. It'll be interesting to see what the Jays choose to do this winter and how free agents react to how the Jays did this year.

the story a couple weeks ago was that Max Scherzer was woo'd when the brass told him they were "all in for this year". I'm not going to assume payroll will remain at this level until i see it happen.

With the Yankees playing White Sox and Orioles with nothing to play for, you have to assume they will go 5-1/6-0 over the rest of the season. That means the Jays need to go 4-2. Unfortunately, they are facing the Red Sox' best pitchers: Giolito, Crochet, and Bello. I'd be happy with 2/3 which would mean they would need 2/3 against Tampa at home which is doable.

Plausible Best Lineup using...


...This Year's Stats:


1. DH Springer 559pa, .335babip, .395obp, 162wrc+, 5.5war650
2. 1B Guerrero 656pa, .318babip, .389obp, 142wrc+, 4.1war659
3. SS Bichette 628pa, .342babip, .357obp, 133wrc+, 3.9war650
4. LF Schneider 216pa, .283babip, .361obp, 130wrc+, 3.9war650
5. CF Varsho 248pa, .243babip, .286obp, 125wrc+, 5.5war650
6. C Alejandro 486pa, .299babip, .352obp, 113wrc+, 5.6war650
7. 3B Barger 481pa, .289babip, .300obp, 106wrc+, 2.7war650
8. 2B Clement 566pa, .298babip, .315obp, 98wrc+, 3.6war650
9. RF Lukes 420pa, .267babip, .317obp, 97wrc+, 2.2war650

B. UT France 490pa, .300babip, .320obp, 92wrc+, 1.2war650
B. OF Straw 290pa, .306babip, .311obp, 89wrc+, 3.8war650
B. IF Gimenez 353pa, .238babip, .284obp, 69wrc+, 1.7war650
B. C Heineman 170pa, .348babip, .364obp, 123wrc+, 2.1war650

X. UT Santander 209pa, .218babip, .273obp, 63wrc+, -2.8war650
X. OF Loperfido 103pa, .438babip, .382obp, 150wrc+, 4.4war650
X. IF Falefa 454pa, .317babip, .298obp, 74wrc+, 0.9war650
X. C Pinto 0pa

XX. OF Clase 112pa, .271babip, .288obp, 68wrc+, -1.7war650
XX. IF Jimenez 32pa, .050babip, .129obp, -20wrc+, -6.1war650






Using Fangraphs' Combined Rest of Season Depth Chart Projections:


1. DH Springer .345obp, 124wrc+
2. 1B Guerrero .378obp, 144wrc+
3. SS Bichette .339obp, 122wrc+
4. LF Santander .310obp, 109wrc+
5. C Alejandro .350obp, 114wrc+
6. CF Varsho .294obp, 102wrc+
7. 2B Schneider .326obp, 107wrc+
8. 3B Barger .308obp, 103wrc+
9. RF Lukes .329obp, 103wrc+

B. UT Clement .305obp, 94wrc+
B. OF Straw .301obp, 75wrc+
B. IF Gimenez .313obp, 93wrc+
B. C Heineman .320obp, 88wrc+

X. UT France .325obp, 100wrc+
X. OF Loperfido .301obp, 92wrc+
X. IF Falefa .296obp, 77wrc+
X. C Valenzuela .269obp, 62wrc+

XX. OF Clase .289obp, 79wrc+
XX. IF Jimenez .324obp, 94wrc+

meh, the rays and royals had nothing to play for and they still kept playing.

Jays go 3-3 and all they need is one yankees loss to finish first.

If they can't beat Bello and Giolito at home and/or manage to go 3-3 over the next 6 games, they don't deserve the bye anyway. The nightmare scenario is needing to use Gausman on Sunday and then not winning the division, which would mean he can't pitch in the wild card series unless it's on 3 days rest.

Assuming Santander is healthy, adding him to the roster is a no-brainer decision.

Adding to the chorus that Santander absolutely should be activated. And I think it’s clearly France that should get bumped rather than Loperfido.

Plausible best lineups considering R/L matchups...


This year's stats:

1. DH Springer 171 / DH Springer 134
2. 1B Guerrero 134 / 1B Guerrero 170
3. 2B Bichette 131 / 2B Bichette 142
4. LF Schneider 152 / LF Schneider 112
5. CF Varsho 141 / SS Clement 154
6. C Alejandro 119 / C Alejandro 98
7. 3B Barger 114 / 3B Barger 78
8. RF Lukes 97 / RF Lukes 97
9. SS Gimenez 79 / CF Straw 92

B. UT France 93 / UT France 89
B. OF Straw 86 / OF Varsho 62
B. IF Clement 73 / IF Gimenez 36
B. C Heineman 96 / C Heineman 188

X. UT Santander 68 / UT Santander 47
X. OF Loperfido 157 / OF Loperfido 122
X. IF Falefa 86 / IF Falefa 40
X. C

XX. OF Clase 78 / OF Clase 44
XX. IF Jimenez -100 / IF Jimenez 26



Last 2 years stats:


1. DH Springer 134 / DH Springer 103
2. 1B Guerrero 150 / 1B Guerrero 169
3. SS Bichette 114 / SS Bichette 100
4. LF Santander 115 / LF Santander 106
5. CF Varsho 107 / CF Varsho 111
6. C Alejandro 107 / C Alejandro 97
7. 3B Barger 103 / 3B Clement 117
8. RF Lukes 105 / RF Straw 91
9. 2B Schneider 107 / 2B Schneider 79

B. UT Clement 87 / UT Barger 55
B. OF Straw 86 / OF Lukes 90
B. IF Gimenez 89 / IF Gimenez 55
B. C Heineman 90 / C Heineman 174

X. UT France 92 / UT France 94
X. OF Loperfido 100 / OF Loperfido 76
X. IF Falefa 94 / IF Falefa 56
X. C Pineo 166 / C Pinto 50

XX. OF Clase 87 / OF Clase 53
XX. IF Jimenez 74 / IF Jimenez 109




Last 3 years stats:


1. DH Springer 123 / DH Springer 102
2. 1B Guerrero 138 / 1B Guerrero 154
3. 2B Bichette 116 / 2B Bichette 116
4. RF Santander 116 / RF Santander 112
5. LF Schneider 111 / LF Schneider 107
6. 3B Barger 103 / 3B Clement 117
7. C Alejandro 102 / C Alejandro 100
8. CF Varsho 95 / CF Varsho 107
9. SS Gimenez 89 / SS Gimenez 75

B. UT Lukes 104 / UT Lukes 82
B. OF Straw 74 / OF Straw 78
B. IF Clement 90 / IF Barger 55
B. C Heineman 85 / C Heineman 191

X. UT France 98 / UT France 98
X. OF Loperfido 100 / UT Loperfido 76
X. IF Falefa 90 / IF Falefa 63
X. C Pinto 113 / C Pinto 72

XX. OF Clase 87 / OF Clase 53
XX. IF Jimenez 74 / IF Jimenez 109

you might be right Mike, but it could very well be (likely be?) that Santander's super low babip in his brief stint this year was just bad babip luck.

all his numbers looked very good other than that babip, and he was still a 117wrc+ with that low babip.

15.8 bb% - excellent obviously, but also a sign that AAA pitchers were avoiding him

15.8 k% - also excellent

5.7 swst% - paired with the K-rate also excellent, and shows that he wasn't just chasing and hacking down there

.250iso - elite power as usual


looking at his batted ball numbers there, his average exit velo was very poor at 84.4 but his max EV of 11.5 is right in line with his usual number. His linedrive rate of 23.15 was very good. The culprit here seems to have been a ridiculous number of popups - a 57.1iffb% which is just silly and obviously fluky.


the truth is we signed an extremely flawed player who's only asset is power....but he still is usually a good hitter with that toolset and IMO there's nothing in his AAA performance this year that makes me think that it's impossible that he's back and healthy again.

I don't like France, but for the last six games, I'd send down Loperfido for Santander because it would mean cutting France entirely and I'd rather hold on to him just in case of a Vlad injury and its not as if Loperfido has a lot of room to play with Schneider and Santander ahead of him.

I mean his career babip is .260, his previous 3yrs it was .257. Yes the last one was his lowest ever at .225 but that was also by far his best season overall, so there was a tradeoff happening there.

maybe the couple hundred PAs of .218 are a continuation of a trend but I thought we were saying he was seriously injured for that.

a .240 babip next year would be the 2nd worst of his career in terms of actual full seasons.

but even then - he had one of the best years of his career last year with a .225babip, so we know a low babip isn't killer for him anyways.

I am no Santander fan in any way but if the injury is dealt with he has to play imo.

I for one am disappointed that Santnader didnt do a better job of staying in shape while on the IL. A shoulder injury doesn’t prevent you from doing cardio... and he knew he potentially had a shot at playing in the playoffs.

Yeah you might lose France but the Jays already have enough slow-as-molasses runners that they can ill afford to add Santander and lose Loperfido in the final 6. IKF should go but you can't afford to lose him with absolutely nothing at AAA to play the infield if someone else goes down with injury... France has value at 1B but others can play there too and he's a negative at the plate. Maybe someone claims him to block Toronto from resigning him to an milb deal but no one could use him in the playoffs against them.

I’m not convinced Santander helps. I expected more from his time in Buffalo. Maybe that’s not fair, but I would prefer someone who is ramped up to someone who is not, and I haven’t seen anything that makes me feel we won’t get a repeat of April. I also think continuity matters, and that the people who contributed to the team making it deserve more leeway.

Either way, I expect them to do what they think is in the best interest of the team. If they think Santander can contribute more than France or Loperfido, so be it.

I'd like to see Santander up for the next six games at least. If he looks terrible, you don't need to add him to playoff roster but if he looks OK, then you add him. He was a very consistently good hitter the previous three years so the beginning of this season seems more like abberation to me but there's a question if he can get back to where he needs to be in the next week or will take off-season.

Cot's has France with 2 options, how is he lost?

Rosters go back to 26 for playoffs, 1 arm 1 bat go down.
Add Bichette and Bassitt another arm and bat go down, enough depth to lose Dillon Tate and add Santander to 40, to add to roster lose another bat.

And my brain hurts now but no blisters on my fingers

Agreed, I'd call up Santander now (if seen as being fit and ready) and, given roster flexibility concerns, would send down Loperfido to make space (for now). Gotta see if he can help vs ML pitching, and the Jays are already in the playoffs so the risk is just home field advantage - significant, but not a killer risk and if he can help then he'd help get that.

Come playoffs, you can't carry Santander, Vlad, and France as all 3 are limited defensively and that weakens the bench but you can also shift guys off easily enough without losing them during that time.

France has no options left - he is over 5 years service time so even if they didn't use them all, he cannot be sent down anymore without his consent at the very least.

Playoff rosters are messy - I'm looking at old ones now for the Jays and in '23 they used 11 hitters total, 8 relievers, 2 starting pitchers in 2 games. '22 was the same but 1 less reliever. It'll be interesting to see how differently Schneider manages this time.

Well either way we'll be getting a nice look at Santander this last week to make a better decision on. If he's healthy he still projects as (easily) a good starting bat so I don't see how he could be left out - or why anyone would really want him to be given the alternatives like France and Falefa.

And I know people are still in love with Loperfido's early hot streak but we have to be realistic with him - he's got a 90wrc+ in his most recent call up, and a 95wrc+ since the trade deadline (in 45pa - still with a sky high .385babip too). That 192wrc+ with a .474babip that he put up in July is probably not coming back.


Loperfido career by month

APR '24: 5pa, .333babip, 9wrc+
MAY '24: 38pa, .611babip, 154wrc+
JUN '24: 22pa, .385babip, 94wrc+
JUL '24: 58pa, .226babip, 44wrc+
AUG '24: 82pa, .286babip, 77wrc+
SEP '24: 57pa, .323babip, 42wrc+
JUL '25: 58pa, .474babip, 192wrc+
AUG '25: 31pa, .471babip, 97wrc+
SEP '25: 14pa, .222babip, 90wrc+

Career: 365pa, .364babip, 95wrc+
AAA: 700pa, .326babip, 108wrc+

FG Proj: 7pa, .318babip, 92wrc+


3a couple of nice big babip-infused months after his first callups of each year, but i figure pitchers decided to just stop throwing him meatballs after that, and I doubt he gets many meatballs in the playoffs either.

I guess I am putting more weight on the Bye than some people. To me, it’s better to have the 90 on the squad than the guy who to-date has been a 59. A lot of weight is being put on career numbers, but to me all that’s relevant is what someone can contribute in tomorrow’s game. I’m not convinced that he has shown he is a better option than Joey or France are right now, and I think we all agree Santander is not at his best.

Full disclosure I haven't read all posts in this thread. I want to see Santander added to the team. I wouldn't rely on minor league stats. If we relied on spring training stats then George Springer would have been cut before the season started.

the funny thing is even if we do want to read everything into 38pa of AAA after months off......still a 117wrc+ is actually pretty goood! especially with that low a babip.

The Blue Jays ignored my helpful advice on how to handle the start of the Shane Bieber era (running some tandem starts), but I'm here to help again. Here's how they should deploy their starters for the final week:

Tue: Gausman
Wed: Scherzer, with Berríos prepared for a long relief outing.
Thu: Bieber
Fri: Lauer (60-70 pitches?) 
Sat: Yesavage 
Sun: MANOAH. Unless of course the division is still on the line, in which case it's Gausman's start. 

I mean, maybe Manoah if the Jays are already stuck in the wildcard spot but he was averaging 90 mph with his fastball and below-average control at AAA.

Jays probably have to go 4-2... New York is on a heater, at home, playing AAA calibre teams and a collection of No. 5/6/7 starters... and the umpire crews appear to have no interest in a level playing field. I definitely see a 5-1 or 6-0 week in New York's future.

Imagine how nuts the NYY fandom would go if they slump this week (say, 2-4 or something). It'd be fun to watch from afar.

Yanks are 9-5 against BAL & CHX this year.

Jays are 10-10 against BOS & TB this year.

9-5 & 10-10 translate to 3.9 Yankee wins, 3 Jays.

First place. Not sure if that’s how these things work…

You know what would be fun, a four man rotation poll. What do BB think would be the ideal order and the names for a four man playoff rotation.

Great work by ESPN:

"The Blue Jays can clinch a first-round bye and home field advantage in the ALDS with a win on Tuesday."  Ummm...really?  That would make me very happy, were it true.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46081635/mlb-2025-playoff-tracker-clinch-scenarios-postseason-bracket-schedule

If the Jays win 2 out of 3 vs. BOS, I’d give Berríos that first game against TB. We know what he can do in the big game spotlight (even if the team doesn’t fully appreciate it), and I haven’t written him off for this year. Heck, I’d probably be starting him over Scherzer tomorrow. Berrios has been the better pitcher over the last month.

the big question of the starters is obviously Max. You know they want to start him but he's making it near impossible to.

I think with one more good outing, Yesavage becomes my #3.

With bassitt as the #4, if he's healthy.

No Santander callup yet.

Lineup

1. DH Springer
2. CF Varsho
3. 1B Guerrero
4. 3B Barger
5. C Kirk
6. RF Lukes
7. LF Schneider
8. SS Gimenez
9. 2B Clement